Looking for Olympic gold
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More people... good or bad?
We take a look at migration trends every month. They are important to our region's housing market so it pays for investors to keep tabs on what's happening. And month after month we have been reporting better news than the month before. You have to start wondering when the good news will stop. Well, maybe this is the month. There is good news. A lot of it. But we’ve found some bad news too. First, let’s look at the good news.
Spring apartment rental market trends
The document provides a website, www.duprescott.com, where weekly videos can be found. The videos are located under the "Articles" tab on the site. Visitors to the site can watch the weekly video updates by going to the Articles section.
Waiting for a parking spot?
Are you having trouble finding a parking space these days? Fear not. It will get worse. Gone are the days when developers build in one or two parking spaces for every new apartment unit. Let’s take a look at what’s happening.
Forward to the past
Development activity is building more momentum this year. We saw almost 7,800 new units open in the region last year. That’s the biggest production year since 1991. But that record won’t last long. And something else very interesting is happening.
The J Wellington Wimpy Paradox
We get a lot of our real estate insights from movies, theatre, music, and dance and we have shared those ideas in past videos. Now we can add to that list of insight generators binge-watching offbeat television series. This summer we binge-watched "The Killing." It’s based on a Danish series we can’t pronounce. Wait a minute. What in the world does this have to do with apartments? You'll see.
Small property performance
We usually talk about trends for 20-unit and larger apartments. But there are a lot more investors involved in smaller rental properties like single-family rentals, multiplexes, and 5 to 19 unit apartment buildings. This spring we surveyed just over 2,200 20-unit and larger properties for our Apartment Vacancy Report and more than 6,400 smaller properties for our 1-19 Unit rent & Vacancy Report. So this week we will talk about some of the trends we found in King County from our smaller property survey.
Can you handle the truth about apartment rents?
The average apartment rent in Seattle rose 8.3% in the past year. That’s a lot. No doubt about it. It beats inflation. It beats wage growth. So some in the media, and special interest groups take to calling this a problem of skyrocketing rents, a crisis, an emergency. Well, let me say this about that. That type of hyperbole is misleading at best. And it is dishonest at worst.
Beautiful but fragile
Forecasts are beautiful things to observe. Okay, maybe not as beautiful as a Chihuly glass garden.
But just as fragile. That’s why the first rule of forecasting is, don’t. And the second rule is, if you must forecast, do it often. We won’t update our forecast for rents, vacancies, net income, development, and price trends until October. But since we’re almost half way through 2014 this is a good time to look at two key factors that will impact our next forecast.
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More people... good or bad?
We take a look at migration trends every month. They are important to our region's housing market so it pays for investors to keep tabs on what's happening. And month after month we have been reporting better news than the month before. You have to start wondering when the good news will stop. Well, maybe this is the month. There is good news. A lot of it. But we’ve found some bad news too. First, let’s look at the good news.
Spring apartment rental market trends
The document provides a website, www.duprescott.com, where weekly videos can be found. The videos are located under the "Articles" tab on the site. Visitors to the site can watch the weekly video updates by going to the Articles section.
Waiting for a parking spot?
Are you having trouble finding a parking space these days? Fear not. It will get worse. Gone are the days when developers build in one or two parking spaces for every new apartment unit. Let’s take a look at what’s happening.
Forward to the past
Development activity is building more momentum this year. We saw almost 7,800 new units open in the region last year. That’s the biggest production year since 1991. But that record won’t last long. And something else very interesting is happening.
The J Wellington Wimpy Paradox
We get a lot of our real estate insights from movies, theatre, music, and dance and we have shared those ideas in past videos. Now we can add to that list of insight generators binge-watching offbeat television series. This summer we binge-watched "The Killing." It’s based on a Danish series we can’t pronounce. Wait a minute. What in the world does this have to do with apartments? You'll see.
Small property performance
We usually talk about trends for 20-unit and larger apartments. But there are a lot more investors involved in smaller rental properties like single-family rentals, multiplexes, and 5 to 19 unit apartment buildings. This spring we surveyed just over 2,200 20-unit and larger properties for our Apartment Vacancy Report and more than 6,400 smaller properties for our 1-19 Unit rent & Vacancy Report. So this week we will talk about some of the trends we found in King County from our smaller property survey.
Can you handle the truth about apartment rents?
The average apartment rent in Seattle rose 8.3% in the past year. That’s a lot. No doubt about it. It beats inflation. It beats wage growth. So some in the media, and special interest groups take to calling this a problem of skyrocketing rents, a crisis, an emergency. Well, let me say this about that. That type of hyperbole is misleading at best. And it is dishonest at worst.
Beautiful but fragile
Forecasts are beautiful things to observe. Okay, maybe not as beautiful as a Chihuly glass garden.
But just as fragile. That’s why the first rule of forecasting is, don’t. And the second rule is, if you must forecast, do it often. We won’t update our forecast for rents, vacancies, net income, development, and price trends until October. But since we’re almost half way through 2014 this is a good time to look at two key factors that will impact our next forecast.
More is ... More
This short document provides a website, www.duprescott.com, for related weekly videos and more recent videos. It directs the reader to visit the site and view content under the "Articles" tab.
Can demand match development?
Year-to-date migration into the region is up 18% this year compared to last year. That’s down from the 24% increase we talked about a couple of months ago, but it is still great news. Maybe the numbers will be more meaningful. Let’s take a look.
Renovation cost & benefit
Some apartment buyers plan to renovate and sell within a year or two of their purchase. They expect to cash in the capital gains their effort created. Others plan to renovate and hold the property for the long-term. They see this as a way to increase cash flow. Either way, these buyers expect to force gains. They actively take steps to increase rents and values. They won’t sit back and either wait for, or gamble on a rising market. But does it really make sense?
Do you really need to park?
Are you having trouble finding a parking space these days? Fear not. It will get worse. Gone are the days when developers build in one or two parking spaces for every new apartment unit. Let’s take a look at what’s happening.
Demand fuel
9,400 people moved into the Puget Sound region every month, on average, over the past 12 months. That’s impressive. But the growth in in-migration has been slowing. In fact, it looks like it has flattened out so far this year. Okay, let’s take a more careful look at this trend.
Declaration of half way
Let’s take a quick look at sales activity in the first half of this year and compare it to the first half of last year to see how investor attitudes have changed. These trends are for sales of 5-unit and larger apartments in king, Pierce, and Snohomish counties. First, sales volume is up almost 40% this year.
How are new units selling?
Apartments built since 2010 accounted for more than one-quarter of the sales volume since May of last year. And that’s just the tip of the iceberg, with 10,000 new units expected to open this year followed by another 14,000 units next year. New construction sales are likely to command an even larger share of sales activity. So let’s see how these sales are different.
Single-family rentals versus apartments
A couple of weeks ago we discussed rent trends for smaller properties. Today we will look at these trends in a little more detail, by breaking out rent growth for single-family rentals, multiplexes, 5-19 unit apartments, and 20-unit and larger apartments separately. To keep things simple, we will look at two-bedroom rents in King County for each of these property types.
The truth about apartment rents
There are two things to pay careful attention to when looking at rent trends if you don’t want to be misled. One is the impact of new construction on rent trends. With so much new construction scheduled to open in the next three years, this will have a bigger impact on trends than we've seen in decades. The other issue is, well you'll have to watch the video to find out.
The Bedroom Challenge
Remember the Pepsi Challenge commercials from the 1970s? Pepsi won because it was sweeter, or so the story goes. Apartment investors often ask us which is sweeter, apartments with fewer bedrooms or those with more. They want to know which unit types will perform best in a recession, and which will perform best overall. Well, let's take a look.
What are sales saying?
Let's take a look at apartment sales activity in King, Pierce, and Snohomish counties to see what it can tell us about the health of our market right now and investor attitudes. We've got the first quarter under our belt now, so recent trends should be pretty informative.
Quality of life vs. sticker shock
We see an influx of out-of-state residents moving here for quality of life, job opportunities, schools, outdoor activities and proximity to entertainment, adding demand for multi-family housing; when people move away from friends and family, the on-site team becomes their temporary family, making a strong on-site team important; many new residents are from out of state and can pay higher rents than locals, still experiencing "sticker shock" but having good jobs.
Sit down & hold on
We were very disappointed by the Academy of Country Music Awards show last Sunday. What a whipsaw year so far. First we were thrilled when four of the nine movies nominated for best picture at the Oscars were specifically about apartment trends in the Puget Sound region. But it was a huge letdown when we saw that none of the country music nominations had anything to do with apartments. Even worse, Toby Keith wasn’t even nominated for his brilliant discussion about Seattle development trends in his song.
Forward to the past
Seattle’s Museum of History and Industry is a gem. And it would be worthwhile for everyone interested in our region’s apartment market to spend an afternoon there. Why? History has a way of repeating itself, at least in our region's apartment market.
Apartment sales activity
Investors continually look at market trends to help decide the answer to that age old question, “Is the glass half empty or half full?” But is that really the right question to ask? We don’t think so. Here’s why.
Speech slides: Rental Housing Association, March 2016
Is the apartment market going bananas? Here are four stories to give you a better understanding of critical apartment market trends in the Puget Sound region
Holly Court 6
This listing is for a top floor 2 bedroom, 1 bathroom condo located in a quiet building in West Seattle. It has high-end stainless steel appliances in the kitchen including a Subzero refrigerator, Dacor range, and Bosch dishwasher. The bathroom features tile floors and a large soaking tub. As amenities, it includes a wood-burning fireplace in the living room, in-unit laundry, and views of Puget Sound and the Olympic Mountains from the territorial. It is walking distance to parks, shops and public transit.
Impressive
This document provides a website, www.duprescott.com, that contains a weekly video and more recent videos. The website has an "Articles" tab where additional information can be found.
Haven103
The document advertises a 1 bedroom property called The Haven that includes a garden patio and provides an email contact of janis@duprescott.com for 9 repetitions of the same listing information.
The Trainor Maxim
While everyone was paying attention to rising rents last year, apartment expenses in the Puget Sound region also went up. Let's take a look.
What happened while you were on vacation?
Aloha. Did you get away for an early winter break in January? Well, if you did, here’s what you’ve missed already this year. Based on trends in January, 2015 is shaping up to be a very exciting year in the Puget Sound region apartment market. Let's take a quick look at some of these trends.
Negotiating? Think "Let it bleed"
According to the two finest philosophers of the past 100 years, when you are negotiating to buy an apartment building you have to decide on one of two strategies. The philosophers, Jagger & Richards in their 1968 treatise, “Let it Bleed”, identified the “Get what you want strategy” and suggested an alternate “Get what you need strategy.” Let’s start with the “get what you want” strategy.
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This short document provides a website, www.duprescott.com, for related weekly videos and more recent videos. It directs the reader to visit the site and view content under the "Articles" tab.
Can demand match development?
Year-to-date migration into the region is up 18% this year compared to last year. That’s down from the 24% increase we talked about a couple of months ago, but it is still great news. Maybe the numbers will be more meaningful. Let’s take a look.
Renovation cost & benefit
Some apartment buyers plan to renovate and sell within a year or two of their purchase. They expect to cash in the capital gains their effort created. Others plan to renovate and hold the property for the long-term. They see this as a way to increase cash flow. Either way, these buyers expect to force gains. They actively take steps to increase rents and values. They won’t sit back and either wait for, or gamble on a rising market. But does it really make sense?
Do you really need to park?
Are you having trouble finding a parking space these days? Fear not. It will get worse. Gone are the days when developers build in one or two parking spaces for every new apartment unit. Let’s take a look at what’s happening.
Demand fuel
9,400 people moved into the Puget Sound region every month, on average, over the past 12 months. That’s impressive. But the growth in in-migration has been slowing. In fact, it looks like it has flattened out so far this year. Okay, let’s take a more careful look at this trend.
Declaration of half way
Let’s take a quick look at sales activity in the first half of this year and compare it to the first half of last year to see how investor attitudes have changed. These trends are for sales of 5-unit and larger apartments in king, Pierce, and Snohomish counties. First, sales volume is up almost 40% this year.
How are new units selling?
Apartments built since 2010 accounted for more than one-quarter of the sales volume since May of last year. And that’s just the tip of the iceberg, with 10,000 new units expected to open this year followed by another 14,000 units next year. New construction sales are likely to command an even larger share of sales activity. So let’s see how these sales are different.
Single-family rentals versus apartments
A couple of weeks ago we discussed rent trends for smaller properties. Today we will look at these trends in a little more detail, by breaking out rent growth for single-family rentals, multiplexes, 5-19 unit apartments, and 20-unit and larger apartments separately. To keep things simple, we will look at two-bedroom rents in King County for each of these property types.
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The truth about apartment rents
There are two things to pay careful attention to when looking at rent trends if you don’t want to be misled. One is the impact of new construction on rent trends. With so much new construction scheduled to open in the next three years, this will have a bigger impact on trends than we've seen in decades. The other issue is, well you'll have to watch the video to find out.
The Bedroom Challenge
Remember the Pepsi Challenge commercials from the 1970s? Pepsi won because it was sweeter, or so the story goes. Apartment investors often ask us which is sweeter, apartments with fewer bedrooms or those with more. They want to know which unit types will perform best in a recession, and which will perform best overall. Well, let's take a look.
What are sales saying?
Let's take a look at apartment sales activity in King, Pierce, and Snohomish counties to see what it can tell us about the health of our market right now and investor attitudes. We've got the first quarter under our belt now, so recent trends should be pretty informative.
Quality of life vs. sticker shock
We see an influx of out-of-state residents moving here for quality of life, job opportunities, schools, outdoor activities and proximity to entertainment, adding demand for multi-family housing; when people move away from friends and family, the on-site team becomes their temporary family, making a strong on-site team important; many new residents are from out of state and can pay higher rents than locals, still experiencing "sticker shock" but having good jobs.
Sit down & hold on
We were very disappointed by the Academy of Country Music Awards show last Sunday. What a whipsaw year so far. First we were thrilled when four of the nine movies nominated for best picture at the Oscars were specifically about apartment trends in the Puget Sound region. But it was a huge letdown when we saw that none of the country music nominations had anything to do with apartments. Even worse, Toby Keith wasn’t even nominated for his brilliant discussion about Seattle development trends in his song.
Forward to the past
Seattle’s Museum of History and Industry is a gem. And it would be worthwhile for everyone interested in our region’s apartment market to spend an afternoon there. Why? History has a way of repeating itself, at least in our region's apartment market.
Apartment sales activity
Investors continually look at market trends to help decide the answer to that age old question, “Is the glass half empty or half full?” But is that really the right question to ask? We don’t think so. Here’s why.
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Speech slides: Rental Housing Association, March 2016
Is the apartment market going bananas? Here are four stories to give you a better understanding of critical apartment market trends in the Puget Sound region
Holly Court 6
This listing is for a top floor 2 bedroom, 1 bathroom condo located in a quiet building in West Seattle. It has high-end stainless steel appliances in the kitchen including a Subzero refrigerator, Dacor range, and Bosch dishwasher. The bathroom features tile floors and a large soaking tub. As amenities, it includes a wood-burning fireplace in the living room, in-unit laundry, and views of Puget Sound and the Olympic Mountains from the territorial. It is walking distance to parks, shops and public transit.
Impressive
This document provides a website, www.duprescott.com, that contains a weekly video and more recent videos. The website has an "Articles" tab where additional information can be found.
Haven103
The document advertises a 1 bedroom property called The Haven that includes a garden patio and provides an email contact of janis@duprescott.com for 9 repetitions of the same listing information.
The Trainor Maxim
While everyone was paying attention to rising rents last year, apartment expenses in the Puget Sound region also went up. Let's take a look.
What happened while you were on vacation?
Aloha. Did you get away for an early winter break in January? Well, if you did, here’s what you’ve missed already this year. Based on trends in January, 2015 is shaping up to be a very exciting year in the Puget Sound region apartment market. Let's take a quick look at some of these trends.
Negotiating? Think "Let it bleed"
According to the two finest philosophers of the past 100 years, when you are negotiating to buy an apartment building you have to decide on one of two strategies. The philosophers, Jagger & Richards in their 1968 treatise, “Let it Bleed”, identified the “Get what you want strategy” and suggested an alternate “Get what you need strategy.” Let’s start with the “get what you want” strategy.
Is deflation patriotic?
A lot of investors are bullish on our region’s apartment market. They have seen rents climb over the past few years and expect more of the same. Others are worried that new development will increase vacancies and lower rents and values. The key is for investors to look at all of the inflationary and deflationary trends in the market, not just the one thing they might be fixated on today. It’s like the Patriots letting air out of footballs. Let's see how.
Growing Gains
This short document provides a website and location for additional related information. Viewers are directed to www.duprescott.com and told to look under the "Articles" tab for a weekly video. The video can be found by going to the specified website and section.
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The document summarizes a 950 square foot commercial space available for lease in Seattle, Washington. It includes one off-street parking space and is located on the ground floor of a four-story mixed-use building with ample windows and lighting. The space has two enclosed private offices, an open floor plan, a private restroom, and is available for $1800 per month on a minimum three-year lease starting July 1st.
Record sales?
Yes, vinyl is popular again, but we don't mean that type of record sales. What we mean is apartment sales activity broke a couple of records in 2014. Sales volume reached an all-time high. So did prices. These are definitely bullish indicators. But that's it for the records. Other indicators aren't so bullish. They're not bad. They just aren't in record-setting territory. Let's take a look.
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Digging up submarket apartment sale trends
We talk about Seattle trends in these videos a lot. That’s because there are more sales in Seattle making it easier to spot trends. But there are some interesting sales trends in other submarkets, so we dug around in the cellar archives to find some trends to discuss today. Let’s take a quick look at them.
Who gets quantity discounts?
A couple of weeks ago we looked at rent trends for smaller properties compared to larger properties and found some interesting trends that surprised a lot of people. If you want to check it out, the video is called "Sometimes mom-and-pop’s pop." But that video also generated more questions, particularly about sales performance. So here’s a look at sales trends based on property size.
Who gets quantity discounts?
This document provides a website, www.duprescott.com, that contains a weekly video and more recent videos. The website has an "Articles" tab where additional information can be found.
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Looking for Olympic gold
- 8. See the related weekly video at www.duprescott.com Under the “Articles” tab