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Marjan Podgoršek Rotary club Kranj, februar 2009
Akterji krize Kupci FED Hipotekarni  posredniki Investicijske  banke Investitorji Bonitetne  agencije Zavarovalnice
Osnovni pojmi ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Žarišče Letni obseg izdanih CDO na subprime USD Mlrd. 2004 157.4 2005 271.8 2006 520.6 2007 481.6 2008 56.1
Primarni proces ,[object Object],Glavnica  +  dolgoročne obresti kredit kredit  + provizija dokumenti dokumenti Banka  ( dajalec kredita ) Hipotekarni posrednik “ Subprime ”   kupec
Iz kreditov v MBS ,[object Object],Glavnica  +  dolgoročne obresti kredit kredit  + provizija dokumenti dokumenti Banka  ( dajalec kredita ) Hipotekarni posrednik “ Subprime ”   kupec SIV Investicijska  banka Kredit  + provizija dokumenti   konvertirani v vrednostne papirje  (MBS/ABS ) Izvenbilančna postavka
Iz MBS v  CDO ,[object Object],CDO (MBS) Global CDO Issuance Volume [7]
Certifikacija ,[object Object],Glavnica  +  dolgoročne obresti kredit Kredit  + provizija dokumenti Documents Banka  ( dajalec kredita) Hipotekarni  posrednik Subprime  kupec SIV Investicijska  banka Kredit  + provizija dokumenti   konvertirani v vrednostne papirje  (MBS/ABS) Izvenbilančna postavka CDO CRA Rating Provizija
Investitorji ,[object Object],Glavnica  +  dolgoročne obresti kredit Kredit  + provizija dokumenti Documents Banka  ( dajalec kredita) Hipotekarni posrednik Subprime  kupec SIV Investicijska  banka Kredit  + provizija dokumenti   konvertirani v vrednostne papirje  (MBS/ABS) Izvenbilančna postavka CRA Rating Provizija CDO Investitor Kredit  + provizija
Zavarovalnice ,[object Object],Glavnica  +  dolgoročne obresti kredit Kredit  + provizija dokumenti Documents Banka  ( dajalec kredita) Hipotekarni posrednik Subprime  kupec SIV Investicijska  banka Kredit  + provizija dokumenti   konvertirani v vrednostne papirje  (MBS/ABS) Izvenbilančna postavka CRA Rating Provizija CDO Investitor Kredit  + provizija Zavarovalnica zavarovanje P rovzija
Financial Crises International Political Economy
Če se rast cen izplača se tudi zgodi  Financial Crises International Political Economy
Financial Crises International Political Economy
Nekakovostno delo bonitetnih hiš International Political Economy
Še splošni vzroki krize “s ubprime ” ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Financial Crises International Political Economy
Posledice   Trg hipotek Trg prodaje hiš padel na dno
“ Subprime ”   kupci
Invest itorji
Investicijske banke nacionalizirane bankrotirane
Bonitetne hiše
Zavarovalnice ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Global ni trg vrednostnih papirjev ,[object Object],[object Object]
Trg denarja
Zaupanje v borzo
Vsem ne gre slabo ! Porast alternativnih tipov naložb
Toliko o neposrednem vzroku ,[object Object]
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],K redi tna kriza Financial Crises International Political Economy
In potem drago reševanje International Political Economy
In ni še konec – stanje glavnega bolnika (ZDA)  International Political Economy
Financial Crises International Political Economy Skrivanje enormne rasti mase denarja (“Fiat” money)
Skrita rast cen (z manipulacijo statistike)
S pravilnim razumevanjem inflacije je US BDP precenjen Financial Crises ,[object Object]
Politi čno ekonomski učinek :  Zgodovinske paralele ,[object Object],International Political Economy
Zgodovinski vzorci :  Krizam so sledile spremembe v ekonomskih sistemih ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Vprašanja&odgovori

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