Can demand match development?
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Year-to-date migration into the region is up 18% this year compared to last year. That’s down from the 24% increase we talked about a couple of months ago, but it is still great news. Maybe the numbers will be more meaningful. Let’s take a look.
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The more the merrier
Here is some good news about migration into the Puget Sound region. Our region continues to capture more than 60% of the migration into the state. And year-to-date migration into the region is up 16% this year compared to last year. Here’s more good news.
Goldilocks and the Big Wheel
Apartment investment trends are cyclical. But unlike Seattle’s big wheel, and whether this is good or bad is a matter of opinion, most of us will go through more than 3 cycles in our career. In fact, sales trends in the Puget Sound region apartment market remind me of the story of Goldilocks and the three bears. Actually, Goldilocks and the three bowls of porridge.
Is deflation patriotic?
A lot of investors are bullish on our region’s apartment market. They have seen rents climb over the past few years and expect more of the same. Others are worried that new development will increase vacancies and lower rents and values. The key is for investors to look at all of the inflationary and deflationary trends in the market, not just the one thing they might be fixated on today. It’s like the Patriots letting air out of footballs. Let's see how.
Record sales?
Yes, vinyl is popular again, but we don't mean that type of record sales. What we mean is apartment sales activity broke a couple of records in 2014. Sales volume reached an all-time high. So did prices. These are definitely bullish indicators. But that's it for the records. Other indicators aren't so bullish. They're not bad. They just aren't in record-setting territory. Let's take a look.
Forward to the past
Seattle’s Museum of History and Industry is a gem. And it would be worthwhile for everyone interested in our region’s apartment market to spend an afternoon there. Why? History has a way of repeating itself, at least in our region's apartment market.
Growing Gains
Moving can be exciting but it can also be a huge hassle. So let’s say thank you to the 175,000 people who moved into Washington last year. Over 60% of them landed in the Puget Sound region. That adds up to a lot of potential housing demand. There’s only one problem though. Let's take a look.
What happened while you were on vacation?
Aloha. Did you get away for an early winter break in January? Well, if you did, here’s what you’ve missed already this year. Based on trends in January, 2015 is shaping up to be a very exciting year in the Puget Sound region apartment market. Let's take a quick look at some of these trends.
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The more the merrier
Here is some good news about migration into the Puget Sound region. Our region continues to capture more than 60% of the migration into the state. And year-to-date migration into the region is up 16% this year compared to last year. Here’s more good news.
Goldilocks and the Big Wheel
Apartment investment trends are cyclical. But unlike Seattle’s big wheel, and whether this is good or bad is a matter of opinion, most of us will go through more than 3 cycles in our career. In fact, sales trends in the Puget Sound region apartment market remind me of the story of Goldilocks and the three bears. Actually, Goldilocks and the three bowls of porridge.
Is deflation patriotic?
A lot of investors are bullish on our region’s apartment market. They have seen rents climb over the past few years and expect more of the same. Others are worried that new development will increase vacancies and lower rents and values. The key is for investors to look at all of the inflationary and deflationary trends in the market, not just the one thing they might be fixated on today. It’s like the Patriots letting air out of footballs. Let's see how.
Record sales?
Yes, vinyl is popular again, but we don't mean that type of record sales. What we mean is apartment sales activity broke a couple of records in 2014. Sales volume reached an all-time high. So did prices. These are definitely bullish indicators. But that's it for the records. Other indicators aren't so bullish. They're not bad. They just aren't in record-setting territory. Let's take a look.
Forward to the past
Seattle’s Museum of History and Industry is a gem. And it would be worthwhile for everyone interested in our region’s apartment market to spend an afternoon there. Why? History has a way of repeating itself, at least in our region's apartment market.
Growing Gains
Moving can be exciting but it can also be a huge hassle. So let’s say thank you to the 175,000 people who moved into Washington last year. Over 60% of them landed in the Puget Sound region. That adds up to a lot of potential housing demand. There’s only one problem though. Let's take a look.
What happened while you were on vacation?
Aloha. Did you get away for an early winter break in January? Well, if you did, here’s what you’ve missed already this year. Based on trends in January, 2015 is shaping up to be a very exciting year in the Puget Sound region apartment market. Let's take a quick look at some of these trends.
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We get a lot of our real estate insights from movies, theatre, music, and dance and we have shared those ideas in past videos. Now we can add to that list of insight generators binge-watching offbeat television series. This summer we binge-watched "The Killing." It’s based on a Danish series we can’t pronounce. Wait a minute. What in the world does this have to do with apartments? You'll see.
Single-family rentals versus apartments
A couple of weeks ago we discussed rent trends for smaller properties. Today we will look at these trends in a little more detail, by breaking out rent growth for single-family rentals, multiplexes, 5-19 unit apartments, and 20-unit and larger apartments separately. To keep things simple, we will look at two-bedroom rents in King County for each of these property types.
Small property performance
We usually talk about trends for 20-unit and larger apartments. But there are a lot more investors involved in smaller rental properties like single-family rentals, multiplexes, and 5 to 19 unit apartment buildings. This spring we surveyed just over 2,200 20-unit and larger properties for our Apartment Vacancy Report and more than 6,400 smaller properties for our 1-19 Unit rent & Vacancy Report. So this week we will talk about some of the trends we found in King County from our smaller property survey.
Demand fuel
9,400 people moved into the Puget Sound region every month, on average, over the past 12 months. That’s impressive. But the growth in in-migration has been slowing. In fact, it looks like it has flattened out so far this year. Okay, let’s take a more careful look at this trend.
Can you handle the truth about apartment rents?
The average apartment rent in Seattle rose 8.3% in the past year. That’s a lot. No doubt about it. It beats inflation. It beats wage growth. So some in the media, and special interest groups take to calling this a problem of skyrocketing rents, a crisis, an emergency. Well, let me say this about that. That type of hyperbole is misleading at best. And it is dishonest at worst.
Forward to the past
Development activity is building more momentum this year. We saw almost 7,800 new units open in the region last year. That’s the biggest production year since 1991. But that record won’t last long. And something else very interesting is happening.
Impressive
Apartment sales activity in the Puget Sound region is starting off the year impressively. The number of sales in January and February is up 20% from January and February of last year. That’s significant, but that’s nothing. Take a look at this.
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According to the two finest philosophers of the past 100 years, when you are negotiating to buy an apartment building you have to decide on one of two strategies. The philosophers, Jagger & Richards in their 1968 treatise, “Let it Bleed”, identified the “Get what you want strategy” and suggested an alternate “Get what you need strategy.” Let’s start with the “get what you want” strategy.
More people... good or bad?
We take a look at migration trends every month. They are important to our region's housing market so it pays for investors to keep tabs on what's happening. And month after month we have been reporting better news than the month before. You have to start wondering when the good news will stop. Well, maybe this is the month. There is good news. A lot of it. But we’ve found some bad news too. First, let’s look at the good news.
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Waiting for a parking spot?
Are you having trouble finding a parking space these days? Fear not. It will get worse. Gone are the days when developers build in one or two parking spaces for every new apartment unit. Let’s take a look at what’s happening.
Declaration of half way
Let’s take a quick look at sales activity in the first half of this year and compare it to the first half of last year to see how investor attitudes have changed. These trends are for sales of 5-unit and larger apartments in king, Pierce, and Snohomish counties. First, sales volume is up almost 40% this year.
More is ... More
Year-to-date migration into the region is up 24% this year compared to last year. A total of almost 43,000 people moved here between January and May. Even if half as many moved out, that still means there are 21,500 more people lining up at Starbucks every morning.
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Forecasts are beautiful things to observe. Okay, maybe not as beautiful as a Chihuly glass garden.
But just as fragile. That’s why the first rule of forecasting is, don’t. And the second rule is, if you must forecast, do it often. We won’t update our forecast for rents, vacancies, net income, development, and price trends until October. But since we’re almost half way through 2014 this is a good time to look at two key factors that will impact our next forecast.
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We get a lot of our real estate insights from movies, theatre, music, and dance and we have shared those ideas in past videos. Now we can add to that list of insight generators binge-watching offbeat television series. This summer we binge-watched "The Killing." It’s based on a Danish series we can’t pronounce. Wait a minute. What in the world does this have to do with apartments? You'll see.
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Small property performance
We usually talk about trends for 20-unit and larger apartments. But there are a lot more investors involved in smaller rental properties like single-family rentals, multiplexes, and 5 to 19 unit apartment buildings. This spring we surveyed just over 2,200 20-unit and larger properties for our Apartment Vacancy Report and more than 6,400 smaller properties for our 1-19 Unit rent & Vacancy Report. So this week we will talk about some of the trends we found in King County from our smaller property survey.
Demand fuel
9,400 people moved into the Puget Sound region every month, on average, over the past 12 months. That’s impressive. But the growth in in-migration has been slowing. In fact, it looks like it has flattened out so far this year. Okay, let’s take a more careful look at this trend.
Can you handle the truth about apartment rents?
The average apartment rent in Seattle rose 8.3% in the past year. That’s a lot. No doubt about it. It beats inflation. It beats wage growth. So some in the media, and special interest groups take to calling this a problem of skyrocketing rents, a crisis, an emergency. Well, let me say this about that. That type of hyperbole is misleading at best. And it is dishonest at worst.
Forward to the past
Development activity is building more momentum this year. We saw almost 7,800 new units open in the region last year. That’s the biggest production year since 1991. But that record won’t last long. And something else very interesting is happening.
Impressive
Apartment sales activity in the Puget Sound region is starting off the year impressively. The number of sales in January and February is up 20% from January and February of last year. That’s significant, but that’s nothing. Take a look at this.
The Trainor Maxim
While everyone was paying attention to rising rents last year, apartment expenses in the Puget Sound region also went up. Let's take a look.
Do you really need to park?
Are you having trouble finding a parking space these days? Fear not. It will get worse. Gone are the days when developers build in one or two parking spaces for every new apartment unit. Let’s take a look at what’s happening.
Negotiating? Think "Let it bleed"
According to the two finest philosophers of the past 100 years, when you are negotiating to buy an apartment building you have to decide on one of two strategies. The philosophers, Jagger & Richards in their 1968 treatise, “Let it Bleed”, identified the “Get what you want strategy” and suggested an alternate “Get what you need strategy.” Let’s start with the “get what you want” strategy.
More people... good or bad?
We take a look at migration trends every month. They are important to our region's housing market so it pays for investors to keep tabs on what's happening. And month after month we have been reporting better news than the month before. You have to start wondering when the good news will stop. Well, maybe this is the month. There is good news. A lot of it. But we’ve found some bad news too. First, let’s look at the good news.
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Are you having trouble finding a parking space these days? Fear not. It will get worse. Gone are the days when developers build in one or two parking spaces for every new apartment unit. Let’s take a look at what’s happening.
Declaration of half way
Let’s take a quick look at sales activity in the first half of this year and compare it to the first half of last year to see how investor attitudes have changed. These trends are for sales of 5-unit and larger apartments in king, Pierce, and Snohomish counties. First, sales volume is up almost 40% this year.
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Forecasts are beautiful things to observe. Okay, maybe not as beautiful as a Chihuly glass garden.
But just as fragile. That’s why the first rule of forecasting is, don’t. And the second rule is, if you must forecast, do it often. We won’t update our forecast for rents, vacancies, net income, development, and price trends until October. But since we’re almost half way through 2014 this is a good time to look at two key factors that will impact our next forecast.
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Can demand match development?
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