This is the backup to my July Marketingland article found here. http://marketingland.com/scaremongering-in-digital-182044 There is a flaw in this and every theory on the size of the revenue loss in the blocked web, a percentage of folks who block ads will never directly correlate to the amount of revenue lost. Some types of ads are not blocked, by some blocker and not by others and there are many cases where this is true. I look forward to understanding the true number.

1. Annual Spend by Ad Format Forecast Ad Blocking Estimates
Ad Format 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Ad Format 2020** 16% 21% 25%
Total Yearly Spend $31.7 $36.6 $42.8 $49.5 $59.6 $65.7 $72.9 $81.2 $90.9 $102.3 Total Yearly Spend $102.3 Ad Block Ad Block Ad Block
Search $14.9 $16.8 $18.4 $18.8 $20.3 $21.5 $22.8 $24.1 $25.6 $27.1 Search $55.8
Display/Banner $6.7 $7.7 $8.1 $7.9 $7.7 $7.7 $7.7 $7.7 $7.7 $7.7 Display/Banner $34.4 $5.50 $7.04 $8.59
Classifieds $2.5 $2.6 $2.6 $2.5 $3.0 $3.2 $3.3 $3.5 $3.8 $4.0 Classifieds $0.0
Mobile $1.6 $3.3 $7.3 $12.4 $20.9 $24.6 $29.0 $34.3 $40.4 $47.7 Mobile $0.0
Digital Video $1.9 $2.2 $3.0 $3.5 $4.2 $5.2 $6.4 $8.0 $9.9 $12.2 Digital Video $12.2
Lead Generation $1.6 $1.8 $1.7 $2.0 $1.8 $1.8 $1.8 $1.8 $1.8 $1.8 Lead Generation $0.0
Sponsorship $1.3 $0.7 $0.9 $1.0 $0.6 $0.6 $0.6 $0.6 $0.5 $0.5 Sponsorship $0.0
Rich Media $1.3 $1.1 $1.3 $1.5 $1.2 $1.2 $1.2 $1.2 $1.2 $1.2 Rich Media $0.0
Email $0.3 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 Email $0.0
Share of Spend by Ad Format* Forecast
Ad Format 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Search 47% 46% 43% 38% 34% 33% 31% 30% 28% 26%
Display/Banner 21% 21% 19% 16% 13% 12% 11% 10% 9% 8%
Classifieds 8% 7% 6% 5% 5% 5% 5% 4% 4% 4%
Mobile 5% 9% 17% 25% 35% 37% 40% 42% 44% 47%
Digital Video 6% 6% 7% 7% 7% 8% 9% 10% 11% 12%
Lead Generation 5% 5% 4% 4% 3% 3% 2% 2% 2% 2%
Sponsorship 4% 2% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%
Rich Media 4% 3% 3% 3% 2% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1%
Email 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Y/Y Growth Rate by Ad Format Forecast
Ad Format 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Search - 13% 9% 2% 8% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6%
Display/Banner - 15% 6% -3% -2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Classifieds - 1% 0% -4% 20% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6%
Mobile - 108% 121% 70% 69% 18% 18% 18% 18% 18%
Digital Video - 15% 36% 16% 20% 24% 24% 24% 24% 24%
Lead Generation - 15% -6% 16% -10% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Sponsorship - -42% 17% 16% -40% -2% -2% -2% -2% -2%
Rich Media - -13% 17% 16% -20% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Email - - - - - - - - - -
Three Year Average Y/Y Growth Rate FORECAST GROWTH - MODEL DRIVERS
Ad Format 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Search - - - 8.17% 6.42% 6.00% 6.00% 6.00% 6.00% 6.00%
Display/Banner - - - 6.22% 0.34% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Classifieds - - - -0.79% 5.67% 6.00% 6.00% 6.00% 6.00% 6.00%
Mobile - - - 99.60% 86.51% 18.00% 18.00% 18.00% 18.00% 18.00%
Digital Video - - - 22.51% 24.16% 24.00% 24.00% 24.00% 24.00% 24.00%
Lead Generation - - - 8.22% -0.16% -0.16% -0.16% -0.16% -0.16% -0.16%
Sponsorship - - - -3.23% -2.40% -2.00% -2.00% -2.00% -2.00% -2.00%
Rich Media - - - 6.40% 4.29% 0.34% 0.34% 0.34% 0.34% 0.34%
Email - - - - - - - - - -
* Source: IAB Internet Advertising Revenue Reports 2012-2015
** Mobile revenue split 60% Search; 40% Display; Other formats aggregated into Display