A year from now, Scotland could be an independent country. Whether the prospect appeals or appals, an independent Scotland holds significant political consequences. This article seeks to consider three of those implications; the notion of sovereignty, the legitimacy of the result and the prospect of the United Kingdom collapsing altogether.

1. Kevin Bloor, Head of Politics, Headington School, Oxford
Independence
for Scotland?
A year from now, Scotland could be an
independent country. Whether the prospect
appeals or appals, an independent
Scotland holds significant political
consequences. This article seeks to
consider three of those implications;
the notion of sovereignty, the legitimacy
of the result and the prospect of the
United Kingdom collapsing altogether.
The most important implication of the referendum relates to the
concept of sovereignty. Does it lie with the Westminster parliament,
or with the Scottish people? The Scottish Constitutional convention
asserts that sovereignty lies with the people of Scotland. On paper,
this sounds relatively clear. However, this bland statement leaves the
whole question unclear as to what level sovereignty lies. Does it
apply to elections for the Westminster parliament, or elections held
for the Scottish parliament? It is a very tricky question, and one that
relates to the mandate claimed jointly by the Scottish government
and the Westminster government.
Traditionally, a mandate is claimed on a nationwide rather than
country-by-country basis. As such, the party with the majority of
seats during a General Election claims a mandate to govern the
whole of the UK. However, the Scottish Nationalist Party won an
absolute majority of seats in the 2011 Holyrood elections. In accordance
with their manifesto, the party has pushed forward a referendum
that asks voters to consider the future status of Scotland. As the
majority party in the Scottish parliament, they have the authority
to do this within Scotland.
However, the UK government favours the maintenance of the union.
The question of where sovereignty lies is more than mere semantics.
It holds implications for a union that has held together for over three
centuries.
The second implication to consider is the legitimacy of the subsequent
result. Will it be seen as legitimate?
There is of course no convention within the British system of
governance for holding a referendum on any issue, independence
or otherwise. Secondly; the government can simply ignore their
previous commitment. More importantly, they can even ignore the
result. This is usually achieved by holding another referendum in

2. Kevin Bloor, Head of Politics, Headington School, Oxford
Independence
for Scotland?
(continued)
order to gain the result they would prefer. Moreover, there is no
agreement over how long a referendum result should be held binding.
Should the people of Scotland therefore be asked at repeated intervals?
The SNP could well lose the next elections to the Scottish parliament,
and their pro-unionist replacement could legitimately overturn the
apparatus of an independent Scotland (provided the people say yes).
Finally, should the people in the rest of the United Kingdom have a
say?
It is no exaggerated to say that we are in a completely unchartered
area. The SNP have a mandate based upon the verdict of the Scottish
parliamentary results held in 2011. However, this is not an entirely
clear-cut area. In the 2010 General Election the party gained just 6
MPs. In that same election, 53 seats in Scotland were gained by parties
committed to maintaining the union. As such, the whole premise of
Scottish independence rests on shaky foundations. Given the magnitude
of the decision, this does not bode well for an independent Scotland.
The final implication to consider is the very future of the United
Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland? If the Scottish people
decide to opt for independence, there is a possibility that separatist
movements in Wales and Northern Ireland will gain added momentum.
English nationalism may also experience something of a resurgence.
Having said this; the UK has managed to maintain its territorial
character for a great deal longer than many of its European
counterparts.
Whilst no-one could deny that the Scottish people are deeply patriotic,
opinion polls suggest that the majority of voters north of the border
wish to remain a part of the UK. The recent economic difficulties
faced by the Republic of Ireland may well prove a decisive factor
during the campaign, as it concentrates minds upon the practical
implications of going it alone in a turbulent world. When faced with
the reality of the ballot-box, the ‘politics of the head’ often defeats
the ‘politics of the heart’ If however the people of Scotland decide
to go their own way, then there are serious implications for us all
to consider.
Questions
Why is Scottish nationalism stronger than Welsh
nationalism?
Why did Scottish nationalism emerge as a political force
during the 1970s?
(Classroom debate) Consider the arguments for and
against Scottish independence?