References
Weisstein, Eric W. "Poisson Distribution." MathWorld–A Wolfram Web Resource.
https://mathworld.wolfram.com/PoissonDistribution.html
Stat Trek. "Poisson Distribution: Definition & Examples."
https://stattrek.com/probability-distributions/poisson.aspx
Khan Academy. "Poisson Distribution."
https://www.khanacademy.org/math/statistics-probability/random-variables-stats-librarynderstanding the Poisson Distribution
The Poisson distribution is a discrete probability distribution that expresses the probability of a given number of events occurring in a fixed interval of time or space, provided these events occur with a known constant mean rate and independently of the time since the last event. It is named after the French mathematician Siméon Denis Poisson.
When to Use the Poisson Distribution
The Poisson distribution is used when:
Events are independent.
The average rate (events per time or space unit) is constant.
Two events cannot occur at exactly the same instant.
The probability of more than one event happening in an infinitesimally small time interval is negligible.
Examples include:
The number of emails received in an hour.
The number of accidents at an intersection per month.
The number of decay events per second from a radioactive source.
The Formula
The Poisson probability mass function is:
𝑃
(
𝑋
=
𝑘
)
=
𝜆
𝑘
𝑒
−
𝜆
𝑘
!
P(X=k)=
k!
λ
k
e
−λ
Where:
𝑃
(
𝑋
=
𝑘
)
P(X=k) is the probability of k events in a fixed interval.
𝜆
λ (lambda) is the average number of events per interval.
𝑒
e is Euler’s number (approximately 2.71828).
𝑘
k is the number of events (k = 0, 1, 2, ...).
𝑘
!
k! is the factorial of
𝑘
k.
Mean and Variance
One interesting property of the Poisson distribution is that its mean and variance are both equal to λ. This is useful for identifying if a data set may follow a Poisson distribution.
Graphical Representation
The shape of a Poisson distribution depends on the value of λ:
If λ is small (e.g., 1 or 2), the distribution is skewed to the right.
As λ increases, the distribution becomes more symmetric and approaches a normal distribution.
Real-World Applications
The Poisson distribution has many practical uses in fields such as:
Operations research: modeling customer arrivals at a service point.
Biology: modeling mutation counts in genes.
Telecommunications: modeling packet arrivals in a network.
Insurance: modeling claim frequencies.
Limitations
While the Poisson distribution is powerful, it has limitations. It assumes events occur independently and at a constant rate, which may not always be true in real-world situations. Overdispersion (variance > mean) may indicate that a Negative Binomial Distribution is a better fit.