This document analyzes epidemiology and pandemic-related publications from 1980 to 2010 in PubMed. It finds that such publications have increased by 1190% absolutely and 289% relatively over this period. Infectious disease epidemics and pandemics accounted for over two-thirds of publications and grew the most at 1151% and 277% respectively. The proportion of these publications indexed with the MeSH term "Disease Outbreaks" also increased substantially over time, indicating greater indexing of epidemics and pandemics as outbreaks.

1. Elise Paradis PhD; Ayelet Kuper MD, DPhil; Niall Byrne, PhD
The Wilson Centre, University of Toronto Faculty of Medicine

2. EPIDEMIC

3. PANDEMIC

4. HIV

6. SARS

7. EPIDEMICS & PANDEMICS
1980 - 2010

8. PUBMED QUERY A
epidemic*[Title/Abstract] OR
pandemic*[Title/Abstract]
from 1980 to 2010

9. Epi
+
Pan
n=49,493

10. PUBMED QUERY B
“Disease Outbreaks”[MeSH]
from 1980 to 2010

11. DO
MeSH
n=49,493

12. Epi
DO
+
MeSH
Pan
n=49,493; overlap=15,434

13. 595 keywords generated
from title list

14. TITLES CODED USING A
PYTHON SCRIPT
Yield: 96.0% coverage
n=47,513

15. INFECTIOUS NON-
INDETERMINATE
INFECTIOUS
68.7% 29.3% 9.3%

16. CHANGE

17. ( 1 ) E X PA N S I O N

18. 6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
No of Epi+Pan Publications in PubMed

19. 1190%
Absolute Growth

20. 0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
Epi+Pan Publications as % of PubMed

21. 289%
Relative Growth

22. (2) TYPES OF
EPIDEMICS

23. 0.6
0.5
Epidemics and Pandemics
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31
Epi+Pan type as % of PubMed

24. 0.6
0.5
Infec:ous Epidemics and Pandemics
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
Epi+Pan type as % of PubMed

25. 0.6
0.5
Infec:ous Not Infec:ous Epidemics and Pandemics
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
Epi+Pan type as % of PubMed

26. INFECTIOUS NOT INFECT
1,151% 1,903%
Absolute Growth Absolute Growth
277% 504%
Relative Growth Relative Growth

27. (3) % “MESHED” AS
DISEASE OUTBREAKS

28. DO
MeSH
n=49,493

29. 0.60
0.50
0.40
0.30
0.20
0.10
0.00
1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
DO MeSH Publications as % of PubMed

30. Epi
DO
+
MeSH
Pan
Overlap=15,434

31. 0.6
0.5
Epi‐ and Pandemic Ar:cles that are also DOutbreaks MeSHed as %PubMed DOutbreak MeSH as %PubMed
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
DO MeSH and Epi+Pan as % of PubMed

32. DO MeSH Epi+Pan
654% 998%
Absolute Growth Absolute Growth
125% 231%
Relative Growth Relative Growth

33. 0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.0
1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
DO MeSH as % of Epi+Pan Articles

34. -15% growth

35. EPIDEMIC

36. PANDEMIC

37. HIV

39. SARS

40. OBESITY

41. Teenage pregnancy
TEEN PREGNANCY

42. LONELINESS

43. DEMAND ACTION

44. Medical Moral

45. Elise Paradis PhD; Ayelet Kuper MD, DPhil; Niall Byrne, PhD
The Wilson Centre, University of Toronto Faculty of Medicine