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FUNDAMENTAL RESEARCHSEBI CERTIFIED – RESEARCH ANALYST
ICICI Prudential Life Insurance Co. Ltd.
ICICI Prudential Life Insurance Co. Ltd. (ICICI Prudential) is the largest private
sector life insurer in India by total premium and assets under management in
fiscal 2016. ICICI Prudential, which is a joint venture between country’s largest
private sector bank ICICI Bank Ltd. and Prudential Corporation Holdings Limited, a
part of the Prudential Group, has gross premium income of Rs191.6 bn in FY16
and assets under management (AUM) at Rs1.1 trillion (tn).
Key competitive strengths of company:
• Consistent leadership across cycles; well positioned to deliver industry leading
growth
• Providing quality services to customers
• Diversified multi-channel distribution network
• Delivering healthy return to shareholders
Valuation and View: At higher price band of Rs334, ICICI Prudential's stock is
trading at P/EV multiple of 3.4(x) of its FY16 embedded value per share (EVPS) .
Below are few observations about the issue:
• ICICI Prudential is one of the largest private sector insurance player in India
with a 21.9% market share in FY16 in terms of retail weighted received
premium (RWRP) among private sector insurance companies and 11.3%
among all insurance companies in India (public and private sector)
• Value of new business (VNB), which is the present value of future earnings of
the new policies written during a period, grew by 52.6% YoY in FY16 to Rs4.12
bn and VNB margin also improved to 8% in FY16 from 5.7% in FY15
• Continued focus on cost efficiency and persistency, robust risk management
have enabled the company to deliver healthy return ratios and strong growth
in business.
• Net interest premium grew by a CAGR of 12.3% during FY13-FY16 and RoE
remained healthy at around 30% during the same period
1
Sep 16, 2016
IPO Update
High growth opportunities in future
Allocation (% of Issue Size)
QIBs 50%
Non-Institutional 15%
Retail 35%
Retail Application Money at
Higher Cut-Off Price per Lot
Number of Shares per Lot 44
Application Money Rs14,696.0
Research Analyst
Satish Kumar (022-6707 9913)
Satish.kumar@choiceindia.com
Recommendation Subscribe
Price Band (per share) Rs300-Rs334
No of OFS Shares 181.3 mn
Fresh Issue Shares 0.0
OFS Issue Size at upper band Rs60,567.9 mn
Fresh Issue Size 0.0
Total Issue Size Rs60,567.9 mn
Bidding Date Sep 19, 2016 - Sep 21, 2016
Book Running Lead
Manager
DSP Merrill Lynch Ltd., ICICI Securities
Ltd., CLSA India Private Ltd.,
Deutsche Equities India Private Ltd.,
Edelweiss Financial Services Ltd.,
HSBC Securities and Capital Markets
(India) Private Ltd., IIFL Holdings Ltd.,
JM Financial Institutional Securities
Ltd., SBI Capital Markets Ltd., UBS
Securities India Private Ltd.
Registrar Karvy Computershare Private Ltd.
Sector Insurance
Key financials (Rs mn) FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 Q1FY17
Net premium income 134,172.4 122,826.5 151,604.5 189,987.0 35,087.8
PAT 15,154.8 15,625.0 16,402.1 16,530.5 4,050.2
Growth (%) 9.4% 3.1% 5.0% 0.8% -
Restated EPS (Rs) 10.6 10.9 11.4 11.5 11.3
Restated BVPS (Rs) 33.7 34.7 36.7 37.1 40.0
RoE (%) 31.4% 37.4% 34.0% 31.2% -
Embedded value (EV) 137,210.0 139,390.0
RoEV (%) 15.4% 15.30%
Solvency ratio (%) 393.0% 369.0% 337.0% 320.0% 320.5%
Cost to TWRP (%) 18.9% 15.4% 14.6% 21.1%
Value of new business (VNB) 2,700 4,123
VNB Margin (%) 5.7% 8.0%
Research Associate
Sahil Nandkumar (022-6707 9914)
Sahil.nandkumar@choiceindia.com
• The company is likely to witness strong growth in net premium income driven by high growth in ULIPs, diversified multi-channel
distribution network and favorable industry dynamics.
• Besides ICICI Bank, the company has also entered into partnership with Standard Chartered Bank and Capital Small Finance Bank Limited
and is selling insurance products through 4,550 branches in the country. Bancassurance accounts for around 59% of retail annualised
premium equivalent.
• The company has strong focus on cost control and thereby the cost to total weighted received premium (TWRP) declined from 17.9% in
FY12 to 14.6% in FY16, one of the lowest ratio in the industry.
• Despite having strong focus on expense management, the company is also shifting product portfolios towards the higher margin
protection business, which currently accounts for around 2.5% of APE in FY16 compared to 1.5% in FY15.
• Higher dependence on retail ULIPS business, increasing competition in insurance segments and uncertainty over rules and regulations
for sector represent key concerns for the business
• At higher price band of Rs334, ICICI Prudential's valued at Rs479,390 mn or P/EV multiple of 3.4(x) of FY16 EVPS, which is around 47%
premium to last stake sale by ICICI bank when it sold 6% stake for around Rs19,500 mn valuing the the company at Rs325,000 mn.
However, the valuation appears attractive if we compare the recent share swap agreement between HDFC Life and Max life which
valued at P/EV multiple of 4.2(x) of FY16 EVPS.
Thus, keeping in mind the above observations, we recommend a “Subscribe” rating for the public issue
FUNDAMENTAL RESEARCHSEBI CERTIFIED – RESEARCH ANALYST
IPO Update
Industry Overview:
Indian Economy is the 4th largest economy in the world in terms of GDP at purchasing power parity (PPP) exchange rates,
with an estimated GDP in PPP terms for 2015 of US$7.97 trillion. India currently has one of the youngest populations in the
world with an estimated 90% of its population expected to be below the age of 60 by 2020. A high share of working
population coupled with urbanisation and increasing affluence is expected to propel the growth of the life insurance industry.
India has a large pool of household savings with the ratio of household savings to GDP standing at 19% in FY15. The share of
life insurance as a proportion of financial savings in India was at its highest at 26.2% in FY10. However owing to the
regulatory changes and downturn in capital markets, the share of life insurance declined sharply to 16% in FY14. In FY15 the
share of life insurance increased to 19% partly due to the increase in the sale of linked products.
Indian Life Insurance Sector Overview: The size of the Indian life insurance sector (excluding Sahara Life Insurance Company
Limited) was Rs3.7 trillion on a total premium basis in fiscal 2016, making it the tenth largest life insurance market in the
world and the fifth largest in Asia. The total premium in the Indian life insurance sector grew at a CAGR of approximately 17%
between FY01 and FY16. Despite this, India continues to be an underpenetrated insurance market with a life insurance
penetration of 2.7% in FY15, as compared to 3.7% in Thailand, 7.3% in South Korea and a global average of 3.5% in 2015.
2
Source: Choice Broking, Company data, RHP
ICICI Prudential Life Insurance Co. Ltd.
Source: Choice Broking, Company data, RHP
2.47 4.84
5.8 5.71
7.75
7.74 6.43
7.34 8.63 9.61
45%
49%
52%
43%
48%
43%
32%
33%
37%
40%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Financial savings
Financial Savings (Amt in trillions)
Financial Savings as a % of Household…
-20.0%
0.0%
20.0%
40.0%
60.0%
80.0%
FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15
Financial savings mix
Currency Bank Deposits
Life Insurance Fund Provident and Pension Fund
Others
2717
1940
1719
688
215 178 153 43 43 17 15
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
Japan
S.Korea
US
S.Africa
Thailand
Brazil
China
India
Indonesia
Turkey
Russia
Life Insurance Density (Prem. Per Capita (US$)
in 2015
36%
50% 57% 52% 46%
37% 38% 38%
49% 52%
64%
50% 43% 48% 54%
63% 62% 62%
51% 48%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16
Market share of Private Sector Companies and LIC
Private LIC
In 2015, the Government of India increased the maximum permissible shareholding of foreign investors from 26% of paid-up
equity capital to 49%. This led to an inflow in foreign investments of US$1.13 billion (bn) in FY16, an approximate increase of
170% over FY15. According to CRISIL Research, Life insurance industry report, July 2016, the new business premium for Indian
life insurance companies is expected to grow at a CAGR of 11-13% over the next five years. Some of the key catalysts for this
growth are; Improving economic growth, low insurance penetration, increased financial savings, and a low sum assured to
GDP ratio.
Health Insurance is emerging as an opportunity for Insurance providers as only 17% of the total population in India has health
insurance coverage as of March 31,2015. In addition, only about 20% of this health insurance coverage was provided by
insurance providers (both life and general), with the remaining covered under government-sponsored schemes such as the
Central Government Health Scheme and the Employee State Insurance Scheme
FUNDAMENTAL RESEARCHSEBI CERTIFIED – RESEARCH ANALYST
IPO Update
Market Structure:
The Indian life insurance sector can be classified both in terms of customer segments and products offered. The following
chart sets forth the composition of new business premium in fiscal 2016 by customer type and by product
3
Source: Choice Broking, Company data, RHP
ICICI Prudential Life Insurance Co. Ltd.
Life
Insurance
Based on
Customer
Individual
Single
Premium
Regular
Premium
Group
Based on
Product
Non-Linked
Participating
Non-
Participating
Linked
• Linked Products mainly consist of ULIPs which offer a combination of investment and protection where the customer can
choose
the level of life coverage, subject to minimum levels mandated by regulations.
• Non Linked products consist of participating products and Non participating savings and annuity products. The Participating
(par) products are those for which the surplus is shared with the policyholders in the form of bonuses. Non-participating
products are those that offer benefits that are guaranteed in absolute terms at the beginning of the policy and do not
provide any upside potential from the underlying fund performance
• Group Products consists of Group term and other group products. Group term products provide life insurance coverage to
a group of individuals, where, upon the death of a member, the sum assured is paid to the member’s nominee. Other
group products include unit-linked and variable insurance products.
Product Mix: ULIPs accounted for 92% and 75% of the new business premiums for private sector companies and the overall
industry FY08 as compared to 43% and 13% in FY16. However the ULIP regulations introduced in September 2010, financial
crisis, slowdown in economic growth and financial savings, volatility in equity markets, rising interest rates and high inflation
led to change in the product mix. Indian life insurers introduced 177 new products in fiscal 2015, as compared to 147 new
products in FY14. Life insurance companies launched nine products in FY15 for health insurance compared to only two new
products in FY14. These products covered customers for serious diseases like cancer or other critical illnesses.
Total Cost Ratio For the year ended March 31,
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Private Sector Companies 27.0% 25.6% 27.4% 25.8% 24.0%
LIC 19.2% 17.5% 18.8% 22.0% 19.8%
Industry 21.8% 20.0% 21.4% 23.0% 21.0% 0.0%
50.0%
100.0%
Equity Debt
Total expenses as % of total weighted received premiums Trend in investment portfolio of Life insurance sector:
The sum assured by life insurance companies has increased significantly in recent years due to an increased focus on
protection sales . The average new business premium per policy for the industry increased from Rs.10,343 in FY10 to
Rs.16,508 in FY16. Private sector companies have higher average premiums than LIC. There has been a significant shift in the
channel mix of the Indian life insurance sector from the earlier agency-only model to a diversified distribution mix (Individual
agents contributed 91% of the business in FY07 while in FY16 they contributed only 68.5%, the corporate agents-Banks
contributed only 5.6% in FY07 while in FY16 they contributed 24%). The direct distribution channel has also increased over the
years for private sector companies. In fiscal 2016, direct sales contributed 9.6% of the new business premiums for private
sector companies. The total claims paid by the life insurance sector grew at a CAGR of 12% between FY10 and FY15 with the
Individual claim settlement ratio for the industry increasing from 95.6% in FY11 to 97.07% in FY15.
FUNDAMENTAL RESEARCHSEBI CERTIFIED – RESEARCH ANALYST
IPO Update
Company Introduction: ICICI Prudential Life Insurance Co. Ltd. (ICICI Prudential) is the largest private sector life insurer in
India by total premium and assets under management in fiscal 2016. ICICI Prudential, which is a joint venture between
country’s largest private sector bank ICICI Bank Ltd. and Prudential Corporation Holdings Limited, a part of the Prudential
Group, has gross premium income of Rs191.6 bn in FY16 and assets under management (AUM) at Rs1.1 trillion (tn). The
company offers a range of insurance products include life insurance, health insurance and pension products and services.
Starting operations in 2001, the company is the one of the first private sector life insurance companies in India and since
fiscal 2002, the company has consistently generated the most new business premiums on a retail weighted received
premium basis among all private sector life insurers in India. The company’s market share among all insurance companies in
India was 11.6% in FY16 on a retail weighted received premium basis.
Business Overview: ICICI Prudential offer a range of products to cater to the specific needs of customers in different life
stages, enabling them to meet their long-term savings and protection needs through an extensive multi-channel sales
network across India, including through the branches of bank partners, individual agents, corporate agents, employees,
offices and website. Unit linked insurance products (ULIPs) comprised 82.6% of retail annualised premium equivalent (APE) in
FY16 which increased from Rs22.1 bn in FY14 to Rs41.8 bn in FY16, representing a CAGR of 37.5%. ICICI Prudential’s 13th
month persistency ratio in fiscal 2016 was 82.4%, which was one of the highest in the sector and expense ratio was 14.6% for
fiscal 2016, one of the lowest among the private sector life insurance companies in India.
The company follows a customer-centric, market-oriented approach in product design through a “4C Model”. Under the 4C
Model, the company follows 4C perspectives which includes 1) products which meet different customer needs, provide
better returns and are easy to understand, 2) products that are profitable and enhance our market position, 3) products that
are easy to sell and offer distributors appropriate remuneration and 4) products that are innovative and offer better
customer value than competitors.
4
Source: Choice Broking, Company data, RHP
ICICI Prudential Life Insurance Co. Ltd.
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
0.0
50,000.0
100,000.0
150,000.0
200,000.0
250,000.0
FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16
Rsmn
Net premium Income
Premiums earned (Net) Growth (%)
Source: Choice Broking, Company data, RHP
64.1%
83.1% 80.8%
18.2%
13.2% 14.1%
0.0%
20.0%
40.0%
60.0%
80.0%
100.0%
120.0%
FY14 FY15 FY16
Product mix based on APE
Other group products
Pure protection (retail and group) products
Retail non-par products
Annualised Premium Equivalent
FY14 FY15 FY16
Rs bn % Rs bn % Rs bn %
Retail Life Insurance Products 33.6 97.5% 46.7 98.4% 50.6 97.9%
Group Life Insurance Products 0.9 2.5% 0.8 1.6% 1.1 2.1%
Total 34.5 100.0% 47.4 100.0% 51.7 100.0%
55% 60% 59%
29% 25% 27%
10% 7% 7%
6% 9% 10%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
FY14 FY15 FY16
Channel mix of retail APE
Bancassurance Agency Corporate agency and brokers Direct sales
FUNDAMENTAL RESEARCHSEBI CERTIFIED – RESEARCH ANALYST
IPO Update
Business strengths :
Consistent leadership across cycles; well positioned to deliver industry leading growth: ICICI Prudential consistently
generated the most new business premiums on a retail weighted received premium basis among all private sector life
insurers in India for every year since FY02, responded successfully to the various regulatory changes since 2010. The
company’s market share, on a retail weighted received premium basis, in the Indian life insurance sector increased from 5.9%
in FY12 to 11.3% in FY16. Given the sharp focus on linked products & diversified multi distribution channel, the company is
likely to deliver high growth going forward. ULIPs accounts for around 82.6% of its retail annualised premium equivalent in
FY16.
Delivering healthy return to shareholders: As on June 30, 2016 the company had Rs1.09 tn of assets under management,
making it one of the largest fund managers in India of which 73% in linked assets. Over the last five fiscals, ICICI Prudential
delivered healthy RoE in the range of 30-35% and also has a strong capital position with a solvency ratio of 320.5% by June
30, 2016. Besides, its expenses ratio is one of the lowest among the private life insurers and persistency ratio have been
increasing in recent years. Value of new businesses grew by a 56% in FY16 driven by the improvement in the persistency ratio
as well as the product mix. Robust risk management, resilient balance sheet and focus on cost efficiency and persistency have
enabled the company to establish a track record of delivering results.
Providing quality services to customers: The company’s ability to provide quality customer service is reflected in its low
grievance ratio of 153 per 10,000 new policies issued, which compared favorably to the private sector average of around 345
per 10,000 new policies issued in FY16. Furthermore, claims settlement ratio for individual death claims of 96.2% was higher
than most private sector life insurance companies, as compared to the private sector average of 89.4%. In the same year,
over 99% of claim payouts were settled within the IRDAI-prescribed timeline of 30 days for claims.
Diversified multi-channel distribution network: The company has 124,155 individual agents and over 4,500 branches of bank
partners as of June 30, 2016 to sell its products and services. Apart from the largest shareholders, the company has also
entered into a bancassurance relationship with Standard Chartered Bank and and Capital Small Finance Bank. Financial firms
like ICICI Securities, India Infoline Insurance Brokers and Bluechip Insurance Broking also sell these products and services. The
company also offers products to customers through employees, at offices and on website. The diversified channel mix
enables the company to access different customer segments and outperform the market across business cycles on a retail
weighted received premium basis.
Business strategies:
• To adequately leverage the business opportunities arising from low penetration level of insurance products in India and
rapidly growing Indian life insurance industry
• To focus on customer-centric approach spans the customer life cycle, from product development to customer service and
claims management
• Focus to ensure long-term safety, stability and growth of customers’ funds
• As the company has India-wide presence, ICICI Prudential strategies to focus on key local markets, with a customised
regional strategy to maintain and enhance position in these markets
• To continue to identify and explore growth opportunities including emerging segments like health and pensions.
• To focus more on expanding protection business as these products typically have higher margins.
• To enhance focus on improving operational efficiency as it is essential to drive growth in value of new business
• To achieve sustainable growth, ICICI Prudential plan to further diversify distribution architecture by exploring non-
traditional channels (cross selling of products, digital channels) , while strengthening existing channels and relationships
• Continue to focus on more digital usage in business processes
• ICICI Prudential intend to focus on five main initiatives to drive digital agenda – 1) increasing digital marketing and sales,
2)utilising big data and machine learning techniques, 3)building a modular information technology platform, 4) digitising
sales and service processes; and 5) partnering with organisations across the eco-system.
Risks & Concerns
• Changes in regulatory environment, adverse equity market fluctuations in India and changes in Interest rates
• Larger share of business is coming from few products like ULIPs. Any constraint in selling these products due to future
regulatory changes restricting or limiting the sale or marketing of these products, changes in customer preference or any
other factor could have a material adverse effect on the business.
• Increasing competition in the domestic insurance industry is an issue. Indian life insurance companies operate in a highly
competitive space with 23 private sector companies and LIC. Mergers and acquisitions involving its competitors may
create entities that have higher market share, greater resources and larger distribution networks than ICICI Prudential,
thereby impacting its market positioning, business and financial performance.
• Any termination of, or any adverse change to, its relationships with or performance of bancassurance partners may have
adverse effect business, financial condition, results of operations and prospects of the company
5
ICICI Prudential Life Insurance Co. Ltd.
FUNDAMENTAL RESEARCHSEBI CERTIFIED – RESEARCH ANALYST
IPO Update
Valuation and view: ICICI Prudential is one of the largest private sector insurance player in India consisting of 21.9% share in
FY16 in terms of retail weighted received premium (RWRP) among private sector insurance companies and 11.3% among all
insurance companies in India (public and private sector) Value of new business (VNB), which is the present value of future
earnings of the new policies written during a period, grew by 52.6% YoY in FY16 to Rs4.12 bn and VNB margin also improved
to 8% from 5.7% in FY16 Continued focus on cost efficiency and persistency, robust risk management have enabled the
company to deliver healthy return ratios and strong growth in business.
Net interest premium grew by a CAGR of 12.3% during FY13-FY16 and RoE remained healthy at around 30% during the same
period. The company is likely to witness strong growth in net premium income driven by high growth in ULIPs, diversified
multi-channel distribution network and favorable industry dynamics. Besides ICICI Bank, the company has also made
partnership with Standard Chartered Bank and Capital Small Finance Bank Limited and is selling insurance products through
4,550 branches in the country. Bancassurance accounts for around 59% of retail annualised premium equivalent.
The company has strong focus on cost control and thereby the cost to total weighted received premium (TWRP) declined
from 17.9% in FY12 to 14.6% in FY16, one of the lowest ratio in the industry. Despite having strong focus on expense
management, the company is also shifting product portfolios towards the higher margin business protection business, which
current accounts for around 2.5% of APE in FY16 compared to 1.5% in FY15. Largest dependence on retail ULIPS business,
increasing competition in insurance segment and uncertainty over rules and regulations for sector represented key concerns
for the business. At higher price band of Rs334, ICICI Prudential's valued at Rs479,390 mn or P/EV multiple of 3.4(x) of FY16
EVPS, which is around 47% premium to last stake sale by ICICI bank when it sold 6% stake for around Rs19,500 mn valuing the
the company at Rs325,000 mn. However, the valuation appears attractive if we compare the recent share swap agreement
between HDFC Life and Max life which valued at P/EVPS multiple of 4.2(x) of FY16 EV.
Thus, keeping in mind the above observations, we recommend a “Subscribe” rating for the public issue
6
ICICI Prudential Life Insurance Co. Ltd.
Particulars ICICI Prudential Life HDFC Standard Life SBI Life Max Life
Kotak
Mahindra Old
Mutual Life
Market Share Among Private Companies (On
the Basis of RWRP fro FY16)
21.9% 14.7% 18.8% 9.3% 4.1%
Product Mix (New Business Premium - FY16)
Linked 82.3% 43.7% 45.6% 21.1% 26.4%
Non Linked 17.7% 56.3% 54.4% 78.9% 73.6%
AUM (Rs. Billion) 1,001.8 670.0 713.0 311.0 136.0
ROE three year average (FY16) 34.2% 35.3% 22.1% 21.4% 21.2%
Solvency ratio (as on March 31,2016) 320.0% 198.0% 212.0% 343.0% 311.0%
Claims settlement ratio (individual)(FY16) 96.2% 95.0% 95.8% 96.2% 89.1%
Number of branches (Bancassurance) 4,550 4,791 22,606 3,679 1,333
FUNDAMENTAL RESEARCHSEBI CERTIFIED – RESEARCH ANALYST
IPO Update
7
ICICI Prudential Life Insurance Co. Ltd.
Policyholder's account (Standalone' Rs mn)
Particulars FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 Q1FY17
Premiums earned (Net) 134,172.4 122,826.5 151,604.5 189,987.0 35,087.8
Income from investments 61,866.8 92,126.0 187,385.4 12,083.6 53,563.8
Other income 240.7 172.5 179.2 208.8 139.3
Contribution from shareholders' accounts 6,272.90 958.8 388.5 52.8
Total Income (A) 202,552.8 216,083.8 339,557.6 202,279.4 88,843.7
Commission 7,654.2 6,274.8 5,531.7 6,199.8 1,257.3
Operating expenses 17,131.0 16,161.7 16,543.3 18,883.3 5,520.1
Benefits paid (Net) 132,927.0 120,833.0 122,600.0 124,248.0 29,281.0
Liabilities against life policies 25931.0 56617.0 179561.0 35155.0 49570.0
Others 3350.0 3196.0 3132.0 3643.0 942.0
Provision for tax 350.4 481.4 511.7 703.5 4.2
Total B 187,343.6 203,563.9 327,879.7 188,832.6 86,574.6
Surplus/deficit 15,209.2 12,519.9 11,677.9 13,446.8 2,269.1
Transfer to shareholders' account 17,731.90 12,635.10 11,372.00 12,102.90 2,496.80
Future being used for future appropriation -2,523.00 -115.3 306.2 1,344.20 -227.1
Shareholders account FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 Q1FY17
Transferred from Policyholders' account 17,731.90 12,635.10 11,372.00 12,102.90 2,496.80
Income from investments 4161 3947 5374 5995.8 1957
Total A 21,892.9 16,582.1 16,746.0 18,098.7 4,453.8
Expenses (apart from insurance) 58.2 114.3 453.4 313.3 72.8
Contribution to policyholder account 6,272.90 958.8 388.5 52.8
Others 263 43.9
Total B 6,331.1 1,336.1 841.9 357.2 125.6
Profit/loss before tax 15,561.8 15,246.0 15,904.1 17,741.5 4,328.2
Provisions for tax 407.0 -379.0 -498.0 1,211.0 278.0
PAT 15,154.8 15,625.0 16,402.1 16,530.5 4,050.2
Balance sheet FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 Q1FY17
Share capital 14,289.4 14,292.6 14,317.2 14,323.2 14,328.7
Reserves & surplus 34,123.0 35,525.0 38,337.0 38,926.0 43,112.0
Policyholders' funds
Policy liabilities 110,276.0 138,124.9 172,587.5 202,547.9 211,375.0
Provision for linked liabilities 573,885.9 602,654.2 747,752.7 752,947.2 793,689.6
Fair value change 3,183.0 5,463.0 12,317.0 10,289.0 13,702.0
Funds for future appropriation 5,082.5 4,967.2 5,273.4 6,617.6 6,390.0
Source of funds 740,839.8 801,026.9 990,584.8 1,025,650.9 1,082,597.3
Investments
Shareholders 49,188.0 53,488.0 58,568.0 62,157.0 55,468.0
Policyholders 112,770.0 144,426.0 188,580.0 215,156.0 229,720.0
Assets held for linked liablilities 575,208.0 603,104.0 747,775.0 752,958.0 793,698.0
Loans 87 119 201 443 501.4
Fixed assets 1,722.50 2,015.40 2,150.00 2,195.40 2,132.40
Net current assets -6,942.0 -8,098.0 -6,689.0 -7,258.0 1,077.0
Misc expenditures 8,805.0 5,972.0
Application of funds 740,838.5 801,026.9 990,584.8 1,025,651.9 1,082,597.3
Diff 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
FUNDAMENTAL RESEARCHSEBI CERTIFIED – RESEARCH ANALYST 8
INITIATING COVERAGE
Choice Equity Broking Pvt. Ltd.
Choice House, Shree Shakambhari Corporate Park, Plt No: -156-158,
J.B. Nagar, Andheri (East), Mumbai - 400 099.
+91-022-6707 9999
+91-022-6707 9959
www.choiceindia.com
Choice’s Rating Rationale
The price target for a large cap stock represents the value the analyst expects the stock to reach over next 12 months. For a
stock to be classified as Outperform, the expected return must exceed the local risk free return by at least 5% over the next
12 months. For a stock to be classified as Underperform, the stock return must be below the local risk free return by at least
5% over the next 12 months. Stocks between these bands are classified as Neutral.
Disclaimer
This is solely for information of clients of Choice Broking and does not construe to be an investment advice. It is also not intended as an offer or solicitation for
the purchase and sale of any financial instruments. Any action taken by you on the basis of the information contained herein is your responsibility alone and
Choice Broking its subsidiaries or its employees or associates will not be liable in any manner for the consequences of such action taken by you. We have
exercised due diligence in checking the correctness and authenticity of the information contained in this recommendation, but Choice Broking or any of its
subsidiaries or associates or employees shall not be in any way responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person from any inadvertent error in
the information contained in this recommendation or any action taken on basis of this information. This report is based on the fundamental analysis with a view
to forecast future price. The Research analysts for this report certifies that all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect his or her personal views
about the subject company or companies and its or their securities, and no part of his or her compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly related to
specific recommendations or views expressed in this report. Choice Broking has based this document on information obtained from sources it believes to be
reliable but which it has not independently verified; Choice Broking makes no guarantee, representation or warranty and accepts no responsibility or liability as
to its accuracy or completeness. The opinions contained within the report are based upon publicly available information at the time of publication and are
subject to change without notice. The information and any disclosures provided herein are in summary form and have been prepared for informational
purposes. The recommendations and suggested price levels are intended purely for stock market investment purposes. The recommendations are valid for the
day of the report and will remain valid till the target period. The information and any disclosures provided herein may be considered confidential. Any use,
distribution, modification, copying, forwarding or disclosure by any person is strictly prohibited. The information and any disclosures provided herein do not
constitute a solicitation or offer to purchase or sell any security or other financial product or instrument. The current performance may be unaudited. Past
performance does not guarantee future returns. There can be no assurance that investments will achieve any targeted rates of return, and there is no guarantee
against the loss of your entire investment.
POTENTIAL CONFLICT OF INTEREST DISCLOSURE (as on date of report) Disclosure of interest statement – • Analyst interest of the stock /Instrument(s): - No. •
Firm interest of the stock / Instrument (s): - No.
Satish
Kumar
Digitally signed by Satish Kumar
DN: cn=Satish Kumar, o=Choice Equity
Broking Pvt. Ltd., ou=Research Analyst,
email=satish.kumar@choiceindia.com,
c=US
Date: 2016.09.16 13:50:09 +05'30'

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Ipo analysis icici prudance

  • 1. FUNDAMENTAL RESEARCHSEBI CERTIFIED – RESEARCH ANALYST ICICI Prudential Life Insurance Co. Ltd. ICICI Prudential Life Insurance Co. Ltd. (ICICI Prudential) is the largest private sector life insurer in India by total premium and assets under management in fiscal 2016. ICICI Prudential, which is a joint venture between country’s largest private sector bank ICICI Bank Ltd. and Prudential Corporation Holdings Limited, a part of the Prudential Group, has gross premium income of Rs191.6 bn in FY16 and assets under management (AUM) at Rs1.1 trillion (tn). Key competitive strengths of company: • Consistent leadership across cycles; well positioned to deliver industry leading growth • Providing quality services to customers • Diversified multi-channel distribution network • Delivering healthy return to shareholders Valuation and View: At higher price band of Rs334, ICICI Prudential's stock is trading at P/EV multiple of 3.4(x) of its FY16 embedded value per share (EVPS) . Below are few observations about the issue: • ICICI Prudential is one of the largest private sector insurance player in India with a 21.9% market share in FY16 in terms of retail weighted received premium (RWRP) among private sector insurance companies and 11.3% among all insurance companies in India (public and private sector) • Value of new business (VNB), which is the present value of future earnings of the new policies written during a period, grew by 52.6% YoY in FY16 to Rs4.12 bn and VNB margin also improved to 8% in FY16 from 5.7% in FY15 • Continued focus on cost efficiency and persistency, robust risk management have enabled the company to deliver healthy return ratios and strong growth in business. • Net interest premium grew by a CAGR of 12.3% during FY13-FY16 and RoE remained healthy at around 30% during the same period 1 Sep 16, 2016 IPO Update High growth opportunities in future Allocation (% of Issue Size) QIBs 50% Non-Institutional 15% Retail 35% Retail Application Money at Higher Cut-Off Price per Lot Number of Shares per Lot 44 Application Money Rs14,696.0 Research Analyst Satish Kumar (022-6707 9913) Satish.kumar@choiceindia.com Recommendation Subscribe Price Band (per share) Rs300-Rs334 No of OFS Shares 181.3 mn Fresh Issue Shares 0.0 OFS Issue Size at upper band Rs60,567.9 mn Fresh Issue Size 0.0 Total Issue Size Rs60,567.9 mn Bidding Date Sep 19, 2016 - Sep 21, 2016 Book Running Lead Manager DSP Merrill Lynch Ltd., ICICI Securities Ltd., CLSA India Private Ltd., Deutsche Equities India Private Ltd., Edelweiss Financial Services Ltd., HSBC Securities and Capital Markets (India) Private Ltd., IIFL Holdings Ltd., JM Financial Institutional Securities Ltd., SBI Capital Markets Ltd., UBS Securities India Private Ltd. Registrar Karvy Computershare Private Ltd. Sector Insurance Key financials (Rs mn) FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 Q1FY17 Net premium income 134,172.4 122,826.5 151,604.5 189,987.0 35,087.8 PAT 15,154.8 15,625.0 16,402.1 16,530.5 4,050.2 Growth (%) 9.4% 3.1% 5.0% 0.8% - Restated EPS (Rs) 10.6 10.9 11.4 11.5 11.3 Restated BVPS (Rs) 33.7 34.7 36.7 37.1 40.0 RoE (%) 31.4% 37.4% 34.0% 31.2% - Embedded value (EV) 137,210.0 139,390.0 RoEV (%) 15.4% 15.30% Solvency ratio (%) 393.0% 369.0% 337.0% 320.0% 320.5% Cost to TWRP (%) 18.9% 15.4% 14.6% 21.1% Value of new business (VNB) 2,700 4,123 VNB Margin (%) 5.7% 8.0% Research Associate Sahil Nandkumar (022-6707 9914) Sahil.nandkumar@choiceindia.com • The company is likely to witness strong growth in net premium income driven by high growth in ULIPs, diversified multi-channel distribution network and favorable industry dynamics. • Besides ICICI Bank, the company has also entered into partnership with Standard Chartered Bank and Capital Small Finance Bank Limited and is selling insurance products through 4,550 branches in the country. Bancassurance accounts for around 59% of retail annualised premium equivalent. • The company has strong focus on cost control and thereby the cost to total weighted received premium (TWRP) declined from 17.9% in FY12 to 14.6% in FY16, one of the lowest ratio in the industry. • Despite having strong focus on expense management, the company is also shifting product portfolios towards the higher margin protection business, which currently accounts for around 2.5% of APE in FY16 compared to 1.5% in FY15. • Higher dependence on retail ULIPS business, increasing competition in insurance segments and uncertainty over rules and regulations for sector represent key concerns for the business • At higher price band of Rs334, ICICI Prudential's valued at Rs479,390 mn or P/EV multiple of 3.4(x) of FY16 EVPS, which is around 47% premium to last stake sale by ICICI bank when it sold 6% stake for around Rs19,500 mn valuing the the company at Rs325,000 mn. However, the valuation appears attractive if we compare the recent share swap agreement between HDFC Life and Max life which valued at P/EV multiple of 4.2(x) of FY16 EVPS. Thus, keeping in mind the above observations, we recommend a “Subscribe” rating for the public issue
  • 2. FUNDAMENTAL RESEARCHSEBI CERTIFIED – RESEARCH ANALYST IPO Update Industry Overview: Indian Economy is the 4th largest economy in the world in terms of GDP at purchasing power parity (PPP) exchange rates, with an estimated GDP in PPP terms for 2015 of US$7.97 trillion. India currently has one of the youngest populations in the world with an estimated 90% of its population expected to be below the age of 60 by 2020. A high share of working population coupled with urbanisation and increasing affluence is expected to propel the growth of the life insurance industry. India has a large pool of household savings with the ratio of household savings to GDP standing at 19% in FY15. The share of life insurance as a proportion of financial savings in India was at its highest at 26.2% in FY10. However owing to the regulatory changes and downturn in capital markets, the share of life insurance declined sharply to 16% in FY14. In FY15 the share of life insurance increased to 19% partly due to the increase in the sale of linked products. Indian Life Insurance Sector Overview: The size of the Indian life insurance sector (excluding Sahara Life Insurance Company Limited) was Rs3.7 trillion on a total premium basis in fiscal 2016, making it the tenth largest life insurance market in the world and the fifth largest in Asia. The total premium in the Indian life insurance sector grew at a CAGR of approximately 17% between FY01 and FY16. Despite this, India continues to be an underpenetrated insurance market with a life insurance penetration of 2.7% in FY15, as compared to 3.7% in Thailand, 7.3% in South Korea and a global average of 3.5% in 2015. 2 Source: Choice Broking, Company data, RHP ICICI Prudential Life Insurance Co. Ltd. Source: Choice Broking, Company data, RHP 2.47 4.84 5.8 5.71 7.75 7.74 6.43 7.34 8.63 9.61 45% 49% 52% 43% 48% 43% 32% 33% 37% 40% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 Financial savings Financial Savings (Amt in trillions) Financial Savings as a % of Household… -20.0% 0.0% 20.0% 40.0% 60.0% 80.0% FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 Financial savings mix Currency Bank Deposits Life Insurance Fund Provident and Pension Fund Others 2717 1940 1719 688 215 178 153 43 43 17 15 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 Japan S.Korea US S.Africa Thailand Brazil China India Indonesia Turkey Russia Life Insurance Density (Prem. Per Capita (US$) in 2015 36% 50% 57% 52% 46% 37% 38% 38% 49% 52% 64% 50% 43% 48% 54% 63% 62% 62% 51% 48% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 Market share of Private Sector Companies and LIC Private LIC In 2015, the Government of India increased the maximum permissible shareholding of foreign investors from 26% of paid-up equity capital to 49%. This led to an inflow in foreign investments of US$1.13 billion (bn) in FY16, an approximate increase of 170% over FY15. According to CRISIL Research, Life insurance industry report, July 2016, the new business premium for Indian life insurance companies is expected to grow at a CAGR of 11-13% over the next five years. Some of the key catalysts for this growth are; Improving economic growth, low insurance penetration, increased financial savings, and a low sum assured to GDP ratio. Health Insurance is emerging as an opportunity for Insurance providers as only 17% of the total population in India has health insurance coverage as of March 31,2015. In addition, only about 20% of this health insurance coverage was provided by insurance providers (both life and general), with the remaining covered under government-sponsored schemes such as the Central Government Health Scheme and the Employee State Insurance Scheme
  • 3. FUNDAMENTAL RESEARCHSEBI CERTIFIED – RESEARCH ANALYST IPO Update Market Structure: The Indian life insurance sector can be classified both in terms of customer segments and products offered. The following chart sets forth the composition of new business premium in fiscal 2016 by customer type and by product 3 Source: Choice Broking, Company data, RHP ICICI Prudential Life Insurance Co. Ltd. Life Insurance Based on Customer Individual Single Premium Regular Premium Group Based on Product Non-Linked Participating Non- Participating Linked • Linked Products mainly consist of ULIPs which offer a combination of investment and protection where the customer can choose the level of life coverage, subject to minimum levels mandated by regulations. • Non Linked products consist of participating products and Non participating savings and annuity products. The Participating (par) products are those for which the surplus is shared with the policyholders in the form of bonuses. Non-participating products are those that offer benefits that are guaranteed in absolute terms at the beginning of the policy and do not provide any upside potential from the underlying fund performance • Group Products consists of Group term and other group products. Group term products provide life insurance coverage to a group of individuals, where, upon the death of a member, the sum assured is paid to the member’s nominee. Other group products include unit-linked and variable insurance products. Product Mix: ULIPs accounted for 92% and 75% of the new business premiums for private sector companies and the overall industry FY08 as compared to 43% and 13% in FY16. However the ULIP regulations introduced in September 2010, financial crisis, slowdown in economic growth and financial savings, volatility in equity markets, rising interest rates and high inflation led to change in the product mix. Indian life insurers introduced 177 new products in fiscal 2015, as compared to 147 new products in FY14. Life insurance companies launched nine products in FY15 for health insurance compared to only two new products in FY14. These products covered customers for serious diseases like cancer or other critical illnesses. Total Cost Ratio For the year ended March 31, 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Private Sector Companies 27.0% 25.6% 27.4% 25.8% 24.0% LIC 19.2% 17.5% 18.8% 22.0% 19.8% Industry 21.8% 20.0% 21.4% 23.0% 21.0% 0.0% 50.0% 100.0% Equity Debt Total expenses as % of total weighted received premiums Trend in investment portfolio of Life insurance sector: The sum assured by life insurance companies has increased significantly in recent years due to an increased focus on protection sales . The average new business premium per policy for the industry increased from Rs.10,343 in FY10 to Rs.16,508 in FY16. Private sector companies have higher average premiums than LIC. There has been a significant shift in the channel mix of the Indian life insurance sector from the earlier agency-only model to a diversified distribution mix (Individual agents contributed 91% of the business in FY07 while in FY16 they contributed only 68.5%, the corporate agents-Banks contributed only 5.6% in FY07 while in FY16 they contributed 24%). The direct distribution channel has also increased over the years for private sector companies. In fiscal 2016, direct sales contributed 9.6% of the new business premiums for private sector companies. The total claims paid by the life insurance sector grew at a CAGR of 12% between FY10 and FY15 with the Individual claim settlement ratio for the industry increasing from 95.6% in FY11 to 97.07% in FY15.
  • 4. FUNDAMENTAL RESEARCHSEBI CERTIFIED – RESEARCH ANALYST IPO Update Company Introduction: ICICI Prudential Life Insurance Co. Ltd. (ICICI Prudential) is the largest private sector life insurer in India by total premium and assets under management in fiscal 2016. ICICI Prudential, which is a joint venture between country’s largest private sector bank ICICI Bank Ltd. and Prudential Corporation Holdings Limited, a part of the Prudential Group, has gross premium income of Rs191.6 bn in FY16 and assets under management (AUM) at Rs1.1 trillion (tn). The company offers a range of insurance products include life insurance, health insurance and pension products and services. Starting operations in 2001, the company is the one of the first private sector life insurance companies in India and since fiscal 2002, the company has consistently generated the most new business premiums on a retail weighted received premium basis among all private sector life insurers in India. The company’s market share among all insurance companies in India was 11.6% in FY16 on a retail weighted received premium basis. Business Overview: ICICI Prudential offer a range of products to cater to the specific needs of customers in different life stages, enabling them to meet their long-term savings and protection needs through an extensive multi-channel sales network across India, including through the branches of bank partners, individual agents, corporate agents, employees, offices and website. Unit linked insurance products (ULIPs) comprised 82.6% of retail annualised premium equivalent (APE) in FY16 which increased from Rs22.1 bn in FY14 to Rs41.8 bn in FY16, representing a CAGR of 37.5%. ICICI Prudential’s 13th month persistency ratio in fiscal 2016 was 82.4%, which was one of the highest in the sector and expense ratio was 14.6% for fiscal 2016, one of the lowest among the private sector life insurance companies in India. The company follows a customer-centric, market-oriented approach in product design through a “4C Model”. Under the 4C Model, the company follows 4C perspectives which includes 1) products which meet different customer needs, provide better returns and are easy to understand, 2) products that are profitable and enhance our market position, 3) products that are easy to sell and offer distributors appropriate remuneration and 4) products that are innovative and offer better customer value than competitors. 4 Source: Choice Broking, Company data, RHP ICICI Prudential Life Insurance Co. Ltd. -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 0.0 50,000.0 100,000.0 150,000.0 200,000.0 250,000.0 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 Rsmn Net premium Income Premiums earned (Net) Growth (%) Source: Choice Broking, Company data, RHP 64.1% 83.1% 80.8% 18.2% 13.2% 14.1% 0.0% 20.0% 40.0% 60.0% 80.0% 100.0% 120.0% FY14 FY15 FY16 Product mix based on APE Other group products Pure protection (retail and group) products Retail non-par products Annualised Premium Equivalent FY14 FY15 FY16 Rs bn % Rs bn % Rs bn % Retail Life Insurance Products 33.6 97.5% 46.7 98.4% 50.6 97.9% Group Life Insurance Products 0.9 2.5% 0.8 1.6% 1.1 2.1% Total 34.5 100.0% 47.4 100.0% 51.7 100.0% 55% 60% 59% 29% 25% 27% 10% 7% 7% 6% 9% 10% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% FY14 FY15 FY16 Channel mix of retail APE Bancassurance Agency Corporate agency and brokers Direct sales
  • 5. FUNDAMENTAL RESEARCHSEBI CERTIFIED – RESEARCH ANALYST IPO Update Business strengths : Consistent leadership across cycles; well positioned to deliver industry leading growth: ICICI Prudential consistently generated the most new business premiums on a retail weighted received premium basis among all private sector life insurers in India for every year since FY02, responded successfully to the various regulatory changes since 2010. The company’s market share, on a retail weighted received premium basis, in the Indian life insurance sector increased from 5.9% in FY12 to 11.3% in FY16. Given the sharp focus on linked products & diversified multi distribution channel, the company is likely to deliver high growth going forward. ULIPs accounts for around 82.6% of its retail annualised premium equivalent in FY16. Delivering healthy return to shareholders: As on June 30, 2016 the company had Rs1.09 tn of assets under management, making it one of the largest fund managers in India of which 73% in linked assets. Over the last five fiscals, ICICI Prudential delivered healthy RoE in the range of 30-35% and also has a strong capital position with a solvency ratio of 320.5% by June 30, 2016. Besides, its expenses ratio is one of the lowest among the private life insurers and persistency ratio have been increasing in recent years. Value of new businesses grew by a 56% in FY16 driven by the improvement in the persistency ratio as well as the product mix. Robust risk management, resilient balance sheet and focus on cost efficiency and persistency have enabled the company to establish a track record of delivering results. Providing quality services to customers: The company’s ability to provide quality customer service is reflected in its low grievance ratio of 153 per 10,000 new policies issued, which compared favorably to the private sector average of around 345 per 10,000 new policies issued in FY16. Furthermore, claims settlement ratio for individual death claims of 96.2% was higher than most private sector life insurance companies, as compared to the private sector average of 89.4%. In the same year, over 99% of claim payouts were settled within the IRDAI-prescribed timeline of 30 days for claims. Diversified multi-channel distribution network: The company has 124,155 individual agents and over 4,500 branches of bank partners as of June 30, 2016 to sell its products and services. Apart from the largest shareholders, the company has also entered into a bancassurance relationship with Standard Chartered Bank and and Capital Small Finance Bank. Financial firms like ICICI Securities, India Infoline Insurance Brokers and Bluechip Insurance Broking also sell these products and services. The company also offers products to customers through employees, at offices and on website. The diversified channel mix enables the company to access different customer segments and outperform the market across business cycles on a retail weighted received premium basis. Business strategies: • To adequately leverage the business opportunities arising from low penetration level of insurance products in India and rapidly growing Indian life insurance industry • To focus on customer-centric approach spans the customer life cycle, from product development to customer service and claims management • Focus to ensure long-term safety, stability and growth of customers’ funds • As the company has India-wide presence, ICICI Prudential strategies to focus on key local markets, with a customised regional strategy to maintain and enhance position in these markets • To continue to identify and explore growth opportunities including emerging segments like health and pensions. • To focus more on expanding protection business as these products typically have higher margins. • To enhance focus on improving operational efficiency as it is essential to drive growth in value of new business • To achieve sustainable growth, ICICI Prudential plan to further diversify distribution architecture by exploring non- traditional channels (cross selling of products, digital channels) , while strengthening existing channels and relationships • Continue to focus on more digital usage in business processes • ICICI Prudential intend to focus on five main initiatives to drive digital agenda – 1) increasing digital marketing and sales, 2)utilising big data and machine learning techniques, 3)building a modular information technology platform, 4) digitising sales and service processes; and 5) partnering with organisations across the eco-system. Risks & Concerns • Changes in regulatory environment, adverse equity market fluctuations in India and changes in Interest rates • Larger share of business is coming from few products like ULIPs. Any constraint in selling these products due to future regulatory changes restricting or limiting the sale or marketing of these products, changes in customer preference or any other factor could have a material adverse effect on the business. • Increasing competition in the domestic insurance industry is an issue. Indian life insurance companies operate in a highly competitive space with 23 private sector companies and LIC. Mergers and acquisitions involving its competitors may create entities that have higher market share, greater resources and larger distribution networks than ICICI Prudential, thereby impacting its market positioning, business and financial performance. • Any termination of, or any adverse change to, its relationships with or performance of bancassurance partners may have adverse effect business, financial condition, results of operations and prospects of the company 5 ICICI Prudential Life Insurance Co. Ltd.
  • 6. FUNDAMENTAL RESEARCHSEBI CERTIFIED – RESEARCH ANALYST IPO Update Valuation and view: ICICI Prudential is one of the largest private sector insurance player in India consisting of 21.9% share in FY16 in terms of retail weighted received premium (RWRP) among private sector insurance companies and 11.3% among all insurance companies in India (public and private sector) Value of new business (VNB), which is the present value of future earnings of the new policies written during a period, grew by 52.6% YoY in FY16 to Rs4.12 bn and VNB margin also improved to 8% from 5.7% in FY16 Continued focus on cost efficiency and persistency, robust risk management have enabled the company to deliver healthy return ratios and strong growth in business. Net interest premium grew by a CAGR of 12.3% during FY13-FY16 and RoE remained healthy at around 30% during the same period. The company is likely to witness strong growth in net premium income driven by high growth in ULIPs, diversified multi-channel distribution network and favorable industry dynamics. Besides ICICI Bank, the company has also made partnership with Standard Chartered Bank and Capital Small Finance Bank Limited and is selling insurance products through 4,550 branches in the country. Bancassurance accounts for around 59% of retail annualised premium equivalent. The company has strong focus on cost control and thereby the cost to total weighted received premium (TWRP) declined from 17.9% in FY12 to 14.6% in FY16, one of the lowest ratio in the industry. Despite having strong focus on expense management, the company is also shifting product portfolios towards the higher margin business protection business, which current accounts for around 2.5% of APE in FY16 compared to 1.5% in FY15. Largest dependence on retail ULIPS business, increasing competition in insurance segment and uncertainty over rules and regulations for sector represented key concerns for the business. At higher price band of Rs334, ICICI Prudential's valued at Rs479,390 mn or P/EV multiple of 3.4(x) of FY16 EVPS, which is around 47% premium to last stake sale by ICICI bank when it sold 6% stake for around Rs19,500 mn valuing the the company at Rs325,000 mn. However, the valuation appears attractive if we compare the recent share swap agreement between HDFC Life and Max life which valued at P/EVPS multiple of 4.2(x) of FY16 EV. Thus, keeping in mind the above observations, we recommend a “Subscribe” rating for the public issue 6 ICICI Prudential Life Insurance Co. Ltd. Particulars ICICI Prudential Life HDFC Standard Life SBI Life Max Life Kotak Mahindra Old Mutual Life Market Share Among Private Companies (On the Basis of RWRP fro FY16) 21.9% 14.7% 18.8% 9.3% 4.1% Product Mix (New Business Premium - FY16) Linked 82.3% 43.7% 45.6% 21.1% 26.4% Non Linked 17.7% 56.3% 54.4% 78.9% 73.6% AUM (Rs. Billion) 1,001.8 670.0 713.0 311.0 136.0 ROE three year average (FY16) 34.2% 35.3% 22.1% 21.4% 21.2% Solvency ratio (as on March 31,2016) 320.0% 198.0% 212.0% 343.0% 311.0% Claims settlement ratio (individual)(FY16) 96.2% 95.0% 95.8% 96.2% 89.1% Number of branches (Bancassurance) 4,550 4,791 22,606 3,679 1,333
  • 7. FUNDAMENTAL RESEARCHSEBI CERTIFIED – RESEARCH ANALYST IPO Update 7 ICICI Prudential Life Insurance Co. Ltd. Policyholder's account (Standalone' Rs mn) Particulars FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 Q1FY17 Premiums earned (Net) 134,172.4 122,826.5 151,604.5 189,987.0 35,087.8 Income from investments 61,866.8 92,126.0 187,385.4 12,083.6 53,563.8 Other income 240.7 172.5 179.2 208.8 139.3 Contribution from shareholders' accounts 6,272.90 958.8 388.5 52.8 Total Income (A) 202,552.8 216,083.8 339,557.6 202,279.4 88,843.7 Commission 7,654.2 6,274.8 5,531.7 6,199.8 1,257.3 Operating expenses 17,131.0 16,161.7 16,543.3 18,883.3 5,520.1 Benefits paid (Net) 132,927.0 120,833.0 122,600.0 124,248.0 29,281.0 Liabilities against life policies 25931.0 56617.0 179561.0 35155.0 49570.0 Others 3350.0 3196.0 3132.0 3643.0 942.0 Provision for tax 350.4 481.4 511.7 703.5 4.2 Total B 187,343.6 203,563.9 327,879.7 188,832.6 86,574.6 Surplus/deficit 15,209.2 12,519.9 11,677.9 13,446.8 2,269.1 Transfer to shareholders' account 17,731.90 12,635.10 11,372.00 12,102.90 2,496.80 Future being used for future appropriation -2,523.00 -115.3 306.2 1,344.20 -227.1 Shareholders account FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 Q1FY17 Transferred from Policyholders' account 17,731.90 12,635.10 11,372.00 12,102.90 2,496.80 Income from investments 4161 3947 5374 5995.8 1957 Total A 21,892.9 16,582.1 16,746.0 18,098.7 4,453.8 Expenses (apart from insurance) 58.2 114.3 453.4 313.3 72.8 Contribution to policyholder account 6,272.90 958.8 388.5 52.8 Others 263 43.9 Total B 6,331.1 1,336.1 841.9 357.2 125.6 Profit/loss before tax 15,561.8 15,246.0 15,904.1 17,741.5 4,328.2 Provisions for tax 407.0 -379.0 -498.0 1,211.0 278.0 PAT 15,154.8 15,625.0 16,402.1 16,530.5 4,050.2 Balance sheet FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 Q1FY17 Share capital 14,289.4 14,292.6 14,317.2 14,323.2 14,328.7 Reserves & surplus 34,123.0 35,525.0 38,337.0 38,926.0 43,112.0 Policyholders' funds Policy liabilities 110,276.0 138,124.9 172,587.5 202,547.9 211,375.0 Provision for linked liabilities 573,885.9 602,654.2 747,752.7 752,947.2 793,689.6 Fair value change 3,183.0 5,463.0 12,317.0 10,289.0 13,702.0 Funds for future appropriation 5,082.5 4,967.2 5,273.4 6,617.6 6,390.0 Source of funds 740,839.8 801,026.9 990,584.8 1,025,650.9 1,082,597.3 Investments Shareholders 49,188.0 53,488.0 58,568.0 62,157.0 55,468.0 Policyholders 112,770.0 144,426.0 188,580.0 215,156.0 229,720.0 Assets held for linked liablilities 575,208.0 603,104.0 747,775.0 752,958.0 793,698.0 Loans 87 119 201 443 501.4 Fixed assets 1,722.50 2,015.40 2,150.00 2,195.40 2,132.40 Net current assets -6,942.0 -8,098.0 -6,689.0 -7,258.0 1,077.0 Misc expenditures 8,805.0 5,972.0 Application of funds 740,838.5 801,026.9 990,584.8 1,025,651.9 1,082,597.3 Diff 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
  • 8. FUNDAMENTAL RESEARCHSEBI CERTIFIED – RESEARCH ANALYST 8 INITIATING COVERAGE Choice Equity Broking Pvt. Ltd. Choice House, Shree Shakambhari Corporate Park, Plt No: -156-158, J.B. Nagar, Andheri (East), Mumbai - 400 099. +91-022-6707 9999 +91-022-6707 9959 www.choiceindia.com Choice’s Rating Rationale The price target for a large cap stock represents the value the analyst expects the stock to reach over next 12 months. For a stock to be classified as Outperform, the expected return must exceed the local risk free return by at least 5% over the next 12 months. For a stock to be classified as Underperform, the stock return must be below the local risk free return by at least 5% over the next 12 months. Stocks between these bands are classified as Neutral. Disclaimer This is solely for information of clients of Choice Broking and does not construe to be an investment advice. It is also not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase and sale of any financial instruments. Any action taken by you on the basis of the information contained herein is your responsibility alone and Choice Broking its subsidiaries or its employees or associates will not be liable in any manner for the consequences of such action taken by you. We have exercised due diligence in checking the correctness and authenticity of the information contained in this recommendation, but Choice Broking or any of its subsidiaries or associates or employees shall not be in any way responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person from any inadvertent error in the information contained in this recommendation or any action taken on basis of this information. This report is based on the fundamental analysis with a view to forecast future price. The Research analysts for this report certifies that all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect his or her personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities, and no part of his or her compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly related to specific recommendations or views expressed in this report. Choice Broking has based this document on information obtained from sources it believes to be reliable but which it has not independently verified; Choice Broking makes no guarantee, representation or warranty and accepts no responsibility or liability as to its accuracy or completeness. The opinions contained within the report are based upon publicly available information at the time of publication and are subject to change without notice. The information and any disclosures provided herein are in summary form and have been prepared for informational purposes. The recommendations and suggested price levels are intended purely for stock market investment purposes. The recommendations are valid for the day of the report and will remain valid till the target period. The information and any disclosures provided herein may be considered confidential. Any use, distribution, modification, copying, forwarding or disclosure by any person is strictly prohibited. The information and any disclosures provided herein do not constitute a solicitation or offer to purchase or sell any security or other financial product or instrument. The current performance may be unaudited. Past performance does not guarantee future returns. There can be no assurance that investments will achieve any targeted rates of return, and there is no guarantee against the loss of your entire investment. POTENTIAL CONFLICT OF INTEREST DISCLOSURE (as on date of report) Disclosure of interest statement – • Analyst interest of the stock /Instrument(s): - No. • Firm interest of the stock / Instrument (s): - No. Satish Kumar Digitally signed by Satish Kumar DN: cn=Satish Kumar, o=Choice Equity Broking Pvt. Ltd., ou=Research Analyst, email=satish.kumar@choiceindia.com, c=US Date: 2016.09.16 13:50:09 +05'30'