1. In Awe of China
China is the second largest economy in the world with an awe inspiring growth rate of above 10% per
annum for the last 30 years. Its annual GDP at current prices grew from nearly $400 billion in 1990 to
$11,780 billion in 2015, almost 30 times! Today China is the largest manufacturing economy in the world
and the largest exporter in the world. It is also the world's second largest importer. As the largest
trading nation in the world China's money power and financial clout is second only to the USA. In line
with its economic might the importance of China in world affairs has also risen exponentially. It is one of
five permanent members of the Security Council, the permannent council of the UN responsible for
preserving world peace and member of the Nuclear Suppliers Group, the multinational body concerned
with preventing nuclear proliferation and export of material that can be used for nuclear weapon
development. Recently it has been instrumental in setting up financial institutions like the Asian
Infrastructure Investment Bank with the potential to rival even the world bank. Without doubt China is
going to be the leading voice in deciding the future of the planet and its way of life. The disquieting fact
is that China's recent actions and the results of its past policies are not befitting of a responsible world
leader.
The testing of a nuclear device by North Korea is a recent event that has shaken the non proliferation
regime. The test has implications for countries in the region including Japan, Taiwan and south Korea.
The complicity of Pakistan's AQ Khan network is well documented. In turn the hand of China in
Pakistan's nuclear development is murky yet significant. Both North Korea and Pakistan are die hard
allies of China.
Hong Kong under the one country two system principle is supposed to have a high degree of autonomy
in its affairs. However the unauthorised arrest by China of 5 Hong Kong publishers, who were about to
publish a book on the private life of the Chinese president, shocked the world and showed a disregard
for international law.
The south China sea is a vital trade route. Large chunks of that sea is now controlled by China. It is
building airports and bases in strategically pivotal islets and claiming the entire sea in spite of protests
by almost every other country in the region and outside.
China's economic might allows it to implement its policy without regard to the objection of other
countries. Money is power but times are changing. The high growth that China enjoyed is a dream of the
past. The latest data shows annual growth at a 25 year low. It is depreciating its currency to maintain
growth and exports .The bourses of Shanghai and Shenzhen are in turmoil. The steps that china takes to
stabilise its economy will have grave repercussions around the world. Fears of a financial war abound.
The Communist Party of China will take any step necessary to stay in power. The aspiration of its people
is high. The recent riots in Ughar killed hundreds but was quietly underplayed by the media as was the
umbrella movement in Hong Kong. Let us hope that China's economy has a soft landing that won't shake
the benign world structure in these transformative times.