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KARNATAKA 2026
A USD 500 BILLION DOLLAR GDP VISION
TV Mohandas Pai | Nisha Holla
3one4 Capital
COVID-19 Impact
- Economic fallout has been swift, global and simultaneous
- IMF estimates $82Tn global economy will shrink by 3-5%
- India might decline up to 5% from 2019-20 GDP
- Overall government revenues may decrease by 30%
- Taxpaying ability for FY’21 will be low
- Fiscal deficit for GoI may rise from 3.5% to 6%, for states
from 3% to 5%
- FY’21 can be considered a break year to observe, plan and
get funding ready to accelerate FY’22 onwards
- Infrastructure spending will be the most significant driver
for economic growth and large-scale employment
© TV Mohandas Pai | © Nisha Holla 2
Bold Vision for Growth – Pre-COVID
- PM Modi for India – USD 5 Tn by 2025, now 2026
- USD 2.93 Tn* in FY’20
- Needs to grow at ~11%(N) CAGR over 5 years
- Can Karnataka grow to USD 500 Bn in 2026?
- USD 243 Bn* in FY’20
- 8% of India’s GDP
- Needs to grow at 15.6% CAGR over 5 years
- Karnataka needs to grow faster than India over 5 years
to contribute 10% [USD 500 Bn of USD 5 Tn] in 2026
$0.24T
$0.5T
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2020 2025
USD
Trillion
India Karnataka
Source: CSO, ESK
* At constant conversion of 70
© TV Mohandas Pai | © Nisha Holla 3
Outline
Survey of Karnataka’s economy
Study of best-in-class models
Next steps for accelerated growth
© TV Mohandas Pai | © Nisha Holla 4
Survey of Karnataka’s Economy
- In Business-As-Usual scenario, Karnataka economy can grow
to INR 32 lakh crores or USD 432 Bn by 20261
- * Projected on a 5-year growth rate basis with FY’21 as a
break year of near-zero growth
Source: ESK
1At INR 74 = 1 USD
© TV Mohandas Pai | © Nisha Holla 5
Karnataka – GSDP Composition (INR lakh crore)
Sector 2014-15 2019-20
YoY Growth
Rate
2025-26*
Services 5.2 10.1 14.2% 19.5
Industry 2.0 3.5 11.2% 5.9
Agriculture 1.1 1.7 8.9% 2.6
GSVA 8.3 15.2 12.8% 28.0
Taxes and other 0.8 1.8 16.9% 3.9
GSDP 9.1 17.0 13.2% 31.9
- KA economy is healthy but largely dependent on services sector
- Services contribution to GVA is 66%, growing at 14% YoY on a
nominal basis
- Industry currently contributes 23%, growing at 11% YoY
- Agriculture contributes 11%, growing at 9% YoY
- Need a more balanced growth and budget allocation strategy to
ensure all three sectors accelerate
Source: RBI, ESK
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
2020 Projected 2025
INR
lakh
crore
Contribution to Nominal GSVA (INR)
Services Industry Agriculture
© TV Mohandas Pai | © Nisha Holla 6
Composition of Karnataka’s Economy
Top 5 State Economies
7
© TV Mohandas Pai | © Nisha Holla
State
GSDP GSVA Composition
INR lakh crore Per-capita (INR)* Services Industry Agri
Uttar Pradesh 16.9 69,425 52.0% 29.3% 18.7%
Gujarat 16.9 2,50,887 36.6% 53.0% 10.4%
Karnataka 17.0 2,53,321 66.3% 22.8% 10.9%
Tamil Nadu 18.5 2,38,956 56.5% 37.5% 6.0%
Maharashtra 28.8 2,43,786 63.2% 30.6% 6.2%
India 204.5 1,49,096 55.0% 27.4% 17.6%
- Top 5 states together account for 48% of national GDP
- Karnataka has highest per-capita GDP, and highest services
contribution to GVA
Source: RBI, ESK, Census, CRS
* Denotes author computations
Asymmetric Workforce-Sectoral Dependence (FY’20)
Source: RBI, ESK, World Bank,
MOSPI
* Denotes author computations
© TV Mohandas Pai | © Nisha Holla 8
Sector % GVA GVA (cr)
Workforce
distribution
Dependent
population (cr)*
Per-capita
GVA (INR)*
Agriculture 17.6% 32,54,345 42.7% 58.54 55,594
Industry 27.4% 50,71,934 23.8% 32.63 1,55,450
Services 55.0% 1,01,67,407 33.5% 45.93 2,21,391
Total 100.0% 1,84,93,686 100.0% 137.09 1,34,902
Sector % GSVA GSVA (cr)
Workforce
distribution*
Dependent
population (cr)*
Per-capita
GSVA (INR)*
Agriculture 10.9% 1,66,573 35.1% 2.36 70,515
Industry 22.8% 3,46,790 23.8% 1.60 2,16,508
Services 66.3% 10,05,191 41.5% 2.79 3,59,903
Total 100.0% 15,18,554 100% 6.73 2,25,640
INDIA
KARNATAKA
Income inequity
1:3:4
1:3:5
Karnataka’s
Challenges
- Large disparity between North and South Karnataka; 10 Poorest
Districts all in N KA
- Low income for agriculture, need to shift workforce
- Asymmetric spending on Agri-sector which has low growth and
returns
- INR 56,000 crores allocated to Agri and rural development in
FY’21
- Includes INR 13,000 power + cross-subsidy, BESCOM is
inefficient and an estimated half of this subsidy is stolen
- Large Agri-budget at cost of under-investment in state’s
growth drivers à services sectors, urban development,
Bengaluru
- Human resource development is lagging, lowest GER in the south
- Ageing state with declining fertility, need to focus on building
high-productivity workforce
© TV Mohandas Pai | © Nisha Holla 9
Source: ESK, KA Budget, B-PAC,
AISHE
- With current CAGR of 13%, Karnataka can grow to
USD 432 Bn by 2026*
- Growth must accelerate at 17% to USD 500 Bn*
- We surveyed other economies to identify where KA
could grow faster
- What policies can be implemented from other
economies?
- Studied best-in-class for each sector and sub-sector
to identify growth drivers
© TV Mohandas Pai | © Nisha Holla 10
* 5-year CAGR, at a conversion of INR 74 = 1 USD
Need to Accelerate Growth
Best in Class
Survey of other state economies to
identify best-in-class growth rates to
implement in Karnataka
11
© TV Mohandas Pai | © Nisha Holla
Services
Sectoral Gross State Domestic Product - Services
(INR lakh)
YoY Growth
States 2014-15 2017-18 3-year CAGR
Tamil Nadu 5,32,71,532 6,90,57,495 9.0%
Uttar Pradesh 4,56,14,833 6,05,68,568 9.9%
Madhya Pradesh 1,76,52,926 2,39,41,816 10.7%
Gujarat 2,99,13,701 4,06,23,226 10.7%
West Bengal 3,65,57,933 5,17,85,865 12.3%
Odisha 1,21,34,685 1,72,85,358 12.5%
Maharashtra 8,75,29,187 12,59,81,189 12.9%
Rajasthan 2,49,75,781 3,71,12,111 14.1%
Andhra Pradesh 2,15,23,018 3,20,37,984 14.2%
Karnataka 5,17,91,812 7,73,44,374 14.3%
Telangana 2,86,01,072 4,34,66,868 14.9%
Karnataka: 14.3%
Best in class:
- Top 3-state average: 14.5%
- KA already best in class, can set
terms for accelerated growth
Drivers:
- IT services
- Financial services (B&I)
- Tourism
Source: RBI © TV Mohandas Pai | © Nisha Holla 12
IT Services
- Value-add for sub-sector ‘professional services’ is
70.6
- IT services under professional services
- IT services has the advantage of mass employment
of specialized workers with high pay
- In 2019-20, total IT services exports for India was
USD 150 Bn [INR 11 lakh crore]
- Karnataka’s contribution is 38% [INR 4.2 lakh cr.]
Source: CSO © TV Mohandas Pai | © Nisha Holla 13
Banking and Insurance
Sectoral Gross State Domestic Product - Banking &
Insurance (INR lakh)
YoY Growth
States 2014-15 2017-18 3-year CAGR
Madhya Pradesh 19,97,284 22,14,316 3.5%
West Bengal 37,14,599 42,80,746 4.5%
Tamil Nadu 57,19,637 65,95,963 4.9%
Bihar 12,18,791 14,53,165 6.0%
Maharashtra 1,64,07,915 2,03,60,695 7.5%
Uttar Pradesh 35,20,922 43,79,203 7.5%
Andhra Pradesh 19,04,659 24,14,956 8.2%
Telangana 30,26,141 40,15,541 9.9%
Gujarat 44,81,687 60,38,097 10.5%
Karnataka 41,93,233 58,10,671 11.5%
Rajasthan 19,07,759 26,68,125 11.8%
MOSPI CSO: Value-add is 72.0
Karnataka CAGR: 11.5%
Best in class:
- Top 3-state average: 11.25%
- KA’s CAGR already best-in-class,
need to grow base with a
concerted financial services
strategy
Source: RBI, CSO © TV Mohandas Pai | © Nisha Holla 14
Industry
Sectoral Gross State Domestic Product -
Industry (INR lakh)
YoY Growth
States 2014-15 2017-18 3-year CAGR
Rajasthan 1,80,78,103 2,18,05,109 6.5%
Odisha 1,08,30,232 1,32,82,081 7.0%
Maharashtra 5,35,95,321 6,70,10,984 7.7%
Andhra Pradesh 1,24,28,205 1,62,48,235 9.4%
Karnataka 2,04,43,889 2,67,34,007 9.4%
Uttar Pradesh 2,47,61,480 3,36,42,960 10.8%
Tamil Nadu 3,20,88,758 4,40,67,566 11.2%
Madhya Pradesh 1,14,60,301 1,63,17,844 12.5%
Telangana 1,04,36,581 1,49,37,116 12.7%
Gujarat 3,87,49,839 5,63,27,116 13.3%
West Bengal 1,47,76,587 2,16,53,765 13.6%
Karnataka: 9.4%
- Low compared to the potential for
one of India’s ‘Most Industrialized
States’
Best in class:
- Top 3-state average: 13.2%
- Mid-point from KA: 11.3%
Drivers:
- Manufacturing
- Construction
Source: RBI © TV Mohandas Pai | © Nisha Holla 15
Manufacturing
Sectoral Gross State Domestic Product -
Manufacturing (INR lakh)
YoY Growth
States 2014-15 2017-18 3-year CAGR
Maharashtra 3,41,97,980 4,27,77,749 7.8%
Rajasthan 61,78,417 79,49,899 8.8%
Andhra Pradesh 54,53,191 71,02,125 9.2%
Karnataka 1,20,08,490 1,76,14,475 13.6%
Tamil Nadu 1,82,18,939 2,71,44,970 14.2%
Gujarat 2,78,75,630 4,18,96,000 14.5%
Madhya Pradesh 42,33,489 65,81,278 15.8%
West Bengal 71,62,103 1,13,17,504 16.5%
Uttar Pradesh 1,05,12,538 1,67,02,625 16.7%
Telangana 54,53,348 89,48,830 17.9%
Karnataka : 13.6%
Best in class:
- Top 3-state average: 17%
- Mid-point from KA: 15.3%
Source: RBI © TV Mohandas Pai | © Nisha Holla 16
Construction
Sectoral Gross State Domestic Product -
Construction (INR lakh)
YoY Growth
States 2014-15 2017-18 3-year CAGR
Gujarat 55,77,264 57,97,548 1.3%
Karnataka 61,37,487 64,52,670 1.7%
Bihar 32,67,784 35,44,770 2.8%
Telangana 27,78,617 30,28,793 2.9%
Rajasthan 56,34,918 63,16,679 3.9%
Uttar Pradesh 1,12,85,665 1,27,48,395 4.2%
Tamil Nadu 1,19,14,451 1,35,69,487 4.4%
Madhya Pradesh 42,17,923 48,04,395 4.4%
Maharashtra 1,01,15,122 1,18,31,838 5.4%
Andhra Pradesh 45,32,380 56,07,400 7.4%
West Bengal 53,68,490 74,40,023 11.5%
Value add of Construction in India is
only 37.5
- Indicating it is a highly underutilized
growth driver
Karnataka : 1.7%
Best in class:
- Top 3-state average: 8%
- Mid-point from KA: 4.9%
Source: RBI, CSO © TV Mohandas Pai | © Nisha Holla 17
Agriculture
Sectoral Gross State Domestic Product -
Agriculture (INR lakh)
YoY Growth
States 2014-15 2017-18 3-year CAGR
Tamil Nadu 71,80,913 80,88,905 4.0%
Rajasthan 77,60,668 88,46,668 4.5%
Maharashtra 1,15,14,126 1,39,59,813 6.6%
Punjab 57,15,593 71,41,673 7.7%
Gujarat 96,64,066 1,21,58,725 8.0%
Bihar 46,22,152 59,43,229 8.7%
Uttar Pradesh 1,56,33,361 2,13,60,807 11.0%
Karnataka 1,08,95,900 1,49,19,900 11.0%
West Bengal 1,01,71,379 1,45,20,957 12.6%
Andhra Pradesh 78,89,822 1,15,11,734 13.4%
Madhya Pradesh 1,30,94,566 2,29,68,000 20.6%
Karnataka : 11% [highly variant from year-
to-year, unlike states like MP, UP]
Best in class:
- Top 3-state average: 15.5%
- Mid-point from KA: 13.3%
Madhya Pradesh provides a good model
with CAGR of 20.6%
Source: RBI, ESK © TV Mohandas Pai | © Nisha Holla 18
- With current CAGRs, Karnataka may only grow to
USD 432 Bn by 2025-26; need to accelerate
- Using best-in-class survey, two accelerated
models:
1. With mid-point CAGRs between best-in-class in
India and MH
2. With higher growth rates by accounting for
boosts in specific sub-sectors like
manufacturing, construction, financial services
and IT services
Accelerated Growth Drivers
© TV Mohandas Pai | © Nisha Holla 19
Accelerated Projections to reach USD 500 Bn
Model 1: Not sufficient -> USD 450 billion (using mid-point growth rates studied above)
Model 2: KA economy can indeed grow to USD 500 Bn (with accelerated rates)
Source: RBI
*At INR 74 = 1 USD
© TV Mohandas Pai | © Nisha Holla 20
Sector
GSDP Current Trendline
Accelerated Model 1 Accelerated Model 2
2019-20 CAGR Projected 2025-26 CAGR
Projected
2025-26
CAGR1 Projected
2025-26
Services 10.1 14.3% 19.5 15.0% 20.2 17.5% 22.5
Industry 3.5 9.4% 5.9 11.3% 5.9 17.0% 7.6
Agriculture 1.7 3.8% 2.6 13.3% 3.1 13.3% 3.1
GVA (in lakh crore
INR) 15.2
- 28.0 - 29.3 - 33.2
Taxes and other 1.8 17.0% 3.9 17.0% 3.9 17.0% 3.9
GSDP (in lakh crore) 17.0 13.2% 31.9 14.3% 33.2 17.0% 37.2
GSDP (in billion USD)* 230 - 432 - 449 - 503
21
© TV Mohandas Pai | © Nisha Holla
Next Steps
Application of accelerated growth drivers to
grow economy to USD 500 Billion by 2026
Policies and investment areas
1. Boost Agri Sector
Via Tech, Branding and Marketing
• Farmers only accrue 30-35% value-add for non-cereal segments
• Cereals have MSP so 80-90% accrual
• For non-cereals, if farmers realization increases by 20%, then
INR 19,000 crores gross can go directly to farmer
• Strategies to increase farmer realization:
• Invest in Agri-tech to connect farmers directly to markets
• Use of technology platforms to deploy strategies at scale
• Create an INR 1,000 crore Fund for Agri-tech
• Specific export strategies like Flower Market in Bangalore
• Create a global brand for KA Agri to improve realization
• Food processing for higher value add
• By 2026, reduce workforce-dependence from 35% to 15% by
investing in development of industry and services
© TV Mohandas Pai | © Nisha Holla 22
- Largely in North KA to provide high-growth mass employment
- KA first state to have a LII policy, needs implementation with targeted
objectives
- 70,000 MSMEs registered with a 17,000-factory and heavy engineering
base
- COVID-19 fallout: Many countries looking to diversify from China
- Needs to activate Invest Karnataka and deploy like EDB of Singapore
- Karnataka must take advantage
- Build excess capacity to capture markets
- Geographical trade advantage – proximity to Suez Canal and access to Europe
and East Coast of USA
- Incentives for private capital to set up LIIs
- Develop Mangalore and Karwar ports for exports
- High-speed connectivity to ports, freight corridor
2. Labour-Intensive Industries (LIIs 1/2)
To boost manufacturing and exports
© TV Mohandas Pai | © Nisha Holla 23
2. Labour-Intensive Industries (2/2)
To boost manufacturing and exports
China’s 2018 exports valued USD 2.5 trillion (INR 177 lakh crores)
Top 10 are (% of total exports)
Electrical machinery & equipment: INR 47 lakh crores (26.6%)
Machinery including computers: INR 30.5 lakh crores (17.2%)
Furniture, bedding, lighting, signs, prefab buildings: INR 6.8 lakh crores (3.9%)
Plastics, plastic articles: INR 5.7 lakh crores (3.2%)
Vehicles: INR 5.3 lakh crores (3%)
Knit or crochet clothing, accessories: INR 5.2 lakh crores (2.9%)
Clothing, accessories (not knit or crochet): INR 5 lakh crores (2.9%)
Optical, technical, medical apparatus: INR 5 lakh crores (2.9%)
Articles of iron or steel: INR 4.65 lakh crores (2.6%)
Organic chemicals: INR 4.2 lakh crores (2.4%)
© TV Mohandas Pai | © Nisha Holla 24
3. Increase Infrastructure Spending
Boost construction
- Follow China model to develop economy via construction and infrastructure
- Large growth driver to revive economy post-COVID with highest backward linkages
- Metal consumption, employment, taxes
- Avail long term 20-30-year loans for funding
- Items:
Ports Rural road connectivity Railways Tourism infrastructure
Airports Low cost housing Metro Seaside living spaces (like Shanghai)
Suvarna Karnataka 8-Lane Expressway from Bidar to Bengaluru with access to MLR and KAR ports
Source: ESM © TV Mohandas Pai | © Nisha Holla 25
China Model for
Construction
• Rapidly urbanized from 26% in 1990 to 59% today
• Avg. annual growth rate of 16.6% in construction
• Value-added output of the industry reached 5.57 trillion yuan in 2017
• 13.9 billion yuan in 1978
• Value-added output of the industry rose to 6.7 percent of GDP in 2017
• 3.8 percent in 1978
• Railways: 52,000 km in 1978 to 127,000 km in 2017
• Including 25,000 km of high-speed railways.
• Highways: 130,000km; addition of 10,000km every year since 2011
© TV Mohandas Pai | © Nisha Holla 26
4. Systematic Urbanization (1/2)
Karnataka 2011 census:
- 31% urban, maybe 43-45% today
- Most urbanized state is TN at 49% in 2011
- 29,390 villages – 2,362 abandoned
- 281 towns housing 38% of population
- 22 towns of 1,00,000+ pop
- 1 city of 10,00,000+ pop
- Remaining 258 towns have low population
- Pick 200 to develop into urban engines of growth
Source: Census 2011 © TV Mohandas Pai | © Nisha Holla 27
Labour-
intensive
industries
Infrastructure,
and amenities
Planning for
capacity
New
sustainable
technologies
to offset
urban spread
4. Systematic
Urbanization
200 Towns (2/2)
© TV Mohandas Pai | © Nisha Holla
Develop and connect 200 towns with
best-in-class infrastructure, connectivity
and amenities
Renewables, water and sewage
treatment facilities, public transportation,
EV infrastructure, planned tree cover,
and more
Plan for the future, not the present
20-50-year forecast models
Mass employment opportunities
With training and skilling facilities
High-growth industries
Export markets
28
- NITI-Aayog’s Aspirational district program has
launched a direct assault on poverty, and is
already yielding good results
- 115 poor districts all over the country have
been chosen to dramatically improve
development
- Since Karnataka is one of India’s forward
states, we have only 2 districts in the program
- Need CM Aspirational District Program for
bottom 20 districts
5. Aspirational District Program (1/2)
Source: NITI Aayog © TV Mohandas Pai | © Nisha Holla 29
5. CM Aspirational District Program (2/2)
- Pop-weighted avg. of 10 Richest
districts is 2x of Middle Districts
and 3x of Poorest Districts
- Need to reduce drag on economy
and develop bottom 20
- With CM Aspirational District
Program, bottom 20 districts can
grow faster than the state
Source: ESM © TV Mohandas Pai | © Nisha Holla 30
6. Higher Education (1/2)
- Essential to human capital development
- GER currently 28.8 (2019)
- Lags behind other southern states, all above 32
Source: CSO © TV Mohandas Pai | © Nisha Holla 31
State GER State GER
West Bengal 19.3 Karnataka 28.8
Gujarat 20.4 Andhra Pradesh 32.4
Madhya Pradesh 21.5 Maharashtra 32.0
Rajasthan 23.0 Telangana 36.2
Uttar Pradesh 25.8 Kerala 37.0
All India 26.3 Tamil Nadu 49.0
6. Higher Education (2/2)
- GER currently 28.8 (2019)
- Projected to grow to 33.8 in 2025
- We must aim for 40 by 2025 and 50 by 2030
- Invest in more colleges and universities,
and staff training, especially in N KA
- Fund R&D in universities through FoFs
- Build industry focus – IT, space,
biotechnology, etc have been
phenomenal successes in the state
Source: CSO © TV Mohandas Pai | © Nisha Holla 32
2011-12 2018-19 CAGR
Projected
2024-25
Enrolment 17,60,964 19,88,494 1.75% 22,06,780
18-23 population 74,01,674 69,12,759 -0.97% 65,19,476
GER 23.8 28.8 - 33.8
Pass-out 5,78,650 5,29,026 -1.27% -
7. Specialized Industries
To boost manufacturing and exports
- US and China both have significant innovation spending budgets
- Source of socio-economic and political strength
- Karnataka already leads India in specialized and future technologies
- Create INR 10,000 cr. Fund-of-funds over 5 years
- For deep research, intellectual property generation, and specialized workforces
- Centres of Excellence, grants, R&D laboratories, manufacturing facilities
- This investment will yield massive output and growth over next decade
- Areas
Electronics component design 3D printing
Hardware design and manufacturing Robotics
Defence parts manufacturing Medical devices
Renewable energy innovation New materials
Advanced Pharmaceuticals Space applications
© TV Mohandas Pai | © Nisha Holla
8. Bengaluru:
Global Hi-Tech City
- Bengaluru consists of an estimated 60% of the state
economy
- Third-highest tax revenues in India
- Inadequate investment in infrastructure, branding
and incentives for global presence like tax holidays
© TV Mohandas Pai | © Nisha Holla
34
Source: CSO
9. IT Services
- IT services value-add is 70.6
- Today KA contributes 38% to India’s IT exports. IT accounts for
25% of state economy. Can expand
- We have the infrastructure, corporate and startup base for this.
20 lakh are directly employed, out of which only 11 lakh are native
from the state
- Must build workforce pipeline – training, higher education, grants
- Centres of Excellence, R&D laboratories:
- AI/ML
- Cybersecurity
- Blockchain
- Internet-of-Things
- Enterprise automation
- Agri tech
© TV Mohandas Pai | © Nisha Holla 35
Source: CSO, ESK
10. Invest in Start-up Ecosystem
- India has the third largest start-up base
- 39,000+ startups
- USD 160 Bn value created
- 250+ incubators/accelerators
- 500+ institutional investors
- 33 unicorns
- Bengaluru is Top start-up destination
- 40% of companies founded since 2016
- USD 31 Bn raised since 2010
- 1 in every 4 startups are deep tech/FinTech/Health Tech
- 44% of unicorns with 57% of cumulative unicorn value
- 64/148 Indian Soonicorns
- 431 VC Funds, ~5,000 angel investors, 32 Corporate VC Funds
- Karnataka must create an INR 5,000 crore Fund-of-
Funds to invest in start-ups
- Information Tech
- Financial Tech
- Biotech and life sciences
- Other focus areas
Source: YourStory,
Inc42
© TV Mohandas Pai | © Nisha Holla 36
Indicators
Employment, education and GDP
- Karnataka created:
- 10% of total EPFO jobs in India in FY’19
- 11.5% of jobs in the 18-28 age bracket
- Only 5.7% of India’s graduates in FY’17 were
from KA
- KA’s coverage ratio is 106% - the state is
creating more formal jobs than graduates
indicating mass migration towards the state
as an engine of growth
Source: EPFO, AISHE,
CSO, ESM
© TV Mohandas Pai | © Nisha Holla 37
Parameter Karnataka All-India % KA to India
EPFO Total Jobs (FY'19) 6,18,080 61,12,223 10.1%
EPFO Ages 18-28 (FY'19) 5,38,830 46,93,462 11.5%
Pass-outs (FY'18) 5,06,839 89,68,546 5.7%
Coverage ratio 106.31% 52.33% -
GER 27.8 25.8 -
GDP (INR lakh crore
FY'20)
17.0 205.0 8.3%
11. Fertility and Population
- KA’s fertility rates and population growth
rates in fast decline
- TFR could have declined to 1.7 in 2020
- Much lower than India-average of 2.0 in 2020
- Soon we will have a large ageing
population with shrinking workforce
- Human capital development to improve
quality and productivity of workforce is
critical
- Inclusion of all groups and regions in
high-growth imperative
TFR
State
NFHS - 4 NFHS - 3 NFHS - 2
2013-15 2003-05 1996-98
Tamil Nadu 1.70 1.80 2.19
Karnataka 1.80 2.07 2.13
Maharashtra 1.87 2.11 2.52
Gujarat 2.03 2.42 2.72
India 2.18 2.68 2.85
Madhya Pradesh 2.32 3.12 3.43
Rajasthan 2.40 3.21 3.78
Bihar 3.41 4.00 3.70
Source: NFHS-4, CRS
2017
© TV Mohandas Pai | © Nisha Holla 38
Conclusion
- Karnataka is one of the Top 3 states of India
- Has to grow faster than India over the next six years to reach USD 500 Billion
- Business-as-usual (BAU) will not get the state there
- Needs progressive policies to grow parts of economy with higher value-add that can grow faster, and
create more jobs
- Must lead in the innovation-driven knowledge economy of the future, especially start-ups
- Requires a special monitoring group to execute the USD 500 Bn vision
© TV Mohandas Pai | © Nisha Holla
39
Authors
40
© TV Mohandas Pai | © Nisha Holla
Nisha Holla
C-CAMP Technology Fellow
Co-founder, Biomoneta Research
Applied Materials, CA USA
Bloom Energy, CA USA
MS, Carnegie Mellon University
TV Mohandas Pai
Chairman, 3one4 Capital
Chairman, Aarin Capital
Chairman, Manipal Global Education
Founder-Trustee, Akshaya Patra Foundation
Chair of SEBI Committees
Board of Governors, National Investment and
Infrastructure Fund (NIIF)
Former CFO and Board Member, Infosys
Former President, AIMA
Padma Shri and Karnataka Rajyotsava awardee
The authors write regularly
about the Indian economy,
education, employment, and
technology.

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Karnataka 2026 - A USD 500 Billion Vision - 3one4 Capital

  • 1. KARNATAKA 2026 A USD 500 BILLION DOLLAR GDP VISION TV Mohandas Pai | Nisha Holla 3one4 Capital
  • 2. COVID-19 Impact - Economic fallout has been swift, global and simultaneous - IMF estimates $82Tn global economy will shrink by 3-5% - India might decline up to 5% from 2019-20 GDP - Overall government revenues may decrease by 30% - Taxpaying ability for FY’21 will be low - Fiscal deficit for GoI may rise from 3.5% to 6%, for states from 3% to 5% - FY’21 can be considered a break year to observe, plan and get funding ready to accelerate FY’22 onwards - Infrastructure spending will be the most significant driver for economic growth and large-scale employment © TV Mohandas Pai | © Nisha Holla 2
  • 3. Bold Vision for Growth – Pre-COVID - PM Modi for India – USD 5 Tn by 2025, now 2026 - USD 2.93 Tn* in FY’20 - Needs to grow at ~11%(N) CAGR over 5 years - Can Karnataka grow to USD 500 Bn in 2026? - USD 243 Bn* in FY’20 - 8% of India’s GDP - Needs to grow at 15.6% CAGR over 5 years - Karnataka needs to grow faster than India over 5 years to contribute 10% [USD 500 Bn of USD 5 Tn] in 2026 $0.24T $0.5T 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 2020 2025 USD Trillion India Karnataka Source: CSO, ESK * At constant conversion of 70 © TV Mohandas Pai | © Nisha Holla 3
  • 4. Outline Survey of Karnataka’s economy Study of best-in-class models Next steps for accelerated growth © TV Mohandas Pai | © Nisha Holla 4
  • 5. Survey of Karnataka’s Economy - In Business-As-Usual scenario, Karnataka economy can grow to INR 32 lakh crores or USD 432 Bn by 20261 - * Projected on a 5-year growth rate basis with FY’21 as a break year of near-zero growth Source: ESK 1At INR 74 = 1 USD © TV Mohandas Pai | © Nisha Holla 5 Karnataka – GSDP Composition (INR lakh crore) Sector 2014-15 2019-20 YoY Growth Rate 2025-26* Services 5.2 10.1 14.2% 19.5 Industry 2.0 3.5 11.2% 5.9 Agriculture 1.1 1.7 8.9% 2.6 GSVA 8.3 15.2 12.8% 28.0 Taxes and other 0.8 1.8 16.9% 3.9 GSDP 9.1 17.0 13.2% 31.9
  • 6. - KA economy is healthy but largely dependent on services sector - Services contribution to GVA is 66%, growing at 14% YoY on a nominal basis - Industry currently contributes 23%, growing at 11% YoY - Agriculture contributes 11%, growing at 9% YoY - Need a more balanced growth and budget allocation strategy to ensure all three sectors accelerate Source: RBI, ESK 0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 2020 Projected 2025 INR lakh crore Contribution to Nominal GSVA (INR) Services Industry Agriculture © TV Mohandas Pai | © Nisha Holla 6 Composition of Karnataka’s Economy
  • 7. Top 5 State Economies 7 © TV Mohandas Pai | © Nisha Holla State GSDP GSVA Composition INR lakh crore Per-capita (INR)* Services Industry Agri Uttar Pradesh 16.9 69,425 52.0% 29.3% 18.7% Gujarat 16.9 2,50,887 36.6% 53.0% 10.4% Karnataka 17.0 2,53,321 66.3% 22.8% 10.9% Tamil Nadu 18.5 2,38,956 56.5% 37.5% 6.0% Maharashtra 28.8 2,43,786 63.2% 30.6% 6.2% India 204.5 1,49,096 55.0% 27.4% 17.6% - Top 5 states together account for 48% of national GDP - Karnataka has highest per-capita GDP, and highest services contribution to GVA Source: RBI, ESK, Census, CRS * Denotes author computations
  • 8. Asymmetric Workforce-Sectoral Dependence (FY’20) Source: RBI, ESK, World Bank, MOSPI * Denotes author computations © TV Mohandas Pai | © Nisha Holla 8 Sector % GVA GVA (cr) Workforce distribution Dependent population (cr)* Per-capita GVA (INR)* Agriculture 17.6% 32,54,345 42.7% 58.54 55,594 Industry 27.4% 50,71,934 23.8% 32.63 1,55,450 Services 55.0% 1,01,67,407 33.5% 45.93 2,21,391 Total 100.0% 1,84,93,686 100.0% 137.09 1,34,902 Sector % GSVA GSVA (cr) Workforce distribution* Dependent population (cr)* Per-capita GSVA (INR)* Agriculture 10.9% 1,66,573 35.1% 2.36 70,515 Industry 22.8% 3,46,790 23.8% 1.60 2,16,508 Services 66.3% 10,05,191 41.5% 2.79 3,59,903 Total 100.0% 15,18,554 100% 6.73 2,25,640 INDIA KARNATAKA Income inequity 1:3:4 1:3:5
  • 9. Karnataka’s Challenges - Large disparity between North and South Karnataka; 10 Poorest Districts all in N KA - Low income for agriculture, need to shift workforce - Asymmetric spending on Agri-sector which has low growth and returns - INR 56,000 crores allocated to Agri and rural development in FY’21 - Includes INR 13,000 power + cross-subsidy, BESCOM is inefficient and an estimated half of this subsidy is stolen - Large Agri-budget at cost of under-investment in state’s growth drivers à services sectors, urban development, Bengaluru - Human resource development is lagging, lowest GER in the south - Ageing state with declining fertility, need to focus on building high-productivity workforce © TV Mohandas Pai | © Nisha Holla 9 Source: ESK, KA Budget, B-PAC, AISHE
  • 10. - With current CAGR of 13%, Karnataka can grow to USD 432 Bn by 2026* - Growth must accelerate at 17% to USD 500 Bn* - We surveyed other economies to identify where KA could grow faster - What policies can be implemented from other economies? - Studied best-in-class for each sector and sub-sector to identify growth drivers © TV Mohandas Pai | © Nisha Holla 10 * 5-year CAGR, at a conversion of INR 74 = 1 USD Need to Accelerate Growth
  • 11. Best in Class Survey of other state economies to identify best-in-class growth rates to implement in Karnataka 11 © TV Mohandas Pai | © Nisha Holla
  • 12. Services Sectoral Gross State Domestic Product - Services (INR lakh) YoY Growth States 2014-15 2017-18 3-year CAGR Tamil Nadu 5,32,71,532 6,90,57,495 9.0% Uttar Pradesh 4,56,14,833 6,05,68,568 9.9% Madhya Pradesh 1,76,52,926 2,39,41,816 10.7% Gujarat 2,99,13,701 4,06,23,226 10.7% West Bengal 3,65,57,933 5,17,85,865 12.3% Odisha 1,21,34,685 1,72,85,358 12.5% Maharashtra 8,75,29,187 12,59,81,189 12.9% Rajasthan 2,49,75,781 3,71,12,111 14.1% Andhra Pradesh 2,15,23,018 3,20,37,984 14.2% Karnataka 5,17,91,812 7,73,44,374 14.3% Telangana 2,86,01,072 4,34,66,868 14.9% Karnataka: 14.3% Best in class: - Top 3-state average: 14.5% - KA already best in class, can set terms for accelerated growth Drivers: - IT services - Financial services (B&I) - Tourism Source: RBI © TV Mohandas Pai | © Nisha Holla 12
  • 13. IT Services - Value-add for sub-sector ‘professional services’ is 70.6 - IT services under professional services - IT services has the advantage of mass employment of specialized workers with high pay - In 2019-20, total IT services exports for India was USD 150 Bn [INR 11 lakh crore] - Karnataka’s contribution is 38% [INR 4.2 lakh cr.] Source: CSO © TV Mohandas Pai | © Nisha Holla 13
  • 14. Banking and Insurance Sectoral Gross State Domestic Product - Banking & Insurance (INR lakh) YoY Growth States 2014-15 2017-18 3-year CAGR Madhya Pradesh 19,97,284 22,14,316 3.5% West Bengal 37,14,599 42,80,746 4.5% Tamil Nadu 57,19,637 65,95,963 4.9% Bihar 12,18,791 14,53,165 6.0% Maharashtra 1,64,07,915 2,03,60,695 7.5% Uttar Pradesh 35,20,922 43,79,203 7.5% Andhra Pradesh 19,04,659 24,14,956 8.2% Telangana 30,26,141 40,15,541 9.9% Gujarat 44,81,687 60,38,097 10.5% Karnataka 41,93,233 58,10,671 11.5% Rajasthan 19,07,759 26,68,125 11.8% MOSPI CSO: Value-add is 72.0 Karnataka CAGR: 11.5% Best in class: - Top 3-state average: 11.25% - KA’s CAGR already best-in-class, need to grow base with a concerted financial services strategy Source: RBI, CSO © TV Mohandas Pai | © Nisha Holla 14
  • 15. Industry Sectoral Gross State Domestic Product - Industry (INR lakh) YoY Growth States 2014-15 2017-18 3-year CAGR Rajasthan 1,80,78,103 2,18,05,109 6.5% Odisha 1,08,30,232 1,32,82,081 7.0% Maharashtra 5,35,95,321 6,70,10,984 7.7% Andhra Pradesh 1,24,28,205 1,62,48,235 9.4% Karnataka 2,04,43,889 2,67,34,007 9.4% Uttar Pradesh 2,47,61,480 3,36,42,960 10.8% Tamil Nadu 3,20,88,758 4,40,67,566 11.2% Madhya Pradesh 1,14,60,301 1,63,17,844 12.5% Telangana 1,04,36,581 1,49,37,116 12.7% Gujarat 3,87,49,839 5,63,27,116 13.3% West Bengal 1,47,76,587 2,16,53,765 13.6% Karnataka: 9.4% - Low compared to the potential for one of India’s ‘Most Industrialized States’ Best in class: - Top 3-state average: 13.2% - Mid-point from KA: 11.3% Drivers: - Manufacturing - Construction Source: RBI © TV Mohandas Pai | © Nisha Holla 15
  • 16. Manufacturing Sectoral Gross State Domestic Product - Manufacturing (INR lakh) YoY Growth States 2014-15 2017-18 3-year CAGR Maharashtra 3,41,97,980 4,27,77,749 7.8% Rajasthan 61,78,417 79,49,899 8.8% Andhra Pradesh 54,53,191 71,02,125 9.2% Karnataka 1,20,08,490 1,76,14,475 13.6% Tamil Nadu 1,82,18,939 2,71,44,970 14.2% Gujarat 2,78,75,630 4,18,96,000 14.5% Madhya Pradesh 42,33,489 65,81,278 15.8% West Bengal 71,62,103 1,13,17,504 16.5% Uttar Pradesh 1,05,12,538 1,67,02,625 16.7% Telangana 54,53,348 89,48,830 17.9% Karnataka : 13.6% Best in class: - Top 3-state average: 17% - Mid-point from KA: 15.3% Source: RBI © TV Mohandas Pai | © Nisha Holla 16
  • 17. Construction Sectoral Gross State Domestic Product - Construction (INR lakh) YoY Growth States 2014-15 2017-18 3-year CAGR Gujarat 55,77,264 57,97,548 1.3% Karnataka 61,37,487 64,52,670 1.7% Bihar 32,67,784 35,44,770 2.8% Telangana 27,78,617 30,28,793 2.9% Rajasthan 56,34,918 63,16,679 3.9% Uttar Pradesh 1,12,85,665 1,27,48,395 4.2% Tamil Nadu 1,19,14,451 1,35,69,487 4.4% Madhya Pradesh 42,17,923 48,04,395 4.4% Maharashtra 1,01,15,122 1,18,31,838 5.4% Andhra Pradesh 45,32,380 56,07,400 7.4% West Bengal 53,68,490 74,40,023 11.5% Value add of Construction in India is only 37.5 - Indicating it is a highly underutilized growth driver Karnataka : 1.7% Best in class: - Top 3-state average: 8% - Mid-point from KA: 4.9% Source: RBI, CSO © TV Mohandas Pai | © Nisha Holla 17
  • 18. Agriculture Sectoral Gross State Domestic Product - Agriculture (INR lakh) YoY Growth States 2014-15 2017-18 3-year CAGR Tamil Nadu 71,80,913 80,88,905 4.0% Rajasthan 77,60,668 88,46,668 4.5% Maharashtra 1,15,14,126 1,39,59,813 6.6% Punjab 57,15,593 71,41,673 7.7% Gujarat 96,64,066 1,21,58,725 8.0% Bihar 46,22,152 59,43,229 8.7% Uttar Pradesh 1,56,33,361 2,13,60,807 11.0% Karnataka 1,08,95,900 1,49,19,900 11.0% West Bengal 1,01,71,379 1,45,20,957 12.6% Andhra Pradesh 78,89,822 1,15,11,734 13.4% Madhya Pradesh 1,30,94,566 2,29,68,000 20.6% Karnataka : 11% [highly variant from year- to-year, unlike states like MP, UP] Best in class: - Top 3-state average: 15.5% - Mid-point from KA: 13.3% Madhya Pradesh provides a good model with CAGR of 20.6% Source: RBI, ESK © TV Mohandas Pai | © Nisha Holla 18
  • 19. - With current CAGRs, Karnataka may only grow to USD 432 Bn by 2025-26; need to accelerate - Using best-in-class survey, two accelerated models: 1. With mid-point CAGRs between best-in-class in India and MH 2. With higher growth rates by accounting for boosts in specific sub-sectors like manufacturing, construction, financial services and IT services Accelerated Growth Drivers © TV Mohandas Pai | © Nisha Holla 19
  • 20. Accelerated Projections to reach USD 500 Bn Model 1: Not sufficient -> USD 450 billion (using mid-point growth rates studied above) Model 2: KA economy can indeed grow to USD 500 Bn (with accelerated rates) Source: RBI *At INR 74 = 1 USD © TV Mohandas Pai | © Nisha Holla 20 Sector GSDP Current Trendline Accelerated Model 1 Accelerated Model 2 2019-20 CAGR Projected 2025-26 CAGR Projected 2025-26 CAGR1 Projected 2025-26 Services 10.1 14.3% 19.5 15.0% 20.2 17.5% 22.5 Industry 3.5 9.4% 5.9 11.3% 5.9 17.0% 7.6 Agriculture 1.7 3.8% 2.6 13.3% 3.1 13.3% 3.1 GVA (in lakh crore INR) 15.2 - 28.0 - 29.3 - 33.2 Taxes and other 1.8 17.0% 3.9 17.0% 3.9 17.0% 3.9 GSDP (in lakh crore) 17.0 13.2% 31.9 14.3% 33.2 17.0% 37.2 GSDP (in billion USD)* 230 - 432 - 449 - 503
  • 21. 21 © TV Mohandas Pai | © Nisha Holla Next Steps Application of accelerated growth drivers to grow economy to USD 500 Billion by 2026 Policies and investment areas
  • 22. 1. Boost Agri Sector Via Tech, Branding and Marketing • Farmers only accrue 30-35% value-add for non-cereal segments • Cereals have MSP so 80-90% accrual • For non-cereals, if farmers realization increases by 20%, then INR 19,000 crores gross can go directly to farmer • Strategies to increase farmer realization: • Invest in Agri-tech to connect farmers directly to markets • Use of technology platforms to deploy strategies at scale • Create an INR 1,000 crore Fund for Agri-tech • Specific export strategies like Flower Market in Bangalore • Create a global brand for KA Agri to improve realization • Food processing for higher value add • By 2026, reduce workforce-dependence from 35% to 15% by investing in development of industry and services © TV Mohandas Pai | © Nisha Holla 22
  • 23. - Largely in North KA to provide high-growth mass employment - KA first state to have a LII policy, needs implementation with targeted objectives - 70,000 MSMEs registered with a 17,000-factory and heavy engineering base - COVID-19 fallout: Many countries looking to diversify from China - Needs to activate Invest Karnataka and deploy like EDB of Singapore - Karnataka must take advantage - Build excess capacity to capture markets - Geographical trade advantage – proximity to Suez Canal and access to Europe and East Coast of USA - Incentives for private capital to set up LIIs - Develop Mangalore and Karwar ports for exports - High-speed connectivity to ports, freight corridor 2. Labour-Intensive Industries (LIIs 1/2) To boost manufacturing and exports © TV Mohandas Pai | © Nisha Holla 23
  • 24. 2. Labour-Intensive Industries (2/2) To boost manufacturing and exports China’s 2018 exports valued USD 2.5 trillion (INR 177 lakh crores) Top 10 are (% of total exports) Electrical machinery & equipment: INR 47 lakh crores (26.6%) Machinery including computers: INR 30.5 lakh crores (17.2%) Furniture, bedding, lighting, signs, prefab buildings: INR 6.8 lakh crores (3.9%) Plastics, plastic articles: INR 5.7 lakh crores (3.2%) Vehicles: INR 5.3 lakh crores (3%) Knit or crochet clothing, accessories: INR 5.2 lakh crores (2.9%) Clothing, accessories (not knit or crochet): INR 5 lakh crores (2.9%) Optical, technical, medical apparatus: INR 5 lakh crores (2.9%) Articles of iron or steel: INR 4.65 lakh crores (2.6%) Organic chemicals: INR 4.2 lakh crores (2.4%) © TV Mohandas Pai | © Nisha Holla 24
  • 25. 3. Increase Infrastructure Spending Boost construction - Follow China model to develop economy via construction and infrastructure - Large growth driver to revive economy post-COVID with highest backward linkages - Metal consumption, employment, taxes - Avail long term 20-30-year loans for funding - Items: Ports Rural road connectivity Railways Tourism infrastructure Airports Low cost housing Metro Seaside living spaces (like Shanghai) Suvarna Karnataka 8-Lane Expressway from Bidar to Bengaluru with access to MLR and KAR ports Source: ESM © TV Mohandas Pai | © Nisha Holla 25
  • 26. China Model for Construction • Rapidly urbanized from 26% in 1990 to 59% today • Avg. annual growth rate of 16.6% in construction • Value-added output of the industry reached 5.57 trillion yuan in 2017 • 13.9 billion yuan in 1978 • Value-added output of the industry rose to 6.7 percent of GDP in 2017 • 3.8 percent in 1978 • Railways: 52,000 km in 1978 to 127,000 km in 2017 • Including 25,000 km of high-speed railways. • Highways: 130,000km; addition of 10,000km every year since 2011 © TV Mohandas Pai | © Nisha Holla 26
  • 27. 4. Systematic Urbanization (1/2) Karnataka 2011 census: - 31% urban, maybe 43-45% today - Most urbanized state is TN at 49% in 2011 - 29,390 villages – 2,362 abandoned - 281 towns housing 38% of population - 22 towns of 1,00,000+ pop - 1 city of 10,00,000+ pop - Remaining 258 towns have low population - Pick 200 to develop into urban engines of growth Source: Census 2011 © TV Mohandas Pai | © Nisha Holla 27
  • 28. Labour- intensive industries Infrastructure, and amenities Planning for capacity New sustainable technologies to offset urban spread 4. Systematic Urbanization 200 Towns (2/2) © TV Mohandas Pai | © Nisha Holla Develop and connect 200 towns with best-in-class infrastructure, connectivity and amenities Renewables, water and sewage treatment facilities, public transportation, EV infrastructure, planned tree cover, and more Plan for the future, not the present 20-50-year forecast models Mass employment opportunities With training and skilling facilities High-growth industries Export markets 28
  • 29. - NITI-Aayog’s Aspirational district program has launched a direct assault on poverty, and is already yielding good results - 115 poor districts all over the country have been chosen to dramatically improve development - Since Karnataka is one of India’s forward states, we have only 2 districts in the program - Need CM Aspirational District Program for bottom 20 districts 5. Aspirational District Program (1/2) Source: NITI Aayog © TV Mohandas Pai | © Nisha Holla 29
  • 30. 5. CM Aspirational District Program (2/2) - Pop-weighted avg. of 10 Richest districts is 2x of Middle Districts and 3x of Poorest Districts - Need to reduce drag on economy and develop bottom 20 - With CM Aspirational District Program, bottom 20 districts can grow faster than the state Source: ESM © TV Mohandas Pai | © Nisha Holla 30
  • 31. 6. Higher Education (1/2) - Essential to human capital development - GER currently 28.8 (2019) - Lags behind other southern states, all above 32 Source: CSO © TV Mohandas Pai | © Nisha Holla 31 State GER State GER West Bengal 19.3 Karnataka 28.8 Gujarat 20.4 Andhra Pradesh 32.4 Madhya Pradesh 21.5 Maharashtra 32.0 Rajasthan 23.0 Telangana 36.2 Uttar Pradesh 25.8 Kerala 37.0 All India 26.3 Tamil Nadu 49.0
  • 32. 6. Higher Education (2/2) - GER currently 28.8 (2019) - Projected to grow to 33.8 in 2025 - We must aim for 40 by 2025 and 50 by 2030 - Invest in more colleges and universities, and staff training, especially in N KA - Fund R&D in universities through FoFs - Build industry focus – IT, space, biotechnology, etc have been phenomenal successes in the state Source: CSO © TV Mohandas Pai | © Nisha Holla 32 2011-12 2018-19 CAGR Projected 2024-25 Enrolment 17,60,964 19,88,494 1.75% 22,06,780 18-23 population 74,01,674 69,12,759 -0.97% 65,19,476 GER 23.8 28.8 - 33.8 Pass-out 5,78,650 5,29,026 -1.27% -
  • 33. 7. Specialized Industries To boost manufacturing and exports - US and China both have significant innovation spending budgets - Source of socio-economic and political strength - Karnataka already leads India in specialized and future technologies - Create INR 10,000 cr. Fund-of-funds over 5 years - For deep research, intellectual property generation, and specialized workforces - Centres of Excellence, grants, R&D laboratories, manufacturing facilities - This investment will yield massive output and growth over next decade - Areas Electronics component design 3D printing Hardware design and manufacturing Robotics Defence parts manufacturing Medical devices Renewable energy innovation New materials Advanced Pharmaceuticals Space applications © TV Mohandas Pai | © Nisha Holla
  • 34. 8. Bengaluru: Global Hi-Tech City - Bengaluru consists of an estimated 60% of the state economy - Third-highest tax revenues in India - Inadequate investment in infrastructure, branding and incentives for global presence like tax holidays © TV Mohandas Pai | © Nisha Holla 34 Source: CSO
  • 35. 9. IT Services - IT services value-add is 70.6 - Today KA contributes 38% to India’s IT exports. IT accounts for 25% of state economy. Can expand - We have the infrastructure, corporate and startup base for this. 20 lakh are directly employed, out of which only 11 lakh are native from the state - Must build workforce pipeline – training, higher education, grants - Centres of Excellence, R&D laboratories: - AI/ML - Cybersecurity - Blockchain - Internet-of-Things - Enterprise automation - Agri tech © TV Mohandas Pai | © Nisha Holla 35 Source: CSO, ESK
  • 36. 10. Invest in Start-up Ecosystem - India has the third largest start-up base - 39,000+ startups - USD 160 Bn value created - 250+ incubators/accelerators - 500+ institutional investors - 33 unicorns - Bengaluru is Top start-up destination - 40% of companies founded since 2016 - USD 31 Bn raised since 2010 - 1 in every 4 startups are deep tech/FinTech/Health Tech - 44% of unicorns with 57% of cumulative unicorn value - 64/148 Indian Soonicorns - 431 VC Funds, ~5,000 angel investors, 32 Corporate VC Funds - Karnataka must create an INR 5,000 crore Fund-of- Funds to invest in start-ups - Information Tech - Financial Tech - Biotech and life sciences - Other focus areas Source: YourStory, Inc42 © TV Mohandas Pai | © Nisha Holla 36
  • 37. Indicators Employment, education and GDP - Karnataka created: - 10% of total EPFO jobs in India in FY’19 - 11.5% of jobs in the 18-28 age bracket - Only 5.7% of India’s graduates in FY’17 were from KA - KA’s coverage ratio is 106% - the state is creating more formal jobs than graduates indicating mass migration towards the state as an engine of growth Source: EPFO, AISHE, CSO, ESM © TV Mohandas Pai | © Nisha Holla 37 Parameter Karnataka All-India % KA to India EPFO Total Jobs (FY'19) 6,18,080 61,12,223 10.1% EPFO Ages 18-28 (FY'19) 5,38,830 46,93,462 11.5% Pass-outs (FY'18) 5,06,839 89,68,546 5.7% Coverage ratio 106.31% 52.33% - GER 27.8 25.8 - GDP (INR lakh crore FY'20) 17.0 205.0 8.3%
  • 38. 11. Fertility and Population - KA’s fertility rates and population growth rates in fast decline - TFR could have declined to 1.7 in 2020 - Much lower than India-average of 2.0 in 2020 - Soon we will have a large ageing population with shrinking workforce - Human capital development to improve quality and productivity of workforce is critical - Inclusion of all groups and regions in high-growth imperative TFR State NFHS - 4 NFHS - 3 NFHS - 2 2013-15 2003-05 1996-98 Tamil Nadu 1.70 1.80 2.19 Karnataka 1.80 2.07 2.13 Maharashtra 1.87 2.11 2.52 Gujarat 2.03 2.42 2.72 India 2.18 2.68 2.85 Madhya Pradesh 2.32 3.12 3.43 Rajasthan 2.40 3.21 3.78 Bihar 3.41 4.00 3.70 Source: NFHS-4, CRS 2017 © TV Mohandas Pai | © Nisha Holla 38
  • 39. Conclusion - Karnataka is one of the Top 3 states of India - Has to grow faster than India over the next six years to reach USD 500 Billion - Business-as-usual (BAU) will not get the state there - Needs progressive policies to grow parts of economy with higher value-add that can grow faster, and create more jobs - Must lead in the innovation-driven knowledge economy of the future, especially start-ups - Requires a special monitoring group to execute the USD 500 Bn vision © TV Mohandas Pai | © Nisha Holla 39
  • 40. Authors 40 © TV Mohandas Pai | © Nisha Holla Nisha Holla C-CAMP Technology Fellow Co-founder, Biomoneta Research Applied Materials, CA USA Bloom Energy, CA USA MS, Carnegie Mellon University TV Mohandas Pai Chairman, 3one4 Capital Chairman, Aarin Capital Chairman, Manipal Global Education Founder-Trustee, Akshaya Patra Foundation Chair of SEBI Committees Board of Governors, National Investment and Infrastructure Fund (NIIF) Former CFO and Board Member, Infosys Former President, AIMA Padma Shri and Karnataka Rajyotsava awardee The authors write regularly about the Indian economy, education, employment, and technology.