GLP White Paper - The Garden of Good and Evil Travel Management in the Year 2020 v3 0

The Garden of Good and Evil:
Travel Management in the Year 2020
The Future of Travel
GLP Designation Team
July 2012

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Table of Contents
Prologue ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 3
Context – What is the Global Leadership Professional® (GLP) Program? ….………..………………. 3
The Journey …………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………3
Wharton Advisor – Joe Ryan …….…………………………………………………………………..……………………. 3
Executive Summary ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 4
Introduction …………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 4
Solution Details ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 5
STEEP Analysis ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 5
Scenario Blueprint ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 6
Two-by-Two Scenario Matrix …..…………………………………………………………………..……………………. 7
Scenario Snapshots ……………………………………………………………………………………..……………………. 9
Monitoring the Key Uncertainties ………………………………………………………………………………………11
Key Success Factors by Scenario ………………………………………………………………………………………. 13
Strategic Initiatives …………………………………………………………………………………………………………... 14
Summary ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 16
Appendix A – Sub-group STEEP Forces ………………………………………………………………………..…….…17
Social and Ecological Trends …………………………………………………………………………………………… 17
Social and Ecological Uncertainties…………………………………………………………………………….…… 17
Technological Trends ………………………………………………………………………………………………..……… 19
Technological Uncertainties……………………………………………………………………………………….……… 19
Economic and Political Trends ……………………………………………………………………………………..… 20

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Economic and Political Uncertainties…………………………………………………………………………….… 20
Appendix B - Focus Group Forces ……………………………………………………………………………………….. 22
Social/Cultural Trends ……………………………………………………………………………………….…………….. 22
Technological Trends ……………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 23
Ecological Trends ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 23
Economic and Political Trends ………………………………………………………………………………………..… 24
Social/Cultural Uncertainties ……………………………………………………………………………………………. 25
Technological Uncertainties ……………………………………………………………………………………………...26
Ecological Uncertainties …………………………………………………………………………………………………… 27
Economic/Political Uncertainties ……………………………………………………………………….…………….. 28
Appendix C - Scenario Details ……….……………………………………………………………………………………. 29
Scenario A Details …….……………………………………………………………………………..………………………. 29
Scenario B Details ….…………………………………………………………………………………………………….…… 30
Scenario C Details ….…………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 31
Scenario D Details … ……………………………………………………………………………………………………….… 32
Appendix D - GBTA Foundation Lighting Poll Summary Results …………………………………………… 33
Appendix E – Strategic Options Portfolio ……………………………………………………………………………. 34
No Regret Moves ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 34
Small Hedges and Exploratory Options …………………………………………………………………………….. 34
Big Bets ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..36
Appendix F - The Future of Travel 2011 GLP Designation Team …………………………………………… 37
Appendix G - References and Recommended Reading ….…………………………..……………………….. 38

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Prologue
Context - What is the Global Leadership Professional® (GLP) Program?
In continuingitsmissionof providingunparallelededucational opportunitiesforthe businesstravel
professional,the GBTA FoundationhaspartneredwithThe WhartonSchool atthe Universityof
Pennsylvania,todevelopthe Global LeadershipProfessional® (GLP) Program.
The GLP programis the onlycourse for the travel managementprofessional offeredatthe master's
level.
The focus of the Global LeadershipProfessional®programis strategic.Itismore than a travel
managementprogram;itusesan interdisciplinaryapproachthataddressesboththe opportunitiesand
challengesof conductingbusinessintoday'senvironment.The programaimsto provide individualswith
the keysto create value forcorporationsandcustomers,andto inspire professional achievement.
The program presentsabroad overviewof all majorbusinessdisciplineswhichaimstoprovide
individualswiththe skillsto:
 Create value forcorporationsand customersalike
 Inspire professionalachievementintravel industryexecutives
 Developopportunitiestoanalyze industrytrends
 Identifynewsolutionstoemergingproblemsinarapidlychangingindustry
Participantsof the GLP Program are the beneficiariesof interchange withindustrypeers,aswell as
renownedWhartonSchool faculty.The breadthanddepthof the facultyexpertise offersparticipantsin
the program an intensiveinsightintocurrentbusinessissuesinleadership,finance,marketing,and
management.
The Journey
Both the sessioncontentyouhave justexperienced,andthe workthat follows,isthe resultof 24
monthsof collaborationamong11 virtual strangers;now friends. These co-collaboratorscame from
supplierandbuyerroles,fromdisparate industriesandverticals,yetsharedlike-mindedaspirationsto
challenge themselvestobringthisstudytoyou today.
Wharton Advisor – Joe Ryan
Joe Ryan is the President and Founder of True North Advisory Group and he teaches
extensively in Wharton's executive education programs.He alsotaughtin Wharton’sEMBA
program inPhiladelphiaandSan Francisco;at INSEADin Fontainebleau;andat SisanUniversityin
Bangkok.He has servedasAcademicDirectorfor numerousexecutive programsandhastaughtin
executiveprogramsforAXA,Microsoft,Degussa,InBev,SecuritiesIndustryAssociation,Councilof
Insurance AgentsandBrokers,Aventis,ReedSmith,UnitedHealthCare,MorganStanley,Fujitsu,BAE,
SocietyforHuman Resource Management,Cigna,HP,andotherclients.He workswithexecutivesasan
advisoronstrategyand change managementassignments.He isafrequentspeakeratindustry

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conferences.Hisconsultingandresearchinterestsinclude strategyimplementation,strategicalliances,
service management,bestpracticesinchange management,leadershipdevelopment,andthe designof
customizedexecutive education.He iscurrentlywritingabookon executingbusinessstrategiesand
change managementpractices - BeyondSmartTalk - basedon hislongtermworkingrelationshipasan
advisorto fourCEO’scurrentlyleadinggrowthandstrategicchange initiativesinthe banking,
informationtechnology,membershipservices,andtravel businesses.
Joe has heldmanagementpositionsinstrategicplanning,businessdevelopmentandorganization
developmentwithGE,GTE, and ARAMARK.He hasworkedas a consultantinboththe KepnerTregoe
StrategyGroup andat the Wharton Center forAppliedResearch.He hasworkedwithclientsin
insurance,financialservices,the securitiesindustry,travel,telecommunications,software,R&D,andthe
twolargestmembershiporganizationsinthe UnitedStates.He holdsaPh.D.fromthe Universityof
Pennsylvania,completedgraduate businessstudiesatThe Wharton School,attendedthe GECrotonville
executiveeducationprogram,andattendedthe LeadershipinProfessional ServicesProgramatthe
Harvard BusinessSchool.
Executive Summary
Travel management in the year 2020 could utilize innovative technologies that bias travel
preferences via gamification and track travelers and their travel transactions through Universal
Traveler IDs (UTIDs). Changing workforce demographics, the demise of GDSs and new
developments in virtual technologies will drive content fragmentation.
To prepare, travel professionals should utilize Scenario Planning, identify and reward flexible
suppliers, and develop strategic relationships across their organizations. In addition, enhancing
negotiation, supply chain management and data analytics skills will be critical for a successful
career in travel management. Finally, travel professionals may want to place a large bet on the
future of virtual technology by following the latest technological advances from the leading
companies.
Introduction
Today, many uncertainties face the Travel Manager and their travel programs. For example,
how will technology change the traveler’s experience of service and hospitality? Will biofuel
impact travel decisions in the future? How will the rise of China affect global trade? What will
be the effects of iGens entering the workforce? What will the travel management profession
look like in the year 2020?
Uncertainties such as these and the constant changes experienced by the industry provide a
unique opportunity for corporate travel managers to heighten visibility and reshape the future
of the travel management profession. The GLP designation team (“team”) decided to address
the future of business travel via Scenario Planning exercises in which multiple future travel

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industry scenarios were analyzed and used as the basis for formulating strategies for success in
these future worlds.
Solution Details
Travel Managers have relied on "gut instinct," or at best, created short-term forecasts based on
extrapolating trends and making slight adjustments. Scenario Planning is a robust tool used by
futurists for industries experiencing significant change in an attempt to describe possibilities.
The team started with a STEEP analysis1 to ensure that a wide variety of trends outside the
travel industry were considered. The results were used to construct four possible scenarios
that could emerge by the end of 2020. A list of key success factors was compiled and used to
develop a strategic options portfolio that includes a broad set of initiatives travel professionals
may use to prepare for the future.
STEEP Analysis
The team formed sub-groups2 to work on a STEEP analysis designed to research and identify
current and future high impact forces within five external factors that could have a significant
effect on the travel industry through the year 2020. Each sub-group independently developed a
list of trends and uncertainties3, which the team combined and ranked in terms of probability.
Trends are high impact forces that are highly predictable, and serve as the basis for strategy
development. The team identified the following top trends affecting the travel industry:
1. Technology is the umbrella trend driving the change in travel manager's responsibilities,
accelerating globalization, and aiding in evolution of workplace culture
2. Travelers are driving technological advancements via real-time feedback through
numerous communication mediums
3. Shift in Financial Market Power to BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, China) countries
1 A framework used to gauge the impactof the external environment in times of uncertainty, coveringfive
elements: Social-Cultural,Technological,Ecological,Economic and Political/Regulatory,thatmake up the name of
the tool
2 Initially,four sub-groups were formed for research,which was eventually summarized into three sub-groups:
Social-cultural and Ecological;Technology;and Economic and Political-regulatory
3 See Appendix A

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In contrast, uncertainties are high impact forces with low predictability, requiring monitoring
and prepared responses. The team identified the following top uncertainties that may impact
the travel industry over the next ten years:
1. How will technology redefine business travel?
2. How will the behavior and expectations of the workforce reshape managed travel?
3. With more and more technology, how will the role of the Travel Manager evolve?
4. How will biofuel affect travel decisions in the future?
5. Will Middle East ideologies shift towards fundamentalist extremism or democracy?
6. How does the rise of China affect the way we do business?
During the integration of the lists, the team concluded that the trends and uncertainties related
to the micro, or individual side, especially technology, would be the primary driving forces of
change in the industry, relegating the more macro focused trends and uncertainties, such as
economic and political forces, to secondary, supporting roles. Therefore, the macro political
uncertainties listed above were not a factor in the scenario blueprint.
In order to validate the selections and rankings of the team’s trends and uncertainties, two
focus groups4 consisting of travel industry colleagues were conducted for the team by the GBTA
Foundation. The focus groups identified 47 trends and 63 uncertainties that largely overlapped
the team’s selections. Some of the trends and uncertainties combined aspects of two STEEP
categories, such as technology used by the new generation of travelers, which the team
predicted would be inevitable as the sub-group lists were being combined.
Scenario Blueprint
The team developed a scenario blueprint from the top uncertainties identified in the STEEP
analysis, and defined high level descriptions for four different scenarios, denoted as A, B, C and
D, for each uncertainty. Consequently, the top two uncertainties would be used to create the 2
x 2 scenario matrix; the blueprint helps ensure that the top pairs of uncertainties produce four
mutually exclusive scenarios.
4 The focus groups included a total of 13 travel professionals,and were conducted on 16 Jan 2012 prior to the
GBTA Government Relations Committee meeting in Washington DC, and on 26 Jan 2012 prior to the Chapter
Presidents’Council meeting in Minneapolis.

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The Garden of Good and Evil: Travel Management in the Year 2020
No Top Uncertainties Scenario A Scenario B Scenario C Scenario D
1 Technology
redefinesbusiness
travel
Ubiquitous -
increasesneed
to travel
New virtual
technologies -
decreasesneed
to travel
Ubiquitous -
increasesneed
to travel
New virtual
technologies -
decreasesneed
to travel
2 Workforce
reshapesmanaged
travel
Controlled -
virtual fences
emerge
Controlled -
virtual fences
emerge
Mayhem-
travelersutilize
multiple
booking
channels,
suppliers
Mayhem-
employeesutilize
multiple virtual
technology
companies
3 Travel Manager
role evolves
Strategic-
influences
buyingbehavior
Strategic- relies
on VT to control
spend
Transactional -
reliesondata
aggregatorsto
capture spend
Transactional -
TM functionno
longerexistsin
currentform
4 Biofuel effecton
travel decisions
Inexpensive-
increases
supplier
competition
More Expensive
than Fossil
Fuels- doesnot
facilitate more
travel
Inexpensive-
increases
supplier
competition
More Expensive
than Fossil Fuels-
doesnot
facilitate more
travel
Two-by-Two Scenario Matrix
A two-by-two scenario matrix was constructed using the top two uncertainties from the
scenario blueprint, one technology related, and the other from the social-cultural category. The
polar boundaries for each uncertainty define half of the scenario matrix. The horizontal axis is
defined by future technology, such as holographic imaging, that will either significantly reduce
the demand for travel, or expand the need for face-to-face meetings, and hence, significantly
increase the demand for travel. The uncertainty on the vertical axis is the changes to travel
programs driven by travelers, where travel managers will rely on virtual fences to manage and
control travel at one extreme. At the other extreme is total mayhem, where travel managers
and organizations have few tools available for visibility and management of travel spend and
struggle to enforce any compliance by their travelers.

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The Garden of Good and Evil:
Travel Management in the Year 2020
U1: Technology Influences the Demand for Travel
TechnologyReducesthe NeedtoTravel IncreasedNeedforFace toFace Meetings
U2:TravelersDriveProgramChanges
VirtualFences
The Matrix Imagine
Likelihood: 30% Likelihood: 40%
TotalMayhem
Titanic Alice in Wonderland
Likelihood: 10% Likelihood: 20%

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Scenario Snapshots
Next, scenario snapshots describing in detail what the world would look like at December 31,
2020 were created for scenarios A, B, C and D starting from the high level descriptions in the
scenario blueprint. Scenario A is a future where virtual technology reduces travel and virtual
fences are installed by travel managers to control travel and improve visibility. Scenario B is a
future with the same virtual fences installed by travel managers to manage the significantly
increasing demand for travel. Scenario C is a bleak future for travel managers, where travel is
increasing rapidly and there are no means for travel managers to control or know what travel is
taking place. And finally, scenario D also has virtual technology drastically reducing the need to
travel while travel managers look for ways to manage the limited scope of travel.
To develop these scenario snapshots, the team identified the primary drivers of each potential
future and predicted what news headlines would appear along the way and then synthesized
the drivers and headlines into detailed narratives for each of the scenarios5.
Memorable movie or song titles to describe each scenario were assigned for easy reference.
The Matrix was chosen to represent Scenario A, where travelers could see no barriers and are
free to do as they pleased, while Travel Managers maintain control and visibility through
“virtual fences.” Imagine was selected for Scenario B to capture the high level of satisfaction
with travel and travel management achieved by both the travelers and the travel managers in
this future. Titanic was designated to represent scenario C, the future where the demand for
travel has been largely replaced by virtual technology and Travel Managers have no visibility or
control over the small amount of travel that does take place. Finally, Alice in Wonderland was
used to describe scenario D, an upside down world where content is totally fragmented, global
demand for travel is higher and Travel Managers have little control or visibility.
The team determined its own likelihood probabilities for each scenario based upon its
assessment of the trends identified in the STEEP analysis. Scenario B, Imagine, was
optimistically assigned the highest probability at 40%, while scenario C, Titanic, was determined
to have the lowest probability at 10%. The other two scenarios were rated in between
scenarios B and C, with The Matrix receiving the higher probability (30%) over Alice in
Wonderland (20%). An online survey of corporate buyers was conducted by the GBTA
Foundation6 to help validate the team’s estimated likelihoods. The results of the survey
validated the relative estimates the team assigned to each of the scenarios.
5 See Appendix C for complete details of each scenario
6 See Appendix D for survey summary

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Scenario A - “The Matrix”
Likelihood: 30%
Travel Managers embrace Universal Traveler ID (UTID) technology and negotiate new corporate
loyalty programs with suppliers. New virtual technologies bias travel preferences via
gamification. Virtual Technology companies aggressively compete for visibility pushing out
supplier advertising. As virtual technologies replace business travel and enhance lifestyles,
company cultures shift. Buyers realize significant savings as technologies mature and become
more affordable. As a result, virtual technology becomes the primary way of doing business
forcing suppliers to consolidate. Travel Managers have new ways of controlling spend and
revenue streams. New service providers aggregate all business travel data via UTID residing in a
universal business travel mall.
Scenario B - “Imagine”
Likelihood: 40%
Technological innovations reduce the cost and time of business travel, dramatically improving
traveler experience. New apps reduce language and cultural barriers. As a result, the demand
for face-to-face meetings increases as giant corporations drive globalization. Cheap biofuel
options increase dynamic supplier competition. Meanwhile, Travel Managers influence buying
behavior through new ubiquitous UTID technology and gamification. New aggregating
technology enhancements maximize data mining opportunities, achieving comprehensive duty
of care and crisis management solutions. New cost of trip dynamics enhances supplier leverage.
Scenario C - “Titanic”
Likelihood: 10%
Changing workforce demographics drives an increase in development and adoption of virtual
technologies such as holographic imaging. This dramatically reduces corporate travel. With
corporate travelers accustomed to buying through Social Media, the need for corporate
contracting is eliminated. As a result, procurement, TMC, and travel management functions as
they exist today become irrelevant, with suppliers reduced to a minimum.
Scenario D - “Alice in Wonderland”
Likelihood: 20%
Financial power shifts to BRIC countries resulting in increased globalization. Companies react by
rallying for an Open Skies Agreement that becomes effective in 2019. To meet increased
demand for travel, hotel, air and car companies release full content to consumer sites. GDS
companies are forced out of business and social media takes over corporate travel purchasing.

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Monitoring the Key Uncertainties
The team next identified signals to monitor, the internal and external sources to monitor, and
the recommended monitoring periods. By monitoring these weak signals, travel professionals
can dynamically adjust their view of which scenario is likely to emerge and act accordingly.
Force or Key
Uncertainty
What are the
Signals or
Indicators?
What Internal
Sources could be
used to track?
What External Sources
could be used to track?
What is the
recommended
monitoring
frequency?
Cheap Biofuel Greater
replacementof
fossil fuelsby
biofuels
Increaseduse of
biofuelsin
operations,if
applicable
Increase in
transportationoptions
usingbiofuels;
Sustainable Aviation
Fuel Usersgroup activity
At leastquarterly
Consumarization Travelerdriven
products/services/a
ppsfor travel;
Google andApple
innovations
Appearance of
travelerdriven
products/services/a
pps;travelersin
charge of preferred
suppliers
Increase insupplier
offersdirectlytargeting
travelers;development
of corporate travel apps;
increasedtechnology
turnover
Ongoing
Corporate
Nation State
Greatercorporate
influenceover
worldwide events
Participationin
dealswith
governmentsor
transnational
organizations
Dealscut by large
companieswith
governments
At leastquarterly
Direct Connect Appearance/develo
pmentof GDS
bypasssolutions;
content
fragmentation
Directconnects
appearin other
purchasingareas
Increase indirect
connectionoptions
offeredbysuppliers
Ongoing/quarterly
Economic
Instability
More countries
nearingdefault
Declining
revenue/sales, RiFs,
cost cutting;shifting
focusto new
markets
Drastic changesin
commodity/interest
rates;increasedspeed
to marketinroute
changes
At leastquarterly
Gamification Increase in
gamificationacross
industry
Adoptionof
gamificationin
otherareas; positive
reinforcementfor
policycompliance
Promotionsbasedon
gamificationappear;
industryevents
advocate gamification
as bestpractice
At leastquarterly
Globalization Increasingglobal
trade/activity;
governance changes
inforeignmarkets
Openingnew
foreignoffices;
increasing
international travel
Increase inWTO
activity,international
trade treaties;open
skiesagreement
Ongoing

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Quality of Life
Improvement
Demandfor
increased leisure
time/worklife
balance
Change intime off,
remote work
policies
New workarrangements
drivenbyqualityof life
initiatives;traveler
tweetratings/reviews
drive changes
At leastquarterly
Social Media Increaseduse
amongsttravelers
and programs
Numberof travelers
usingfortravel;shift
inorganizational
approach to social
media
numberof programs
usingto aidtravel
management
Ongoing
Supplier
Consolidation
Increasedmarket
emphasisonsize
and scale
M&A activityto
increase size
Purchase/merger/bankr
uptcynews;industry
compression/route
optimization
Ongoing
Supplier
Negotiations
Newapproachesto
negotiations;e.g.,
revenue auctions
Developed
strategiesusedfor
othercategories;
mandate for
transparentsupplier
reporting
Developedstrategies
usedforother
categories
At leastquarterly
Universal
Traveler ID
(UTID)
Global privacy
agreements/treaties
Legal approval of
privacyissuesin
agreements
Testingof chip/other
technologyforuniversal
ID; standardizationof
governmentissued
ID/supplieracceptance
At leastquarterly
Virtual Fences Appearance of data
aggregatorsand
technologies
Policychangesin
travel andother
areas
Technologyavailable to
capture bookingdata
fromall sources
At leastquarterly
Virtual
Technology
Newvirtual
technology
companiesand
virtual technologies
come to market
Expansionof use,
new VTCpurchases
Increasednumbersof
virtual technology
companiesappear
At leastquarterly
Workforce
Demographics
Percentage shifts
amongst
generationsinwork
force
HR employment
profile report;
personal
observation;
strategictalent
management
Government/global
organizationreportson
workforce
demographics;industry
whitepapersdedicated
to demographics;media
recognitionfor"Best
Placesto Work"
At leastquarterly

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Key Success Factors by Scenarios
Based on the scenarios, the team compiled a list of Key Success Factors (KSFs), which are
characteristics of successful Travel Managers in each scenario. The KSFs were also grouped by
management discipline: Change, Traveler, Crisis and Financial.
Key Success Factors
Imagine The Matrix
Alice in
Wonderland Titanic
ChangeManagement
Scenario PlanningSkills X X X X
Adaptable - Flexible X X X X
Cross-Functional X X X X
Negotiation/InfluencingSkills X X X
SupplyChain Management X X X
Data Analytics X X X
Project ManagementSkills X X X
Enhanced TechnologySkills X X
Knowledge ofVirtual Technology X X
Data Archive and Retrieval X X
Traveler
Management
Manage Across Cultures X X
CustomerService/ Troubleshooting X X
Traveler Centric X X
Crisis
Management
Cyber SecurityKnowledge X
CrisisManagement X
Risk Mitigation X X
Financial
Management
Internal Audit X X
Cost Control X
Invoicing/AccountsPayable X

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Strategic Initiatives
Strategic initiatives related to each KSF were developed and combined into a Strategic Options
Portfolio7. Travel professionals should monitor the applicable sources detailed for the plan and
adjust their view of the future accordingly
The travel professional should review and select initiatives from the Strategic Options Portfolio
to assist them. The team classified the KSFs into four distinct management disciplines: change
management, traveler management, crisis management and financial management.
From the strategic initiatives related to the KSFs, the team compiled a strategic options
portfolio for the travel manager to select from and apply based on which scenario travel
manager identifies as emerging. The team’s top recommendations designed to prepare the
travel managers for any of the possible future worlds derived from the 2 X 2 matrix include “no
regret” moves, small hedges or exploratory options, and big bets.
“No Regret” Moves are the most robust KSFs as they may be used in all scenarios, and
therefore should be undertaken in all projected futures.
1. Scenario Planning
Scenario planning looks at multiple, mutually exclusive future worlds, developed from current
forces using a time horizon of at least ten years, giving Travel Managers a set of robust
scenarios to monitor and plan for. To help the Travel Manager prepare for the future, a
strategic options portfolio is created from Key Success Factors identified for one or more of the
scenarios providing specific actions the Travel Manager can implement.
2. Adaptable – Flexible
Select suppliers who pioneer innovative solutions customizable to the organization’s travelers.
Understand continuous changes in virtual and mobile technologies. Leverage the organization’s
buyer-supplier relationships outside of travel to get the best value in contract negotiations.
3. Cross-functional
Possess holistic view of organization initiatives and develop strategic relationships across the
enterprise. Develop cross-functional teams to help learn and select the best virtual and mobile
technology options for travelers.
7 See appendix E for the complete Strategic Options Portfolio

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Small Hedges and Exploratory Options should be made to capture upside in some scenarios and
minimize losses in other scenarios.
1. Negotiation/Influencing Skills
Understand the Total Value Proposition and articulate it to each stakeholder. Negotiate for
achievable requirements and long term contract value, ensuring successful contract
performance. Learn the limitations and complexities of global pricing to help you consolidate
and leverage total global spend.
2. Supply Chain Management
Utilize data analytics to optimally forecast travel spend of the program in helping manage
supplier expectations and ultimately strengthen the supply chain.
3. Data Analytics
Investigate third-party data analysis capabilities, and align with suppliers that have effective
reporting which could include financial and spend forecasting. Adopt ideas and best practices
from other departments on how to mine and cleanse data for a clear vision of purchasing
patterns.
Big Bets should be placed on scenarios that will result in large payoffs if the correct scenario
unfolds; however, it may result in large losses if the specific scenario does not emerge.
1. Enhance Technology Skills
Add discovery as a discipline within the department, either designating a team member to
research and report on changes within the technology space or holistically rewarding
individuals that bring early awareness of new technologies likely to impact your organization’s
ability to remain agile. Provide environment for travelers to learn about technologies projected
to affect their travel experience and compliance to travel policy.
2. Knowledge of Virtual Technology
Understand your organization's position on virtual technology and consequently its effects on
travel policy and traveler expectations. Investigate virtual technology options appropriate to
your organization's size and business style. Propose adopting virtual technology that enhances
internal and external customer relationships without a threat of complete travel elimination
and determine how your department can help facilitate adoption and training of operating this
virtual technology.

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3. Customer Service/Troubleshooting
Optimize virtual assistance tools for routine customer issues. Streamline research and response
processes.
Summary
Travel professionals can utilize the tools and implement select recommendations provided in
this whitepaper to prepare both themselves and their programs for the scenarios developed for
the future of business travel. At a minimum, travel professionals will want to implement the
three recommended “No Regret” initiatives now, as they are designed to prepare the travel
professional for success in all four future worlds. One or two small hedges or exploratory
options should also be considered, as well as a big bet, in case one of the less likely scenarios
emerges or a Black Swan8 event occurs.
Monitoring the signals and adjusting one’s prediction of the emerging scenario is important in
selecting the appropriate strategic initiatives. Current trends almost certainly will not lead to
the future in a straight line, and may be bumped off course or totally obliterated by events not
currently on the radar. Rather than rely on a couple of endpoints on ten year trend lines, travel
professionals should consider the base of a three dimensional cone as the realm of possible
future worlds for which they need to prepare. Travel professionals can create a customized
Strategic Options Portfolio based upon their situation, and their current and evolving view of
the future, from the portfolio presented in this whitepaper.
Although there is no guarantee that any of the future worlds formulated by the team will
emerge by the end of 2020, travel professionals that are willing to consider, monitor and
prepare for the possibility of any or all of them developing, and are willing modify their views
and make the necessary adjustments along the way, will be well ahead of those that continue
to base their preparation and view of the future on the current state of the world.
8 In his book, The Black Swan, NassimNicholas Taleb defined a Black Swan as outlier event with extreme impact
and retrospective predictability.

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Appendix A – STEEP Forces
Social and Ecological Trends
Top Trends Impact / Where & Why
T1: Due to rising population,climate
change, and environmental
degradation,natural disastersare
increasingin frequency. The economic
effectofdisasters on businessesand
countries.
Climate change effectsfromEl Nino/LaNina,Glaciers/SeaIce,the
Gulf Stream, Arctic Fires,SeaLevel Rise,VolcanicEruptions,Tropical
Storms/Hurricanes,HeatWaves,DroughtsandFloodswill provoke a
humanitariancrisisthatwill requiremilitaryandgovernment
responses.
Natural disasters,whethertheyare hurricanes,earthquakes,
tsunamis,droughtsorfloods,are all factorsthat can affectthe
operationsof businessesworldwideandimpacta country’seconomy.
There are several factorsthataffecta country’svulnerabilityto
natural disasters:itsgeographicsize,the type of disaster,the
strengthandstructure of itseconomy,andprevailingsocioeconomic
conditions.
T2: Very little taxationof carbon is
presentin the world. A large and
growing numberof economists,policy
makers and concernedcitizensregard a
carbon tax as essential for combating
the climate crisis.
Rightnow,airlinesaroundthe worldhave ralliedbehindavoluntary
goal by the International AirTransportAssociationtocutaviation
emissionsinhalf by2050. But it isentirelyvoluntary - the EU plan,
clumsyandunilateral asitis,is the onlyrule outthere actively
pushingairlinestochange.
T3: Biofuel and Alternative Energy-
Risingprice of oil and limitedsupply
Alternativetojetfuel due tocontinuingrise in jetfuel prices. Will help
dissolve monopolisticpricingforoil supplygiants.Worldwide spread,
startingfromEU movingto the US.
Worldpowerscontinue tofightforoil control,bringing instabilityto
international relationships.USwar inIraq; US continuouspush to
increase sanctionsonIran;unrestinLibya (all of these placeshave
active oil rigs).ChinaislookingtostandbehindRussiatobalance out
US as a worldpowerandalsoto tap intooil resourcesinKazakhstan.
Social and Ecological Uncertainties
Top Uncertainties Potential Impact/ Define a Range
U1: Duty of care: identifyingand
locating travelersin the midst of a
disaster.
Stricterpolicieswill be implementedandenforcedbycompanieswith
theirtravelingpopulation.Trainingforhighriskdestinationsand
knowingwhere togointhe case of a disasterandnew/improved

- 18 -
Communicationwith travelers
dependingonthe severityofa disaster;
i.e.,satellite interruption.
technologywillboostbusinesstravel.
Withthe introductionof ubiquitous connectivityandRFIDtechnology
(see Technologypredictions) communicationwithtravelersaffected
by a disasterwill be easier.If these technologiesare notaffordable
and attainable,companieswill still strugglewithcommunication.
U2: Financial healthof suppliers
affectedby a disaster.
If a numberof suppliersinthe same industry,suchas airlines, declare
bankruptcyor fold,itwouldreduce competitionandavailability.To
recoverfromany disasters,supplierswilllikelyraise pricesinorderto
rebuildtheirinfrastructure. If the numberof suppliersdecreases
dramatically,companieswillhave lessoptionsandtherefore less
negotiationpowertokeeppricesdown.Thiswouldforce companies
to lookforalternative waystosave;e.g., worldwide
teleconferencing,local hiringonly,reducedbenefits.
U3: Carbon Tax The E.U. law requiringall flightsinandoutof Europe to pay fortheir
global-warmingemissionssatpoorlywiththe restof the world. This
spat overcarbon feescouldleadtoa global trade war.A modest
carbon tax - at around$25 per ton - wouldbe a straightforwardway
to cut aviationemissions.The tax wouldraise ticketprices twoto
fourpercent,while emissionswouldfall by five totenpercent.
Slightlyfewerpeople will fly,butmostof the gainswouldcome from
airlinesfindingmore efficientroutesandsendingtheirolder,dirtier
aircraft intoearlyretirement.
U4: Continuingfundingfor Bio Fuel If companiesslow downthe support forbiofuel development,the oil
companieswill continue todictate Oil marketprice forthe next ten
yearsand beyond.Thiswill triggercontinuousrise inpricesforall
othergoodsand services,resultinginacceleratedinflationin
countriesthatdo notproduce theirownoil supply.
U5: Availabilityof Biofuel worldwide,
rate of adoption
The rate of adoptionof biofuelisinterdependentwithadvancements
intransportationtechnologyandincreasingavailabilityof vehicles
(cars, trains,planes) thatare able torun on biofuel insteadof regular
Gas. The availabilityof BioFuel worldwide alsodependson
governmentsupportandpossible subsidyprogramsfor biofuel users
(car companies) toencourage andhelpexpedite biofuel adoption.
U6: Oil price decrease in competition
with biofuel
If oil pricesdecrease inresponse tocompetitionfrom biofuelitwill
completelychange the Worldpowerbalance.The US,Russiaand China
wouldnothave as much incentive tocompete forcontrol of the oil rigs
and consequentlywouldnotprovide asmucheconomicandpolitical
supportto those countrieswhere oil isbeingextracted.

- 19 -
Technological Trends
T1: Access to abundant, low-cost,high
power computingwhich will radically
accelerate a range of efficiencies.
Workforce adept at technology.
Mobile appsare predictedtotransformthe industryworldwide.The
impactis the reductionof face-toface contactat airportsand
throughoutthe travel experience. Mobileservicerepswill replace the
customerservice experience.Movingintothe informationage,
requiringmore advancededucationandanaging workforce will be
impacted.
T2: SupplyChains, processes,and
technologyintegrationwill be
streamlined.Resultingincost savings,
and other efficiencies,reducing
dependence onhuman labor.
An agile productionmodelwill continue toadvance supplychains.
Companiesneedtobuildonthe strengthsof the knowledge,
experience andskillsof theirworkers. Impact,lessreliantonhuman
labor.Again,economiesare movingintothe knowledge and
informationage.Educationwillbe keyto the relevance of the
workers. The U.S. isimpactedbya global andevermore educated
workforce globally.The competitionforjobsexpandsbeyond
borders.
T3: Increasedimportance of work/life
balance.
Demographicspaintapicture of a workforce insearchof flexibility.A
Merrill Lynchsurveyindicated16 percentof the babyboomer
workforce islookingforpart-time work,and42 percentwill onlytake
jobsthat will allow themperiodsoff forleisure.Impact:companies
will needtoinvestinprocessesthatallow thisorwill risklosinga
talentedworkforce.
Technological Uncertainties
U1: Future role of technology Will technologysuchasvideoconferencingand otheradvances
replace the needformosttravel or will technologysorevolutionize
the industrythatthe experience willbe transformedintoamuch
more pleasurable experience andincrease asaresult?
U2: How will contentdistribution
withinthe travel industrychange and
what will be the newbusinessmodels?
Will the GDS’sbe replaced?Will someone fromoutside the travel
industrycome inand create a much simplerwaytosearchand book
travel purchases?Will the GDS’sevolve andcontinue tobe amajor
playerincontentdistribution?
U3: As travelers drive more and more
purchasing decisions,whatwill be the
Will managedtravel be necessaryinthe future?TripItProisalready
beenmarketedasa wayto get all the data and eliminatethe need

- 20 -
impact on traditional managed travel
programs?
for a managedtravel program.Or will the industryevolve and
reinventitself andbe muchmore neededbecauseof all the
uncertaintiesandaddedcomplicationsof technology?
U4: Will the overall cost of travel
decrease with breakthroughsin
biofuelstechnologyandother
technologies?
Will technologydecrease the costof travel byaddingefficiencies,
new productsand solutions,orwill the price of travel increase?
U5: What will be the impact on older
workers who are not as comfortable
with technologyadvancements?
Will workerswhoare not as comfortable withtechnologybe left
behindorwill there continue tobe a viable role fortheminthe work
place?
U6: How will the humanizationof
technologychange/improve the overall
travel experience?
Travel currentlyis notmuch funand customersare not treatedvery
well;e.g., the airlines.Will the humanizationof technologyenable
companiestohave more actionable dataontheircustomersand
therefore change the overall experience forthe better?
Economic and Political Trends
T1: BRIC countriesmovingto
overtake developedcountriesand
assume global economic
leadership
Chinaispoisedtoassume worldeconomicleadershipwithinthe nextten
years,and use theireconomicpowertoassertgreaterpolitical influence
on a global basis.AlthoughIndia,RussiaandBrazil trail China,theycanalso
pass the developednationsinthe future andincrease boththeireconomic
and political influence onthe worldstage.
T2: Governments/Central Banks/
NGOscommittedto ensure
financial market liquidity
The meltdownof financial marketsin2008 and the current Euro crisishave
demonstratedgovernments’andfinancialregulators’resolve tomaintain
orderlymarketsbyeasingcreditandbailingoutkeyentities,whichis
positive forthe economy;however,the tradeoff isthatcountriesand
certaincompaniesbecome “toolarge tofail”withpotential negative
implicationsforthe global economyinthe future.
T3: Populistuprisingsagainst
incumbentgovernments
Widespreadfeelingsof despair anddisenfranchisementincountrieswith
repressive regimesorstagnanteconomieswill leadtoleadershipchanges
inboth democraticallyelectedandauthoritarianregimes.

- 21 -
Economic and Political Uncertainties
U1: Health of world financial
markets
Robustfinancial marketswillfacilitate increasingtrade andbusinesstravel;
global recession/depressionwill limitcredit,commerce andbusiness
travel.
U2: China’s economytanks At some pointChina’seconomywill slow,the questioniswillitleveloff
gradually,orwill itbecome adangerousbubble andfall precipitouslywhen
it finallybursts.Eitherscenariowill impacttravel to/fromChina,aswell as
any travel relatedtodestinationsthatsupplyorbuyfromChina.
U3: Political collapse of the
Eurozone
Will the fiscal problemsof some countriesleadtothe disintegrationof the
Eurozone anda returnto individual states,makingtravel more difficult
than itis currently,orwill a bail-outpreservethe Eurozone?
U4: Activitiesby new terrorist
groups
Newterroristgroupscouldappearanywhere inthe world,withno
permanentbase,andinstigate terroristactivityagainstnew targetswith
greaterfrequency,orthe war onterror could decimate the ranksof
existingorganizations,keepingthemincheckandseverelyreducingthe
amountof terroristactivity.
U5: Will Middle East ideologies
shifttowards fundamentalist
extremismor towards
democracy?
If most of the countrieswhere populistuprisingshave changedregimes
move towardsdemocracy,global trade expandsandnew marketswill
open,increasingbusinesstravel;amove towardsfundamentalextremism
will limittrade andperhapsleadtoan increase interroristactivitiesthat
couldnegativelyimpactbusinesstravel.
U6: Legislationaffectingtraveler
mobility
Governmentsandtrading blocspursuingtheirownagendasmayengage in
the equivalentof trade killingtariff warsthatlimitthe free flowof
travelersbetweencountriesortrading blocs;onthe otherhand,
coordinatedeffortssimilartobilateraltreatiesreducingoreliminating
tariffscouldmake the free flow of travel easier,boostingtrade andthe
global economy.

- 22 -
Appendix B – Focus Group Forces
Social/Cultural Trends
Top Trends – Social/Cultural
T1: More people workingremotelyfromhome –isthisgreener,make iteasierto work,measure productivity
T2: DifferencesinUSworkculturesvs.othercultures(willingnessforpeople totravel onpersonal time,
durationof trips,call centerhours,time zone differences)
T3: Generational differencesandapproachto work(workhours,amountof work theyare willingtodo,etc.)
T4: Changesinflexibilityregardingtravelforyoungergenerations
T5: Youngergenerationscommunicationisdifferent(youthusedtotexting,youthare usedto“participating”
online andremotely, communicateinshorter,online infoispermanent,theyhave difficultyspeakingon
phone/in-person)
T6: More global workforcesneedtoadapttoworkingwitheachother(accessto global workers)
T7: Where are newtravel managers?What will happentothe industry?(directsmore sothanhoteliers/
suppliers) Will theycome fromdifferentareas(procurement)
T8: Educational challengesforyoungentrantstotravel industry.How will theylearnabouttravel
management(onthe jobvs.formal education)
T9: Employee pressuresoncompaniestogogreen,some due to youngerworkers
T10: Freestyle workplace,workingfromanywhere,the wayUSdressesversusrestof worldandimpacton
doingbusiness(maybemove backtowardsmore formal dress?)
T11: Income disparitybetweenthe havesandhave nots
T12: Importance of travel to youngergenerationsincreases(wantingtoincrease lengthof trip)
T13: Impact of cost of education(replacingbeingable tobuya home),Resurgence of technical education
because of jobs

- 23 -
Technological Trends
Top Trends - Technological
T1: Smart devicesreplace laptops
T2: More mobile appsthatare smarterand revolve aroundcustomerexperience,easiertofindinfo
T3: Movementfromsmall devicestolargerdevice withmore power (phonestoiPad)
T4: Cloudcomputing
T5: Companieswillexperience more breachesof security
T6: Travel decreasesdue toremote meetings
T7: Sharedresourceswill becomemore commonplace (Zipcar,fractional jet,travel managementasa shared
resource)
T8: Leadershipfromthe bottom-up–juniorassociatescanshare infowithhigher-ups,OccupyWall Streetas
example of bottomupmade possiblebyInternet
T9: Technological warfare,cybersecurity,espionage
T10: Replacementof GDS,perhapsit won’tbe necessary,where iscontentgoing
T11: How technologyimpactsabilitytomanage
T12: No sense of control of corporate communications;lackof first-handknowledge of changesbefore you
hearit inelevator– Social Mediaand powerof many
Ecological Trends
Top Trends - Ecological
T1: Disease andmajorhealthoutbreaks
T2: Impactecologicallyof travel tonewlocations (Antarctica)
T3: Green/ sustainabilityandimpactontravel (watermanagement,emissions,carbon,washingsheetsin
hotels,etc.)
T4: Fossil fuelsandwillalternativesbe developed
T5: More and largernatural disasters - more people are travellingtomore locations,soimpactisgreater
T6: Water scarcity/ watermanagement,value of water
T7: Developmentof space programandaccess to resourcesoff-planet(Europe,Russia,China)
T8: Internal alignment –not all companiesare focusingonsustainability,rollingoutprogramsinternally
T9: Populationgrowthinthirdworldcountriesandthe impactof olderpersons continuingtowork,live,etc.

- 24 -
Economic/Political Trends
Top Trends – Economic and Political/Regulatory
T1: Financial MarketInstability –middle east,Europe /Global economyandinterconnectedeconomies
T2: Rise of global tourism – countriesthathave nottraditionallytraveledwill doso
T3: Rise of the middle classinthirdworld,collapse of middle classindevelopedworld
T4: Oil – Iran, dependence uponoil,costof oil andimpacton economicstrength
T5: Accessto natural resourcesandraw material causesinstabilitybotheconomicallyandpolitically
T6: Change inpolitical leadershipinUSand inMiddle East
T7: Powerof protests,Middle East,OccupyWall Street – impacton tourism
T8: Regional currencies –Middle East(basedonprimary resources),Asia
T9: Downsizingtravel managementfunction,doingmore withless
T10: Political involvementinschemestosetstandardsforsocial /cultural / ecological –more government
regulationsandcompliance issues
T11: Regional /Global conflict(Israel –Iran)
T12: Dynamicpolitical /geographical borders,will theycontinue tochange?(Macro/ Micro)
T13: Impact of terrorism

- 25 -
Social/Cultural Uncertainties
Top Uncertainties– Social/Cultural
U1: What impactwill the youngergenerationshave onhow travel ismanaged?
U2: Will the youngerpeople wanttoor needtotravel as much?
U3: Will youngertravelerschange theirbehaviorsof bookinginordertoget recommendationsontravel?
Can theyrelyononline reviews?
U4: What doesface to face meanto youngertravelers?Doeslookingatscreensufficeandresultinless
travel?
U5: How doesthe way youngpeople communicate change the waywe dobusiness?
U6: Will we needtotrain youngerpeople how tocommunicate?
U7: How will youngpeoplenetworkif theydon’tknow how tocommunicate face toface?
U8: Social networkingamongyoungerpeople. Will thatimpacthow youconnectand network?
U9: How do youdo businessacrosscultures?Englishusedtobe standardwayof communicating.Will other
languagesreplace English(Chinese)?
U10: Will workershave todomore withlessor will the pendulumswingback?
U11: Howdoessense of entitlementculture impacttravel?(youngtravelersfeelingentitled,Europeans
takingvacation)
U12: Youngergenerationsfeelingentitled. Will loyaltyprogramsandincentiveshave animpacton younger
people?
U13: Blendingof meetingplannerswithtravelmanagers.
U14: What educationisnecessarytocreate the travelermanagersof the future?
U15: Will travel managersneedmore strategicvisioninthe future?

- 26 -
Technological Uncertainties
Top Uncertainties- Technological
U1: Will personal interactionbe replacedbytechnology?
U2: Technologyistakingoverthe processesthatare humanbased.What impactwill nothavingpeople
doingthe workhave on jobsand customerservice?(peoplestillwantthe humantouchwhenthingsgo
wrong)
U3: How will we manage the proliferationof technology?
U4: How do youdifferentiateproductswhen itisautomated?Whatisrole of productmanager with
automation?
U5: How will travel managers“manage travel”whencompaniesallow travelerstobookthroughany
channel.
U6: Responsibilityfortravel butlackof control overit. How will travel managershandlethis?
U7: Technologycantrack everythingsowill itreplace travel manager?
U8: Youngertravelersare more technologicallyorientedwhile oldertravelersare not.Will there be less
touch neededasyoungerworkersgetolder?Orwill the pendulumswingbackthe otherwaywhere more
touch isneededagain?
U9: Will there be more customerservice thatisautomatedwithalive virtual agent?
U10: Will relationshipsstillmatterinthe future withtechnology?
U11: Howwill bookingand expense managementinthe eraof mobile apps?
U12: What impactwill procurementhave onthe travel managerof the future?
U13: Howwill globalizationof travel interfacewithtechnology?Will we adoptwhatothercountriesare
goingor vice versa?How will technology“talk”acrossborders?
U14: Will technologyreplace face toface?Will youngerworkersseelessimportance of face toface?
U15: Airportsecuritychangesdue tochangesinhow technologycanhelpidentifythreats.Clear,trusted
traveler, bodyscanners,etc.
U16: Cantechnologyhelpidentifycitizensof the worldwhocantravel withoutsecurity?
U17: Howwill large sizesof aircraftaffecttravel (sicknesses, hijackings)?Andhow will standinginaircraft
impacttravel?
U18: Howwill travelersgettheirinformationinthe future?People are ignoringemail now andnotice letters
and regularmail.

- 27 -
Ecological Uncertainties
Top Uncertainties- Ecological
U1: Will alternative technologiesbecomemore mainstreamandchange things(ex. hybrids)?
U2: Will biofuelschange the landscape?Cost,manufacturing,etc.?
U3: What will impactof newenergysourceshave onenvironment(unintendedconsequences),example
corn?
U4: Whendoescompanyneedtotake responsibilitytooffsetcarbon footprint?
U5: Impact onhotelsof changesinbusinessdue togreen?(showers,bedcleaning,etc.)
U6: How will climate change affectbusinessesandtravel?(e.g.,Icelandvolcano,earthquakes, tsunamis)
U7: Doesbeinggreenmake a difference on corporate level?Orisitup to individual travelerstobe conscious
aboutbeinggreen?
U8: Doesbeinggreenasa supplierreallymake adifference inselectionbybuyers?
U9: Europe is more advancedinCSR.How will thatimpactthe rest of the world?On the otherhand,China
and Indiaare veryfar behindinCSR.How will theyimpact the environment?
U10: Will peopletravel lessdue toenvironmental concerns?
U11: Will more workersworkfromhome tohelpenvironment?
U12: Howwill anincrease intravel inChinaaffectenvironment?
U13: What will youngergenerationsdototake care of worldastheygrow up?They’ve beentaughttobe
greenandwhat impactwill thishave astheygrow up?

- 28 -
Economic/Political Uncertainties
Top Uncertainties– Economic and Political/Regulatory
U1: What role will governmentplayintravel:rental cars,FAA,TrustedTraveler
U2: Is NextGenevergoingtogetfunded?How longdoesittake andwhat doesitmeanfor travelers?
U3: What companieswill merge intermsof buyersandsuppliers?Fewersuppliers,will itincreasecostdue
to lesscompetition?
U4: How will the Middle Eastuprisingsaffectfuture of global travel andeconomicscene?Egypt,Iraq,etc.
U5: How will growthinAsiaimpactUS economyandtravel?
U6: How will drugcartelsaffecttravel andtourisminMexicoandCentral America?Will thatspreadtoUS?
How doesitimpactsecurityinhotelsspecifically?
U7: How will USelectionaffectstance of governmentwithrespecttotravel?Governmentrhetoric.
U8: How will state of economyaffectjobsintravel?How will globalizationof travel impacttravelersand
howwill thatlook?
U9: Whenwill the nextdownturnoccurandwill thathappenjustwhenthe hotel ratesrecoverfromlast
recession?
U10: Will the economyreturntoa buyer’smarketagain?
U11: Will there be anyotherglobal criseseitherintermsof terrorism, oil spike,Eurodebt,etc.thatimpacts
travel.
U12: What will highunemploymentmeantotravel andthe economy?
U13: Companiesare cashrichright now,whatis role of travel managersindoingmore withless?
U14: What isthe impactof openinguptravel toCuba whentheydon’thave the infrastructure tosupportit?
What opportunitiesare there forhotels?
U15: Increase of jobopportunitiesinothercountriesandthe rise of populationsinothercountries.
U16: How doesthe rise of Chinaaffectthe waywe do business?
U17: Howdoesthe risingcost of labor aroundthe worldimpactthe economy?

- 29 -
Appendix C – Scenario Details
ScenarioA
Scenario Snapshot: "Virtual Technology Replaces
Travel with Virtual Fences"
Travel Managers embrace Universal Traveler ID
(UTID) technology and negotiate new Corporate
Loyalty programs with suppliers. New Virtual
Technologies bias travel preferences via
gamification. Virtual Technology (VT) companies
aggressively compete for visibility pushing out
supplier advertising. As Virtual Technologies
replace business travel and enhance lifestyles,
company cultures shift. Buyers realize significant
savings as technologies mature and become more
affordable. As a result, VT becomes the primary
way of doing business forcing suppliers to
consolidate. Travel Managers have new ways of
controlling spend and revenue streams. New
service providers aggregate all business travel data
via UTID residing in a universal business travel
mall.
Drivers: Headlines:
1. New era of “Pay To Play” revenue streams
emerge
1. Travel Managers Demand Universal Traveler
ID Technology
2. Virtual technologies become the primary
medium for doing business, causing suppliers to
further consolidate
2. Travel Managers Embrace Gamification to
Drive Virtual Technologies Use

- 30 -
Scenario B
Scenario Snapshot: "Increased Travel with Virtual
Fences"
Technological innovations reduce the cost and time
of business travel, dramatically improving traveler
experience. New apps reduce language and cultural
barriers. As a result, the demand for face-to-face
meetings increases as giant corporations drive
globalization. Cheap biofuel options increase
dynamic supplier competition. Meanwhile, Travel
Managers influence buying behavior through new
ubiquitous UTID technology and gamification. New
aggregating technology enhancements maximize
data mining opportunities, achieving comprehensive
duty of care and crisis management solutions. New
cost of trip dynamics enhances supplier leverage.
Drivers: Headlines:
1. Businesstravel remainsthe mostcosteffectivewayto
do business
1. New AircraftCompressesTime: NewYork -
Londonin Two Hours
2. Virtual technologiestooexpensive toadoptworldwide
2. Technological BreakthroughMakes Biofuel
Cheap!
3. Worldwide standardof livingimproves 3. EconomiesExplode YieldingNew Travel
Demand
4. Company giantstake overglobalization
4. UTID Technology Reduces Time atAirport

- 31 -
Scenario C
Scenario Snapshot: "Virtual Technology Reduces
Need to Travel and Total Mayhem"
Changing workforce demographics drives an
increase in development and adoption of virtual
technologies such as holographic imaging. This
dramatically reduces corporate travel. With
corporate travelers accustomed to buying through
Social Media, the need for corporate contracting is
eliminated. As a result, procurement, TMC, and
travel management functions as they exist today
become irrelevant, with suppliers reduced to a
minimum.
Drivers: Headlines:
1. Changing demographics in the workforce shifts face-
to-face business to virtual
1. Growing Holographic Technology
Shrinks Business Travel
2. In economically unstable and shock prone world in
which governments weaken and dangerous
technologies thrive
2. Airlines Consolidation Drastically
Hikes Up Air Fares Worldwide
3. Global Cyber Attack Halts All Travel

- 32 -
Scenario D
Scenario Snapshot: "Increased Travel with Total
Mayhem"
Financial power shifts to BRICK counties resulting
in increased Globalization. Companies react by
rallying for Open Skies Agreement that becomes
effective in 2019. To meet increased demand for
travel, hotel, air and car companies release full
content to Consumer sites. GDS companies are
forced out of business and Social Media takes
over corporate travel purchasing.
Drivers: Headlines:
1. Shiftineconomicpowersforces globalization 1. 2019: Global OpenSkiesAgreementReached
2. Directconnectsdisruptmanagedtravel 2. Corporate Travel BuyersShifttoConsumersites
3. Managedtravel unable tokeepupwithtraveler
demands
3. SuppliersReleaseFull Contentto ConsumerSites
4. Companiesreportincreasedtravel asglobalization
drivesincrementalface toface demand
4. Social MediadisruptsCorporate Travel Purchasing

- 33 -
Appendix D – GBTA FoundationLighting Poll Summary Results9
Scenario Min Value Max Value Average Value Standard Deviation
Titanic 0.00 50.00 14.02 13.00
Alice in Wonderland 0.00 85.00 20.81 16.13
The Rock 0.00 100.00 27.94 20.80
It’s a Wonderful Life 0.00 100.00 37.23 21.77
9 This onlinesurvey of GBTA Direct Members in the United States was conducted February 28th through the March
5th, 2012. In total, 1,488 members were invited to participatein this study via email;of those, 280 participated in
the survey for a responserate of 19%.

- 34 -
Appendix E – Strategic Options Portfolio
No Regret Moves
Key Success Factors Strategic Initiatives
ChangeManagement
Scenario PlanningSkills Travel Managers relyon"gut instinct,"orat best,create short-
termforecastsbasedon extrapolatingtrendsandmaking
adjustments.Scenario planninglooksatmultiple,mutually
exclusivefuture worlds,developedfromcurrentforcesusinga
time horizonof at leasttenyears,givingTravel Managersa setof
robustscenariostomonitorand planfor.To helpthe Travel
Managers prepare forthe future,a strategicoptionsportfoliois
createdfromKeySuccessFactors identifiedforone ormore of
the scenariosprovidingspecificactionsthe Travel Managercan
implement
Adaptable - Flexible Selectsupplierswhopioneerinnovative solutions customizable to
your company’stravelers.Understandcontinuouschangesin
virtual andmobile technologies.Leverage yourcompany’sbuyer-
supplierrelationshipsoutsideof travel togetthe bestvalue in
contract negotiations.
Cross-Functional Possessholisticview of companyinitiativesanddevelopstrategic
relationshipsacrossenterprise. Developcross-functional teams
to helpyoulearnandselectthe bestvirtual andmobile
technologyoptionsforyourtravelers.
Small Hedges and Exploratory Options
Change
Management
Negotiation/InfluencingSkills UnderstandyourTotal Value Propositionandarticulate ittoeach
stakeholder. Negotiateforachievable requirementsandlong
termcontract value,ensuringsuccessful contractperformance.
Learn the limitationsandcomplexitiesof global pricingtohelp
youconsolidate andleverage yourtotal global spend.

- 35 -
SupplyChain Management Utilize dataanalyticstooptimallyforecasttravel spendof your
program inhelpingyoumanage supplierexpectationsand
ultimatelystrengthenyoursupplychain.
Data Analytics Investigate third-partydataanalysiscapabilities,alignwith
suppliersthathave effectivereportingwhichcouldinclude
financial andspendforecasting.Adoptideasandbestpractices
fromotherdepartmentsonhow to mine andcleanse datafor
clearvisionof purchasingpatterns.
Project ManagementSkills Understandfull cycle of projectmanagementfromconceptionto
implementation,andthe toolscritical toprojectmanagement
success.
Data Archive and Retrieval Create effective knowledge managementanddataarchive
system, ensuringrobustback-upsandease of retrieval.
TravelerManagement
Manage Across Cultures Gain practical knowledgeof global travel managementand
governingeconomiesthroughseminarsandconferencesoutside
of the US. Buildrelationshipswithin-countrytravel expertsin
nationswhere yourcompanyhaslocal offices.
Traveler Centric Designyourtravel programaround the travelerandmanage
travelers'expectationsthrougheducationonhow policy
compliance enablessuppliertravel perks.Providetravelerswitha
forumto share theirfeedbackandhelpyouidentifyemerging
trends.
CrisisManagement
Cyber SecurityKnowledge Work withSecuritydepartmenttoaddressvirtual technology
security.Make sure youare aware how yourinternal securityand
contingencyplanningteamsguardcyberproprietaryinformation.
CrisisManagement Participate indevelopmentof organization'scrisismanagement
plan.Educate travelersoncrisispreparedness.
Risk Mitigation Designcrisismanagementguidelinescompatible and
complimentarywithotherdepartmentswithinyourcompany.
FinancialManagement
Internal Audit Designrobustinternal auditprocessandprovide guidelineson
keepingdocumentationtrail. Conductregular auditstoensure
policycompliance. Create exceptionrequestproceduresforcing
travelerstojustifygoingoutof policyanddeliverthemthrough
reportingindicatingpolicycompliance trends
Invoicing/AccountsPayable Normalize ancillary feesandcard paymentdatafrommultiple
sourcesintoone comprehensive report.

- 36 -
Big Bets
ChangeManagement
Enhanced TechnologySkills AddDiscoveryasa discipline withinyourdepartment,either
designatingateammembertoresearchandreport onchanges
withintechnologyspace orholisticallyrewardingindividualsthat
bringearlyawarenessof new technologieslikelytoimpactyour
organization’s abilitytoremainagile.Provideenvironmentfor
travelerstolearnabouttechnologiesprojectedtoaffecttheir
travel experience andcompliance totravel policy.
Knowledge ofVirtual
Technology
Understandyourcompany'spositionon virtual technology and
consequentlyitseffectsontravel policyandtraveler
expectations.Investigatevirtual technology optionsappropriate
to yourorganization'ssize andbusinessstyle.Propose adopting
virtual technology thatenhancesinternal andexternal customer
relationshipswithoutathreatof complete travel eliminationand
determine how yourdepartmentcanhelpfacilitateadoptionand
trainingof operatingthis virtual technology.
Traveler
Management
CustomerService/
Troubleshooting
Optimize virtual assistance toolsforroutinecustomerissues.
Streamline researchandresponse processes.
Financial
Management
Cost Control Utilize virtual fence technologyandgamificationto control spend.
Engage supplierstoserve asconsultantstoprovide dataanalytics
that aidscontract optimization. Discussyourfinancial outlook
withsuppliersasaway to supportyourbudgetaryprojections.
Communicate demandforbest-in-industrycostmanagement
reporting.

- 37 -
Appendix F – The Future of Travel 2011 GLPDesignation Team
Dianne Bradley, GLP, Manager of Travel & Fleet Service, Tokyo Electron
Tanya Brown, GLP, Vice President, BCD Travel
Peter Browne, GLP, President/Owner, Carey Limousine of Wisconsin
Lynn C. Brunner, CCTE, GLP, Director Travel & Meetings, HCA Healthcare
Jeannie Eisenhart, CCTE, GLP, Manager, Corporate Travel & Meetings, Crowley Maritime Corporation
Angela Francisco, GLP, Global Travel Director, Constellation Brands
Coreen L. Marcroft, GLP, Senior Manager, Aetna Travel and Meeting Solutions
Anna Samogray, CTE, GLP, Global Sales Account Executive, Delta Air Lines
Jami Stapleman, CCTE, GLP, Global Travel and Meeting Services, Estee Lauder
Mark F. Stone, CCTE, GLP, Senior Manager, Travel Services, The Washington Post Company
Rick K. Wakida, CTE, CCTE, GLP, Global Travel Manager, Atmel Corporation

- 38 -
Appendix G – References andRecommendedReading
Bryan, Lowell and Farrell, Diana. 2008. “Leading through uncertainty.” The McKinsey Quarterly.
Duarte, Nancy. 2010. “resonate”
Global Business Network, “Why Scenarios?” http://www.gbn.com/about/scenario_planning.php
Schoemaker, Paul J.H. 2011. “Scenario Planning Virtual Classroom.” Wharton Executive Education.
Taleb, NassimNicholas. 2010. “The Black Swan.”
Wilkinson, Lawrence. 1995. “How to Build Scenarios.” Wired, Special Edition.

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