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Introduction
• This is the Gera Pune Residential Realty Report for January ’15 to
June ‘15. The last report was released in January ‘15.
• A total of 3,067 live projects were tracked after a comprehensive
listing exercise covering a radius of 30 km from the Pune City
Center ( Shivaji nagar)
• The methodology for collecting information is based on proprietary
interviewing techniques developed in-house
© Gera Developments Pvt. Ltd. 2
Key Metrics Tracked
• Price per sqft. – This is the quoted price per sqft.
• Total Units Launched - This is the Total Number of Units that have been
Launched ( Sold + Unsold )
• Supply – Unsold units
• Newly Launched – These are Projects that are Newly Launched
• % Units Sold Since Launched - This is the sellout ratio
• Offtake – The number of units sold between two tracks
• Stage of Construction – Early, Mid, End & Ready
• Location – Micromarket the project is situated in (roughly 140 micro markets )
* All data is collected building wise . If the project has 5 buildings then data is collected for each
building and then aggregated.
© Gera Developments Pvt. Ltd. 3
Executive Summary
• Residential market under stress
• Regulatory changes will add to the challenges
• Challenging & competitive times lead to the emergence of a better
product, more customer centricity, greater customer focus on delivery
track records
• Slow down in price appreciation from 12.47% for June ’12 – June ’13
to 10.03% from June ’13 – June ’14 and now down to 3.33% for
June ’14 – June ’15
• The half yearly growth rate has also slowed down from 3.04% during
the period June ’14 – Dec ’14 down to 0.27% for the period
January ’15 - June ’15
© Gera Developments Pvt. Ltd. 4
Six Monthly Price Movements
6.46%
5.50%
8.29%
6.07% 6.01%
7.66%
2.16%
3.08%
0.28%
3475
3666 3970
4211
4464
4806
4910
5061
5075
0.00%
1.00%
2.00%
3.00%
4.00%
5.00%
6.00%
7.00%
8.00%
9.00%
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
5500
Jan'11 -
Jun 11
Jul'11 -
Dec'11
Jan'12 -
Jun'12
Jul'12 -
Dec'12
Jan'13 -
Jun'13
Jul'13 -
Dec'13
Jan'14 -
Jun'14
Jul'14 -
Dec'14
Jan'15 -
Jun'15
%Change
AveragePrice(Rspsf)
6 month % change Average Price
© Gera Developments Pvt. Ltd. 5
Overall Supply
• The past12 months has seen a significant increase of 14.36% in the
gross inventory from 245,639 (June ’14) to 280,913 (June ’15)
units
• The unsold stock (inventory with developers for sale) has shown a
steep jump of 36.85% in the same period from 66,350 (June ’14) to
90,799 (June ’15) units
© Gera Developments Pvt. Ltd. 6
Overall Supply Situation (Dec ‘12 – Jun ‘15)
75.05%
74.49%
73.66%
72.99%
72.06%
67.68%
24.95%
25.51%
26.34%
27.01%
27.94%
32.32%
1 8 1 3
2 2 7 3 2 3 3 5
2 7 6 1
2 6 8 3
3 0 6 7
Dec '12 Jun '13 Dec '13 Jun '14 Dec '14 Jun '15
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
TotalResidentialUnits
Sold Stock Unsold Stock No of Projects
165650
201464 210094
245639
280913
240432
© Gera Developments Pvt. Ltd. 7
90,799
67,18166,350
55,337
51,389
41,329
Unsold Stock By Segment
• The Budget Category (where prices presently are below Rs.4,247 psf)
has seen an increase of 125% from 18,019 unsold units to 40,814
unsold units.
• The next highest increase is the Value Category (current prices
between Rs.4,248 & Rs.5,309 psf) with an increase of 75% from 14,184
units to 24,768 units.
• The Luxury Segment has the next highest increase in unsold inventory
at 65% from 2,629 units unsold rising to 4,325 units.
• The Premium and Premium Plus category have relatively low
increases at 30% & 22% respectively.
© Gera Developments Pvt. Ltd. 8
Unsold Stock By Segment
18109
20949
24945
27003
40814
14184 14477
18607 17852
24768
11277 11905 12259 11949
14623
5526 5997 6829
7900
6751
2629 2356
4043
2910
4325
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
. Jun- 13 Dec-13 Jun-14 Dec-14 Jun-15
UnsoldResidentialUnits
Budget Value Premium PremiumPlus Luxury
© Gera Developments Pvt. Ltd. 9
Value of Unsold Inventory (in Rs Cr) & Unsold
Area (in Cr Sqft)
• The gross value of the unsold inventory stands at Rs.48,526 crores.
• Opportunity for the state government to garner nearly Rs.3000
crores by way of stamp duty, LBT & VAT.
© Gera Developments Pvt. Ltd. 10
Value of Unsold Inventory (in Rs Cr) & Unsold
Area (in Cr Sqft)
21542
27400
31760
39085 39697
48526
4.47
5.49
5.96
7.08 7.11
9.10
0.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
10.00
12.00
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
50000
55000
60000
Dec '12 Jun '13 Dec '13 Jun '14 Dec '14 Jun '15
UnsoldAreainCrSqft
Value(inCr)
Value ( in Cr) Unsold area (in Cr Sqft)
© Gera Developments Pvt. Ltd. 11
Fresh Supply Launched (PMC vs Non PMC)
• Only 24.55% of the stock added between January ’15 to June ’15 is
within PMC limits indicating that most of the incremental stock is
added outside the Pune Municipal Corporation limits.
• Indicates the growth of the city outward.
• Will lead to declining revenues by way of development charges and
premiums for the PMC.
© Gera Developments Pvt. Ltd. 12
(Top 20 micromarkets with the Fresh Supply
Launched Jan'15 to Jun'15)
5981
5282
4140
3491
3241
3126
2709
2337
2200
2032
1864
1806
1805
1802
1675
1444
1348
1270
1236
1184
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
Bhosari…
Dehu/Gahunje/Ki…
Wagholi
Lavle…
Kanhe/Somatne…
Alandi/Alandi…
Undri
Kondhwa/Pisoli/Y…
Chakan/Chimbli
Wakad
Anand…
Bavdhan
NaviSangvi/Old…
Ambegaon
Hinjewadi
Narhe
Balewadi
Loni…
Dhayari
Fursungi/Uruli…
© Gera Developments Pvt. Ltd. 13
Fresh supply launched (PMC vs Non PMC)
43457
51746
40935
60066
46826
63998
13934
15222 16703 18036
13483 15709
32.06%
29.42%
40.80%
30.03%
28.79%
24.55%
20.00%
25.00%
30.00%
35.00%
40.00%
45.00%
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
Dec '12 Jun '13 Dec '13 Jun '14 Dec '14 Jun '15
Pune ( PMC + Non PMC) PMC % PMC to Pune
© Gera Developments Pvt. Ltd. 14
Top 10 Micromarkets with the Highest Price
Gains in the last 2 years
13.67%
39.91%
29.81%
25.90%
22.68%
20.59%
18.57%
18.27%
17.92%
17.51%
17.14%
0.00%
5.00%
10.00%
15.00%
20.00%
25.00%
30.00%
35.00%
40.00%
45.00%
AllMarkets
Aranyeshwar/Balaji
Nagar/Bibvewadi/Dhan
kawadi/Padmavati/S…
Akurdi/Nigdi/Nigdi
Pradhikaran
Erandwane/Karve
Road/Karvenagar/Koth
rud
Manjari
Fursungi/UruliDevachi
BoatClub
Road/Tadiwala
Road/Koregaon…
Market
Yard/Lullanagar/Salisb
uryPark/Mukund…
Warje
Katraj/KhedShivapur
Chinchwad/Dange
Chowk/Thergaon
© Gera Developments Pvt. Ltd. 15
Bottom 10 Micromarkets with the Lowest
Price Gains in the last 2 years
13.67%
1.02%
1.78%
3.74%
6.60%
6.90%
6.97%
7.55%
8.23%
8.71%
-5.00%
5.00%
15.00%
25.00%
35.00%
45.00%
AllMarkets
City(Centre)
Bakori/Bolhai/Shirsatwa
di
Bhosari
Pradhikaran/Chikhali/…
Ghorpadi(SopanBaug)
Fatima
Nagar/Wanowrie/Salu…
KondhaweDhawade
/Shivane/UttamNagar
Dhanori/Lohegaon
Narhe
VimanNagar/Yerawada
BanerPashanLink
Road/Pashan/Sus/Su…
© Gera Developments Pvt. Ltd. 16
Conclusion
• Big picture shows a challenging scenario
• The market has expanded in terms of supply and at the same time,
while sales numbers have dropped, they continue to happen
• Prices will not see any significant correction unless something drastic
happens
• Regulatory impact will further push prices up when the time is right
(ReRA, MHA)
• Time is right to buy a home
• Govt. should focus on generating revenue by lowering tax rates for
faster sales, increased momentum & higher GDP
© Gera Developments Pvt. Ltd. 17

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Gera pune residential realty report july 2015 revised

  • 1.
  • 2. Introduction • This is the Gera Pune Residential Realty Report for January ’15 to June ‘15. The last report was released in January ‘15. • A total of 3,067 live projects were tracked after a comprehensive listing exercise covering a radius of 30 km from the Pune City Center ( Shivaji nagar) • The methodology for collecting information is based on proprietary interviewing techniques developed in-house © Gera Developments Pvt. Ltd. 2
  • 3. Key Metrics Tracked • Price per sqft. – This is the quoted price per sqft. • Total Units Launched - This is the Total Number of Units that have been Launched ( Sold + Unsold ) • Supply – Unsold units • Newly Launched – These are Projects that are Newly Launched • % Units Sold Since Launched - This is the sellout ratio • Offtake – The number of units sold between two tracks • Stage of Construction – Early, Mid, End & Ready • Location – Micromarket the project is situated in (roughly 140 micro markets ) * All data is collected building wise . If the project has 5 buildings then data is collected for each building and then aggregated. © Gera Developments Pvt. Ltd. 3
  • 4. Executive Summary • Residential market under stress • Regulatory changes will add to the challenges • Challenging & competitive times lead to the emergence of a better product, more customer centricity, greater customer focus on delivery track records • Slow down in price appreciation from 12.47% for June ’12 – June ’13 to 10.03% from June ’13 – June ’14 and now down to 3.33% for June ’14 – June ’15 • The half yearly growth rate has also slowed down from 3.04% during the period June ’14 – Dec ’14 down to 0.27% for the period January ’15 - June ’15 © Gera Developments Pvt. Ltd. 4
  • 5. Six Monthly Price Movements 6.46% 5.50% 8.29% 6.07% 6.01% 7.66% 2.16% 3.08% 0.28% 3475 3666 3970 4211 4464 4806 4910 5061 5075 0.00% 1.00% 2.00% 3.00% 4.00% 5.00% 6.00% 7.00% 8.00% 9.00% 3000 3500 4000 4500 5000 5500 Jan'11 - Jun 11 Jul'11 - Dec'11 Jan'12 - Jun'12 Jul'12 - Dec'12 Jan'13 - Jun'13 Jul'13 - Dec'13 Jan'14 - Jun'14 Jul'14 - Dec'14 Jan'15 - Jun'15 %Change AveragePrice(Rspsf) 6 month % change Average Price © Gera Developments Pvt. Ltd. 5
  • 6. Overall Supply • The past12 months has seen a significant increase of 14.36% in the gross inventory from 245,639 (June ’14) to 280,913 (June ’15) units • The unsold stock (inventory with developers for sale) has shown a steep jump of 36.85% in the same period from 66,350 (June ’14) to 90,799 (June ’15) units © Gera Developments Pvt. Ltd. 6
  • 7. Overall Supply Situation (Dec ‘12 – Jun ‘15) 75.05% 74.49% 73.66% 72.99% 72.06% 67.68% 24.95% 25.51% 26.34% 27.01% 27.94% 32.32% 1 8 1 3 2 2 7 3 2 3 3 5 2 7 6 1 2 6 8 3 3 0 6 7 Dec '12 Jun '13 Dec '13 Jun '14 Dec '14 Jun '15 0 50000 100000 150000 200000 250000 300000 350000 TotalResidentialUnits Sold Stock Unsold Stock No of Projects 165650 201464 210094 245639 280913 240432 © Gera Developments Pvt. Ltd. 7 90,799 67,18166,350 55,337 51,389 41,329
  • 8. Unsold Stock By Segment • The Budget Category (where prices presently are below Rs.4,247 psf) has seen an increase of 125% from 18,019 unsold units to 40,814 unsold units. • The next highest increase is the Value Category (current prices between Rs.4,248 & Rs.5,309 psf) with an increase of 75% from 14,184 units to 24,768 units. • The Luxury Segment has the next highest increase in unsold inventory at 65% from 2,629 units unsold rising to 4,325 units. • The Premium and Premium Plus category have relatively low increases at 30% & 22% respectively. © Gera Developments Pvt. Ltd. 8
  • 9. Unsold Stock By Segment 18109 20949 24945 27003 40814 14184 14477 18607 17852 24768 11277 11905 12259 11949 14623 5526 5997 6829 7900 6751 2629 2356 4043 2910 4325 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 45000 . Jun- 13 Dec-13 Jun-14 Dec-14 Jun-15 UnsoldResidentialUnits Budget Value Premium PremiumPlus Luxury © Gera Developments Pvt. Ltd. 9
  • 10. Value of Unsold Inventory (in Rs Cr) & Unsold Area (in Cr Sqft) • The gross value of the unsold inventory stands at Rs.48,526 crores. • Opportunity for the state government to garner nearly Rs.3000 crores by way of stamp duty, LBT & VAT. © Gera Developments Pvt. Ltd. 10
  • 11. Value of Unsold Inventory (in Rs Cr) & Unsold Area (in Cr Sqft) 21542 27400 31760 39085 39697 48526 4.47 5.49 5.96 7.08 7.11 9.10 0.00 2.00 4.00 6.00 8.00 10.00 12.00 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 45000 50000 55000 60000 Dec '12 Jun '13 Dec '13 Jun '14 Dec '14 Jun '15 UnsoldAreainCrSqft Value(inCr) Value ( in Cr) Unsold area (in Cr Sqft) © Gera Developments Pvt. Ltd. 11
  • 12. Fresh Supply Launched (PMC vs Non PMC) • Only 24.55% of the stock added between January ’15 to June ’15 is within PMC limits indicating that most of the incremental stock is added outside the Pune Municipal Corporation limits. • Indicates the growth of the city outward. • Will lead to declining revenues by way of development charges and premiums for the PMC. © Gera Developments Pvt. Ltd. 12
  • 13. (Top 20 micromarkets with the Fresh Supply Launched Jan'15 to Jun'15) 5981 5282 4140 3491 3241 3126 2709 2337 2200 2032 1864 1806 1805 1802 1675 1444 1348 1270 1236 1184 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 Bhosari… Dehu/Gahunje/Ki… Wagholi Lavle… Kanhe/Somatne… Alandi/Alandi… Undri Kondhwa/Pisoli/Y… Chakan/Chimbli Wakad Anand… Bavdhan NaviSangvi/Old… Ambegaon Hinjewadi Narhe Balewadi Loni… Dhayari Fursungi/Uruli… © Gera Developments Pvt. Ltd. 13
  • 14. Fresh supply launched (PMC vs Non PMC) 43457 51746 40935 60066 46826 63998 13934 15222 16703 18036 13483 15709 32.06% 29.42% 40.80% 30.03% 28.79% 24.55% 20.00% 25.00% 30.00% 35.00% 40.00% 45.00% 0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 70000 Dec '12 Jun '13 Dec '13 Jun '14 Dec '14 Jun '15 Pune ( PMC + Non PMC) PMC % PMC to Pune © Gera Developments Pvt. Ltd. 14
  • 15. Top 10 Micromarkets with the Highest Price Gains in the last 2 years 13.67% 39.91% 29.81% 25.90% 22.68% 20.59% 18.57% 18.27% 17.92% 17.51% 17.14% 0.00% 5.00% 10.00% 15.00% 20.00% 25.00% 30.00% 35.00% 40.00% 45.00% AllMarkets Aranyeshwar/Balaji Nagar/Bibvewadi/Dhan kawadi/Padmavati/S… Akurdi/Nigdi/Nigdi Pradhikaran Erandwane/Karve Road/Karvenagar/Koth rud Manjari Fursungi/UruliDevachi BoatClub Road/Tadiwala Road/Koregaon… Market Yard/Lullanagar/Salisb uryPark/Mukund… Warje Katraj/KhedShivapur Chinchwad/Dange Chowk/Thergaon © Gera Developments Pvt. Ltd. 15
  • 16. Bottom 10 Micromarkets with the Lowest Price Gains in the last 2 years 13.67% 1.02% 1.78% 3.74% 6.60% 6.90% 6.97% 7.55% 8.23% 8.71% -5.00% 5.00% 15.00% 25.00% 35.00% 45.00% AllMarkets City(Centre) Bakori/Bolhai/Shirsatwa di Bhosari Pradhikaran/Chikhali/… Ghorpadi(SopanBaug) Fatima Nagar/Wanowrie/Salu… KondhaweDhawade /Shivane/UttamNagar Dhanori/Lohegaon Narhe VimanNagar/Yerawada BanerPashanLink Road/Pashan/Sus/Su… © Gera Developments Pvt. Ltd. 16
  • 17. Conclusion • Big picture shows a challenging scenario • The market has expanded in terms of supply and at the same time, while sales numbers have dropped, they continue to happen • Prices will not see any significant correction unless something drastic happens • Regulatory impact will further push prices up when the time is right (ReRA, MHA) • Time is right to buy a home • Govt. should focus on generating revenue by lowering tax rates for faster sales, increased momentum & higher GDP © Gera Developments Pvt. Ltd. 17