A look at possible scenarios in IPL 2015

1. IPL 2015 - 8 games to go
A bunch of scenarios

2. What’s this all about?
1. Basically, I’ve looked at all 256 possible combinations of results in
the remaining 8 games. Why? I guess I must be jobless.
2. Yes, I have ignored the possibility of matches being abandoned.
Why? Because I’m not that jobless.
3. I’ve then checked out the scenarios in which each team qualifies.
Right now, I’m not looking at the chances of finishing in the first 2.
Merely qualifying is enough. Why? Check point 2.

3. Overall Scenario
DD CSK KXP RCB MI KKR SH RR
Qualifies directly 0 249 0 172 56 196 168 108
Tied for qualification 0 7 0 16 32 16 40 45
Does not qualify 256 0 256 68 168 44 48 103
Probability 0% 99% 0% 70% 28% 80% 73% 51%
Out of 256 possible combinations of results…
Note: The probability figure has been calculated assuming each match is 50:50 & NRR battles are 50% (not true in case of triple ties)
So, the likely qualifiers seem to be CSK, KKR, SH & RCB.
But then, I guess, you knew that already.

4. Masters of their fate
DD CSK KXP RCB MI KKR SH RR
Qualifies directly 0 64 0 32 56 64 64 104
Tied for qualification 0 0 0 0 8 0 0 21
Does not qualify 64 0 64 0 0 0 0 3
What if a team wins all its remaining games
Again CSK, KKR, SH & RCB don’t need to depend on anyone as long as they win.
And in a way, DD & KXP too are in that situation.
MI & RR however, will be keenly following other games.

5. Unusual Situations
If CSK loses both its matches, MI wins both its matches,
RR wins its match and SH beats RCB,
we’ll have 4 teams - CSK, MI, SH & RR tied at 16 points.
The other 2 matches - KXP vs RCB and RCB vs DD become very crucial.
If RCB wins both these matches, RCB goes to 17 points,
while CSK, MI, SH & RR will be at 16, and fight for three play-off spots.
If RCB loses one of these matches (apart from losing to SH), they are out
and we’ll have 4 teams tied for 1st place. What fun.

6. Who do I support in the next 2 games
If you support… DD vs CSK KXP vs RCB
DD Support DD (if you still can) Go on a Dharna
CSK Support CSK (you anyway will) If DD beat CSK, then a KXP victory will help. A bit.
KXP Support DD. You have a lot in common. Pray for a moral victory.
RCB Complete indifference. Except for the Cauvery issue. RCB. RCB.RCB.RCB.
MI Support CSK. Doesn’t help. Just to spite the Delhi folks. A KXP victory would help a lot.
KKR Yawn! You’re nearly there anyway. A KXP victory will get you closer.
SH Do whatever Srikkanth tells you. Yet again, a KXP victory would help.
RR A DD victory will help marginally. Join all the other teams. A KXP victory helps you.

7. FAQ
Q. Are you really this jobless?
A. Hehe. Not really. But these things don’t take that much time.
Q. Do you plan to do this again?
A. Er… yes. With 4 games to go, if things are interesting.
Q. Can I also try something like this?
A. Sure. Lemme know in the comments. I’ll mail the xl sheet with scenarios to you.