Session 6, International Forum for Coal Regions in Transition

1. International Forum For Coal Regions in
Transition
26 October 2023, Berlin
by: Nathi Nkonyane

2. Contents
• Background
• Coal Sector
• Economic Diversification opportunities

3. Click to edit Master title style
Background

4. Background
South Africa has population of 60 million
people in 2023
The area of South Africa is 1, 221, 037 𝑘𝑚2
With 0.380% water coverage
These two points are extremely important
when articulating the Just Transition in the
South African context as South Africa is a
water scarce country with vast lands.
An estimated 30 billion tons of reserves SA
has 200 years of coal availability.
Mpumalanga hosts 12 of 15 coal-fired power
stations in SA
South Africa-Mpumalanga Coal Region

5. .
Socio Economic profile - Mpumalanga in Numbers
% BASIC ACCESS 2016
In 2016, The GDP of Mpumalanga was 222.2 Billion (at 2010 constant prices) contributing approximately 7.20% to the national GDP. Mpumalanga is ranked fifth nationally
51% Female
49% Male
Mpumalanga at a Glance

6. Structure of the Mpumalanga economy in a
nutshell
6

7. 2011
The phrase “just transition”
first entered the lexicon of
South African policy in 2011,
when the government
published its National
Climate Change Response
White Paper
2012 onwards
just transition was
mentioned in various policy
documents by government
agencies and sectors
2018
National Employment
Vulnerability Assessment
conducted (focused on coal,
petroleum, transport, tourism
and agriculture value chain)
2019
The government passed the
Integrated Resource Plan
(IRP2019), which added more
renewable energy capacity to the
proposed energy mix through
2030 and commits to
decommissioning most coal
plants by 2050
2020
South Africa’s cabinet
approved the PCC’s
formation in September
2020. South Africa develops
its first Low Emissions
Development Strategy under
the Paris Agreement
2021
Government embraces PCC
recommendations and
submits a significantly
strengthened NDC to the
UNFCCC, affirming the work
done by the Commission
2022
National Infrastructure Plan
2050, which was approved
in March 2022
PCC releases a draft
framework to guide the just
transition in South Africa,
standing on the shoulders of
years of research and
consultation processes
2022
PCC releases a draft
framework to guide the just
transition in South Africa,
standing on the shoulders of
years of research and
consultation processes
2023
Just Energy Transition –
Implementation plan
developed (focuses on
RE+grid expansion, Electric
vehicles, Hydrogen economy
South Africa’s Just Transition milestones

8. Distributive justice
Equitable distribution of risks and
responsibilities addressing direct
impacts of transition
Outcomes
Increased resilience of workers and
communities to economic shifts
and physical impacts
Higher share of working-age
population in employment, in low
carbon industries, with better
quality of work & stable or
increasing incomes
Restorative justice
Redress of historical damages in
order to rectify or ameliorate
situations
Outcomes
Lower Gini co-efficient & qualitative
improvement in income equality
More equitable ownership of
productive assets
Less land degradation, improved air
quality, energy access, water
quality and access
Procedural justice
Empowering workers, communities
& small businesses so that they can
define their own development
Outcomes
Inclusive and participatory
decision-making structures
National, regional and local
processes that allow people to take
charge of their economic destiny
Responsive and effective state
Principles of a Just Transition in South Africa

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Coal Sector

10. Background
South Africa’s Coal Mines
Source: Mineral Council of South Africa 2022
Main GHG contributors
-coal-to-liquids (CTL) industry, (35%
of the country’s liquid fuel)
-Coal fired Power stations

11. South Africa’s Carbon Content of Electricity
77% of SA’s greenhouse gas emissions
are from energy – either electricity or
transport
86% of SA’s electricity is from coal
fired power stations
Carbon intensity of SA’s exports is
twice that of China & 75% more than
India
SA trade partners will make increasing
efforts to stop carbon leakage
SA needs to be proactive to limit
economic risk and manage social
consequences of transition
11
Source: Carbon Brief, 2018

12. Coal-based CO2 emissions per person in South Africa,
China and the world in tonnes, 1905 to 2019
12

13. Background
South Africa’s coal value chain
Coal mining
Electricity
)
Eskom
(
Municipalities
Petro -
chemicals
)
Sasol
(
Liquid fuels
Downstream
chemicals
( largely for
plastics)
Aluminium
and
ferroalloys
Industrial &
commercial
sites &
households
Regional
exports
( mostly Mozal )
Metals exports
Domestic
metal
products and
machinery
producers
Coal exports
Chemicals
exports
Transport
( conveyor
belt, road
and rail
freight)
Dedicated
rail and
port
facilities
Business and
households
Other energy
intensive
users (mostly
other metals)
Source: TIPS 2022

14. South Africa’s Coal Sales
14
Source: Quantec, 2021

15. South Africa's largest coal operators
15
Source: Quantec, 2021
19
10
-
13
7
9
-
13
24
14
29
35
100 %
44 %
0 %
48 %
%
19 20 %
0 %
10 %
20 %
%
30
40 %
%
50
%
60
%
70
%
80
%
90
%
100
-
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Anglo Coal (a) South32 (b) Seriti Glencore Sasol Exxaro
Domestic
Export Percentage Export

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Economic Diversification

17. Study context
▪ IRP 2019:
– By 2030, 10 500 MW of electricity from coal will be decommissioned by Eskom
▪ A revised plant end of design life plan for Komati, Hendrina and Grootvlei:
Komati PS Hendrina PS
Grootvlei PS
Units: 4
(beginning 2020)
MW
Capacity:
450 MW MW
Units: 6
(beginning 2020)
Capacity:
1 135 MW
Units: 3
(beginning 2020)
MW
Capacity:
570 MW
2022 2025 2026
Shutdown
dates:
1
Coal Power Station shut down schedule

18. 18
Illustrative cable cross-section
Copper – 60%
Steel – 20%
PVC – 20%
Cabling has 3 materials
fit for recycling…
…all three have industrial development potential, with several beneficiation
opportunities relevant to South Africa's Just Energy Transition
3
2
1
3
2
1 Cable
copper
Cable
steel
Cable
PVC
Copper
granules
Steel
cabling
PVC
granules
Copper
products
Repurposed
steel
Agrivoltaic
planters
1. Coal Power Station shut down schedule
Industrial development

19. Opportunities in Mpumalanga
Overview: GreenCape
• Solar
• Wind
• Biomass
• Solid Waste to Energy
• Biogas
• Natural gas
• Battery storage
• Hydrogen
Renewable
Energy
• Support for sustainable small-scale and community farming
• Training in sustainable agricultural practices
• Development of agriculture industry outside of established farming
based on Agri-hubs
• Agro-forestry
• Tourism
Sustainable
Smart
Agriculture
• Land rehabilitation for economic activities
• Water reclamation and re-use
• Fly-Ash (Gysium bricks, paint, tar etc)
• Waste cycling
• Invasive species(charcoal etc)
• Plastic and rubber pyrolysis
Circular
Economy
➢ Utility and small scale
renewable energy
projects
➢ Upstream manufacturing
➢ Associated Industries
➢ Secure industry agreements
through industrial symbiosis
and business engagements
➢ SMME development support
➢ Environmental friendly
Agriculture and Agricultural
processing and related
industries

20. Opportnuties in Mpumalanga
Overview: GreenCape
• Education
• Skills development
• Re-skilling
• Green Citizenship
Soft
Infrastructure
• Transport and logistics
• Repurposing of defunct strategic asserts
• Smart Cities (Green Buildings)
• Water repurposing projects
• Industrialization (Industries of Future)
➢ Infrastructure to support
and maintain the local
industry
➢ Hard infrastructure to facilitate
local industry
Hard
Infrastructure

21. Conclusion
• International Partnerships
• Focus funding on implementation/ execution of projects
not technical support

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Conclusion

23. THANK YOU
DR. THEMBAKAZI MALI
(SASOL)
DR. BONGIWE MCATA
(UNIVERSITY OF
MPUMALANGA)
MR. NATHANIEL SEBITSO
(MPUMALANGA
GOVERNMENT)
MR. NKOSINATHI NKONYANE
(CHIEF EXECUTIVE (MGCA)
DR RETHABILE
MELAMU
SAPVIA
MS LAUREN HERMANUS
HOW WE ADAPT
https://mpumalangagreencluster.co.za