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NYSE: LAD
Brenna Driver | Marc Feldman | Tyler Schroeder | Garrett Stein
1
Index
Investment Thesis
Company Overview
Auto Industry Overview
Catalysts
Valuation
Final Thoughts
Appendix
2
3
4
10
14
18
20
21
InvestmentThesis
The Market Consensus
◆ Lithia carries the highest Analyst Rating
and valuation of its competitor set
◆ Lithia will continue to outperform its
peers, despite weak vehicle demand
◆ Lithia is a safe stock for auto exposure
3
Where the Market is Wrong
◆ Lithia’s business model is not “recession
resistant” as investor presentation claims
◆ New Car Sales have been temporarily
kept afloat by easy credit, longer-term
loans, and high incentives
Catalysts to Correction
◆ Earnings Miss in Q2
◆ Analyst downgrades
◆ Management guidance revised
downward
Projected Downside
◆ We recommend Lithia Motors, Inc. as a
SHORT with a 12 month price target of
$63, representing 38% downside
potential from its current price of $100.98
1
Investment Thesis
2
Company Overview
3
Auto Industry Overview
4
Catalysts
5
Valuation
6
Final Thoughts
7
Appendix
Company Overview
Operations
◆ Operate 185 dealerships in 18 states
◆ CA, OR, and NJ accounted for 52% of
FY17 Revenue
◆ Dealers fall under franchise
agreements with manufacturers
4
Acquisition-Driven Growth Strategy
◆ Purchased 18 stores in 2017 for $1.7B
Financials
◆ Lowest leverage of peer set
◆ Industry-leading liquidity
◆ Lots of dry powder for acquisitions
Source: Lithia Motors, Inc. Investor Presentation 3/31/2018
1
Investment Thesis
2
Company Overview
3
Auto Industry Overview
4
Catalysts
5
Valuation
6
Final Thoughts
7
Appendix
Operating Divisions
New Vehicle Sales
◆ Offer 30+ brands
◆ 54% of New Vehicles Sales were
Chrysler, Honda, or Toyota
◆ Drives P&S revenue on a 2-3 year lag
5
Used Vehicle Sales
◆ Opportunity to sell to those unable or
unwilling to buy new
◆ Chance to increase vehicle sales by
aggressively pursuing trade-ins
Parts and Service (P&S)
◆ High margin business that is less
sensitive to downturns
◆ Provides repeat revenues to stores
◆ Operates 20+ collision repair centers
Financing and Insurance (F&I)
◆ 75% of vehicles sold in 2017 by the
company were financed
◆ Warranties and insurance products
complement P&S
1
Investment Thesis
2
Company Overview
3
Auto Industry Overview
4
Catalysts
5
Valuation
6
Final Thoughts
7
Appendix
Segment Breakdown
◆ Management has used vehicle sales to
drive growth in high-margin P&S line
◆ F&I poses risk to bottom line when
lending standards are tightened
◆ Slow down in vehicle sales will
negatively impact P&S
◆ Small changes in revenue for F&I and
P&S can have major bottom line
implications
6
0.4%
32.5%
25.5%
19.2%
22.4%
1.0%
10.1%
3.8%
28.0%
57.1%
0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0%
Fleet and other
Service, body and parts
Finance and insurance
Used vehicle
New vehicle
Contribution to Revenue and Gross Profit by Segment
Percentage of Revenue Percentage of Gross Profit
Source: Lithia Motors, Inc. 10-K
1
Investment Thesis
2
Company Overview
3
Auto Industry Overview
4
Catalysts
5
Valuation
6
Final Thoughts
7
Appendix
2018 Management Guidance
Growth Less Acquisitions
◆ Implied organic revenue growth: 8.6%
◆ Implied organic EPS growth: 12.9%
◆ Given new vehicle headwinds,
guidance set far too high
7
Management Revenue Guidance
Marginal Effect of Acquisitions Management EPS Guidance
1
Investment Thesis
2
Company Overview
3
Auto Industry Overview
4
Catalysts
5
Valuation
6
Final Thoughts
7
Appendix
Dealership Overview
8
◆ Auto dealership industry undergoing
consolidation
◆ Online retailers put pressure on
margins and pricing power
◆ Increasing technology needs make
economies of scale more pronounced
◆ Consolidation likely to continue,
driving returns lower
1
Investment Thesis
2
Company Overview
3
Auto Industry Overview
4
Catalysts
5
Valuation
6
Final Thoughts
7
Appendix
High Expectations
EV/EBITDA EV/EBIT EV/Sales P/E Forward P/E Price/Sales
LAD 11.62 13.26 0.54 12.21 9.47 0.25
ABG 9.43 10.48 0.47 10.48 8.87 0.22
AN 10.72 12.73 0.50 11.91 9.49 0.21
GPI 10.66 12.47 0.38 8.55 7.55 0.12
PAG 13.77 15.91 0.45 10.29 8.74 0.18
SAH 11.10 15.77 0.34 10.20 8.34 0.08
High 13.77 15.91 0.50 11.91 9.49 0.22
Mean 11.13 13.47 0.43 10.29 8.60 0.16
Median 10.72 12.73 0.45 10.29 8.74 0.18
Low 9.43 10.48 0.34 8.55 7.55 0.08
LAD Rank 2 3 1 1 2 1
Source: Bloomberg
Based on T12M excluding Forward P/E
9
Ticker Company Analyst Rating
LAD Lithia Motors, Inc. 4.60
PAG Penske Automotive Group, Inc. 4.40
ABG Asbury Automotive Group, Inc. 3.36
AN AutoNation Inc. 3.25
GPI Group 1 Automotive Inc. 3.00
SAH Sonic Automotive Inc. 3.00
Source: Bloomberg
Ratings Scale is 1 (Sell) to 5 (Buy)
1
Investment Thesis
2
Company Overview
3
Auto Industry Overview
4
Catalysts
5
Valuation
6
Final Thoughts
7
Appendix
Auto Industry Overview
◆ Auto sales slumped during the Great
Recession
◆ Manufacturers and dealerships were
rescued by Cash For Clunkers
◆ New Car Sales boomed from 2010 to
2015
◆ Delinquencies on Subprime Auto
Loans are nearing pre-financial-crisis
levels of 10%
10
Source: Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, St. Louis FRED
1
Investment Thesis
2
Company Overview
3
Auto Industry Overview
4
Catalysts
5
Valuation
6
Final Thoughts
7
Appendix
Auto Credit
Repossession in California
“The number of cars we’ve towed in the
past couple of months has increased
significantly.”
-Gary Rayburn, Cal-Coast Recovery
11
Lending Environment
Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence
◆ S&P Global raises forecasted losses
for ABSs primarily in Western U.S.
◆ Average credit score for prime and
subprime rising
◆ Auto Finance companies de-risking
1
Investment Thesis
2
Company Overview
3
Auto Industry Overview
4
Catalysts
5
Valuation
6
Final Thoughts
7
Appendix
Inventory and Retail Sales
◆ Manufacturer inventories fell to 6 year
lows due to decreases in production
◆ Retail sales are stable
◆ Divergence suggests manufacturers
aware of impending supply glut
◆ Increases in vehicle leasing have led to
large used vehicle inventories
◆ Used car prices are falling due to an
inventory surplus
12
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
All data seasonally-adjusted, Retail Sales shown at annualized rate
1
Investment Thesis
2
Company Overview
3
Auto Industry Overview
4
Catalysts
5
Valuation
6
Final Thoughts
7
Appendix
Trade Cycle Extension
◆ Steadily rising used car prices from
2011-2016 shortened trade cycles,
which increased new car sales velocity
◆ As used car prices fall, trade cycles
lengthen
◆ Borrowers on longer loan terms
(typically poor credit) feel greater
impact from falling vehicle prices
13
Source: Blinders Off LLC
1
Investment Thesis
2
Company Overview
3
Auto Industry Overview
4
Catalysts
5
Valuation
6
Final Thoughts
7
Appendix
Race to the Bottom
14
Used Vehicle
Values Drop
Trade Cycles
Lengthen
Sales Velocity
Slows
Day Supply
Grows
Incentives
Rise
Production
Slows
1
Investment Thesis
2
Company Overview
3
Auto Industry Overview
4
Catalysts
5
Valuation
6
Final Thoughts
7
Appendix
“Used vehicle prices are the driver of
new car sales. When consumers reach
positive equity on their auto loan, they
trade-in for the new model.”
-Daniel Ruiz, Auto Analyst & Consultant
SWOT Analysis
Strengths
◆ “Recession-resistant” segments over
50% of Gross Profit
◆ Top 2 brands (Honda, Toyota) hold
value over time well
◆ Small luxury market presence
Weaknesses
◆ Highest days supply of inventory of
peer set
◆ Consumer reliance on financing
◆ Revenues highly concentrated in
several high-tax states
Opportunities
◆ Organic growth via Parts and Service
segment
◆ High liquidity and low leverage driving
more dealership acquisitions
Threats
◆ Rising rates and unfavorable tax
changes lock out potential buyers
◆ Vehicle prices fall, extending trade
cycles and reducing sales volume
◆ Tighter auto lending standards
151
Investment Thesis
2
Company Overview
3
Auto Industry Overview
4
Catalysts
5
Valuation
6
Final Thoughts
7
Appendix
Vehicle Sales Projections
◆ A regression on vehicle sales was fit
using a vehicle price index,
manufacturer production,
manufacturer sales, and manufacturer
inventories.
◆ Model predicted over 70% of the
variation in vehicle sales over the
validation data set.
◆ Projecting New Vehicle Sales for 2018
of 15.8M (SAAR) vs. consensus of
16.8M (SAAR)
◆ 6% below consensus, 10% decline Y/Y
◆ 2018 Q1 New Vehicle Sales beat
expectations at 17.48M (SAAR)
◆ Most growth came from lower-tier,
easily-financed brands such as GM
and Fiat Chrysler
◆ Manufacturer and dealer incentives
remained high
◆ We believe this is a short-term rally in
the late-stages of the auto cycle
◆ Confirms forecast for lower vehicle
sales for 2018 and 2019
161
Investment Thesis
2
Company Overview
3
Auto Industry Overview
4
Catalysts
5
Valuation
6
Final Thoughts
7
Appendix
Impact to Lithia’s Divisions
New Vehicle Sales
◆ Longer trade cycles cause decline in
new vehicle sales
◆ Lack of financing options push
consumers towards lower trim
packages
17
Used Vehicle Sales
◆ Drop in used vehicle prices decreases
total revenue
◆ Liquidating used vehicle at wholesale
auction decrease overall gross margin
Parts & Service (P&S)
◆ Price-conscious consumers drive
margins lower
◆ Decrease in vehicle sales cause lower
service demand in the future
Financing & Insurance (F&I)
◆ Tighter lending standards lowers
financing revenue
◆ Consumers who are tight on cash will
purchase less warranty and insurance
features
1
Investment Thesis
2
Company Overview
3
Auto Industry Overview
4
Catalysts
5
Valuation
6
Final Thoughts
7
Appendix
Valuation
DCF – Bull Case (33% as bad as 2008 – 2010) DCF – Base Case (50% as bad as 2008 – 2010)
DCF – Bear Case (80% as bad as 2008 – 2010) 2018 Forward P/E Multiple
181
Investment Thesis
2
Company Overview
3
Auto Industry Overview
4
Catalysts
5
Valuation
6
Final Thoughts
7
Appendix
9.0x 9.5x 10.0x 10.5x 11.0x
8.5% 67.42$ 75.81$ 84.20$ 92.58$ 100.97$
9.0% 63.99$ 72.19$ 80.38$ 88.58$ 96.77$
9.5% 60.66$ 68.67$ 76.68$ 84.69$ 92.69$
10.0% 57.41$ 65.24$ 73.07$ 80.90$ 88.73$
10.5% 54.25$ 61.90$ 69.56$ 77.21$ 84.86$
EBITDA Multiple
WACC
9.0x 9.5x 10.0x 10.5x 11.0x
8.5% 49.02$ 56.65$ 64.29$ 71.92$ 79.56$
9.0% 45.89$ 53.36$ 60.82$ 68.28$ 75.74$
9.5% 42.86$ 50.15$ 57.44$ 64.73$ 72.03$
10.0% 39.90$ 47.03$ 54.16$ 61.29$ 68.41$
10.5% 37.02$ 43.99$ 50.96$ 57.93$ 64.90$
EBITDA Multiple
WACC
9.0x 9.5x 10.0x 10.5x 11.0x
8.5% 59.11$ 67.12$ 75.13$ 83.14$ 91.15$
9.0% 55.83$ 63.66$ 71.49$ 79.32$ 87.14$
9.5% 52.64$ 60.29$ 67.95$ 75.60$ 83.25$
10.0% 49.54$ 57.02$ 64.50$ 71.98$ 79.46$
10.5% 46.52$ 53.83$ 61.15$ 68.46$ 75.77$
EBITDA Multiple
WACC
7.5x 8.0x 8.5x 9.0x 9.5x
8.50$ 63.75$ 68.00$ 72.25$ 76.50$ 80.75$
8.25$ 61.88$ 66.00$ 70.13$ 74.25$ 78.38$
8.00$ 60.00$ 64.00$ 68.00$ 72.00$ 76.00$
7.75$ 58.13$ 62.00$ 65.88$ 69.75$ 73.63$
7.50$ 56.25$ 60.00$ 63.75$ 67.50$ 71.25$
EPS
Forward P/E Multiple
Valuation Overview
191
Investment Thesis
2
Company Overview
3
Auto Industry Overview
4
Catalysts
5
Valuation
6
Final Thoughts
7
Appendix
Target Price $63.00 Previous Close $100.98
FinalThoughts
◆ Lithia Motors, Inc. looks like a value play at current prices. It is our opinion that
the stock is a value trap.
◆ We believe headwinds from the new vehicle market will be stronger than
expected. No mention of trade cycles or subprime delinquencies has been
discussed on Lithia’s earnings calls.
◆ An earnings miss in Q2, downward revised guidance, and analyst downgrades
gives the stock more room to fall in coming months.
◆ We recommend Lithia Motors, Inc. (LAD) as a SHORT with a 12 month price target
of $63, representing a 38% decline from its current price of $100.98
201
Investment Thesis
2
Company Overview
3
Auto Industry Overview
4
Catalysts
5
Valuation
6
Final Thoughts
7
Appendix
Appendix
211
Investment Thesis
2
Company Overview
3
Auto Industry Overview
4
Catalysts
5
Valuation
6
Final Thoughts
7
Appendix
Pro Forma Income Statement
221
Investment Thesis
2
Company Overview
3
Auto Industry Overview
4
Catalysts
5
Valuation
6
Final Thoughts
7
Appendix
2015A 2016A 2017A 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E
Income Statement
New vehicle 4,552,301 4,938,436 5,763,587 5,547,022 4,907,095 5,613,378 6,455,385 7,423,693
Used vehicle 1,927,016 2,226,951 2,544,379 2,467,261 2,173,931 2,479,278 2,851,170 3,278,845
Wholesale used vehicles 261,530 276,616 277,844 230,739 222,549 244,804 269,284 296,213
Finance and insurance 283,018 330,922 385,863 372,944 329,319 375,997 432,397 497,256
Service, body and parts 738,990 844,505 1,015,773 982,614 867,609 928,767 1,050,845 1,208,472
Fleet and other 101,397 60,727 99,063 87,911 81,427 89,570 98,527 108,380
Total Revenue 7,864,252$ 8,678,157$ 10,086,509$ 9,688,491$ 8,581,931$ 9,731,794$ 11,157,607$ 12,812,858$
New vehicle 4,271,931 4,649,024 5,423,744 5,216,893 4,618,237 5,280,732 6,073,549 6,984,872
Used vehicle 1,685,767 1,963,267 2,257,544 2,195,863 1,930,077 2,184,795 2,512,515 2,889,392
Wholesale used vehicles 257,073 272,303 273,057 250,608 220,323 242,356 266,591 293,250
Finance and insurance - - - - - - - -
Service, body and parts 375,069 434,222 522,650 503,464 445,600 477,526 539,665 620,877
Fleet and other 98,778 58,026 93,429 83,561 76,695 83,862 92,738 101,730
Cost of Goods Sold 6,688,618 7,376,842 8,570,424 8,250,388 7,290,933 8,269,271 9,485,058 10,890,122
New vehicle 280,370 289,412 339,843 330,130 288,858 332,646 381,836 438,821
Used vehicle 241,249 263,684 286,835 271,399 243,854 294,483 338,655 389,453
Wholesale used vehicles 4,457 4,313 4,787 (19,869) 2,225 2,448 2,693 2,962
Finance and insurance 283,018 330,922 385,863 372,944 329,319 375,997 432,397 497,256
Service, body and parts 363,921 410,283 493,123 479,150 422,009 451,241 511,180 587,594
Fleet and other 2,619 2,701 5,634 4,350 4,732 5,708 5,789 6,649
Gross Profit 1,175,634 1,301,315 1,516,085 1,438,103 1,290,998 1,462,523 1,672,549 1,922,736
Gross Margin 14.9% 15.0% 15.0% 14.8% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0%
Asset impairments charges 20,124 13,992 - - - - - -
SG&A 811,175 899,590 1,049,378 1,017,292 901,103 1,021,838 1,171,549 1,345,350
Depreciation and Amortization 41,600 49,369 57,722 53,979 47,814 54,220 62,164 71,386
Total Operating Expenses 872,899 962,951 1,107,100 1,071,270 948,917 1,076,059 1,233,713 1,416,736
Operating Income 302,735 338,364 408,985 366,832 342,082 386,465 438,837 506,000
Operating Margin 3.8% 3.9% 4.1% 3.8% 4.0% 4.0% 3.9% 3.9%
Floor plan interest expense 19534 25,531 39,336 52,887 61,821 72,265 84,475 98,750
Other interest expense 19491 23,207 34,776 52,963 52,963 52,962 52,962 52,962
Other (income) expense, net 1006 6,103 (3,085) - - - - -
Total Other Expenses 40,031 54,841 71,027 105,850 114,784 125,227 137,437 151,712
Earnings Before Taxes 262,704 283,523 337,958 260,982 227,298 261,237 301,400 354,288
Corporate Taxes 79,705 86,465 98,429 70,465 61,370 70,534 81,378 95,658
Net Earnings 182,999$ 197,058$ 239,529$ 190,517$ 165,928$ 190,703$ 220,022$ 258,630$
Net Margin 2.33% 2.27% 2.37% 1.97% 1.93% 1.96% 1.97% 2.02%
Fiscal Year Ended
Pro Forma Balance Sheet
231
Investment Thesis
2
Company Overview
3
Auto Industry Overview
4
Catalysts
5
Valuation
6
Final Thoughts
7
Appendix
2015A 2016A 2017A 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E
Balance Statement
Current Assets:
Cash and cash equivalents 45,008 50,282 57,253 89,455 146,239 179,991 265,568 240,207
Accounts Receivable 308,462 417,714 521,938 575,344 573,572 576,021 541,439 622,056
Inventories, net 1,470,987 1,772,587 2,132,744 2,534,765 3,012,567 3,580,434 4,255,344 5,057,475
Other current assets 54,022 46,611 70,847 72,435 85,607 102,366 120,415 143,750
Total Current Assets 1,878,479 2,287,194 2,782,782 3,271,999 3,817,985 4,438,813 5,182,767 6,063,488
Property and equipment, net 876,660 1,006,130 1,185,169 1,230,480 1,270,616 1,316,130 1,368,312 1,428,236
Goodwill 213,220 259,399 256,320 256,320 256,320 256,320 256,320 256,320
Franchise value 157,699 184,268 186,977 186,977 186,977 186,977 186,977 186,977
Other non-current assets 99,072 107,159 271,818 271,818 271,818 271,818 271,818 271,818
Total Non-Current Assets 1,346,651 1,556,956 1,900,284 1,945,595 1,985,731 2,031,245 2,083,427 2,143,351
Total Assets 3,225,130 3,844,150 4,683,066 5,217,594 5,803,716 6,470,058 7,266,194 8,206,839
Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity
Current Liabilities:
Floor Plan Notes Payable 48,083 94,602 116,774 138,786 164,947 196,039 232,993 276,912
Floor plan notes payable: non-trade 1,265,872 1,506,895 1,802,252 2,104,328 2,457,035 2,868,859 3,349,709 3,911,155
Current maturities of long-term debt 38,506 20,965 18,876 - - - - -
Trade payables 70,871 88,423 111,362 129,958 154,455 183,570 218,173 259,298
Accrued liabilities 167,107 211,109 251,717 302,833 362,622 428,633 510,612 606,777
Total Current Liabilities 1,590,439 1,921,994 2,300,981 2,675,904 3,139,059 3,677,101 4,311,486 5,054,142
Long-term debt, less current maturities 604,680 769,916 1,028,476 1,028,468 1,028,460 1,028,452 1,028,444 1,028,436
Deferred revenue 66,734 81,929 103,111 103,111 103,111 103,111 103,111 103,111
Deferred income taxes 53,129 59,075 56,277 56,277 56,277 56,277 56,277 56,277
Other long-term liabilities 81,984 100,460 111,003 130,003 130,003 130,003 130,003 130,003
Total Non-Current Liabilities 806,527 1,011,380 1,298,867 1,317,859 1,317,851 1,317,843 1,317,835 1,317,827
Total Liabilities 2,396,966 2,933,374 3,599,848 3,993,763 4,456,910 4,994,944 5,629,321 6,371,969
Stockholders' Equity:
Class A common stock 258,410 165,512 149,123 127,481 114,785 85,140 61,667 38,498
Class B common stock 316 219 124 - - - - -
Additional paid-in capital 38,822 41,225 11,309 11,309 11,309 11,309 11,309 11,309
Accumulated other comprehensive loss (277) - - - - - -
Retained earnings 530,893 703,820 922,662 1,085,040 1,220,712 1,378,665 1,563,897 1,785,063
Total Stockholders' Equity 828,164 910,776 1,083,218 1,223,831 1,346,806 1,475,114 1,636,873 1,834,870
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity 3,225,130 3,844,150 4,683,066 5,217,594 5,803,716 6,470,058 7,266,194 8,206,839
Fiscal Year Ended
Pro Forma Cash Flow Statement
241
Investment Thesis
2
Company Overview
3
Auto Industry Overview
4
Catalysts
5
Valuation
6
Final Thoughts
7
Appendix
2015A 2016A 2017A 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E
Cash Flow Statement
Cash From Operating Activities
Net Income 182,999 197,058 245,217 190,517 165,928 190,703 220,022 258,630
Depreciation & Amortization 41,600 49,369 57,722 53,979 47,814 54,220 62,164 71,386
Stock-Based Compensation 6,859 11,047 11,272 8,358 9,303 10,356 11,527 12,830
Deferred Income Taxes 12,341 10,138 (2,798) - - - - -
Other Non-Cash Adj 16,884 22,415 10,394 - - - - -
(Inc) Dec in Accts Receiv (13,047) (105,961) (57,360) (53,406) 1,772 (2,449) 34,582 (80,617)
(Inc) Dec in Inventories (197,079) (168,847) (193,099) (402,021) (477,802) (567,867) (674,910) (802,130)
Inc (Dec) in Accts Payable 674 16,449 20,008 - - - - -
(Inc) Dec in Other Current Assets - - - (1,588) (13,173) (16,759) (18,049) (23,335)
Inc (Dec) in Floor Plan Notes Payable - - - 22,012 26,161 31,092 36,953 43,919
Inc (Dec) in Floor Plan Notes Payable Non Trade - - - 302,076 352,707 411,824 480,850 561,446
Inc (Dec) in Trade Payable - - - 18,596 24,497 29,115 34,603 41,125
Inc (Dec) in Accrued Liabilities - - - 51,116 59,790 66,010 81,979 96,166
Inc (Dec) in Other 23,308 59,237 57,500 - - - - -
Net Cash From Disc Ops - - - - - - - -
Cash from Operating Activities 74,539 90,905 148,856 189,638 196,997 206,246 269,721 179,420
Cash from Investing Activities
Disp of Fixed Prod Assets 270 2,211 15,201 - - - - -
Disp of Intangible Assets - - - - - - - -
Acq of Fixed Prod Assets (83,244) (100,761) (105,378) (99,290) (87,950) (99,734) (114,346) (131,309)
Acq of Intangible Assets - - - - - - - -
Dec in LT Investment - - - - - - - -
Inc in LT Investment - - - - - - - -
Cash from Divestitures 12,966 11,837 20,943 - - - - -
Cash for Acq of Subs (71,615) (234,700) (460,394) - - - - -
Cash for JVs - - - - - - - -
Other Investing Activities (28,110) (30,280) (8,570) - - - - -
Net Cash From Disc Ops - - - - - - - -
Cash from Investing Activities (169,733) (351,693) (538,198) (99,290) (87,950) (99,734) (114,346) (131,309)
Cash from Financing Activities
Dividends Paid (19,985) (24,131) (26,544) (28,139) (30,256) (32,751) (34,790) (37,464)
Cash Used in Maturity on Debt - - - - - - - -
Cash From (Repay) ST Debt 99,678 374,154 159,762 - - - - -
Cash From LT Debt 75,675 66,466 395,905 - - - - -
Repayments of LT Debt (24,593) (44,420) (68,506) (8) (8) (8) (8) (8)
Increase in Capital Stock 11,077 6,932 7,509 - - - - -
Decrease in Capital Stock (31,548) (112,939) (33,753) (30,000) (22,000) (40,000) (35,000) (36,000)
Other Financing Activities - - (38,060) - - - - -
Net Cash From Disc Ops - - - - - - - -
Cash from Financing Activities 110,304 266,062 396,313 (58,147) (52,264) (72,759) (69,798) (73,472)
Net Changes in Cash 15,110 5,274 6,971 32,202 56,784 33,753 85,577 (25,361)
Beginning Cash 45,008 50,282 57,253 89,455 146,239 179,991 265,568
Ending Cash 45,008 50,282 57,253 89,455 146,239 179,991 265,568 240,207
Fiscal Year Ended

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Lithia Motors (LAD) Short Pitch

  • 1. NYSE: LAD Brenna Driver | Marc Feldman | Tyler Schroeder | Garrett Stein 1
  • 2. Index Investment Thesis Company Overview Auto Industry Overview Catalysts Valuation Final Thoughts Appendix 2 3 4 10 14 18 20 21
  • 3. InvestmentThesis The Market Consensus ◆ Lithia carries the highest Analyst Rating and valuation of its competitor set ◆ Lithia will continue to outperform its peers, despite weak vehicle demand ◆ Lithia is a safe stock for auto exposure 3 Where the Market is Wrong ◆ Lithia’s business model is not “recession resistant” as investor presentation claims ◆ New Car Sales have been temporarily kept afloat by easy credit, longer-term loans, and high incentives Catalysts to Correction ◆ Earnings Miss in Q2 ◆ Analyst downgrades ◆ Management guidance revised downward Projected Downside ◆ We recommend Lithia Motors, Inc. as a SHORT with a 12 month price target of $63, representing 38% downside potential from its current price of $100.98 1 Investment Thesis 2 Company Overview 3 Auto Industry Overview 4 Catalysts 5 Valuation 6 Final Thoughts 7 Appendix
  • 4. Company Overview Operations ◆ Operate 185 dealerships in 18 states ◆ CA, OR, and NJ accounted for 52% of FY17 Revenue ◆ Dealers fall under franchise agreements with manufacturers 4 Acquisition-Driven Growth Strategy ◆ Purchased 18 stores in 2017 for $1.7B Financials ◆ Lowest leverage of peer set ◆ Industry-leading liquidity ◆ Lots of dry powder for acquisitions Source: Lithia Motors, Inc. Investor Presentation 3/31/2018 1 Investment Thesis 2 Company Overview 3 Auto Industry Overview 4 Catalysts 5 Valuation 6 Final Thoughts 7 Appendix
  • 5. Operating Divisions New Vehicle Sales ◆ Offer 30+ brands ◆ 54% of New Vehicles Sales were Chrysler, Honda, or Toyota ◆ Drives P&S revenue on a 2-3 year lag 5 Used Vehicle Sales ◆ Opportunity to sell to those unable or unwilling to buy new ◆ Chance to increase vehicle sales by aggressively pursuing trade-ins Parts and Service (P&S) ◆ High margin business that is less sensitive to downturns ◆ Provides repeat revenues to stores ◆ Operates 20+ collision repair centers Financing and Insurance (F&I) ◆ 75% of vehicles sold in 2017 by the company were financed ◆ Warranties and insurance products complement P&S 1 Investment Thesis 2 Company Overview 3 Auto Industry Overview 4 Catalysts 5 Valuation 6 Final Thoughts 7 Appendix
  • 6. Segment Breakdown ◆ Management has used vehicle sales to drive growth in high-margin P&S line ◆ F&I poses risk to bottom line when lending standards are tightened ◆ Slow down in vehicle sales will negatively impact P&S ◆ Small changes in revenue for F&I and P&S can have major bottom line implications 6 0.4% 32.5% 25.5% 19.2% 22.4% 1.0% 10.1% 3.8% 28.0% 57.1% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% Fleet and other Service, body and parts Finance and insurance Used vehicle New vehicle Contribution to Revenue and Gross Profit by Segment Percentage of Revenue Percentage of Gross Profit Source: Lithia Motors, Inc. 10-K 1 Investment Thesis 2 Company Overview 3 Auto Industry Overview 4 Catalysts 5 Valuation 6 Final Thoughts 7 Appendix
  • 7. 2018 Management Guidance Growth Less Acquisitions ◆ Implied organic revenue growth: 8.6% ◆ Implied organic EPS growth: 12.9% ◆ Given new vehicle headwinds, guidance set far too high 7 Management Revenue Guidance Marginal Effect of Acquisitions Management EPS Guidance 1 Investment Thesis 2 Company Overview 3 Auto Industry Overview 4 Catalysts 5 Valuation 6 Final Thoughts 7 Appendix
  • 8. Dealership Overview 8 ◆ Auto dealership industry undergoing consolidation ◆ Online retailers put pressure on margins and pricing power ◆ Increasing technology needs make economies of scale more pronounced ◆ Consolidation likely to continue, driving returns lower 1 Investment Thesis 2 Company Overview 3 Auto Industry Overview 4 Catalysts 5 Valuation 6 Final Thoughts 7 Appendix
  • 9. High Expectations EV/EBITDA EV/EBIT EV/Sales P/E Forward P/E Price/Sales LAD 11.62 13.26 0.54 12.21 9.47 0.25 ABG 9.43 10.48 0.47 10.48 8.87 0.22 AN 10.72 12.73 0.50 11.91 9.49 0.21 GPI 10.66 12.47 0.38 8.55 7.55 0.12 PAG 13.77 15.91 0.45 10.29 8.74 0.18 SAH 11.10 15.77 0.34 10.20 8.34 0.08 High 13.77 15.91 0.50 11.91 9.49 0.22 Mean 11.13 13.47 0.43 10.29 8.60 0.16 Median 10.72 12.73 0.45 10.29 8.74 0.18 Low 9.43 10.48 0.34 8.55 7.55 0.08 LAD Rank 2 3 1 1 2 1 Source: Bloomberg Based on T12M excluding Forward P/E 9 Ticker Company Analyst Rating LAD Lithia Motors, Inc. 4.60 PAG Penske Automotive Group, Inc. 4.40 ABG Asbury Automotive Group, Inc. 3.36 AN AutoNation Inc. 3.25 GPI Group 1 Automotive Inc. 3.00 SAH Sonic Automotive Inc. 3.00 Source: Bloomberg Ratings Scale is 1 (Sell) to 5 (Buy) 1 Investment Thesis 2 Company Overview 3 Auto Industry Overview 4 Catalysts 5 Valuation 6 Final Thoughts 7 Appendix
  • 10. Auto Industry Overview ◆ Auto sales slumped during the Great Recession ◆ Manufacturers and dealerships were rescued by Cash For Clunkers ◆ New Car Sales boomed from 2010 to 2015 ◆ Delinquencies on Subprime Auto Loans are nearing pre-financial-crisis levels of 10% 10 Source: Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, St. Louis FRED 1 Investment Thesis 2 Company Overview 3 Auto Industry Overview 4 Catalysts 5 Valuation 6 Final Thoughts 7 Appendix
  • 11. Auto Credit Repossession in California “The number of cars we’ve towed in the past couple of months has increased significantly.” -Gary Rayburn, Cal-Coast Recovery 11 Lending Environment Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence ◆ S&P Global raises forecasted losses for ABSs primarily in Western U.S. ◆ Average credit score for prime and subprime rising ◆ Auto Finance companies de-risking 1 Investment Thesis 2 Company Overview 3 Auto Industry Overview 4 Catalysts 5 Valuation 6 Final Thoughts 7 Appendix
  • 12. Inventory and Retail Sales ◆ Manufacturer inventories fell to 6 year lows due to decreases in production ◆ Retail sales are stable ◆ Divergence suggests manufacturers aware of impending supply glut ◆ Increases in vehicle leasing have led to large used vehicle inventories ◆ Used car prices are falling due to an inventory surplus 12 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis All data seasonally-adjusted, Retail Sales shown at annualized rate 1 Investment Thesis 2 Company Overview 3 Auto Industry Overview 4 Catalysts 5 Valuation 6 Final Thoughts 7 Appendix
  • 13. Trade Cycle Extension ◆ Steadily rising used car prices from 2011-2016 shortened trade cycles, which increased new car sales velocity ◆ As used car prices fall, trade cycles lengthen ◆ Borrowers on longer loan terms (typically poor credit) feel greater impact from falling vehicle prices 13 Source: Blinders Off LLC 1 Investment Thesis 2 Company Overview 3 Auto Industry Overview 4 Catalysts 5 Valuation 6 Final Thoughts 7 Appendix
  • 14. Race to the Bottom 14 Used Vehicle Values Drop Trade Cycles Lengthen Sales Velocity Slows Day Supply Grows Incentives Rise Production Slows 1 Investment Thesis 2 Company Overview 3 Auto Industry Overview 4 Catalysts 5 Valuation 6 Final Thoughts 7 Appendix “Used vehicle prices are the driver of new car sales. When consumers reach positive equity on their auto loan, they trade-in for the new model.” -Daniel Ruiz, Auto Analyst & Consultant
  • 15. SWOT Analysis Strengths ◆ “Recession-resistant” segments over 50% of Gross Profit ◆ Top 2 brands (Honda, Toyota) hold value over time well ◆ Small luxury market presence Weaknesses ◆ Highest days supply of inventory of peer set ◆ Consumer reliance on financing ◆ Revenues highly concentrated in several high-tax states Opportunities ◆ Organic growth via Parts and Service segment ◆ High liquidity and low leverage driving more dealership acquisitions Threats ◆ Rising rates and unfavorable tax changes lock out potential buyers ◆ Vehicle prices fall, extending trade cycles and reducing sales volume ◆ Tighter auto lending standards 151 Investment Thesis 2 Company Overview 3 Auto Industry Overview 4 Catalysts 5 Valuation 6 Final Thoughts 7 Appendix
  • 16. Vehicle Sales Projections ◆ A regression on vehicle sales was fit using a vehicle price index, manufacturer production, manufacturer sales, and manufacturer inventories. ◆ Model predicted over 70% of the variation in vehicle sales over the validation data set. ◆ Projecting New Vehicle Sales for 2018 of 15.8M (SAAR) vs. consensus of 16.8M (SAAR) ◆ 6% below consensus, 10% decline Y/Y ◆ 2018 Q1 New Vehicle Sales beat expectations at 17.48M (SAAR) ◆ Most growth came from lower-tier, easily-financed brands such as GM and Fiat Chrysler ◆ Manufacturer and dealer incentives remained high ◆ We believe this is a short-term rally in the late-stages of the auto cycle ◆ Confirms forecast for lower vehicle sales for 2018 and 2019 161 Investment Thesis 2 Company Overview 3 Auto Industry Overview 4 Catalysts 5 Valuation 6 Final Thoughts 7 Appendix
  • 17. Impact to Lithia’s Divisions New Vehicle Sales ◆ Longer trade cycles cause decline in new vehicle sales ◆ Lack of financing options push consumers towards lower trim packages 17 Used Vehicle Sales ◆ Drop in used vehicle prices decreases total revenue ◆ Liquidating used vehicle at wholesale auction decrease overall gross margin Parts & Service (P&S) ◆ Price-conscious consumers drive margins lower ◆ Decrease in vehicle sales cause lower service demand in the future Financing & Insurance (F&I) ◆ Tighter lending standards lowers financing revenue ◆ Consumers who are tight on cash will purchase less warranty and insurance features 1 Investment Thesis 2 Company Overview 3 Auto Industry Overview 4 Catalysts 5 Valuation 6 Final Thoughts 7 Appendix
  • 18. Valuation DCF – Bull Case (33% as bad as 2008 – 2010) DCF – Base Case (50% as bad as 2008 – 2010) DCF – Bear Case (80% as bad as 2008 – 2010) 2018 Forward P/E Multiple 181 Investment Thesis 2 Company Overview 3 Auto Industry Overview 4 Catalysts 5 Valuation 6 Final Thoughts 7 Appendix 9.0x 9.5x 10.0x 10.5x 11.0x 8.5% 67.42$ 75.81$ 84.20$ 92.58$ 100.97$ 9.0% 63.99$ 72.19$ 80.38$ 88.58$ 96.77$ 9.5% 60.66$ 68.67$ 76.68$ 84.69$ 92.69$ 10.0% 57.41$ 65.24$ 73.07$ 80.90$ 88.73$ 10.5% 54.25$ 61.90$ 69.56$ 77.21$ 84.86$ EBITDA Multiple WACC 9.0x 9.5x 10.0x 10.5x 11.0x 8.5% 49.02$ 56.65$ 64.29$ 71.92$ 79.56$ 9.0% 45.89$ 53.36$ 60.82$ 68.28$ 75.74$ 9.5% 42.86$ 50.15$ 57.44$ 64.73$ 72.03$ 10.0% 39.90$ 47.03$ 54.16$ 61.29$ 68.41$ 10.5% 37.02$ 43.99$ 50.96$ 57.93$ 64.90$ EBITDA Multiple WACC 9.0x 9.5x 10.0x 10.5x 11.0x 8.5% 59.11$ 67.12$ 75.13$ 83.14$ 91.15$ 9.0% 55.83$ 63.66$ 71.49$ 79.32$ 87.14$ 9.5% 52.64$ 60.29$ 67.95$ 75.60$ 83.25$ 10.0% 49.54$ 57.02$ 64.50$ 71.98$ 79.46$ 10.5% 46.52$ 53.83$ 61.15$ 68.46$ 75.77$ EBITDA Multiple WACC 7.5x 8.0x 8.5x 9.0x 9.5x 8.50$ 63.75$ 68.00$ 72.25$ 76.50$ 80.75$ 8.25$ 61.88$ 66.00$ 70.13$ 74.25$ 78.38$ 8.00$ 60.00$ 64.00$ 68.00$ 72.00$ 76.00$ 7.75$ 58.13$ 62.00$ 65.88$ 69.75$ 73.63$ 7.50$ 56.25$ 60.00$ 63.75$ 67.50$ 71.25$ EPS Forward P/E Multiple
  • 19. Valuation Overview 191 Investment Thesis 2 Company Overview 3 Auto Industry Overview 4 Catalysts 5 Valuation 6 Final Thoughts 7 Appendix Target Price $63.00 Previous Close $100.98
  • 20. FinalThoughts ◆ Lithia Motors, Inc. looks like a value play at current prices. It is our opinion that the stock is a value trap. ◆ We believe headwinds from the new vehicle market will be stronger than expected. No mention of trade cycles or subprime delinquencies has been discussed on Lithia’s earnings calls. ◆ An earnings miss in Q2, downward revised guidance, and analyst downgrades gives the stock more room to fall in coming months. ◆ We recommend Lithia Motors, Inc. (LAD) as a SHORT with a 12 month price target of $63, representing a 38% decline from its current price of $100.98 201 Investment Thesis 2 Company Overview 3 Auto Industry Overview 4 Catalysts 5 Valuation 6 Final Thoughts 7 Appendix
  • 21. Appendix 211 Investment Thesis 2 Company Overview 3 Auto Industry Overview 4 Catalysts 5 Valuation 6 Final Thoughts 7 Appendix
  • 22. Pro Forma Income Statement 221 Investment Thesis 2 Company Overview 3 Auto Industry Overview 4 Catalysts 5 Valuation 6 Final Thoughts 7 Appendix 2015A 2016A 2017A 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E Income Statement New vehicle 4,552,301 4,938,436 5,763,587 5,547,022 4,907,095 5,613,378 6,455,385 7,423,693 Used vehicle 1,927,016 2,226,951 2,544,379 2,467,261 2,173,931 2,479,278 2,851,170 3,278,845 Wholesale used vehicles 261,530 276,616 277,844 230,739 222,549 244,804 269,284 296,213 Finance and insurance 283,018 330,922 385,863 372,944 329,319 375,997 432,397 497,256 Service, body and parts 738,990 844,505 1,015,773 982,614 867,609 928,767 1,050,845 1,208,472 Fleet and other 101,397 60,727 99,063 87,911 81,427 89,570 98,527 108,380 Total Revenue 7,864,252$ 8,678,157$ 10,086,509$ 9,688,491$ 8,581,931$ 9,731,794$ 11,157,607$ 12,812,858$ New vehicle 4,271,931 4,649,024 5,423,744 5,216,893 4,618,237 5,280,732 6,073,549 6,984,872 Used vehicle 1,685,767 1,963,267 2,257,544 2,195,863 1,930,077 2,184,795 2,512,515 2,889,392 Wholesale used vehicles 257,073 272,303 273,057 250,608 220,323 242,356 266,591 293,250 Finance and insurance - - - - - - - - Service, body and parts 375,069 434,222 522,650 503,464 445,600 477,526 539,665 620,877 Fleet and other 98,778 58,026 93,429 83,561 76,695 83,862 92,738 101,730 Cost of Goods Sold 6,688,618 7,376,842 8,570,424 8,250,388 7,290,933 8,269,271 9,485,058 10,890,122 New vehicle 280,370 289,412 339,843 330,130 288,858 332,646 381,836 438,821 Used vehicle 241,249 263,684 286,835 271,399 243,854 294,483 338,655 389,453 Wholesale used vehicles 4,457 4,313 4,787 (19,869) 2,225 2,448 2,693 2,962 Finance and insurance 283,018 330,922 385,863 372,944 329,319 375,997 432,397 497,256 Service, body and parts 363,921 410,283 493,123 479,150 422,009 451,241 511,180 587,594 Fleet and other 2,619 2,701 5,634 4,350 4,732 5,708 5,789 6,649 Gross Profit 1,175,634 1,301,315 1,516,085 1,438,103 1,290,998 1,462,523 1,672,549 1,922,736 Gross Margin 14.9% 15.0% 15.0% 14.8% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% Asset impairments charges 20,124 13,992 - - - - - - SG&A 811,175 899,590 1,049,378 1,017,292 901,103 1,021,838 1,171,549 1,345,350 Depreciation and Amortization 41,600 49,369 57,722 53,979 47,814 54,220 62,164 71,386 Total Operating Expenses 872,899 962,951 1,107,100 1,071,270 948,917 1,076,059 1,233,713 1,416,736 Operating Income 302,735 338,364 408,985 366,832 342,082 386,465 438,837 506,000 Operating Margin 3.8% 3.9% 4.1% 3.8% 4.0% 4.0% 3.9% 3.9% Floor plan interest expense 19534 25,531 39,336 52,887 61,821 72,265 84,475 98,750 Other interest expense 19491 23,207 34,776 52,963 52,963 52,962 52,962 52,962 Other (income) expense, net 1006 6,103 (3,085) - - - - - Total Other Expenses 40,031 54,841 71,027 105,850 114,784 125,227 137,437 151,712 Earnings Before Taxes 262,704 283,523 337,958 260,982 227,298 261,237 301,400 354,288 Corporate Taxes 79,705 86,465 98,429 70,465 61,370 70,534 81,378 95,658 Net Earnings 182,999$ 197,058$ 239,529$ 190,517$ 165,928$ 190,703$ 220,022$ 258,630$ Net Margin 2.33% 2.27% 2.37% 1.97% 1.93% 1.96% 1.97% 2.02% Fiscal Year Ended
  • 23. Pro Forma Balance Sheet 231 Investment Thesis 2 Company Overview 3 Auto Industry Overview 4 Catalysts 5 Valuation 6 Final Thoughts 7 Appendix 2015A 2016A 2017A 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E Balance Statement Current Assets: Cash and cash equivalents 45,008 50,282 57,253 89,455 146,239 179,991 265,568 240,207 Accounts Receivable 308,462 417,714 521,938 575,344 573,572 576,021 541,439 622,056 Inventories, net 1,470,987 1,772,587 2,132,744 2,534,765 3,012,567 3,580,434 4,255,344 5,057,475 Other current assets 54,022 46,611 70,847 72,435 85,607 102,366 120,415 143,750 Total Current Assets 1,878,479 2,287,194 2,782,782 3,271,999 3,817,985 4,438,813 5,182,767 6,063,488 Property and equipment, net 876,660 1,006,130 1,185,169 1,230,480 1,270,616 1,316,130 1,368,312 1,428,236 Goodwill 213,220 259,399 256,320 256,320 256,320 256,320 256,320 256,320 Franchise value 157,699 184,268 186,977 186,977 186,977 186,977 186,977 186,977 Other non-current assets 99,072 107,159 271,818 271,818 271,818 271,818 271,818 271,818 Total Non-Current Assets 1,346,651 1,556,956 1,900,284 1,945,595 1,985,731 2,031,245 2,083,427 2,143,351 Total Assets 3,225,130 3,844,150 4,683,066 5,217,594 5,803,716 6,470,058 7,266,194 8,206,839 Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity Current Liabilities: Floor Plan Notes Payable 48,083 94,602 116,774 138,786 164,947 196,039 232,993 276,912 Floor plan notes payable: non-trade 1,265,872 1,506,895 1,802,252 2,104,328 2,457,035 2,868,859 3,349,709 3,911,155 Current maturities of long-term debt 38,506 20,965 18,876 - - - - - Trade payables 70,871 88,423 111,362 129,958 154,455 183,570 218,173 259,298 Accrued liabilities 167,107 211,109 251,717 302,833 362,622 428,633 510,612 606,777 Total Current Liabilities 1,590,439 1,921,994 2,300,981 2,675,904 3,139,059 3,677,101 4,311,486 5,054,142 Long-term debt, less current maturities 604,680 769,916 1,028,476 1,028,468 1,028,460 1,028,452 1,028,444 1,028,436 Deferred revenue 66,734 81,929 103,111 103,111 103,111 103,111 103,111 103,111 Deferred income taxes 53,129 59,075 56,277 56,277 56,277 56,277 56,277 56,277 Other long-term liabilities 81,984 100,460 111,003 130,003 130,003 130,003 130,003 130,003 Total Non-Current Liabilities 806,527 1,011,380 1,298,867 1,317,859 1,317,851 1,317,843 1,317,835 1,317,827 Total Liabilities 2,396,966 2,933,374 3,599,848 3,993,763 4,456,910 4,994,944 5,629,321 6,371,969 Stockholders' Equity: Class A common stock 258,410 165,512 149,123 127,481 114,785 85,140 61,667 38,498 Class B common stock 316 219 124 - - - - - Additional paid-in capital 38,822 41,225 11,309 11,309 11,309 11,309 11,309 11,309 Accumulated other comprehensive loss (277) - - - - - - Retained earnings 530,893 703,820 922,662 1,085,040 1,220,712 1,378,665 1,563,897 1,785,063 Total Stockholders' Equity 828,164 910,776 1,083,218 1,223,831 1,346,806 1,475,114 1,636,873 1,834,870 Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity 3,225,130 3,844,150 4,683,066 5,217,594 5,803,716 6,470,058 7,266,194 8,206,839 Fiscal Year Ended
  • 24. Pro Forma Cash Flow Statement 241 Investment Thesis 2 Company Overview 3 Auto Industry Overview 4 Catalysts 5 Valuation 6 Final Thoughts 7 Appendix 2015A 2016A 2017A 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E Cash Flow Statement Cash From Operating Activities Net Income 182,999 197,058 245,217 190,517 165,928 190,703 220,022 258,630 Depreciation & Amortization 41,600 49,369 57,722 53,979 47,814 54,220 62,164 71,386 Stock-Based Compensation 6,859 11,047 11,272 8,358 9,303 10,356 11,527 12,830 Deferred Income Taxes 12,341 10,138 (2,798) - - - - - Other Non-Cash Adj 16,884 22,415 10,394 - - - - - (Inc) Dec in Accts Receiv (13,047) (105,961) (57,360) (53,406) 1,772 (2,449) 34,582 (80,617) (Inc) Dec in Inventories (197,079) (168,847) (193,099) (402,021) (477,802) (567,867) (674,910) (802,130) Inc (Dec) in Accts Payable 674 16,449 20,008 - - - - - (Inc) Dec in Other Current Assets - - - (1,588) (13,173) (16,759) (18,049) (23,335) Inc (Dec) in Floor Plan Notes Payable - - - 22,012 26,161 31,092 36,953 43,919 Inc (Dec) in Floor Plan Notes Payable Non Trade - - - 302,076 352,707 411,824 480,850 561,446 Inc (Dec) in Trade Payable - - - 18,596 24,497 29,115 34,603 41,125 Inc (Dec) in Accrued Liabilities - - - 51,116 59,790 66,010 81,979 96,166 Inc (Dec) in Other 23,308 59,237 57,500 - - - - - Net Cash From Disc Ops - - - - - - - - Cash from Operating Activities 74,539 90,905 148,856 189,638 196,997 206,246 269,721 179,420 Cash from Investing Activities Disp of Fixed Prod Assets 270 2,211 15,201 - - - - - Disp of Intangible Assets - - - - - - - - Acq of Fixed Prod Assets (83,244) (100,761) (105,378) (99,290) (87,950) (99,734) (114,346) (131,309) Acq of Intangible Assets - - - - - - - - Dec in LT Investment - - - - - - - - Inc in LT Investment - - - - - - - - Cash from Divestitures 12,966 11,837 20,943 - - - - - Cash for Acq of Subs (71,615) (234,700) (460,394) - - - - - Cash for JVs - - - - - - - - Other Investing Activities (28,110) (30,280) (8,570) - - - - - Net Cash From Disc Ops - - - - - - - - Cash from Investing Activities (169,733) (351,693) (538,198) (99,290) (87,950) (99,734) (114,346) (131,309) Cash from Financing Activities Dividends Paid (19,985) (24,131) (26,544) (28,139) (30,256) (32,751) (34,790) (37,464) Cash Used in Maturity on Debt - - - - - - - - Cash From (Repay) ST Debt 99,678 374,154 159,762 - - - - - Cash From LT Debt 75,675 66,466 395,905 - - - - - Repayments of LT Debt (24,593) (44,420) (68,506) (8) (8) (8) (8) (8) Increase in Capital Stock 11,077 6,932 7,509 - - - - - Decrease in Capital Stock (31,548) (112,939) (33,753) (30,000) (22,000) (40,000) (35,000) (36,000) Other Financing Activities - - (38,060) - - - - - Net Cash From Disc Ops - - - - - - - - Cash from Financing Activities 110,304 266,062 396,313 (58,147) (52,264) (72,759) (69,798) (73,472) Net Changes in Cash 15,110 5,274 6,971 32,202 56,784 33,753 85,577 (25,361) Beginning Cash 45,008 50,282 57,253 89,455 146,239 179,991 265,568 Ending Cash 45,008 50,282 57,253 89,455 146,239 179,991 265,568 240,207 Fiscal Year Ended