3. InvestmentThesis
The Market Consensus
◆ Lithia carries the highest Analyst Rating
and valuation of its competitor set
◆ Lithia will continue to outperform its
peers, despite weak vehicle demand
◆ Lithia is a safe stock for auto exposure
3
Where the Market is Wrong
◆ Lithia’s business model is not “recession
resistant” as investor presentation claims
◆ New Car Sales have been temporarily
kept afloat by easy credit, longer-term
loans, and high incentives
Catalysts to Correction
◆ Earnings Miss in Q2
◆ Analyst downgrades
◆ Management guidance revised
downward
Projected Downside
◆ We recommend Lithia Motors, Inc. as a
SHORT with a 12 month price target of
$63, representing 38% downside
potential from its current price of $100.98
1
Investment Thesis
2
Company Overview
3
Auto Industry Overview
4
Catalysts
5
Valuation
6
Final Thoughts
7
Appendix
4. Company Overview
Operations
◆ Operate 185 dealerships in 18 states
◆ CA, OR, and NJ accounted for 52% of
FY17 Revenue
◆ Dealers fall under franchise
agreements with manufacturers
4
Acquisition-Driven Growth Strategy
◆ Purchased 18 stores in 2017 for $1.7B
Financials
◆ Lowest leverage of peer set
◆ Industry-leading liquidity
◆ Lots of dry powder for acquisitions
Source: Lithia Motors, Inc. Investor Presentation 3/31/2018
1
Investment Thesis
2
Company Overview
3
Auto Industry Overview
4
Catalysts
5
Valuation
6
Final Thoughts
7
Appendix
5. Operating Divisions
New Vehicle Sales
◆ Offer 30+ brands
◆ 54% of New Vehicles Sales were
Chrysler, Honda, or Toyota
◆ Drives P&S revenue on a 2-3 year lag
5
Used Vehicle Sales
◆ Opportunity to sell to those unable or
unwilling to buy new
◆ Chance to increase vehicle sales by
aggressively pursuing trade-ins
Parts and Service (P&S)
◆ High margin business that is less
sensitive to downturns
◆ Provides repeat revenues to stores
◆ Operates 20+ collision repair centers
Financing and Insurance (F&I)
◆ 75% of vehicles sold in 2017 by the
company were financed
◆ Warranties and insurance products
complement P&S
1
Investment Thesis
2
Company Overview
3
Auto Industry Overview
4
Catalysts
5
Valuation
6
Final Thoughts
7
Appendix
6. Segment Breakdown
◆ Management has used vehicle sales to
drive growth in high-margin P&S line
◆ F&I poses risk to bottom line when
lending standards are tightened
◆ Slow down in vehicle sales will
negatively impact P&S
◆ Small changes in revenue for F&I and
P&S can have major bottom line
implications
6
0.4%
32.5%
25.5%
19.2%
22.4%
1.0%
10.1%
3.8%
28.0%
57.1%
0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0%
Fleet and other
Service, body and parts
Finance and insurance
Used vehicle
New vehicle
Contribution to Revenue and Gross Profit by Segment
Percentage of Revenue Percentage of Gross Profit
Source: Lithia Motors, Inc. 10-K
1
Investment Thesis
2
Company Overview
3
Auto Industry Overview
4
Catalysts
5
Valuation
6
Final Thoughts
7
Appendix
7. 2018 Management Guidance
Growth Less Acquisitions
◆ Implied organic revenue growth: 8.6%
◆ Implied organic EPS growth: 12.9%
◆ Given new vehicle headwinds,
guidance set far too high
7
Management Revenue Guidance
Marginal Effect of Acquisitions Management EPS Guidance
1
Investment Thesis
2
Company Overview
3
Auto Industry Overview
4
Catalysts
5
Valuation
6
Final Thoughts
7
Appendix
8. Dealership Overview
8
◆ Auto dealership industry undergoing
consolidation
◆ Online retailers put pressure on
margins and pricing power
◆ Increasing technology needs make
economies of scale more pronounced
◆ Consolidation likely to continue,
driving returns lower
1
Investment Thesis
2
Company Overview
3
Auto Industry Overview
4
Catalysts
5
Valuation
6
Final Thoughts
7
Appendix
9. High Expectations
EV/EBITDA EV/EBIT EV/Sales P/E Forward P/E Price/Sales
LAD 11.62 13.26 0.54 12.21 9.47 0.25
ABG 9.43 10.48 0.47 10.48 8.87 0.22
AN 10.72 12.73 0.50 11.91 9.49 0.21
GPI 10.66 12.47 0.38 8.55 7.55 0.12
PAG 13.77 15.91 0.45 10.29 8.74 0.18
SAH 11.10 15.77 0.34 10.20 8.34 0.08
High 13.77 15.91 0.50 11.91 9.49 0.22
Mean 11.13 13.47 0.43 10.29 8.60 0.16
Median 10.72 12.73 0.45 10.29 8.74 0.18
Low 9.43 10.48 0.34 8.55 7.55 0.08
LAD Rank 2 3 1 1 2 1
Source: Bloomberg
Based on T12M excluding Forward P/E
9
Ticker Company Analyst Rating
LAD Lithia Motors, Inc. 4.60
PAG Penske Automotive Group, Inc. 4.40
ABG Asbury Automotive Group, Inc. 3.36
AN AutoNation Inc. 3.25
GPI Group 1 Automotive Inc. 3.00
SAH Sonic Automotive Inc. 3.00
Source: Bloomberg
Ratings Scale is 1 (Sell) to 5 (Buy)
1
Investment Thesis
2
Company Overview
3
Auto Industry Overview
4
Catalysts
5
Valuation
6
Final Thoughts
7
Appendix
10. Auto Industry Overview
◆ Auto sales slumped during the Great
Recession
◆ Manufacturers and dealerships were
rescued by Cash For Clunkers
◆ New Car Sales boomed from 2010 to
2015
◆ Delinquencies on Subprime Auto
Loans are nearing pre-financial-crisis
levels of 10%
10
Source: Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, St. Louis FRED
1
Investment Thesis
2
Company Overview
3
Auto Industry Overview
4
Catalysts
5
Valuation
6
Final Thoughts
7
Appendix
11. Auto Credit
Repossession in California
“The number of cars we’ve towed in the
past couple of months has increased
significantly.”
-Gary Rayburn, Cal-Coast Recovery
11
Lending Environment
Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence
◆ S&P Global raises forecasted losses
for ABSs primarily in Western U.S.
◆ Average credit score for prime and
subprime rising
◆ Auto Finance companies de-risking
1
Investment Thesis
2
Company Overview
3
Auto Industry Overview
4
Catalysts
5
Valuation
6
Final Thoughts
7
Appendix
12. Inventory and Retail Sales
◆ Manufacturer inventories fell to 6 year
lows due to decreases in production
◆ Retail sales are stable
◆ Divergence suggests manufacturers
aware of impending supply glut
◆ Increases in vehicle leasing have led to
large used vehicle inventories
◆ Used car prices are falling due to an
inventory surplus
12
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
All data seasonally-adjusted, Retail Sales shown at annualized rate
1
Investment Thesis
2
Company Overview
3
Auto Industry Overview
4
Catalysts
5
Valuation
6
Final Thoughts
7
Appendix
13. Trade Cycle Extension
◆ Steadily rising used car prices from
2011-2016 shortened trade cycles,
which increased new car sales velocity
◆ As used car prices fall, trade cycles
lengthen
◆ Borrowers on longer loan terms
(typically poor credit) feel greater
impact from falling vehicle prices
13
Source: Blinders Off LLC
1
Investment Thesis
2
Company Overview
3
Auto Industry Overview
4
Catalysts
5
Valuation
6
Final Thoughts
7
Appendix
14. Race to the Bottom
14
Used Vehicle
Values Drop
Trade Cycles
Lengthen
Sales Velocity
Slows
Day Supply
Grows
Incentives
Rise
Production
Slows
1
Investment Thesis
2
Company Overview
3
Auto Industry Overview
4
Catalysts
5
Valuation
6
Final Thoughts
7
Appendix
“Used vehicle prices are the driver of
new car sales. When consumers reach
positive equity on their auto loan, they
trade-in for the new model.”
-Daniel Ruiz, Auto Analyst & Consultant
15. SWOT Analysis
Strengths
◆ “Recession-resistant” segments over
50% of Gross Profit
◆ Top 2 brands (Honda, Toyota) hold
value over time well
◆ Small luxury market presence
Weaknesses
◆ Highest days supply of inventory of
peer set
◆ Consumer reliance on financing
◆ Revenues highly concentrated in
several high-tax states
Opportunities
◆ Organic growth via Parts and Service
segment
◆ High liquidity and low leverage driving
more dealership acquisitions
Threats
◆ Rising rates and unfavorable tax
changes lock out potential buyers
◆ Vehicle prices fall, extending trade
cycles and reducing sales volume
◆ Tighter auto lending standards
151
Investment Thesis
2
Company Overview
3
Auto Industry Overview
4
Catalysts
5
Valuation
6
Final Thoughts
7
Appendix
16. Vehicle Sales Projections
◆ A regression on vehicle sales was fit
using a vehicle price index,
manufacturer production,
manufacturer sales, and manufacturer
inventories.
◆ Model predicted over 70% of the
variation in vehicle sales over the
validation data set.
◆ Projecting New Vehicle Sales for 2018
of 15.8M (SAAR) vs. consensus of
16.8M (SAAR)
◆ 6% below consensus, 10% decline Y/Y
◆ 2018 Q1 New Vehicle Sales beat
expectations at 17.48M (SAAR)
◆ Most growth came from lower-tier,
easily-financed brands such as GM
and Fiat Chrysler
◆ Manufacturer and dealer incentives
remained high
◆ We believe this is a short-term rally in
the late-stages of the auto cycle
◆ Confirms forecast for lower vehicle
sales for 2018 and 2019
161
Investment Thesis
2
Company Overview
3
Auto Industry Overview
4
Catalysts
5
Valuation
6
Final Thoughts
7
Appendix
17. Impact to Lithia’s Divisions
New Vehicle Sales
◆ Longer trade cycles cause decline in
new vehicle sales
◆ Lack of financing options push
consumers towards lower trim
packages
17
Used Vehicle Sales
◆ Drop in used vehicle prices decreases
total revenue
◆ Liquidating used vehicle at wholesale
auction decrease overall gross margin
Parts & Service (P&S)
◆ Price-conscious consumers drive
margins lower
◆ Decrease in vehicle sales cause lower
service demand in the future
Financing & Insurance (F&I)
◆ Tighter lending standards lowers
financing revenue
◆ Consumers who are tight on cash will
purchase less warranty and insurance
features
1
Investment Thesis
2
Company Overview
3
Auto Industry Overview
4
Catalysts
5
Valuation
6
Final Thoughts
7
Appendix
20. FinalThoughts
◆ Lithia Motors, Inc. looks like a value play at current prices. It is our opinion that
the stock is a value trap.
◆ We believe headwinds from the new vehicle market will be stronger than
expected. No mention of trade cycles or subprime delinquencies has been
discussed on Lithia’s earnings calls.
◆ An earnings miss in Q2, downward revised guidance, and analyst downgrades
gives the stock more room to fall in coming months.
◆ We recommend Lithia Motors, Inc. (LAD) as a SHORT with a 12 month price target
of $63, representing a 38% decline from its current price of $100.98
201
Investment Thesis
2
Company Overview
3
Auto Industry Overview
4
Catalysts
5
Valuation
6
Final Thoughts
7
Appendix