Long‐term Household Projections

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National Housing Research Committee - Comité national du recherche sur le logement

How will slower population growth and a rising average age affect household growth and the overall rate of home ownership over the long‐term? To help answer these questions, CMHC has developed long‐term, demographics‐driven projections of household and ownership growth for Canada. Richard Gabay, Senior Researcher, CMHC

Real Estate Business Economy & Finance

Long-term Household Growth Projections Richard GabayHousing Needs Policy and Research GroupPolicy and Research Division Presentation to NHRC Working Group on Housing Data 2 November 2009

CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 2 Presentation Overview

CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 3

CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 4 Household Projections at CMHC

CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 5 Household Projections at CMHC

CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 6

PHD Modelling Framework CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 7 Base population Survival rates Fertility rates Migration Projected headship rates (family & non-family, by age) Projected population (age & sex) Projected households (family & non-family, by age) Projected ownership rates (family & non-family, by age) Projected dwelling type rates (family & non-family, by tenure, age) Projected households (family & non-family, by tenure, dwelling type & age)

CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 8 Headship Rate Approach

CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 9 Household Formation vs Housing Demand

CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 10

CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 11 Projection Scenarios

CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 12 Population Growth Assumptions

CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 13 International Migration Scenarios

CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 14 Household Growth Assumptions

Family and Non-family Headship Rates CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 15 1971 2006 Non-family Family Non-family Family

CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 16 Population Growth Projections ,[object Object]

Immigration slows the impact of population ageing,[object Object]

Births rise initially but decline after 2020,[object Object]

CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 19 Household Growth Projected to Decline

CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 20 Non-family Households Expected to Make Gains ,[object Object],[object Object]

Biggest contribution to household growth occurred with the transition from age 15-19 to age 20-24 (1971 to 1976)

Later transitions make progressively smaller contributions to growth

Future growth rests on relative size and pace of growth of young adult population.,[object Object]

Singles growth rises until 2011 in all scenarios, then declines

Apartment growth flat in High scenario until 2016, then falls gradually

Growth in Other declines throughout projection in all scenarios,[object Object]

CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 24 Aggregate Ownership Rate Ownership rate projected to range from 66.8% to 73.5% in 2036

CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 25 Owner Household Growth Likely Peaked

CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 26 Renter Household Growth Projected to Rise

CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 27 Projection Considerations

CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 28 Major Implications

Une étude, commandée par RHDCC et réalisée par SPARC BC, met en lumière l’efficacité de nombreuses stratégies municipales pour lutter contre l’itinérance, particulièrement les primes à la densité, la fourniture de terrains pour les urgences, la transition, des logements de soutien ou sous le prix du marché et l’autorisation d’aménager des appartements accessoires. Robyn Newton, chercheur principal, Social Planning and Research Council of British Columbia

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- The growing senior population will increase demands for affordable and accessible housing as more seniors face challenges with independent living. - The number of seniors is projected to grow by 30 million by 2030, increasing the share of the population over 65 from 13% to 20%. - Seniors want to age in place but many homes lack accessibility features, creating challenges for independent living, especially for low-income renters and those with disabilities.

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Small balance multifamily loans typically range from $1 to $5 million. A document from Arbor analyzes household demographics for different property types using Census data. It finds that between 2014-2016, the share of small asset multifamily households headed by baby boomers and seniors over 60 grew by 146 basis points, while declining for other groups. The majority of small asset multifamily households are headed by millennials between ages of 40 and 59, comprising a larger share than in single-family rentals or larger apartment buildings.

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This document provides an overview of trends in the US rental housing market from 2004-2013. Key points include: - Renting increased significantly during this period, with the renter share of households rising from 31% to 35%. This was driven by foreclosures, economic struggles, and a renewed appreciation of renting's benefits. - Growth was widespread across age groups and included many families. However, renter incomes declined over this period, pushing a record number to pay excessive shares of their income for housing. - Looking ahead, an aging population and minority household growth will be major drivers of continued demand for rental housing in the coming decade. However, the pace of growth is expected to slow from recent high

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In 2015, 9,842 individuals in Kent County contacted the homeless services system. 4,602 were literally homeless and staying in shelters or unsheltered locations, while 5,240 were at imminent risk of homelessness. The largest groups were single adults (34%), children in families (39%), and adults in families (26%). African Americans accounted for 62% of individuals experiencing homelessness. The data is used to identify needs and inform efforts to prevent and end homelessness.

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Rental housing has always provided a broad choice of homes for people at all phases of life. The recent economic turmoil underscored the many advantages of renting and raised the barriers to homeownership, sparking a surge in demand that has buoyed rental markets across the country. But significant erosion in renter incomes over the past decade has pushed the number of households paying excessive shares of income for housing to record levels. Assistance efforts have failed to keep pace with this escalating need, undermining the nation’s longstanding goal of ensuring decent and affordable housing for all.

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The number of Americans ages 65 and older is projected to nearly d.docx

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Long‐term Household Projections

1. Long-term Household Growth Projections Richard GabayHousing Needs Policy and Research GroupPolicy and Research Division Presentation to NHRC Working Group on Housing Data 2 November 2009

2. CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 2 Presentation Overview

3. CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 3

4. CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 4 Household Projections at CMHC

5. CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 5 Household Projections at CMHC

6. CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 6

7. PHD Modelling Framework CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 7 Base population Survival rates Fertility rates Migration Projected headship rates (family & non-family, by age) Projected population (age & sex) Projected households (family & non-family, by age) Projected ownership rates (family & non-family, by age) Projected dwelling type rates (family & non-family, by tenure, age) Projected households (family & non-family, by tenure, dwelling type & age)

8. CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 8 Headship Rate Approach

9. CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 9 Household Formation vs Housing Demand

10. CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 10

11. CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 11 Projection Scenarios

12. CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 12 Population Growth Assumptions

13. CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 13 International Migration Scenarios

14. CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 14 Household Growth Assumptions

15. Family and Non-family Headship Rates CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 15 1971 2006 Non-family Family Non-family Family

16.

17.

18.

19. CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 19 Household Growth Projected to Decline

20.

21. Biggest contribution to household growth occurred with the transition from age 15-19 to age 20-24 (1971 to 1976)

22. Later transitions make progressively smaller contributions to growth

23.

24. Singles growth rises until 2011 in all scenarios, then declines

25. Apartment growth flat in High scenario until 2016, then falls gradually

26.

27. CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 24 Aggregate Ownership Rate Ownership rate projected to range from 66.8% to 73.5% in 2036

28. CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 25 Owner Household Growth Likely Peaked

29. CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 26 Renter Household Growth Projected to Rise

30. CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 27 Projection Considerations

31. CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 28 Major Implications

32. CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 29

33. CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 30 Comparison With Other Projections

34. CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 31 Household Growth Projections *Average yearly household formation is computed over the years 2005-2010, 2010-2015 and 2015-2020. †The annual average in the last period of the projection is computed over the years 2026-2030.

Long‐term Household Projections

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Long‐term Household Projections