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Japan Market Focus No.2
Opdivo emerges as market leader in the PD-1/PD-L1 market in Japan
While Opdivo and Keytruda are competing head to head for the global market leadership in the PD-1/PD-L1 space,
Opdivo emerges as the dominant player in Japan according to Evaluate Japan Drug Forecasts.
The Bristol-Myers Squibb compound, which is marketed in Japan by Ono Pharmaceutical, was launched in 2014 and is
set to achieve $1.4 billion by 2022 with a market share of 46% in the segment. The slow down in sales in 2017 is due to
a 50% price reduction imposed by the Japan Health Ministry to mitigate budget impact concerns. While sales of Opdivo
have been driven primarily by usage in NSCLC patients, by 2022 stomach cancer is set to become Opdivo’s leading
indication due to the high incidence of patients for that condition.
Despite the late launch, Keytruda is expected to reduce the gap with Opdivo and is forecast to reach a 28% market
share by 2022. Imfinzi, Tecentriq and Bavencio are expected to compete for the remaining 25% of the market,
consistently with the global outlook for this class.
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Source: Evaluate Japan Drug Forecasts. July 2017Top 5 PD-1/PD-L1 Products
Studycount
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
0
Imfinzi BavencioKeytrudaOpdivo Tecentriq
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Source: Evaluate Japan Drug Forecasts. July 2017Opdivo – Sales by Indication 2022
Japan Sales 2022
$1.41 bn
¥154.92 bn
Indications Japan Sales Japan Sales
($bn) 2022 (¥bn) 2022
Stomach cancer 0.46 50.12
Non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) 0.35 38.03
Renal cell carcinoma (RCC) 0.26 28.82
Head & neck cancers 0.12 13.56
Liver cancer 0.10 11.01
Melanoma 0.07 7.84
Oesophageal cancer 0.04 4.77
Hodgkin’s Lymphoma 0.01 0.76
Total $1.41 bn ¥154.92 bn
Source: Evaluate Japan Drug Forecasts. July 2017Top 5 PD-1/PD-L1 Products
Studycount
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
0
Imfinzi BavencioKeytrudaOpdivo Tecentriq
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Source: Evaluate Japan Drug Forecasts. July 2017Opdivo – Sales by Indication 2022
Japan Sales 2022
$1.41 bn
¥154.92 bn
Indications Japan Sales Japan Sales
($bn) 2022 (¥bn) 2022
Stomach cancer 0.46 50.12
Non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) 0.35 38.03
Renal cell carcinoma (RCC) 0.26 28.82
Head & neck cancers 0.12 13.56
Liver cancer 0.10 11.01
Melanoma 0.07 7.84
Oesophageal cancer 0.04 4.77
Hodgkin’s Lymphoma 0.01 0.76
Total $1.41 bn ¥154.92 bn
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