Agent-based modeling (ABM) is introduced as a technique for modeling customer behavior. ABM takes a bottom-up approach by modeling individual agents and their interactions to understand how their behaviors influence the system as a whole. The key features of ABM are modeling autonomous agents, their interactions, and allowing the model to develop over time through those interactions to emerge macro-level behaviors without further intervention. ABM is useful for complex systems that cannot be easily modeled with mathematical or statistical equations due to their non-linear and adaptive nature.
Introduction of Agent Based Modeling (ABM) for Customer Behavior Model yudiyasik
This document introduces agent-based modeling (ABM) for modeling customer behavior. It discusses concepts from economics, marketing, consumer behavior, and modeling. ABM is introduced as a modeling technique that can model complex, non-linear systems like human behavior using a bottom-up approach through agent interactions and simulations. Key aspects of ABM theory, definitions, features, and experimentation are outlined. Comparisons are made between ABM and traditional quantitative modeling approaches in economics.
This document discusses improving transport demand modelling to better account for human behavior. It notes that current models assume rational actors that maximize utility, but real people are partly rational and emotional. Two ways people make decisions are outlined: fast intuitive "System 1" thinking and slower logical "System 2" thinking. Models need to incorporate behavioral factors like loss aversion, diminishing sensitivity to changes, and how people remember past experiences. The document also addresses problems with current models like separating payment from use and lags in behavioral responses. Potential solutions proposed include nested choice structures and separating different response timescales. Better interpreting model results and acknowledging uncertainty is important for policy advice, planning and forecasting.
Dokumen tersebut membahas tentang redoks (reduksi-oksidasi) dan sel elektrokimia. Secara singkat, dibahas mengenai pengertian redoks, penyetaraan persamaan reaksi redoks menggunakan metode bilangan oksidasi dan ion-elektron, serta pembahasan mengenai sel volta dan elektrolisis.
The document announces a presentation called "SILK isi" and provides contact information for Mary Ann Staff, the Director of Development, including her name, title, and phone number.
Architecting Solutions That Span Private and Public CloudsMarc Mercuri
Many organizations have scenarios where they would like to take advantage of the public cloud for their business but are unable to do so today. This can range from concerns related to government or industry compliance to legacy systems to data sovereignty concerns.This session reviews how to architect solutions that span private and public clouds, incorporating lessons learned from real world customer engagements.
The XI International Wine Exhibition "Drinks Industry/Russian Wine Fair 2011" was held from November 17-19 in Moscow. Over 250 companies from 17 countries presented over 5,000 wines. This included many of the top Russian producers from Krasnodar and Rostov, alongside leading companies from Italy, France, Spain, Germany, Portugal, and other European countries. Speeches were given by government officials and industry leaders emphasizing the importance of the wine fair and promoting the continued development of the Russian wine industry.
Introduction of Agent Based Modeling (ABM) for Customer Behavior Model yudiyasik
This document introduces agent-based modeling (ABM) for modeling customer behavior. It discusses concepts from economics, marketing, consumer behavior, and modeling. ABM is introduced as a modeling technique that can model complex, non-linear systems like human behavior using a bottom-up approach through agent interactions and simulations. Key aspects of ABM theory, definitions, features, and experimentation are outlined. Comparisons are made between ABM and traditional quantitative modeling approaches in economics.
This document discusses improving transport demand modelling to better account for human behavior. It notes that current models assume rational actors that maximize utility, but real people are partly rational and emotional. Two ways people make decisions are outlined: fast intuitive "System 1" thinking and slower logical "System 2" thinking. Models need to incorporate behavioral factors like loss aversion, diminishing sensitivity to changes, and how people remember past experiences. The document also addresses problems with current models like separating payment from use and lags in behavioral responses. Potential solutions proposed include nested choice structures and separating different response timescales. Better interpreting model results and acknowledging uncertainty is important for policy advice, planning and forecasting.
Dokumen tersebut membahas tentang redoks (reduksi-oksidasi) dan sel elektrokimia. Secara singkat, dibahas mengenai pengertian redoks, penyetaraan persamaan reaksi redoks menggunakan metode bilangan oksidasi dan ion-elektron, serta pembahasan mengenai sel volta dan elektrolisis.
The document announces a presentation called "SILK isi" and provides contact information for Mary Ann Staff, the Director of Development, including her name, title, and phone number.
Architecting Solutions That Span Private and Public CloudsMarc Mercuri
Many organizations have scenarios where they would like to take advantage of the public cloud for their business but are unable to do so today. This can range from concerns related to government or industry compliance to legacy systems to data sovereignty concerns.This session reviews how to architect solutions that span private and public clouds, incorporating lessons learned from real world customer engagements.
The XI International Wine Exhibition "Drinks Industry/Russian Wine Fair 2011" was held from November 17-19 in Moscow. Over 250 companies from 17 countries presented over 5,000 wines. This included many of the top Russian producers from Krasnodar and Rostov, alongside leading companies from Italy, France, Spain, Germany, Portugal, and other European countries. Speeches were given by government officials and industry leaders emphasizing the importance of the wine fair and promoting the continued development of the Russian wine industry.
As data centers are modernized to provide Infrastructure as as Service (IaaS) on premise and leverage IaaS in partner and public hosted clouds, customers will want guidance on how to implement resilient solutions in either environment and hybrid implementations. With PaaS, the focus of FailSafe has largely been on the application developer, but experience during the IaaS preview shows that many of the people we talk to about are IT Pros who are more interested in setting up the infrastructure that applications can be developed on. This session will focus on patterns and implementation guidance for delivering resilient IaaS implementations for that audience.
Architecting with a 'cloud first' mindsetMarc Mercuri
The discussion in the marketplace is largely dominated by people moving from on premise to hosted VMs in an IaaS environment. Whether you call it "Lift and Shift" or "Your Mess for Less", moving software from a physical server to a VM is only part of the story. The reality is that while moving VMs to the cloud can lower costs, it doesn't maximize the potential value for customers. Customers need to re-evaluate how they architect solutions to truly optimize their environment for the cloud. Modern applications should be designed with a 'Cloud First' mentality. Rather than just 'move stuff' to the cloud, architects should be designing software that is autonomous, asynchronous, stateless, and based on standards. Whether public, private or hybrid clouds, taking this approach will pay dividends now and in the future. Not coincidentally, it also optimizes them for Platform as a Service and makes their applications much more Windows Azure friendly. This session discusses the subject in depth and looks at the architectural patterns and approaches using real world solutions.
This document describes the Good Friend app, which provides technology to help leaders and teams. The app offers features like earning potential, activation, recognition, services and solutions to drive engagement. It allows for syncing with teams, huddles, trainings, home visits and advisor engagements. The app's home screen displays key information and it enables team engagement through calling and notifications of birthdays. It also facilitates team meeting musters by allowing leaders to update remarks for viewing. Additional features include performance dialogues, reminders, performance tracking, income planning, and policy information to assist leaders.
This document discusses how insurers can adapt to changes in technology by offering insurance as a service rather than just a product. It introduces Magpie, a company that provides digital services and apps to help insurers personalize the customer experience, increase revenue through upsells and cross-sells, and generate data insights. Magpie's core products include apps, digital services, smart tech, and platforms that can be deployed quickly and configured to work with an insurer's existing app or as a standalone branded solution.
Presentasjon holdt under Geek Girls Dinner Oslo hvor vi presenterer noen eksmpler på hvordan vi har fått brukerens stemme inn som en del av produktutviklingen.
Du kan lese mer om dette på bloggen http://tech.finn.no
Slutte å snakke og begynn å jobbe: Innovasjon i praksis - FINNovasjonsdagen.
Presentasjonen er en oppsummering av FINNovasjonsdagen 2011 og viser hva vi gjorde, hvordan vi organiserte det og ikke minst hvorfor dette er noe FINN.no bruker tid og penger på
The document provides an introduction to a course on consumer behavior. It outlines the main topics to be covered: 1) Management, 2) Marketing, 3) Research, 4) Segmentation, 5) Consumer Behavior, and 6) Creativity. For each topic, it provides definitions and brief descriptions of key concepts that will be discussed in the course. The overall document serves to introduce students to the scope and content of the consumer behavior course.
Huong dan de_tai_tot_nghiep_marketing_managerViệt Long Plaza
The document provides guidance on marketing strategy planning for a new product launch. It outlines a 12-step process for developing a marketing plan, including conducting market, consumer, competitor and situational analyses to inform the objectives, positioning, and integrated marketing mix strategy. A budget for the marketing plan between $400,000-$800,000 USD over 3 years is proposed. Key elements of the process involve understanding customer needs and the business and market environments to develop a focused strategy.
Medi-Pragma is an Italian market research firm established in 1984 that assists clients in business intelligence, commercial operations, and innovation. It conducts over 120 projects annually, 40% of which are international, across 18 countries through its network. Medi-Pragma offers services in areas such as qualitative and quantitative research, consulting, project management, and data collection conducted by trained personnel. The document provides an overview of Medi-Pragma's capabilities, offerings, methodologies, clients, studies conducted and countries involved.
The document discusses pharmaceutical branding strategies. It outlines objectives like improving brand equity and expanding market share through branding plans. It describes branding capabilities like brand strategy, design, and implementation. The document also outlines branding processes, elements, action plans, costs, and contact information for branding services.
Semio is a brand consulting and strategic think tank that uses semiotic research methods to analyze brands, consumer behavior, cultural trends, and communication strategies. It conducts both qualitative and quantitative research through desk research, field studies, social listening, and space analysis to provide tailored insights and strategic recommendations to help brands develop distinctive identities and positions in the market.
Crosscut Advisory Proposal to Global Fragrance BrandChappy_02
Crosscut Advisory Partners proposes conducting exploratory research on the fragrance category for SelectNY. They will leverage their experience in fragrance to discern new consumer insights and cultural contexts shaping fragrance awareness, consideration, purchase and consumption. Crosscut will use qualitative research like focus groups and interviews, as well as quantitative research through an online questionnaire and their proprietary Crosscutting methodology to identify directions for the category. They will deliver a presentation including findings, insights and implications.
This document outlines the key steps and components of strategic planning, including performing an internal analysis to identify core competencies, selecting target countries and markets, analyzing competitors and customers, developing a "big idea" strategic choice, and allocating resources through the budgeting process. It also discusses establishing a strategic platform with the mission and objectives, analyzing the value chain, and controlling implementation through metrics like the balanced scorecard. Common mistakes in strategic planning are also listed such as using low quality data or not connecting analysis to clear conclusions and actions.
Consumer Bahavior-1 a Marketing Plan prerequisite by www.marketingPlanNOW.comwww.marketingPlanMODE.com
This presentation is about consumer research as a preparatory phase to consumer behavior. Besides planning a vision, strategy, tactics and standards, consumer reserch is introduced. Terms such as internal or external research, primary and secondary research are involved in addition to projective techniques, questionnaires, samples, sampeling, etc.
1. The document discusses various aspects of consumer behavior including the buying process, perceived risk, influence of family life cycle, new urban families, industrial consumer behavior, and differences between individual and industrial consumer behavior.
2. Key aspects of marketing research are covered such as the research process, design, analysis methods, and preparing the marketing research report. Different types of marketing research are also discussed including new product launch research, advertising research, customer satisfaction research, and competitor analysis research.
3. Distribution and retail store image research methods are summarized as well as how to understand results, draw conclusions and communicate findings in a marketing research report. The document provides an overview of important consumer behavior and marketing research concepts.
This document provides an overview of key concepts in consumer behaviour. It discusses how studying consumer behaviour helps marketers understand customers' needs and influences on their purchasing decisions. Some of the major topics covered include market segmentation, consumer motivation and perceptions, and techniques for positioning products. The document also examines research methods for studying consumer behaviour and outlines several theories related to personality, motivation, and decision-making processes.
As data centers are modernized to provide Infrastructure as as Service (IaaS) on premise and leverage IaaS in partner and public hosted clouds, customers will want guidance on how to implement resilient solutions in either environment and hybrid implementations. With PaaS, the focus of FailSafe has largely been on the application developer, but experience during the IaaS preview shows that many of the people we talk to about are IT Pros who are more interested in setting up the infrastructure that applications can be developed on. This session will focus on patterns and implementation guidance for delivering resilient IaaS implementations for that audience.
Architecting with a 'cloud first' mindsetMarc Mercuri
The discussion in the marketplace is largely dominated by people moving from on premise to hosted VMs in an IaaS environment. Whether you call it "Lift and Shift" or "Your Mess for Less", moving software from a physical server to a VM is only part of the story. The reality is that while moving VMs to the cloud can lower costs, it doesn't maximize the potential value for customers. Customers need to re-evaluate how they architect solutions to truly optimize their environment for the cloud. Modern applications should be designed with a 'Cloud First' mentality. Rather than just 'move stuff' to the cloud, architects should be designing software that is autonomous, asynchronous, stateless, and based on standards. Whether public, private or hybrid clouds, taking this approach will pay dividends now and in the future. Not coincidentally, it also optimizes them for Platform as a Service and makes their applications much more Windows Azure friendly. This session discusses the subject in depth and looks at the architectural patterns and approaches using real world solutions.
This document describes the Good Friend app, which provides technology to help leaders and teams. The app offers features like earning potential, activation, recognition, services and solutions to drive engagement. It allows for syncing with teams, huddles, trainings, home visits and advisor engagements. The app's home screen displays key information and it enables team engagement through calling and notifications of birthdays. It also facilitates team meeting musters by allowing leaders to update remarks for viewing. Additional features include performance dialogues, reminders, performance tracking, income planning, and policy information to assist leaders.
This document discusses how insurers can adapt to changes in technology by offering insurance as a service rather than just a product. It introduces Magpie, a company that provides digital services and apps to help insurers personalize the customer experience, increase revenue through upsells and cross-sells, and generate data insights. Magpie's core products include apps, digital services, smart tech, and platforms that can be deployed quickly and configured to work with an insurer's existing app or as a standalone branded solution.
Presentasjon holdt under Geek Girls Dinner Oslo hvor vi presenterer noen eksmpler på hvordan vi har fått brukerens stemme inn som en del av produktutviklingen.
Du kan lese mer om dette på bloggen http://tech.finn.no
Slutte å snakke og begynn å jobbe: Innovasjon i praksis - FINNovasjonsdagen.
Presentasjonen er en oppsummering av FINNovasjonsdagen 2011 og viser hva vi gjorde, hvordan vi organiserte det og ikke minst hvorfor dette er noe FINN.no bruker tid og penger på
The document provides an introduction to a course on consumer behavior. It outlines the main topics to be covered: 1) Management, 2) Marketing, 3) Research, 4) Segmentation, 5) Consumer Behavior, and 6) Creativity. For each topic, it provides definitions and brief descriptions of key concepts that will be discussed in the course. The overall document serves to introduce students to the scope and content of the consumer behavior course.
Huong dan de_tai_tot_nghiep_marketing_managerViệt Long Plaza
The document provides guidance on marketing strategy planning for a new product launch. It outlines a 12-step process for developing a marketing plan, including conducting market, consumer, competitor and situational analyses to inform the objectives, positioning, and integrated marketing mix strategy. A budget for the marketing plan between $400,000-$800,000 USD over 3 years is proposed. Key elements of the process involve understanding customer needs and the business and market environments to develop a focused strategy.
Medi-Pragma is an Italian market research firm established in 1984 that assists clients in business intelligence, commercial operations, and innovation. It conducts over 120 projects annually, 40% of which are international, across 18 countries through its network. Medi-Pragma offers services in areas such as qualitative and quantitative research, consulting, project management, and data collection conducted by trained personnel. The document provides an overview of Medi-Pragma's capabilities, offerings, methodologies, clients, studies conducted and countries involved.
The document discusses pharmaceutical branding strategies. It outlines objectives like improving brand equity and expanding market share through branding plans. It describes branding capabilities like brand strategy, design, and implementation. The document also outlines branding processes, elements, action plans, costs, and contact information for branding services.
Semio is a brand consulting and strategic think tank that uses semiotic research methods to analyze brands, consumer behavior, cultural trends, and communication strategies. It conducts both qualitative and quantitative research through desk research, field studies, social listening, and space analysis to provide tailored insights and strategic recommendations to help brands develop distinctive identities and positions in the market.
Crosscut Advisory Proposal to Global Fragrance BrandChappy_02
Crosscut Advisory Partners proposes conducting exploratory research on the fragrance category for SelectNY. They will leverage their experience in fragrance to discern new consumer insights and cultural contexts shaping fragrance awareness, consideration, purchase and consumption. Crosscut will use qualitative research like focus groups and interviews, as well as quantitative research through an online questionnaire and their proprietary Crosscutting methodology to identify directions for the category. They will deliver a presentation including findings, insights and implications.
This document outlines the key steps and components of strategic planning, including performing an internal analysis to identify core competencies, selecting target countries and markets, analyzing competitors and customers, developing a "big idea" strategic choice, and allocating resources through the budgeting process. It also discusses establishing a strategic platform with the mission and objectives, analyzing the value chain, and controlling implementation through metrics like the balanced scorecard. Common mistakes in strategic planning are also listed such as using low quality data or not connecting analysis to clear conclusions and actions.
Consumer Bahavior-1 a Marketing Plan prerequisite by www.marketingPlanNOW.comwww.marketingPlanMODE.com
This presentation is about consumer research as a preparatory phase to consumer behavior. Besides planning a vision, strategy, tactics and standards, consumer reserch is introduced. Terms such as internal or external research, primary and secondary research are involved in addition to projective techniques, questionnaires, samples, sampeling, etc.
1. The document discusses various aspects of consumer behavior including the buying process, perceived risk, influence of family life cycle, new urban families, industrial consumer behavior, and differences between individual and industrial consumer behavior.
2. Key aspects of marketing research are covered such as the research process, design, analysis methods, and preparing the marketing research report. Different types of marketing research are also discussed including new product launch research, advertising research, customer satisfaction research, and competitor analysis research.
3. Distribution and retail store image research methods are summarized as well as how to understand results, draw conclusions and communicate findings in a marketing research report. The document provides an overview of important consumer behavior and marketing research concepts.
This document provides an overview of key concepts in consumer behaviour. It discusses how studying consumer behaviour helps marketers understand customers' needs and influences on their purchasing decisions. Some of the major topics covered include market segmentation, consumer motivation and perceptions, and techniques for positioning products. The document also examines research methods for studying consumer behaviour and outlines several theories related to personality, motivation, and decision-making processes.
This document discusses proper planning to prevent poor performance. It notes that in 2007, 19,000 new brands were launched globally, including 350 new toothpaste brands. Consumers are now bombarded with 2,500-4,500 advertisements daily, far more than the average of 560 advertisements 30 years ago. The document then outlines steps for analyzing a customer's experiential world, including examining their lifecycle through qualitative and quantitative research, using methods like customer shadowing and journals. It also recommends benchmarking other companies' best practices. The following sections discuss building an experiential platform, designing the brand experience, aligning internal experiences, and 4 ways to apply the strategies, such as through sensory marketing.
Innovation product design planning process 1 powerpoint presentation templatesSlideTeam.net
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1) Defining market needs and selecting topic criteria.
2) Generating and selecting optimal ideas/solutions.
3) Selecting the best ideas for innovation.
4) Shaping the concept according to possible directions.
5) Estimating risks of the concept.
6) Implementing concepts into realizations projects.
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This document discusses market research conducted on Dettol, a brand of hygiene products owned by Reckitt Benckiser. It provides the following key points:
1. Dettol has been a trusted brand in India since 1933 and is consistently rated as one of India's most trusted brands. It offers multiple hygiene products including soaps, hand wash, and hand sanitizer.
2. The document outlines various chapters covering topics such as the Indian personal hygiene market, Reckitt Benckiser as a company, the history and statistics of the Dettol brand, and analyses of Dettol soap.
3. Market research methods discussed include surveys, focus groups, and analyzing secondary data to understand customers
This document provides an introduction to agent-based modeling (ABM) for modeling customer behavior. It defines key concepts related to economics, marketing, consumer behavior, and modeling. It explains ABM as a bottom-up approach that models the behaviors and interactions of individual agents to understand how they can influence system-level behavior through computer simulation. The document also outlines some strengths and weaknesses of the ABM approach compared to traditional quantitative modeling.
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Innovation decision making new product development process 1 powerpoint prese...SlideTeam.net
This document outlines an innovation process with 7 stages: 1) defining market needs and topics for innovation, 2) searching for optimal ideas and solutions, 3) selecting the best ideas, 4) shaping the selected concepts, 5) estimating risks of the concepts, 6) implementing the concepts into real projects, 7) encouraging creativity in companies. The process involves activities like market research, stakeholder analysis, brainstorming, screening ideas, workshops to develop concepts, and risk analysis.
Innovation decision making new product development process 1 powerpoint prese...SlideTeam.net
The document describes an innovation process with 7 stages: 1) identifying market needs, 2) defining topics and selection criteria, 3) searching for and generating ideas/solutions, 4) selecting the best ideas, 5) shaping concepts according to possible directions, 6) estimating risks of concepts, and 7) implementing concepts into projects. It emphasizes reaching a healthy innovation culture through training creative thinking and applying creativity with structure for success.
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Energy Efficient Video Encoding for Cloud and Edge Computing Instances
Introduction of Agent Based Modeling (ABM) for Customer Behavior Model
1. Introduction of
Agent Based Modeling (ABM)
for Customer Behavior Model
Dr. Ir. Yudi Limbar Yasik., MSc
mail : yudiyasik@yahoo.com
hp : 0816- 420-8382
0818- 221-699
0812-218-20090
1
3. Ilmu Ekonomi?
oIlmu yang mempelajari tentang
kebutuhan manusia
oBarter
oKonsep uang
oKonsep Supply : Demand
3
4. Marketing Concept?
o Kapan dibutuhkan
o Supply < Demand
o Supply = Demand
o Supply > Demand
o Ilmu yang pempelajari tentang perilaku
manusia dalam memenuhi kebutuhannya
o Dasar ilmu marketing adalah ilmu tentang
perilaku manusia (Consumer Behaviour)
4
5. ON T
ITI EC
C O H AV
GN FF
Marketing Strategy
BE
C O ER A
NS IO
UM R
AN SU M
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STRATEGY
CONSUMER
Consumer Research ENVIRONMENT
And Analysis
Consumers:
Affect and Cognition Marketing Strategy
Behaviour Development
Envoironment
Marketing Strategy
Implementation
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6. Consumer Behaviour
MASUKAN / PENGARUH EXTERNAL
Lingkungan Sosio-Budaya
Usaha Pemasaran
- Keluarga
- Produk
- Sumber informasi
- Promosi
- Reff Group
- Harga
- kelas sosial
- Saluran distribusi
- sub budaya & budaya
PROSES PENGAMBILAN KEPUTUSAN (INTERNAL)
Pengenalan kebutuhan Psikology
- Motivasi
Penyelidikan sebelum - persepsi
pembelian - Pengetahuan
- Kepribadian
Evaluasi Alternatif - Sikap
Pengalaman/
Pembelajaran
ACTION
Pembelian
- Percobaan Pembelian
- Pembelian ulang
Evaluasi Setelah 6
Pembelian
Sumber: Schiffman & Kanuk. 2000: 8
7. Modeling
o Model Matematis
o Misal :
oS=Vxt
A model
o V= S / t
• (from V.L. *modellus, dim. of L.
ot=S/V modulus "measure, standard," dim.
o Model Statistik of modus "manner, measure" -
Online Etymology Dic.)
o Misal : • is a pattern, plan, representation
o Linear regression (especially in miniature), or
o y = α + βx + ε description designed to show the
main object or workings of an
object, system, or concept.
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8. Why Agent Based Modeling??
o Model yang tidak bisa di dekati dengan
persamaan matematis atau statistik
o Sistem yang kompleks tidak linear seperti
perilaku manusia
o Ethical problem, Non Parametrik
o Bottom up aproach
o Simulasi sistem
o Skenario, prediksi
o Kemajuan di bidang ilmu simulasi dan komputer,
o artificial Intelegent 8
9. ABM Teory
o Secara konsep ABM diturunkan dari gabungan antar
disiplin ilmu yang dikenal dengan konsep “Science
complexity” istilah yang diangkap oleh Levin 1999[i].
o Secara alamiah konsep biologi dan ilmu sosial
digabungkan sehingga menghasilkan gabungan yang
kompleks yang dapat mengantisipasi sistem yang tidak
linear, bisa mengatur diri sendiri, heterogen, bisa
beradaptasi, ada feedback, dan dapat memunculkan
perilaku.
o Ke semua gabungan ilmu tadi di implementasikan ke
dalam suatu teknik computer dan software yang
membuat kerangka kerja permodelan berbasis agen,
yang merupakan hasil perkembangan teori komputer
mulai dari artificial intelegent, neural network, dan
pemrograman computer yang dapat berevolusi.
o [i] Lewin, R. (1999), Complexity: Life at the Edge of Chaos, University of Chicago Press, Chicago, IL . 9
10. DEFINISI
o ABM adalah :
o suatu metode yang digunakan untuk penelitian / eksperimen
o dengan melihat pendekatan dari bawah ke atas (bottom-up)
o bagaimana interaksi perilaku-perilaku individu dapat
mempengaruhi perilaku sistem,
o dengan simulasi berbasis komputer
o untuk memodelkan semua perilaku entitas (agen) yang terlibat
dalam dunia nyata
o dengan harapan interaksi antar entitas dapat menghasilkan atau
menggambarkan sifat utama
o yang dapat digunakan lagi sebagai alat bantu untuk
eksplanatori, eksploratori atau prediksi dalam mengambil
keputusan di dunia nyata.
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11. The key feature of agent-based modeling
Twomey & Cadman, 2002, Agent-based modelling of customer behaviour in the telecoms and media markets
o The term ``agent’’ in the context of business or economic modeling
refers to real world objects such as people or firms.
o In the agent-based approach the focus turns to the properties of
the individual agents.
o These agents are capable of displaying autonomous behavior
such as reacting to external events as well as initiating activities. Of
equal importance is the interaction of these agents with other
agents.
o Involves a bottom-up approach to understanding a system’s
behavior (e.g fish or bird group).
o Traditional modeling usually takes a top-down approach in which certain
key aggregated variables are observed in the real world and then
reconstructed in a model.
o Under this approach a modeler would observe the effects of say a price
change on the number of consumers who purchased a product at an
aggregated level. This would provide the basis for quantifying the
strength of interaction in the model.
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12. Agent Based Modeling Experiment
Testfatsion, 2005, ACE Modeling Economies as Complex Adaptive Systems
o Modeler constructs a
virtual world populated
constructs a virtual world by various agent types
sets initial world conditions (company, consumer,
market, supplier,
regulator)
o Modeler sets initial
world conditions
(consumer, market
The world develops over time place)
Culture Disk o Modeler then steps back
(agent interaction) to observe how the
world develops over
time (no further
intervention by the
modeler is permitted)
o World events are driven
Emergent Behavior by agent interactions
(macro behavior)
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13. Perbandingan ABM dengan Model Kuantitatif
Pemodelan Ekonomi
Pemodelan dengan Agent Based (ABM)
Secara Kuantitatif
Model dibangun untuk mengungkapkan
Model dibangun untuk
permasalahan dengan pendekatan dari bawah ke
menyederhanakan
atas (bottom up approach), Twomey dan Cadman
permasalahan
(2002:56)
Model adalah langkah awal untuk menghasilkan
Model dihasilkan dari
data empirik, simulasi yang dijalankan dengan
pengolahan data empirik
model akan menghasilkan data empirik ,
(seperti data hasil survey)
Axelroad dan Tesfatsion (2005:4)
Model yang dibuat untuk Bukan model yang menyelesaikan masalah tetapi
memecahkan masalah agen-agen dalam model yang akan memecahkan
yang dihadapi masalah yang dihadapi, Bonabeau (2002:7280)
Model yang dibuat adalah Model yang dibuat adalah langkah awal dari
hasil akhir dari penelitian penelitian, Bryson ett. all (2005:1) 13
14. Strengths of agent-based modeling
o System assumptions, The emergent non-equilibrium, dynamical behaviour of a
system is usually one of the most interesting outputs of agentbased models.
o Realism. This allows us to undertake qualitative scenario exploration to investigate
the structure or morphology of the system independently of the details.
o Natural representations. relatively easy to understand as they have a simple,
structural correspondence between the ``target system’’ and the model
representation. They are more intuitive and easier to understand than, say, a system
of differential equations.
o Heterogeneity. ABMs also allow us to introduce a very high degree of heterogeneity
(diversity) into our populations of agents. Traditional models ± to permit mathematical
solutions
o Bounded rationality . Both limited information and limited abilities to process
information may be explicitly incorporated into the model. Habit and social imitation
may also be included.
o Communication and social networking. ability explicitly to incorporate
communication among agents. Agents can, for example, ``talk’’, share information or
imitate other agents in the population. This level of subtlety is usually outside the
reach of traditional mathematical models, since social networks quickly make
equation-based models so complex as to be insoluble.
o Object-orientated analysis, design and programming.
o Maintenance and refinement. It is reasonably easy to add new types of agents or
new attributes or behaviours of agents without destroying earlier knowledge
incorporated into the model
o + Ethical, parametric design. 14
15. Weaknesses of agent-based modelling
o Data problems. the potential lack of adequate data. This is not surprising
since, as mentioned in the introduction, most quantitative research until now
has concentrated on ``variable and correlation’’ models that do not cohere
well with process-based simulation that is inherent in ABMs. This means
that not only is it likely that new types of data are needed to be collected but
even theories may need to be recast effectively to take account of the
potentialities of agent-based simulation.
o Identifying rules of behaviors. Trying to capture the appropriate
processes or mechanisms underlying the agents’ behavior may not be an
easy task. However, as Hood (1998) points out, the flip side of this is that it
forces us to be explicit about our assumptions and forces us to think about
extracting the ``essence’’ of the problem.
o Programming skills. Any sophisticated, agent-based model requires
programming in an object-orientated language such as Java. That is, it
requires a level of computing skill beyond simple spreadsheet programming.
o Computational time. ABMs are computationally intensive, and although it
is precisely because of the advances in computing power that we now have
the possibility of desk-top agent-based modelling, there are still limits to the
level of detail and number of agents that can be run in a simulation in a
reasonable amount of time.
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16. Designing an agent
Hood, L. (1998), ``Agent based modelling’’, available at www.brs.gov.au/social_sciences/kyoto/hood2.html
o Low fidelity.
o all the agents in the model have the same behaviour and intrinsic attributes.
o This situation would not even be categorised as an ABM by many practitioners.
o It is of interest for problems where the statistics of the collection of entities are of interest.
o This situation occurs in many physics and chemistry simulations (e.g. the molecular level
simulation ofmaterial properties or drug design).
o because of their simpler agent details, usually much larger numbers of agents are employed
in the simulations than in a typical ABM. For example, one of the largest astrophysics
simulations ever performedconsisted of 150 million agents (stellar entities).
o Medium fidelity.
o Here an observed distribution of the agents’ behaviour is used to ``calibrate’’ the model.
o This is a very useful middle ground to target for many applications where the tails of a
distribution are of interest (e.g. the poorest 10 per cent, the richest 10 percent).
o An advantage of working at this level of detail is that it allows ups to capture some of the
observed properties of the individual agents without having to resolve the internal workings of
the agents (i.e. ``what makes them tick’’).
o High fidelity.
o a proper attempt is made to capture the internal workings of the agents. This may include
trying to model, among other things, the beliefs, desires and intentions of the agent.
o At this level of fidelity we may also include an ability of the agent to adapt and learn, such
that the agent’s behaviours and properties evolve over time as they learn about their
environment and what actions lead to success or failure.
o At this level of fidelity we are thus capturing some notion of a mentalistic or cognitive agent.
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17. Platform ABM
o Swarn (berbasis bahasa C)
o Bahan tentang Repast dapat didapat secara on line dari
http://www.swarm.org/wiki/Main_Page
o Repast (Recursive Porus Agent Simulation Toolkit:
berbasis Java)
o Bahan tentang Repast dapat didapat secara on line dari
http://repast.sourceforge.net/repast_3/index.html
o Mason (Multi-Agent Simulator of Neighborhoods: untuk
kecepatan)
o Bahan tentang Repast dapat didapat secara on line dari
http://cs.gmu.edu/~eclab/projects/mason/
o Netlogo (paling lengkap dokumentasi dan lebih praktis
digunakan)
o Bahan tentang Repast dapat didapat secara on line dari
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http://ccl.northwestern.edu/netlogo/
18. Proses Pembuatan ABM
(1)
Studi Pustaka
Observasi
wawancara
Spesifikasi:
(2)
Virtual World
Desain
Agents
Model
Properti
Berbasis
Method
ABM
Dokumen (3)
Desain Pembuatan
sistem ABM Model
Berbasis ABM
Model (4)
Berbasis Uji Validitas &
ABM Reliabilitas
Model
(5)
Valid ABM Eksperiment
Model dengan
ABM
(6)
Data Hasil Uji Statistik
Eksperiment & Observasi
Keterangan :
Mdoel
Output Proses Emergent
Behavior
Model
Kuantitatif
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19. ABM Area of implementation (in Management)
Learning and the There exists a broad range of algorithms which represent the learning process of
embodied mind computational agents, e.g. genetic algorithms.
Evolution of Norms are generated by interaction and in social settings. AXELROD (1997, 47) uses the
behavioural norms following definition “A norm exists in a given social setting to the extend that individuals
usually act in a certain way and are often punished when seen not to be acting in this way”.
Bottom-up modeling The major point in markets is the ability to perform self organisation. Some markets follow a
of market processes path dependency while others behave differently. Nearly every market can be investigated by
using agent-based simulations.
Formation of Economic networks play a crucial role in social and economic science. The formation of
economic networks transaction networks by strategically interacting agents takes the centre stage.
Modeling of An organisation consists of a number of people which have an objective or performance
organisations criterion that transcends the objectives of the individuals within the group (V. ZANDT, 1998).
In this sense organisations can be modelled by implementing agent-based models.
Automated markets This area is related to the Internet and to virtual markets. There is a number of profit oriented
research on the way with continuously growing implementations in products.
Parallel experiments There are two main differences regarding experiments with real and computational agents:
with real and The behaviour of computational agents is determined and known in advance while it is not
computational possible to know explicitly why real agents respectively human beings make a particular
agents choice. Performing both experiments in parallel could support the finding of insights.
Building ACE Work with agent-based models needs computer and programming skills. There are
computational environments developed and still under construction which support application for non-skilled
laboratories researchers. These computational laboratories permit the study of systems of multiple 19
interacting agents by means of controlled and replicable experiments, e.g. Swarm or RePast.
20. CONTOH ABM
CONSUMER BEHAVIOUR MODEL
For VOICE MUSIC SMS (VMS)
VALUE ADDED SERVICE
AT GSM OPERATOR IN INDONESIA
http://abm.cantiknatural.com
http://ccl.northwestern.edu/netlogo/models/community/customerBehavior
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21. Model Perilaku Konsumen VMS
yudi limbar yasik, 2008
Komunikasi Pemasaran ACCEPTANCE
Advertising RATE OF
Sales Promotion
Publicity
VMS SERVICES
Personal Selling
Direct Marketing
Pelanggan Telepon Selular GSM
Opinion Decision
Informasi Cara Penggunaan
Informasi Lagu
Informasi Harga
+
-
Informasi Cakupan
Rumor Cara Menggunakan Behavioral Attitude Need
Rumor Lagu
Rekomendasi Cara
Rekomendasi Lagu Imitation
Diskualifikasi Cara
Diskualifikasi Lagu
Conditioning
Inactive Consumer Profile
- Kemampuan menggunakan
Opportunity - Kesesuaian Lagu
Kelompok Rujukan - Sensitifitas Harga
Keluarga Distrust - Daftar Phonebook
Teman
Pemimpin Pendapat
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23. Agents
o Konsumen VMS
o Pelanggan Telkomsel
o Pelanggan Indosat
o Pelanggan Excelcom
o Operator Telekomunikasi Selular GSM
o Kinerja Komunikasi Pemasaran
o Group Reference Influence
o Rumor
o Rekomendasi
o Diskualifikasi 23
24. Agent’s Attribute
o Pelanggan
o Tingkat kemampuan menggunakan
o Tingkat kesesuaian lagu
o Tingkat Kesesuaian Harga
o Behaviour Attitude
o Operator yang digunakan
o Kinerja Komunikasi Pemasaran
o Info cara menggunakan, info lagu, info harga,
info cakupan pelayanan
o Kelompok Rujukan
o Rumor, diskualifikasi dan rekomendasi 24
25. Agent’s Methods Active BA
(imitating)
menerima pengaruh
positif
State=2
o Behaviour AttitudePositif Stimulus > Positif Threshold
Negatif_Threshold < Negatif Stimulus
Active BA
o Komunikasi Antar (conditioning)
Siap menerima
pengaruh positif
pelanggan Positif Stimulus > Positif Threshold
State=1
Negatif_Threshold < Negatif Stimulus
o Keputusan pelanggan Inactive BA
(Min_threshold,
Maks_threshold,
state=0)
Positif Stimulus > Positif Threshold
Negatif_Threshold < Negatif Stimulus
Active BA
(opportunis)
Siap menerima
pengaruh negatif
State=-1
Positif Stimulus > Positif Threshold Negatif_Threshold < Negatif Stimulus
Active BA
(distrust)
menerima pengaruh
negatif
State=-2
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