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The Big Picture


End-to-End Supply Chain and Design Capabilities to
Mitigate Risk and Enable Performance
Rory King, Director Design & Supply Chain, IHS
Glenn Bassett, VP Strategy, Design & Supply Chain, IHS
Mark Snider, President and Co-Founder, ERAI Inc.
April 29, 2011
IHS Inc.
A Leading Information Provider




 • Founded in 1959, IHS is a leading source of information and expert analysis in
   pivotal areas shaping today’s global businesses

 • Employs 4,400 colleagues in 30 countries who speak 50 different languages

 • IHS customers include nearly 70% of the US Fortune1000 and 80% of the
   Global Fortune 500

 • Tens of thousands of customers and hundreds of thousands of end-
   users in over 100 countries
     •   Public (2005)   NYSE: IHS

     •   FY10 revenue    $ 1,075 million




 2
Just a few of our clients
Thousands of users globally




      Avid
Current Pressures: Counterfeiting a Priority
Early in 2011 top senators launched the investigation




   “The presence of counterfeit
   electronic parts in the Defense
   Department’s supply chain is a
   growing problem that government
   and industry share a common
   interest in solving.”
                                                  Carl Levin, D-Michigan, and
                                                 Sen. John McCain, R-Arizona
                                                                  March 2011


Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.                                  4
Current Pressures: Japan Crisis
  Japan produces roughly 60% of silicon wafers globally

                                                                                                         Semiconductor Fabs
Silicon Wafer Production                                                            3                    1    Aizu Wakamatsu, Fukushima
A Shin-Etsu Kamisu, Ibaraki                                                                                    ON Semiconductor (Logic)
                                                                                                               Fujitsu (Analog, Discrete, Memory)
B Shin-Etsu Nishigo, Fukushima                                                                                 Texas Instruments (Analog, Optical)
                                                                                                         2    Atsugi, Kanagawa
C MEMC Utsunomiya, Tochigi
                                                                                         6                     Mitsumi (Analog, Logic)
D SUMCO Yonezawa, Yamagata                                                                               3    Goshogawara, Aomori
                                                                                                               Renesas (Logic)
                                                                               13     10 9
                                                                                                         4    Gunma
                                                                                     11
Display Manufacturing                                                            D                             ON Semiconductor (Discrete, Logic)
 Hitachi Displays                                                                1          Epicenter         Renesas (Analog, Discrete)
 Panasonic LCD                                                                 B                        5    Hitachinaka, Ibaraki
 Tohoku Pioneer                                                                                               Renesas (Logic, Micro, Memory)
                                                                                                         6    Iwate
                                                                          4
                                                                               14       Fukushima              Fujitsu (Micro, Memory)
Resins, Films, Chemicals,                                                     12 C                             Toshiba (Discrete)
Copper Clad Laminate…                                                            5                       7    Kofu, Yamanashi
                                                                               8 A
                                                                      7                                        Renesas (Analog, Logic, Micro)
                                                                          2    Tokyo                     8    Miho, Ibaraki
                                                                                                               Texas Instruments (Analog, Optical)
                                                                                                         9    Miyagi
                                                                                                               Fujitsu (Logic, Micro)
                                                                                                               Rohm (Discrete, Micro)
                                                                                                         10   Sendai, Miyagi
                                                                                                               Freescale (Logic)
                                                                                                         11   Shiroishi, Miyagi
                                               Source – IHS iSuppli                                            Sony Semiconductor (Logic)
                                                                                                         12   Tsukuba, Ibaraki
                                                                                                               Rohm (Discrete)
                                                                                                         13   Tsuruoka, Yamagata
                                                                                                               Renesas (Logic)
                                                                                                         14   Utsunomiya, Tochigi
                                                                                                               Matushita (Discrete)

  Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.                                                                                                      5
Current Pressures: Environmental Compliance
Regardless of exemptions these have a ripple effect on materials used

                                                   Bisphenol-A “BPA Free”                                                  Customer RFP
                                                                                                 China RoHS
   Full Material Disclosure
                                                   EU RoHS Recast                      Energy         Priority Declarable Substances List
                                                                                                                   (ASD PDSL)
  Toxic Substances Control Act (TSCA)                             Waste                                                               Greenpeace
                                                                                                  Health Canada / Canada’s Chemical
                                                               SIN List - Substitute It Now!                Management Plan
            EU REACH & SVHC
                                                                                                   Security           US California Proposition 65
Hazardous ISO 14064 GHG Standards
                                                                           DEHP-Free                            Norway PoHS
                                                                         UN Stockholm Persistent
 Substances                                                              Organic Pollutants (POPS)          Air                         Safety
                                             Argentina RoHS                                                         Product Content Disclosure
                                   EU RoHS and WEEE                            Thailand’s “RoHS”
                                                                                                          EU Battery Directive
                                        Directives
                                            Japan Green                             ENERGY STAR             Carbon Disclosure Project (CDP)
                                                          Volatile Organic Compounds
                                                                                                  US FDA
                                                             Electronic Product Environmental                              Natural Resources
                                                                                                     Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI)
                                                                Assessment Tool (EPEAT)
                                                 Health
                                                                                                PCF - Product Carbon Footprint
                                                           Conflict Minerals
                                                                                                  Water                       Lifecycle Assessment (LCA)
                                  EU Medical Device Directive
                                                                   Environmentally Preferred Products (EPP)
                                              US EPA Executive Orders


Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.                                                                                                             6
Example: Impact of Environmental Compliance
on Through-Life Obsolescence Management

                        Product Lifecycle Stages
                                            Maturity
                                                       Decline

                             Growth                              Phase-Out

  Introduction                                                           Obsolete




                      The Supply Chain Problem
                         Optimizing supply to meet demand.
                                                                                    Business Pressures Influencing
                                                                                              Products
      Products                                                                      Drivers of innovation and lifecycle decisions.




     Parts/Materials




 Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.                                                                                      7
Example: RoHS’ Unplanned Lifecycle Impact
2M+ new parts. Major part changes. Cause of over 20% EOL in ‘06-07.
                                                                           End of Life (EOL)
                                                        Specific to RoHS/Pb-free Environmental Compliance

                                                 EOL




                                                           2003     2004     2005    2006   2007    2008     2009



                                                             Product Change Notices (PCN)
                                                       Specific to RoHS/Pb-free Environmental Compliance


                                                 PCN




                                                             2003    2004     2005   2006   2007   2008     2009



                                                           New Product Introductions (NPI )
                                                       Specific to RoHS/Pb-free Environm ental Com pliance
                    Market Shift
                    to EU RoHS

                                                 NPI


                                                             2003    2004     2005   2006   2007   2008    2009




                                                                               RoHS in Force July 1, 2006
Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.                                                                      8
Economic Recession Imposed Major
Lifecycle Disruptions
                        Gross EOL by MONTH 2008                                                         Gross EOL by YEAR ENDING 2004 - 2009
                                                                                                                               EOL by MFR due solely to
                                                                    EU REACH SVHC          619                                   demand/sales forecast.
                                          Lehman files                Published
                                            Chapter 11




            206




  0

             Jan     Feb     Mar     Apr     May       Jun   Jul   Aug   Sep   Oct   Nov   Dec   2004       2005   2006     2007         2008         2009




Economic Recession and Chemical Restrictions:
The two most dominant factors in the 300% increase of End of Life (EOL) for electrical components exiting 2008.
                                                                                                                          Source: IHS Component Insight, 2010
      Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.                                                                                                            9
                                                                                                                                   4
Effect: Material Shortages and
Increased Lead Time (among other things…)
                                                      August 5, 2010




Recession triggered large inventory reductions –
  primary reduction in non-compliant parts employed
  by medical device companies

Shortages of key electronics components…
  became pronounced in the first quarter FY10,
  and continued in the second.

General Electric Co. said supply constraints for
  electronic components used in its healthcare
  equipment cost the company $50 million in
  sales for the quarter.


 Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.                        10
Implication: Rising Lead Time = Key
 indicator for Increased Counterfeit
 Activity
"They ground aircraft and impact airplane safety.”

What do counterfeits do                                                     Incidents Continue to Rise
       Increase warranty/maint. costs                        65%
       Reduce expected product life                          64%
       Inhibit sales / customer satisfaction 62%
       Add to individual unit costs                          51%
       Increase development time/costs                       38%


What do counterfeits cause?
       Product quality/reliability failures                  84%
       Customer returns/recalls                              67%
       Production line stoppages                             57%
       Product launch delays                                 36%


What do counterfeits impact?
       Damage brand / reputation                             71%
       Product safety / legal liability                      55%
       Expose contractual liability                          42%
       Compromise security                                   37%
                                                                              “Jeopardize our missions
       Undermine compliance claims                           44%                  and soldiers safety.”
          Source: “Benchmarking Counterfeit & Inferior Grade Components”,
                                 Supply & Demand Chain Executive, 2009
 Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.
                                                                                                          11   11
Correlation: Counterfeits and EOL
Obsolescence and allocation pose significant risk




                                                    Source: IHS Inc. 2011

Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.                              12
Conclusion: RoHS Was Very “Costly”
Compliance is really not the issue – Obsolescence risks are…

                     COMPLIANCE (explicit)                                              SUPPLY CHAIN & DESIGN COST
       Fines, Penalties, Recalls, Data, IT, Supplier Evaluation….                   Obsolescence, Supplier Viability, Material Shortages, Continuity



                                   Regulatory event = $160M+ government
     Japanese
                                   seizure of 1M+ product units due to high
 Electronics OEM
                                   cadmium concentration levels found in
       Recall
                                   system cables suspected to violate EU law.

                                   Design reliability = $1B+ recall logistics,
 US Consumer                       warranty extensions, excessive
 Products OEM                      rework/repair, while customer loyalty dipped
     Recall                        to resolve reliability issues causing hardware
                                   failure.
                                                                                                                                  Source: UK MOD

             SUPPLIER/MATERIAL COSTS                                                       SAFETY & SECURITY COSTS
   Price Variance, Manufacturing Processes, Inventory/LTB…                                     Reliability, Tin Whiskers, Counterfeits…




                                                                                                         Tin Whisker Images Courtesy of the NASA




 Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.                                                       Counterfeits and Inferior Grade Components       13
And… RoHS Was Just the Beginning…
The discontinuous sustainability and compliance shift

                                                     Bisphenol-A “BPA Free”                          China RoHS
                                                                                                                             Customer RFP
  Conflict Minerals
                                                     EU RoHS Recast                Energy              Priority Declarable Substances List
                                                                                                                    (ASD PDSL)
    Toxic Substances Control Act (TSCA)                           Waste                           Health Canada / Canada’s Chemical
                                                                                                                                           Greenpeace

                                                              SIN List - Substitute It Now!                Management Plan
              EU REACH & SVHC
                                                                                                  Security             US California Proposition 65
                                                                               DEHP-Free
  Hazardous ISO 14064 GHG Standards                                                                               Norway PoHS
                                                                        UN Stockholm Persistent
   Substances                                                                                                                            Safety
                                                                        Organic Pollutants (POPS)            Air
                                               Argentina RoHS                                                         Product Content Disclosure
                                                                               Thailand’s “RoHS”
                            EU RoHS and WEEE Directives                                                           EU Battery Directive
                                           Japan Green                             ENERGY STAR               Carbon Disclosure Project (CDP)
                                                         Volatile Organic Compounds
                                                                                                    US FDA

                                                             Electronic Product Environmental                               Natural Resources
                                                                                                     Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI)
                                                                Assessment Tool (EPEAT)
                                                   Health
                                                                                                PCF - Product Carbon Footprint
                                                       US EPA Executive Orders
                                                                                                 Water                          Lifecycle Assessment (LCA)
                                    EU Medical Device Directive
                                                                                Environmentally Preferred Products (EPP)

                                                                                                                   Full Material Disclosure

  Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.                                                                                                             14
Now… EU REACH is a Huge Deal
European Commission roadmap includes 106 priority SVHC by 2012



                                                     “Airbus UK’s director of operations and
                                                     compliance, said the cost of REACH had
                                                   been evaluated at several million Euro over
                                                   three years, with provisions up to hundreds
                                                       of millions of Euro over five years”…




                                                      “…[He] said there is a level of ambiguity
                                                     because it will depend ‘on the substances
                                                     that will finally be added to the candidate
                                                    list and in Annex XIV’. Airbus UK has set its
                                                   2009 REACH budget at some EUR12 million.”
                                                             Source: “EU and industry REACH different conclusions”, Jane’s, September 2009


                                                                                                                                15
  Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.                                                                                             15
Why “Hundreds of Millions” in Risk?
Material restrictions change the entire supply and demand picture


            EU REACH “Chemicals”                                                   Sectors Impacted
                                                                                        Semiconductors


                                                                                        Communications


                                                                                        Energy & Utilities

 “Substances”                                    “Preparations”      “Articles”
   are individual                                  are mixtures       any object        Electronic Devices
     chemicals                                      or solutions      produced

                                                                                        Aerospace & Defense


                                                                                        Consumer Goods

                  Imported                         Manufactured    Used
                                                                                        Chemical & Process

                                                                                        Medical & Healthcare

Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.                                                                 16
This is NOT exclusive to Any Industry
A typical hospital setting…




                                                 Deca-BDE?

                                                                   DEHP?


                                                    Cadmium?




                                                             Phthalates?



                                                   Lead?


Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.                             17
Medical Products Are Exposed to Risk
Complex Regulations  Long Cycles  Major Design & SC Analysis Required

Top 2010 environmental compliance                                   50% + of all redesign and                        Compliance requires comprehensive
drivers include the FDA and EU                                      certification of medical products                material composition, supply chain,
REACH, RoHS + Recast and MDD.                                       would take more than a year.                     technical design and lifecycle data.


US FDA (e.g. CFR 21)                                                                                                    Technical Fit (e.g.
                                                                     Less than 1 Month         4.5%                                                        87.5%
  EU REACH & SVHC                                                                                                      Form, Fit, Function)
    EU RoHS/WEEE                                                           1 - 3 Months        4.5%                   Material Disclosure &
                                                                                                                                                          79.1%
  EU Medical Device…                                                                                                      Composition
EU RoHS Recast / v2                                                        3 - 6 Months        8.0%
                                                                                                                         Compliance Status               77.0%
           China RoHS
                                                                         6 - 12 Months                    30.7%
    Health Canada /…
                                                                                                                                 Reliability            72.9%
         RoHS - Other…                                                  12 - 18 Months            20.5%

   Toxic Substances…                                                                                                   Lifecycle Analysis &
                                                                  More than 18 months                     31.8%                                        68.7%
      Proposition 65…                                                                                                   Supply Continuity

                              0%       5%       10%   15%   20%                           0%     10% 20% 30% 40%                               0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%


Entering 2010, the top 3 regulatory drivers                       Figure 2: Redesign or certifying your              Figure 3: To evaluate new or existing
influencing program / resource allocations?                       primary product/line would take?                   parts for material compliance, which
                                                                                                                     factors play a role in part selection?
Source: Benchmarking Medical Supply Chains, Supply
                                                                       Source: Survey of 17 of 18 Fortune 1000 Top        Source: Live Audience Poll Supply & Demand
     & Demand Chain Executive, March 2010 (prelim.
                                                                      Medical Products & Equipment companies and         Chain Executive Webcast "Redesigning Medical
                                          Results)
                                                                     50+ other manufacturers, “Redesigning Medical              Supply Chains" Supply & Demand Chain
                                                                           Supply Chains”, Supply & Demand Chain                 Executive, Thursday, October 15, 2009
                                                                             Executive, Thursday, October 15, 2009




    Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.
                                                                                                                                                                   18    18
The Entire Medical Peer Group is Watching
 We held a Webcast called “Redesigning Medical Supply Chains”

Over $80B in spend among the Fortune 1000…




                                                  … and only 1 did not join our webcast…
 Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.                                            19
What Steps Can be Taken to Mitigate Risk?
Buyer and Supplier must collaborate on regulations, standards, and implementation thereof




                                                         Airworthy?




                                                 Regulations   Standards   Parts
                                                                                            20
Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.                                                   20
Early Warning System to Avoid Risk
Robust supply chain traceability and alerting methods to mitigate risk


Challenge                                                                     Economic downturn…                                               …shortage…                           …fake parts…
                                                                            Environmental Compliance




                                                                                                                                                                                        …mission failure!

Establish the Information, Tools, and Processes to Mitigate Risk
             Qualify                                                    Manage                                  Validate                            Report                   Redesign
            + Approve                                                   + Avoid                                 + Detect                           + Resolve                 + Resupply

 Establish infrastructure to                                Update processes, tools, and         Validate, sample and test                  Procedures to notify       Maintain controlled
 mitigate risk through qualified                            information to avoid                 components for authenticity.               stakeholders, report       design/redesign cycles of
 and approved designs,                                      counterfeit and high risk            Quarantine suspected                       occurrences, and resolve   products. Optimize parts,
 suppliers, & parts.                                        parts.                               counterfeits.                              incidents.                 inventory, and suppliers.



                      Monitor Lifecycles                                            PCN/EOL to Detect Issues                                       Price/Lead Time         Counterfeit Incidents
                                                                                                       End of Life (EOL)
                                                                                      Specific to RoHS/Pb-free Environmental Compliance


                                Maturity
                                           Decline

                       Growth                        Phase-Out

       Introduction                                          Obsolete


                                                                                        2003    2004     2005   2006   2007   2008   2009




Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.                                                                                                                                                              21
3 Essential Steps We’ll Discuss
 Establish the Tools, Processes, and People…
        •            Standards and Regulations Management

        •            Technology Value Chain Insight

        •            BOM and Parts Management

        •            Counterfeit Intelligence

 Identify and Mitigate Supply Chain Risks

 Avoid, Detect, and Resolve Counterfeits




Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.              22
Best Practice Workflow

        1. ESTABLISH THE TOOLS,
        PROCESSES, AND PEOPLE…
         Rory King
         Director, Design & Supply Chain
         IHS Inc




Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.   23
Standards – A Lead Role in Risk Mitigation
SAE AS5553 within IHS Standards Expert




                                                 24


Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.        24
Did You Know-Standards Refer to Standards?
SAE AS5553 Standard: Counterfeit Electronic Parts; Avoidance, Detection, Mitigation, and Disposition




                                                                     ANSI

                                                                      EIA




                                                                    MIL-STD

 Did you know, AS5553 refers to:
 -20+ primary references
 -300+ secondary references

 … a lot of critical information…
                                                                    JEDEC

                                                                      IEC


                                                                    ISO QMS
                                                                                                   25
  Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.                                                        25
IHS clients get standards in one place
Standards collections, revisions, alerts to updates…




                                                       26


Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.              26
Same with Technology Market Intelligence
IHS iSuppli iLibrary for clients




Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.   27
Market, Commodity, and Manufacturing Insight
IHS iSuppli provides technology value chain market intelligence




                                                 Source: IHS iSuppli 2011 – Do Not Use or Reproduce

Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.                                                        28
Component Supply Health
Clients gain a view into health of critical components




                                                 Source: IHS iSuppli April 2011 Component Health Watch (CHW)




Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.                                                                 29
BEST PRACTICE WORKFLOW

        2. IDENTIFY AND MITIGATE
        SUPPLY CHAIN RISKS
         Glenn Bassett
         VP Strategic Business Development
         IHS Design & Supply Chain




Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.   30
Risk Identification

• Some examples…

            • Predicted Obsolescence
                     • i.e. Proactive Avoiding of Design Risk
            • Component Health Risk
                     • i.e. Rising Costs and Lead Times, Allocation
            • Lifecycle Event Risk
                     • i.e. EOL / Lifebuy Notice
            • Supply Chain Failure
                     • i.e. Potential Impact of Japan Crisis
            • Counterfeit Incident
                     • i.e. Suspected Counterfeit or High Risk Part




Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.                        31
Moving From Risk Identification To Mitigation

• From Manufacturer & Commodity To End Units Impacted

            • Identifying Components In My Business

            • Linking Down To BOMS & End Devices

            • Prioritize Key Components/BOMS/Devices

            • Identifying Sources Of Inventory

            • Leverage Alternate Sourcing Tools

            • Identify Mitigation Plan Working With Suppliers

            • Develop Counterfeit Mitigation Plan

            • Longer Term Impacts




Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.                  32
Moving From Manufacturer/Commodity To MPN




• Leverage Reference Database To Identify MPNs At Risk
• Analyze AVL For Linkage In Risk Components




Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.           33
Moving From MPN To BOM




                                                 • Leveraging BOM Tools In PLM,
                                                   PDM, Or In This Case IHS BOM
                                                   Manager Helps Move From MPN
                                                   To Affected BOM

                                                 • With BOM Identified, End Unit
                                                   Exposure Can Be Correlated
                                                                Shown: IHS BOM Manager




Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.                                           34
Prioritize Key Components, BOM, Devices




                                                                                NPI Production Imminent
      Proto-type / Pre-Production

                                                 In-production with near-term
                                                           delivery




• Prioritize End Unit Exposure
• Calculate Time Horizon / Revenue Risk Profile
• Prioritize Through End Unit Back To Component
           Calculate Inventory Need & Priority


Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.                                                            35
Where can I get this?



 Where Does Current Inventory
 Exist?
 • Direct from the Factory
 • Approved Vendor / Manufacturer
   (AVL / AML)
 • Franchised and Authorized
   Sources
 • Approved Independent Distributors             Shown: IHS BOM Manager

 • ERAI Members
 • Valid Alternate Parts or Sources




                                                        Shown: IHS-ERAI


Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.                            36
What alternatives exist?




    Equivalent Parts?
    Upgrades? Downgrades?
    Functionally equivalent options?
    Are they ROHS Compliant?

Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.   37
Choices

• AVL Or Alternate
        • Authorized Channel Inventory
        • Secondary Market

• Inventory Investment
        • Bridge Buy
           • Making Bets On Near Term Recovery Or Redesign
        • Lifetime Buy
            • Mitigating Greater Risk Time Horizon




Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.               38
Counterfeit Incident Tracking
ERAI and GIDEP are 2 sources of validated incident reports




    Of reports made, 9% came from GIDEP and 91% from ERAI during the period shown.
                                                                Source: IHS Inc. 2011
Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.                                          39
The Last 6-Years of Component EOL
 2009 – Economic Events Drive EOL: What About 2012

                                                 Manufacturer-Issued End of Life (EOL)
                                                  Distribution of EOL by Dominant Business Driver
                                                                                                            Technology
100%                                                                                                        < 25% of Change
90%

80%
                                                                                                         Demand-Side Drivers
                                                                                                         ~90% of EOL in 2009
70%
                                                                                                    Unspecified / Administrative
60%                                                                                                 Supply Side
                                                                                                    Organizational
50%
                                                                                                    Innovation, Technology, and Manufacturing
40%                                                                                                 Environmental Compliance
                                                                                                    Demand-Side
30%

20%
                                                                                                             Impact of RoHS
10%                                                                                                          Compliance
 0%

               2004                      2005         2006      2007       2008       2009

Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.                                                                                                  40
Moving From Risk Identification To Mitigation

• From Manufacturer & Commodity To End Units Impacted

            • Identifying Components In My Business

            • Linking Down To BOMS & End Devices

            • Prioritize Key Components/BOMS/Devices

            • Identifying Sources Of Inventory

            • Leverage Alternate Sourcing Tools

            • Identify Mitigation Plan Working With Suppliers

            • Develop Counterfeit Mitigation Plan

            • Longer Term Impacts




Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.                  41
Best Practice Workflow

        3. AVOID, DETECT, AND
        RESOLVE COUNTERFEITS
         Mark Snider
         President,
         ERAI Inc.




Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.   42
Our Commitment is Personal




Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.   43
ERAI Inc.
A World of Information at Your Fingertips




  • Founded in 1995, ERAI is an information services organization that
       monitors, investigates and reports issues affecting the global hi-tech
       electronics supply chain.
  • ERAI provides tools to mitigate risks on substandard parts, counterfeit
       parts, vendors and even customers.
  • Subscribers include OEMs, CMs, Distributors, OCMs, government
       agencies and industry associations.
  • Founding participant in SAE International G-19 Counterfeit Electronic
       Components Committee and several sub-groups


 Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.                                 44
Who ERAI is not…

 • ERAI is not a distributor
      or parts broker
 • ERAI is not a sourcebook
      or online catalog
 • ERAI is not a component
      manufacturer or OEM
 • ERAI is not a test lab
      or inspection service
 • ERAI is not a quality                               We do not
                                                 buy, sell, or test parts!
      standards organization
Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.                               45
Exclusive Partner to Only IHS
     One provider of counterfeit alerts and supply chain risk mitigation




46
     Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.                        46
Why? IHS Clients
Thousands of users globally




                      Avid


Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.   47
What’s Being Counterfeited?




                                                                                 Source: ERAI Inc, 2004 to YTD Feb 2011

                                                                            Source: IHS Component Insight, IHS Inc, 2011
            * 2011 figures are projected annual estimates based on March YTD 2011 actuals and previous annual proportions.

Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.                                                                               48
What’s Being Counterfeited?
     Part Classes with 1.5% or more of total incidents

                                Top Counterfeit Incidents Reported by Part Class
                                       Classes with 1.5% or Greater Proportion of Total Incidents
        Rank                       Minor or Leaf Class                 Major Class          # Incidents   % of Total
           1      Operational Amplifier                       ANALOG IC                        194          6.0%
           2      Programmable ROM                            MEMORY IC                        176          5.5%
           3      Microcontroller                             MICROPROCESSOR IC                157          4.9%
           4      Static RAM                                  MEMORY IC                        143          4.5%
           5      Programmable Logic Device                   PROG LOGIC IC                    140          4.4%
           6      FET General Purpose Power                   TRANSISTOR                       131          4.1%
           7      Field Programmable Gate Array               PROG LOGIC IC                    109          3.4%
           8      Line Driver or Receiver                     INTERFACE IC                     100          3.1%
           9      Analog to Digital Converter                 ANALOG IC                         96          3.0%
          10      Switching Regulator or Controller           LINEAR REGULATOR                  92          2.9%
          11      Power Management Circuit                    LINEAR REGULATOR                  80          2.5%
          12      Peripheral Driver                           INTERFACE IC                      60          1.9%
          13      Digital to Analog Converter                 ANALOG IC                         57          1.8%
          14      Ceramic Capacitor                           CAPACITOR                         56          1.7%
          15      Microprocessor                              MICROPROCESSOR IC                 54          1.7%
          16      Dynamic RAM                                 MEMORY IC                         49          1.5%
                                                                                                           52.8%
                                                                                                   Source: IHS Inc, 2011
                           * 2011 figures are factored projected based on March YTD 2011 and previous annual proportions.


49
     Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.                                                                         49
Industry’s Reported Counterfeit Incidents
     ERAI and GIDEP are 2 sources of validated incident reports




                                                      Source: IHS Inc. 2011
50
     Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.                           50
Over 50 counterfeits in the last 14 days!
Shown: ERAI Reported Parts




Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.   51
How Risk Enters Your Supply Chain
Intended and unintended ports of entry for counterfeits


1.          Many unsafe part & supplier “sources”
           • Online Broker Search Engines

           • Maverick procurement methods or spending limits

           • Google

2.          These are counterfeit ports of entry
           • Rapid access to millions of parts

           • Minimal membership requirements

           • Quick & easy access to a large audience of buyers
                                                                         Request for Quote
                                                                              Request for Quote
3.          Are you creating your own shortages?                                Request for Quote
                                                                                                  …
                                                                                                  …
                                                                                                  …
           • Multiple RFQ’s create false demand signals                                           …
                                                                                   Request for Quote


           • Leads to price increases and incentive for counterfeiting



Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.                                                         52
No Supplier is Immune from Risk
Lack of accountability and traceability allows counterfeits to enter


                                                 “It is not uncommon, however,
                                                  for authorized distributors to
                                                  purchase parts outside of the
                                                  OCM supply chain in order to
                                                 fulfill customer requirements –
                                                 58 percent purchase parts from
                                                           other sources.

                                                    Specifically, 47 percent of
                                                 authorized distributors procure
                                                      parts from independent
                                                 distributors, 29 percent procure
                                                  from brokers, and 27 percent
                                                 procure from Internet-exclusive
                                                              sources.”
                                                     Source: U.S. Department of Commerce,
                                                            Office of Technology Evaluation,
                                                             Counterfeit Electronics Survey,
                                                                           November 2009.
                                                                                       53
Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.                                                 53
Best Practices to Avoid Risk
Stay Within Your Trusted Supply Chain


1. Direct from the Factory
2. Approved Vendor / Manufacturer (AVL / AML)
3. Franchised and Authorized Sources
4. Approved Independent Distributors
5. ERAI Members
6. Valid Alternate Parts or Sources
           •             Distributors, Aftermarket Sources
           •             Alternate Parts - Upgrades, Downgrades, Equivalents…
           •             Manufacturers and Products sanctioned by qualifying authorities
                     •            Government QML/QPL



                                                 Contractually define your expectations. Test accordingly.
Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.                                                               54
Congress Investigation Launched
Early in 2011 senators launched the investigation




   “The presence of counterfeit
   electronic parts in the Defense
   Department’s supply chain is a
   growing problem that government
   and industry share a common
   interest in solving.”
                                                  Carl Levin, D-Michigan, and
                                                 Sen. John McCain, R-Arizona
                                                                  March 2011


Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.                                  55
Industry’s Recognized Reports
GIDEP and ERAI are the counterfeit reporting entities


                       Recognized by the G-19    Recognized by U.S. Senate




Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.                               56
IHS + ERAI Workflow
What it looks like to thousands of IHS users




                                         AUTHORIZATION
                                           REQUIRED
                                            AUTHORIZATION
                                              REQUIRED




                ERAI notices                GIDEP notices
Example: Alert to Infineon BTS716G
Customers alerted to counterfeit incident as reported by ERAI



                                                 Alert!




  •Subscribers of IHS 4DOnline BOM Manager, COMET, and Parts Universe have access to
  alerts from ERAI, GIDEP, and other sources.
  •Subscribers to the IHS-ERAI solution provides ERAI membership, giving them access to
  ERAI’s comprehensive market intelligence community, tools, and services.
Example: Infineon BTS716G
Alerts are accessible via the IHS product
Users Seamlessly Navigate to ERAI
IHS customers browse directly from IHS into ERAI products
It Provides Complete Reported Parts Detail
Provides access to ERAI market intelligence
Vet Real Stock from “Available” Parts
It limits risk exposure from fake sources and price games
Ability to Vet the Open Market
Example ERAI Member Details
Ability to Vet Open Market Sources
Qualify your suppliers




                         ASK YOUR SUPPLIERS…
                         Industry Membership and Reporting?
                         Quality System and Processes?
                         Warranty and Insurance?
                         Supplier Qualification and Purchasing Process?
                         Non-Conforming Material Control?
                         Inspection and Test?
                         Efforts made to verify a Parts’ Authenticity before use?
Search and Monitor Supplier Risk
A wide range of incidents pose serious business problems
Example: AAOK Electronics
Past due invoices, wire fraud, faulty product for example…
BOM Risk Analysis & Monitoring
via ERAI BOM Scrubber
BOM Analysis: Risk Identified
File is processed in seconds; can be monitored after
Report and Resolve Incidents
Comprehensive reporting of part and supplier complaints




Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Conclusion – Fight the Fakes
April’s digital edition of Supply & Demand Chain Executive magazine




Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.                        70
Steps to Securing the Supply Chain
With market intelligence from IHS and ERAI



 Establish the Tools, Processes, and People…
           •            Standards and Regulations Management

           •            Technology Value Chain Insight

           •            BOM and Parts Management

           •            Counterfeit Intelligence

 Identify and Mitigate Supply Chain Risks

 Avoid, Detect, and Resolve Counterfeits



Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.                 71
Thank You

Questions?

Rory King, Director Design & Supply Chain, IHS
Rory.King@ihs.com


Glenn Bassett, VP Strategy, Design & Supply Chain, IHS
Glenn.Bassett@ihs.com


Mark Snider, President and Co-Founder, ERAI Inc.
Mark@erai.com




Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.           72

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ERAI Executive Conference Executive Brief - “The Big Picture” of Compliance, Counterfeits, and Continuity: How obsolescence, environmental compliance, and counterfeits are all linked to potential DMSMS, price/availability, design, and supply chain dis

  • 1. The Big Picture End-to-End Supply Chain and Design Capabilities to Mitigate Risk and Enable Performance Rory King, Director Design & Supply Chain, IHS Glenn Bassett, VP Strategy, Design & Supply Chain, IHS Mark Snider, President and Co-Founder, ERAI Inc. April 29, 2011
  • 2. IHS Inc. A Leading Information Provider • Founded in 1959, IHS is a leading source of information and expert analysis in pivotal areas shaping today’s global businesses • Employs 4,400 colleagues in 30 countries who speak 50 different languages • IHS customers include nearly 70% of the US Fortune1000 and 80% of the Global Fortune 500 • Tens of thousands of customers and hundreds of thousands of end- users in over 100 countries • Public (2005) NYSE: IHS • FY10 revenue $ 1,075 million 2
  • 3. Just a few of our clients Thousands of users globally Avid
  • 4. Current Pressures: Counterfeiting a Priority Early in 2011 top senators launched the investigation “The presence of counterfeit electronic parts in the Defense Department’s supply chain is a growing problem that government and industry share a common interest in solving.” Carl Levin, D-Michigan, and Sen. John McCain, R-Arizona March 2011 Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 4
  • 5. Current Pressures: Japan Crisis Japan produces roughly 60% of silicon wafers globally Semiconductor Fabs Silicon Wafer Production 3 1 Aizu Wakamatsu, Fukushima A Shin-Etsu Kamisu, Ibaraki  ON Semiconductor (Logic)  Fujitsu (Analog, Discrete, Memory) B Shin-Etsu Nishigo, Fukushima  Texas Instruments (Analog, Optical) 2 Atsugi, Kanagawa C MEMC Utsunomiya, Tochigi 6  Mitsumi (Analog, Logic) D SUMCO Yonezawa, Yamagata 3 Goshogawara, Aomori  Renesas (Logic) 13 10 9 4 Gunma 11 Display Manufacturing D  ON Semiconductor (Discrete, Logic)  Hitachi Displays 1 Epicenter  Renesas (Analog, Discrete)  Panasonic LCD B 5 Hitachinaka, Ibaraki  Tohoku Pioneer  Renesas (Logic, Micro, Memory) 6 Iwate 4 14 Fukushima  Fujitsu (Micro, Memory) Resins, Films, Chemicals, 12 C  Toshiba (Discrete) Copper Clad Laminate… 5 7 Kofu, Yamanashi 8 A 7  Renesas (Analog, Logic, Micro) 2 Tokyo 8 Miho, Ibaraki  Texas Instruments (Analog, Optical) 9 Miyagi  Fujitsu (Logic, Micro)  Rohm (Discrete, Micro) 10 Sendai, Miyagi  Freescale (Logic) 11 Shiroishi, Miyagi Source – IHS iSuppli  Sony Semiconductor (Logic) 12 Tsukuba, Ibaraki  Rohm (Discrete) 13 Tsuruoka, Yamagata  Renesas (Logic) 14 Utsunomiya, Tochigi  Matushita (Discrete) Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 5
  • 6. Current Pressures: Environmental Compliance Regardless of exemptions these have a ripple effect on materials used Bisphenol-A “BPA Free” Customer RFP China RoHS Full Material Disclosure EU RoHS Recast Energy Priority Declarable Substances List (ASD PDSL) Toxic Substances Control Act (TSCA) Waste Greenpeace Health Canada / Canada’s Chemical SIN List - Substitute It Now! Management Plan EU REACH & SVHC Security US California Proposition 65 Hazardous ISO 14064 GHG Standards DEHP-Free Norway PoHS UN Stockholm Persistent Substances Organic Pollutants (POPS) Air Safety Argentina RoHS Product Content Disclosure EU RoHS and WEEE Thailand’s “RoHS” EU Battery Directive Directives Japan Green ENERGY STAR Carbon Disclosure Project (CDP) Volatile Organic Compounds US FDA Electronic Product Environmental Natural Resources Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI) Assessment Tool (EPEAT) Health PCF - Product Carbon Footprint Conflict Minerals Water Lifecycle Assessment (LCA) EU Medical Device Directive Environmentally Preferred Products (EPP) US EPA Executive Orders Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 6
  • 7. Example: Impact of Environmental Compliance on Through-Life Obsolescence Management Product Lifecycle Stages Maturity Decline Growth Phase-Out Introduction Obsolete The Supply Chain Problem Optimizing supply to meet demand. Business Pressures Influencing Products Products Drivers of innovation and lifecycle decisions. Parts/Materials Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 7
  • 8. Example: RoHS’ Unplanned Lifecycle Impact 2M+ new parts. Major part changes. Cause of over 20% EOL in ‘06-07. End of Life (EOL) Specific to RoHS/Pb-free Environmental Compliance EOL 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Product Change Notices (PCN) Specific to RoHS/Pb-free Environmental Compliance PCN 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 New Product Introductions (NPI ) Specific to RoHS/Pb-free Environm ental Com pliance Market Shift to EU RoHS NPI 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 RoHS in Force July 1, 2006 Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 8
  • 9. Economic Recession Imposed Major Lifecycle Disruptions Gross EOL by MONTH 2008 Gross EOL by YEAR ENDING 2004 - 2009 EOL by MFR due solely to EU REACH SVHC 619 demand/sales forecast. Lehman files Published Chapter 11 206 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Economic Recession and Chemical Restrictions: The two most dominant factors in the 300% increase of End of Life (EOL) for electrical components exiting 2008. Source: IHS Component Insight, 2010 Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 9 4
  • 10. Effect: Material Shortages and Increased Lead Time (among other things…) August 5, 2010 Recession triggered large inventory reductions – primary reduction in non-compliant parts employed by medical device companies Shortages of key electronics components… became pronounced in the first quarter FY10, and continued in the second. General Electric Co. said supply constraints for electronic components used in its healthcare equipment cost the company $50 million in sales for the quarter. Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 10
  • 11. Implication: Rising Lead Time = Key indicator for Increased Counterfeit Activity "They ground aircraft and impact airplane safety.” What do counterfeits do Incidents Continue to Rise Increase warranty/maint. costs 65% Reduce expected product life 64% Inhibit sales / customer satisfaction 62% Add to individual unit costs 51% Increase development time/costs 38% What do counterfeits cause? Product quality/reliability failures 84% Customer returns/recalls 67% Production line stoppages 57% Product launch delays 36% What do counterfeits impact? Damage brand / reputation 71% Product safety / legal liability 55% Expose contractual liability 42% Compromise security 37% “Jeopardize our missions Undermine compliance claims 44% and soldiers safety.” Source: “Benchmarking Counterfeit & Inferior Grade Components”, Supply & Demand Chain Executive, 2009 Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 11 11
  • 12. Correlation: Counterfeits and EOL Obsolescence and allocation pose significant risk Source: IHS Inc. 2011 Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 12
  • 13. Conclusion: RoHS Was Very “Costly” Compliance is really not the issue – Obsolescence risks are… COMPLIANCE (explicit) SUPPLY CHAIN & DESIGN COST Fines, Penalties, Recalls, Data, IT, Supplier Evaluation…. Obsolescence, Supplier Viability, Material Shortages, Continuity Regulatory event = $160M+ government Japanese seizure of 1M+ product units due to high Electronics OEM cadmium concentration levels found in Recall system cables suspected to violate EU law. Design reliability = $1B+ recall logistics, US Consumer warranty extensions, excessive Products OEM rework/repair, while customer loyalty dipped Recall to resolve reliability issues causing hardware failure. Source: UK MOD SUPPLIER/MATERIAL COSTS SAFETY & SECURITY COSTS Price Variance, Manufacturing Processes, Inventory/LTB… Reliability, Tin Whiskers, Counterfeits… Tin Whisker Images Courtesy of the NASA Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. Counterfeits and Inferior Grade Components 13
  • 14. And… RoHS Was Just the Beginning… The discontinuous sustainability and compliance shift Bisphenol-A “BPA Free” China RoHS Customer RFP Conflict Minerals EU RoHS Recast Energy Priority Declarable Substances List (ASD PDSL) Toxic Substances Control Act (TSCA) Waste Health Canada / Canada’s Chemical Greenpeace SIN List - Substitute It Now! Management Plan EU REACH & SVHC Security US California Proposition 65 DEHP-Free Hazardous ISO 14064 GHG Standards Norway PoHS UN Stockholm Persistent Substances Safety Organic Pollutants (POPS) Air Argentina RoHS Product Content Disclosure Thailand’s “RoHS” EU RoHS and WEEE Directives EU Battery Directive Japan Green ENERGY STAR Carbon Disclosure Project (CDP) Volatile Organic Compounds US FDA Electronic Product Environmental Natural Resources Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI) Assessment Tool (EPEAT) Health PCF - Product Carbon Footprint US EPA Executive Orders Water Lifecycle Assessment (LCA) EU Medical Device Directive Environmentally Preferred Products (EPP) Full Material Disclosure Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 14
  • 15. Now… EU REACH is a Huge Deal European Commission roadmap includes 106 priority SVHC by 2012 “Airbus UK’s director of operations and compliance, said the cost of REACH had been evaluated at several million Euro over three years, with provisions up to hundreds of millions of Euro over five years”… “…[He] said there is a level of ambiguity because it will depend ‘on the substances that will finally be added to the candidate list and in Annex XIV’. Airbus UK has set its 2009 REACH budget at some EUR12 million.” Source: “EU and industry REACH different conclusions”, Jane’s, September 2009 15 Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 15
  • 16. Why “Hundreds of Millions” in Risk? Material restrictions change the entire supply and demand picture EU REACH “Chemicals” Sectors Impacted Semiconductors Communications Energy & Utilities “Substances” “Preparations” “Articles” are individual are mixtures any object Electronic Devices chemicals or solutions produced Aerospace & Defense Consumer Goods Imported Manufactured Used Chemical & Process Medical & Healthcare Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 16
  • 17. This is NOT exclusive to Any Industry A typical hospital setting… Deca-BDE? DEHP? Cadmium? Phthalates? Lead? Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 17
  • 18. Medical Products Are Exposed to Risk Complex Regulations  Long Cycles  Major Design & SC Analysis Required Top 2010 environmental compliance 50% + of all redesign and Compliance requires comprehensive drivers include the FDA and EU certification of medical products material composition, supply chain, REACH, RoHS + Recast and MDD. would take more than a year. technical design and lifecycle data. US FDA (e.g. CFR 21) Technical Fit (e.g. Less than 1 Month 4.5% 87.5% EU REACH & SVHC Form, Fit, Function) EU RoHS/WEEE 1 - 3 Months 4.5% Material Disclosure & 79.1% EU Medical Device… Composition EU RoHS Recast / v2 3 - 6 Months 8.0% Compliance Status 77.0% China RoHS 6 - 12 Months 30.7% Health Canada /… Reliability 72.9% RoHS - Other… 12 - 18 Months 20.5% Toxic Substances… Lifecycle Analysis & More than 18 months 31.8% 68.7% Proposition 65… Supply Continuity 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Entering 2010, the top 3 regulatory drivers Figure 2: Redesign or certifying your Figure 3: To evaluate new or existing influencing program / resource allocations? primary product/line would take? parts for material compliance, which factors play a role in part selection? Source: Benchmarking Medical Supply Chains, Supply Source: Survey of 17 of 18 Fortune 1000 Top Source: Live Audience Poll Supply & Demand & Demand Chain Executive, March 2010 (prelim. Medical Products & Equipment companies and Chain Executive Webcast "Redesigning Medical Results) 50+ other manufacturers, “Redesigning Medical Supply Chains" Supply & Demand Chain Supply Chains”, Supply & Demand Chain Executive, Thursday, October 15, 2009 Executive, Thursday, October 15, 2009 Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 18 18
  • 19. The Entire Medical Peer Group is Watching We held a Webcast called “Redesigning Medical Supply Chains” Over $80B in spend among the Fortune 1000… … and only 1 did not join our webcast… Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 19
  • 20. What Steps Can be Taken to Mitigate Risk? Buyer and Supplier must collaborate on regulations, standards, and implementation thereof Airworthy? Regulations Standards Parts 20 Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 20
  • 21. Early Warning System to Avoid Risk Robust supply chain traceability and alerting methods to mitigate risk Challenge Economic downturn… …shortage… …fake parts… Environmental Compliance …mission failure! Establish the Information, Tools, and Processes to Mitigate Risk Qualify Manage Validate Report Redesign + Approve + Avoid + Detect + Resolve + Resupply Establish infrastructure to Update processes, tools, and Validate, sample and test Procedures to notify Maintain controlled mitigate risk through qualified information to avoid components for authenticity. stakeholders, report design/redesign cycles of and approved designs, counterfeit and high risk Quarantine suspected occurrences, and resolve products. Optimize parts, suppliers, & parts. parts. counterfeits. incidents. inventory, and suppliers. Monitor Lifecycles PCN/EOL to Detect Issues Price/Lead Time Counterfeit Incidents End of Life (EOL) Specific to RoHS/Pb-free Environmental Compliance Maturity Decline Growth Phase-Out Introduction Obsolete 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 21
  • 22. 3 Essential Steps We’ll Discuss  Establish the Tools, Processes, and People… • Standards and Regulations Management • Technology Value Chain Insight • BOM and Parts Management • Counterfeit Intelligence  Identify and Mitigate Supply Chain Risks  Avoid, Detect, and Resolve Counterfeits Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 22
  • 23. Best Practice Workflow 1. ESTABLISH THE TOOLS, PROCESSES, AND PEOPLE… Rory King Director, Design & Supply Chain IHS Inc Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 23
  • 24. Standards – A Lead Role in Risk Mitigation SAE AS5553 within IHS Standards Expert 24 Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 24
  • 25. Did You Know-Standards Refer to Standards? SAE AS5553 Standard: Counterfeit Electronic Parts; Avoidance, Detection, Mitigation, and Disposition ANSI EIA MIL-STD Did you know, AS5553 refers to: -20+ primary references -300+ secondary references … a lot of critical information… JEDEC IEC ISO QMS 25 Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 25
  • 26. IHS clients get standards in one place Standards collections, revisions, alerts to updates… 26 Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 26
  • 27. Same with Technology Market Intelligence IHS iSuppli iLibrary for clients Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 27
  • 28. Market, Commodity, and Manufacturing Insight IHS iSuppli provides technology value chain market intelligence Source: IHS iSuppli 2011 – Do Not Use or Reproduce Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 28
  • 29. Component Supply Health Clients gain a view into health of critical components Source: IHS iSuppli April 2011 Component Health Watch (CHW) Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 29
  • 30. BEST PRACTICE WORKFLOW 2. IDENTIFY AND MITIGATE SUPPLY CHAIN RISKS Glenn Bassett VP Strategic Business Development IHS Design & Supply Chain Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 30
  • 31. Risk Identification • Some examples… • Predicted Obsolescence • i.e. Proactive Avoiding of Design Risk • Component Health Risk • i.e. Rising Costs and Lead Times, Allocation • Lifecycle Event Risk • i.e. EOL / Lifebuy Notice • Supply Chain Failure • i.e. Potential Impact of Japan Crisis • Counterfeit Incident • i.e. Suspected Counterfeit or High Risk Part Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 31
  • 32. Moving From Risk Identification To Mitigation • From Manufacturer & Commodity To End Units Impacted • Identifying Components In My Business • Linking Down To BOMS & End Devices • Prioritize Key Components/BOMS/Devices • Identifying Sources Of Inventory • Leverage Alternate Sourcing Tools • Identify Mitigation Plan Working With Suppliers • Develop Counterfeit Mitigation Plan • Longer Term Impacts Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 32
  • 33. Moving From Manufacturer/Commodity To MPN • Leverage Reference Database To Identify MPNs At Risk • Analyze AVL For Linkage In Risk Components Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 33
  • 34. Moving From MPN To BOM • Leveraging BOM Tools In PLM, PDM, Or In This Case IHS BOM Manager Helps Move From MPN To Affected BOM • With BOM Identified, End Unit Exposure Can Be Correlated Shown: IHS BOM Manager Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 34
  • 35. Prioritize Key Components, BOM, Devices NPI Production Imminent Proto-type / Pre-Production In-production with near-term delivery • Prioritize End Unit Exposure • Calculate Time Horizon / Revenue Risk Profile • Prioritize Through End Unit Back To Component Calculate Inventory Need & Priority Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 35
  • 36. Where can I get this? Where Does Current Inventory Exist? • Direct from the Factory • Approved Vendor / Manufacturer (AVL / AML) • Franchised and Authorized Sources • Approved Independent Distributors Shown: IHS BOM Manager • ERAI Members • Valid Alternate Parts or Sources Shown: IHS-ERAI Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 36
  • 37. What alternatives exist? Equivalent Parts? Upgrades? Downgrades? Functionally equivalent options? Are they ROHS Compliant? Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 37
  • 38. Choices • AVL Or Alternate • Authorized Channel Inventory • Secondary Market • Inventory Investment • Bridge Buy • Making Bets On Near Term Recovery Or Redesign • Lifetime Buy • Mitigating Greater Risk Time Horizon Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 38
  • 39. Counterfeit Incident Tracking ERAI and GIDEP are 2 sources of validated incident reports Of reports made, 9% came from GIDEP and 91% from ERAI during the period shown. Source: IHS Inc. 2011 Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 39
  • 40. The Last 6-Years of Component EOL 2009 – Economic Events Drive EOL: What About 2012 Manufacturer-Issued End of Life (EOL) Distribution of EOL by Dominant Business Driver Technology 100% < 25% of Change 90% 80% Demand-Side Drivers ~90% of EOL in 2009 70% Unspecified / Administrative 60% Supply Side Organizational 50% Innovation, Technology, and Manufacturing 40% Environmental Compliance Demand-Side 30% 20% Impact of RoHS 10% Compliance 0% 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 40
  • 41. Moving From Risk Identification To Mitigation • From Manufacturer & Commodity To End Units Impacted • Identifying Components In My Business • Linking Down To BOMS & End Devices • Prioritize Key Components/BOMS/Devices • Identifying Sources Of Inventory • Leverage Alternate Sourcing Tools • Identify Mitigation Plan Working With Suppliers • Develop Counterfeit Mitigation Plan • Longer Term Impacts Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 41
  • 42. Best Practice Workflow 3. AVOID, DETECT, AND RESOLVE COUNTERFEITS Mark Snider President, ERAI Inc. Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 42
  • 43. Our Commitment is Personal Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 43
  • 44. ERAI Inc. A World of Information at Your Fingertips • Founded in 1995, ERAI is an information services organization that monitors, investigates and reports issues affecting the global hi-tech electronics supply chain. • ERAI provides tools to mitigate risks on substandard parts, counterfeit parts, vendors and even customers. • Subscribers include OEMs, CMs, Distributors, OCMs, government agencies and industry associations. • Founding participant in SAE International G-19 Counterfeit Electronic Components Committee and several sub-groups Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 44
  • 45. Who ERAI is not… • ERAI is not a distributor or parts broker • ERAI is not a sourcebook or online catalog • ERAI is not a component manufacturer or OEM • ERAI is not a test lab or inspection service • ERAI is not a quality We do not buy, sell, or test parts! standards organization Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 45
  • 46. Exclusive Partner to Only IHS One provider of counterfeit alerts and supply chain risk mitigation 46 Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 46
  • 47. Why? IHS Clients Thousands of users globally Avid Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 47
  • 48. What’s Being Counterfeited? Source: ERAI Inc, 2004 to YTD Feb 2011 Source: IHS Component Insight, IHS Inc, 2011 * 2011 figures are projected annual estimates based on March YTD 2011 actuals and previous annual proportions. Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 48
  • 49. What’s Being Counterfeited? Part Classes with 1.5% or more of total incidents Top Counterfeit Incidents Reported by Part Class Classes with 1.5% or Greater Proportion of Total Incidents Rank Minor or Leaf Class Major Class # Incidents % of Total 1 Operational Amplifier ANALOG IC 194 6.0% 2 Programmable ROM MEMORY IC 176 5.5% 3 Microcontroller MICROPROCESSOR IC 157 4.9% 4 Static RAM MEMORY IC 143 4.5% 5 Programmable Logic Device PROG LOGIC IC 140 4.4% 6 FET General Purpose Power TRANSISTOR 131 4.1% 7 Field Programmable Gate Array PROG LOGIC IC 109 3.4% 8 Line Driver or Receiver INTERFACE IC 100 3.1% 9 Analog to Digital Converter ANALOG IC 96 3.0% 10 Switching Regulator or Controller LINEAR REGULATOR 92 2.9% 11 Power Management Circuit LINEAR REGULATOR 80 2.5% 12 Peripheral Driver INTERFACE IC 60 1.9% 13 Digital to Analog Converter ANALOG IC 57 1.8% 14 Ceramic Capacitor CAPACITOR 56 1.7% 15 Microprocessor MICROPROCESSOR IC 54 1.7% 16 Dynamic RAM MEMORY IC 49 1.5% 52.8% Source: IHS Inc, 2011 * 2011 figures are factored projected based on March YTD 2011 and previous annual proportions. 49 Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 49
  • 50. Industry’s Reported Counterfeit Incidents ERAI and GIDEP are 2 sources of validated incident reports Source: IHS Inc. 2011 50 Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 50
  • 51. Over 50 counterfeits in the last 14 days! Shown: ERAI Reported Parts Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 51
  • 52. How Risk Enters Your Supply Chain Intended and unintended ports of entry for counterfeits 1. Many unsafe part & supplier “sources” • Online Broker Search Engines • Maverick procurement methods or spending limits • Google 2. These are counterfeit ports of entry • Rapid access to millions of parts • Minimal membership requirements • Quick & easy access to a large audience of buyers Request for Quote Request for Quote 3. Are you creating your own shortages? Request for Quote … … … • Multiple RFQ’s create false demand signals … Request for Quote • Leads to price increases and incentive for counterfeiting Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 52
  • 53. No Supplier is Immune from Risk Lack of accountability and traceability allows counterfeits to enter “It is not uncommon, however, for authorized distributors to purchase parts outside of the OCM supply chain in order to fulfill customer requirements – 58 percent purchase parts from other sources. Specifically, 47 percent of authorized distributors procure parts from independent distributors, 29 percent procure from brokers, and 27 percent procure from Internet-exclusive sources.” Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Office of Technology Evaluation, Counterfeit Electronics Survey, November 2009. 53 Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 53
  • 54. Best Practices to Avoid Risk Stay Within Your Trusted Supply Chain 1. Direct from the Factory 2. Approved Vendor / Manufacturer (AVL / AML) 3. Franchised and Authorized Sources 4. Approved Independent Distributors 5. ERAI Members 6. Valid Alternate Parts or Sources • Distributors, Aftermarket Sources • Alternate Parts - Upgrades, Downgrades, Equivalents… • Manufacturers and Products sanctioned by qualifying authorities • Government QML/QPL Contractually define your expectations. Test accordingly. Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 54
  • 55. Congress Investigation Launched Early in 2011 senators launched the investigation “The presence of counterfeit electronic parts in the Defense Department’s supply chain is a growing problem that government and industry share a common interest in solving.” Carl Levin, D-Michigan, and Sen. John McCain, R-Arizona March 2011 Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 55
  • 56. Industry’s Recognized Reports GIDEP and ERAI are the counterfeit reporting entities Recognized by the G-19 Recognized by U.S. Senate Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 56
  • 57. IHS + ERAI Workflow What it looks like to thousands of IHS users AUTHORIZATION REQUIRED AUTHORIZATION REQUIRED ERAI notices GIDEP notices
  • 58. Example: Alert to Infineon BTS716G Customers alerted to counterfeit incident as reported by ERAI Alert! •Subscribers of IHS 4DOnline BOM Manager, COMET, and Parts Universe have access to alerts from ERAI, GIDEP, and other sources. •Subscribers to the IHS-ERAI solution provides ERAI membership, giving them access to ERAI’s comprehensive market intelligence community, tools, and services.
  • 59. Example: Infineon BTS716G Alerts are accessible via the IHS product
  • 60. Users Seamlessly Navigate to ERAI IHS customers browse directly from IHS into ERAI products
  • 61. It Provides Complete Reported Parts Detail Provides access to ERAI market intelligence
  • 62. Vet Real Stock from “Available” Parts It limits risk exposure from fake sources and price games
  • 63. Ability to Vet the Open Market Example ERAI Member Details
  • 64. Ability to Vet Open Market Sources Qualify your suppliers ASK YOUR SUPPLIERS… Industry Membership and Reporting? Quality System and Processes? Warranty and Insurance? Supplier Qualification and Purchasing Process? Non-Conforming Material Control? Inspection and Test? Efforts made to verify a Parts’ Authenticity before use?
  • 65. Search and Monitor Supplier Risk A wide range of incidents pose serious business problems
  • 66. Example: AAOK Electronics Past due invoices, wire fraud, faulty product for example…
  • 67. BOM Risk Analysis & Monitoring via ERAI BOM Scrubber
  • 68. BOM Analysis: Risk Identified File is processed in seconds; can be monitored after
  • 69. Report and Resolve Incidents Comprehensive reporting of part and supplier complaints Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.
  • 70. Conclusion – Fight the Fakes April’s digital edition of Supply & Demand Chain Executive magazine Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 70
  • 71. Steps to Securing the Supply Chain With market intelligence from IHS and ERAI  Establish the Tools, Processes, and People… • Standards and Regulations Management • Technology Value Chain Insight • BOM and Parts Management • Counterfeit Intelligence  Identify and Mitigate Supply Chain Risks  Avoid, Detect, and Resolve Counterfeits Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 71
  • 72. Thank You Questions? Rory King, Director Design & Supply Chain, IHS Rory.King@ihs.com Glenn Bassett, VP Strategy, Design & Supply Chain, IHS Glenn.Bassett@ihs.com Mark Snider, President and Co-Founder, ERAI Inc. Mark@erai.com Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 72