Immediately restricting agricultural groundwater pumping in Kern County to halt overdraft would result in significant economic costs without advance planning and infrastructure development. It could reduce irrigated acreage by 185,200 acres, lower annual farm sales by $1.27 billion, and eliminate 12,400 agricultural jobs. The total estimated annual economic impact on Kern County includes losses of $1.4 billion in labor income and 24,300 jobs across the agricultural, food processing, and supporting industries. High economic costs could be avoided through advance preparation that develops alternative water sources and allows farms to adapt.