This document discusses using system dynamics and agent-based modeling approaches to address human resource constraints. It presents an "Evolution of Employees" model that simulates employee aging and career progression within an organization. The model is adapted to demonstrate workforce declines without hiring, and the benefits of regular hiring to maintain appropriate staffing levels. The modeling approach is also applied to a case study of delays in treating heart attack patients and a customer monitoring marketing model. The models help managers evaluate policies and make planning decisions when facing constraints on hiring or other resources.

1. Guttenberg Ferreira Passos
(UnB, Universidade de Brasilia)
Ilan Chamovitz
(University of Manchester, Manchester Business School)
Babis Theodoulidis
(University of Manchester, Manchester Business School)
System Dynamics & Agent-Based
approaches to face HR constrains
August, 2014

2. Evolution of Employees
Human Resource Management (HRM) has emerged as a
fundamental and critical capital in organizations. After all, human
resources plan, design policies, handle machinery and innovate.
Human Resources also hire human resources! In this context,
Information Systems can facilitate the understanding of problems,
especially when there is a complex scenario involving decision
making.
Thus, investment in HR Information Systems becomes
increasingly valued by managers.

3. Evolution of Employees
The process begins with a survey in order to find out the need for
staff. Upon completion of the survey that generates data to the
Capacity Plan, the process of hiring employees starts in
accordance to the suggested number.
Employee’s life cycle in the company comprises a chain based in
aging. The Aging Chains Model proposed by John Sterman in the
book "Business Dynamics: Systems Thinking and Modeling for a
Complex World" can be used to represent this cycle, and show
employees evolution.
In the Evolution of Employees Model can map people
development in their careers, taking into account their promotions
and departures from hiring to retirement.

4. Aging Chain Model
During this cycle there is a delay that results in some more time
spent to employee be promoted from beginner employee to more
experienced employee.
There is also another delay for the employee to change from the
phase of being a master to finish his career at that company. The
closure can also appear prematurely in the intermediate stages.
The model was adapted from the original to allow temporary
getaway of professionals. The main consequence is a greater delay
in their promotions, causing them to remain longer at each stage.

5. Evolution of Employees - Aging Chain Model
Trainee
Employee
Employee
Master
Employee
hires promotion 1 promotion 2 retirement
promotion delay 1
promotion delay 2
retirement delay
total
employees
trainee firing
rate
employee firing
rate
promotion rate 1 promotion rate 2
fraction 1
fraction 2
<Trainee
Employee>
<Employee>
<Master
Employee>
Licenses
Trainee
Licenses
Employee
Licenses
Master
removes trainee
return
trainee
removes
employee
return
employee
removes
master
return
master
fraction T
delay T fraction C
delay C fraction M delay M
<Licenses
Trainee>
<Licenses
Employee>
<Licenses
Master>
total
licenses

6. Evolution of Employees without hiring
The importance of the model for management in organizations is
the possibility of planning the replacement of staff, because over
time people leave the company.
The graph with the result illustrates a situation where, in the event
there is no new hiring process, the amount of people tend to drop
sharply over time. This situation results in a lack of quality or in
overstress work.

7. Evolution of Employees without hiring

8. Employees Evolution without hiring
In the first model we have used Dynamic Systems Modeling, that
means starting the approach from the macro to the micro, aiming
to study the structure and the behavior of the system.
The second model depicts the same situation, however, using
Agent Based Modeling, that means, coming from the micro to the
macro, studying possible emergence in the system caused by the
interaction of an agent with the others and with the environment.
It can observed that the behavior is the same in both models.

9. Evolution of Employees without hiring
Employees decreasing along the time

10. Evolution of Employees with
Hiring employees per year
These models allow the managers to perform a sequence of
simulations until they achieve an adequate number of hires.
Through the replacement of staff, the company can keep a suitable
number of employees to perform their services.

11. Evolution of Employees with hiring employees per year
After a quick drop, the workforce gradual readjustment

12. Evolution of Employees with hiring
rate of 30 employees per year

13. Evaluation of delays of care in ST-segment elevation
myocardial infarction patients within a tiered health
system
The ST Segment Elevation Myocardial Infarction (STEMI) was
adapted from the Evolution of Employees Model.
Mortality rates amongst STEMI patients remain high, especially in
developing countries, due to a lack of infrastructure and gaps in
healthcare professionals training.
The aim of this study was to evaluate the factors related with
delays in the treatment of STEMI patients to support a
strategic plan toward structural and personnel modifications in a
primary care hospital, aligning its process with international
guidelines.

14. Dashboard to calibrate the model:
X axis represents time patients retained in each process and
Y axis represents the percentage of patients retained.
The right box presents the proposed improvement for each variable.

15. Sensitivity analysis for 20,000 simulations
Total retained means the percentage of patients (0 to 100%)
retained on all processes

16. Customer Monitoring Marketing Model
The model was adapted from the Evolution of
Employees Model, one of the System Dynamics &
Agent-Based approaches to face HR constrains.
Customer Monitoring Marketing Model was
presented in Netlogo at University of Central
Lancashire, Preston, UK, to show how simulation
can be used to support Authentic Learning.

17. Customer Monitoring Marketing Model

18. Customer Monitoring

19. System Dynamics & Agent-Based with HR constrains
Conclusions
There are some situations where the adoption of some type of policies results in
constrains, such as impossibility of hiring of people.
The proposed model has been applied for a public service ICT software
development company, in Brazil. At that time, hiring staff or services met strict
criteria established by law and policies.
In this case, based on outputs from System Dynamics (SD) followed by Agent
Based Modelling (ABM), managers could decide about relocation of people,
following defined policies, without hiring staff.
The model, which was generated from the Responsibility Organizational Model,
was extended to the ST segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) and
the Customer Monitoring Marketing Model.

20. System Dynamics & Agent-Based with HR constrains
References
ANDRADE LD, LYNCH C, CARVALHO E, RODRIGUES CG, VISSOCI JRN, et al. (2014).
System Dynamics Modeling in the Evaluation of Delays of Care in ST-Segment Elevation
Myocardial Infarction Patients within a Tiered Health System. PLoS ONE 9(7): e103577.
doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0103577. <
http://www.plosone.org/article/info%3Adoi%2F10.1371%2Fjournal.pone.0103577 >
PASSOS, G.F. CHAMOVITZ, I., THEODOULIDIS, B. Organizational Responsibility Model:
Dealing with demand for services higher than installed capacity. Article accepted for presentation at
the IEEE SMC 2013 Conference (SMC: Systems Science), October, 2013. Access
http://ieeexplore.ieee.org/xpl/articleDetails.jsp?arnumber=6722506 .
STERMAN JD. Business Dynamics: Systems Thinking and Modeling for a Complex World.
Boston, MA: Irwin/ McGraw-Hill; 2000.
Netlogo Models. < http://modelingcommons.org/account/login> . Access in August 2014.
Aging Chain used within Human Resources < http://api.adm.br/netlogo/HR/>. Access in August
2014.
Consumer Profile Monitor http://api.adm.br/netlogo/Marketing/ Access in August 2014.