"In the world of market research there are few parties who come in for more scrutiny than the political pollsters. With so much emotion riding on a clear outcome it is understandable that people pay attention. A large portion of market research essentially revolves around making a prediction and this is no more apparent than in political research. Given that prediction science plays such a huge part in the world of market research, it is unsurprising that as a research upon research department we have added our name to the list of those who have researched and written papers on the topic of how to make good predictions. Ultimately it has been this question which has led us to the more specific question of how to predict an election." - Alexander Wheatley

1. HEAD OR HEART
The conflicts of political polling
alex wheatley

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• Day before vote
• 450 Nat Rep
• Undecided asked lean
POLLING THE UK’S E.U. REFERENDUM
48% 52%
1 Remain Leave *the result was 48% remain 52% leave
WE CALLED IT!

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THIS WAS JUST LUCK
interview 96% of voters and still
call Remain victory
One sample:
82%
18%
82% Remain Leave

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AS LONG AS IT’S
REPRESENTIVE
Don’t know the causes we need to represent!
NAT REP NAT REP

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“I’m voting remain”

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NOT A SIMPLE QUESTION
IT’S SENSITIVE1
…so context has an impact
IT’S A SELF OBSERVATION2
…so it needs breaking down
IT’S A BEHAVIOUR PREDICTION3
…we’re not good at those

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FAILED PREDICTION
272 F.T. 58% OF POLLS GOT IT WRONG

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NEED SOME EXPERT PREDICTORS
“Best way to measure
predictive abilities is to
longitudinally measure
accurate predictions”

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SOME EXPERT PREDICTORS
GOT IT RIGHT!
37%
63%
0.37 Remain Leave

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MORE WORK NEEDED
Emotions
bias
prediction
2015 Conservative
victory makes sample
self selecting

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NOT A SIMPLE SOLUTION
• 2 years of experimentation
• More than 10 studies
Out of the box solution?
No experts needed

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ASKED TO “PREDICT WHO WILL WIN?”
GOT IT WRONG!
61%
39%
0.61 Remain Leave

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INFORMED PREDICTION

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ONLY A SLIGHT CHANGE
61% 58%
76%
Initial Prediction After Information After Information of Confident &
Correct
*percentage predicting Remain victory

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ONLY A SLIGHT CHANGE
MORE WRONG IF THINK THEY ARE CORRECT
61% 58%
76%
Initial Prediction After Information After Information of Confident &
Correct
*percentage predicting Remain victory

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ONLY A SLIGHT CHANGE
MORE WRONG IF THINK THEY ARE CORRECT
61% 58%
76%
Initial Prediction After Information After Information of Confident &
Correct
*percentage predicting Remain victory
RED FLAG FOR CONFIRMATION BIAS

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STRUGGLE WITH HEAD SO WHAT ABOUT HEART?
I.A.T. showed clear lead for Cameron across positive attributes
WORKED IN 2015

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TESTING BREXIT
Thumbs up/down
I.A.T. of images
52% 48%
Undecided Voters
DIDN’T WORK THIS TIME
*percentage thumbs up of undecided voters

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NOT A CLEAR READ
40%
Undecided Voters
*percentage thumbs up of undecided voters
NEGATIVE
REACTION
A clearer picture?

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POLLS BALANCED & NO SINGLE MEASURE TIPS SCALE

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ADD IT ALL UP
• Emotions

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ADD IT ALL UP
• Emotions
• Prediction

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ADD IT ALL UP
• Emotions
• Prediction
• Biases

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NO LONGER A COIN TOSS!
The next test…