Hope for the best prepare for the worst
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Slides utilisés par l'économiste Peter De Keyzer (managing Partner de Growth Inc.) lors du webinaire qu'il a animé pour le Forum financier, le 26 juin 2020.
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Hope for the best prepare for the worst
- 1. Hope for the best, prepare for the worst Peter De Keyzer Chief Economist & Managing Partner
- 2. The picture looks bleak
- 3. What about the bigger picture ?
- 5. Putting the crisis in perspective
- 7. • V shaped recovery => • No damage to the supply side • No second-round crises • U shaped recovery => • Supply side damaged (bankruptcies, higher unemployment, broken business models) • No second round crises • L shaped recovery => • Supply side damaged • Second round crises (banking, eurozone, protectionism, political,…) Recovery: V, U or L ?
- 8. Impact on debt and deficit
- 10. Deluge of support measures Bron: Brueghel Think tank
- 12. Pandemics 101
- 13. Publication date: 26th January 2020 First diagnosis: we panicked much too late
- 14. We panicked much too late
- 15. A small word on infection cycles
- 16. • Recent insights from senior advisor at CEPI – Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations • Need 5 billion doses (10 billion on the safe side) – largely exceeds production capacity of the big4 (GSK, Sanofi, Pfizer, J&J) • Eg. GSK can do 750million per year • Lack of coordination on EU-level: tracking, tracing, measures, etc… • Second wave will come • Nationalistic behaviour versus need for global coordination… • Antivaxing…. 1/3 of French people have indicated they will refuse a vaccine Don’t hope for a quick vaccine
- 17. “Lets return to normal”
- 18. Some events might seem temporary… but they change the calculus forever… “Let’s return to normal”
- 19. Looking back from the year 2025…
- 20. • 1,5 meter society • Tracing apps • Loss of privacy • Bigger government • Stress on societal cohesion • Stress on mental health • … but also new business models, new ways of working, new products, new ways of catering to people’s needs. The New Normal
- 21. QUICK VACCINE UNCHANGED BEHAVIOUR NO SECOND ROUND EFFECTS Which future scenario?
- 23. 1. Expect the unexpected 2. Accelerate tech, digital, AI,… 3. Imagine the future of work and adjust 4. Resilience becomes more important than efficiency 5. Think first and be first Accelerated entry into a new normal
- 24. Quid Belgium?
- 25. Make or break § Before the crisis – bad equilibrium • Debt above 100% of GDP • Budget deficits • Insufficient reforms • Lack of political cohesion § After the crisis – 3 scenarios • The good Phoenix from the ashes Sweden in the 90’s • The bad Slow motion crash Italy since the 2000’s • The ugly Malgoverno Belgium in the 80’s § Go for investments, digitalisation, entrepreneurship, more people at work,…
- 26. Back to normal
- 28. Conclusion • Weakest countries are hit the hardest • Lack of European policy response • ECB has to do the heavy lifting • Power grab by the biggest countries in Europe • Lot of uncertainty regarding virus outlook
- 29. Q & A
- 30. Growth Inc_ PETER DE KEYZER Managing Partner peter@growth-inc.be ☎ +32 497 76 93 93 @PeterDeKeyzer