The document shows market segment consensus growth forecasts for nonresidential building in the United States from 2014 to 2015. It predicts that commercial/industrial facilities will have the highest growth rates over this period at 9.9% and 11.2%, while institutional and religious buildings will see the lowest or negative growth. The forecasts are compiled twice yearly by the AIA Consensus Construction Forecast Panel, a group of leading construction forecasters, with the purpose of projecting industry business conditions 12 to 18 months in advance.

1. Market Segment Consensus Growth Forecasts 2014 2015
Overall nonresidential building 4.9% 8.0%
Commercial / industrial 9.9% 11.2%
Hotels 14.5% 9.2%
Office buildings 12.8% 13.3%
Industrial facilities 7.6% 9.2%
Retail 7.4% 10.4%
Institutional -0.1% 5.8%
Amusement / recreation 3.7% 6.6%
Education -0.1% 5.7%
Healthcare facilities -1.8% 6.6%
Religious -4.1% 0.7%
Public safety -4.2% 3.3%
AIA Consensus Construction Forecast Panel
The AIA Consensus Construction Forecast Panel is conducted twice a year with the leading
nonresidential construction forecasters in the United States including, McGraw Hill Construction, Wells
Fargo Securities, IHS-Global Insight, Moody’s economy.com, Reed Business Information, Associated
Builders & Contractors and FMI. The purpose of the Consensus Construction Forecast Panel is to project
business conditions in the construction industry over the coming 12 to 18 months. The Consensus
Construction Forecast Panel has been conducted for 15 years.