The document discusses ISIS and strategies for collecting intelligence on the terrorist organization. It describes ISIS's origins, leadership, goals of establishing a caliphate, territory controlled in Iraq and Syria, and use of violence. The most effective method of collecting timely data on future attacks is through human intelligence (HUMINT) programs using sources on the ground. The most qualified collectors would be intelligence specialists from the Department of Defense and military who speak Arabic and Farsi and have expertise in communications signals and cryptography. Collected data should be analyzed using strategies like analysis of competing hypotheses to avoid cognitive biases.

1. Islamic State
David Jones
American Military University
HLSS320
Professor Justin Novak
10/29/2016
Terrorism is a global threat that continues to grow despite
efforts by many countries to finish terrorist organizations. The
United States is always faced with the threat of terror within its
boundaries. Americans all over the world are always at risks of
being kidnapped and killed by terrorists. Currently, Al-Qaeda
and ISIS (Islamic State of Iraq and Syria) is the most dangerous
terrorist organizations in the world (BBC, 2014). The paper
examines ISIS with the aim of developing a comprehensive
profile to assess the threat it poses to the US and the rest of the
world. The paper will also discuss the most qualified members

2. of the IC team to collect the data on the terror group as well as
the most effective analytical strategies that will be used to
analyze the information collected. As shall be seen from the
discussion below, the most appropriate data collection programs
on this particular organization are HUMINT programs and
active military specialists as well as specialists from the
Department of Defense will be the most appropriate data
collectors and gatherers.
Background Information
ISIS is a jihadist group that was formed as a branch of Al-
Qaeda in Iraq in April 2013. Formerly it was known as the
Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant. The formation of an Al-
Qaeda branch in Iraq is attributed to the late Abu Musab al-
Zarqawi (BBC, 2015). Abu Musab al-Zarqawi swore allegiance
to Osama Bin Laden and formed an Al-Qaeda branch in Iraq in
2004 (BBC, 2014). It was a significant force in Iraq for a while.
The death of Abu Musab al-Zarqawi in 2006 prompted Al-Qaeda
in Iraq (AQI) to create an umbrella organization called Islamic
State in Iraq. The growth of ISIS has been characterized by
excessive violence to both Muslims and non-Muslims. It is
pertinent to note that ISIS remains one of the most dangerous
jihadist group even after being disavowed by Al-Qaeda (BBC,
2014). The separation came after ISIS succeeded in taking over
vast territories in Syria and Iraq. The exact size of ISIS is not
clear even though there is the belief that the group has many
fighters spread in Iraq and Syria. They also have loyal followers
in different parts of the world.
The group is under the leadership of Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi
(BBC, 2014). There is very little known about the leader of
ISIS. Many security officials believe that he is a native of
Samarra, north of Baghdad. He was born in 1971 and joined the
insurgency that formed after the United States of America
invaded Iraq in 2003. In 2010, he was the leader of Al-Qaeda in
Iraq. The group is the one that grew to become an independent
organization called ISIS (BBC, 2015). The leadership of ISIS is
one of the things that makes it attractive to young jihadists.

3. Baghdadi is a skilled tactician and battlefield commander,
which is the opposite of Al-Qaeda leadership. The level of
violence meted out by ISIS is an example of the levels that
Baghdadi can go to push an agenda.
Goals and Objectives
The goal of ISIS is to create a nation that is guided only by
the Sharia law. In June 2014, ISIS declared the formation of a
caliphate, which is a state governed by Sharia Law and guided
by Caliph. ISIS demands that all Muslims all over the world
must swear allegiance to the caliphate and migrate to areas
within its territory (McCants, 2016). They are also expected to
show utmost respect to Baghdadi who is the Caliph (BBC,
2015). The group has gone as far as commanding jihadists
groups all over the world to accept it has the supreme authority.
Unfortunately, many small groups within the Al-Qaeda network
have taken ISIS as the supreme authority in the ongoing jihad.
It is clear that the primary goal of ISIS is bringing the entire
world under the rule of the Islamic law (Bejesky, 2016). In the
process, the group is trying to unite all Muslims with the hope
of forming a formidable force. The organization is dedicated to
the cause of restoring the rule of God on earth and defending
Muslims against apostates and infidels.
Territory
According to the US Director National Counterterrorism Center
(NCTC), Mathew Olsen, the IS (Islamic State) is in control of
the area that Euphrates-Tigris basin. The area is approximately
210,000 sq km (BBC, 2015). It was reported in 2014. In 2015,
the US defense department believed that ISIS had been pushed
back to control 20-25% of their original region. The US-led
coalition air strikes made it difficult for the IS to maintain
control over larger territories. It is important to note that IS
managed to get their hands on a new territories with significant
strategic value in the same period.
Analysis believes the figures being floated by the US
Department of Defense do not reflect the actual situation on the
ground. The Islamic State controls a tiny part of the territory

4. because they lack the capacity to cover the entire area. They
take turns to patrol the other parts of the territory occasionally.
There is no precise information on the exact number of people
living under the control of the Islamic State. In March 2015, the
International Committee of Red Cross claimed that over 10
million are under the control of the Islamic State (BBC, 2015).
Information coming out of the areas under the strict
control of IS confirm that there is a very strict interpretation of
the Sharia Law (Bejesky, 2016). Women must wear full veils
and non-Muslims have the option of paying an individual tax,
converting to Islam or dying. Public beheadings are common in
these areas.
IS Fighters
In 2015 US Intelligence claimed that the Islamic State has
between 20,000 and 32,000 fighters in Iraq and Syria (BBC,
2015). It seems the state of the US-led coalition air strikes in
2015 have led to the death of many foot soldiers. US
intelligence claims about 10,000 IS fighters have been killed
already (BBC, 2015). The substantial loss of manpower has
prompted the Islamic State to turn to conscription to increase its
soldiers. In some areas of Iraq, it’s believed that the about 70%
of the fighters have enrolled because they fear being killed.
It is imperative to note that a huge number of ISIS fighters
are not from Iraq and Syria. The organization has attracted
many foreign militants. It is believed ISIS has about 28,000
foreign fighters, and 5,000 of them are Westerners (BBC, 2015).
Most of the Westerners are from Arab countries in the area,
which are Tunisia, Morocco, Saudi Arabia, and Jordan.
Targeted Areas
ISIS has targeted many areas outside Syria and Iraq. There
were reports of ISIS bringing down a Russian Airplane with no
survivors. US intelligence claims the plane might have crashed
because of a technical failure. Regardless, the attack has been
linked with ISIS. The group has been linked to the twin blasts
that killed 14 people in Beirut (BBC, 2015). The group claimed
responsibility for the wave of attacks that took place on 13

5. November last year. A total of 1,200 people has been killed in
attacks orchestrated by ISIS outside Iraq (Yourish, Watkins,
Giratikanon, & Lee, 2016).
Weapons
ISIS has access to advanced weaponry, which includes
rocket launchers, machine guns, surface to air missile systems,
and anti-aircraft guns (Bejesky, 2016). The organization
provides fighters with a wide variety of small arms. The group
has accessed tanks and armored vehicles from Syrian and Iraqi
armies. The group has close connections that have made it
possible to maintain a continuous flow of ammunition and
weapons with significant challenges. ISIS is considered one of
the richest jihad groups in the world. As a result, it is relatively
easy to access advanced weaponry from questionable sources.
The group generates money for maintenance and purchase of
ammunition by asking for kidnapping ransom, selling crude oil,
collecting the tax, and receiving donations from wealthy
supporters.
The group has access to advanced surveillance equipment.
Some of these equipment has been taken from the Iraqi and
Syria army. They have access to qualified personnel who can
use the social media as a tool of communication all over the
ISIS network.
Training and Communication Methods
ISIS had access to brilliant minds that are training members on
how to use encrypted platforms to communicate (Meyer, 2015).
ISIS has a team of geeks who are teaching fighters to take
advantage of social media, Whatsapp, Instagram and Silent
Circle to communicate (Meyer, 2015). They use encrypted
language to avoid being identified by spies. It has been a
challenge for security officials to thwart attacks because of an
efficient communication network formed by ISIS.
ISIS utilizes Nazi methods to train child soldiers. They
have created secret training camps that start with brainwashing
before one is taught combat (Bulman, 2016). The training camps
are under strict Sharia Laws, which means punishment is severe.

6. Children are forced to maim and carry out executions in a bid to
strengthen their resolve (Bulman, 2016). Videos have been
leaked online to show how ISIS fighters are put through extreme
violence to learn. The Islamic State is keen on producing the
next generation of soldiers who are not sensitive to extreme
violence.
Data Collection Programs
For the most part, data collection on ISIS future terror
plans has been difficult owing to the mystification of the group.
The group operates using the psychology of terror, and it is
often difficult to know when they are the perpetrators of the
terror attack or not. The psychology of terror that the group
uses can be seen through the random shootings, suicide
bombings, car bombs, and homemade explosives throughout the
world (BBC 2014, 1).
The members of the group are difficult to track because they are
always under the radar. Some of the faces of the terrorists from
this group only become known once they have participated in a
terror attack. These individuals are usually the low cadre
members of the group making it difficult to track the true
leaders of the Islamic State. Furthermore, the group uses
random shootings and car bombs all over the world to
demonstrate their significant presence around the globe. These
small organized crimes are difficult to track and even when
arrests are made; the true organizers are never caught.
To aid in the collection of this time-sensitive data, it has been
determined that human intelligence programs are best suited for
the task. Such programs use people on the ground to collect
information about a group, in this case, the terrorist group ISIS.
The terror group often conducts surprise attacks, which can be
difficult if not impossible to predict. Thus, human intelligence
can be useful in providing pertinent details such as time and
place of the next attack (Nygaard 2014, 5). The law enforcement
agencies can then use this intelligence to prevent the planned
attack from occurring.
HUMINT can be described as the intelligence derived from

7. information collected from and provided by humans (NATO
2015, 2-H-5; Sullivan 2012, 7). The information is gathered
through interpersonal contact as opposed to other data
collection techniques that are more technical including imagery
intelligence, signals intelligence, and measurement and
signature intelligence. Human intelligence can take many forms
including espionage, military contacts, refugees, traveler
debriefing, friendly diplomats, prisoners of war, traveler
debriefing, as well as non-governmental organizations.
For ISIS, the ground HUMINT sources will be essential during
the preparation and collection phases of intelligence gathering.
The ground sources have direct contact with members of the
terror group and can gain access to critical information about
the structure of the group, the leaders of each terror cell, as well
as plans for future attacks in different parts of the world. The
information gathered using such sources is considered high
profile and can be directly used in military operations against
ISIS.
In-depth reports indicate that the majority of funding for ISIS
originates from the northeastern regions of Africa as well as
Southwestern regions of Asia. For data collection to be most
useful, it is imperative that HUMINT sources be placed in
Egypt, Lebanon, Turkey, Jordan, Syria, and Iraq. Geospatial
imagery confirms that these areas have high volumes of ISIS
militant activities. Human sources placed in these areas can
extract crucial information that could lead to the capture of the
leaders of the group as well as the prevention of future terrorist
attacks around the globe. The human sources set up in these
areas need to be highly trained in dealing with the difficult
terrain as most of these regions experience extreme
temperatures (Sanchez 2015, 1).
As with other data collection programs, HUMINT programs
have several limitations. Most of these limitations are linked to
psychological connotations. For instance, perception, a
psychological principle, affects the way a human source will
receive and process firsthand information. The reason the

8. source is providing such information to the law enforcement
officers can also affect the credibility and reliability of the
information provided (Nygaard 2014, 35). Other limitations
include gaining sources that can provide information that
fulfills intelligence requirements as well as the time and
financial resources required to target, recruit, and operate the
human sources on the ground.
Collectors of Intelligence
HUMINT collectors need to be able to manage a large
number of human sources while at the same time attempt to gain
personal access to documents, conversations, places, and
information that qualify as integral intelligence (Sullivan 2012,
12). Furthermore, these collectors need to understand political
psychology extensively to actually ‘target, recruit, and obtain
information from a human source (Sullivan 2012, 12). HUMINT
programs require the collectors to exercise political discretion,
especially when operating in hostile territories such as ISIS-
controlled regions. Also, the collectors of the intelligence need
to be aware of why the human source is providing the
information to judge the source’s credibility as well as the
credibility of the information provided.
The best collectors of intelligence on the ISIS terror
organization would be private intelligence specialists contracted
using the Department of Defense as well as intelligence
specialists from the military. These specialists need to be
experts in Arabic and Farsi languages and cryptology. They also
need to demonstrate high-level expertise in communication
signals.
For most espionage cases, locals are usually targeted and
recruited to offer information to the law enforcement agencies.
However, it will not be prudent to recruit local nationals as
human sources when attempting to gather intelligence on ISIS.
HUMINT spies operate under US law among other international
treaties. Thus, the way they extract information on the ground
needs to be legal and ethical. The ISIS counter spies do not
operate under such laws, and they use extreme methods to get

9. information on their enemies. Recruiting local nationals as
human sources will only expose the intelligence collectors to
the ISIS counterspy operatives, putting their lives and the
success of the mission in serious jeopardy.
Intelligence Analysis Strategies
The analysis process should begin by translating the
information received by the intelligence collectors. Several
linguists need to be contracted to translate the information to
ensure that it is accurately translated. Cross-translation reduces
the chances of misinterpretation of the intelligence collected.
Other types of information sources such as film or electronic
data also need to be transcribed into a document format for
more exhaustive analysis.
Different strategies may be used to analyze the intelligence
gathered. One of these strategies is the analysis of competing
hypotheses, whereby the intelligence personnel evaluates
competing theories on observed data. The main benefit of this
analytical strategy is its unbiased take on different theories and
observations. The method also helps the collectors and other
personnel to overcome cognitive traps, which are a common
occurrence in the field of intelligence gathering on terrorist
groups (Thomason 2010, 12). Furthermore, the method is
auditable as it requires the analysts to create a matrix. Mistakes
can be noted easily every time the analysts go through the
matrix to check for accuracy.
Recommendations
1. The Department of Defense and other concerned agencies
need to dissolve the policy of using local nationals as HUMINT
operatives in the areas controlled by ISIS. It has been
discovered that ISIS recruits hundreds if not thousands of
counterspies to gain information on US undercover military
operations targeted at the terrorist group.
2. A law should also be put in place to increase the signing
bonuses of military recruits who are proficient in Farsi and
Arabic languages and cryptology. Such recruits will be

10. instrumental in the intelligence collection and analyses phases
owing to their familiarity with the languages used. The directive
will act as an incentive for more military students to take up
Arabic and Farsi courses during their training periods.
3. The Homeland Security Budget for the next year needs to
be created before the current fiscal year ends. Preparing the
budget in advance will help the Homeland Security Department
to consider all the human, time, and space resources needed to
effectively carry out intelligence programs in different regions
controlled by ISIS over a one-year period. Budget constraints
often hamper the effectiveness of the HUMINT programs in
hostile nations.
Conclusion
ISIS is a very dangerous jihadist that is threating world peace
every day. The group has grown without major obstacles
because of the lack of a strong government since the invasion of
Iraq in 2003. The group continues to grow every day because of
the war in Syria. It is imperative for the relevant organizations
to come up with methods that can help Americans save from any
ISIS attack.
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