Shall We Call It
    Global Warming,
  Climate Variability or
Human Climate Disruption?
The Social Construction of Global Warming

           Mike Page, NCAR-USA
Human Dimensions of Global Environmental Change
                    Berlin




               December 2, 2005
After two decades of governmental policy
 and scientific research, environmentally
     unsustainable behavior around
            the globe persists.

 Overshadowed by politics and uncertainty,
  the social construction of environmental
issues has created a social inertia that needs
     to be more completely understood.
Social Construction of
           Environmental Issues
Claims Maker       Rhetoric     Social Power
  Scientist       Rationality     Expert(3)
 Industrialist   Endangerment    Reward(4)
  Politician       Rectitude    Legitimate(1)
                                Legitimate(1)
    Media          Balance       Referent(2)
                                  Expert(3)
Tracking Social Construction
      Content Analysis of Media Streams
                                                     2 3 5 6
                                                    .18 .17 .20 .17

 Science Press     1                1      Magazines
                  .19              .20
                  1                   1                 3    4
  Newspapers              Policy           Television             Policy
                 .18                 .19                .15 .19
                                            0    .34
                                                                  10   -.33
                                            0    .31
                                             ECI*                  ECI*


                              (Trumbo, 1995)


ECI - Extreme Concern Index
Let’s Call It
“Human Climate Disruption”
  • Rhetoric of rectitude
  • Rhetoric of endangerment
  • Comfortable language for the
    scientific community
    • Still use expert power
Modeling Social Construction
 • Beyond mathematical modeling
   • Intangibles and complexities of
     social behavior
 • Agent-based models
   • Interacting agents incorporating social roles,
     rhetoric and social power
   • Look for emergent behaviors
      • Is there a way to overcome social inertia?
Agent Diagram
                      values:
                  personal costs,
  message       depersonalized trust

                     maximize
                                                  behavior
                     cognitive         attitude
                                                  message
                     coherence
environment

                     response to
                                         social
                        social
                                        powers
                       powers
Environmentally Responsible Behavior
(ERB) Modified by Varied Social Parameters

 B
 e
 h
 a
 v
 i
 o
 r




     Personal
     Costs                Depersonalized
                          Trust
End


mpage@ucar.edu

MPage HDGEC

  • 1.
    Shall We CallIt Global Warming, Climate Variability or Human Climate Disruption? The Social Construction of Global Warming Mike Page, NCAR-USA Human Dimensions of Global Environmental Change Berlin December 2, 2005
  • 2.
    After two decadesof governmental policy and scientific research, environmentally unsustainable behavior around the globe persists. Overshadowed by politics and uncertainty, the social construction of environmental issues has created a social inertia that needs to be more completely understood.
  • 3.
    Social Construction of Environmental Issues Claims Maker Rhetoric Social Power Scientist Rationality Expert(3) Industrialist Endangerment Reward(4) Politician Rectitude Legitimate(1) Legitimate(1) Media Balance Referent(2) Expert(3)
  • 4.
    Tracking Social Construction Content Analysis of Media Streams 2 3 5 6 .18 .17 .20 .17 Science Press 1 1 Magazines .19 .20 1 1 3 4 Newspapers Policy Television Policy .18 .19 .15 .19 0 .34 10 -.33 0 .31 ECI* ECI* (Trumbo, 1995) ECI - Extreme Concern Index
  • 5.
    Let’s Call It “HumanClimate Disruption” • Rhetoric of rectitude • Rhetoric of endangerment • Comfortable language for the scientific community • Still use expert power
  • 6.
    Modeling Social Construction • Beyond mathematical modeling • Intangibles and complexities of social behavior • Agent-based models • Interacting agents incorporating social roles, rhetoric and social power • Look for emergent behaviors • Is there a way to overcome social inertia?
  • 7.
    Agent Diagram values: personal costs, message depersonalized trust maximize behavior cognitive attitude message coherence environment response to social social powers powers
  • 8.
    Environmentally Responsible Behavior (ERB)Modified by Varied Social Parameters B e h a v i o r Personal Costs Depersonalized Trust
  • 9.

Editor's Notes

  • #2 Mike Page - Software Engineer at NCAR Talk about the social construction of global warming …. how individuals in society would define it Background is IPCC graph of earth surface temperature variation for last 100 years with predictions under various scenarios of CO2 emissions
  • #3 If global warming represents a looming catastrophe for life on earth then why is unsustainable behavior towards the environment so prevalent? Politics, uncertainty …. social inertia … it’s hard to get people to change their behaviors if there is a shred of doubt in their minds This is the social construction of global warming for many and we need to understand more about t hat.
  • #4 Social constructions are created by Claims Makers using Rhetoric of various types that suit their purposes Normally, rhetoric of rectitude or endangerment is most effective in initial phase of social construction .. it seizes attentions more quickly Rhetoric of rationality in latter phases that approach resolution … it is calm and unhurried These groups tap into “social powers” as listed. Relative power of social powers is listed. Which group has the most social power? Which will be most influential in forming the public social construction of global warming?
  • #5 8-year span Science Press - 20 different pubs Newspapers - NYT, Wash Post, LA Times, Chr Sci Monitor. WSJ Policy - Congressional Record Magazines - Time, Newsweek, US News & World Rpt Television - NBC, ABC, CBS ECI - Extreme Concern Index Content Analysis and Cross Correlation Integer values - lags between media streams (units of 1/2 month) Real values - correlation coefficient Compare television/policy
  • #6 Indulge in a little social construction of our own and begin to call it “human Climate Disruption”. Would it be interesting to see how this attempt to shift the social construction of global warming might change behaviors? Is there a way to experiment with social behaviors and find out? Sure, we can talk to all of our friends but tabulating results takes time … like policy and science.
  • #7 Computer modeling would be quick and easy and not entail any large risks How would we go about it? Social behavior is beyond mathematical description due to it’s complexity Agent based modeling seems to be much more appropriate and achievable
  • #8 Diagram of an autonomous social agent. Small code, replicated with various configurations thousands of times within a system Essential elements of social construction …. behavior and communication
  • #9 This is what would be an interesting result of ABM if it can be found. A number of social factors can be identified that, when adjusted, can move ERB from low levels to high levels very suddenly Like falling “up” a cliff