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Machine Learning in the Corporate
Bond Market
Julien Alexandre
Senior Research Analyst
MarketAxess
WHEN TWO WORLDS COLLIDE
Machine Learning in the Corporate Bond Market
JULIEN ALEXANDRE
MarketAxess.com | ©2019 MarketAxess Holdings Inc. (the “Company”). MarketAxess, the MarketAxess logo, Open Trading, Trax, and “Now you’re in the market” are
trademarks of the Company. MarketAxess Corporation is a member of FINRA and SIPC. MarketAxess Europe Limited and MarketAxess Capital Limited are authorised and
regulated by the UK Financial Conduct Authority. MarketAxess Singapore Pte. Limited is recognised by the Monetary Authority of Singapore. This information is not
intended to represent an offer or solicitation of any financial instrument. Proprietary and confidential information of the Company—all forms of copying prohibited.
Bond market 101: the corporate bond market is massive and opaque
Trading Venue
Size &
Fragmentation
Turnover
Share of e-trading
1. Source: NYSE and NASDAQ
2. Source: Bank of International Settlements
MarketAxess.com | ©2019 MarketAxess Holdings Inc. (the “Company”). MarketAxess, the MarketAxess logo, Open Trading, Trax, and “Now you’re in the market” are
trademarks of the Company. MarketAxess Corporation is a member of FINRA and SIPC. MarketAxess Europe Limited and MarketAxess Capital Limited are authorised and
regulated by the UK Financial Conduct Authority. MarketAxess Singapore Pte. Limited is recognised by the Monetary Authority of Singapore. This information is not
intended to represent an offer or solicitation of any financial instrument. Proprietary and confidential information of the Company—all forms of copying prohibited.
MarketAxess is at the heart of market infrastructure supporting
the entire corporate bond trade lifecycle 4
Open Trading™
All-to-all
All market participants can
be both liquidity maker and
taker.
Voice
One to few
An investor seeks prices
from a few dealers over
the phone, often taking
hours to complete.
Electronic
One to many
An expanded liquidity pool
leads to greater efficiency
Bonds trade over
the counter
22,000 corporate
bonds outstanding
in the US
Price Takers Price Makers
Pricing corporate
bonds is difficult+ =
Few bonds
trade
everyday
+
MarketAxess.com | ©2019 MarketAxess Holdings Inc. (the “Company”). MarketAxess, the MarketAxess logo, Open Trading, Trax, and “Now you’re in the market” are
trademarks of the Company. MarketAxess Corporation is a member of FINRA and SIPC. MarketAxess Europe Limited and MarketAxess Capital Limited are authorised and
regulated by the UK Financial Conduct Authority. MarketAxess Singapore Pte. Limited is recognised by the Monetary Authority of Singapore. This information is not
intended to represent an offer or solicitation of any financial instrument. Proprietary and confidential information of the Company—all forms of copying prohibited.
It’s a data-driven world… even in the opaque corporate
bond market
MarketAxess.com | ©2019 MarketAxess Holdings Inc. (the “Company”). MarketAxess, the MarketAxess logo, Open Trading, Trax, and “Now you’re in the market” are
trademarks of the Company. MarketAxess Corporation is a member of FINRA and SIPC. MarketAxess Europe Limited and MarketAxess Capital Limited are authorised and
regulated by the UK Financial Conduct Authority. MarketAxess Singapore Pte. Limited is recognised by the Monetary Authority of Singapore. This information is not
intended to represent an offer or solicitation of any financial instrument. Proprietary and confidential information of the Company—all forms of copying prohibited.
Composite+™ applies AI to obtain the most consistent and
accurate prices
6
SOLUTION
• Composite+ aggregates diverse but well-understood
data points
• Into well-defined and consistent prices
• By solving a supervised Machine Learning model
CHALLENGE
• There are more than 22,000 bonds outstanding in
the US alone, most of which don’t trade every day
• At time t, a bond doesn’t have a price but
multitudes of prices.
• Example: size impact
$99.96
$99.97
$99.98
$99.99
$100.00
$100.01
$100.02
$100.03
$100.04
$100.05
$10k -
$50k
$50k -
$100k
$100k -
$150k
$150k -
$250k
$250k -
$500k
$500k -
$1MM
$1MM -
$3MM
$3MM -
$5MM
>$5MM
Trade Size
Price variation by size for a baseline price of $100
1 bond at 1 point in time
FEATURE
ENGINEERING
Diverse
but
well-understood
data points
PREDICT
TRADE PRICE
CALIBRATION
FILTER THE
TRAINING DATA
MarketAxess.com | ©2019 MarketAxess Holdings Inc. (the “Company”). MarketAxess, the MarketAxess logo, Open Trading, Trax, and “Now you’re in the market” are
trademarks of the Company. MarketAxess Corporation is a member of FINRA and SIPC. MarketAxess Europe Limited and MarketAxess Capital Limited are authorised and
regulated by the UK Financial Conduct Authority. MarketAxess Singapore Pte. Limited is recognised by the Monetary Authority of Singapore. This information is not
intended to represent an offer or solicitation of any financial instrument. Proprietary and confidential information of the Company—all forms of copying prohibited. 7
Composite+ transforms low quality data points into high
quality market data to drive automation and efficiency
+ +
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
++
+
+
+
+
Trade Tapes
TRACE/Trax
All sizes
All sides
MarketAxess
Trading Platform
RFQ data
Streaming
Prices
From Banks
Transaction cost
analysis
Automated
Trading
Price discovery
Market-making
Inputs Applications
MarketAxess.com | ©2019 MarketAxess Holdings Inc. (the “Company”). MarketAxess, the MarketAxess logo, Open Trading, Trax, and “Now you’re in the market” are
trademarks of the Company. MarketAxess Corporation is a member of FINRA and SIPC. MarketAxess Europe Limited and MarketAxess Capital Limited are authorised and
regulated by the UK Financial Conduct Authority. MarketAxess Singapore Pte. Limited is recognised by the Monetary Authority of Singapore. This information is not
intended to represent an offer or solicitation of any financial instrument. Proprietary and confidential information of the Company—all forms of copying prohibited. 8
JOIN US! Let’s continue to change the face of electronic bond
trading together
Julien Alexandre, MarketAxess - When two worlds collide: Machine Learning in the Corporate Bond Market - H2O World 2019 NYC

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Julien Alexandre, MarketAxess - When two worlds collide: Machine Learning in the Corporate Bond Market - H2O World 2019 NYC

  • 1. Machine Learning in the Corporate Bond Market Julien Alexandre Senior Research Analyst MarketAxess
  • 2. WHEN TWO WORLDS COLLIDE Machine Learning in the Corporate Bond Market JULIEN ALEXANDRE
  • 3. MarketAxess.com | ©2019 MarketAxess Holdings Inc. (the “Company”). MarketAxess, the MarketAxess logo, Open Trading, Trax, and “Now you’re in the market” are trademarks of the Company. MarketAxess Corporation is a member of FINRA and SIPC. MarketAxess Europe Limited and MarketAxess Capital Limited are authorised and regulated by the UK Financial Conduct Authority. MarketAxess Singapore Pte. Limited is recognised by the Monetary Authority of Singapore. This information is not intended to represent an offer or solicitation of any financial instrument. Proprietary and confidential information of the Company—all forms of copying prohibited. Bond market 101: the corporate bond market is massive and opaque Trading Venue Size & Fragmentation Turnover Share of e-trading 1. Source: NYSE and NASDAQ 2. Source: Bank of International Settlements
  • 4. MarketAxess.com | ©2019 MarketAxess Holdings Inc. (the “Company”). MarketAxess, the MarketAxess logo, Open Trading, Trax, and “Now you’re in the market” are trademarks of the Company. MarketAxess Corporation is a member of FINRA and SIPC. MarketAxess Europe Limited and MarketAxess Capital Limited are authorised and regulated by the UK Financial Conduct Authority. MarketAxess Singapore Pte. Limited is recognised by the Monetary Authority of Singapore. This information is not intended to represent an offer or solicitation of any financial instrument. Proprietary and confidential information of the Company—all forms of copying prohibited. MarketAxess is at the heart of market infrastructure supporting the entire corporate bond trade lifecycle 4 Open Trading™ All-to-all All market participants can be both liquidity maker and taker. Voice One to few An investor seeks prices from a few dealers over the phone, often taking hours to complete. Electronic One to many An expanded liquidity pool leads to greater efficiency Bonds trade over the counter 22,000 corporate bonds outstanding in the US Price Takers Price Makers Pricing corporate bonds is difficult+ = Few bonds trade everyday +
  • 5. MarketAxess.com | ©2019 MarketAxess Holdings Inc. (the “Company”). MarketAxess, the MarketAxess logo, Open Trading, Trax, and “Now you’re in the market” are trademarks of the Company. MarketAxess Corporation is a member of FINRA and SIPC. MarketAxess Europe Limited and MarketAxess Capital Limited are authorised and regulated by the UK Financial Conduct Authority. MarketAxess Singapore Pte. Limited is recognised by the Monetary Authority of Singapore. This information is not intended to represent an offer or solicitation of any financial instrument. Proprietary and confidential information of the Company—all forms of copying prohibited. It’s a data-driven world… even in the opaque corporate bond market
  • 6. MarketAxess.com | ©2019 MarketAxess Holdings Inc. (the “Company”). MarketAxess, the MarketAxess logo, Open Trading, Trax, and “Now you’re in the market” are trademarks of the Company. MarketAxess Corporation is a member of FINRA and SIPC. MarketAxess Europe Limited and MarketAxess Capital Limited are authorised and regulated by the UK Financial Conduct Authority. MarketAxess Singapore Pte. Limited is recognised by the Monetary Authority of Singapore. This information is not intended to represent an offer or solicitation of any financial instrument. Proprietary and confidential information of the Company—all forms of copying prohibited. Composite+™ applies AI to obtain the most consistent and accurate prices 6 SOLUTION • Composite+ aggregates diverse but well-understood data points • Into well-defined and consistent prices • By solving a supervised Machine Learning model CHALLENGE • There are more than 22,000 bonds outstanding in the US alone, most of which don’t trade every day • At time t, a bond doesn’t have a price but multitudes of prices. • Example: size impact $99.96 $99.97 $99.98 $99.99 $100.00 $100.01 $100.02 $100.03 $100.04 $100.05 $10k - $50k $50k - $100k $100k - $150k $150k - $250k $250k - $500k $500k - $1MM $1MM - $3MM $3MM - $5MM >$5MM Trade Size Price variation by size for a baseline price of $100 1 bond at 1 point in time FEATURE ENGINEERING Diverse but well-understood data points PREDICT TRADE PRICE CALIBRATION FILTER THE TRAINING DATA
  • 7. MarketAxess.com | ©2019 MarketAxess Holdings Inc. (the “Company”). MarketAxess, the MarketAxess logo, Open Trading, Trax, and “Now you’re in the market” are trademarks of the Company. MarketAxess Corporation is a member of FINRA and SIPC. MarketAxess Europe Limited and MarketAxess Capital Limited are authorised and regulated by the UK Financial Conduct Authority. MarketAxess Singapore Pte. Limited is recognised by the Monetary Authority of Singapore. This information is not intended to represent an offer or solicitation of any financial instrument. Proprietary and confidential information of the Company—all forms of copying prohibited. 7 Composite+ transforms low quality data points into high quality market data to drive automation and efficiency + + + + + + + + + + + ++ + + + + Trade Tapes TRACE/Trax All sizes All sides MarketAxess Trading Platform RFQ data Streaming Prices From Banks Transaction cost analysis Automated Trading Price discovery Market-making Inputs Applications
  • 8. MarketAxess.com | ©2019 MarketAxess Holdings Inc. (the “Company”). MarketAxess, the MarketAxess logo, Open Trading, Trax, and “Now you’re in the market” are trademarks of the Company. MarketAxess Corporation is a member of FINRA and SIPC. MarketAxess Europe Limited and MarketAxess Capital Limited are authorised and regulated by the UK Financial Conduct Authority. MarketAxess Singapore Pte. Limited is recognised by the Monetary Authority of Singapore. This information is not intended to represent an offer or solicitation of any financial instrument. Proprietary and confidential information of the Company—all forms of copying prohibited. 8 JOIN US! Let’s continue to change the face of electronic bond trading together

Editor's Notes

  1. Voice = Hub and spoke Takers gather prices from makers via phone – inefficient and time consuming With participants interacting in new ways it makes pricing more important allowing price takers to become price makers
  2. Pricing is challenging The solution is to combine ML and market microstructure expertise. With Market Microstructure expertise, we understand the meaning of every single data point With AI we have the freedom to aggregate very diverse data points
  3. Enable new participants in market making Doing more with less Improves efficiency and reduces t cost Greater competition leads to better pricing outcome