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Equity Research Report – Vail Resorts Inc. (MTN)
Analyst: Jay T Anderson
12/15/15
University of Utah Student Investment Fund
Advisor: Elizabeth Tashjian
2
Table of Contents
Executive Summary.....................................................................................................................................4
Company Overview.....................................................................................................................................5
Industry Analysis.........................................................................................................................................6
Major Players Market Share....................................................................................................................6
Consolidating Market...............................................................................................................................6
Growth Factors and Risks ........................................................................................................................7
Climate Analysis ..........................................................................................................................................8
El Niño ......................................................................................................................................................9
Business Model............................................................................................................................................9
Mountain (79% of FY 2015 Revenue)......................................................................................................9
Lodging (18% of FY 2015 Revenue)......................................................................................................11
Real Estate (3% of FY 2015 Revenue)...................................................................................................12
Product Analysis........................................................................................................................................13
Lift Tickets..............................................................................................................................................13
Growth Strategy.........................................................................................................................................14
High-end Destination Guests .................................................................................................................15
Pricing Strategy and Acquisitions .........................................................................................................15
Leverage Fixed Cost Base.......................................................................................................................15
Data-driven Targeted Marketing..........................................................................................................15
Reinvestment in Guest Experience.........................................................................................................16
Risks........................................................................................................................................................16
Conclusion ..............................................................................................................................................17
Corporate Employees................................................................................................................................17
Management Team ................................................................................................................................17
Management Compensation..................................................................................................................19
Summary of Ownership..........................................................................................................................20
Management Key Goals and Analysis....................................................................................................20
Employee Overview................................................................................................................................22
Employee Satisfaction and Benefits ......................................................................................................23
Competitive Advantages...........................................................................................................................24
Epic Pass.................................................................................................................................................24
Market Leader........................................................................................................................................24
3
High Income Guests................................................................................................................................24
Premium Pricing ....................................................................................................................................24
Facility Improvements ...........................................................................................................................25
Financial and Ratio Analysis.....................................................................................................................25
Income Statement ..................................................................................................................................25
Balance Sheet .........................................................................................................................................27
Capital Structure....................................................................................................................................28
Ratios......................................................................................................................................................29
Stock Price Analysis ..................................................................................................................................30
Valuation....................................................................................................................................................31
Discounted Cash Flow Analysis..............................................................................................................31
Multiples Analysis...................................................................................................................................35
Sensitivity Analysis.................................................................................................................................36
Conclusion..................................................................................................................................................37
4
Executive Summary
Vail Resorts Inc. (NYSE:MTN) runs eleven premier mountain resorts throughout the United
States and one in Australia along with a portfolio of luxury hotels and real estate. The
company operates mountain resorts in Colorado, Utah, California, Nevada, Minnesota,
Michigan, and Australia. Vail Resorts is the largest mountain resort holding company in the
United States, maintaining nearly 34% of revenues in the industry.
The company generates revenues through its mountain, lodging, and real estate segments.
Vail’s resorts are luxurious travel destinations, and the average income of each destination
guest at its resorts is $295K. Hence, Vail Resorts follows a premium pricing strategy for its
primary revenue driver, lift tickets. The company also offers value lift tickets such as the
Epic Pass, which allows unlimited access to Vail’s twelve resorts and ten other resorts
worldwide. Vail Resorts has recently experienced substantial revenue growth from
acquisitions and an increase in Epic Pass sales.
The ski and snowboard resort industry is competitive. It is in a consolidating phase, as
many resorts are being sold, consolidated, or closing down because of declining revenues,
poor winters, and lack of capital investment. Growth drivers for the industry include
upgrades to existing resorts, acquisitions, consumer’s time spent on leisure and vacations,
season pass strategy, disposable income, and annual precipitation. Risks to the industry
include climate change, government permits, the high fixed cost structure of a mountain
resort, and seasonal business.
The company’s management team is headlined by CEO Robert Katz, who has been with the
company since the early 1990s. After being appointed CEO in 2006, he lead the
introduction of the Epic Pass and initiated Vail’s acquisition and capital investment
strategy.
Vail Resorts has outperformed the S&P 500 by nearly 44% year-to-date. As of December
15, 2015, the company’s stock trades at $129.74 per share. An average of multiples and
discounted cash flow analysis values the stock at $145.88, which reflects 12.4% upside. I
recommend the University of Utah Student Investment Fund buy this stock. The company is
bolstered by its competitive advantages which include the Epic Pass, a market leading
position, dedication to facility improvements, a premium pricing strategy, and high income
customers.
5
Company Overview
Vail Resorts, Inc. is a premiere mountain resort company and an industry leader in luxury
and destination based travel. The company operates resorts that include skiing and
snowboarding terrain, dining, luxury hotel rooms, condominiums, and other products and
services. Vail’s mission statement is “Experience of a Lifetime,” as the company strives to
provide an exceptional experience for its guests and employees.1 Vail Mountain first
opened in 1962. It has evolved into a resort holding company that filed for its initial public
offering in 1997 at a price of $22.00 per share. The company is headquartered in
Broomfield, Colorado.
During the 2014/2015 season, Vail Resorts had 8.2 million skier visits, or 15.3% of the U.S.
market.2 Vail Resorts is best known for its portfolio of world-class mountain resorts and ski
areas which are listed below.3
1
Vail Corporate (vailresorts.com). Retrieved December 14, 2015
2
Vail Resorts, Inc. (2015) Form 10-K 2015
3
Vail Resorts, Inc. (2015) Form 10-K 2015
Colorado
•Breceknridge Ski Resort - (Most visited mountain resort in the U.S.)
•Vail Mountain - (Second most visited mountain resort in the U.S.)
•Keystone Resort - (Third most visited mountain resort in the U.S.)
•Beaver Creek Resort - (Fifth most visited mountain resort in the U.S.)
Lake Tahoe Area of California and Nevada
•Heavenly Mountain Resort - (Largest snowmaking capacity in the Lake Tahoe region)
•Northtar Resort
•Kirkwood Mountain Resort
Utah
•Park City Mountain Resort - (Recently acquired in 2014)
•Canyons Resort - (Largest mountain resort in Utah, recently acquired in 2013)
•The two Utah resorts will be combined to create the largest mountain resort in the U.S.
Michigan
•Mount Brighton Ski Area
Minnesota
•Afton Alps Ski Area - (Largest ski area near a major city in the Midwest)
Australia
•Perisher Resort - (Largest and most visited resort in Australia, recently acquired in June 2015)
6
Listed below is selected financial and stock information for Vail Resorts as of 12/15/15.45
Vail Resorts Inc. (MTN)
Industry Analysis
Vail Resorts resides in the ski and snowboard resort, hotel, and real estate industries. The
ski and snowboard resort industry will be the point of emphasis during this analysis,
because it is the clear driver of revenue for the company. This industry includes businesses
that operate downhill, cross-country, and other winter mountain recreation. Revenue is
largely generated by the skiing facilities, equipment rental, ski schools, concessions, and
merchandise.6 The hotel and real estate divisions have the similar drivers as the resorts,
because demand for them is derived from the demand for the mountain recreation division.
Major Players Market Share
Vail Resorts currently maintains 33.6% of the market share in the United States by
revenue, with the next two largest players being Intrawest Corporation and Boyne Resorts,
with 8.5% and 7.5% market share respectively.7
Consolidating Market
Currently, the number of ski resorts in the industry is not growing. In fact, many resorts are
being sold, consolidated, or closing down because of declining revenues, poor winters, and
lack of capital investment. At the Snowsports Industries America trade show in January
2015, industry leaders convened to discuss the challenges facing the ski resort industry.
4
Yahoo Finance. Retrieved December 15, 2015
5
S&P Capital IQ. Retrieved December 15, 2015
6
Alvarez, A. (2014, December 1). Ski & Snowboard Resorts in the US: Market Research Report. Retrieved
September 28, 2015
7
Alvarez, A. (2014, December). Ski & Snowboard Resorts in the US: Market Research Report. Retrieved September
28, 2015
 Price: $129.74
 Market Cap: $4.44B
 Beta: .89
 Dividend Yield: 2.04%
 Forward P/E: 33.24x
 Debt/Equity: 92.8%
 ROA: 6.3%
 Earnings increased at
24% CAGR the past
six years
 YOY Qtrly Revenue
Growth: 19.6%
 52-Week High
(12/15/15) : $130.42
7
Bill Jensen, a reputable industry executive who previously worked for Vail Resorts,
explained at the conference that “150 of the current 470 ski resorts in the United States are
going to fail and turn off the lifts”.8 Hence, with the lack of growth in resorts, existing resort
operators are left with the opportunity to acquire these properties within the industry.
Growth Factors and Risks
The following are key drivers for profit in the industry.
 Domestic vacations
 International vacations
 Disposable income
 Time spent on leisure and sports
 Season pass strategy
 Upgrades to existing resorts
 Acquisitions of existing resorts
These are unique risks often associated with the industry.
 Seasonal business
 High fixed cost structure of a mountain resort
 Government permits and environmental regulation
 Climate change
This industry has seen an average revenue growth of 2.5% from 2009 to 2014, with Vail
Resorts reporting average growth of 6.3%.9 Growth for the industry is expected to continue
at 2.3% through 2019.10 Volatile snow conditions lead to minimal industry growth from
2010 to 2012, but in 2013 industry revenue increased by 6.4% as precipitation recovered.
The U.S. consumer confidence index has improved substantially in recent years, rising from
25.3 in 2009 to 101.4 in June of 2014.11 During the past two years, the S&P Leisure Facilities
Index has increased about 15%, compared to a 6% return from the S&P 500.12 Consumers
are willing to spend more money, and per capita disposable income has a positive outlook,
barring a significant economic downturn. The strong performance from the U.S. dollar might
decrease the number of international visitors in the coming years; however, through April of
2015, the recent strengthening of the dollar did not have a significant impact on inbound
international travel rates.13
8
Barber, M. (2015, January 29). Ski Industry Expert Says 31% of Today's Ski Areas Are Dying. Retrieved November
16, 2015
9
Alvarez, A. (2014, December 1). Ski & Snowboard Resorts in the US: Market Research Report. Retrieved
September 28, 2015
10
Alvarez, A. (2014, December 1). Ski & Snowboard Resorts in the US: Market Research Report. Retrieved
September 28, 2015
11
S&P Capital IQ. (2015, September 26). Vail Resorts Inc. Stock Report. Retrieved September 28, 2015.
12
S&P 500 Annual Returns. Retrieved September 28, 2015, from http://finance.google.com/
13
Turner, S. (2015, April 2). Hotels not yet seeing strong US dollar impact. Retrieved September 28, 2015
8
The percentage of revenue from local visitors has increased during the last five years.
Currently, local visitors account for 41.4% of resort revenue.14 This was driven by a decline
in destination visitors, but the future trends of revenue and consumer demand are expected
to rise, thus driving domestic travel. The Bureau of Economic Analysis predicts per capita
disposable income will increase at a CAGR of 2.4% from 2015-2020, in contrast to 1.5%
during the last five years.15
At the end of 2014, four firms accounted for 60% of the industry’s revenue. Climate change,
poor winters, and high fixed costs associated with the industry necessitate expensive
technological advances such as snowmaking equipment and new ski lifts, which has
accounted for an increase in acquisitions, as small regional firms get purchased by large
operators with more efficient and capital intensive management.16 Also, the expenses of
government permits and adapting to environmental regulation make it more difficult for
resorts with less access to capital and snowmaking equipment to withstand poor snow
seasons. Large firms also have the ability to offer multi-resort passes. Holding companies in
the industry integrate cost-saving, capital intensive, and consumer-enticing strategies, thus
creating a barrier to entry for new resorts not operated by a parent company.
Special Use Permits are granted to resorts by the United States government, allowing them
to use federal land for 30 years. Resorts are entirely dependent on permits, licenses, and
agreements to have access to adequate water and land to carry out operations. Despite the
heavy regulation, trends are historically steady and expected remain so in the future.17
Climate Analysis
Although average rainfall is expected to increase moderately in the next five years, global
climate change is one of the largest threats to the industry.18 Lower global precipitation
requires companies in the industry to increase spending to improve snow conditions with
artificial snow. Throughout the world, 95% of ski areas rely on snowmaking to sustain
regular season schedules.19 In 2012, the Natural Resources Defense Council predicted that
winter temperatures could rise up to 4 to 10 degrees on average during the next century,
resulting in a shorter snow seasons.20 The council recommends immediate action to reduce
greenhouse emissions, which are believed to be the main catalyst for rising temperatures.
14
Alvarez, A. (2014, December 1). Ski & Snowboard Resorts in the US: Market Research Report. Retrieved
September 28, 2015
15
Business Environment Report: Per capita disposable income. (2015, March). Retrieved September 28, 2015.
16
Alvarez, A. (2014, December 1). Ski & Snowboard Resorts in the US: Market Research Report. Retrieved
September 28, 2015
17
Alvarez, A. (2014, December 1). Ski & Snowboard Resorts in the US: Market Research Report. Retrieved
September 28, 2015
18
Alvarez, A. (2014, December 1). Ski & Snowboard Resorts in the US: Market Research Report. Retrieved
September 28, 2015
19
Brunette, K. (2015, May 5). Climate Change Casualty: What the ski industry stands to lose. Retrieved September
28, 2015
20
Burakowski, E. (2012, December). Natural Resources Defense Council, “Climate Impacts on the Winter Tourism
Economy in the U.S." Retrieved September 28, 2015
9
Resorts have joined an initiative to support inhibiting climate change. Over 190 resorts in
the United States have adopted the Sustainable Slopes Program to promote renewable and
green energy use at resorts, protect wildlife, and educate guests on sustainable
environmental practices. The program has resulted in cost savings for participants.21
El Niño
The National Weather Service is
predicting a strong El Niño weather
pattern for the Northern Hemisphere
through winter 2015-2016.22 Colorado
and Lake Tahoe ski resorts are likely to
see above average snowfall during this
weather phenomenon, which would be
beneficial to Vail’s resorts in those
areas.23 The picture on the right,
courtesy of the National Weather
Service, depicts the precipitation
outlook from December 2015 to
February 2016.
Business Model
Vail Resorts makes money through three different
segments: mountain, lodging and real estate. Each
segment generated 79%, 18%, and 3% of revenue
respectively in the 2015 fiscal year.24
Mountain (79% of FY 2015 Revenue)
Vail Resorts operates the three most visited mountain
resorts in the United States: Vail Mountain Resort,
Breckenridge Ski Resort, and Keystone Resort. The
company manages eleven total resorts in Colorado,
Utah, California, Nevada, Minnesota, and Michigan. On March 30, 2015, Vail acquired its
first international resort, Perisher Resort in New South Wales, Australia. Vail owns 9 out of
its 12 resorts and has long-term leases at Canyons, Northstar, and Perisher.25
21
Alvarez, A. (2014, December 1). Ski & Snowboard Resorts in the US: Market Research Report. Retrieved
September 28, 2015
22
National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center. Retrieved December 14, 2015
23
Tarmy, J. (2015, November 19). How El Nino Will Affect Ski Season in America. Retrieved December 15, 2015
24
Vail Resorts, Inc. (2015) Form 10-K 2015
25
Vail Resorts, Inc. (2015) Form 10-K 2015
79%
18%
3%
Segements by Revenue
Mountain Lodging Real Estate
10
The company’s mountain segment produces revenue through various means including lift
tickets, season passes, equipment rentals, ski and snowboarding lessons, retail
merchandise, dining, private club operations, and other winter and summer recreational
activities. Vail Resorts leases some commercial space to third party operators. During the
last three fiscal years, lift tickets and season passes have accounted for 46.8% of this
segment’s revenue.26
Destination guests made up 59% of
resort visits, compared to in-state
customers which comprised 41%
during the 2014/2015 season.27
Destination guests usually purchase
higher priced lift tickets, lodging, ski
lessons, and rental services. In-state
guests are generally more concerned
with value and the weather, and they
primarily generate revenue for Vail
Resorts through the purchase of season passes, which offer flexibility for customers and a
hedge to weather sensitivity for the company. The Epic Pass accounted for 40% of lift pass
revenue during the 2014/2015 season.28 The amount of passes purchased online has
increased substantially in the last two fiscal years, from 35% to 55% of total sales.29
Moving forward, online sales will likely be a large driver of Vail’s revenue.
The mountain segment’s cost structure includes significant fixed costs to lease land, with
variable costs such as Forest Service fees, labor, and credit card fees. Vail’s operating
expense for the mountain segment from 2013-2015 largely was driven by the cost of labor,
accounting for 37.6% of variable expenses. The company is set to pay $3.2 billion in
contractual obligations in the foreseeable future, with $357.4 million due next year,
showing the dominating aspect of fixed costs in the company.
(2015 10-K)
26
Vail Resorts, Inc. (2015) Form 10-K 2015
27
Vail Resorts, Inc. (2015) Form 10-K 2015
28
Vail Resorts, Inc. (2015) Form 10-K 2015
29
Vail Resorts, Inc. (2015) Investor Presentation 2015
Mountain Net Revenue (thousands) 2015 2014 2013 Avg % of Total
Lift 536,458$ 447,271$ 390,820$ 46.8%
Ski school 126,206 109,442 95,254 11.3%
Dinning 101,010 89,892 81,175 9.3%
Retail/rental 219,153 210,387 199,418 21.4%
Other 121,202 106,581 100,847 11.2%
Total 1,104,029$ 963,573$ 867,514$
35%
55%
FY14 FY15
Online Share of Ticket Purchases
11
(2015 10-K)
(2015 10-K)
Lodging (18% of FY 2015 Revenue)
Vail’s lodging segment owns and manages approximately 5,000 total hotel and
condominium rooms at its resort properties.30 While most of these rooms are located at ski
and snowboard resorts, Vail also owns summer destination resorts in the Grand Teton
National Park and headwaters Lodge & Cabins at Flagg Ranch, which is between Grand
Teton National Park and Yellowstone National Park. Other substantial revenue generators
include restaurants, seven company owned golf courses in Utah, Colorado, Wyoming, and
California, and a resort ground transportation company in Colorado.
The business for this segment is very seasonal. It usually reports losses from spring to late
fall, even though it is the peak season for Vail’s summer resorts, Australia based Perisher
Resort, and golf courses.31 The performance of this segment is very closely tied to the
performance of the mountain segment, and it generally experiences the same seasonal
trends and risks.
Destination guests accounted for 70%, 71%, and 67% of all lodging revenue for the 2015,
2014, and 2013 fiscal years respectively.32 The segment primarily generates revenue from
its owned hotel rooms, managed condominiums, and dining. Operating expenses are
largely dominated by labor.
30
Vail Resorts, Inc. (2015) Form 10-K 2015
31
Vail Resorts, Inc. (2015) Form 10-K 2015
32
Vail Resorts, Inc. (2015) Form 10-K 2015
Mountain Operating Expense (thousands) 2015 2014 2013 Avg % of Total
Labor and Labor-related 291,582$ 266,411$ 243,208$ 37.6%
Retail cost of sales 87,817 88,291 88,500 12.4%
Resort related fees 59,685 49,168 42,020 7.1%
General and admin. 143,772 125,678 109,181 17.8%
Other 194,291 183,237 156,797 25.1%
Total 777,147$ 712,785$ 639,706$
Contractual Obligations (thousands) Total 2016 2-3 years 4-5 years More than 5 years
Long-term Debt (Outstanding Principal) 816,830$ 10,154$ 26,751$ 402,596$ 377,329$
Fixed Rate Interest 2,246 269 497 438 1,042
Canyons Obligation 1,742,201 26,109 53,796 55,969 1,606,327
Operating Leases and Service Cotracts 302,294 43,738 61,661 48,145 148,750
Purchase Obligations and Other 356,973 277,099 66,492 5,118 8,264
Total Contractual Cash Obligations 3,220,544$ 357,369$ 209,197$ 512,266$ 2,141,712$
12
(2015 10-K)
(2015 10-K)
Real Estate (3% of FY 2015 Revenue)
The company’s real estate segment develops and owns real estate in or near its resorts. Vail
Resorts holds real property at mountain resorts in Colorado. The operations take place
through Vail Resorts Development Company, which includes oversight, planning,
infrastructure improvement, development, marketing, and sale and lease of property
holdings.33 This adds value to the firm as it creates additional resort lodging venues,
expands property management, and another opportunity to create recurring revenue.
The mix of real estate sold and timing for the closing of deals drive revenue for this
segment.34 In 2015, a large portion of cost of sales, $32.1M, was attributed to the closing of
14 condominiums at Oak Ski Hill Place in Breckenridge, 5 condominiums at the Ritz Carlton
in Vail Mountain, and a land development parcel in Vail Mountain. Revenue of $39.3M was
realized from these sales.35 The high costs of Vail’s real estate projects stem from the
significant cost of developing on a mountain resort, including the high-end features and
amenities. Other expenses for this segment primarily include general and administrative
costs, carry and overhead costs, allocated corporate costs, and marketing expenses.
33
Vail Resorts, Inc. (2015) Form 10-K 2015
34
Vail Resorts, Inc. (2015) Form 10-K 2015
35
Vail Resorts, Inc. (2015) Form 10-K 2015
Lodging Net Revenue (thousands) 2015 2014 2013 Avg % of Total
Owned hotel rooms 57,916$ 53,199$ 48,449$ 23.4%
Managed condiminiukm rooms 58,936 55,214 44,486 23.3%
Dinning 46,209 44,023 33,809 18.2%
Transportation 23,079 22,006 19,602 9.5%
Golf 16,340 15,410 15,237 6.9%
Other 41,760 42,204 38,562 18.0%
Total 244,240$ 234,070$ 202,158$
13
(2015 10-K)
Product Analysis
Vail Resort’s primary service is to provide access to skiing and snowboarding. This is the
main driver for revenue in the mountain segment and ultimately the entire company. Most
revenue generators of the mountain segment ultimately rely upon and are driven by lift
ticket sales. For example, equipment rentals do not raise demand for lift tickets, tickets
directly affect demand for rentals.
Lift Tickets
The staple of the ski resort industry, and for Vail Resorts, is lift tickets. They are the
primary revenue driver, and a necessity to again access to a resort. Lift tickets are divided
into two segments: higher priced lift tickets and discounted season passes. Destination
guests usually purchase the higher priced lift tickets. Lift tickets differ in price from resort
to resort and are offered at a discount if bought in packages or in advance. Vail Mountain
Resort in Colorado currently sells day lift tickets for $120.36 Season passes are generally
marketed towards in-state guests, although destination guests purchase them as well.
In the fiscal years 2015, 2014, and 2013, 40%, 40%, and 38%
of all lift ticket revenue respectively was derived from season
passes.37 Vail’s Epic Pass gives unlimited access to all eleven of
its resorts in the United States, Perisher Resort in Australia,
and ten other resorts worldwide. It features discounted
pricing, with a $789 charge for adults.38 This is an increase
from the $729 price in 2014. There are also value oriented Epic
passes available for locals and college students, even though
they have some restrictions, such as limited access to some
resorts. For all passes, the company offers discounted pricing
for Juniors (5-12) and Seniors (65+). It is the best selling season pass in the industry,
bolstered by its competitive advantage of allowing access to Vail’s world-class resorts.39 In
36
Vail.com. Retrieved October 15, 2015
37
Vail Resorts, Inc. (2015) Form 10-K 2015
38
The Passes. (n.d.). Retrieved October 6, 2015, from http://www.snow.com/epic-pass/passes.aspx
39
Vail Resorts, Inc. (2015) Investor Presentation 2015
Real Estate Segment (thousands) 2015 2014 2013
Total Real Estate net revenue 41,342$ 48,786$ 42,309$
Real Estate operating expense:
Cost of sales (including sales comissions) 34,765 41,274 35,503
Other 13,643 14,552 22,587
Total Real Estate operating expense 48,408 55,826 58,090
Gain on sale of real property 151 - 6,675
Real Estate reported EBITDA (6,915)$ ($7,040) ($9,106)
(Investor Presentation 2015)
14
2015, over 400,000 Epic Passes were sold for $200M in sales to consumers in all 50 states
and 83 countries.40 Destination guests are the fastest growing segment of Epic Pass
holders, accounting for 40% of total sales last year.41 This number is expected to grow with
the addition of the largest ski resort in Australia. Vail believes this will increase visits to its
North American resorts. The first full selling season in FY16 with the Park City/Canyons
resort combination is also expected to drive sales.
Intrawest, Boyne Resorts, and Powdr, the United States’ largest three resort holding
companies behind Vail resorts, have partnered to offer a product to challenge the Epic Pass.
The Max Pass offers access to 22 ski areas in Canada and the United States and it is priced
at $699 for adults.42 This pass will be offered for the first time during the 2015/2016
season and is the first of its kind to contest the Epic Pass.
Through September 20, 2015, pre-season pass sales for the 2015/2016 season have
increased by 16% in units and 22% in sales compared to the previous year ended
September 21, 2014, not including sales at Perisher.43 Hence, the Max Pass has not yet
posed a legitimate threat to Vail’s Epic Pass sales.
Growth Strategy
Vail Resorts prides itself as the “volume and quality leader” in the industry, with four out of
the top five most visited resorts in the United States.44 This is validated by the firm’s
market share. Operating just eleven resorts in the United States and one in Australia, the
company holds a majority 33.6% of the U.S. ski and snowboard resort market share by
revenue, making Vail Resorts the clear volume leader.45 The company is in an enviable
position to achieve its growth strategies, which include organic and inorganic growth.
Overall, Vail’s growth strategies are consistent with this research.
Vail Resorts listed the following strategies for “sustainable growth” during its 2015
Investors Conference Presentation.46
 High-end destination guest acquisition
 Sophisticated pricing strategy drives volume and yield
o Season pass provides value with early commitment
o Premium pricing for non-pass holders
 Acquisitions to enhance pass network and create scale
40
Vail Resorts, Inc. (2015) Investor Presentation 2015
41
Vail Resorts, Inc. (2015) Investor Presentation 2015
42
Barber, M. (n.d.). Competitors Take Aim at Vail Resorts With New 22-Ski Area M.A.X. Season Pass. Retrieved
October 6, 2015
43
Vail Resorts, Inc. (2015) Form 10-K 2015
44
Vail Resorts, Inc. (2015) Corporate Strategies. Retrieved from vailresorts.com
45
Alvarez, A. (2014, December). Ski & Snowboard Resorts in the US: Market Research Report. Retrieved September
28, 2015
46
Vail Resorts, Inc. (2015) Investor Presentation 2015
15
 Leverage fixed cost base to drive margin and cash flow
 Data-driven targeted marketing
 Reinvestment in facility improvements
High-end Destination Guests
The company strives to appeal to a customer base that seeks high end travel. The company
is currently succeeding in this regard, as the average income for all guests is $170,000, and
destination guests have an average income of $295,000.4748
Pricing Strategy and Acquisitions
Vail has successfully implemented its growth strategy for season pass and lift ticket pricing
in the past. The Epic Pass offers value, which is seen in its high volume of sales to
potentially more price sensitive guests, as it accounted for approximately 40% of lift
revenue during the 2014/2015 season.49 Traditional lift tickets are more geared towards
premium pricing. The company has gradually increased the “early bird” price of its Epic
Pass from $749 during the 2014/2015 season to $789 for the 2015/2016 season. Through
September 20, 2015, this price change has resulted in growth for Vail Resorts, as pre-
season pass sales for the 2015/2016 season have increased 16% in units and 22% in sales
over last year. During the 2014/2015 season, lift revenue, excluding season passes,
increased by 18.2%, driven by an increase in prices and the addition of Park City, Canyons,
and Perisher resorts.50
Leverage Fixed Cost Base
Vail’s growth strategy to leverage its fixed cost base to drive margin and cash flow is a
trend the company has followed in the past and is likely to maintain in the future. In May
2015, Vail Resorts borrowed $185M under the revolver portion of their Credit Agreement
to fund the acquisition of Perisher Resort.51 This was exercised to fund the acquisition of
Perisher resort and capital expenditures to improve guest experience. Through debt
financing, the company expands and invests in its business, which by nature has a high
fixed cost structure. This strategy should remain beneficial to the company in the future, as
it strives to invest and expand without decreasing margin.
Data-driven Targeted Marketing
Marketing for Vail’s passes is oriented around data analytics and personalized marketing to
existing and prospective guests. The company promotes resorts and passes through
customer relationships via email, direct mail, promotional programs, TV, print, and digital
marketing.
47
Vail Resorts, Inc. (2015) Investor Presentation 2015
48
Vail Resorts, Inc. (2015) Corporate Strategies. Retrieved from vailresorts.com
49
Vail Resorts, Inc. (2015) Form 10-K 2015
50
Vail Resorts, Inc. (2015) Form 10-K 2015
51
Vail Resorts, Inc. (2015) Form 10-K 2015
16
Most effort is positioned to drive
traffic to Vail’s website. As can be
seen in the graph to the right, Vail
Resort’s has substantially
improved its ability to obtain
customer’s address data. The email
open rate of past or potential
customers has improved as well,
which exceeds the top quartile of
the industry.52 Vail’s goal to be a high growth company can be
seen in its efforts to market and improve its products, with the
focus being lift tickets.
Reinvestment in Guest Experience
The company has committed itself to improving the “guest experience” by investing in
resort improvements and acquisitions. The company is currently in the process of investing
$110 to $115 million in resort improvements for the 2015-2016 season, which brings its
trailing five-year investment total to over $500 million.53
Vail’s capital investments include its Epic Discovery Program, which promotes summer
tourism at Vail Mountain, Breckenridge, and Heavenly resorts. Epic Discovery offers
summer activities such as mountain coasters, tubing, zip lines, and canopy tours. The
company has invested $14M in this project to date and expects to invest $65-70M through
CY18.54 Vail estimates a $15M incremental EBITDA benefit from the program at each resort
during maturity, which will reduce the risk of seasonality by providing a buffer to poor
winters.55
Risks
Vail’s primary unique risk is the firm’s ability to carry out successful and profitable
acquisitions. The company actively pursues acquisitions to add value to the firm and brand.
Vail lists the following as substantial risks that result from acquiring a resort.56
 Evaluation of the synergies and/or long-term benefits of an acquired business
 Inability to integrate acquired businesses into operations as planned
 Diversion of management’s attention
 Potential increased debt leverage
 Litigation arising from acquisition activity
52
Vail Resorts, Inc. (2015) Investor Presentation 2015
53
Vail Resorts Commits $110 Million in Resort Improvements for 2015-16, Including Creating the Largest Ski Resort
in the U.S. at Park City. (2015, August 25). Retrieved November 19, 2015
54
Vail Resorts, Inc. (2015) Investor Presentation 2015
55
Vail Resorts, Inc. (2015) Investor Presentation 2015
56
Vail Resorts, Inc. (2015) Form 10-K 2015
(Investor Presentation 2015)
(Investor Presentation 2015)
17
 Potential goodwill or other intangible asset impairment
Vail Resorts acquired Canyons Resort in March 2013 and bought Park City Mountain Resort
in September 2014. Vail Resorts signed a 50-year lease with six 50-year renewable options
for Canyons Resort, including annual payments of $25 million. The lease payment will
increase each year based upon the CPI index less 1%, with a base of 2%.57 Thus, with
increasing lease payments, the company would struggle to meet lease payments if it does
not increase its cash flow from operations year over year. Also, the lease requires Vail
Resorts to pay the previous operator, Talisker, 42% of the amount which exceeds EBITDA
by $35 million at these two resorts. The $35 million will increase annually based upon the
CPI index minus a 10% adjustment for any capital improvements or investments made by
Vail.58 Thus, Vail’s inability to capitalize on synergies from these or future acquisitions is a
real risk facing the firm; however, Vail’s historical success of integrating resorts into its
existing capital structure has not posed a legitimate threat in the past.
Vail Resorts must generate consistent operating results at these two resorts to maintain
strict lease terms; however, this risk is mitigated by the firms potential cash flow
generation from its various other resorts.
Conclusion
Vail Resorts has viable growth strategies which have been successful in the recent past and
are currently reaping benefits for the company. I expect these strategies to be successful in
the future if Vail continues to make smart and strategic acquisitions. The Epic Discovery
Program seems like a rational investment which will reduce the risk of the company’s
seasonality.
Corporate Employees
Management Team
Although Vail’s management has seen many changes in recent years, including two in 2015,
the majority of its positions have been filled with internal hires. For example, Patricia
Campbell was recently appointed President of the Mountain Division, but she has worked
as a Chief Operating Officer at two of Vail’s resorts from 2007-2013, and she served as a
Senior Vice President before being appointed as a President. James C. Odonell, Senior Vice
President of Lodging and Real Estate, has held numerous positions with the company since
2002. Seven out of ten of Vail’s current executives have held at least one other position
with the firm before being appointed as an executive.
57
Vail Resorts, Inc. (2015) Form 10-K 2015
58
Vail Resorts, Inc. (2015) Form 10-K 2015
18
Vail Resorts maintains an extremely low ISS
Governance Quickscore. This score ranks a firm’s
governance in regards to its risk. A score of 1
represents extremely low governance risk, while a
score of 10 represents very high governance risk. The
score is determined through analysis over four pillars:
Audit Risk and Oversight, Shareholder Rights, Board
Structure, and Compensation/Remuneration. Vail currently has a score of 1/10, indicating
minimal governance risk.59
Chairman of the Board and CEO Robert Katz worked as the Lead Director from June 2003
to July of 2006 when he was appointed as Chief Executive Officer. He became Chairman of
the Board in March 2009. He also has served on the board of directors since 1996, and has
been involved with Vail since 1991.60 Katz has experience in private equity, as he
associated with Apollo Management L.P. since its founding in 1990, becoming a senior
partner prior to being appointed as CEO with Vail.61 He currently holds 1,227,795 shares of
common stock, which reflects largest portion of insider stock and 3.3% of its class.62
Mr. Katz, an avid skier, has made a substantial impact on Vail’s operations since being
appointed CEO. He has lead the introduction of the Epic Pass and spearheaded Vail’s
acquisition and capital investment strategy. Dylan Machan writes for Barron’s, “Katz is
transforming the business of skiing”.63
This research provides positive support for Vail’s management. Although the company has
appointed many of its executives in recent years, CEO Robert Katz has demonstrated
effective and innovative leadership, and management’s risk ranks very low.
59
ISS Governance. ISS Governance Quickscore Summary 28 September 2015. Retrieved 5 November 2015
60
Vailresorts.com, Senior Executives. Retrieved from vailresorts.com
61
Vail Resorts, Inc. (2015) Form 10-K 2015
62
Vail Resorts, Inc. (2015) Form 10-K 2015
63
Machan, D. (2014, November 15). Vail Resorts' CEO: Transforming the Business of Skiing
Year Appointed Position
Robert A. Katz 2006 Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Patricia A. Campbell 2015 President, Mountain Division
Michael Z. Barkin 2013 Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer
Mark R. Gasta 2011 Executive Vice President, Chief People Officer
Christopher E. Jarnot 2008 Executive Vice President , Chief Operating Officer
Kirsten A. Lynch 2011 Executive Vice President, Chief Marketing Officer
David T. Shapiro 2015 Executive Vice President, General Counsel and Secretary
Robert N. Urwiler 2006 Executive Vice President, Chief Information Officer
James C. O'Donnell 2014 Senior Vice President, Lodging and Real Estate
Mark L. Schoppet 2010 Senior Vice President, Controller and Chief Accounting Officer
Executives
Vail Resorts
1/10
ISS Governance QuickScore Pillars
Board Structure 1
Shareholder Rights 2
Compensation 1
Audit Risk and Oversight 1
19
Management Compensation
Vail’s executive compensation program is based on a pay-for-performance model, which
the company hopes will “reward our executive officers and senior management for
sustained, high-level performance over the short and long-term as demonstrated by
measurable, company-wide performance metrics and individual contributions that are
consistent with our overall growth strategy and achievement of goals”.64 This model is
beneficial for shareholders, because Vail’s executives are heavily incentivized to make sure
the company performs well.
The table below contains the compensation breakdown for Vail Resort’s three highest paid
executives: Robert A. Katz, Blaise T. Carrig and Michael Z. Barkin.
(2015 10-K)
The company’s executive compensation policy emphasizes “pay-for-performance” in hopes
of incentivizing management to generate value for shareholders and strive for excellent
results. Annual incentive awards are driven by the EBITDA for lodging and mountain
segments.65
A Compensation Committee is organized by Vail
Resorts to set executive compensation for each year.
The committee utilizes a third party consultant, Aon,
to analyze market data and peer group performance
to help determine the target pay level for Vail Resort’s
executives.
There are not
enough
publicly traded companies to create a pure
competitor set for Vail’s primary revenue
generator, its resort division. So, the company uses
a vast peer group of leisure, travel, gaming and
64
Vail Resorts, Inc. (2015) Form 10-K 2015
65
Vail Resorts, Inc. (2015) Form 10-K 2015
Fiscal Year Salary ($) Bonus ($) Stock Awards ($)
Option/Share
Appreciation
Right Awards ($)
Non-Equity
Incentive Plan
Compensation
($)
All Other
Compensation
($) Total ($)
Salary %
Change
since 2013
Total
Compensation
% Change from
2013
Robert A. Katz 2015 846,281 - 2,231,712 1,890,372 341,332 34,726 5,344,423 6.0% 9.7%
Chairman 2014 822,602 - 262,910 3,652,979 262,988 29,987 5,031,466
CEO 2013 798,553 - 255,228 3,529,457 255,249 33,563 4,872,050
Blaise T. Carrig 2015 427,784 - 231,935 626,957 207,046 17,593 1,511,315 5.7% 12.8%
Pres. - Mountain 2014 415,815 - 675,853 605,711 159,525 37,297 1,894,201
2013 404,889 - 146,593 608,480 162,572 17,612 1,340,146
-
Michael Z. Barkin 2015 382,187 - 187,852 462,029 157,014 19,812 1,208,894 33.3% 3.6%
Exec. VP 2014 334,046 - 103,552 346,673 106,479 7,943 898,693
CFO 2013 286,769 - 565,422 229,457 82,315 3,313 1,167,276
Summary Compensation Table - Highest Paid Executives
20
hospitality companies.66 In addition to market and peer group data, the Compensation
Committee takes into account individual performance and the ability to meet firm wide
goals.67 Overall, 85% and 70% of the CEO’s and executive employee’s compensation
respectively is determined by variable components, such as operating performance and/or
stock price.
Summary of Ownership
Vail Resorts, founded in 1962, filed for its initial public offering on February 7, 1997. The
company issued 5 million shares of common stock at a price of $22.00 per share. The
company utilized $86.6 million in proceeds from the offering to redeem senior
subordinated notes due in 2004. The remainder of proceeds were used for general
corporate purposes.68
Vail’s ownership largely lies outside of inside ownership. Currently, 6% of shares are held
by company insiders, with CEO Robert Katz holding 3% of shares.69
Institutions and mutual fund owners hold 94% of shares, with BAMCO Inc. owning 5,376,
563 shares, or 14.77%.70 During the last quarter, institutional investors sold a net of
3,387,300 shares and insiders sold 23, 726. Listed below are Vail Resort’s top shareholders.
(Yahoo Finance)
Management Key Goals and Analysis
20137172
Goals
66
Vail Resorts, Inc. (2015) Form 10-K 2015
67
Vail Resorts, Inc. (2015) Form 10-K 2015
68
Vail Resorts, Inc. (1997) Form 10-K 1997
69
Yahoo Finance. Retrieved 5 November 2015
70
Yahoo Finance. Retrieved 5 November 2015
71
Vail Resorts, Inc. (2013) Form 10-K 2013
72
Vail Resorts, Inc. (2013) Earnings Report 2013
Shares % O/S Value Reported
BAMCO Inc. 2,901,090 14.77% 587,120,663$ 30-Jun-15
T. Rowe Price Associates 2,901,090 7.97% 316,799,019$ 30-Jun-15
Southeastern Asset Management Inc. 2,387,058 6.56% 260,666,726$ 30-Jun-15
The Vanguard Group, Inc. 2,371,560 6.52% 258,974,344$ 30-Jun-15
FMR, LLC 1,787,951 4.91% 195,244,243$ 30-Jun-15
Jennison Associates LLC 1,408,261 3.87% 153,782,096$ 30-Jun-15
Columbia Wagner Asset Management 1,194,862 3.28% 130,478,926$ 30-Jun-15
BlackRock Institutional Trust 908,135 2.50% 99,168,339$ 30-Jun-15
BlackRock Fund Advisors 901,002 2.48% 98,389,415$ 30-Jun-15
Waddell & Reed Financial Inc. 886,200 2.43% 96,773,037$ 30-Jun-15
Major Institutional Shareholders
21
 Invest approximately $130 to $140 million of CAPEX to maintain high quality
standards of resorts and provide discretionary improvements
 Expect net income to be in a range of $37.0 million to $55.0 million for calendar year
2014
 Improve season pass sales by integrating Canyon’s, Afton Alps and Mount Brighton
into pass products, marketing efforts and operations
 Build and open more summer activities as part of the Epic Discovery program
20147374
Achievements/Shortfalls
 Realized 20.1% increase in season pass revenue
 Utilized CAPEX to construct new high-speed lifts and Vail and Breckenridge
 Completed zip lines for Epic Discovery during Fiscal 2014
 Missed net income expectations by $8.5 million
Goals
 Invest approximately $85 to $95 million for resort capital expenditures in calendar
year 2015
 Continue to grow season pass sales, which represent the “best value in the
industry,” and create growth from acquisition of Australian resort, Perisher
 Expect net income to be in a range of $75.7 million to $100.5 million for Fiscal 2014
 Continue to develop the Epic Discovery program through capital investment
20157576
Achievements/Shortfalls
 Beat net income expectations, $114.8 million for fiscal 2015
 Continued to drive growth and loyalty through season pass revenue, increasing
20.9% from the previous year
 Increased Epic Australia Pass 14% over sales of the Perisher Freedom Pass in 2014
 Increased total skier visits by 6.5%, driven by the addition of Park City and strong
Colorado turnout
Goals
 Expect to spend between $110 and $115 million in resort CAPEX during the 2015
calendar year
 Plan to finish $50 million transformation plan to connect Park City and Canyons,
which will create the largest ski resort in the United States
 Target efforts to move destination guests to season pass products, bolstered by
expanded presence in Australia and Utah
 Expect net income to be between $118 and $144 million in Fiscal 2016
73
Vail Resorts, Inc. (2014) Form 10-K 2014
74
Vail Resorts, Inc. (2014) Earnings Report 2014
75
Vail Resorts, Inc. (2013) Form 10-K 2015
76
Vail Resorts, Inc. (2015) Earnings Report 2015
22
 Construct alpine coaster and canopy tour at Vail and Heavenly resorts as part of the
Epic Discovery program, which is expected to be operational in fiscal 2016
 Expect Perisher to contribute to operational results during first and fourth quarters,
which is the off-season for U.S. resorts
Vail Resorts has significantly expanded its resort offering during the last few years by
acquiring Park City, Canyons, and Perisher resorts. Overall, the company’s “say-do” ratio
has been very good over the past three years, bolstered by the company’s successful
acquisition of these resorts, capital investment, and efforts to create the Epic Discovery
program.
The company fell short of one of its major goals for 2014, as it missed its net income
estimate range by $8.5 million. This does not seem to be a cause for operational concern,
because it was a result of near record snowfall in the Tahoe region. Net income was also
lowered by a loss on the extinguishment of debt of $10.8 million.77
Employee Overview
Vail Resorts currently employs approximately 5,200 year-round employees, and during the
peak of the mountain segment operating season, the company employs approximately
21,300 seasonal employees. Also, Vail Resorts employees approximately 300 year-round
and 100 seasonal employees for the owners of managed hotel properties. None of Vail’s
workers are unionized.78
Vail Resorts has increased its number of year-round employees by 900 since 2012 and
expanded its season workforce by 5,100.79 This is driven by Vail’s recent acquisitions.
The company has various types of employees, ranging from year-round to seasonal and
holiday positions. Employees are hired in various capacities, ranging from ski instructors to
travel coordinators and store managers. Vail Resorts considers relations with employees to
be “good”.80
The commencement of Vail’s Epic Discovery program will promote summer tourism at
Breckenridge, Vail Mountain, and Heavenly resorts, and Vail Resorts will necessarily begin
to hire more seasonal employees in the coming years to support activities such as canopy
tours, tubing, zip lines, and mountain coasters.81
On December 2, 2015, Vail Resorts announced a $30 million commitment to new employee
housing at its mountain resorts.82 This is significant, because it offers affordable housing to
seasonal and year-round employees and the ability to work for the company long-term.
77
Vail Resorts, Inc. (2014) Earnings Report 2014
78
Vail Resorts, Inc. (2015) Form 10-K 2015
79
Vail Resorts, Inc. (2015) Form 10-K 2012
80
Vail Resorts, Inc. (2015) Form 10-K 2015
81
Vail Resorts, Inc. (2015) Investor Presentation 2015
82
Vail Corporate (Vailresorts.com). Retrieved December 5, 2015
23
Generally, Vail’s resorts reside in areas with high property value, hence employees are
often forced to live far away from the resorts.
Employee Satisfaction and Benefits
Glassdoor holds a database of company reviews, CEO approval ratings, salary reports,
benefits reviews, and other metrics. Feedback from 390 employees has assigned Vail
Resorts a rating of three out of five stars. Popular positives mentioned in regards to
working for the company include the employee benefits, such as a free ski pass and a great
work-life balance. Year round full-time employees enjoy the culture and employee
development offered by the company. The primary complaints of Vail’s employees are low
pay and the lack of cost of living based salary adjustments.
Vail Resorts seems to be making an effort to remedy employee’s dissatisfaction for salary,
particularly with entry-level jobs. The company announced in June of 2015 that it will raise
the minimum wage for entry-level jobs to $10 per hour. CEO Robert Katz wrote the
following in a letter to employees, “We are taking this step because it is incumbent on us to
do the right thing for our employees as well as remain competitive as an employer”.83
All of the following benefits are available to year round full-time employees. Seasonal full-
time employees only receive the benefits colored blue.
 Medical, dental, and vision insurance
 Employee assistance program: free counselling
 401(k) with 50% match of the first 6% employees contribute
 Free season pass
 Discounted rates for auto, homeowners, and pet insurance, critical illness and
accident plans, and legal plans
 Additional perks: adoption assistance, child care, lodging and retail discounts, ski
and snowboard privileges, healthy eating and tobacco cessation programs, and
tuition discounts
 Paid time off and sick time
 Flexible spending healthcare account
 Life and disability insurance
The benefits listed below are offered to seasonal part-time and holiday help employees.
 401(k) with 50% match of the first 6% employees contribute
 Employee assistance program: free counselling
 Discounted rates for auto, homeowners, and pet insurance
 Lift ticket coupons and lesson discounts
 Additional perks: adoption assistance, child care, lodging and retail discounts, ski
and snowboard privileges, healthy eating and tobacco cessation programs, and
tuition discounts
83
Hickey, C. (2015, June 19). Vail Resorts to boost starting minimum wage to $10 an hour
24
Competitive Advantages
Epic Pass
The culmination of Vail’s advantages is demonstrated by the Epic Pass, which gives
consumers season long access to Vail’s resorts and ten other resorts worldwide. This
differentiator does not have not a comparable program in the industry and is a great buffer
to poor snow seasons, because Vail Resorts receives 40% of lift ticket revenue from the
Epic Pass before each season starts.84
Market Leader
Vail Resorts has the unique positon of being a market leader and commander of
acquisitions, which puts the company in a position to obtain the most lucrative
properties.85 Intrawest Corporation is Vail’s closest competitor and maintains only 8.5% of
market share by revenue.86
High Income Guests
The company’s high income customers are a significant advantage, because a high-end
demographic can provide future resiliency to economic fluctuations and the opportunity
for premium pricing, because these consumers are more likely to continue to spend during
average changes in consumer spending habits because of their large income. Many of Vail’s
customers fall in this category, as destination guests made up 59% of resort visits during
the 2014/2015 season.
Premium Pricing
Vail resorts offers 8 of the top 20 most expensive lift tickets in America, with Vail and
Beaver Creek tying for the most expensive during the 2014/2015 season at $145 for a day
pass.87 Premium pricing allows Vail to increase revenue through the acquisition of
84
Vail Resorts, Inc. (2015) Form 10-K 2015
85
Vail Resorts: Promising Shareholders Higher Returns. (2015, April 13). Retrieved October 6, 2015
86
Alvarez, A. (2014, December 1). Ski & Snowboard Resorts in the US: Market Research Report. Retrieved
September 28, 2015
87
Leonard, B. (2015, February 3). The Most Expensive Lift Tickets in America. Retrieved December 14, 2015
Epic Pass
Market Leader High Income
Guests
Premium
Pricing
Facility
Improvements
25
destination guests and maintain the resort’s branding as being premium destinations for
high income customers.
Facility Improvements
Clearly, Vail is committed to upgrading its business and hopes to do so in the future barring
a significant economic downturn, prolonged poor precipitation seasons, or another realized
risk. The company improves guest experience, increases snowmaking efficiency, and offers
new revenue generators such as the Epic Discovery program through facility investment.
With $110 million in planned expenditures for facility improvements in FY16, Vail looks to
continue to capitalize on this differentiator.
Financial and Ratio Analysis
(All figures in millions of the reported currency, except ratios and % of total values)
Income Statement
Vail Resorts is in a mature stage of its business cycle, but the company is experiencing
increasing growth, driven by recent acquisitions and increased lift ticket sales. With
revenue increasing 11% during the last two fiscal years and gross margin increasing from
20.5% in FY13 to 24.8% in FY15, it is clear that Vail’s growth is accommodated by
increased efficiency from its acquisitions. Financial statements are listed on the next page.
26
(S&P Capital IQ)
(S&P Capital IQ)
Income Statement
For the Fiscal Period Ending 12 months
Jul-31-2013
12 months
Jul-31-2014
12 months
Jul-31-2015
Currency USD USD USD
Revenue 1,120.8 1,254.6 1,399.9
Other Revenue - - -
Total Revenue 1,120.8 1,254.6 1,399.9
Cost Of Goods Sold 891.1 984.4 1,052.9
Gross Profit 229.7 270.3 347.0
Depreciation & Amort. 132.7 140.6 149.1
Other Operating Exp., Total 132.7 140.6 149.1
Operating Income 97.0 129.7 197.9
Interest Expense (39.0) (64.0) (51.2)
Interest and Invest. Income 0.4 0.4 0.2
Net Interest Exp. (38.6) (63.6) (51.0)
Income/(Loss) from Affiliates 0.9 1.3 0.8
EBT Excl. Unusual Items 59.3 67.3 147.7
Merger & Related Restruct. Charges (5.5) (9.8) (5.5)
Gain (Loss) On Sale Of Assets 5.5 (1.2) (1.9)
Legal Settlements - - 16.4
Other Unusual Items - (12.2) (7.4)
EBT Incl. Unusual Items 59.2 44.1 149.3
Income Tax Expense 21.6 15.9 34.7
Earnings from Cont. Ops. 37.6 28.2 114.6
Net Income to Company 37.6 28.2 114.6
Minority Int. in Earnings 0.1 0.3 0.1
Net Income 37.7 28.5 114.8
Key Financial Stats
For the Fiscal Period Ending 12 months
Jul-31-2013A
12 months
Jul-31-2014A
12 months
Jul-31-2015A
Currency USD USD USD
Total Revenue 1,120.8 1,254.6 1,399.9
Growth Over Prior Year 9.4% 11.9% 11.6%
Gross Profit 229.7 270.3 347.0
Margin % 20.5% 21.5% 24.8%
EBITDA 229.7 270.3 347.0
Margin % 20.5% 21.5% 24.8%
EBIT 97.0 129.7 197.9
Margin % 8.7% 10.3% 14.1%
Earnings from Cont. Ops. 37.6 28.2 114.6
Margin % 3.4% 2.2% 8.2%
Net Income 37.7 28.5 114.8
Margin % 3.4% 2.3% 8.2%
27
Balance Sheet
Vail Resort’s decrease in cash from $138.6M at the end of FY13 to $35.5M at the end of
FY15 is explained by Vail’s use of cash for facility improvements, such as the acquisition of
Park City Mountain Resort, and the $50M investment to connect Park City and Canyons
resorts in 2015. As of March 13, 2015, Vail Resorts paid off all debt used to acquire Park
City Mountain Resort for $182.5M in September 2015.88
(S&P Capital IQ)
88
Gorrell, M. (2015, March 13). Vail pays off Park City Mountain debt, reports earnings bump. Retrieved December
16, 2015
Balance Sheet
Balance Sheet as of:
Jul-31-2013 Jul-31-2014 Jul-31-2015
Currency USD USD USD
ASSETS
Cash And Equivalents 138.6 44.4 35.5
Total Cash & ST Investments 138.6 44.4 35.5
Accounts Receivable 79.0 96.0 114.0
Total Receivables 79.0 96.0 114.0
Inventory 68.3 67.2 73.5
Prepaid Exp. 0.4 0.2 0.3
Deferred Tax Assets, Curr. 25.2 29.2 28.0
Restricted Cash 12.6 13.2 13.0
Other Current Assets 19.3 24.9 23.9
Total Current Assets 343.5 275.0 288.1
Gross Property, Plant & Equipment 2,325.1 2,411.4 2,762.1
Accumulated Depreciation (1,155.8) (1,263.4) (1,375.8)
Net Property, Plant & Equipment 1,169.3 1,148.0 1,386.3
Long-term Investments 7.1 7.5 7.4
Goodw ill 381.7 378.1 500.4
Other Intangibles 121.3 117.5 144.1
Loans Receivable Long-Term - - -
Deferred Charges, LT 90.2 89.8 33.4
Other Long-Term Assets 195.2 157.9 129.8
Total Assets 2,308.3 2,173.8 2,489.6
LIABILITIES
Accounts Payable 61.4 71.8 62.1
Accrued Exp. 100.1 91.6 103.9
Curr. Port. of LT Debt 1.0 1.0 10.2
Curr. Income Taxes Payable 42.8 34.0 57.2
Unearned Revenue, Current 93.8 110.6 145.9
Other Current Liabilities 14.3 15.3 19.3
Total Current Liabilities 313.3 324.2 398.6
Long-Term Debt 795.9 625.6 806.7
Unearned Revenue, Non-Current 131.8 128.8 126.1
Def. Tax Liability, Non-Curr. 118.3 128.6 147.8
Other Non-Current Liabilities 111.1 131.9 129.8
Total Liabilities 1,470.4 1,339.0 1,609.0
Common Stock 0.4 0.4 0.4
Additional Paid In Capital 598.7 612.3 623.5
Retained Earnings 418.0 401.5 440.7
Treasury Stock (193.2) (193.2) (193.2)
Comprehensive Inc. and Other (0.1) (0.2) (4.9)
Total Common Equity 823.9 820.8 866.6
Minority Interest 14.0 14.0 14.0
Total Equity 837.9 834.8 880.6
Total Liabilities And Equity 2,308.3 2,173.8 2,489.6
28
Capital Structure
In May 2015, Vail Resorts borrowed $185M under the revolver portion of its Credit
Agreement to fund the acquisition of Perisher Resort.89 This accounts for the company’s
substantial increase in total debt from FY14 to the end of FY15. As of July 31, 2015, Vail had
minimum outstanding lease payments of the $292.0M, which was driven by Vail’s 50-year
lease signed for Canyons Resort in May 2013.
(S&P Capital IQ)
89
Vail Resorts, Inc. (2015) Form 10-K 2015
Capital Structure Data
For the Fiscal Period Ending
Currency USD USD USD
Units Millions % of Total Millions % of Total Millions % of Total
Total Debt 796.9 48.7% 626.6 42.9% 816.8 48.1%
Total Common Equity 823.9 50.4% 820.8 56.2% 866.6 51.1%
Total Minority Interest 14.0 0.9% 14.0 1.0% 14.0 0.8%
Total Capital 1,634.8 100.0% 1,461.4 100.0% 1,697.4 100.0%
Debt Summary Data
For the Fiscal Period Ending
Currency USD USD USD
Units Millions % of Total Millions % of Total Millions % of Total
Total Revolving Credit 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 185.0 22.6%
Total Term Loans - - - - 250.0 30.6%
Total Senior Bonds and Notes 99.2 12.4% 99.0 15.8% 57.5 7.0%
Total Subordinated Bonds and Notes 390.0 48.9% 215.0 34.3% 0 0.0%
Total Capital Leases 307.7 38.6% 312.7 49.9% 324.4 39.7%
Total Principal Due 796.9 100.0% 626.6 100.0% 816.8 100.0%
12 months Jul-31-2013 12 months Jul-31-2014 12 months Jul-31-2015
12 months Jul-31-2013 12 months Jul-31-2014 12 months Jul-31-2015
29
Ratios
All of Vail’s profitability ratios reflect positive growth, as the company has improved its
ROA and ROE following acquisitions, lift ticket sales increases, and investment in facility
improvements. Along with these trends, Vail Resorts margins have increased for similar
reasons. The company’s capital structure has remained fairly constant during the last three
years. Vails Resort’s quick ratio has decreased from 0.7x in FY13 to 0.4x in FY15. While this
may seem alarming, I expect the company’s liquidity to replenish, because substantial cash
was used to pay off the acquisition of Park City Mountain Resort, and the company’s
growing margins and net income will help replenish the firm’s cash supply.
(S&P Capital IQ)
Ratios
For the Fiscal Period Ending 12 months
Jul-31-2013
12 months
Jul-31-2014
12 months
Jul-31-2015
Profitability
Return on Assets % 2.9% 3.6% 5.3%
Return on Capital % 4.1% 5.2% 7.8%
Return on Equity % 4.5% 3.4% 13.4%
Return on Common Equity % 4.6% 3.5% 13.6%
Margin Analysis
Gross Margin % 20.5% 21.5% 24.8%
EBITDA Margin % 20.5% 21.5% 24.8%
EBITA Margin % 8.9% 10.7% 14.5%
EBIT Margin % 8.7% 10.3% 14.1%
Net Income Margin % 3.4% 2.3% 8.2%
Net Income Avail. for Common Margin % 3.4% 2.3% 8.2%
Normalized Net Income Margin % 3.3% 3.4% 6.6%
Levered Free Cash Flow Margin % 11.8% 5.0% 12.6%
Unlevered Free Cash Flow Margin % 13.9% 8.2% 14.9%
Asset Turnover
Total Asset Turnover 0.5x 0.6x 0.6x
Fixed Asset Turnover 1.0x 1.1x 1.1x
Accounts Receivable Turnover 15.5x 14.3x 13.3x
Inventory Turnover 13.3x 14.5x 15.0x
Short Term Liquidity
Current Ratio 1.1x 0.8x 0.7x
Quick Ratio 0.7x 0.4x 0.4x
Cash from Ops. to Curr. Liab. 0.7x 0.8x 0.8x
Avg. Days Sales Out. 23.6 25.5 27.4
Avg. Days Inventory Out. 27.5 25.1 24.4
Avg. Days Payable Out. 24.1 24.7 23.1
Avg. Cash Conversion Cycle 27.0 25.9 28.7
Long Term Solvency
Total Debt/Equity 95.1% 75.1% 92.8%
Total Debt/Capital 48.7% 42.9% 48.1%
LT Debt/Equity 95.0% 74.9% 91.6%
LT Debt/Capital 48.7% 42.8% 47.5%
Total Liabilities/Total Assets 63.7% 61.6% 64.6%
30
Stock Price Analysis
(S&P Capital IQ)
The equity’s sharp spike in price on March 12, 2015 was a result of a positive earnings
report. Vail Resorts reported quarterly earnings of 3.1 EPS, which beat analyst expectations
by 34.14%.90 The company also increased its quarterly dividend by 50%, resulting in a
stock price increase of 9.72% to $93.27. Following the announcement of the company’s
acquisition of Perisher Resort in Australia for $135M, Vail Resort’s price increased from
$100.45 to $107.67 on April 8, 2015.91 The deal for Perisher was closed on June 30, 2015.
The company recently released a positive quarterly earnings report on December 7, 2015,
beating analyst’s EPS estimates by 6.75%, which resulted in a 2.93% price increase per
share.92 Vail Resorts is currently trading near its all-time high of $130.42 (12/15/15), and
the stock has appreciated near 44% YTD.93
90
Bloomberg. Retrieved December 14, 2015
91
Bloomberg. Retrieved December 14, 2015
92
Bloomberg. Retrieved December 14, 2015
93
Bloomberg. Retrieved December 14, 2015
31
(S&P Capital IQ)
During the last year, the Leisure and Travel Index has beaten the S&P 500, and Vail Resorts
has significantly outperformed both indexes.
Valuation
Vail Resorts is tricky to value, because while the company has shown solid organic growth,
driven by a 16.2% average increases in year-over-year lift ticket sales since 2013, a
primary driver for this growth has been acquisitions of other resorts.94 Hence, this
valuation reflects the benefits of recent acquisitions the company has made: Canyons
Resort in 2013, Park City Mountain Resort in 2014, and Perisher Resort in 2015. This
model does not take into account future acquisitions, because it is uncertain and not
feasible to predict, although it is likely that the company will continue to add value through
strategic acquisitions.
Three valuation techniques are utilized to determine the value of the firm: enterprise value
multiples, price-earnings multiples, and discounted cash flow analysis. The two multiples
valuations include the use of public comparable companies. The final projected stock price
of the company is calculated with equal weights in the projected cash flow, enterprise
value, and price-earnings calculations.
All historical financial statements are obtained from S&P Capital IQ.
Discounted Cash Flow Analysis
This method for valuing Vail Resorts consists of projecting future revenue and cash flows.
The key driver of this model is the growth of the mountain segment for Vail Resorts, which
has increased from contributing to 64.5% of Vail’s total revenue in 2011 to 78.9% in
94
Vail Resorts, Inc. (2015) Form 10-K 2015
32
2015.9596 Below is a model that shows the breakdown of Vail’s revenue segments, with a
specific emphasis on its mountain segment.
Lodging and real estate revenues have been relatively unpredictable during the last five
years and account for a small percentage of overall revenues, so average historical growth
rates are used to project future growth or decline in revenues. For similar reasons,
averages are used to project growth for ski school, dining, and retail/rental divisions of the
mountain segment. Management emphasizes that Vail could expect to see 22% year-over-
year lift ticket growth in FY 2016 in its recent earnings report, hence that metric is used to
project lift ticket growth.97 This growth is propelled by 3% to 6% price increases and the
addition of Park City, Canyons, and Perisher resorts.98 For future lift ticket growth, a high
but declining growth percentage is utilized, because it is unlikely that the company will
maintain such high growth rates unless the company closes a deal on another acquisition.
“Other” revenue for Vail Resorts includes sales from its new Epic Discovery Program, which
95
Vail Resorts, Inc. (2015) Form 10-K 2015
96
Vail Resorts, Inc. (2013) Form 10-K 2013
97
Vail Resorts, Inc. (2015) Earnings Report 2015
98
Vail Resorts, Inc. (2015) Investor Presentation 2015
Revenue by Segment
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Dollars in millions
Mountain
Lift Tickets 342.5 342.5 390.8 447.3 536.5 655 792 950 1,131 1,335
Ski School 83.8 84.3 95.3 109.4 126.2 140 155 172 191 212
Dining 68.1 68.4 81.2 89.9 101 115 131 149 170 194
Retail/rental 174.3 181.8 199.4 210.4 219.153 232 246 260 276 292
Other 83.5 89.7 100.9 106.6 121.2 139 167 197 226 260
Total 752.2 766.6 867.5 963.6 1,104.1 1,281.1 1,491.5 1,729.0 1,994.1 2,292.5
% of total 64.5% 74.8% 77.4% 76.8% 78.9% 80.7% 82.5% 84.0% 85.4% 86.7%
Lodging 214.7 210.6 211.0 242.3 254.6 266.1 278.2 290.9 304.1 317.9
% of total 18.4% 20.6% 18.8% 19.3% 18.2% 16.8% 15.4% 14.1% 13.0% 12.0%
Real Estate 200.2 47.2 42.3 48.8 41.3 39.9 38.6 37.3 36.0 34.8
% of total 17.2% 4.6% 3.8% 3.9% 3.0% 2.5% 2.1% 1.8% 1.5% 1.3%
Total 1167.0 1024.4 1120.8 1254.6 1399.9 1587.2 1808.3 2057.1 2334.2 2645.2
Mountain Segment Revenue
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Dollars in millions
Lift Ticket 342.5 342.5 390.8 447.3 536.5 655 792 950 1,131 1,335
% change (0.0%) 14.1% 14.4% 19.9% 22.0% 21.0% 20.0% 19.0% 18.0%
Ski School 83.8 84.3 95.3 109.4 126.2 140 155 172 191 212
% change 0.6% 13.0% 14.9% 15.3% 10.9% 10.9% 10.9% 10.9% 10.9%
Dinning 68.1 68.4 81.2 89.9 101 115 131 149 170 194
% change 0.5% 18.7% 10.7% 12.4% 13.9% 13.9% 13.9% 13.9% 13.9%
Retail/Rental 174.3 181.8 199.4 210.4 219.153 232 246 260 276 292
% change 4.3% 9.7% 5.5% 4.2% 5.9% 5.9% 5.9% 5.9% 5.9%
Other 83.5 89.7 100.9 106.6 121.2 139 167 197 226 260
% change 7.4% 12.5% 5.7% 13.7% 15.0% 20.0% 17.5% 15.0% 15.0%
Total 752 767 868 964 1,104 1,281 1,492 1,729 1,994 2,293
Lodging and Real Estate Revenue
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Dollars in millions
Lodging 214.7 210.6 211.0 242.3 254.6 266.1 278.2 290.9 304.1 317.9
% change (1.9%) 0.2% 14.8% 5.1% 4.5% 4.5% 4.5% 4.5% 4.5%
Real Estate 200.2 47.2 42.3 48.8 41.3 39.9 38.6 37.3 36.0 34.8
% change (76.4%) (10.3%) 15.3% (15.3%) (3.4%) (3.4%) (3.4%) (3.4%) (3.4%)
Total 414.9 257.8 253.3 291.1 295.9 306.1 316.8 328.1 340.1 352.7
Projections
Projections
Projections
Historicals ending July 31
Historicals ending July 31
Historicals ending July 31
33
provides summer entertainment at Vail Mountain, Breckenridge, and Heavenly resorts.
Hence, bullish expectations in future growth for this division are seen in the model as the
company expects to invest around $50M in the program through FY18; however, the
growth estimates are rough because of lack of guidance for expected revenue growth for
this project.99
Vail Resorts combines its cost of goods sold and other expenses into one lump sum on its
income statement, hence it is difficult to split up costs. I expect overall expenses to decrease
over the next year, as the company reduces its investment allocation in Epic Discovery and
Canyons and Park City resorts and expects synergies from the combination of the two
resorts.100 The income statement projections for Vail are listed below. All items which
cannot be reliably predicted are assumed to not change during the next five years and are
referenced to FY2015 results. Depreciation is driven as a percentage of fixed assets.
A weighted average cost of capital of 7.8% is utilized for Vail Resorts. Vail’s weighted
average cost of capital is derived from information regarding its capital structure, beta, tax
rate, risk free rate, and the expected market return, which are all acquired from the
company’s most recent annual report and Bloomberg.101102 No acquisitions or unforeseen
99
Vail Resorts, Inc. (2015) Investor Presentation 2015
100
Vail Resorts, Inc. (2015) Investor Presentation 2015
101
Bloomberg. Retrieved December 1, 2015
102
Vail Resorts, Inc. (2015) Earnings Report 2015
Income Statement
Our Company 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Dollars in Millions
Revenue 1,167.0 1,024.4 1,120.8 1,254.6 1,399.9 1,587.2 1,808.3 2,057.1 2,334.2 2,645.2
Total Revenue 1,167.0 1,024.4 1,120.8 1,254.6 1,399.9 1,587.2 1,808.3 2,057.1 2,334.2 2,645.2
Combined segment operating exp. 947.4 836.0 891.1 984.4 1,052.9 1,174.5 1,320.1 1,481.1 1,680.6 1,904.6
% of sales 81.2% 81.6% 79.5% 78.5% 75.2% 74.0% 73.0% 72.0% 72.0% 72.0%
EBITDA 219.6 188.4 229.7 270.3 347.0 412.7 488.2 576.0 653.6 740.7
Depreciation & Amortization 118.0 127.6 132.7 140.6 149.1 158.1 180.1 204.9 232.5 263.5
Amortization - - - - - - - - - -
Other Operating Exp., Total 118.0 127.6 132.7 140.6 149.1 158.1 180.1 204.9 232.5 263.5
Operating Income 101.7 60.8 97.0 129.7 197.9 254.6 308.1 371.1 421.1 477.2
Interest Expense (33.6) (33.6) (39.0) (64.0) (51.2) (49.8) (44.3) (44.4) (40.9) (37.7)
Interest & Investment Income 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.2
Net Interest Exp. (32.9) (33.1) (38.6) (63.6) (51.0) (49.8) (44.3) (44.4) (40.9) (37.7)
Income/(Loss) from Affiliates 1.3 0.9 0.9 1.3 0.8 0 0 0 0 0
EBT Excl. Unusual Items 70.1 28.5 59.2 67.3 147.7 204.7 263.8 326.7 380.1 439.5
Merger & Related Restruct. Charges (4.1) - (5.5) (9.8) (5.5) 0 0 0 0 0
Gain (Loss) On Sale Of Assets (0.6) (1.5) 5.5 (1.2) (1.9) 0 0 0 0 0
Legal Settlements - - - - 16.4 0 0 0 0 0
Other Unusual Items (9.9) - - (12.2) (7.4) 0 0 0 0 0
EBT Incl. Unusual Items 55.5 27.0 59.2 44.1 149.3 204.7 263.8 326.7 380.1 439.5
Income Tax Expense 21.1 10.7 21.6 15.9 34.7 73.7 95.0 117.6 136.8 158.2
Earnings from Cont. Ops. 34.5 16.3 37.6 28.2 114.6 131.0 168.8 209.1 243.3 281.3
Net Income 34.5 16.3 37.6 28.2 114.6 131.0 168.8 209.1 243.3 281.3
Foregin Currency Adjustments 0.0 -0.3 0.2 -0.1 -4.7 -4.7 -4.7 -4.7 -4.7 -4.7
Comprehensive Income 34.5 16.1 37.8 28.1 109.9 126.3 164.1 204.4 238.6 276.6
Loss to Nonctrolling Interest 0.067 0.062 0.133 0.272 0.144 0.144 0.144 0.144 0.144 0.144
Comprehensive Net Income 34.5 16.1 37.9 28.4 110.0 126.4 164.3 204.5 238.7 276.7
Historicals ending July 31 Projections
34
future financing needs are taken into account in this calculation, which if realized could
potentially effect Vail’s overall risk and capital structure.
The present value of free cash flows through 2020 is calculated to be $1B. Two methods are
used to calculate terminal value: perpetual growth and exit multiple methods. A perpetual
growth rate of 2% is utilized, which is in-line with projected future growth for the
industry.103 Also, an expected EV/EBIT ratio of 22.3x is used for the exit multiple method,
which is derived from comparable company’s multiples. Hence, an average of the two
methods gives a present value of the terminal value of $5.96B. An implied stock price of
$165.3 is calculated as seen in the figure below.
103
Alvarez, A. (2014, December). Ski & Snowboard Resorts in the US: Market Research Report. Retrieved
September 28, 2015
Vail Resorts WACC
Cost of Debt
Interest Rate 6.4%
Tax Rate 36%
Weight of Debt 16.9%
Weighted Cost of Debt 0.7%
Cost of Equity
Risk Free Rate 2.22%
Expected Market Return 9.36%
Beta 0.89
Weight of Equity 83.1%
Weighted Cost of Equity 7.1%
Weight Average Cost of Capital 7.8%
Discounted Cash Flow
Dollars in M illions 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
After tax EBIT 131.0 168.8 209.1 243.3 281.3
Depreciation and amortization 158.1 180.1 204.9 232.5 263.5
Change in w orking capital 4.6 6.6 7.4 8.4 9.4
Capex 140.0 150.0 150.0 150.0 150.0
Free cash flow 144.6 192.4 256.6 317.4 385.4
PV of FCF 1,003.7
PV of Terminal Value 5,962.2
Implied Enterprise Value 6,965.9
Debt 816.8
Cash 35.5
Implied Market Value of Equity 6,184.5
Shares Outstanding 37.4
1 Year Target Price 165.3
Implied Stock Price
35
Multiples Analysis
The average of public comparable company’s multiples should be used to value Vail Resorts
using multiples analysis. The one pure comparable company for Vail is Intrawest Resorts,
which is the only other public ski resort holding company traded in the United States.
Hence, companies are utilized which give a broad exposure to values in the leisure and
travel industry to create a more accurate average multiple. The comparable companies in
the figure below reflect the following industries: luxury lodging, theme parks, country club,
cruise line, and car racing. All of these industries are subject to cyclical consumer demand
fluctuations as a result of consumer discretionary spending, like the ski and snowboard
resort industry. The mean market cap for these companies is 5,300B, which is close to Vail
Resorts at 4,300B.104 The average EV/EBITDA multiple for the set is 11.8x, and the average
forward P/E ratio is 23.7x.
If Vail Resorts is valued using the EV/EBITA comparable average of 11.8x and the 2016
EBITDA projection of $488.2M, this yields an implied enterprise value of $5,736.9B and an
implied 1-yr stock price of $140.50. An average NTM P/E multiple for comparable
companies of 23.7x and a projected 2017 EPS of $5.59 presents an implied 1-yr stock price
of $132.24.
104
All comparable company information was retrieved from capitaliq.com. Information retrieved December 1,
2015
Vail Resorts Comp Set
As of Dec 1, 2015
Market Capitalization TEV/Total Revenues LTM TEV/EBITDA LTM TEV/EBIT LTM P/Diluted EPS Before Extra LTM NTM TEV/Forward Total Revenue NTM TEV/Forward EBITDA NTM Forward P/E
Starwood Hotels & Resorts Worldwide Inc. (NYSE:HOT) 12,114 4.3x 11.8x 15.1x 21.6x 2.28x 10.94x 22.29x
Six Flags Entertainment Corporation (NYSE:SIX) 4,835 5.4x 15.9x 21.3x 43.9x 5.11x 12.98x 30.09x
SeaWorld Entertainment, Inc. (NYSE:SEAS) 1,582 2.3x 9.1x 19.0x 43.9x 2.21x 8.18x 17.91x
ClubCorp Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:MYCC) 1,148 2.1x 12.2x 28.6x 40.7x 1.98x 8.76x 32.80x
Intrawest Resorts Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:SNOW) 388 1.5x 9.4x 24.6x NM 1.51x 7.59x 13.28x
Hyatt Hotels Corporation (NYSE:H) 6,874 3.0x 12.8x 27.3x 27.1x 1.68x 9.77x 35.51x
International Speedway Corp. (NasdaqGS:ISCA) 4,017 2.8x 8.8x 15.6x 32.2x 2.55x 8.15x 21.90x
Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. (NYSE:RCL) 20,244 3.5x 14.0x 23.2x 35.7x 3.22x 11.96x 15.50x
Vail Resorts Inc. (NYSE:MTN) 4,300 3.6x 14.7x 25.6x 38.5x 3.30x 5.64x 33.24x
Summary Statistics Market Capitalization TEV/Total Revenues LTM TEV/EBITDA LTM TEV/EBIT LTM P/Diluted EPS Before Extra LTM NTM TEV/Forward Total Revenue NTM TEV/Forward EBITDA NTM Forward P/E
High 20,244 5.4x 15.9x 28.6x 43.9x 5.1x 13.0x 35.5x
Low 388 1.5x 8.8x 15.1x 21.6x 1.5x 7.6x 13.3x
Mean 20,244 3.6x 11.8x 21.8x 35.0x 2.6x 9.8x 23.7x
Median 4,426 2.9x 12.0x 22.3x 35.7x 2.2x 9.3x 22.1x
NTM P/E Multiple 23.7x
2017 EPS $5.59
Implied 2016 Stock Price $132.24
EV/EBITDA Multiple 11.8x
2016 EBITDA 488.2
Implied 2016 EV 5,736.9
Debt 688.9
Cash 94.4
Implied Market Value of Equity 5,142.4
Shares Outstanding 36.6
Implied 2016 Stock Price $140.50
P/E Valuation
EV/EBITDA Valuation
Multiples Valuation
36
Sensitivity Analysis
Sensitivity analysis is conducted to determine how the implied stock price will be affected
by key valuation drivers for Vail Resorts. Incremental growth for revenue segments and
operating expenses as a percentage of sales are varied by 1% in upside and downside cases
to sensitize performance from operations. Other important valuation metrics specific to DCF
and multiples valuation are adjusted to project downside and upside cases. The base case
yields a 12.4% upside from the current stock price, while the upside case projects 29.4%
upside, and the downside case reflects 0.9% downside. Assumptions and target prices
generated by each model are found on the following page.
37
Conclusion
The below figure shows the valuation range for Vail Resorts, resulting in a 1-year average
target price of $145.88, which reflects a 12.4% upside from the current stock price of
Income Statement - Revenues
Dow nside Base Upside
Lift Tickets (1.0%) 0.0% 1.0% 0.0%
Ski School (1.0%) 0.0% 1.0% 0.0%
Dining (1.0%) 0.0% 1.0% 0.0%
Retail (1.0%) 0.0% 1.0% 0.0%
Other (1.0%) 0.0% 1.0% 0.0%
Dow nside Base Upside
Lodging 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0%
Real Estate 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0%
Income Statement - Expenses
Dow nside Base Upside
75.0% 74.0% 73.0% 74.0%
DCF
Dow nside Base Upside
8.3% 7.8% 7.3% 7.8%
Dow nside Base Upside
1.7% 2.0% 2.3% 2.0%
Dow nside Base Upside
22.1x 22.3x 22.5x 22.3x
Multiples Valuation
Dow nside Base Upside
11.3x 11.8x 12.3x 11.8x
Dow nside Base Upside
21.6x 22.1x 22.6x 22.1x
EV/EBIT Exit Multiple
EV/EBITDA Multiple
NTM P/E Multiple
WACC
Perpetual Growth Rate
Lodging and Real Estate Revenue - Incremental Growth
Moutain Segment Revenue - Incremental Growth
Operating Expenses as % of Sales
DCF Target Price $165.33
P/ETarget Price $132.24
EV/EBITDA Target Price $140.50
Average 1-yr/2016 Target Price $145.88
Current Stock Price $129.74
Upside/Dow nside 12.4%
Vail Resorts (MTN) Target Price
DCF Target Price $201.74
P/ETarget Price $144.73
EV/EBITDA Target Price $156.99
Average 1-yr/2016 Target Price $167.65
Current Stock Price $129.74
Upside/Dow nside 29.2%
Vail Resorts (MTN) Target Price
DCF Target Price $138.41
P/ETarget Price $121.56
EV/EBITDA Target Price $126.04
Average 1-yr/2016 Target Price $128.54
Current Stock Price $129.74
Upside/Dow nside -0.9%
Vail Resorts (MTN) Target Price
38
$129.74.105 This stock price does not take into account the potential of an acquisition, as it
is not feasible to predict. Thus, it is recommended to purchase this stock, and extra value
could be added in future years through acquisitions. Risks that could hamper this
appreciation in stock price include a poor snow season, failure to realize the synergies of
acquisitions, or a drastic change in discretionary consumer spending. The market is likely
undervaluing this stock because of its uncertainty to meet high growth expectations, but
following this analysis, it seems likely the Vail Resorts will meet or exceed growth
expectations because of its competitive advantages, successful acquisitions, and strong lift
ticket sales.
105
Stock price retrieved from yahoofinance.com at market close on December 15, 2015
DCF Target Price $165.33
P/ETarget Price $132.24
EV/EBITDA Target Price $140.50
Average 1-yr/2016 Target Price $145.88
Current Stock Price $129.74
Upside/Dow nside 12.4%
Vail Resorts (MTN) Target Price

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Jay T Anderson Vail Resorts - Final Draft

  • 1. 1 Equity Research Report – Vail Resorts Inc. (MTN) Analyst: Jay T Anderson 12/15/15 University of Utah Student Investment Fund Advisor: Elizabeth Tashjian
  • 2. 2 Table of Contents Executive Summary.....................................................................................................................................4 Company Overview.....................................................................................................................................5 Industry Analysis.........................................................................................................................................6 Major Players Market Share....................................................................................................................6 Consolidating Market...............................................................................................................................6 Growth Factors and Risks ........................................................................................................................7 Climate Analysis ..........................................................................................................................................8 El Niño ......................................................................................................................................................9 Business Model............................................................................................................................................9 Mountain (79% of FY 2015 Revenue)......................................................................................................9 Lodging (18% of FY 2015 Revenue)......................................................................................................11 Real Estate (3% of FY 2015 Revenue)...................................................................................................12 Product Analysis........................................................................................................................................13 Lift Tickets..............................................................................................................................................13 Growth Strategy.........................................................................................................................................14 High-end Destination Guests .................................................................................................................15 Pricing Strategy and Acquisitions .........................................................................................................15 Leverage Fixed Cost Base.......................................................................................................................15 Data-driven Targeted Marketing..........................................................................................................15 Reinvestment in Guest Experience.........................................................................................................16 Risks........................................................................................................................................................16 Conclusion ..............................................................................................................................................17 Corporate Employees................................................................................................................................17 Management Team ................................................................................................................................17 Management Compensation..................................................................................................................19 Summary of Ownership..........................................................................................................................20 Management Key Goals and Analysis....................................................................................................20 Employee Overview................................................................................................................................22 Employee Satisfaction and Benefits ......................................................................................................23 Competitive Advantages...........................................................................................................................24 Epic Pass.................................................................................................................................................24 Market Leader........................................................................................................................................24
  • 3. 3 High Income Guests................................................................................................................................24 Premium Pricing ....................................................................................................................................24 Facility Improvements ...........................................................................................................................25 Financial and Ratio Analysis.....................................................................................................................25 Income Statement ..................................................................................................................................25 Balance Sheet .........................................................................................................................................27 Capital Structure....................................................................................................................................28 Ratios......................................................................................................................................................29 Stock Price Analysis ..................................................................................................................................30 Valuation....................................................................................................................................................31 Discounted Cash Flow Analysis..............................................................................................................31 Multiples Analysis...................................................................................................................................35 Sensitivity Analysis.................................................................................................................................36 Conclusion..................................................................................................................................................37
  • 4. 4 Executive Summary Vail Resorts Inc. (NYSE:MTN) runs eleven premier mountain resorts throughout the United States and one in Australia along with a portfolio of luxury hotels and real estate. The company operates mountain resorts in Colorado, Utah, California, Nevada, Minnesota, Michigan, and Australia. Vail Resorts is the largest mountain resort holding company in the United States, maintaining nearly 34% of revenues in the industry. The company generates revenues through its mountain, lodging, and real estate segments. Vail’s resorts are luxurious travel destinations, and the average income of each destination guest at its resorts is $295K. Hence, Vail Resorts follows a premium pricing strategy for its primary revenue driver, lift tickets. The company also offers value lift tickets such as the Epic Pass, which allows unlimited access to Vail’s twelve resorts and ten other resorts worldwide. Vail Resorts has recently experienced substantial revenue growth from acquisitions and an increase in Epic Pass sales. The ski and snowboard resort industry is competitive. It is in a consolidating phase, as many resorts are being sold, consolidated, or closing down because of declining revenues, poor winters, and lack of capital investment. Growth drivers for the industry include upgrades to existing resorts, acquisitions, consumer’s time spent on leisure and vacations, season pass strategy, disposable income, and annual precipitation. Risks to the industry include climate change, government permits, the high fixed cost structure of a mountain resort, and seasonal business. The company’s management team is headlined by CEO Robert Katz, who has been with the company since the early 1990s. After being appointed CEO in 2006, he lead the introduction of the Epic Pass and initiated Vail’s acquisition and capital investment strategy. Vail Resorts has outperformed the S&P 500 by nearly 44% year-to-date. As of December 15, 2015, the company’s stock trades at $129.74 per share. An average of multiples and discounted cash flow analysis values the stock at $145.88, which reflects 12.4% upside. I recommend the University of Utah Student Investment Fund buy this stock. The company is bolstered by its competitive advantages which include the Epic Pass, a market leading position, dedication to facility improvements, a premium pricing strategy, and high income customers.
  • 5. 5 Company Overview Vail Resorts, Inc. is a premiere mountain resort company and an industry leader in luxury and destination based travel. The company operates resorts that include skiing and snowboarding terrain, dining, luxury hotel rooms, condominiums, and other products and services. Vail’s mission statement is “Experience of a Lifetime,” as the company strives to provide an exceptional experience for its guests and employees.1 Vail Mountain first opened in 1962. It has evolved into a resort holding company that filed for its initial public offering in 1997 at a price of $22.00 per share. The company is headquartered in Broomfield, Colorado. During the 2014/2015 season, Vail Resorts had 8.2 million skier visits, or 15.3% of the U.S. market.2 Vail Resorts is best known for its portfolio of world-class mountain resorts and ski areas which are listed below.3 1 Vail Corporate (vailresorts.com). Retrieved December 14, 2015 2 Vail Resorts, Inc. (2015) Form 10-K 2015 3 Vail Resorts, Inc. (2015) Form 10-K 2015 Colorado •Breceknridge Ski Resort - (Most visited mountain resort in the U.S.) •Vail Mountain - (Second most visited mountain resort in the U.S.) •Keystone Resort - (Third most visited mountain resort in the U.S.) •Beaver Creek Resort - (Fifth most visited mountain resort in the U.S.) Lake Tahoe Area of California and Nevada •Heavenly Mountain Resort - (Largest snowmaking capacity in the Lake Tahoe region) •Northtar Resort •Kirkwood Mountain Resort Utah •Park City Mountain Resort - (Recently acquired in 2014) •Canyons Resort - (Largest mountain resort in Utah, recently acquired in 2013) •The two Utah resorts will be combined to create the largest mountain resort in the U.S. Michigan •Mount Brighton Ski Area Minnesota •Afton Alps Ski Area - (Largest ski area near a major city in the Midwest) Australia •Perisher Resort - (Largest and most visited resort in Australia, recently acquired in June 2015)
  • 6. 6 Listed below is selected financial and stock information for Vail Resorts as of 12/15/15.45 Vail Resorts Inc. (MTN) Industry Analysis Vail Resorts resides in the ski and snowboard resort, hotel, and real estate industries. The ski and snowboard resort industry will be the point of emphasis during this analysis, because it is the clear driver of revenue for the company. This industry includes businesses that operate downhill, cross-country, and other winter mountain recreation. Revenue is largely generated by the skiing facilities, equipment rental, ski schools, concessions, and merchandise.6 The hotel and real estate divisions have the similar drivers as the resorts, because demand for them is derived from the demand for the mountain recreation division. Major Players Market Share Vail Resorts currently maintains 33.6% of the market share in the United States by revenue, with the next two largest players being Intrawest Corporation and Boyne Resorts, with 8.5% and 7.5% market share respectively.7 Consolidating Market Currently, the number of ski resorts in the industry is not growing. In fact, many resorts are being sold, consolidated, or closing down because of declining revenues, poor winters, and lack of capital investment. At the Snowsports Industries America trade show in January 2015, industry leaders convened to discuss the challenges facing the ski resort industry. 4 Yahoo Finance. Retrieved December 15, 2015 5 S&P Capital IQ. Retrieved December 15, 2015 6 Alvarez, A. (2014, December 1). Ski & Snowboard Resorts in the US: Market Research Report. Retrieved September 28, 2015 7 Alvarez, A. (2014, December). Ski & Snowboard Resorts in the US: Market Research Report. Retrieved September 28, 2015  Price: $129.74  Market Cap: $4.44B  Beta: .89  Dividend Yield: 2.04%  Forward P/E: 33.24x  Debt/Equity: 92.8%  ROA: 6.3%  Earnings increased at 24% CAGR the past six years  YOY Qtrly Revenue Growth: 19.6%  52-Week High (12/15/15) : $130.42
  • 7. 7 Bill Jensen, a reputable industry executive who previously worked for Vail Resorts, explained at the conference that “150 of the current 470 ski resorts in the United States are going to fail and turn off the lifts”.8 Hence, with the lack of growth in resorts, existing resort operators are left with the opportunity to acquire these properties within the industry. Growth Factors and Risks The following are key drivers for profit in the industry.  Domestic vacations  International vacations  Disposable income  Time spent on leisure and sports  Season pass strategy  Upgrades to existing resorts  Acquisitions of existing resorts These are unique risks often associated with the industry.  Seasonal business  High fixed cost structure of a mountain resort  Government permits and environmental regulation  Climate change This industry has seen an average revenue growth of 2.5% from 2009 to 2014, with Vail Resorts reporting average growth of 6.3%.9 Growth for the industry is expected to continue at 2.3% through 2019.10 Volatile snow conditions lead to minimal industry growth from 2010 to 2012, but in 2013 industry revenue increased by 6.4% as precipitation recovered. The U.S. consumer confidence index has improved substantially in recent years, rising from 25.3 in 2009 to 101.4 in June of 2014.11 During the past two years, the S&P Leisure Facilities Index has increased about 15%, compared to a 6% return from the S&P 500.12 Consumers are willing to spend more money, and per capita disposable income has a positive outlook, barring a significant economic downturn. The strong performance from the U.S. dollar might decrease the number of international visitors in the coming years; however, through April of 2015, the recent strengthening of the dollar did not have a significant impact on inbound international travel rates.13 8 Barber, M. (2015, January 29). Ski Industry Expert Says 31% of Today's Ski Areas Are Dying. Retrieved November 16, 2015 9 Alvarez, A. (2014, December 1). Ski & Snowboard Resorts in the US: Market Research Report. Retrieved September 28, 2015 10 Alvarez, A. (2014, December 1). Ski & Snowboard Resorts in the US: Market Research Report. Retrieved September 28, 2015 11 S&P Capital IQ. (2015, September 26). Vail Resorts Inc. Stock Report. Retrieved September 28, 2015. 12 S&P 500 Annual Returns. Retrieved September 28, 2015, from http://finance.google.com/ 13 Turner, S. (2015, April 2). Hotels not yet seeing strong US dollar impact. Retrieved September 28, 2015
  • 8. 8 The percentage of revenue from local visitors has increased during the last five years. Currently, local visitors account for 41.4% of resort revenue.14 This was driven by a decline in destination visitors, but the future trends of revenue and consumer demand are expected to rise, thus driving domestic travel. The Bureau of Economic Analysis predicts per capita disposable income will increase at a CAGR of 2.4% from 2015-2020, in contrast to 1.5% during the last five years.15 At the end of 2014, four firms accounted for 60% of the industry’s revenue. Climate change, poor winters, and high fixed costs associated with the industry necessitate expensive technological advances such as snowmaking equipment and new ski lifts, which has accounted for an increase in acquisitions, as small regional firms get purchased by large operators with more efficient and capital intensive management.16 Also, the expenses of government permits and adapting to environmental regulation make it more difficult for resorts with less access to capital and snowmaking equipment to withstand poor snow seasons. Large firms also have the ability to offer multi-resort passes. Holding companies in the industry integrate cost-saving, capital intensive, and consumer-enticing strategies, thus creating a barrier to entry for new resorts not operated by a parent company. Special Use Permits are granted to resorts by the United States government, allowing them to use federal land for 30 years. Resorts are entirely dependent on permits, licenses, and agreements to have access to adequate water and land to carry out operations. Despite the heavy regulation, trends are historically steady and expected remain so in the future.17 Climate Analysis Although average rainfall is expected to increase moderately in the next five years, global climate change is one of the largest threats to the industry.18 Lower global precipitation requires companies in the industry to increase spending to improve snow conditions with artificial snow. Throughout the world, 95% of ski areas rely on snowmaking to sustain regular season schedules.19 In 2012, the Natural Resources Defense Council predicted that winter temperatures could rise up to 4 to 10 degrees on average during the next century, resulting in a shorter snow seasons.20 The council recommends immediate action to reduce greenhouse emissions, which are believed to be the main catalyst for rising temperatures. 14 Alvarez, A. (2014, December 1). Ski & Snowboard Resorts in the US: Market Research Report. Retrieved September 28, 2015 15 Business Environment Report: Per capita disposable income. (2015, March). Retrieved September 28, 2015. 16 Alvarez, A. (2014, December 1). Ski & Snowboard Resorts in the US: Market Research Report. Retrieved September 28, 2015 17 Alvarez, A. (2014, December 1). Ski & Snowboard Resorts in the US: Market Research Report. Retrieved September 28, 2015 18 Alvarez, A. (2014, December 1). Ski & Snowboard Resorts in the US: Market Research Report. Retrieved September 28, 2015 19 Brunette, K. (2015, May 5). Climate Change Casualty: What the ski industry stands to lose. Retrieved September 28, 2015 20 Burakowski, E. (2012, December). Natural Resources Defense Council, “Climate Impacts on the Winter Tourism Economy in the U.S." Retrieved September 28, 2015
  • 9. 9 Resorts have joined an initiative to support inhibiting climate change. Over 190 resorts in the United States have adopted the Sustainable Slopes Program to promote renewable and green energy use at resorts, protect wildlife, and educate guests on sustainable environmental practices. The program has resulted in cost savings for participants.21 El Niño The National Weather Service is predicting a strong El Niño weather pattern for the Northern Hemisphere through winter 2015-2016.22 Colorado and Lake Tahoe ski resorts are likely to see above average snowfall during this weather phenomenon, which would be beneficial to Vail’s resorts in those areas.23 The picture on the right, courtesy of the National Weather Service, depicts the precipitation outlook from December 2015 to February 2016. Business Model Vail Resorts makes money through three different segments: mountain, lodging and real estate. Each segment generated 79%, 18%, and 3% of revenue respectively in the 2015 fiscal year.24 Mountain (79% of FY 2015 Revenue) Vail Resorts operates the three most visited mountain resorts in the United States: Vail Mountain Resort, Breckenridge Ski Resort, and Keystone Resort. The company manages eleven total resorts in Colorado, Utah, California, Nevada, Minnesota, and Michigan. On March 30, 2015, Vail acquired its first international resort, Perisher Resort in New South Wales, Australia. Vail owns 9 out of its 12 resorts and has long-term leases at Canyons, Northstar, and Perisher.25 21 Alvarez, A. (2014, December 1). Ski & Snowboard Resorts in the US: Market Research Report. Retrieved September 28, 2015 22 National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center. Retrieved December 14, 2015 23 Tarmy, J. (2015, November 19). How El Nino Will Affect Ski Season in America. Retrieved December 15, 2015 24 Vail Resorts, Inc. (2015) Form 10-K 2015 25 Vail Resorts, Inc. (2015) Form 10-K 2015 79% 18% 3% Segements by Revenue Mountain Lodging Real Estate
  • 10. 10 The company’s mountain segment produces revenue through various means including lift tickets, season passes, equipment rentals, ski and snowboarding lessons, retail merchandise, dining, private club operations, and other winter and summer recreational activities. Vail Resorts leases some commercial space to third party operators. During the last three fiscal years, lift tickets and season passes have accounted for 46.8% of this segment’s revenue.26 Destination guests made up 59% of resort visits, compared to in-state customers which comprised 41% during the 2014/2015 season.27 Destination guests usually purchase higher priced lift tickets, lodging, ski lessons, and rental services. In-state guests are generally more concerned with value and the weather, and they primarily generate revenue for Vail Resorts through the purchase of season passes, which offer flexibility for customers and a hedge to weather sensitivity for the company. The Epic Pass accounted for 40% of lift pass revenue during the 2014/2015 season.28 The amount of passes purchased online has increased substantially in the last two fiscal years, from 35% to 55% of total sales.29 Moving forward, online sales will likely be a large driver of Vail’s revenue. The mountain segment’s cost structure includes significant fixed costs to lease land, with variable costs such as Forest Service fees, labor, and credit card fees. Vail’s operating expense for the mountain segment from 2013-2015 largely was driven by the cost of labor, accounting for 37.6% of variable expenses. The company is set to pay $3.2 billion in contractual obligations in the foreseeable future, with $357.4 million due next year, showing the dominating aspect of fixed costs in the company. (2015 10-K) 26 Vail Resorts, Inc. (2015) Form 10-K 2015 27 Vail Resorts, Inc. (2015) Form 10-K 2015 28 Vail Resorts, Inc. (2015) Form 10-K 2015 29 Vail Resorts, Inc. (2015) Investor Presentation 2015 Mountain Net Revenue (thousands) 2015 2014 2013 Avg % of Total Lift 536,458$ 447,271$ 390,820$ 46.8% Ski school 126,206 109,442 95,254 11.3% Dinning 101,010 89,892 81,175 9.3% Retail/rental 219,153 210,387 199,418 21.4% Other 121,202 106,581 100,847 11.2% Total 1,104,029$ 963,573$ 867,514$ 35% 55% FY14 FY15 Online Share of Ticket Purchases
  • 11. 11 (2015 10-K) (2015 10-K) Lodging (18% of FY 2015 Revenue) Vail’s lodging segment owns and manages approximately 5,000 total hotel and condominium rooms at its resort properties.30 While most of these rooms are located at ski and snowboard resorts, Vail also owns summer destination resorts in the Grand Teton National Park and headwaters Lodge & Cabins at Flagg Ranch, which is between Grand Teton National Park and Yellowstone National Park. Other substantial revenue generators include restaurants, seven company owned golf courses in Utah, Colorado, Wyoming, and California, and a resort ground transportation company in Colorado. The business for this segment is very seasonal. It usually reports losses from spring to late fall, even though it is the peak season for Vail’s summer resorts, Australia based Perisher Resort, and golf courses.31 The performance of this segment is very closely tied to the performance of the mountain segment, and it generally experiences the same seasonal trends and risks. Destination guests accounted for 70%, 71%, and 67% of all lodging revenue for the 2015, 2014, and 2013 fiscal years respectively.32 The segment primarily generates revenue from its owned hotel rooms, managed condominiums, and dining. Operating expenses are largely dominated by labor. 30 Vail Resorts, Inc. (2015) Form 10-K 2015 31 Vail Resorts, Inc. (2015) Form 10-K 2015 32 Vail Resorts, Inc. (2015) Form 10-K 2015 Mountain Operating Expense (thousands) 2015 2014 2013 Avg % of Total Labor and Labor-related 291,582$ 266,411$ 243,208$ 37.6% Retail cost of sales 87,817 88,291 88,500 12.4% Resort related fees 59,685 49,168 42,020 7.1% General and admin. 143,772 125,678 109,181 17.8% Other 194,291 183,237 156,797 25.1% Total 777,147$ 712,785$ 639,706$ Contractual Obligations (thousands) Total 2016 2-3 years 4-5 years More than 5 years Long-term Debt (Outstanding Principal) 816,830$ 10,154$ 26,751$ 402,596$ 377,329$ Fixed Rate Interest 2,246 269 497 438 1,042 Canyons Obligation 1,742,201 26,109 53,796 55,969 1,606,327 Operating Leases and Service Cotracts 302,294 43,738 61,661 48,145 148,750 Purchase Obligations and Other 356,973 277,099 66,492 5,118 8,264 Total Contractual Cash Obligations 3,220,544$ 357,369$ 209,197$ 512,266$ 2,141,712$
  • 12. 12 (2015 10-K) (2015 10-K) Real Estate (3% of FY 2015 Revenue) The company’s real estate segment develops and owns real estate in or near its resorts. Vail Resorts holds real property at mountain resorts in Colorado. The operations take place through Vail Resorts Development Company, which includes oversight, planning, infrastructure improvement, development, marketing, and sale and lease of property holdings.33 This adds value to the firm as it creates additional resort lodging venues, expands property management, and another opportunity to create recurring revenue. The mix of real estate sold and timing for the closing of deals drive revenue for this segment.34 In 2015, a large portion of cost of sales, $32.1M, was attributed to the closing of 14 condominiums at Oak Ski Hill Place in Breckenridge, 5 condominiums at the Ritz Carlton in Vail Mountain, and a land development parcel in Vail Mountain. Revenue of $39.3M was realized from these sales.35 The high costs of Vail’s real estate projects stem from the significant cost of developing on a mountain resort, including the high-end features and amenities. Other expenses for this segment primarily include general and administrative costs, carry and overhead costs, allocated corporate costs, and marketing expenses. 33 Vail Resorts, Inc. (2015) Form 10-K 2015 34 Vail Resorts, Inc. (2015) Form 10-K 2015 35 Vail Resorts, Inc. (2015) Form 10-K 2015 Lodging Net Revenue (thousands) 2015 2014 2013 Avg % of Total Owned hotel rooms 57,916$ 53,199$ 48,449$ 23.4% Managed condiminiukm rooms 58,936 55,214 44,486 23.3% Dinning 46,209 44,023 33,809 18.2% Transportation 23,079 22,006 19,602 9.5% Golf 16,340 15,410 15,237 6.9% Other 41,760 42,204 38,562 18.0% Total 244,240$ 234,070$ 202,158$
  • 13. 13 (2015 10-K) Product Analysis Vail Resort’s primary service is to provide access to skiing and snowboarding. This is the main driver for revenue in the mountain segment and ultimately the entire company. Most revenue generators of the mountain segment ultimately rely upon and are driven by lift ticket sales. For example, equipment rentals do not raise demand for lift tickets, tickets directly affect demand for rentals. Lift Tickets The staple of the ski resort industry, and for Vail Resorts, is lift tickets. They are the primary revenue driver, and a necessity to again access to a resort. Lift tickets are divided into two segments: higher priced lift tickets and discounted season passes. Destination guests usually purchase the higher priced lift tickets. Lift tickets differ in price from resort to resort and are offered at a discount if bought in packages or in advance. Vail Mountain Resort in Colorado currently sells day lift tickets for $120.36 Season passes are generally marketed towards in-state guests, although destination guests purchase them as well. In the fiscal years 2015, 2014, and 2013, 40%, 40%, and 38% of all lift ticket revenue respectively was derived from season passes.37 Vail’s Epic Pass gives unlimited access to all eleven of its resorts in the United States, Perisher Resort in Australia, and ten other resorts worldwide. It features discounted pricing, with a $789 charge for adults.38 This is an increase from the $729 price in 2014. There are also value oriented Epic passes available for locals and college students, even though they have some restrictions, such as limited access to some resorts. For all passes, the company offers discounted pricing for Juniors (5-12) and Seniors (65+). It is the best selling season pass in the industry, bolstered by its competitive advantage of allowing access to Vail’s world-class resorts.39 In 36 Vail.com. Retrieved October 15, 2015 37 Vail Resorts, Inc. (2015) Form 10-K 2015 38 The Passes. (n.d.). Retrieved October 6, 2015, from http://www.snow.com/epic-pass/passes.aspx 39 Vail Resorts, Inc. (2015) Investor Presentation 2015 Real Estate Segment (thousands) 2015 2014 2013 Total Real Estate net revenue 41,342$ 48,786$ 42,309$ Real Estate operating expense: Cost of sales (including sales comissions) 34,765 41,274 35,503 Other 13,643 14,552 22,587 Total Real Estate operating expense 48,408 55,826 58,090 Gain on sale of real property 151 - 6,675 Real Estate reported EBITDA (6,915)$ ($7,040) ($9,106) (Investor Presentation 2015)
  • 14. 14 2015, over 400,000 Epic Passes were sold for $200M in sales to consumers in all 50 states and 83 countries.40 Destination guests are the fastest growing segment of Epic Pass holders, accounting for 40% of total sales last year.41 This number is expected to grow with the addition of the largest ski resort in Australia. Vail believes this will increase visits to its North American resorts. The first full selling season in FY16 with the Park City/Canyons resort combination is also expected to drive sales. Intrawest, Boyne Resorts, and Powdr, the United States’ largest three resort holding companies behind Vail resorts, have partnered to offer a product to challenge the Epic Pass. The Max Pass offers access to 22 ski areas in Canada and the United States and it is priced at $699 for adults.42 This pass will be offered for the first time during the 2015/2016 season and is the first of its kind to contest the Epic Pass. Through September 20, 2015, pre-season pass sales for the 2015/2016 season have increased by 16% in units and 22% in sales compared to the previous year ended September 21, 2014, not including sales at Perisher.43 Hence, the Max Pass has not yet posed a legitimate threat to Vail’s Epic Pass sales. Growth Strategy Vail Resorts prides itself as the “volume and quality leader” in the industry, with four out of the top five most visited resorts in the United States.44 This is validated by the firm’s market share. Operating just eleven resorts in the United States and one in Australia, the company holds a majority 33.6% of the U.S. ski and snowboard resort market share by revenue, making Vail Resorts the clear volume leader.45 The company is in an enviable position to achieve its growth strategies, which include organic and inorganic growth. Overall, Vail’s growth strategies are consistent with this research. Vail Resorts listed the following strategies for “sustainable growth” during its 2015 Investors Conference Presentation.46  High-end destination guest acquisition  Sophisticated pricing strategy drives volume and yield o Season pass provides value with early commitment o Premium pricing for non-pass holders  Acquisitions to enhance pass network and create scale 40 Vail Resorts, Inc. (2015) Investor Presentation 2015 41 Vail Resorts, Inc. (2015) Investor Presentation 2015 42 Barber, M. (n.d.). Competitors Take Aim at Vail Resorts With New 22-Ski Area M.A.X. Season Pass. Retrieved October 6, 2015 43 Vail Resorts, Inc. (2015) Form 10-K 2015 44 Vail Resorts, Inc. (2015) Corporate Strategies. Retrieved from vailresorts.com 45 Alvarez, A. (2014, December). Ski & Snowboard Resorts in the US: Market Research Report. Retrieved September 28, 2015 46 Vail Resorts, Inc. (2015) Investor Presentation 2015
  • 15. 15  Leverage fixed cost base to drive margin and cash flow  Data-driven targeted marketing  Reinvestment in facility improvements High-end Destination Guests The company strives to appeal to a customer base that seeks high end travel. The company is currently succeeding in this regard, as the average income for all guests is $170,000, and destination guests have an average income of $295,000.4748 Pricing Strategy and Acquisitions Vail has successfully implemented its growth strategy for season pass and lift ticket pricing in the past. The Epic Pass offers value, which is seen in its high volume of sales to potentially more price sensitive guests, as it accounted for approximately 40% of lift revenue during the 2014/2015 season.49 Traditional lift tickets are more geared towards premium pricing. The company has gradually increased the “early bird” price of its Epic Pass from $749 during the 2014/2015 season to $789 for the 2015/2016 season. Through September 20, 2015, this price change has resulted in growth for Vail Resorts, as pre- season pass sales for the 2015/2016 season have increased 16% in units and 22% in sales over last year. During the 2014/2015 season, lift revenue, excluding season passes, increased by 18.2%, driven by an increase in prices and the addition of Park City, Canyons, and Perisher resorts.50 Leverage Fixed Cost Base Vail’s growth strategy to leverage its fixed cost base to drive margin and cash flow is a trend the company has followed in the past and is likely to maintain in the future. In May 2015, Vail Resorts borrowed $185M under the revolver portion of their Credit Agreement to fund the acquisition of Perisher Resort.51 This was exercised to fund the acquisition of Perisher resort and capital expenditures to improve guest experience. Through debt financing, the company expands and invests in its business, which by nature has a high fixed cost structure. This strategy should remain beneficial to the company in the future, as it strives to invest and expand without decreasing margin. Data-driven Targeted Marketing Marketing for Vail’s passes is oriented around data analytics and personalized marketing to existing and prospective guests. The company promotes resorts and passes through customer relationships via email, direct mail, promotional programs, TV, print, and digital marketing. 47 Vail Resorts, Inc. (2015) Investor Presentation 2015 48 Vail Resorts, Inc. (2015) Corporate Strategies. Retrieved from vailresorts.com 49 Vail Resorts, Inc. (2015) Form 10-K 2015 50 Vail Resorts, Inc. (2015) Form 10-K 2015 51 Vail Resorts, Inc. (2015) Form 10-K 2015
  • 16. 16 Most effort is positioned to drive traffic to Vail’s website. As can be seen in the graph to the right, Vail Resort’s has substantially improved its ability to obtain customer’s address data. The email open rate of past or potential customers has improved as well, which exceeds the top quartile of the industry.52 Vail’s goal to be a high growth company can be seen in its efforts to market and improve its products, with the focus being lift tickets. Reinvestment in Guest Experience The company has committed itself to improving the “guest experience” by investing in resort improvements and acquisitions. The company is currently in the process of investing $110 to $115 million in resort improvements for the 2015-2016 season, which brings its trailing five-year investment total to over $500 million.53 Vail’s capital investments include its Epic Discovery Program, which promotes summer tourism at Vail Mountain, Breckenridge, and Heavenly resorts. Epic Discovery offers summer activities such as mountain coasters, tubing, zip lines, and canopy tours. The company has invested $14M in this project to date and expects to invest $65-70M through CY18.54 Vail estimates a $15M incremental EBITDA benefit from the program at each resort during maturity, which will reduce the risk of seasonality by providing a buffer to poor winters.55 Risks Vail’s primary unique risk is the firm’s ability to carry out successful and profitable acquisitions. The company actively pursues acquisitions to add value to the firm and brand. Vail lists the following as substantial risks that result from acquiring a resort.56  Evaluation of the synergies and/or long-term benefits of an acquired business  Inability to integrate acquired businesses into operations as planned  Diversion of management’s attention  Potential increased debt leverage  Litigation arising from acquisition activity 52 Vail Resorts, Inc. (2015) Investor Presentation 2015 53 Vail Resorts Commits $110 Million in Resort Improvements for 2015-16, Including Creating the Largest Ski Resort in the U.S. at Park City. (2015, August 25). Retrieved November 19, 2015 54 Vail Resorts, Inc. (2015) Investor Presentation 2015 55 Vail Resorts, Inc. (2015) Investor Presentation 2015 56 Vail Resorts, Inc. (2015) Form 10-K 2015 (Investor Presentation 2015) (Investor Presentation 2015)
  • 17. 17  Potential goodwill or other intangible asset impairment Vail Resorts acquired Canyons Resort in March 2013 and bought Park City Mountain Resort in September 2014. Vail Resorts signed a 50-year lease with six 50-year renewable options for Canyons Resort, including annual payments of $25 million. The lease payment will increase each year based upon the CPI index less 1%, with a base of 2%.57 Thus, with increasing lease payments, the company would struggle to meet lease payments if it does not increase its cash flow from operations year over year. Also, the lease requires Vail Resorts to pay the previous operator, Talisker, 42% of the amount which exceeds EBITDA by $35 million at these two resorts. The $35 million will increase annually based upon the CPI index minus a 10% adjustment for any capital improvements or investments made by Vail.58 Thus, Vail’s inability to capitalize on synergies from these or future acquisitions is a real risk facing the firm; however, Vail’s historical success of integrating resorts into its existing capital structure has not posed a legitimate threat in the past. Vail Resorts must generate consistent operating results at these two resorts to maintain strict lease terms; however, this risk is mitigated by the firms potential cash flow generation from its various other resorts. Conclusion Vail Resorts has viable growth strategies which have been successful in the recent past and are currently reaping benefits for the company. I expect these strategies to be successful in the future if Vail continues to make smart and strategic acquisitions. The Epic Discovery Program seems like a rational investment which will reduce the risk of the company’s seasonality. Corporate Employees Management Team Although Vail’s management has seen many changes in recent years, including two in 2015, the majority of its positions have been filled with internal hires. For example, Patricia Campbell was recently appointed President of the Mountain Division, but she has worked as a Chief Operating Officer at two of Vail’s resorts from 2007-2013, and she served as a Senior Vice President before being appointed as a President. James C. Odonell, Senior Vice President of Lodging and Real Estate, has held numerous positions with the company since 2002. Seven out of ten of Vail’s current executives have held at least one other position with the firm before being appointed as an executive. 57 Vail Resorts, Inc. (2015) Form 10-K 2015 58 Vail Resorts, Inc. (2015) Form 10-K 2015
  • 18. 18 Vail Resorts maintains an extremely low ISS Governance Quickscore. This score ranks a firm’s governance in regards to its risk. A score of 1 represents extremely low governance risk, while a score of 10 represents very high governance risk. The score is determined through analysis over four pillars: Audit Risk and Oversight, Shareholder Rights, Board Structure, and Compensation/Remuneration. Vail currently has a score of 1/10, indicating minimal governance risk.59 Chairman of the Board and CEO Robert Katz worked as the Lead Director from June 2003 to July of 2006 when he was appointed as Chief Executive Officer. He became Chairman of the Board in March 2009. He also has served on the board of directors since 1996, and has been involved with Vail since 1991.60 Katz has experience in private equity, as he associated with Apollo Management L.P. since its founding in 1990, becoming a senior partner prior to being appointed as CEO with Vail.61 He currently holds 1,227,795 shares of common stock, which reflects largest portion of insider stock and 3.3% of its class.62 Mr. Katz, an avid skier, has made a substantial impact on Vail’s operations since being appointed CEO. He has lead the introduction of the Epic Pass and spearheaded Vail’s acquisition and capital investment strategy. Dylan Machan writes for Barron’s, “Katz is transforming the business of skiing”.63 This research provides positive support for Vail’s management. Although the company has appointed many of its executives in recent years, CEO Robert Katz has demonstrated effective and innovative leadership, and management’s risk ranks very low. 59 ISS Governance. ISS Governance Quickscore Summary 28 September 2015. Retrieved 5 November 2015 60 Vailresorts.com, Senior Executives. Retrieved from vailresorts.com 61 Vail Resorts, Inc. (2015) Form 10-K 2015 62 Vail Resorts, Inc. (2015) Form 10-K 2015 63 Machan, D. (2014, November 15). Vail Resorts' CEO: Transforming the Business of Skiing Year Appointed Position Robert A. Katz 2006 Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer Patricia A. Campbell 2015 President, Mountain Division Michael Z. Barkin 2013 Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer Mark R. Gasta 2011 Executive Vice President, Chief People Officer Christopher E. Jarnot 2008 Executive Vice President , Chief Operating Officer Kirsten A. Lynch 2011 Executive Vice President, Chief Marketing Officer David T. Shapiro 2015 Executive Vice President, General Counsel and Secretary Robert N. Urwiler 2006 Executive Vice President, Chief Information Officer James C. O'Donnell 2014 Senior Vice President, Lodging and Real Estate Mark L. Schoppet 2010 Senior Vice President, Controller and Chief Accounting Officer Executives Vail Resorts 1/10 ISS Governance QuickScore Pillars Board Structure 1 Shareholder Rights 2 Compensation 1 Audit Risk and Oversight 1
  • 19. 19 Management Compensation Vail’s executive compensation program is based on a pay-for-performance model, which the company hopes will “reward our executive officers and senior management for sustained, high-level performance over the short and long-term as demonstrated by measurable, company-wide performance metrics and individual contributions that are consistent with our overall growth strategy and achievement of goals”.64 This model is beneficial for shareholders, because Vail’s executives are heavily incentivized to make sure the company performs well. The table below contains the compensation breakdown for Vail Resort’s three highest paid executives: Robert A. Katz, Blaise T. Carrig and Michael Z. Barkin. (2015 10-K) The company’s executive compensation policy emphasizes “pay-for-performance” in hopes of incentivizing management to generate value for shareholders and strive for excellent results. Annual incentive awards are driven by the EBITDA for lodging and mountain segments.65 A Compensation Committee is organized by Vail Resorts to set executive compensation for each year. The committee utilizes a third party consultant, Aon, to analyze market data and peer group performance to help determine the target pay level for Vail Resort’s executives. There are not enough publicly traded companies to create a pure competitor set for Vail’s primary revenue generator, its resort division. So, the company uses a vast peer group of leisure, travel, gaming and 64 Vail Resorts, Inc. (2015) Form 10-K 2015 65 Vail Resorts, Inc. (2015) Form 10-K 2015 Fiscal Year Salary ($) Bonus ($) Stock Awards ($) Option/Share Appreciation Right Awards ($) Non-Equity Incentive Plan Compensation ($) All Other Compensation ($) Total ($) Salary % Change since 2013 Total Compensation % Change from 2013 Robert A. Katz 2015 846,281 - 2,231,712 1,890,372 341,332 34,726 5,344,423 6.0% 9.7% Chairman 2014 822,602 - 262,910 3,652,979 262,988 29,987 5,031,466 CEO 2013 798,553 - 255,228 3,529,457 255,249 33,563 4,872,050 Blaise T. Carrig 2015 427,784 - 231,935 626,957 207,046 17,593 1,511,315 5.7% 12.8% Pres. - Mountain 2014 415,815 - 675,853 605,711 159,525 37,297 1,894,201 2013 404,889 - 146,593 608,480 162,572 17,612 1,340,146 - Michael Z. Barkin 2015 382,187 - 187,852 462,029 157,014 19,812 1,208,894 33.3% 3.6% Exec. VP 2014 334,046 - 103,552 346,673 106,479 7,943 898,693 CFO 2013 286,769 - 565,422 229,457 82,315 3,313 1,167,276 Summary Compensation Table - Highest Paid Executives
  • 20. 20 hospitality companies.66 In addition to market and peer group data, the Compensation Committee takes into account individual performance and the ability to meet firm wide goals.67 Overall, 85% and 70% of the CEO’s and executive employee’s compensation respectively is determined by variable components, such as operating performance and/or stock price. Summary of Ownership Vail Resorts, founded in 1962, filed for its initial public offering on February 7, 1997. The company issued 5 million shares of common stock at a price of $22.00 per share. The company utilized $86.6 million in proceeds from the offering to redeem senior subordinated notes due in 2004. The remainder of proceeds were used for general corporate purposes.68 Vail’s ownership largely lies outside of inside ownership. Currently, 6% of shares are held by company insiders, with CEO Robert Katz holding 3% of shares.69 Institutions and mutual fund owners hold 94% of shares, with BAMCO Inc. owning 5,376, 563 shares, or 14.77%.70 During the last quarter, institutional investors sold a net of 3,387,300 shares and insiders sold 23, 726. Listed below are Vail Resort’s top shareholders. (Yahoo Finance) Management Key Goals and Analysis 20137172 Goals 66 Vail Resorts, Inc. (2015) Form 10-K 2015 67 Vail Resorts, Inc. (2015) Form 10-K 2015 68 Vail Resorts, Inc. (1997) Form 10-K 1997 69 Yahoo Finance. Retrieved 5 November 2015 70 Yahoo Finance. Retrieved 5 November 2015 71 Vail Resorts, Inc. (2013) Form 10-K 2013 72 Vail Resorts, Inc. (2013) Earnings Report 2013 Shares % O/S Value Reported BAMCO Inc. 2,901,090 14.77% 587,120,663$ 30-Jun-15 T. Rowe Price Associates 2,901,090 7.97% 316,799,019$ 30-Jun-15 Southeastern Asset Management Inc. 2,387,058 6.56% 260,666,726$ 30-Jun-15 The Vanguard Group, Inc. 2,371,560 6.52% 258,974,344$ 30-Jun-15 FMR, LLC 1,787,951 4.91% 195,244,243$ 30-Jun-15 Jennison Associates LLC 1,408,261 3.87% 153,782,096$ 30-Jun-15 Columbia Wagner Asset Management 1,194,862 3.28% 130,478,926$ 30-Jun-15 BlackRock Institutional Trust 908,135 2.50% 99,168,339$ 30-Jun-15 BlackRock Fund Advisors 901,002 2.48% 98,389,415$ 30-Jun-15 Waddell & Reed Financial Inc. 886,200 2.43% 96,773,037$ 30-Jun-15 Major Institutional Shareholders
  • 21. 21  Invest approximately $130 to $140 million of CAPEX to maintain high quality standards of resorts and provide discretionary improvements  Expect net income to be in a range of $37.0 million to $55.0 million for calendar year 2014  Improve season pass sales by integrating Canyon’s, Afton Alps and Mount Brighton into pass products, marketing efforts and operations  Build and open more summer activities as part of the Epic Discovery program 20147374 Achievements/Shortfalls  Realized 20.1% increase in season pass revenue  Utilized CAPEX to construct new high-speed lifts and Vail and Breckenridge  Completed zip lines for Epic Discovery during Fiscal 2014  Missed net income expectations by $8.5 million Goals  Invest approximately $85 to $95 million for resort capital expenditures in calendar year 2015  Continue to grow season pass sales, which represent the “best value in the industry,” and create growth from acquisition of Australian resort, Perisher  Expect net income to be in a range of $75.7 million to $100.5 million for Fiscal 2014  Continue to develop the Epic Discovery program through capital investment 20157576 Achievements/Shortfalls  Beat net income expectations, $114.8 million for fiscal 2015  Continued to drive growth and loyalty through season pass revenue, increasing 20.9% from the previous year  Increased Epic Australia Pass 14% over sales of the Perisher Freedom Pass in 2014  Increased total skier visits by 6.5%, driven by the addition of Park City and strong Colorado turnout Goals  Expect to spend between $110 and $115 million in resort CAPEX during the 2015 calendar year  Plan to finish $50 million transformation plan to connect Park City and Canyons, which will create the largest ski resort in the United States  Target efforts to move destination guests to season pass products, bolstered by expanded presence in Australia and Utah  Expect net income to be between $118 and $144 million in Fiscal 2016 73 Vail Resorts, Inc. (2014) Form 10-K 2014 74 Vail Resorts, Inc. (2014) Earnings Report 2014 75 Vail Resorts, Inc. (2013) Form 10-K 2015 76 Vail Resorts, Inc. (2015) Earnings Report 2015
  • 22. 22  Construct alpine coaster and canopy tour at Vail and Heavenly resorts as part of the Epic Discovery program, which is expected to be operational in fiscal 2016  Expect Perisher to contribute to operational results during first and fourth quarters, which is the off-season for U.S. resorts Vail Resorts has significantly expanded its resort offering during the last few years by acquiring Park City, Canyons, and Perisher resorts. Overall, the company’s “say-do” ratio has been very good over the past three years, bolstered by the company’s successful acquisition of these resorts, capital investment, and efforts to create the Epic Discovery program. The company fell short of one of its major goals for 2014, as it missed its net income estimate range by $8.5 million. This does not seem to be a cause for operational concern, because it was a result of near record snowfall in the Tahoe region. Net income was also lowered by a loss on the extinguishment of debt of $10.8 million.77 Employee Overview Vail Resorts currently employs approximately 5,200 year-round employees, and during the peak of the mountain segment operating season, the company employs approximately 21,300 seasonal employees. Also, Vail Resorts employees approximately 300 year-round and 100 seasonal employees for the owners of managed hotel properties. None of Vail’s workers are unionized.78 Vail Resorts has increased its number of year-round employees by 900 since 2012 and expanded its season workforce by 5,100.79 This is driven by Vail’s recent acquisitions. The company has various types of employees, ranging from year-round to seasonal and holiday positions. Employees are hired in various capacities, ranging from ski instructors to travel coordinators and store managers. Vail Resorts considers relations with employees to be “good”.80 The commencement of Vail’s Epic Discovery program will promote summer tourism at Breckenridge, Vail Mountain, and Heavenly resorts, and Vail Resorts will necessarily begin to hire more seasonal employees in the coming years to support activities such as canopy tours, tubing, zip lines, and mountain coasters.81 On December 2, 2015, Vail Resorts announced a $30 million commitment to new employee housing at its mountain resorts.82 This is significant, because it offers affordable housing to seasonal and year-round employees and the ability to work for the company long-term. 77 Vail Resorts, Inc. (2014) Earnings Report 2014 78 Vail Resorts, Inc. (2015) Form 10-K 2015 79 Vail Resorts, Inc. (2015) Form 10-K 2012 80 Vail Resorts, Inc. (2015) Form 10-K 2015 81 Vail Resorts, Inc. (2015) Investor Presentation 2015 82 Vail Corporate (Vailresorts.com). Retrieved December 5, 2015
  • 23. 23 Generally, Vail’s resorts reside in areas with high property value, hence employees are often forced to live far away from the resorts. Employee Satisfaction and Benefits Glassdoor holds a database of company reviews, CEO approval ratings, salary reports, benefits reviews, and other metrics. Feedback from 390 employees has assigned Vail Resorts a rating of three out of five stars. Popular positives mentioned in regards to working for the company include the employee benefits, such as a free ski pass and a great work-life balance. Year round full-time employees enjoy the culture and employee development offered by the company. The primary complaints of Vail’s employees are low pay and the lack of cost of living based salary adjustments. Vail Resorts seems to be making an effort to remedy employee’s dissatisfaction for salary, particularly with entry-level jobs. The company announced in June of 2015 that it will raise the minimum wage for entry-level jobs to $10 per hour. CEO Robert Katz wrote the following in a letter to employees, “We are taking this step because it is incumbent on us to do the right thing for our employees as well as remain competitive as an employer”.83 All of the following benefits are available to year round full-time employees. Seasonal full- time employees only receive the benefits colored blue.  Medical, dental, and vision insurance  Employee assistance program: free counselling  401(k) with 50% match of the first 6% employees contribute  Free season pass  Discounted rates for auto, homeowners, and pet insurance, critical illness and accident plans, and legal plans  Additional perks: adoption assistance, child care, lodging and retail discounts, ski and snowboard privileges, healthy eating and tobacco cessation programs, and tuition discounts  Paid time off and sick time  Flexible spending healthcare account  Life and disability insurance The benefits listed below are offered to seasonal part-time and holiday help employees.  401(k) with 50% match of the first 6% employees contribute  Employee assistance program: free counselling  Discounted rates for auto, homeowners, and pet insurance  Lift ticket coupons and lesson discounts  Additional perks: adoption assistance, child care, lodging and retail discounts, ski and snowboard privileges, healthy eating and tobacco cessation programs, and tuition discounts 83 Hickey, C. (2015, June 19). Vail Resorts to boost starting minimum wage to $10 an hour
  • 24. 24 Competitive Advantages Epic Pass The culmination of Vail’s advantages is demonstrated by the Epic Pass, which gives consumers season long access to Vail’s resorts and ten other resorts worldwide. This differentiator does not have not a comparable program in the industry and is a great buffer to poor snow seasons, because Vail Resorts receives 40% of lift ticket revenue from the Epic Pass before each season starts.84 Market Leader Vail Resorts has the unique positon of being a market leader and commander of acquisitions, which puts the company in a position to obtain the most lucrative properties.85 Intrawest Corporation is Vail’s closest competitor and maintains only 8.5% of market share by revenue.86 High Income Guests The company’s high income customers are a significant advantage, because a high-end demographic can provide future resiliency to economic fluctuations and the opportunity for premium pricing, because these consumers are more likely to continue to spend during average changes in consumer spending habits because of their large income. Many of Vail’s customers fall in this category, as destination guests made up 59% of resort visits during the 2014/2015 season. Premium Pricing Vail resorts offers 8 of the top 20 most expensive lift tickets in America, with Vail and Beaver Creek tying for the most expensive during the 2014/2015 season at $145 for a day pass.87 Premium pricing allows Vail to increase revenue through the acquisition of 84 Vail Resorts, Inc. (2015) Form 10-K 2015 85 Vail Resorts: Promising Shareholders Higher Returns. (2015, April 13). Retrieved October 6, 2015 86 Alvarez, A. (2014, December 1). Ski & Snowboard Resorts in the US: Market Research Report. Retrieved September 28, 2015 87 Leonard, B. (2015, February 3). The Most Expensive Lift Tickets in America. Retrieved December 14, 2015 Epic Pass Market Leader High Income Guests Premium Pricing Facility Improvements
  • 25. 25 destination guests and maintain the resort’s branding as being premium destinations for high income customers. Facility Improvements Clearly, Vail is committed to upgrading its business and hopes to do so in the future barring a significant economic downturn, prolonged poor precipitation seasons, or another realized risk. The company improves guest experience, increases snowmaking efficiency, and offers new revenue generators such as the Epic Discovery program through facility investment. With $110 million in planned expenditures for facility improvements in FY16, Vail looks to continue to capitalize on this differentiator. Financial and Ratio Analysis (All figures in millions of the reported currency, except ratios and % of total values) Income Statement Vail Resorts is in a mature stage of its business cycle, but the company is experiencing increasing growth, driven by recent acquisitions and increased lift ticket sales. With revenue increasing 11% during the last two fiscal years and gross margin increasing from 20.5% in FY13 to 24.8% in FY15, it is clear that Vail’s growth is accommodated by increased efficiency from its acquisitions. Financial statements are listed on the next page.
  • 26. 26 (S&P Capital IQ) (S&P Capital IQ) Income Statement For the Fiscal Period Ending 12 months Jul-31-2013 12 months Jul-31-2014 12 months Jul-31-2015 Currency USD USD USD Revenue 1,120.8 1,254.6 1,399.9 Other Revenue - - - Total Revenue 1,120.8 1,254.6 1,399.9 Cost Of Goods Sold 891.1 984.4 1,052.9 Gross Profit 229.7 270.3 347.0 Depreciation & Amort. 132.7 140.6 149.1 Other Operating Exp., Total 132.7 140.6 149.1 Operating Income 97.0 129.7 197.9 Interest Expense (39.0) (64.0) (51.2) Interest and Invest. Income 0.4 0.4 0.2 Net Interest Exp. (38.6) (63.6) (51.0) Income/(Loss) from Affiliates 0.9 1.3 0.8 EBT Excl. Unusual Items 59.3 67.3 147.7 Merger & Related Restruct. Charges (5.5) (9.8) (5.5) Gain (Loss) On Sale Of Assets 5.5 (1.2) (1.9) Legal Settlements - - 16.4 Other Unusual Items - (12.2) (7.4) EBT Incl. Unusual Items 59.2 44.1 149.3 Income Tax Expense 21.6 15.9 34.7 Earnings from Cont. Ops. 37.6 28.2 114.6 Net Income to Company 37.6 28.2 114.6 Minority Int. in Earnings 0.1 0.3 0.1 Net Income 37.7 28.5 114.8 Key Financial Stats For the Fiscal Period Ending 12 months Jul-31-2013A 12 months Jul-31-2014A 12 months Jul-31-2015A Currency USD USD USD Total Revenue 1,120.8 1,254.6 1,399.9 Growth Over Prior Year 9.4% 11.9% 11.6% Gross Profit 229.7 270.3 347.0 Margin % 20.5% 21.5% 24.8% EBITDA 229.7 270.3 347.0 Margin % 20.5% 21.5% 24.8% EBIT 97.0 129.7 197.9 Margin % 8.7% 10.3% 14.1% Earnings from Cont. Ops. 37.6 28.2 114.6 Margin % 3.4% 2.2% 8.2% Net Income 37.7 28.5 114.8 Margin % 3.4% 2.3% 8.2%
  • 27. 27 Balance Sheet Vail Resort’s decrease in cash from $138.6M at the end of FY13 to $35.5M at the end of FY15 is explained by Vail’s use of cash for facility improvements, such as the acquisition of Park City Mountain Resort, and the $50M investment to connect Park City and Canyons resorts in 2015. As of March 13, 2015, Vail Resorts paid off all debt used to acquire Park City Mountain Resort for $182.5M in September 2015.88 (S&P Capital IQ) 88 Gorrell, M. (2015, March 13). Vail pays off Park City Mountain debt, reports earnings bump. Retrieved December 16, 2015 Balance Sheet Balance Sheet as of: Jul-31-2013 Jul-31-2014 Jul-31-2015 Currency USD USD USD ASSETS Cash And Equivalents 138.6 44.4 35.5 Total Cash & ST Investments 138.6 44.4 35.5 Accounts Receivable 79.0 96.0 114.0 Total Receivables 79.0 96.0 114.0 Inventory 68.3 67.2 73.5 Prepaid Exp. 0.4 0.2 0.3 Deferred Tax Assets, Curr. 25.2 29.2 28.0 Restricted Cash 12.6 13.2 13.0 Other Current Assets 19.3 24.9 23.9 Total Current Assets 343.5 275.0 288.1 Gross Property, Plant & Equipment 2,325.1 2,411.4 2,762.1 Accumulated Depreciation (1,155.8) (1,263.4) (1,375.8) Net Property, Plant & Equipment 1,169.3 1,148.0 1,386.3 Long-term Investments 7.1 7.5 7.4 Goodw ill 381.7 378.1 500.4 Other Intangibles 121.3 117.5 144.1 Loans Receivable Long-Term - - - Deferred Charges, LT 90.2 89.8 33.4 Other Long-Term Assets 195.2 157.9 129.8 Total Assets 2,308.3 2,173.8 2,489.6 LIABILITIES Accounts Payable 61.4 71.8 62.1 Accrued Exp. 100.1 91.6 103.9 Curr. Port. of LT Debt 1.0 1.0 10.2 Curr. Income Taxes Payable 42.8 34.0 57.2 Unearned Revenue, Current 93.8 110.6 145.9 Other Current Liabilities 14.3 15.3 19.3 Total Current Liabilities 313.3 324.2 398.6 Long-Term Debt 795.9 625.6 806.7 Unearned Revenue, Non-Current 131.8 128.8 126.1 Def. Tax Liability, Non-Curr. 118.3 128.6 147.8 Other Non-Current Liabilities 111.1 131.9 129.8 Total Liabilities 1,470.4 1,339.0 1,609.0 Common Stock 0.4 0.4 0.4 Additional Paid In Capital 598.7 612.3 623.5 Retained Earnings 418.0 401.5 440.7 Treasury Stock (193.2) (193.2) (193.2) Comprehensive Inc. and Other (0.1) (0.2) (4.9) Total Common Equity 823.9 820.8 866.6 Minority Interest 14.0 14.0 14.0 Total Equity 837.9 834.8 880.6 Total Liabilities And Equity 2,308.3 2,173.8 2,489.6
  • 28. 28 Capital Structure In May 2015, Vail Resorts borrowed $185M under the revolver portion of its Credit Agreement to fund the acquisition of Perisher Resort.89 This accounts for the company’s substantial increase in total debt from FY14 to the end of FY15. As of July 31, 2015, Vail had minimum outstanding lease payments of the $292.0M, which was driven by Vail’s 50-year lease signed for Canyons Resort in May 2013. (S&P Capital IQ) 89 Vail Resorts, Inc. (2015) Form 10-K 2015 Capital Structure Data For the Fiscal Period Ending Currency USD USD USD Units Millions % of Total Millions % of Total Millions % of Total Total Debt 796.9 48.7% 626.6 42.9% 816.8 48.1% Total Common Equity 823.9 50.4% 820.8 56.2% 866.6 51.1% Total Minority Interest 14.0 0.9% 14.0 1.0% 14.0 0.8% Total Capital 1,634.8 100.0% 1,461.4 100.0% 1,697.4 100.0% Debt Summary Data For the Fiscal Period Ending Currency USD USD USD Units Millions % of Total Millions % of Total Millions % of Total Total Revolving Credit 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 185.0 22.6% Total Term Loans - - - - 250.0 30.6% Total Senior Bonds and Notes 99.2 12.4% 99.0 15.8% 57.5 7.0% Total Subordinated Bonds and Notes 390.0 48.9% 215.0 34.3% 0 0.0% Total Capital Leases 307.7 38.6% 312.7 49.9% 324.4 39.7% Total Principal Due 796.9 100.0% 626.6 100.0% 816.8 100.0% 12 months Jul-31-2013 12 months Jul-31-2014 12 months Jul-31-2015 12 months Jul-31-2013 12 months Jul-31-2014 12 months Jul-31-2015
  • 29. 29 Ratios All of Vail’s profitability ratios reflect positive growth, as the company has improved its ROA and ROE following acquisitions, lift ticket sales increases, and investment in facility improvements. Along with these trends, Vail Resorts margins have increased for similar reasons. The company’s capital structure has remained fairly constant during the last three years. Vails Resort’s quick ratio has decreased from 0.7x in FY13 to 0.4x in FY15. While this may seem alarming, I expect the company’s liquidity to replenish, because substantial cash was used to pay off the acquisition of Park City Mountain Resort, and the company’s growing margins and net income will help replenish the firm’s cash supply. (S&P Capital IQ) Ratios For the Fiscal Period Ending 12 months Jul-31-2013 12 months Jul-31-2014 12 months Jul-31-2015 Profitability Return on Assets % 2.9% 3.6% 5.3% Return on Capital % 4.1% 5.2% 7.8% Return on Equity % 4.5% 3.4% 13.4% Return on Common Equity % 4.6% 3.5% 13.6% Margin Analysis Gross Margin % 20.5% 21.5% 24.8% EBITDA Margin % 20.5% 21.5% 24.8% EBITA Margin % 8.9% 10.7% 14.5% EBIT Margin % 8.7% 10.3% 14.1% Net Income Margin % 3.4% 2.3% 8.2% Net Income Avail. for Common Margin % 3.4% 2.3% 8.2% Normalized Net Income Margin % 3.3% 3.4% 6.6% Levered Free Cash Flow Margin % 11.8% 5.0% 12.6% Unlevered Free Cash Flow Margin % 13.9% 8.2% 14.9% Asset Turnover Total Asset Turnover 0.5x 0.6x 0.6x Fixed Asset Turnover 1.0x 1.1x 1.1x Accounts Receivable Turnover 15.5x 14.3x 13.3x Inventory Turnover 13.3x 14.5x 15.0x Short Term Liquidity Current Ratio 1.1x 0.8x 0.7x Quick Ratio 0.7x 0.4x 0.4x Cash from Ops. to Curr. Liab. 0.7x 0.8x 0.8x Avg. Days Sales Out. 23.6 25.5 27.4 Avg. Days Inventory Out. 27.5 25.1 24.4 Avg. Days Payable Out. 24.1 24.7 23.1 Avg. Cash Conversion Cycle 27.0 25.9 28.7 Long Term Solvency Total Debt/Equity 95.1% 75.1% 92.8% Total Debt/Capital 48.7% 42.9% 48.1% LT Debt/Equity 95.0% 74.9% 91.6% LT Debt/Capital 48.7% 42.8% 47.5% Total Liabilities/Total Assets 63.7% 61.6% 64.6%
  • 30. 30 Stock Price Analysis (S&P Capital IQ) The equity’s sharp spike in price on March 12, 2015 was a result of a positive earnings report. Vail Resorts reported quarterly earnings of 3.1 EPS, which beat analyst expectations by 34.14%.90 The company also increased its quarterly dividend by 50%, resulting in a stock price increase of 9.72% to $93.27. Following the announcement of the company’s acquisition of Perisher Resort in Australia for $135M, Vail Resort’s price increased from $100.45 to $107.67 on April 8, 2015.91 The deal for Perisher was closed on June 30, 2015. The company recently released a positive quarterly earnings report on December 7, 2015, beating analyst’s EPS estimates by 6.75%, which resulted in a 2.93% price increase per share.92 Vail Resorts is currently trading near its all-time high of $130.42 (12/15/15), and the stock has appreciated near 44% YTD.93 90 Bloomberg. Retrieved December 14, 2015 91 Bloomberg. Retrieved December 14, 2015 92 Bloomberg. Retrieved December 14, 2015 93 Bloomberg. Retrieved December 14, 2015
  • 31. 31 (S&P Capital IQ) During the last year, the Leisure and Travel Index has beaten the S&P 500, and Vail Resorts has significantly outperformed both indexes. Valuation Vail Resorts is tricky to value, because while the company has shown solid organic growth, driven by a 16.2% average increases in year-over-year lift ticket sales since 2013, a primary driver for this growth has been acquisitions of other resorts.94 Hence, this valuation reflects the benefits of recent acquisitions the company has made: Canyons Resort in 2013, Park City Mountain Resort in 2014, and Perisher Resort in 2015. This model does not take into account future acquisitions, because it is uncertain and not feasible to predict, although it is likely that the company will continue to add value through strategic acquisitions. Three valuation techniques are utilized to determine the value of the firm: enterprise value multiples, price-earnings multiples, and discounted cash flow analysis. The two multiples valuations include the use of public comparable companies. The final projected stock price of the company is calculated with equal weights in the projected cash flow, enterprise value, and price-earnings calculations. All historical financial statements are obtained from S&P Capital IQ. Discounted Cash Flow Analysis This method for valuing Vail Resorts consists of projecting future revenue and cash flows. The key driver of this model is the growth of the mountain segment for Vail Resorts, which has increased from contributing to 64.5% of Vail’s total revenue in 2011 to 78.9% in 94 Vail Resorts, Inc. (2015) Form 10-K 2015
  • 32. 32 2015.9596 Below is a model that shows the breakdown of Vail’s revenue segments, with a specific emphasis on its mountain segment. Lodging and real estate revenues have been relatively unpredictable during the last five years and account for a small percentage of overall revenues, so average historical growth rates are used to project future growth or decline in revenues. For similar reasons, averages are used to project growth for ski school, dining, and retail/rental divisions of the mountain segment. Management emphasizes that Vail could expect to see 22% year-over- year lift ticket growth in FY 2016 in its recent earnings report, hence that metric is used to project lift ticket growth.97 This growth is propelled by 3% to 6% price increases and the addition of Park City, Canyons, and Perisher resorts.98 For future lift ticket growth, a high but declining growth percentage is utilized, because it is unlikely that the company will maintain such high growth rates unless the company closes a deal on another acquisition. “Other” revenue for Vail Resorts includes sales from its new Epic Discovery Program, which 95 Vail Resorts, Inc. (2015) Form 10-K 2015 96 Vail Resorts, Inc. (2013) Form 10-K 2013 97 Vail Resorts, Inc. (2015) Earnings Report 2015 98 Vail Resorts, Inc. (2015) Investor Presentation 2015 Revenue by Segment 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Dollars in millions Mountain Lift Tickets 342.5 342.5 390.8 447.3 536.5 655 792 950 1,131 1,335 Ski School 83.8 84.3 95.3 109.4 126.2 140 155 172 191 212 Dining 68.1 68.4 81.2 89.9 101 115 131 149 170 194 Retail/rental 174.3 181.8 199.4 210.4 219.153 232 246 260 276 292 Other 83.5 89.7 100.9 106.6 121.2 139 167 197 226 260 Total 752.2 766.6 867.5 963.6 1,104.1 1,281.1 1,491.5 1,729.0 1,994.1 2,292.5 % of total 64.5% 74.8% 77.4% 76.8% 78.9% 80.7% 82.5% 84.0% 85.4% 86.7% Lodging 214.7 210.6 211.0 242.3 254.6 266.1 278.2 290.9 304.1 317.9 % of total 18.4% 20.6% 18.8% 19.3% 18.2% 16.8% 15.4% 14.1% 13.0% 12.0% Real Estate 200.2 47.2 42.3 48.8 41.3 39.9 38.6 37.3 36.0 34.8 % of total 17.2% 4.6% 3.8% 3.9% 3.0% 2.5% 2.1% 1.8% 1.5% 1.3% Total 1167.0 1024.4 1120.8 1254.6 1399.9 1587.2 1808.3 2057.1 2334.2 2645.2 Mountain Segment Revenue 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Dollars in millions Lift Ticket 342.5 342.5 390.8 447.3 536.5 655 792 950 1,131 1,335 % change (0.0%) 14.1% 14.4% 19.9% 22.0% 21.0% 20.0% 19.0% 18.0% Ski School 83.8 84.3 95.3 109.4 126.2 140 155 172 191 212 % change 0.6% 13.0% 14.9% 15.3% 10.9% 10.9% 10.9% 10.9% 10.9% Dinning 68.1 68.4 81.2 89.9 101 115 131 149 170 194 % change 0.5% 18.7% 10.7% 12.4% 13.9% 13.9% 13.9% 13.9% 13.9% Retail/Rental 174.3 181.8 199.4 210.4 219.153 232 246 260 276 292 % change 4.3% 9.7% 5.5% 4.2% 5.9% 5.9% 5.9% 5.9% 5.9% Other 83.5 89.7 100.9 106.6 121.2 139 167 197 226 260 % change 7.4% 12.5% 5.7% 13.7% 15.0% 20.0% 17.5% 15.0% 15.0% Total 752 767 868 964 1,104 1,281 1,492 1,729 1,994 2,293 Lodging and Real Estate Revenue 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Dollars in millions Lodging 214.7 210.6 211.0 242.3 254.6 266.1 278.2 290.9 304.1 317.9 % change (1.9%) 0.2% 14.8% 5.1% 4.5% 4.5% 4.5% 4.5% 4.5% Real Estate 200.2 47.2 42.3 48.8 41.3 39.9 38.6 37.3 36.0 34.8 % change (76.4%) (10.3%) 15.3% (15.3%) (3.4%) (3.4%) (3.4%) (3.4%) (3.4%) Total 414.9 257.8 253.3 291.1 295.9 306.1 316.8 328.1 340.1 352.7 Projections Projections Projections Historicals ending July 31 Historicals ending July 31 Historicals ending July 31
  • 33. 33 provides summer entertainment at Vail Mountain, Breckenridge, and Heavenly resorts. Hence, bullish expectations in future growth for this division are seen in the model as the company expects to invest around $50M in the program through FY18; however, the growth estimates are rough because of lack of guidance for expected revenue growth for this project.99 Vail Resorts combines its cost of goods sold and other expenses into one lump sum on its income statement, hence it is difficult to split up costs. I expect overall expenses to decrease over the next year, as the company reduces its investment allocation in Epic Discovery and Canyons and Park City resorts and expects synergies from the combination of the two resorts.100 The income statement projections for Vail are listed below. All items which cannot be reliably predicted are assumed to not change during the next five years and are referenced to FY2015 results. Depreciation is driven as a percentage of fixed assets. A weighted average cost of capital of 7.8% is utilized for Vail Resorts. Vail’s weighted average cost of capital is derived from information regarding its capital structure, beta, tax rate, risk free rate, and the expected market return, which are all acquired from the company’s most recent annual report and Bloomberg.101102 No acquisitions or unforeseen 99 Vail Resorts, Inc. (2015) Investor Presentation 2015 100 Vail Resorts, Inc. (2015) Investor Presentation 2015 101 Bloomberg. Retrieved December 1, 2015 102 Vail Resorts, Inc. (2015) Earnings Report 2015 Income Statement Our Company 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Dollars in Millions Revenue 1,167.0 1,024.4 1,120.8 1,254.6 1,399.9 1,587.2 1,808.3 2,057.1 2,334.2 2,645.2 Total Revenue 1,167.0 1,024.4 1,120.8 1,254.6 1,399.9 1,587.2 1,808.3 2,057.1 2,334.2 2,645.2 Combined segment operating exp. 947.4 836.0 891.1 984.4 1,052.9 1,174.5 1,320.1 1,481.1 1,680.6 1,904.6 % of sales 81.2% 81.6% 79.5% 78.5% 75.2% 74.0% 73.0% 72.0% 72.0% 72.0% EBITDA 219.6 188.4 229.7 270.3 347.0 412.7 488.2 576.0 653.6 740.7 Depreciation & Amortization 118.0 127.6 132.7 140.6 149.1 158.1 180.1 204.9 232.5 263.5 Amortization - - - - - - - - - - Other Operating Exp., Total 118.0 127.6 132.7 140.6 149.1 158.1 180.1 204.9 232.5 263.5 Operating Income 101.7 60.8 97.0 129.7 197.9 254.6 308.1 371.1 421.1 477.2 Interest Expense (33.6) (33.6) (39.0) (64.0) (51.2) (49.8) (44.3) (44.4) (40.9) (37.7) Interest & Investment Income 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.2 Net Interest Exp. (32.9) (33.1) (38.6) (63.6) (51.0) (49.8) (44.3) (44.4) (40.9) (37.7) Income/(Loss) from Affiliates 1.3 0.9 0.9 1.3 0.8 0 0 0 0 0 EBT Excl. Unusual Items 70.1 28.5 59.2 67.3 147.7 204.7 263.8 326.7 380.1 439.5 Merger & Related Restruct. Charges (4.1) - (5.5) (9.8) (5.5) 0 0 0 0 0 Gain (Loss) On Sale Of Assets (0.6) (1.5) 5.5 (1.2) (1.9) 0 0 0 0 0 Legal Settlements - - - - 16.4 0 0 0 0 0 Other Unusual Items (9.9) - - (12.2) (7.4) 0 0 0 0 0 EBT Incl. Unusual Items 55.5 27.0 59.2 44.1 149.3 204.7 263.8 326.7 380.1 439.5 Income Tax Expense 21.1 10.7 21.6 15.9 34.7 73.7 95.0 117.6 136.8 158.2 Earnings from Cont. Ops. 34.5 16.3 37.6 28.2 114.6 131.0 168.8 209.1 243.3 281.3 Net Income 34.5 16.3 37.6 28.2 114.6 131.0 168.8 209.1 243.3 281.3 Foregin Currency Adjustments 0.0 -0.3 0.2 -0.1 -4.7 -4.7 -4.7 -4.7 -4.7 -4.7 Comprehensive Income 34.5 16.1 37.8 28.1 109.9 126.3 164.1 204.4 238.6 276.6 Loss to Nonctrolling Interest 0.067 0.062 0.133 0.272 0.144 0.144 0.144 0.144 0.144 0.144 Comprehensive Net Income 34.5 16.1 37.9 28.4 110.0 126.4 164.3 204.5 238.7 276.7 Historicals ending July 31 Projections
  • 34. 34 future financing needs are taken into account in this calculation, which if realized could potentially effect Vail’s overall risk and capital structure. The present value of free cash flows through 2020 is calculated to be $1B. Two methods are used to calculate terminal value: perpetual growth and exit multiple methods. A perpetual growth rate of 2% is utilized, which is in-line with projected future growth for the industry.103 Also, an expected EV/EBIT ratio of 22.3x is used for the exit multiple method, which is derived from comparable company’s multiples. Hence, an average of the two methods gives a present value of the terminal value of $5.96B. An implied stock price of $165.3 is calculated as seen in the figure below. 103 Alvarez, A. (2014, December). Ski & Snowboard Resorts in the US: Market Research Report. Retrieved September 28, 2015 Vail Resorts WACC Cost of Debt Interest Rate 6.4% Tax Rate 36% Weight of Debt 16.9% Weighted Cost of Debt 0.7% Cost of Equity Risk Free Rate 2.22% Expected Market Return 9.36% Beta 0.89 Weight of Equity 83.1% Weighted Cost of Equity 7.1% Weight Average Cost of Capital 7.8% Discounted Cash Flow Dollars in M illions 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 After tax EBIT 131.0 168.8 209.1 243.3 281.3 Depreciation and amortization 158.1 180.1 204.9 232.5 263.5 Change in w orking capital 4.6 6.6 7.4 8.4 9.4 Capex 140.0 150.0 150.0 150.0 150.0 Free cash flow 144.6 192.4 256.6 317.4 385.4 PV of FCF 1,003.7 PV of Terminal Value 5,962.2 Implied Enterprise Value 6,965.9 Debt 816.8 Cash 35.5 Implied Market Value of Equity 6,184.5 Shares Outstanding 37.4 1 Year Target Price 165.3 Implied Stock Price
  • 35. 35 Multiples Analysis The average of public comparable company’s multiples should be used to value Vail Resorts using multiples analysis. The one pure comparable company for Vail is Intrawest Resorts, which is the only other public ski resort holding company traded in the United States. Hence, companies are utilized which give a broad exposure to values in the leisure and travel industry to create a more accurate average multiple. The comparable companies in the figure below reflect the following industries: luxury lodging, theme parks, country club, cruise line, and car racing. All of these industries are subject to cyclical consumer demand fluctuations as a result of consumer discretionary spending, like the ski and snowboard resort industry. The mean market cap for these companies is 5,300B, which is close to Vail Resorts at 4,300B.104 The average EV/EBITDA multiple for the set is 11.8x, and the average forward P/E ratio is 23.7x. If Vail Resorts is valued using the EV/EBITA comparable average of 11.8x and the 2016 EBITDA projection of $488.2M, this yields an implied enterprise value of $5,736.9B and an implied 1-yr stock price of $140.50. An average NTM P/E multiple for comparable companies of 23.7x and a projected 2017 EPS of $5.59 presents an implied 1-yr stock price of $132.24. 104 All comparable company information was retrieved from capitaliq.com. Information retrieved December 1, 2015 Vail Resorts Comp Set As of Dec 1, 2015 Market Capitalization TEV/Total Revenues LTM TEV/EBITDA LTM TEV/EBIT LTM P/Diluted EPS Before Extra LTM NTM TEV/Forward Total Revenue NTM TEV/Forward EBITDA NTM Forward P/E Starwood Hotels & Resorts Worldwide Inc. (NYSE:HOT) 12,114 4.3x 11.8x 15.1x 21.6x 2.28x 10.94x 22.29x Six Flags Entertainment Corporation (NYSE:SIX) 4,835 5.4x 15.9x 21.3x 43.9x 5.11x 12.98x 30.09x SeaWorld Entertainment, Inc. (NYSE:SEAS) 1,582 2.3x 9.1x 19.0x 43.9x 2.21x 8.18x 17.91x ClubCorp Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:MYCC) 1,148 2.1x 12.2x 28.6x 40.7x 1.98x 8.76x 32.80x Intrawest Resorts Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:SNOW) 388 1.5x 9.4x 24.6x NM 1.51x 7.59x 13.28x Hyatt Hotels Corporation (NYSE:H) 6,874 3.0x 12.8x 27.3x 27.1x 1.68x 9.77x 35.51x International Speedway Corp. (NasdaqGS:ISCA) 4,017 2.8x 8.8x 15.6x 32.2x 2.55x 8.15x 21.90x Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. (NYSE:RCL) 20,244 3.5x 14.0x 23.2x 35.7x 3.22x 11.96x 15.50x Vail Resorts Inc. (NYSE:MTN) 4,300 3.6x 14.7x 25.6x 38.5x 3.30x 5.64x 33.24x Summary Statistics Market Capitalization TEV/Total Revenues LTM TEV/EBITDA LTM TEV/EBIT LTM P/Diluted EPS Before Extra LTM NTM TEV/Forward Total Revenue NTM TEV/Forward EBITDA NTM Forward P/E High 20,244 5.4x 15.9x 28.6x 43.9x 5.1x 13.0x 35.5x Low 388 1.5x 8.8x 15.1x 21.6x 1.5x 7.6x 13.3x Mean 20,244 3.6x 11.8x 21.8x 35.0x 2.6x 9.8x 23.7x Median 4,426 2.9x 12.0x 22.3x 35.7x 2.2x 9.3x 22.1x NTM P/E Multiple 23.7x 2017 EPS $5.59 Implied 2016 Stock Price $132.24 EV/EBITDA Multiple 11.8x 2016 EBITDA 488.2 Implied 2016 EV 5,736.9 Debt 688.9 Cash 94.4 Implied Market Value of Equity 5,142.4 Shares Outstanding 36.6 Implied 2016 Stock Price $140.50 P/E Valuation EV/EBITDA Valuation Multiples Valuation
  • 36. 36 Sensitivity Analysis Sensitivity analysis is conducted to determine how the implied stock price will be affected by key valuation drivers for Vail Resorts. Incremental growth for revenue segments and operating expenses as a percentage of sales are varied by 1% in upside and downside cases to sensitize performance from operations. Other important valuation metrics specific to DCF and multiples valuation are adjusted to project downside and upside cases. The base case yields a 12.4% upside from the current stock price, while the upside case projects 29.4% upside, and the downside case reflects 0.9% downside. Assumptions and target prices generated by each model are found on the following page.
  • 37. 37 Conclusion The below figure shows the valuation range for Vail Resorts, resulting in a 1-year average target price of $145.88, which reflects a 12.4% upside from the current stock price of Income Statement - Revenues Dow nside Base Upside Lift Tickets (1.0%) 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% Ski School (1.0%) 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% Dining (1.0%) 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% Retail (1.0%) 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% Other (1.0%) 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% Dow nside Base Upside Lodging 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% Real Estate 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% Income Statement - Expenses Dow nside Base Upside 75.0% 74.0% 73.0% 74.0% DCF Dow nside Base Upside 8.3% 7.8% 7.3% 7.8% Dow nside Base Upside 1.7% 2.0% 2.3% 2.0% Dow nside Base Upside 22.1x 22.3x 22.5x 22.3x Multiples Valuation Dow nside Base Upside 11.3x 11.8x 12.3x 11.8x Dow nside Base Upside 21.6x 22.1x 22.6x 22.1x EV/EBIT Exit Multiple EV/EBITDA Multiple NTM P/E Multiple WACC Perpetual Growth Rate Lodging and Real Estate Revenue - Incremental Growth Moutain Segment Revenue - Incremental Growth Operating Expenses as % of Sales DCF Target Price $165.33 P/ETarget Price $132.24 EV/EBITDA Target Price $140.50 Average 1-yr/2016 Target Price $145.88 Current Stock Price $129.74 Upside/Dow nside 12.4% Vail Resorts (MTN) Target Price DCF Target Price $201.74 P/ETarget Price $144.73 EV/EBITDA Target Price $156.99 Average 1-yr/2016 Target Price $167.65 Current Stock Price $129.74 Upside/Dow nside 29.2% Vail Resorts (MTN) Target Price DCF Target Price $138.41 P/ETarget Price $121.56 EV/EBITDA Target Price $126.04 Average 1-yr/2016 Target Price $128.54 Current Stock Price $129.74 Upside/Dow nside -0.9% Vail Resorts (MTN) Target Price
  • 38. 38 $129.74.105 This stock price does not take into account the potential of an acquisition, as it is not feasible to predict. Thus, it is recommended to purchase this stock, and extra value could be added in future years through acquisitions. Risks that could hamper this appreciation in stock price include a poor snow season, failure to realize the synergies of acquisitions, or a drastic change in discretionary consumer spending. The market is likely undervaluing this stock because of its uncertainty to meet high growth expectations, but following this analysis, it seems likely the Vail Resorts will meet or exceed growth expectations because of its competitive advantages, successful acquisitions, and strong lift ticket sales. 105 Stock price retrieved from yahoofinance.com at market close on December 15, 2015 DCF Target Price $165.33 P/ETarget Price $132.24 EV/EBITDA Target Price $140.50 Average 1-yr/2016 Target Price $145.88 Current Stock Price $129.74 Upside/Dow nside 12.4% Vail Resorts (MTN) Target Price