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Investing in the New Normal:
        2012 Experience
       2013 Expectations


                 Presented by:
              Jeff Finkelstein, CIM
       Vice President & Portfolio Manager
           RBC Dominion Securities


               December 4, 2012
A Little Market Humor …




                          2
Part A: Corporate Fundamentals Are Generally Fine




                                                    3
Corporate Profits Never Higher




                                 4
Corporate Cash Levels Never Higher




                                     5
Aggregate Employee Income Never Better




                                         6
Cost of Corporate Borrowing Never Lower




                                          7
Part B: 2012 A Retrospective




                               8
Sideways Long-Term Market Continues

                                                                        S&P 500 (1871 to Present)

10000




 1000                                                                                                                                                               +1,258%
                                                                                                                                                                     18-Yrs

                                                                                                                                                                                                              11-Yrs


  100
                                                                                                                    +531%
                                                                                                                    18-Yrs
                                                                               +290%
                                                                                6-Yrs
               +141%                    +161%                                                                                                          14-Yrs
                4-Yrs                   10-Yrs
   10



                                                                 21-Yrs                                     19-Yrs
                                19-Yrs
    1
        1871
                1875
                       1880
                              1885
                                     1890
                                            1894
                                                   1899
                                                          1904
                                                                 1909
                                                                        1913
                                                                                1918
                                                                                       1923
                                                                                              1928
                                                                                                     1932
                                                                                                            1937
                                                                                                                   1942
                                                                                                                          1947
                                                                                                                                 1951
                                                                                                                                        1956
                                                                                                                                               1961
                                                                                                                                                      1966
                                                                                                                                                             1970
                                                                                                                                                                    1975
                                                                                                                                                                           1980
                                                                                                                                                                                  1985
                                                                                                                                                                                         1989
                                                                                                                                                                                                1994
                                                                                                                                                                                                       1999
                                                                                                                                                                                                              2004
                                                                                                                                                                                                                     2008
                                                                                                                                                                                                                            9
Psychology Drives Market Performance




                                       10
Volatile Cycles Within the Sideways Bear Market



                                 +75%
                                               +90%




                     -41%
                  -41%
                                        -49%


              July 1999


                                                      11
Dynamic Balance of Market Forces
    LOW VALUATIONS            EUROPEAN SLOW DOWN



  EXTREME LOW RATES               PERSISTENT US
                                  UNEMPLOYMENT



OTHER MONETARY STIMULUS        CONSUMER / BUSINESS
                                    CAUTION


STRENGTHENING DOMESTIC       FISCAL CLIFF / DEBT CEILING
       ECONOMY


STRENGTHENING CONSUMER          FEARS OF SOVEREIGN
      CONFIDENCE                    DEFAULTS

           Positive               Negative
                                                           12
A Closer Look at the Current Cycle (U.S)




                                                        D
                                                  C

                                       B         2012

                    A
                        A – European Debt Contagion
                        B – European & US Debt
                        C – European Debt
                        D – US Fiscal Cliff


                                                            13
The TSX Burdened by Resource Emphasis




                                            2012




                   A                   B     C     D

              A – European Debt Contagion
              B – European & US Debt
              C – European Debt
              D – US Fiscal Cliff


                                                       14
But Equity Income is Still Doing Fine




                                              2012
                                                     D
                                               C

                                 B
                 A
                        A – European Debt Contagion
                        B – European & US Debt
                        C – European Debt
                        D – US Fiscal Cliff


                                                         15
Part C: Structural Market Dynamics:
    Investor Group Psychology




                                      16
Cycles are a Fact of Life




                            17
Impact of Pessimism Illustrated



1999 P/E ratio of 43                          2012 P/E ratio of 15




                           -41%


               Between 1999 and 2012 – Profits more than doubled
               but with no market price growth over the decade



                                                                     18
Impact on RBC Shares




  Yield    2.8%    Yield    3.2%    Yield    4.1%
  Dividend $1.62   Dividend $2.00   Dividend $2.28
  EPS      $4.00   EPS      $4.22   EPS      $4.96
    May 2007         April 2010     November 2012




                                                 19
Short-Term Market Prices Controlled by Psychology




                                                    20
Equity Correlation


About 20% of the trading volume of an equity actually
         depends upon its fundamentals.




                                                        21
Index ETFs + Computer Trading Accelerate This




                                                22
Large Caps & Defensive Sectors are Most Highly
                 Correlated




                                                 23
Part D: Structural Market Dynamics:
        Policy and Politics




                                      24
United States

   DEBT                              DEBT


MORTGAGES &                          CREDIT
  HELOCS                         DERIVATIVES



                     BANKS


              NATIONAL GOVERNMENTS



       TAXPAYERS               CENTRAL BANKS


                                               25
Central Bank
Current Objectives:
    1. Shrink the relative government debt burden (by stimulating GDP growth)
    2. Shrink the government’s debt service cost
    3. Increase personal wealth → increased consumer spending → increased
       US employment
    4. Increase business investment
Current Actions:
    1. Force down overnight interest rates – Zero Interest Rate Policy to 2015
    2. Force down 10-year Treasury rates - $40B/ month in market buying
    3. Force down mortgage bond rates - $40B/ month in market buying
Indirect Consequences:
Financial Repression – prolonged low interest rates punish conservative savers
    •   Worried retail investors
    •   Conservative pension funds

                                                                                 26
Financial Repression in Action



Lowest rates in history are deliberately punitive for
cautious savers and deliberately supportive for investors
(and other spenders).




                          10-Year US rate now at 1.61%


                                                            27
No Impact of Money Printing on Growth or Inflation




                                                     28
Part E: Search for Yield and Equity Income




                                             29
Investors Hunt for Investment Income
SHORT TERM RATES
Frozen to mid-2015


           10-YEAR TREASURIES
               Operation Twist


                                 AGENCY MBS     CORPORATE CREDIT      CORPORATE CREDIT
                                  QE Infinity   (Investment Grade)   (High Yield & Emerging)


                                                 EQUITY INCOME          EQUITY INCOME
                                                 (Dividend Payers)     (Dividend Growers)


                                                                       EQUITY GROWTH




                                                                                            30
S&P500 Historical Yield

                 10.00%

                 9.00%

                 8.00%

                 7.00%
DIVIDEND YIELD




                 6.00%
                                                                                           80s & 90s bull
                 5.00%

                 4.00%

                 3.00%

                 2.00%                                                      70s bear

                 1.00%
                                                                                                               2000 bear
                 0.00%
                    32
                          36
                               40
                                    44
                                         48
                                              52
                                                   56
                                                        60
                                                             64
                                                                  68
                                                                       72
                                                                            76
                                                                                 80
                                                                                      84
                                                                                           88
                                                                                                92
                                                                                                     96
                                                                                                          00
                                                                                                               04
                                                                                                                    08
                                                                                                                         12
                   19
                          19
                               19
                                    19
                                         19
                                              19
                                                   19
                                                        19
                                                             19
                                                                  19
                                                                       19
                                                                            19
                                                                                 19
                                                                                      19
                                                                                           19
                                                                                                19
                                                                                                     19
                                                                                                          20
                                                                                                               20
                                                                                                                    20
                                                                                                                         20
                                                                                                                              31
Long Term Earnings Consistency




                 Generally earnings, dividends &
                 dividend growth track the real
                 economy, not speculative fears.




                                                   32
Profit & payout consistency for domestic, defensive,
                dividend-rich companies


  Consistent Annual                                          2012 Yield: 5.1%
  Dividend: $1.54 per
        Share


2008 Yield: 7.7%


                                                    2011 Yield: 6.4%

                                 2010 Yield: 7.0%


    -62%



                        2009 Yield: 18.5%




                                                                                33
Profit & payout consistency for domestic, defensive,
              dividend-rich companies


                                                            2010 Yield: 4.7%
             5 Years
                                                            Dividends Paid: $1.05
     Dividend Growth: 25%
   Stock Price Growth: 230%                 2010 Yield: 6.0%
                                            Dividends Paid: $0.96




2008 Yield: 8.8%
Dividends Paid: $0.84                             2010 Yield: 6.9%
                                                  Dividends Paid: $0.90

     -43%                     2009 Yield: 15.0%
                              Dividends Paid: $0.84




                                                                                    34
Long Term Outperformance of Equity Income




                                            35
Low Volatility of Equity Income




Notably less
market price
volatility than
the market




                                                    36
Some Examples of 2012 Dividend Growers

Altagas                     +4.3%
Brookfield Infrastructure   +7.0%
Enercare                    +1.8%
InterPipeline               +5.7%
Bank of Nova Scotia         +3.6%
Bank of Montreal            +3.0%
TD Bank                     +5.9%
Canadian Apartments REIT    +4.0%
BCE                         +10.0%
Telus                       +10.0%
Medical Facilities          +2.3%
Apple                       +1.8% (Initiated 2012)
Nike                        +17.0%
VF Corp                     +21.0%
Yum Brands                  +17.5%
                                                     37
Equity Income Investments Outperform




                                          3 Year   5 Year   10 Year
S&P/TSX Income Trust Total Return Index   24.3%    12.8%    16.2%
S&P/TSX Capped REIT Total Return Index    23.4%    9.2%     13.1%
S&P 500 Total Return (US)                 13.2%    0.4%      6.9%
DJ Stoxx 50 Price Return (Europe)         -2.6%    -10.3%    2.6%
MSCI World Index Price Return (World)     5.6%     -5.0%     5.1%




                                                                      38
Part F: 2013 Outlook




                       39
Continued Strength in Equity Income




                                                   REITs




                                                   TSX


                                            2012


                  Strong Dividend Support




                                                         40
Continued Strength in the U.S.



                                            2012
                                                   U.S



                                                   Canada




           US led by Consumer, Technology
           and Health Companies
           Canada hindered by Resources



                                                         41
Expectations of Moderate Growth in Canada




                                            42
And in the U.S.




                  43
Recovery Leads to a Mild Increase in Long-Term
          Interest Rates in Canada




                                                 44
And in the U.S.




                  45
Canadian Dollar Remains at Least at Parity




                                             46
Inflation is Controlled




                          47
No Crisis in Canadian House Prices Forecast




                                              48
Other Macro Future Trends
Demographics
   • Powerful growth needed for reliable retirement income “Personal Pension Plans”
   • Desire for low volatility; high confidence investments
US Housing Recovery
   • Slow turnaround has implications for consumer confidence, retail, resources, job
   growth
Technology
   • As new technologies mature there is more competition, less dominance among
   the consumer brand names
   • The new “App Economy” has added 500,000 US jobs
   • Growth of the “Cloud”
   • Technology infrastructure has an interesting risk / reward (telecom services,
   broadcast towers and data storage)



                                                                                     49
Energy
   • Based on new drilling technologies, US oil and gas production will eventually
   outpace Saudi Arabia
   • Giant need for new infrastructure (e.g. pipelines)
   • Growing environmentalism (indirect impact of Hurricane Sandy)
   • US manufacturing benefits from decreased energy input costs
   • Will Canada’s oil and gas be stranded?
Consumer
   • Increasing wealth transfer to emerging Asia (and they love consuming global
   brands)
   • Slow recovery of NA middle class
   • Southeast US labor rates increasingly competitive with Shenzhen
   • Global lifestyle changes



                                                                                     50
Health Care
    • Aging population requires increased services
    • “Obamacare” in US, now ratified, increases by 15% the eligible clientele for
    health services
Financial Services
    • Tighter government controls leads to slower long term growth (and renewed
    interest in the retail client)
    • Growing international reputation and global presence of Canadian banks
              • RBC sixth in world in wealth management, twelfth in total assets
              • Relative decline of the US and European banks
              • Fun thought: Toronto as the next Zurich?
Emerging Markets
    • New growth centres emerging (SE Asia, East Europe) – but highly speculative




                                                                                     51
Any further questions?




                         56
2013 Client Service Additions




www.TFGBLOGSPOT.com     TFG Newsletter
What to Expect from Our Enhanced
           Client Communications…
Client focused content generated to keep you informed
   of…

•   Economic and Market Trends and Updates
•   Current and Relevant Wealth Management News
•   Administrative Changes and Client Service Updates
•   The Finkelstein Group Updates and Items of Interest

               All accessible to you online
              24 hours a day, 7 days a week!
Thank You from The Finkelstein Group
Investment Trust Units are sold by RBC Dominion Securities Inc. There may be
commissions, trailing commissions, management fees and expenses associated with
Investment Trust investments. Please read the prospectus before investing.
Investment Trusts are not guaranteed, their values change frequently and past
performance may not be repeated. This commentary is based on information that is
believed to be accurate at the time of writing, and is subject to change. All opinions
and estimates contained in this report constitute RBC Dominion Securities Inc.’s
judgment as of the date of this report, are subject to change without notice and are
provided in good faith but without legal responsibility. Interest rates, market
conditions and other investment factors are subject to change. Past performance may
not be repeated. The information provided is intended only to illustrate certain
historical returns and is not intended to reflect future values or returns. RBC
Dominion Securities Inc. and its affiliates may have an investment banking or other
relationship with some or all of the issuers mentioned herein and may trade in any of
the securities mentioned herein either for their own account or the accounts of their
customers. RBC Dominion Securities Inc. and its affiliates also may issue options on
securities mentioned herein and may trade in options issued by others. Accordingly,
RBC Dominion Securities Inc. or its affiliates may at any time have a long or short
position in any such security or option thereon. RBC Dominion Securities Inc.* and
Royal Bank of Canada are separate corporate entities which are affiliated. *Member-
Canadian Investor Protection Fund.

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Investing inthe new_normal_slide_share

  • 1. Investing in the New Normal: 2012 Experience 2013 Expectations Presented by: Jeff Finkelstein, CIM Vice President & Portfolio Manager RBC Dominion Securities December 4, 2012
  • 2. A Little Market Humor … 2
  • 3. Part A: Corporate Fundamentals Are Generally Fine 3
  • 5. Corporate Cash Levels Never Higher 5
  • 6. Aggregate Employee Income Never Better 6
  • 7. Cost of Corporate Borrowing Never Lower 7
  • 8. Part B: 2012 A Retrospective 8
  • 9. Sideways Long-Term Market Continues S&P 500 (1871 to Present) 10000 1000 +1,258% 18-Yrs 11-Yrs 100 +531% 18-Yrs +290% 6-Yrs +141% +161% 14-Yrs 4-Yrs 10-Yrs 10 21-Yrs 19-Yrs 19-Yrs 1 1871 1875 1880 1885 1890 1894 1899 1904 1909 1913 1918 1923 1928 1932 1937 1942 1947 1951 1956 1961 1966 1970 1975 1980 1985 1989 1994 1999 2004 2008 9
  • 10. Psychology Drives Market Performance 10
  • 11. Volatile Cycles Within the Sideways Bear Market +75% +90% -41% -41% -49% July 1999 11
  • 12. Dynamic Balance of Market Forces LOW VALUATIONS EUROPEAN SLOW DOWN EXTREME LOW RATES PERSISTENT US UNEMPLOYMENT OTHER MONETARY STIMULUS CONSUMER / BUSINESS CAUTION STRENGTHENING DOMESTIC FISCAL CLIFF / DEBT CEILING ECONOMY STRENGTHENING CONSUMER FEARS OF SOVEREIGN CONFIDENCE DEFAULTS Positive Negative 12
  • 13. A Closer Look at the Current Cycle (U.S) D C B 2012 A A – European Debt Contagion B – European & US Debt C – European Debt D – US Fiscal Cliff 13
  • 14. The TSX Burdened by Resource Emphasis 2012 A B C D A – European Debt Contagion B – European & US Debt C – European Debt D – US Fiscal Cliff 14
  • 15. But Equity Income is Still Doing Fine 2012 D C B A A – European Debt Contagion B – European & US Debt C – European Debt D – US Fiscal Cliff 15
  • 16. Part C: Structural Market Dynamics: Investor Group Psychology 16
  • 17. Cycles are a Fact of Life 17
  • 18. Impact of Pessimism Illustrated 1999 P/E ratio of 43 2012 P/E ratio of 15 -41% Between 1999 and 2012 – Profits more than doubled but with no market price growth over the decade 18
  • 19. Impact on RBC Shares Yield 2.8% Yield 3.2% Yield 4.1% Dividend $1.62 Dividend $2.00 Dividend $2.28 EPS $4.00 EPS $4.22 EPS $4.96 May 2007 April 2010 November 2012 19
  • 20. Short-Term Market Prices Controlled by Psychology 20
  • 21. Equity Correlation About 20% of the trading volume of an equity actually depends upon its fundamentals. 21
  • 22. Index ETFs + Computer Trading Accelerate This 22
  • 23. Large Caps & Defensive Sectors are Most Highly Correlated 23
  • 24. Part D: Structural Market Dynamics: Policy and Politics 24
  • 25. United States DEBT DEBT MORTGAGES & CREDIT HELOCS DERIVATIVES BANKS NATIONAL GOVERNMENTS TAXPAYERS CENTRAL BANKS 25
  • 26. Central Bank Current Objectives: 1. Shrink the relative government debt burden (by stimulating GDP growth) 2. Shrink the government’s debt service cost 3. Increase personal wealth → increased consumer spending → increased US employment 4. Increase business investment Current Actions: 1. Force down overnight interest rates – Zero Interest Rate Policy to 2015 2. Force down 10-year Treasury rates - $40B/ month in market buying 3. Force down mortgage bond rates - $40B/ month in market buying Indirect Consequences: Financial Repression – prolonged low interest rates punish conservative savers • Worried retail investors • Conservative pension funds 26
  • 27. Financial Repression in Action Lowest rates in history are deliberately punitive for cautious savers and deliberately supportive for investors (and other spenders). 10-Year US rate now at 1.61% 27
  • 28. No Impact of Money Printing on Growth or Inflation 28
  • 29. Part E: Search for Yield and Equity Income 29
  • 30. Investors Hunt for Investment Income SHORT TERM RATES Frozen to mid-2015 10-YEAR TREASURIES Operation Twist AGENCY MBS CORPORATE CREDIT CORPORATE CREDIT QE Infinity (Investment Grade) (High Yield & Emerging) EQUITY INCOME EQUITY INCOME (Dividend Payers) (Dividend Growers) EQUITY GROWTH 30
  • 31. S&P500 Historical Yield 10.00% 9.00% 8.00% 7.00% DIVIDEND YIELD 6.00% 80s & 90s bull 5.00% 4.00% 3.00% 2.00% 70s bear 1.00% 2000 bear 0.00% 32 36 40 44 48 52 56 60 64 68 72 76 80 84 88 92 96 00 04 08 12 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 20 20 20 20 31
  • 32. Long Term Earnings Consistency Generally earnings, dividends & dividend growth track the real economy, not speculative fears. 32
  • 33. Profit & payout consistency for domestic, defensive, dividend-rich companies Consistent Annual 2012 Yield: 5.1% Dividend: $1.54 per Share 2008 Yield: 7.7% 2011 Yield: 6.4% 2010 Yield: 7.0% -62% 2009 Yield: 18.5% 33
  • 34. Profit & payout consistency for domestic, defensive, dividend-rich companies 2010 Yield: 4.7% 5 Years Dividends Paid: $1.05 Dividend Growth: 25% Stock Price Growth: 230% 2010 Yield: 6.0% Dividends Paid: $0.96 2008 Yield: 8.8% Dividends Paid: $0.84 2010 Yield: 6.9% Dividends Paid: $0.90 -43% 2009 Yield: 15.0% Dividends Paid: $0.84 34
  • 35. Long Term Outperformance of Equity Income 35
  • 36. Low Volatility of Equity Income Notably less market price volatility than the market 36
  • 37. Some Examples of 2012 Dividend Growers Altagas +4.3% Brookfield Infrastructure +7.0% Enercare +1.8% InterPipeline +5.7% Bank of Nova Scotia +3.6% Bank of Montreal +3.0% TD Bank +5.9% Canadian Apartments REIT +4.0% BCE +10.0% Telus +10.0% Medical Facilities +2.3% Apple +1.8% (Initiated 2012) Nike +17.0% VF Corp +21.0% Yum Brands +17.5% 37
  • 38. Equity Income Investments Outperform 3 Year 5 Year 10 Year S&P/TSX Income Trust Total Return Index 24.3% 12.8% 16.2% S&P/TSX Capped REIT Total Return Index 23.4% 9.2% 13.1% S&P 500 Total Return (US) 13.2% 0.4% 6.9% DJ Stoxx 50 Price Return (Europe) -2.6% -10.3% 2.6% MSCI World Index Price Return (World) 5.6% -5.0% 5.1% 38
  • 39. Part F: 2013 Outlook 39
  • 40. Continued Strength in Equity Income REITs TSX 2012 Strong Dividend Support 40
  • 41. Continued Strength in the U.S. 2012 U.S Canada US led by Consumer, Technology and Health Companies Canada hindered by Resources 41
  • 42. Expectations of Moderate Growth in Canada 42
  • 43. And in the U.S. 43
  • 44. Recovery Leads to a Mild Increase in Long-Term Interest Rates in Canada 44
  • 45. And in the U.S. 45
  • 46. Canadian Dollar Remains at Least at Parity 46
  • 48. No Crisis in Canadian House Prices Forecast 48
  • 49. Other Macro Future Trends Demographics • Powerful growth needed for reliable retirement income “Personal Pension Plans” • Desire for low volatility; high confidence investments US Housing Recovery • Slow turnaround has implications for consumer confidence, retail, resources, job growth Technology • As new technologies mature there is more competition, less dominance among the consumer brand names • The new “App Economy” has added 500,000 US jobs • Growth of the “Cloud” • Technology infrastructure has an interesting risk / reward (telecom services, broadcast towers and data storage) 49
  • 50. Energy • Based on new drilling technologies, US oil and gas production will eventually outpace Saudi Arabia • Giant need for new infrastructure (e.g. pipelines) • Growing environmentalism (indirect impact of Hurricane Sandy) • US manufacturing benefits from decreased energy input costs • Will Canada’s oil and gas be stranded? Consumer • Increasing wealth transfer to emerging Asia (and they love consuming global brands) • Slow recovery of NA middle class • Southeast US labor rates increasingly competitive with Shenzhen • Global lifestyle changes 50
  • 51. Health Care • Aging population requires increased services • “Obamacare” in US, now ratified, increases by 15% the eligible clientele for health services Financial Services • Tighter government controls leads to slower long term growth (and renewed interest in the retail client) • Growing international reputation and global presence of Canadian banks • RBC sixth in world in wealth management, twelfth in total assets • Relative decline of the US and European banks • Fun thought: Toronto as the next Zurich? Emerging Markets • New growth centres emerging (SE Asia, East Europe) – but highly speculative 51
  • 53. 2013 Client Service Additions www.TFGBLOGSPOT.com TFG Newsletter
  • 54. What to Expect from Our Enhanced Client Communications… Client focused content generated to keep you informed of… • Economic and Market Trends and Updates • Current and Relevant Wealth Management News • Administrative Changes and Client Service Updates • The Finkelstein Group Updates and Items of Interest All accessible to you online 24 hours a day, 7 days a week!
  • 55. Thank You from The Finkelstein Group
  • 56. Investment Trust Units are sold by RBC Dominion Securities Inc. There may be commissions, trailing commissions, management fees and expenses associated with Investment Trust investments. Please read the prospectus before investing. Investment Trusts are not guaranteed, their values change frequently and past performance may not be repeated. This commentary is based on information that is believed to be accurate at the time of writing, and is subject to change. All opinions and estimates contained in this report constitute RBC Dominion Securities Inc.’s judgment as of the date of this report, are subject to change without notice and are provided in good faith but without legal responsibility. Interest rates, market conditions and other investment factors are subject to change. Past performance may not be repeated. The information provided is intended only to illustrate certain historical returns and is not intended to reflect future values or returns. RBC Dominion Securities Inc. and its affiliates may have an investment banking or other relationship with some or all of the issuers mentioned herein and may trade in any of the securities mentioned herein either for their own account or the accounts of their customers. RBC Dominion Securities Inc. and its affiliates also may issue options on securities mentioned herein and may trade in options issued by others. Accordingly, RBC Dominion Securities Inc. or its affiliates may at any time have a long or short position in any such security or option thereon. RBC Dominion Securities Inc.* and Royal Bank of Canada are separate corporate entities which are affiliated. *Member- Canadian Investor Protection Fund.