After a large gap up of 6%, TSLA made a bullish opening range and pulled into VWAP. Institutional buyers were clearly present around VWAP on the level 2, and we got a quick bounce of VWAP and made a new HOD.

1. Gap up Bounce day
Catalyst: Bounce day after extreme weakness
Setup: Gap up Bounce Day
Trades: Wedge and Wedge scalps
Ticker: TSLA
Date: 29-12-22

2. Gameplan
What is the catalyst?
Gapping up premarket after extreme weakness. 9% pre volume buzz. 6% gap up.
What is the setup & intraday fundamentals?
Could be a capitulation setup.
Could be a bounce day where we just go higher. Capitulation might have been yesterday.
Could be a gap & fail setup.
We held up yesterday and didn’t make a lower low. We bounce of the low and are now gapping up a lot.
Mentally walk though potential patterns.
We held up yesterday and didn’t make a lower low. We bounced of the low and are now gapping up a lot.
-A hold above 119 after the open could mean a continuation setup to the upside. I preferably see a strong
push and hold above 124 or 121.50. That would be significant.
Strong long trades could perhaps occur in this scenario, because we might have continuation left to the
upside.
-If we fail 119 then we likely have a range day between 120 and 114 or so. This would be a gap and fail.
Move2move trades in between levels would be the most obvious.
-A sharp selloff followed by a strong reclaim might be a capitulation play. Usually this is at the low, but we
haven’t seen a strong move intraday yet (,we did that premarket and yesterday’s premarket).
Be prepared to update expectations. For example, if a stock is trending what do I need to see that the
trend is ending?
Price action is key. I want to pay attention to the level 2 and the chart to identify potential support and
resistance areas. Just because we open strong or weak doesn’t mean we be strong and weak. Wait for
after the open for extra confirmation of the trend!

3. Catalyst &
Fundamentals
Catalyst: Technical catalyst: Extreme weakness. Since December:
Extreme weakness. Down over 45% in one month and down over
30% in the last 7 consecutive days. Pre volume buzz was high,
higher than yesterday. Only 4 green days this month, 13 closed
red.
Setup: Potential bounce or Gap & Fail.
RVOL is elevated, prebuzz% is higher than yesterday: 12%
compared to 9%.
Float: 2640 million.
Institutional Ownership: 44,8%
Short %: 2,94%.
ATR: 10,13.
Average Daily volume (50 day): 102 million.
Gap: 6,6%
RVOL: 4,5 (10AM).

4. Key levels
Support:
We have the familiar support levels 115,50 and 114.
Both 8/10
117 is premarket support 7/10
Resistance:
119,50 high of Tuesday 7/10
121.50 and 124, both former intraday levels. 7.5-
8/10 significance.
126.50 is also a 7/10 former intraday level.
Notes:
-Former intraday levels from last week are more
difficult to establish and were less important then
the psychological whole and half dollar levels. Focus
on HTF levels that are not intraday for more clarity.
-I forgot to mention 121 level which was the
premarket high, this is more recent and more
important than last week’s intraday levels. Also,
when we have a significant gap up this is an
important level.

5. Technical Analysis: Daily
Extremely week. Selling has
increased in December in volume
and in slope. Sold off +40% in 25
days.
Sold off +30% in last 8 days.
A bounce day where we close
green seems to make sense.

6. Bounce day–
Trade Strategy
Stock selection
-Stock in play with a significant (technical) catalyst, earnings report or strong/weak theme.
-Elevated RVOL above 3.
Setup: Hypos: bounce day or gap & fail.
Does the setup match the catalyst?
Yes. TSLA is extreme weak and sold off a lot. A gap up of 6% after 7 days of selling and one small green day
makes sense. A green day after all this selling fits the bigger picture.
VWAP pull in cue’s/variables
-Large gap up. Bullish patterns more likely.
-Bullish opening range. With significant volume but only 0.37ATR move.
-Room for new HOD even if we get a small bounce day:
Hypos: bounce day or gap & fail. Combined with a small opening push we could easily trade above the
opening range and fail later or hold.
-Shallow volume pull in.
-Quick bounce of VWAP followed by reclaim 9EMA
Does the trade match the setup?
Yes. Even though a trend day is less likely, we are gapping up and showing bullish price action during the
open. We are not extended and can easily bounce of VWAP and make a new HOD. This however is a
move2move trade and not a trade2hold. We are up only small on the day. On a trend day we would likely
have seen a stronger push during the open.

7. VWAP Pull In M2M – Trade Management
.
Move2move– Exit strategy
-Measured move: HOD 50%
-Psychological levels: 122, 122,50
-Very strong offers on the tape.
Entry criteria VWAP pull in
Triggers: False breakdown below VWAP on
low volume OR insignificant reclaim of
VWAP.
Risk: Low of pull in.
IF I get stopped out after trigger, THEN I
want to get in lower for a new trigger and
set a wider stop.
Move2move – Flat
1) Strong continuation:
IF a lot of volume comes in after
the break of HOD, THEN I get
flat for a significant close below
the 1m 20 EMA.
2) Weaker scenario (most likely)
IF price starts to stall out after
the break, THEN I get flat for a
significant close below the 1m
9EMA.

8. Technical
Analysis:
VWAP Pull In
Quick false break down and an
immediate reclaim.
Shallow volume during pull in
Not extended (0.3ATR).
Strong gap up (6%)
Bullish opening range/ OD

9. Reading the tape
Quick pull in to VWAP – Entry signal(34:10)
-We trade down to VWAP which is around 119,75.
- A lot of bids are stepping up below ,70. This happens multiple times.
-We trade down to ,54 but can’t test ,50 psychological level.
-Next key offer at 121 gets lifted. We trade back down to ,85 on the
bids. Within a second we are above 121 again.
-We trade below it for 1 second at ,97 and the hold.
Triggers on the tape:
1) Institutional buying:
Large size sitting on the bids. Doesn’t have to be at the bottom of pull
in: large players want to get filled here. They are absorbing the selling
volume. After this it shouldn’t go much lower.
2) Strong offers get lifted with green prints.
3) We hold above former key offers significantly.

10. What could I have done
better?
• Identify levels when stock is most likely to trend when it holds
above or below. The open push in ATR is an important indicator. In
this case we made a small ATR move which made a trade2hold less
likely.
• I know have incorporated IF..THEN statements that include volume
when it makes a new HOD. When volume starts to increase after a
break of HOD, the probability of continuation is higher. I want to
set a wider stop for this.
When there isn’t much volume, on a move2move trade I want to
be out quicker. The chance of a pullback to the opening range high
has increased.
• For this setup I must study the differences between a VWAP
consolidation and price going higher or a quick failed breakdown
and reclaim as today. Both scenarios have their own nuances, and
each setup is the same. Studying the tape will be very important.