Forward to the past
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Seattle’s Museum of History and Industry is a gem. And it would be worthwhile for everyone interested in our region’s apartment market to spend an afternoon there. Why? History has a way of repeating itself, at least in our region's apartment market.
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More people... good or bad?
We take a look at migration trends every month. They are important to our region's housing market so it pays for investors to keep tabs on what's happening. And month after month we have been reporting better news than the month before. You have to start wondering when the good news will stop. Well, maybe this is the month. There is good news. A lot of it. But we’ve found some bad news too. First, let’s look at the good news.
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Some apartment buyers plan to renovate and sell within a year or two of their purchase. They expect to cash in the capital gains their effort created. Others plan to renovate and hold the property for the long-term. They see this as a way to increase cash flow. Either way, these buyers expect to force gains. They actively take steps to increase rents and values. They won’t sit back and either wait for, or gamble on a rising market. But does it really make sense?
Forward to the past
Development activity is building more momentum this year. We saw almost 7,800 new units open in the region last year. That’s the biggest production year since 1991. But that record won’t last long. And something else very interesting is happening.
Beautiful but fragile
Forecasts are beautiful things to observe. Okay, maybe not as beautiful as a Chihuly glass garden.
But just as fragile. That’s why the first rule of forecasting is, don’t. And the second rule is, if you must forecast, do it often. We won’t update our forecast for rents, vacancies, net income, development, and price trends until October. But since we’re almost half way through 2014 this is a good time to look at two key factors that will impact our next forecast.
How are new units selling?
Apartments built since 2010 accounted for more than one-quarter of the sales volume since May of last year. And that’s just the tip of the iceberg, with 10,000 new units expected to open this year followed by another 14,000 units next year. New construction sales are likely to command an even larger share of sales activity. So let’s see how these sales are different.
Single-family rentals versus apartments
A couple of weeks ago we discussed rent trends for smaller properties. Today we will look at these trends in a little more detail, by breaking out rent growth for single-family rentals, multiplexes, 5-19 unit apartments, and 20-unit and larger apartments separately. To keep things simple, we will look at two-bedroom rents in King County for each of these property types.
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We get a lot of our real estate insights from movies, theatre, music, and dance and we have shared those ideas in past videos. Now we can add to that list of insight generators binge-watching offbeat television series. This summer we binge-watched "The Killing." It’s based on a Danish series we can’t pronounce. Wait a minute. What in the world does this have to do with apartments? You'll see.
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More people... good or bad?
We take a look at migration trends every month. They are important to our region's housing market so it pays for investors to keep tabs on what's happening. And month after month we have been reporting better news than the month before. You have to start wondering when the good news will stop. Well, maybe this is the month. There is good news. A lot of it. But we’ve found some bad news too. First, let’s look at the good news.
Spring apartment rental market trends
If this is the calm before the storm, it's an extremely good way to start.
Renovation cost & benefit
Some apartment buyers plan to renovate and sell within a year or two of their purchase. They expect to cash in the capital gains their effort created. Others plan to renovate and hold the property for the long-term. They see this as a way to increase cash flow. Either way, these buyers expect to force gains. They actively take steps to increase rents and values. They won’t sit back and either wait for, or gamble on a rising market. But does it really make sense?
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Development activity is building more momentum this year. We saw almost 7,800 new units open in the region last year. That’s the biggest production year since 1991. But that record won’t last long. And something else very interesting is happening.
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But just as fragile. That’s why the first rule of forecasting is, don’t. And the second rule is, if you must forecast, do it often. We won’t update our forecast for rents, vacancies, net income, development, and price trends until October. But since we’re almost half way through 2014 this is a good time to look at two key factors that will impact our next forecast.
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Apartments built since 2010 accounted for more than one-quarter of the sales volume since May of last year. And that’s just the tip of the iceberg, with 10,000 new units expected to open this year followed by another 14,000 units next year. New construction sales are likely to command an even larger share of sales activity. So let’s see how these sales are different.
Single-family rentals versus apartments
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Moving can be exciting but it can also be a huge hassle. So let’s say thank you to the 175,000 people who moved into Washington last year. Over 60% of them landed in the Puget Sound region. That adds up to a lot of potential housing demand. There’s only one problem though. Let's take a look.
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Small property performance
We usually talk about trends for 20-unit and larger apartments. But there are a lot more investors involved in smaller rental properties like single-family rentals, multiplexes, and 5 to 19 unit apartment buildings. This spring we surveyed just over 2,200 20-unit and larger properties for our Apartment Vacancy Report and more than 6,400 smaller properties for our 1-19 Unit rent & Vacancy Report. So this week we will talk about some of the trends we found in King County from our smaller property survey.
Can demand match development?
Year-to-date migration into the region is up 18% this year compared to last year. That’s down from the 24% increase we talked about a couple of months ago, but it is still great news. Maybe the numbers will be more meaningful. Let’s take a look.
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Who gets quantity discounts?
A couple of weeks ago we looked at rent trends for smaller properties compared to larger properties and found some interesting trends that surprised a lot of people. If you want to check it out, the video is called "Sometimes mom-and-pop’s pop." But that video also generated more questions, particularly about sales performance. So here’s a look at sales trends based on property size.
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Presentation to Windust Meadows HOA Board of Directors June 4, 2024: Focus o...
Presentation to Windust Meadows HOA Board of Directors June 4, 2024: Focus o...
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