How can a teacher be encouraging and motivating to students during challenging times ie. (COVID)? The problem is not being able to keep children motivated long enough to complete and submit assignments
· Do not simply put summaries together one by one or put all of your Annotated Bibliographies together
· Include an introduction section
· Include a conclusion section
· Consider creating themes
· You will need subheadings
· You must use APA format
· You must have a reference page (use hanging indents...See APA format)
· Use the correct in-paper citations
· Include different types of literature/resources
· Try to avoid using first person "I" (use scholarly, unbiased writing
Sterman
I 1
ISBN : 007238915X
TITLE: BUSINESS DYNAMICS : SYSTEMS THINKING I 1
t
RIAL : 291000
CLASS: BUSINESS
EXHIB :
Business Dynamics
Systems Thinking and
Modeling for a Complex World
John D. Sterman
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Sloan School of Management
Boston Burr Ridge, IL Dubuque, IA Madison, WI New York San Francisco St. Louis
Bangkok Bogota Caracas Lisbon London Madrid
Mexico City Milan New Delhi Seoul Singapore Sydney Taipei Toronto
McGraw-Hill Higher Education
A Division of f i e McGraw-Hill Companies
BUSINESS DYNAMICS
SYSTEMS THINKING AND MOOELING FOR A COMPLEX WORLD
Copyright 0 2000 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. AU rights reserved. Printcd in the United '
States of America. Except as permitted under the United States Copyright Act of 1976, no part of
this publication may be reproduced or dismbuted in any form or by m y means, or stored in a
database or retrieval system, without the prior written permission of the publisher.
This book is printed on acid-free paper. .h
4 5 6 7 8 9 0 KGPiKGP 0 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2
ISBN 0-07-231135-5
Publisher: Jeffrey J. Shelsfud
Senior sponsoring editor: Scott Isenberg
Marketing manager: Zina Cra3
Senior project manager: Gladys True
Senior production supervisor: Lori Koetters
Freelance design coordinator: A4av L. Christianson
Freelance cover designer: The Wsrrul
Cover image: 0 Sonia Delaumy/L & M Services, Amsterdaflute Gulleo, LondodArt Resource, NY
Compositor: GAChdianapolis
Typeface: 11/13 Ernes Roman
Printer: Quebecor Printing Book Group/Kingsport
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Sterman, John.
Business dynamics : systems thinking and modeling for a complex world I John D. Sterman.
Includes hibliographical references and index.
ISBN 0-07-231135-5 (alk. paper)
1. Indusmal management. 2. System theory. 3. Management information systems. I.
p. cm.
Title.
HD30.2.S7835 2000
658.4'038'011Ldc21
99-056030
http://www.mhhe.com
For Cindy
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
John D. Sterman is J. Spencer Standish Professor of Management at the Sloan
School of Management of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and Director
of MIT’s System Dynamics Group. His research centers on the development of
practical methods for systems t ...
Creating a Use Case
Jennifer LeClair
CIS 510
Instructor Name: Dr. Austin Umezurike
10/27/2016
Assignment 2:
Creating a Use Case
Introduction
With this paper I will show how a use case diagram should be used. I base this paper from fig. 3
– 11 pages 78 – 80 in our textbook titled: System Analysis and Design in a Changing World, 6th
edition, by Satzinger, Jackson, and Burd. In the Use Case Diagram that I make, I will depict a
use case for a RMO CSMS subsystem. I will also be describing the overview of the diagram. I
will also provide an analysis of the characters.
Use Case Introduction
An activity that a system performs is known as a use case. It is mostly in response to the
user. Use case analysis is a technique that is used for identifying the functional requirements of
the software system. A use case is to designate the point of view from a client and customer, this
is a use cases main purpose. An analytical role in the development process is done by the
developer. The other definition of a use case is as an objective or as an actor. Actors are with a
particular system and they want to achieve. In the use case diagram that I create, I will show the
actors and use cases for the RMO CSMS subsystem for marketing.
Marketing Subsystem
RMO CSMS
Marketing Merchandising
Overview
The overview of this use case diagram has the following: It shows the system boundary,
the association and the actors. The one that does the interaction with the system by entering or
receiving data is called a group, actor, external agent or person. Another part of the whole system
are the system boundaries. System boundaries are the computerized part of the application along
with the users who operate it. When a customer places a relationship between certain things such
as a certain employee in a department and an order, this would be a logical association. In my
diagram I have included two actors, one is representing marketing and the other represents
merchandising.
Analysis
The events and actions that define the interactions with a system and the role in order to
be able to discover a goal is a list of actions or steps in an event in a use case. The elements that
make up a use case diagram and the connections that are between a use case and the actors is an
association. This lets us know that there is communication between the actors and the use case.
On the marketing side they need to be able to update / add promotions, production and business
partners. On the merchandising side they need to be able to update / add production information
and accessory packages.
Summary
The important part of a use case diagram is that you can identi ...
An invited talk by Paco Nathan in the speaker series at the University of Chicago's Data Science for Social Good fellowship (2013-08-12) http://dssg.io/2013/05/21/the-fellowship-and-the-fellows.html
Learnings generalized from trends in Data Science:
a 30-year retrospective on Machine Learning,
a 10-year summary of Leading Data Science Teams,
and a 2-year survey of Enterprise Use Cases.
http://www.eventbrite.com/event/7476758185
Chapters 4,5 and 6Into policymaking and modeling in a comple.docxtiffanyd4
Chapters 4,5 and 6
Into policymaking and modeling in a complex world
From Building a model to adaptive robust decision- making using systems modelling
Features and added value of simulation Models using different modelling approaches supporting policymaking: A comparative analysis.
Chapter Goals and Objectives Overall – students will learn and understand
consequences of complexity in the real-world, and meaningful ways to understand and manage such situations
the implications of complexity and that many social systems are unpredictable by nature, especially when in the presence of structural change (transitions)
natural tendency to criticize the approaches that ignore difficulties and pretend to predict using simplistic models
that managing a complex system requires a good understanding of the dynamics of the system in question—to know, before they occur, some of the real possibilities that might occur and be ready so they can be reacted to as responsively as possible.
4. Policymaking and modeling in a complex world
the word “complexity” can be used to indicate a variety of kinds of difficulties
identification of complexity and uncertainty in policy-making
in very simple physical systems, interactions may give rise to complex behavior, expressed in different types of behavior, ranging from very stable to chaotic
reasons why complex adaptive systems have a strong capacity to self-organize
two of the ways systems are oversimplified: quantification and compartmentalization
models are assessed by their ability to predict/mirror observed aspects of the environments
5. From building a model to adaptive robust decision-making using systems modeling
System Dynamics Modeling and Simulation of Old
✓ methods for modeling and simulating dynamically complex systems
✓ evolutions in modeling and simulation with recent explosive growth in computational power, data, social media, to support decision-making
Recent Innovations and Expected Evolutions
✓ Why often seemingly more revolutionary—innovations have been introduced and demonstrated, but that they have not been massively adopted yet
Current and Expected Evolutions
✓ Three current evolutions expected to further reinforce - “experiential art” to “computational science.”
Future State of Practice of Systems Modeling and Simulation
✓ modeling and simulation with sparse data to modeling and simulation with (near real-time) big data;
✓ simulating and analyzing a few simulation runs to simulating and simultaneously analyzing well-selected ensembles of runs;
✓ using models for intuitive policy testing to using models as instruments for designing adaptive robust robust policies;
✓ developing educational flight simulators to fully integrated decision support.
Features and added value of simulation models using different modelling approaches to policy-making: A Comparative analysis
Foundations of Simulation Modelling
✓ model simplification definitions—smaller, less detailed, le.
Chapters 4,5 and 6Into policymaking and modeling in a comple.docxmccormicknadine86
Chapters 4,5 and 6
Into policymaking and modeling in a complex world
From Building a model to adaptive robust decision- making using systems modelling
Features and added value of simulation Models using different modelling approaches supporting policymaking: A comparative analysis.
Chapter Goals and Objectives Overall – students will learn and understand
consequences of complexity in the real-world, and meaningful ways to understand and manage such situations
the implications of complexity and that many social systems are unpredictable by nature, especially when in the presence of structural change (transitions)
natural tendency to criticize the approaches that ignore difficulties and pretend to predict using simplistic models
that managing a complex system requires a good understanding of the dynamics of the system in question—to know, before they occur, some of the real possibilities that might occur and be ready so they can be reacted to as responsively as possible.
4. Policymaking and modeling in a complex world
the word “complexity” can be used to indicate a variety of kinds of difficulties
identification of complexity and uncertainty in policy-making
in very simple physical systems, interactions may give rise to complex behavior, expressed in different types of behavior, ranging from very stable to chaotic
reasons why complex adaptive systems have a strong capacity to self-organize
two of the ways systems are oversimplified: quantification and compartmentalization
models are assessed by their ability to predict/mirror observed aspects of the environments
5. From building a model to adaptive robust decision-making using systems modeling
System Dynamics Modeling and Simulation of Old
✓ methods for modeling and simulating dynamically complex systems
✓ evolutions in modeling and simulation with recent explosive growth in computational power, data, social media, to support decision-making
Recent Innovations and Expected Evolutions
✓ Why often seemingly more revolutionary—innovations have been introduced and demonstrated, but that they have not been massively adopted yet
Current and Expected Evolutions
✓ Three current evolutions expected to further reinforce - “experiential art” to “computational science.”
Future State of Practice of Systems Modeling and Simulation
✓ modeling and simulation with sparse data to modeling and simulation with (near real-time) big data;
✓ simulating and analyzing a few simulation runs to simulating and simultaneously analyzing well-selected ensembles of runs;
✓ using models for intuitive policy testing to using models as instruments for designing adaptive robust robust policies;
✓ developing educational flight simulators to fully integrated decision support.
Features and added value of simulation models using different modelling approaches to policy-making: A Comparative analysis
Foundations of Simulation Modelling
✓ model simplification definitions—smaller, less detailed, le ...
Creating a Use Case
Jennifer LeClair
CIS 510
Instructor Name: Dr. Austin Umezurike
10/27/2016
Assignment 2:
Creating a Use Case
Introduction
With this paper I will show how a use case diagram should be used. I base this paper from fig. 3
– 11 pages 78 – 80 in our textbook titled: System Analysis and Design in a Changing World, 6th
edition, by Satzinger, Jackson, and Burd. In the Use Case Diagram that I make, I will depict a
use case for a RMO CSMS subsystem. I will also be describing the overview of the diagram. I
will also provide an analysis of the characters.
Use Case Introduction
An activity that a system performs is known as a use case. It is mostly in response to the
user. Use case analysis is a technique that is used for identifying the functional requirements of
the software system. A use case is to designate the point of view from a client and customer, this
is a use cases main purpose. An analytical role in the development process is done by the
developer. The other definition of a use case is as an objective or as an actor. Actors are with a
particular system and they want to achieve. In the use case diagram that I create, I will show the
actors and use cases for the RMO CSMS subsystem for marketing.
Marketing Subsystem
RMO CSMS
Marketing Merchandising
Overview
The overview of this use case diagram has the following: It shows the system boundary,
the association and the actors. The one that does the interaction with the system by entering or
receiving data is called a group, actor, external agent or person. Another part of the whole system
are the system boundaries. System boundaries are the computerized part of the application along
with the users who operate it. When a customer places a relationship between certain things such
as a certain employee in a department and an order, this would be a logical association. In my
diagram I have included two actors, one is representing marketing and the other represents
merchandising.
Analysis
The events and actions that define the interactions with a system and the role in order to
be able to discover a goal is a list of actions or steps in an event in a use case. The elements that
make up a use case diagram and the connections that are between a use case and the actors is an
association. This lets us know that there is communication between the actors and the use case.
On the marketing side they need to be able to update / add promotions, production and business
partners. On the merchandising side they need to be able to update / add production information
and accessory packages.
Summary
The important part of a use case diagram is that you can identi ...
An invited talk by Paco Nathan in the speaker series at the University of Chicago's Data Science for Social Good fellowship (2013-08-12) http://dssg.io/2013/05/21/the-fellowship-and-the-fellows.html
Learnings generalized from trends in Data Science:
a 30-year retrospective on Machine Learning,
a 10-year summary of Leading Data Science Teams,
and a 2-year survey of Enterprise Use Cases.
http://www.eventbrite.com/event/7476758185
Chapters 4,5 and 6Into policymaking and modeling in a comple.docxtiffanyd4
Chapters 4,5 and 6
Into policymaking and modeling in a complex world
From Building a model to adaptive robust decision- making using systems modelling
Features and added value of simulation Models using different modelling approaches supporting policymaking: A comparative analysis.
Chapter Goals and Objectives Overall – students will learn and understand
consequences of complexity in the real-world, and meaningful ways to understand and manage such situations
the implications of complexity and that many social systems are unpredictable by nature, especially when in the presence of structural change (transitions)
natural tendency to criticize the approaches that ignore difficulties and pretend to predict using simplistic models
that managing a complex system requires a good understanding of the dynamics of the system in question—to know, before they occur, some of the real possibilities that might occur and be ready so they can be reacted to as responsively as possible.
4. Policymaking and modeling in a complex world
the word “complexity” can be used to indicate a variety of kinds of difficulties
identification of complexity and uncertainty in policy-making
in very simple physical systems, interactions may give rise to complex behavior, expressed in different types of behavior, ranging from very stable to chaotic
reasons why complex adaptive systems have a strong capacity to self-organize
two of the ways systems are oversimplified: quantification and compartmentalization
models are assessed by their ability to predict/mirror observed aspects of the environments
5. From building a model to adaptive robust decision-making using systems modeling
System Dynamics Modeling and Simulation of Old
✓ methods for modeling and simulating dynamically complex systems
✓ evolutions in modeling and simulation with recent explosive growth in computational power, data, social media, to support decision-making
Recent Innovations and Expected Evolutions
✓ Why often seemingly more revolutionary—innovations have been introduced and demonstrated, but that they have not been massively adopted yet
Current and Expected Evolutions
✓ Three current evolutions expected to further reinforce - “experiential art” to “computational science.”
Future State of Practice of Systems Modeling and Simulation
✓ modeling and simulation with sparse data to modeling and simulation with (near real-time) big data;
✓ simulating and analyzing a few simulation runs to simulating and simultaneously analyzing well-selected ensembles of runs;
✓ using models for intuitive policy testing to using models as instruments for designing adaptive robust robust policies;
✓ developing educational flight simulators to fully integrated decision support.
Features and added value of simulation models using different modelling approaches to policy-making: A Comparative analysis
Foundations of Simulation Modelling
✓ model simplification definitions—smaller, less detailed, le.
Chapters 4,5 and 6Into policymaking and modeling in a comple.docxmccormicknadine86
Chapters 4,5 and 6
Into policymaking and modeling in a complex world
From Building a model to adaptive robust decision- making using systems modelling
Features and added value of simulation Models using different modelling approaches supporting policymaking: A comparative analysis.
Chapter Goals and Objectives Overall – students will learn and understand
consequences of complexity in the real-world, and meaningful ways to understand and manage such situations
the implications of complexity and that many social systems are unpredictable by nature, especially when in the presence of structural change (transitions)
natural tendency to criticize the approaches that ignore difficulties and pretend to predict using simplistic models
that managing a complex system requires a good understanding of the dynamics of the system in question—to know, before they occur, some of the real possibilities that might occur and be ready so they can be reacted to as responsively as possible.
4. Policymaking and modeling in a complex world
the word “complexity” can be used to indicate a variety of kinds of difficulties
identification of complexity and uncertainty in policy-making
in very simple physical systems, interactions may give rise to complex behavior, expressed in different types of behavior, ranging from very stable to chaotic
reasons why complex adaptive systems have a strong capacity to self-organize
two of the ways systems are oversimplified: quantification and compartmentalization
models are assessed by their ability to predict/mirror observed aspects of the environments
5. From building a model to adaptive robust decision-making using systems modeling
System Dynamics Modeling and Simulation of Old
✓ methods for modeling and simulating dynamically complex systems
✓ evolutions in modeling and simulation with recent explosive growth in computational power, data, social media, to support decision-making
Recent Innovations and Expected Evolutions
✓ Why often seemingly more revolutionary—innovations have been introduced and demonstrated, but that they have not been massively adopted yet
Current and Expected Evolutions
✓ Three current evolutions expected to further reinforce - “experiential art” to “computational science.”
Future State of Practice of Systems Modeling and Simulation
✓ modeling and simulation with sparse data to modeling and simulation with (near real-time) big data;
✓ simulating and analyzing a few simulation runs to simulating and simultaneously analyzing well-selected ensembles of runs;
✓ using models for intuitive policy testing to using models as instruments for designing adaptive robust robust policies;
✓ developing educational flight simulators to fully integrated decision support.
Features and added value of simulation models using different modelling approaches to policy-making: A Comparative analysis
Foundations of Simulation Modelling
✓ model simplification definitions—smaller, less detailed, le ...
New England CollegeFI6315 Managerial FinanceSummer I 2019P.docxvannagoforth
New England College
FI6315 Managerial Finance
Summer I 2019
Problem Set 2/Exam 2
Name:
Date:
Part 1 (19 points) ________
Part 2 (15 points) ________
Part 3 (19 points) ________
Part 4 (19 points) ________
Part 5 (14 points) ________
Part 6 (14 points) ________
Total
=======
Part 1:
Calculate the NPV for the following capital budgeting proposal: $100,000 initial cost for equipment, straight-line depreciation over 5 years to a zero book value, $5,000 pre-tax salvage value of equipment, 35% tax rate, $45,000 additional annual revenues, $15,000 additional annual cash expenses, $8,000 initial investment in working capital to be recouped at project end, and a cost of capital of 11%. Should the project be accepted or rejected? (Show your work computing the NPV.)
Part 2: Essay
Explain why bond prices fluctuate in response to changing interest rates. What adverse effect might occur if bond prices remain fixed prior to their maturity?
Part 3:
A stock offers an expected dividend of $3.50, has a required return of 14%, and has historically exhibited a growth rate of 6%. Its current price is $35.00 and shows no tendency to change. How can you explain this price based on the constant-growth dividend discount model?
Part 4:
Calculate the expected rate of return for the following portfolio, based on a Treasury bill yield of 4% and an expected market return of 13%: (Show your work)
Part 5: Essay
Discuss the capital asset pricing model in general, the CAPM method of determining expected returns, and how the SML can be used to help predict the movement of a stock's price.
Part 6: Essay
Contrast the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Standard and Poor's Composite Index.
fi6315 exam 2 spring ii 2019 (3).doc
There’s steps on the literature and methodology section in the report structure guide file on canvas, my part is separate from the intro, process model etc
(literature and methodlogy) Use the references at the end of the lecture slides for week 1-3 to help you explain functional and social and then relate it back to how we’ve reccommended it for the mining company. I don’t have to do anything else but this part is about 1000-1500 words
Just these parts
And for lit review there’s articles listed in the learning materials section in weeks 1-3
My group recommended this format as:
One person
intro - which involves answering the interview questions and indentifying the problem
One person
-Literature review - 6 references on the topic, can include the articles that are on the lectures from week 1-3
And methodology
Two people +the help of ...
Threaded Discussion What Skills Will a Manager Need to EffectivelTakishaPeck109
Threaded Discussion: What Skills Will a Manager Need to Effectively Manage Millennials Who Live in a Hip-Hop World?
INSTRUCTIONS:
For this threaded discussion list 5 effective ways to manage millennials who are in the workplace. In other words, you need to think of strategies that will help retain them as employees. Your initial response should be posted by Wednesday, October 27th at 11:59 PM. However, you have until Monday, November 1st at 11:59 PM to complete your other requirements for this assignment: respond to at least two of your classmates and/or Professor Wright. Please make sure you read the rubric to understand how you will be graded. Lastly, please make sure you post sentences that are grammatical correct and don't merely say yes or no. If you have any questions or concerns, PLEASE do not hesitate to contact me.
Initial response should be at least 150 words for the discussion post and no less than 100 words for the classmate’s response.
INITIAL RESPONSE IS DUE IN 20 HOURS AND CLASSMATES POST IS DUE MONDAY.
Reading Assignment-2
Chapter 3: Perception and Job Attitudes
Chapter 4: Learning and Reinforcement
FIRST CLASSMATE POST:
Collapse SubdiscussionTerrick PhillipsTerrick Phillips
YesterdayOct 26 at 1:31pm
Manage Discussion Entry
These are the ways I would manage millennials in the workplace.
1. Offer group work projects. Group projects will allow millennials to offer suggestions and be more assertive with collaborative projects.
2. Creating an ongoing learning environment. Millennials want to continue to learn new things, so I would make sure that they continue to apply their knowledge to improve their critical thinking. This will help them become more independent, which will also help them with their leadership.
3. Create a coaching culture and refrain from acting like a boss. Being a coach in a working environment will help millennials with their professional development while also providing them with the opportunity of collaboration and innovation.
4. Offer benefits. Millennials (as well as other generations) want to make sure that they getting something in return for the service they are providing. With being said, it's 5. Make them feel valued. Hosting different events to show gratitude. Appreciation can go a long way, and with millennials, if they feel like they are appreciated then they are more likely to work more efficiently.
SECOND CLASSMATE POST: Lillie Leach
YesterdayOct 27 at 11:24am
We first must learn the people that we managing. Different age groups come with different ways and needs. We learn this by studying their ways of the people manage. This way we know how to approach them.
1. I would give them the respect that I expect from them.
2. I would have a open door policy. This way they would have access to me.
3. I would learn how to speak their language. This will close any communication gaps.
4. I would have group meetings. This will help me to know their needs and to include them in the interworki ...
The DeLone and McLean Model ofInformation Systems Success.docxarnoldmeredith47041
The DeLone and McLean Model of
Information Systems Success:
A Ten-Year Update
WILLIAM H. D E L O N E AND EPHRAIM R. McLEAN
WILLIAM DELONE is an Associate Professor of Information Systems and Chair of the
Information Technology Department at the Kogod School of Business at American
University in Washington, DC. Professor DeLone's primary areas of research include
the assessment of information systems effectiveness and value, the implementation
and use of information technology in small and medium-sized businesses, and the
global management of information technology. He has been published in various
journals including Information Systems Research, MIS Quarterly. DATABASE, Jour-
nal of Global Information Management, and Journal of Information Technology
Management. Professor DeLone earned a B.S. in mathematics from Villanova Uni-
versity, an M.S. in industrial administration from Cai'negie Mellon University, and a
Ph.D. in Computers and Information Systems from the University of California, Los
Angeles.
EPHRAIM R. MCLE.'\N is a Regents' Professor and George E. Smith Eminent Scholar's
Chair in Information Systems in the Robinson College of Business at Georgia State
University, Atlanta. Prior to coming to Georgia State University in 1987, he was on
the faculty of the University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA) for 18 years. Dr.
McLean's research focuses on the management of information sen/ices, the value of
IS investments, and career issues for IS professionals. He has published over 125
papers in such journals as Information Systems Research, Journal of Management
Information Systems, MIS Quarterly, Management Science, Communications of the
ACM. DATABASE. Han>aril Business Review, Sloan Management Review, and others;
and his coauthored book. Information Technology for Management, now in its third
edition, is currently the second largest selling IS textbook in the world. Dr. McLean
earned his B.M.E. in mechanical engineering from Cornell University and his S.M.
and Ph.D. degrees from the Sloan School of Management at the Massachusetts Insti-
tute of Technology (MIT). He is also the Executive Director of the Association for
Information Systems (AISj and in 1999 was made a Eellow of the AIS.
ABSTRACT: Ten years ago, we presented the DeLone and McLean Information Sys-
tems (IS) Success Model as a framework and model for measuring the complex-
dependent variable in IS research. In this paper, we discuss many of the important IS
success research contributions of the last decade, focusing especially on research
efforts that apply, validate, challenge, and propose enhancements to our original model.
Based on our evaluation of those contributions, we propose minor i efinements to the
model and propose an updated DeLone and McLean IS Success Model. We discuss
the utility of the updated model for measuring e-commerce system success. Finally,
we make a series of recommendations regarding current and future measurement of
IS success.
Journal of Mantif(.
· Application 1 – Analysis and Synthesis of Prior ResearchAt pro.docxoswald1horne84988
· Application 1 – Analysis and Synthesis of Prior Research
At professional conferences, blocks of time may be set aside for what are termed "poster sessions." A hotel ballroom or large open area will be ringed with individuals who use displays such as posters or electronic presentations displayed via projectors. These sessions provide an opportunity to share one's research in an intimate setting, with a small group gathered around who share a similar interest. The seminar format of this course is very similar to this academic exchange. During one set of paired weeks, you will be appointed as a Group Leader. If you are one of the Group Leaders for this week, you are to prepare an academic presentation, much like a poster session.
Your presentation should present analysis and synthesis of prior research and will begin the interaction with your colleagues. You will prepare an academic paper of between 5–7 pages in APA format, as well as a PowerPoint presentation of 7–10 slides. This analysis will be an open-ended introduction to relevant topics of study regarding e-commerce management information systems. Your goal, as the presenter, should be to persuade your discussants that the approach(es) you have analyzed and synthesized is/are a sound means for discovering new methods to manage information systems. You should acknowledge that there are other models, or means to study MIS, but you should strive to be as persuasive as possible that the specific concepts you have reviewed are exciting research avenues and that they are potentially breakthrough areas for advancing the understanding of information systems, especially related to e-commerce.
Your paper and presentation should contain the following elements:
· An incorporation and analysis of at least 5 of the required resources from this pair of weeks
· The incorporation and analysis of 5 additional resources from the Walden Library
· An identification of principal schools of thought, tendencies in the academic literature, or commonalities that define the academic scholarship regarding your topic
· An evaluation of the main concepts with a focus on their application to management practice and their impact on positive social change
In addition to the above elements, the Group Leader(s) for this week will focus thematically on:
· Define each of the universally used acronyms, terms and concepts listed below. For each, give examples where appropriate, and compare and contrast related concepts (like structured and unstructured problems):
·
6. TPS
6. MIS
6. DSS
6. Structured problem
6. Unstructured problem
6. Problem-solving process
6. Decision-making process
. Evaluate the research regarding group decision-making systems and executive information systems. Be sure to demonstrate your ability to identify the purpose or goals of each type of system, the typical inputs, outputs and other components, and the typical users. Provide examples whenever relevant.
Post your 5-7 page paper and your PowerPoint.
This book is not finished. We’ve been developing it over the past few years. It began as a manilla folder with copies of different process models. We completed the first “book” version as part of a project undertaken for Elaine Coleman and Sun’s Virtual Center for Innovation. We present this version for educational purposes only. We have obtained no permissions to reproduce any of the models. Copyrights remain with their owners.
If you know of any models which are not featured in this book, please feel free to share them with us.
Everyone designs. The teacher arranging desks for a discussion. The entrepreneur planning a business. The team building a rocket.
Their results differ. So do their goals. So do the scales of their projects and the media they use. Even their actions appear quite different. What’s similar is that they are designing. What’s similar are the processes they follow.
Our processes determine the quality of our products. If we wish to improve our products, we must improve our processes; we must continually redesign not just our products but also the way we design. That’s why we study the design process. To know what we do and how we do it. To understand it and improve it. To become better designers.
Explain in your own words why it is important to read a statistical .docxAlleneMcclendon878
Explain in your own words why it is important to read a statistical study carefully. Can you think of circumstance where it might be okay to misrepresent data?
Video Reflection 12 -
Do you think it is possible to create a study where there really is no bias sampling done? How would you manage to create one?
Video Reflection 13 -
What are your thoughts on statistics being misrepresented/ how does it make you feel? Why do you think the statistic are often presented in this way?
.
Explain how Matthew editedchanged Marks Gospel for each of the fol.docxAlleneMcclendon878
Explain how Matthew edited/changed Mark's Gospel for each of the following passages, and what reasons would he have had for doing that? What in Mk’s version was Mt trying to avoid – i.e., why he might have viewed Mk’s material as misleading, incorrect, or problematic? How did those changes contribute to Matthew’s overall message? How did that link up with other parts of Mt’s message?
Use both the following two sets of passages to support your claim, making use ONLY of the resources below, the Bible, textbooks and Module resources.
1. How did Matthew edit/change Mark 6:45-52 to produce Matthew 14:22-33 – and why?
2. How did Matthew edit/change Mark 9:2-10 to produce Matthew 17:1-13 – and why?
The paper should 350-750 words in length, double-spaced, and using MLA formatting for reference citations and bibliography. Submit the completed assignment to the appropriate Dropbox by
no later than Sunday 11:59 PM Eastern.
Resources for this paper:
See the ebook via SLU library:
New Testament History and Literature
by Martin (2012), pp. 83-88,105-108.
See the ebook via SLU library:
The Gospels
by Barton and Muddiman (2010), p. 53,56-57,102,109.
.
Explain the degree to which media portrayal of crime relates to publ.docxAlleneMcclendon878
Explain the degree to which media portrayal of crime relates to public fear of crime and explain how.
Explain whether public fear of crime might influence individual behavior or not and explain how or how not.
Share an insight about whether media should be responsible or not for the portrayal of crime as it relates to public fear of crime.
2 Pages in APA Format
.
Explain the difference between genotype and phenotype. Give an examp.docxAlleneMcclendon878
Explain the difference between genotype and phenotype. Give an example of each and describe both in an account that relates to you personally, the
paper should be 2-3 pages in length (not counting the title and resources pages), APA style (no abstract required), and should be supported with appropriate citations.
.
Explain the history behind the Black Soldier of the Civil War In t.docxAlleneMcclendon878
Explain the history behind the Black Soldier of the Civil War
In this forum look beyond the book for information on specific units, soldiers and even the reasons for why Lincoln allowed the African American to service in the war.
Soldiers - the trained and untrained
Initial post of at least 300 words due by Friday.
Darlene Hine, William Hine, and Stanley Harrold.
The African-American Odyssey: Volume I, 6th ed. New Jersey: Pearson 2014.
.
Explain the fundamental reasons why brands do not exist in isolation.docxAlleneMcclendon878
Explain the fundamental reasons why brands do not exist in isolation but do exist in larger environments that include other brands. Provide two (2) specific recommendations or solutions that can help a health care facility improve patient satisfaction.
Assess the value of Lederer and Hill's Brand Portfolio Molecule when used to understand brand relationships. Provide at least two (2) specific examples of strategic or tactical initiatives within a health care organization.
.
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New England CollegeFI6315 Managerial FinanceSummer I 2019P.docxvannagoforth
New England College
FI6315 Managerial Finance
Summer I 2019
Problem Set 2/Exam 2
Name:
Date:
Part 1 (19 points) ________
Part 2 (15 points) ________
Part 3 (19 points) ________
Part 4 (19 points) ________
Part 5 (14 points) ________
Part 6 (14 points) ________
Total
=======
Part 1:
Calculate the NPV for the following capital budgeting proposal: $100,000 initial cost for equipment, straight-line depreciation over 5 years to a zero book value, $5,000 pre-tax salvage value of equipment, 35% tax rate, $45,000 additional annual revenues, $15,000 additional annual cash expenses, $8,000 initial investment in working capital to be recouped at project end, and a cost of capital of 11%. Should the project be accepted or rejected? (Show your work computing the NPV.)
Part 2: Essay
Explain why bond prices fluctuate in response to changing interest rates. What adverse effect might occur if bond prices remain fixed prior to their maturity?
Part 3:
A stock offers an expected dividend of $3.50, has a required return of 14%, and has historically exhibited a growth rate of 6%. Its current price is $35.00 and shows no tendency to change. How can you explain this price based on the constant-growth dividend discount model?
Part 4:
Calculate the expected rate of return for the following portfolio, based on a Treasury bill yield of 4% and an expected market return of 13%: (Show your work)
Part 5: Essay
Discuss the capital asset pricing model in general, the CAPM method of determining expected returns, and how the SML can be used to help predict the movement of a stock's price.
Part 6: Essay
Contrast the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Standard and Poor's Composite Index.
fi6315 exam 2 spring ii 2019 (3).doc
There’s steps on the literature and methodology section in the report structure guide file on canvas, my part is separate from the intro, process model etc
(literature and methodlogy) Use the references at the end of the lecture slides for week 1-3 to help you explain functional and social and then relate it back to how we’ve reccommended it for the mining company. I don’t have to do anything else but this part is about 1000-1500 words
Just these parts
And for lit review there’s articles listed in the learning materials section in weeks 1-3
My group recommended this format as:
One person
intro - which involves answering the interview questions and indentifying the problem
One person
-Literature review - 6 references on the topic, can include the articles that are on the lectures from week 1-3
And methodology
Two people +the help of ...
Threaded Discussion What Skills Will a Manager Need to EffectivelTakishaPeck109
Threaded Discussion: What Skills Will a Manager Need to Effectively Manage Millennials Who Live in a Hip-Hop World?
INSTRUCTIONS:
For this threaded discussion list 5 effective ways to manage millennials who are in the workplace. In other words, you need to think of strategies that will help retain them as employees. Your initial response should be posted by Wednesday, October 27th at 11:59 PM. However, you have until Monday, November 1st at 11:59 PM to complete your other requirements for this assignment: respond to at least two of your classmates and/or Professor Wright. Please make sure you read the rubric to understand how you will be graded. Lastly, please make sure you post sentences that are grammatical correct and don't merely say yes or no. If you have any questions or concerns, PLEASE do not hesitate to contact me.
Initial response should be at least 150 words for the discussion post and no less than 100 words for the classmate’s response.
INITIAL RESPONSE IS DUE IN 20 HOURS AND CLASSMATES POST IS DUE MONDAY.
Reading Assignment-2
Chapter 3: Perception and Job Attitudes
Chapter 4: Learning and Reinforcement
FIRST CLASSMATE POST:
Collapse SubdiscussionTerrick PhillipsTerrick Phillips
YesterdayOct 26 at 1:31pm
Manage Discussion Entry
These are the ways I would manage millennials in the workplace.
1. Offer group work projects. Group projects will allow millennials to offer suggestions and be more assertive with collaborative projects.
2. Creating an ongoing learning environment. Millennials want to continue to learn new things, so I would make sure that they continue to apply their knowledge to improve their critical thinking. This will help them become more independent, which will also help them with their leadership.
3. Create a coaching culture and refrain from acting like a boss. Being a coach in a working environment will help millennials with their professional development while also providing them with the opportunity of collaboration and innovation.
4. Offer benefits. Millennials (as well as other generations) want to make sure that they getting something in return for the service they are providing. With being said, it's 5. Make them feel valued. Hosting different events to show gratitude. Appreciation can go a long way, and with millennials, if they feel like they are appreciated then they are more likely to work more efficiently.
SECOND CLASSMATE POST: Lillie Leach
YesterdayOct 27 at 11:24am
We first must learn the people that we managing. Different age groups come with different ways and needs. We learn this by studying their ways of the people manage. This way we know how to approach them.
1. I would give them the respect that I expect from them.
2. I would have a open door policy. This way they would have access to me.
3. I would learn how to speak their language. This will close any communication gaps.
4. I would have group meetings. This will help me to know their needs and to include them in the interworki ...
The DeLone and McLean Model ofInformation Systems Success.docxarnoldmeredith47041
The DeLone and McLean Model of
Information Systems Success:
A Ten-Year Update
WILLIAM H. D E L O N E AND EPHRAIM R. McLEAN
WILLIAM DELONE is an Associate Professor of Information Systems and Chair of the
Information Technology Department at the Kogod School of Business at American
University in Washington, DC. Professor DeLone's primary areas of research include
the assessment of information systems effectiveness and value, the implementation
and use of information technology in small and medium-sized businesses, and the
global management of information technology. He has been published in various
journals including Information Systems Research, MIS Quarterly. DATABASE, Jour-
nal of Global Information Management, and Journal of Information Technology
Management. Professor DeLone earned a B.S. in mathematics from Villanova Uni-
versity, an M.S. in industrial administration from Cai'negie Mellon University, and a
Ph.D. in Computers and Information Systems from the University of California, Los
Angeles.
EPHRAIM R. MCLE.'\N is a Regents' Professor and George E. Smith Eminent Scholar's
Chair in Information Systems in the Robinson College of Business at Georgia State
University, Atlanta. Prior to coming to Georgia State University in 1987, he was on
the faculty of the University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA) for 18 years. Dr.
McLean's research focuses on the management of information sen/ices, the value of
IS investments, and career issues for IS professionals. He has published over 125
papers in such journals as Information Systems Research, Journal of Management
Information Systems, MIS Quarterly, Management Science, Communications of the
ACM. DATABASE. Han>aril Business Review, Sloan Management Review, and others;
and his coauthored book. Information Technology for Management, now in its third
edition, is currently the second largest selling IS textbook in the world. Dr. McLean
earned his B.M.E. in mechanical engineering from Cornell University and his S.M.
and Ph.D. degrees from the Sloan School of Management at the Massachusetts Insti-
tute of Technology (MIT). He is also the Executive Director of the Association for
Information Systems (AISj and in 1999 was made a Eellow of the AIS.
ABSTRACT: Ten years ago, we presented the DeLone and McLean Information Sys-
tems (IS) Success Model as a framework and model for measuring the complex-
dependent variable in IS research. In this paper, we discuss many of the important IS
success research contributions of the last decade, focusing especially on research
efforts that apply, validate, challenge, and propose enhancements to our original model.
Based on our evaluation of those contributions, we propose minor i efinements to the
model and propose an updated DeLone and McLean IS Success Model. We discuss
the utility of the updated model for measuring e-commerce system success. Finally,
we make a series of recommendations regarding current and future measurement of
IS success.
Journal of Mantif(.
· Application 1 – Analysis and Synthesis of Prior ResearchAt pro.docxoswald1horne84988
· Application 1 – Analysis and Synthesis of Prior Research
At professional conferences, blocks of time may be set aside for what are termed "poster sessions." A hotel ballroom or large open area will be ringed with individuals who use displays such as posters or electronic presentations displayed via projectors. These sessions provide an opportunity to share one's research in an intimate setting, with a small group gathered around who share a similar interest. The seminar format of this course is very similar to this academic exchange. During one set of paired weeks, you will be appointed as a Group Leader. If you are one of the Group Leaders for this week, you are to prepare an academic presentation, much like a poster session.
Your presentation should present analysis and synthesis of prior research and will begin the interaction with your colleagues. You will prepare an academic paper of between 5–7 pages in APA format, as well as a PowerPoint presentation of 7–10 slides. This analysis will be an open-ended introduction to relevant topics of study regarding e-commerce management information systems. Your goal, as the presenter, should be to persuade your discussants that the approach(es) you have analyzed and synthesized is/are a sound means for discovering new methods to manage information systems. You should acknowledge that there are other models, or means to study MIS, but you should strive to be as persuasive as possible that the specific concepts you have reviewed are exciting research avenues and that they are potentially breakthrough areas for advancing the understanding of information systems, especially related to e-commerce.
Your paper and presentation should contain the following elements:
· An incorporation and analysis of at least 5 of the required resources from this pair of weeks
· The incorporation and analysis of 5 additional resources from the Walden Library
· An identification of principal schools of thought, tendencies in the academic literature, or commonalities that define the academic scholarship regarding your topic
· An evaluation of the main concepts with a focus on their application to management practice and their impact on positive social change
In addition to the above elements, the Group Leader(s) for this week will focus thematically on:
· Define each of the universally used acronyms, terms and concepts listed below. For each, give examples where appropriate, and compare and contrast related concepts (like structured and unstructured problems):
·
6. TPS
6. MIS
6. DSS
6. Structured problem
6. Unstructured problem
6. Problem-solving process
6. Decision-making process
. Evaluate the research regarding group decision-making systems and executive information systems. Be sure to demonstrate your ability to identify the purpose or goals of each type of system, the typical inputs, outputs and other components, and the typical users. Provide examples whenever relevant.
Post your 5-7 page paper and your PowerPoint.
This book is not finished. We’ve been developing it over the past few years. It began as a manilla folder with copies of different process models. We completed the first “book” version as part of a project undertaken for Elaine Coleman and Sun’s Virtual Center for Innovation. We present this version for educational purposes only. We have obtained no permissions to reproduce any of the models. Copyrights remain with their owners.
If you know of any models which are not featured in this book, please feel free to share them with us.
Everyone designs. The teacher arranging desks for a discussion. The entrepreneur planning a business. The team building a rocket.
Their results differ. So do their goals. So do the scales of their projects and the media they use. Even their actions appear quite different. What’s similar is that they are designing. What’s similar are the processes they follow.
Our processes determine the quality of our products. If we wish to improve our products, we must improve our processes; we must continually redesign not just our products but also the way we design. That’s why we study the design process. To know what we do and how we do it. To understand it and improve it. To become better designers.
Explain in your own words why it is important to read a statistical .docxAlleneMcclendon878
Explain in your own words why it is important to read a statistical study carefully. Can you think of circumstance where it might be okay to misrepresent data?
Video Reflection 12 -
Do you think it is possible to create a study where there really is no bias sampling done? How would you manage to create one?
Video Reflection 13 -
What are your thoughts on statistics being misrepresented/ how does it make you feel? Why do you think the statistic are often presented in this way?
.
Explain how Matthew editedchanged Marks Gospel for each of the fol.docxAlleneMcclendon878
Explain how Matthew edited/changed Mark's Gospel for each of the following passages, and what reasons would he have had for doing that? What in Mk’s version was Mt trying to avoid – i.e., why he might have viewed Mk’s material as misleading, incorrect, or problematic? How did those changes contribute to Matthew’s overall message? How did that link up with other parts of Mt’s message?
Use both the following two sets of passages to support your claim, making use ONLY of the resources below, the Bible, textbooks and Module resources.
1. How did Matthew edit/change Mark 6:45-52 to produce Matthew 14:22-33 – and why?
2. How did Matthew edit/change Mark 9:2-10 to produce Matthew 17:1-13 – and why?
The paper should 350-750 words in length, double-spaced, and using MLA formatting for reference citations and bibliography. Submit the completed assignment to the appropriate Dropbox by
no later than Sunday 11:59 PM Eastern.
Resources for this paper:
See the ebook via SLU library:
New Testament History and Literature
by Martin (2012), pp. 83-88,105-108.
See the ebook via SLU library:
The Gospels
by Barton and Muddiman (2010), p. 53,56-57,102,109.
.
Explain the degree to which media portrayal of crime relates to publ.docxAlleneMcclendon878
Explain the degree to which media portrayal of crime relates to public fear of crime and explain how.
Explain whether public fear of crime might influence individual behavior or not and explain how or how not.
Share an insight about whether media should be responsible or not for the portrayal of crime as it relates to public fear of crime.
2 Pages in APA Format
.
Explain the difference between genotype and phenotype. Give an examp.docxAlleneMcclendon878
Explain the difference between genotype and phenotype. Give an example of each and describe both in an account that relates to you personally, the
paper should be 2-3 pages in length (not counting the title and resources pages), APA style (no abstract required), and should be supported with appropriate citations.
.
Explain the history behind the Black Soldier of the Civil War In t.docxAlleneMcclendon878
Explain the history behind the Black Soldier of the Civil War
In this forum look beyond the book for information on specific units, soldiers and even the reasons for why Lincoln allowed the African American to service in the war.
Soldiers - the trained and untrained
Initial post of at least 300 words due by Friday.
Darlene Hine, William Hine, and Stanley Harrold.
The African-American Odyssey: Volume I, 6th ed. New Jersey: Pearson 2014.
.
Explain the fundamental reasons why brands do not exist in isolation.docxAlleneMcclendon878
Explain the fundamental reasons why brands do not exist in isolation but do exist in larger environments that include other brands. Provide two (2) specific recommendations or solutions that can help a health care facility improve patient satisfaction.
Assess the value of Lederer and Hill's Brand Portfolio Molecule when used to understand brand relationships. Provide at least two (2) specific examples of strategic or tactical initiatives within a health care organization.
.
Explain the difference between hypothetical and categorical imperati.docxAlleneMcclendon878
Explain the difference between hypothetical and categorical imperatives. How might this distinction be used to explore the practice of correctional facilities placing violent prisoners in solitary confinement?
Please use in-text citations and provide references. Seeking a one-page response.
.
Explain in 100 words provide exampleThe capital budgeting decisi.docxAlleneMcclendon878
Explain in 100 words provide example
The capital budgeting decision techniques that we've discussed all have strengths and weaknesses, but they do comprise the most popular rules for valuing projects. Valuing entire businesses, on the other hand, requires that some adjustments be made to various pieces of these methodologies. For example, one alternative to NPV used quite frequently for valuing firms is called Adjusted Present Value (APV).
What is APV, and how does it differ from NPV?
.
Explain how Supreme Court decisions influenced the evolution of the .docxAlleneMcclendon878
Explain how Supreme Court decisions influenced the evolution of the death penalty.
Explain the financial impact of the death penalty on society. Include at least one specific cost associated with the death penalty.
Explain the social impact of the death penalty on society. Provide examples and use Learning Resources to support your statements. 2 pages in APA format
.
Explain how an offender is classified according to risk when he or s.docxAlleneMcclendon878
Explain how an offender is classified according to risk when he or she is placed on probation or parole. Include how static and dynamic factors are taken into account by the supervising officer when both determining the level of supervision an offender needs and in developing the case-supervision plan for the offender. Include a discussion on the various levels of probation/parole supervision and the amount of surveillance and contact with the offender involved with each level. Do you agree or disagree with how often probation and parole officers have contact with high-risk offenders? Make sure to support your opinion.
.
Explain a lesson plan. Describe the different types of information.docxAlleneMcclendon878
Explain a lesson plan. Describe the different types of information found in a detailed lesson plan. Include in your discussion a design document and its usefulness. (A Minimum 525 Words)
Reference:
Noe, R. A. (2013). Employee training and development (6th ed.). New York, NY: McGraw-Hill.
.
explain the different roles of basic and applied researchdescribe .docxAlleneMcclendon878
explain the different roles of basic and applied research
describe the different criteria for success of basic and applied research
explain why government policymakers seem to prefer applied research
describe how basic research reflects liberal democratic values
Over fifty years ago, Vannevar Bush released his enormously influential report, Science, the Endless Frontier, which asserted a dichotomy between basic and applied science. This view was at the core of the compact between government and science that led to the golden age of scientific research after World War II—a compact that is currently under severe stress. In this book, Donald Stokes challenges Bush’s view and maintains that we can only rebuild the relationship between government and the scientific community when we understand what is wrong with that view.
Stokes begins with an analysis of the goals of understanding and use in scientific research. He recasts the widely accepted view of the tension between understanding and use, citing as a model case the fundamental yet use-inspired studies by which Louis Pasteur laid the foundations of microbiology a century ago. Pasteur worked in the era of the “second industrial revolution,” when the relationship between basic science and technological change assumed its modern form. Over subsequent decades, technology has been increasingly science-based. But science has been increasingly technology-based–with the choice of problems and the conduct of research often inspired by societal needs. An example is the work of the quantum-effects physicists who are probing the phenomena revealed by the miniaturization of semiconductors from the time of the transistor’s discovery after World War II.
On this revised, interactive view of science and technology, Stokes builds a convincing case that by recognizing the importance of use-inspired basic research we can frame a new compact between science and government. His conclusions have major implications for both the scientific and policy communities and will be of great interest to those in the broader public who are troubled by the current role of basic science in American democracy.
Why the distinction between basic (theoretical) and applied
(practical) research is important in the politics of science
.
Explain the basics of inspirational and emotion-provoking communicat.docxAlleneMcclendon878
Explain the basics of inspirational and emotion-provoking communication.
Explain the key features of a power-oriented linguistic style.
Explain the six basic principles of persuasion.
Evaluate basic approaches to resolving conflict and negotiating.
Choose one of the above topics
1 Paragraph
1 APA citation
.
Explain how leaders develop through self-awareness and self-discipli.docxAlleneMcclendon878
Explain how leaders develop through self-awareness and self-discipline.
Explain how leaders develop through education, experience, and mentoring.
Explain and classify the nature of leadership development programs.
Explain the nature of leadership succession and the importance of this practice.
3-4 page paper
APA Citation
4 sources
.
Explain five ways that you can maintain professionalism in the meeti.docxAlleneMcclendon878
Explain five ways that you can maintain professionalism in the meeting and convention planning industry.
1.
Order of precedence
2.
Titles and styles of address
3.
Invitations
4.
Flags
5.
Religious, cultural and ritual observations
.
Explain security awareness and its importance.Your response should.docxAlleneMcclendon878
Explain security awareness and its importance.
Your response should be at least 200 words in length.
Explain network and data privacy policies.
Your response should be at least 200 words in length.
Explain the different security positions within information security.
Your response should be at least 200 words in length.
Explain what a security incident response team handles.
Your response should be at least 200 words in length.
.
Experimental Design AssignmentYou were given an Aedesaegyp.docxAlleneMcclendon878
Experimental Design Assignment
You were given an
Aedes
aegypti
gene of unknown function. Using Blast you were able to find the homologs of your gene. You have done research regarding the function of the homologs. Using this information:
A.Construct
a hypothesis
Give a hypothesis on the function of your gene SHAKER is in Aedesaegypti.
B.Design
an experiment to test your hypothesis.
Include a
labeled
sketch and written summary of experiment. (
include drawing of all conditions
, negative/positive etc)
C. Variables
List the Dependent and Independent
List Control variable
List a Positive and /or Negative controls
D.
Create a
data
set
and figure
Create a graph that clearly conveys to the reader what your experiment is about.
F.Interpretation
Give an interpretation of the possible meaning of your data. (although this isn’t conclusive since we are not doing statistics) . Does it align with your hypothesis?
G.Self-critique
and follow-up questions:
Why might your conclusion be wrong, what other questions do you have.
.
Expand your website plan.Select at least three interactive fea.docxAlleneMcclendon878
Expand
your website plan.
Select
at least three interactive features that could be added to your site.
Identify
the following:
What purpose would each feature serve for your site and its visitors?
How would you construct these features?
Note
: The form created in the next individual activity, "Individual: Refine and Finalize Website" can be included as one of the interactive features.
.
Exercise 7 Use el pronombre y la forma correcta del verbo._.docxAlleneMcclendon878
Exercise 7: Use el pronombre y la forma correcta del verbo.
____________________________
gustar faltar quedar molestar
encantar fascinar interesar
____________________________
1. A mi ______ __________ la poesía romántica.
2. A nosotros ______ ________ estudiar lenguas extranjeras.
3. A las muchachas ______ _______ la música de Julio Iglesias.
4. A Juan y a Ramón ______ ___________ practicar los deportes.
5. A ti no _____ _________ el café.
6. A la profesora no ______ ________ preparar los exámenes.
7. Al consejero _____ ____________ los estudiantes.
8. A los atletas ____ ___________ el gimnasio.
9. Tenemos $500 y pagamos $350 por la matricula. ___ ___________ $150.
10. A los doctores ____ ________ la medicina.
11. A nosotros ____ ________ las pizzas.
12. A ellos ____ __________ la violencia.
13. En la Argentina bailan mucho. A ellos ____ ______ el tango.
14. Nosotros deseamos buscar el vocabulario. ____ __________ un diccionario.
15. Uds. desean llamar a los amigos. ____ ________ un teléfono.
16. A los estudiantes ________ ________ las vacaciones.
17. A mí ________ _________ los actores.
18. A Ud. _________ ____________ solamente diez dólares.
19. A Alberto y a Juan _______ ____________ el béisbol.
20. A ti _______ ____________ trabajar.
21. A Marisa _____ _____________ la música popular.
22. Nosotros terminamos una clase de español y ahora, _________ _______ dos clases
de español.
.
Exercise 21-8 (Part Level Submission)The following facts pertain.docxAlleneMcclendon878
Exercise 21-8 (Part Level Submission)
The following facts pertain to a noncancelable lease agreement between Windsor Leasing Company and Sheridan Company, a lessee.
Inception date:
May 1, 2017
Annual lease payment due at the beginning of
each year, beginning with May 1, 2017
$21,737.01
Bargain-purchase option price at end of lease term
$3,800
Lease term
5
years
Economic life of leased equipment
10
years
Lessor’s cost
$68,000
Fair value of asset at May 1, 2017
$93,000
Lessor’s implicit rate
10
%
Lessee’s incremental borrowing rate
10
%
The collectibility of the lease payments is reasonably predictable, and there are no important uncertainties surrounding the costs yet to be incurred by the lessor. The lessee assumes responsibility for all executory costs.
Click here to view factor tables
(c)
Your answer is partially correct. Try again.
Prepare a lease amortization schedule for Sheridan Company for the 5-year lease term.
(Round present value factor calculations to 5 decimal places, e.g. 1.25125 and Round answers to 2 decimal places, e.g. 15.25.)
SHERIDAN COMPANY (Lessee)
Lease Amortization Schedule
Date
Annual Lease Payment Plus
BPO
Interest on
Liability
Reduction of Lease
Liability
Lease Liability
5/1/17
$
[removed]
[removed]
[removed]
[removed]
[removed]
[removed]
(To record depreciation.)
[removed]
[removed]
[removed]
[removed]
[removed]
[removed]
(To record interest.)
1/1/18
[removed]
[removed]
[removed]
[removed]
[removed]
[removed]
[removed]
[removed]
[removed]
(To record second payament.)
Question 27
Pearl Corporation manufactures replicators. On January 1, 2017, it leased to Althaus Company a replicator that had cost $100,000 to manufacture. The lease agreement covers the 5-year useful life of the replicator and requires 5 equal annual rentals of $40,200 payable each January 1, beginning January 1, 2017. An interest rate of 12% is implicit in the lease agreement. Collectibility of the rentals is reasonably assured, and there are no important uncertainties concerning costs.
Prepare Pearl’s January 1, 2017, journal entries.
(Credit account titles are automatically indented when amount is entered. Do not indent manually. If no entry is required, select "No Entry" for the account titles and enter 0 for the amounts. Round present value factor calculations to 5 decimal places, e.g. 1.25124 and the final answer to 0 decimal places e.g. 58,971
.
)
Click here to view factor tables
Date
Account Titles and Explanation
Debit
Credit
January 1, 2017
[removed]
[removed]
[removed]
[removed]
[removed]
[removed]
(To record the lease.)
January 1, 2017
[removed]
[removed]
[removed]
[removed]
[removed]
[removed]
(To record cost.)
January 1, 2017
[removed]
[removed]
[removed]
[removed]
[removed]
[removed]
(To record first lease payment.)
6 years ago
16.01.2017
8
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what can i bring to class that symbolizes growth and change
calculate it.
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writing
Sterman
I 1
ISBN : 007238915X
TITLE: BUSINESS DYNAMICS : SYSTEMS THINKING I 1
t
RIAL : 291000
CLASS: BUSINESS
EXHIB :
2. Business Dynamics
Systems Thinking and
Modeling for a Complex World
John D. Sterman
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Sloan School of Management
Boston Burr Ridge, IL Dubuque, IA Madison, WI New York San
Francisco St. Louis
Bangkok Bogota Caracas Lisbon London Madrid
Mexico City Milan New Delhi Seoul Singapore Sydney Taipei
Toronto
McGraw-Hill Higher Education
A Division of f i e McGraw-Hill Companies
BUSINESS DYNAMICS
SYSTEMS THINKING AND MOOELING FOR A COMPLEX
WORLD
Copyright 0 2000 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. AU
rights reserved. Printcd in the United '
States of America. Except as permitted under the United States
Copyright Act of 1976, no part of
this publication may be reproduced or dismbuted in any form or
by m y means, or stored in a
database or retrieval system, without the prior written
3. permission of the publisher.
This book is printed on acid-free paper. .h
4 5 6 7 8 9 0 KGPiKGP 0 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2
ISBN 0-07-231135-5
Publisher: Jeffrey J. Shelsfud
Senior sponsoring editor: Scott Isenberg
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Compositor: GAChdianapolis
Typeface: 11/13 Ernes Roman
Printer: Quebecor Printing Book Group/Kingsport
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Sterman, John.
Business dynamics : systems thinking and modeling for a
complex world I John D. Sterman.
Includes hibliographical references and index.
ISBN 0-07-231135-5 (alk. paper)
1. Indusmal management. 2. System theory. 3. Management
information systems. I.
p. cm.
4. Title.
HD30.2.S7835 2000
658.4'038'011Ldc21
99-056030
http://www.mhhe.com
For Cindy
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
John D. Sterman is J. Spencer Standish Professor of
Management at the Sloan
School of Management of the Massachusetts Institute of
Technology and Director
of MIT’s System Dynamics Group. His research centers on the
development of
practical methods for systems thinking and dynamic modeling
of complex sys-
tems, with applications to organizational learning and change,
operations manage-
ment, corporate strategy, and nonlinear dynamics in a wide
range of systems, from
supply chains to scientific revolutions. He has pioneered the
development of man-
agement flight simulators of corporate and economic systems.
These flight simu-
lators are used in research to understand and improve
managerial decision making
in complex dynamic systems; more importantly, they are now
widely used by cor-
5. porations and universities around the world for teaching,
problem solving, and pol-
icy design. Professor Sterman discovered system dynamics
modeling in high
school, studied it as an undergraduate at Dartmouth College,
and received his PhD
from MIT. He has been awarded the Jay W. Forrester Prize,
given for the best pub-
lished work in the field of system dynamics over the prior five
years, and has four
times won awards for teaching excellence from the students of
the Sloan School.
vi
Preface
Accelerating economic, technological, social, and
environmental change challenge
managers and policy makers to learn at increasing rates, while
at the same time the
complexity of the systems in which we live is growing. Many of
the problems we
now face arise as unanticipated side effects of our own past
actions. All too often
the policies we implement to solve important problems fail,
make the problem
worse, or create new problems.
Effective decision making and learning in a world of growing
dynamic com-
plexity requires us to become systems thinkers-to expand the
boundaries of our
mental models and develop tools to understand how the
6. structure of complex sys-
tems creates their behavior.
This book introduces you to system dynamics modeling for the
analysis of pol-
icy and strategy, with a focus on business and public policy
applications. System
dynamics is a perspective and set of conceptual tools that
enable us to understand
the structure and dynamics of complex systems. System
dynamics is also a rigor-
ous modeling method that enables us to build formal computer
simulations of com-
plex systems and use them to design more effective policies and
organizations.
Together, these tools allow us to create management flight
simulators-micro-
worlds where space and time can be compressed and slowed so
we can experience
the long-term side effects of decisions, speed learning, develop
our understanding
of complex systems, and design structures and strategies for
greater success.
The field of system dynamics is thriving. Over the past decade,
many top com-
panies, consulting firms, and governmental organizations have
used system dy-
namics to address critical issues. More innovative universities
and business
schools are teaching system dynamics and finding enthusiastic
and growing en-
rollments. Hundreds of primary and secondary schools, from
kindergarten to high
school, are integrating systems thinking, system dynamics, and
computer simula-
7. tion into their curricula. Tools and methods for system
dynamics modeling, the li-
brary of successful applications, and insights into the effective
use of the tools with
executives and organizations are all expanding rapidly.
vii
viii Preface
FEATURES AND CONTENT
University and graduate-level texts, particularly those focused
on business and
public policy applications, have not kept pace with the growth
of the field. This
book is designed to provide thorough coverage of the field of
system dynamics to-
day, by examining
Systems thinking and the system dynamics worldview;
Tools for systems thinking, including methods to elicit and map
the
structure of complex systems and relate those structures to their
dynamics;
Tools for modeling and simulation of complex systems;
Procedures for testing and improving models;
Guidelines for working with client teams and successful
implementation.
You will learn about the dynamics of complex systems,
including the structures
that create growth, goal-seeking behavior, oscillation and
instability, S-shaped
growth, overshoot and collapse, path dependence, and other
8. nonlinear dynamics.
Examples and applications include
Corporate growth and stagnation,
The diffusion of new technologies,
The dynamics of infectious disease such as HIV/AIDS,
Business cycles,
Speculative bubbles,
The use and reliability of forecasts,
The design of supply chains in business and other organizations,
Service quality management,
Transportation policy and traffic congestion,
Project management and product development,
and many others.
The goal of systems thinking and system dynamics modeling is
to improve our
understanding of the ways in which an organization’s
performance is related to its
internal structure and operating policies, including those of
customers, competi-
tors, and suppliers and then to use that understanding to design
high leverage poli-
cies for success. To do so this book utilizes
Process Points that provide practical advice for the successful
application
of the tools in real organizations.
Case studies of System Dynamics in Action that present
successful
applications ranging from global warming and the war on drugs
to
reengineering the supply chain of a major computer firm,
marketing
strategy in the automobile industry, and process improvement in
9. the
petrochemicals industry.
System dynamics is not a spectator sport. Developing systems
thinking and mod-
eling skills requires the active participation of you, the reader,
via
Preface ix
Challenges. The challenges, placed throughout the text, give
you practice
with the tools and techniques presented in the book and will
stimulate your
original thinking about important real world issues. The
challenges range
from simple thought experiments to full-scale modeling
projects.
Simulation software and models. The accompanying CD-ROM
and web
site (http://www.mhhe.com/sterman) include all the models
developed in
the text along with state-of-the-art simulation software to run
them. There
are several excellent software packages designed to support
system
dynamics modeling. These include ithink, Powersim, and
Vensim. The CD
and website include the models for the text in all three software
formats.
The disk also includes fully functional versions of the ithink,
Powersim, and
Vensim software so you can run the models using any of these
packages
10. without having to purchase any additional software.
Additionally, the Instructor’s Manual and instructor’s section of
the
web site include suggested solutions for the challenges,
additional
assignments, Powerpoint files with the diagrams and figures
from the text
suitable for transparencies, suggested course sequences and
syllabi, and
other materials.
INTENDED AUDIENCE
The book can be used as a text in courses on systems thinking,
simulation model-
ing, complexity, strategic thinking, operations, and industrial
engineering, among
others. It can be used in full or half-semester courses, executive
education, and
self-study. The book also serves as a reference for managers,
engineers, consul-
tants, and others interested in developing their systems thinking
skills or using sys-
tem dynamics in their organizations.
A NOTE ON MATHEMATICS
System dynamics is grounded in control theory and the modern
theory of nonlin-
ear dynamics. There is an elegant and rigorous mathematical
foundation for the
theory and models we develop. System dynamics is also
designed to be a practical
tool that policy makers can use to help them solve the pressing
problems they con-
front in their organizations. Most managers have not studied
nonlinear differential
equations or even calculus, or have forgotten it if they did. To
11. be useful, system dy-
namics modeling must be accessible to the widest range of
students and practicing
managers without becoming a vague set of qualitative tools and
unreliable gener-
alizations. That tension is compounded by the diversity of
backgrounds within the
community of managers, students, and scholars interested in
system dynamics,
backgrounds ranging from people with no mathematics
education beyond high
school to those with doctorates in physics.
X Preface
IF YOU DON’T HAVE A STRONG MATHEMATICS
BACKGROUND,
FEAR NOT
This book presents system dynamics with a minimum of
mathematical formalism.
The goal is to develop your intuition and conceptual
understanding, without sacri-
ficing the rigor of the scientific method. You do not need
calculus or differential
equations to understand the material. Indeed, the concepts are
presented using only
text, graphs, and basic algebra. Mathematical details and
references to more ad-
vanced material are set aside in separate sections and footnotes.
Higher mathemat-
ics, though useful, is not as important as the critical thinking
skills developed here.
12. IF YOU HAVE A STRONG MATHEMATICS BACKGROUND,
FEAR NOT
Realistic and useful models are almost always of such
complexity and nonlinearity
that there are no known analytic solutions, and many of the
mathematical tools you
have studied have limited applicability. This book will help you
use your strong
technical background to develop your intuition and conceptual
understanding of
complexity and dynamics. Modeling human behavior differs
from modeling phy s-
ical systems in engineering and the sciences. We cannot put
managers up on the lab
bench and run experiments to determine their transfer function
or frequency re-
sponse. We believe all electrons follow the same laws of
physics, but we cannot
assume all people behave in the same way. Besides a solid
grounding in the mathe-
matics of dynamic systems, modeling human systems requires
us to develop our
knowledge of psychology, decision malung, and organizational
behavior. Finally,
mathematical analysis, while necessary, is far from sufficient
for successful sys-
tems thinlung and modeling. For your work to have impact in
the real world you
must learn how to develop and implement models of human
behavior in organiza-
tions, with all their ambiguity, time pressure, personalities, and
politics. Through-
out the book I have sought to illustrate how the technical tools
and mathematical
concepts you may have studied in the sciences or engineering
can be applied to the
13. messy world of the policy maker.
~
FEEDBACK
I welcome your comments, criticisms, and suggestions.
Suggestions for additional
examples, cases, theory, models, flight simulators, and so on, to
make the book
more relevant and useful to you are especially invited. I will
update the website
to incorporate user feedback and new materials. Email
comments to <[email protected]
mit .edu > .
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
This work benefited immensely from the advice, criticism, and
encouragement of
many colleagues, students, and friends. I owe an immeasurable
debt to my first
system dynamics teachers, Dana Meadows, Dennis Meadows,
and Jay Forrester,
for their integrity, high standards, and passionate commitment.
I’m particularly
indebted to the exceptional students of the MIT Sloan School of
Management.
They constantly challenge me to make the discipline of system
dynamics relevant,
Preface xi
useful, and exciting; I hope they’ve learned as much from me as
I’ve learned from
them. In addition, I thank my colleagues at the Sloan School
14. and in the system
dynamics community around the world, who helped by
providing data and exam-
ples, reviewing the draft, testing early versions in their courses,
and in countless
other ways. This group includes (but is not limited to) the
following folks and
institutions:
Tarek Abdel-Hamid (Naval Postgraduate School); David
Andersen, George
Richardson (SUNY Albany); Ed Anderson (Univ. of Texas);
Carlos Ariza, Sharon
Els, Ken Cooper, Jim Lyneis, Hank Taylor (Pugh-Roberts
Associates); George
Backus (Policy Assessment Corporation); Bent Bakken
(Norwegian Defense Re-
search Establishment); Yaman Barlas (Bogazici University,
Istanbul); Michael
Bean (Powersim Corp.); Eric Beinhocker, Damon Beyer,
Andrew Doman, Usman
Ghani, Maurice Glucksman, Paul Langley, Norman Marshall
(McKinsey and
Company); Laura Black, John Carroll, Vanessa Colella, Ernst
Diehl, Steve Ep-
pinger, Charlie Fine, Mila Getmansky, Paulo Goncalves, Janet
Gould Wilkinson,
Jim Hines, Nan Lux, Brad Morrison, Tim Nugent, Nelson
Repenning, Ed Roberts,
Scott Rockart, George Roth, Ed Schein, Peter Senge (MIT);
Allen and Jane
Boorstein; Steve Cavaleri (Central Connecticut State Univ.);
Geoff Coyle (Royal
Military College of Science, UK, retired); Brian Dangerfield
(Univ. of Salford);
Pi1 Davidsen (Univ. of Bergen); Jim Doyle, Mike Radzicki,
15. Khalid Saeed
(Worcester Polytechnic Institute); Bob Eberlein, Tom
Fiddaman, Dan Goldner,
David Peterson, Laura Peterson (Ventana Systems); David Foley
and Judy Berk;
Andy Ford (Washington State Univ.); David Ford (Texas A&M
University);
Nathan Forrester (A. T. Kearney); Rich Goldbach (Metro
Machine Corp.); Chris-
tian Haxholdt, Heather Hazard (Copenhagen Business School);
Jack Homer
(Homer Consulting); Jody House (Oregon Graduate Institute);
Bill Isaacs (Dia-
logos); Sam Israelit (Arthur Andersen); Nitin Joglekar (Boston
Univ. School
of Management); Drew Jones (Sustainability Institute);
Christian Kampmann,
Erik Mosekilde (Technical Univ. of Denmark); Daniel Kim,
Virginia Wiley
(Pegasus Communications); Craig Kirkwood (Arizona State
Univ.); Elizabeth
Krahmer Keating (Northwestern Univ.); Don Kleinmuntz (Univ.
of Illinois,
Urbana-Champaign); David Kreutzer (GKA, Inc.); Robert
Landel (Darden School
of Business, Univ. of Virginia); David Lane (London School of
Economics); Erik
Larsen (City University, London); Winston J. Ledet, Winston P.
Ledet (The Man-
ufacturing Game, Inc.); Ralph Levine (Michigan State Univ.);
Angela Lipinski
(Society for Organizational Learning); Martin GroBmann, Frank
Maier, Peter
Milling (Univ. of Mannheim, Germany); Ali Mashayekhi (Sharif
Univ. of Tech-
nology, Teheran); Nathaniel Mass (GenCorp); Paul Monus
16. (BP/Amoco), John
Morecroft, Ann van Ackere, Kim Warren (London Business
School); Erling
Moxnes (Norwegian School of Economics and Business
Administration); Rogelio
Oliva (Harvard Business School); Mark Paich (Colorado
College); Steve Peterson,
Barry Richmond (High Performance Systems); Greg Petsch
(Compaq Computer);
Nick Pudar (General Motors); Jack Pugh, Julia Pugh, Roberta
Spencer (System
Dynamics Society), JQrgen Randers (World Wildlife Fund
International); Nancy
Roberts (Leslie College); Jenny Rudolph (Boston College);
Jorge Rufat-Latre
(Strategos); Anjali Sastry, Marshall van Alstyne (University of
Michigan); Bob
Stearns; Susan Sterman; Jim Thompson (Global Prospectus,
LLC); John Voyer
xii Preface
(Univ. of Southern Maine); Lyle Wallis (Decisio, Inc.); Jim
Waters (Waters Busi-
ness Systems); Jason Wittenberg (Harvard Univ.); Eric
Wolstenholme (Leeds Busi-
ness School, UK); Pave1 Zamudio Ramirez (Monitor Company);
the Copenhagen
Business School, The International Network of Resource
Information Centers
(aka the Balaton Group), McKinsey and Company, the
Norwegian School of
Management, Pugh-Roberts Associates, the Society for
Organizational Learning,
17. the Technical University of Denmark, and, of course, the MIT
Sloan School of
Management.
Special thanks to High Performance Systems, Powersim, SA,
and Ventana
Systems-and their great people-for providing their simulation
software and
translations of the models for the CD and website.
The team at IrwidMcGraw-Hill deserves special mention for
their enthusiasm,
patience, and editorial help, particularly Scott Isenberg, Carol
Rose, Jeff Shelstad,
and Gladys True.
Cara Barber and Kelley Donovan provided important secretarial
support.
Kathy Sullivan went beyond the call of duty on library research,
data collec-
Finally, the love and support of my family have been constant
and essential.
tion, editorial changes, and graphics.
Thanks, Cindy, David, and Sarah.
Table of Contents
Preface vii
PART I PERSPECTIVE AND PROCESS 1
1 Learning in and about Complex Systems 3
18. 1.1 Introduction 3
1.1.1
1.1.2 Causes of Policy Resistance 10
1.1.3 Feedback 12
1.1.4 Process Point: The Meaning of Feedback 14
Challenge: Dynamics of Multiple-Loop Systems
Policy Resistance, the Law of Unintended Consequences,
and the Counterintuitive Behavior of Social Systems 5
14
1.2 Learning Is a Feedback Process 14
1.3 Barriers to Learning 19
1.3.1 Dynamic Complexity 21
1.3.2 Limited Information 23
1.3.3 Confounding Variables and Ambiguity 25
1.3.4 Bounded Rationality and the Misperceptions
of Feedback 26
1.3.5 Flawed Cognitive Maps 28
1.3.6 Erroneous Inferences about Dynamics 29
1.3.7 Unscientific Reasoning: Judgmental Errors
andBiases 30
Challenge: Hypothesis Testing 30
1.3.8 Defensive Routines and Interpersonal Impediments
to Learning 32
1.3.9 Implementation Failure 33
1.4.1 Improving the Learning Process: Virtues
of Virtual Worlds 34
1.4.2 Pitfalls of Virtual Worlds 35
19. 1.4.3 Why Simulation Is Essential 37
1.4 Requirements for Successful Learning in Complex Systems
33
1.5 Summary 39
xiii
xiv Contents
2 System Dynamics in Action 41
2.1
2.2
2.3
2.4
2.5
Applications of System Dynamics 41
Automobile Leasing Strategy: Gone Today, Here Tomorrow
2.2.1 Dynamic Hypothesis 44
2.2.2 Elaborating the Model 48
2.2.3 Policy Analysis 5 1
2.2.4 Impact and Follow-up 54
On Time and Under Budget: The Dynamics
of Project Management 55
2.3.1 The Claim 56
2.3.2 Initial Model Development 57
2.3.3 Dynamic Hypothesis 58
2.3.4 The Modeling Process 61
2.3.5 Continuing Impact 64
20. Playing the Maintenance Game 66
2.4.1 Dynamic Hypothesis 67
2.4.2 The Implementation Challenge 74
2.4.3 Results 76
2.4.4 Transferring the Learning: The Lima Experience 77
42
Summary: Principles for Successful Use of System Dynamics 79
3.1 The Purpose of Modeling: Managers as Organization
Designers 84
3.2 The Client and the Modeler 84
3.3 Steps of the Modeling Process 85
3.4 Modeling Is Iterative 87
3.5 Overview of the Modeling Process 89
3 The Modeling Process 83
3.5.1 Problem Articulation: The Importance of Purpose 89
3.5.2 Formulating a Dynamic Hypothesis 94
3.5.3 Formulating a Simulation Model 102
3.5.4 Testing 103
3.5.5 Policy Design and Evaluation 103
4 Structure and Behavior of Dynamic Systems 107
3.6 Summary 104
4.1
4.2
4.3
Fundamental Modes of Dynamic Behavior
4.1.1 Exponential Growth 108
21. 4.1.2 Goal Seeking 11 1
4.1.3 Oscillation 114
4.1.4 Process Point 116
Challenge: Identifying Feedback Structure
from System Behavior 117
Interactions of the Fundamental Modes
4.2.1 S-Shaped Growth 118
4.2.2 S-Shaped Growth with Overshoot 121
Challenge: Identifying the Limits to Growth
4.2.3 Overshoot and Collapse 123
Other Modes of Behavior 127
4.3.1 Stasis, or Equilibrium 127
108
11 8
121
Contents xv
4.3.2 Randomness 127
4.3.3 Chaos 129
4.4 Summary 133
PART I1 TOOLS FOR SYSTEMS THINKING 135
5 Causal Loop Diagrams 137
5.1
5.2
5.3
22. 5.4
5.5
5.6
Causal Diagram Notation 137
Guidelines for Causal Loop Diagrams
5.2.1 Causation versus Correlation 141
5.2.2 Labeling Link Polarity 142
Challenge: Assigning Link Polarities 143
5.2.3 Determining Loop Polarity 143
Challenge: Identifying Link and Loop Polarity
Challenge: Employee Motivation 147
5.2.4 Name YourLoops 148
5.2.5 Indicate Important Delays in Causal Links 150
5.2.6 Variable Names 152
5.2.7 Tips for Causal Loop Diagram Layout 153
5.2.8 Choose the Right Level ofAggregation 154
5.2.9 Don’t Put All the Loops into One Large Diagram
5.2.10 Make the Goals of Negative Loops Explicit 155
5.2.11 Distinguish between Actual
Process Point: Developing Causal Diagrams
from Interview Data 157
Challenge: Process Improvement 158
Conceptualization Case Study: Managing Your Workload
5.4.1 Problem Definition 159
5.4.2 IdentiJLing Key Variables 160
5.4.3 Developing the Reference Mode 160
5.4.4 Developing the Causal Diagrams 163
5.4.5 Limitations of the Causal Diagram 166
Challenge: Policy Analysis with Causal Diagrams
Adam Smith’s Invisible Hand and the
Feedback Structure of Markets 169
Challenge: The Oil Crises of the 1970s 172
23. Challenge: Speculative Bubbles 173
Challenge: The Thoroughbred Horse Market
5.5.1 Market Failure, Adverse Selection,
Challenge: The Medigap Death Spiral 176
Explaining Policy Resistance: Traffic Congestion
5.6.1 Mental Models of the Traffic Problem 178
5.6.2 Compensating Feedback: The Response
to Decreased Congestion 18 1
5.6.3 The Mass Transit Death Spiral 185
5.6.4 Policy Analysis: The Impact of Technology 188
5.6.5 Compensating Feedback: The Source
of Policy Resistance 189
141
145
154
and Perceived Conditions 156
159
168
174
and the Death Spiral 174
177
24. xvi Contents
Challenge: Identifying the Feedback Structure
of Policy Resistance 190
5.7 Summary 190
6.1 Stocks, Flows, and Accumulation 191
6 Stocks and Flows 191
6.1.1 Diagramming Notation for Stocks and Flows 192
6.1.2 Mathematical Representation of Stocks and Flows 193
6.1.3 The Contribution of Stocks to Dynamics 195
6.2.1 Units of Measure in Stock and Flow Networks 198
6.2.2 The Snapshot Test 199
Challenge: Identifying Stocks and Flows 201
6.2.3 Conservation of Material in
Stock and Flow Networks 201
6.2.4 State-Determined Systems 202
6.2.5 Auxiliary Variables 202
6.2.6 Stocks Change Only through Their Rates 204
6.2.7 Continuous Time and Instantaneous Flows 206
6.2.8 Continuously Divisible versus Quantized Flows 207
6.2.9 Which Modeling Approach Should You Use? 208
6.2.10 Process Point: Portraying Stocks and Flows
in Practice 209
When Should Causal Loop Diagrams Show
Stock and Flow Structure? 210
6.2 Identifying Stocks and Flows 197
6.3 Mapping Stocks and Flows 210
25. 6.3.1
Challenge: Adding Stock and Flow Structure
to Causal Diagrams 2 11
Challenge: Linking Stock and Flow Structure with Feedback
6.3.2 Aggregation in Stock and Flow Mapping 213
Challenge: Modifying Stock and Flow Maps
Challenge: Disaggregation 214
6.3.3 Guidelines for Aggregation 216
6.3.4 System Dynamics in Action:
6.3.5 Setting the Model Boundary:
6.3.6 System Dynamics in Action: Automobile Recycling 225
212
213
Modeling Large-Scale Construction Projects
“Challenging the Clouds’’ 222
2 18
6.4 Summary 229
7.1 Relationship between Stocks and Flows 232
7 Dynamics of Stocks and Flows 231
7.1.1 Static and Dynamic Equilibrium 232
7.1.2 Calculus without Mathematics 232
7.1.3 Graphical Integration 234
Challenge: Graphical Integration 239
7.1.4 Graphical Diflerentiation 239
Challenge: Graphical Differentiation 24 1
26. 7.2 System Dynamics in Action: Global Warming 241
Contents xvii
7.3 System Dynamics in Action: The War on Drugs 250
7.4 Summary 262
Dynamics of Simple Structures 263
7.3.1 The Cocaine Epidemic after 1990 258
8 Closing the Loop:
8.1
8.2
8.3
8.4
8.5
8.6
First-Order Systems 263
Positive Feedback and Exponential Growth
8.2.1 Analytic
Solution
