More Related Content More from Gale Pooley (20) 4. Expect bad news
Better and Bad
Good news it not news
Gradual improvement is not news
More news does not equal more suffering
Beware of rosy pasts
How to Control the
Negativity Instinct
17. Aluminum
Banana
Barley
Beef
Chicken
Coal
Cocoa
Coconut oil and copra
Coffee
Copper
Cotton
Crude oil, average
Fertilizer
Fish meal
Gold
Groundnuts and oil
Hides
Iron ore
Lamb
Lead
Liquefied natural gas
Logs
Maize
Natural gas, Europe
Natural gas, U.S.
Nickel
Orange
Palm oil
Platinum
Plywood
Pork
Pulpwood
Rapeseed oil
Rice
Rubber
Salmon
Sawnwood
Shrimps, Mexican
Silver
Sorghum
Soybeans, soybean oil and
meal
Sugar
Sunflower oil
Tea
Tin
Tobacco
Uranium
Wheat
Wool
Zinc
Commodities
25. y = -11.722x + 594.52
R² = 0.63175
$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
$700
$800
$900
Wheat $/mt
Time Price
Time Price Linear (Time Price)
Nominal Deflator Real Hourly Time Index
Year Price 2017 =100 Price Rate Price 2017=100
1980 $172.73 39.13 $441.44 $3.08 143.1 440.2
1981 $174.96 42.78 $408.99 $2.85 143.5 441.4
1982 $160.36 45.43 $352.96 $2.62 134.9 414.8
1983 $157.42 47.21 $333.42 $2.53 131.5 404.6
1984 $152.33 48.90 $311.53 $2.50 124.6 383.1
1985 $135.83 50.47 $269.14 $2.51 107.3 329.9
1986 $114.92 51.48 $223.23 $2.87 77.9 239.6
1987 $112.90 52.79 $213.85 $3.13 68.3 210.2
1988 $145.20 54.64 $265.75 $3.33 79.7 245.3
1989 $169.24 56.77 $298.11 $3.31 89.9 276.6
1990 $135.52 58.87 $230.20 $3.54 65.0 200.1
1991 $128.67 60.83 $211.53 $3.57 59.2 182.0
1992 $151.20 62.21 $243.04 $3.66 66.4 204.2
1993 $140.24 63.69 $220.18 $3.59 61.4 188.7
1994 $149.73 65.05 $230.18 $3.72 61.8 190.2
1995 $176.98 66.41 $266.50 $4.00 66.6 204.9
1996 $207.60 67.62 $306.99 $3.96 77.4 238.2
1997 $159.48 68.78 $231.87 $3.83 60.5 186.0
1998 $126.13 69.52 $181.43 $3.74 48.6 149.3
1999 $112.04 70.59 $158.73 $3.77 42.1 129.4
2000 $114.09 72.19 $158.04 $3.77 42.0 129.1
2001 $126.81 73.84 $171.73 $3.62 47.5 146.0
2002 $148.08 74.98 $197.50 $3.66 54.0 166.0
2003 $146.14 76.47 $191.11 $3.99 48.0 147.5
2004 $156.88 78.57 $199.68 $4.32 46.2 142.1
2005 $152.35 81.10 $187.86 $4.49 41.9 128.8
2006 $192.04 83.59 $229.74 $4.66 49.3 151.5
2007 $255.21 85.81 $297.40 $5.06 58.8 180.7
2008 $326.03 87.51 $372.58 $5.39 69.2 212.7
2009 $224.07 88.17 $254.14 $5.02 50.7 155.8
2010 $223.58 89.24 $250.53 $5.38 46.6 143.3
2011 $316.26 91.09 $347.21 $5.79 59.9 184.3
2012 $313.24 92.76 $337.68 $5.75 58.7 180.5
2013 $312.25 94.26 $331.26 $5.76 57.5 176.8
2014 $284.89 95.95 $296.91 $5.75 51.6 158.7
2015 $204.45 96.99 $210.79 $5.33 39.6 121.6
2016 $166.63 98.23 $169.64 $5.29 32.1 98.7
2017 $174.20 100.00 $174.20 $5.36 32.5 100.0
Percentage Change Since 1980: -77.3%
Wheat $/mt
26. Simon Index
Time Price Time Price
Commodity Prices, 1980-2017 at at
Adjusted for Inflation $3.08 $5.36
and Hourly Income Growth Real Price Real Price Per Hour Per Hour
1980 2017 1980 2017
Aluminum $/mt 4,536.06 1,967.65 -56.6% 1,470.64 367.28 -75.0% 4.00
Banana $/kg 0.97 1.08 11.3% 0.31 0.20 -35.9% 1.56
Barley $/mt 199.93 97.64 -51.2% 64.82 18.23 -71.9% 3.56
Beef $/kg 7.05 4.22 -40.1% 2.29 0.79 -65.5% 2.90
Chicken $/kg 1.94 2.12 9.3% 0.63 0.40 -37.1% 1.59
Coal $/mt 102.58 88.42 -13.8% 33.26 16.50 -50.4% 2.02
Cocoa $/kg 6.64 2.03 -69.4% 2.15 0.38 -82.4% 5.69
Coconut oil and copra $/mt 1,439.55 1,334.00 -7.3% 466.72 249.00 -46.6% 1.87
Coffee $/kg 8.57 2.77 -67.7% 2.78 0.52 -81.4% 5.38
Copper $/mt 5,576.67 6,169.94 10.6% 1,808.02 1,151.68 -36.3% 1.57
Cotton $/kg 5.26 1.84 -65.0% 1.71 0.34 -79.9% 4.97
Crude oil, average $/bbl 94.23 52.81 -44.0% 30.55 9.86 -67.7% 3.10
Fertilizer $/mt 386.91 231.52 -40.2% 125.44 43.22 -65.5% 2.90
Fish meal $/mt 1,289.00 1,365.00 5.9% 417.91 254.79 -39.0% 1.64
Gold $/troy oz 1,553.48 1,257.56 -19.0% 503.66 234.74 -53.4% 2.15
Groundnuts and Groundnut oil $/mt 2,677.48 1,478.00 -44.8% 868.07 275.88 -68.2% 3.15
Hides ¢/lb 1.51 0.75 -50.3% 0.49 0.14 -71.4% 3.50
Iron ore $/dmtu 71.79 71.76 0.0% 23.28 13.39 -42.5% 1.74
Lamb $/kg 7.36 5.42 -26.4% 2.39 1.01 -57.6% 2.36
Lead $/mt 2,314.79 2,314.67 0.0% 750.48 432.06 -42.4% 1.74
Liquefied natural gas $/mmbtu 14.57 8.04 -44.8% 4.72 1.50 -68.2% 3.15
Logs $/cubic mt 571.45 330.33 -42.2% 185.27 61.66 -66.7% 3.00
Maize $/mt 320.12 154.53 -51.7% 103.79 28.84 -72.2% 3.60
Natural gas, Europe $/mmbtu 10.78 5.65 -47.6% 3.50 1.05 -69.8% 3.32
Natural gas, U.S. $/mmbtu 4.06 2.96 -27.2% 1.32 0.55 -58.1% 2.38
Nickel $/mt 16,659.50 10,409.64 -37.5% 5,401.19 1,943.07 -64.0% 2.78
Orange $/kg 1.02 0.81 -20.6% 0.33 0.15 -54.3% 2.19
Palm oil $/mt 1,491.71 715.00 -52.1% 483.63 133.46 -72.4% 3.62
Platinum $/troy oz 1,735.55 948.45 -45.4% 562.68 177.04 -68.5% 3.18
Plywood ¢/sheet 699.69 486.86 -30.4% 226.85 90.88 -59.9% 2.50
Pork $/lb 1.84 0.61 -66.8% 0.60 0.11 -80.9% 5.24
Pulpwood $/mt 1,371.21 875.00 -36.2% 444.56 163.33 -63.3% 2.72
Rapeseed oil $/mt 1,511.90 917.37 -39.3% 490.17 171.24 -65.1% 2.86
Rice $/mt 1,049.71 398.92 -62.0% 340.33 74.46 -78.1% 4.57
Rubber $/kg 3.63 2.00 -44.9% 1.18 0.37 -68.3% 3.15
Salmon $/kg 19.05 8.64 -54.6% 6.18 1.61 -73.9% 3.83
Sawnwood $/cubic mt 1,012.30 659.90 -34.8% 328.20 123.18 -62.5% 2.66
Shrimps, Mexican $/kg 25.91 13.32 -48.6% 8.40 2.49 -70.4% 3.38
Silver $/troy oz 53.16 17.07 -67.9% 17.23 3.19 -81.5% 5.41
Sorghum $/mt 329.32 162.88 -50.5% 106.77 30.40 -71.5% 3.51
Soybeans, soybean oil and meal $/mt 985.00 535.00 -45.7% 319.35 99.86 -68.7% 3.20
Sugar $/kg 1.52 0.45 -70.4% 0.49 0.08 -83.0% 5.87
Sunflower Oil $/mt 1,421.00 952.00 -33.0% 460.70 177.70 -61.4% 2.59
Tea $/kg 4.24 3.10 -26.9% 1.37 0.58 -57.9% 2.38
Tin $/mt 42,870.82 20,061.17 -53.2% 13,899.18 3,744.62 -73.1% 3.71
Tobacco $/mt 5,816.31 4,703.29 -19.1% 1,885.71 877.92 -53.4% 2.15
Uranium $/lb 102.23 22.09 -78.4% 33.14 4.12 -87.6% 8.04
Wheat $/mt 441.44 174.20 -60.5% 143.12 32.52 -77.3% 4.40
Wool ¢/kg 1,581.18 1,158.85 -26.7% 512.64 216.31 -57.8% 2.37
Zinc $/mt 1,945.42 2,890.87 48.6% 630.73 539.61 -14.4% 1.17
Average -36.6% -63.5% 2.74
Percentage
Change
adjusted for
Price Level
Percentage
Change
adjusted for
Price Level and
Income Growth
Time Price
Multiplier
1980 = 1
