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Economics
and the Real World
ANDREW M. KAMARCK
®
University of Pennsylvania Press
Philadelphia

Published 1983 in the United States by the University of
Pennsylvania Press
First published 1983 in Great Britain by Basil Blackwell
Copyright © 1983 by the University of Pennsylvania Press
All rights reserved
Library of Congress Cataloging in Publication Data
Kamarck, Andrew M.
Economics and the real world.
Bibliography: p.
1. Economics. I. Title.
HB71.K275 1983 330 83-10331
ISBN 0-8122-7902-6
Printed and bound in Great Britain

Contents
Preface vii
1 Introduction 1
2 Problems of Measurement in General 8
3 Special Sources of Inaccuracy in Economic Data 12
4 Loose Concepts and Economics 21
5 National Income and Product Accounts 42
6 Balance of Payments 63
7 Macroeconomic Models 69
8 Microeconomics 80
9 Welfare Economics and Cost - Benefit Analysis 98
10 'Capital' and 'Investment' in Less Developed
Countries 106
11 Operational Conclusions 117
Technical Appendix: Significant Digits 134
Bibliography 141
Index 157

Preface
[It is my]. . .belief that in the present period economics as a practi-
cal art is ahead of economics as a science. At this stage most of us
prefer the advising of government economic policies entrusted to the
experienced intuitive economist.
Koopmans, Three Essays
My work on this subject was provoked by certain aspects of my ex-
perience over the last 40 years. I learned that the economic analysis
that is actually useful for guiding government decisions is fairly
basic but highly effective when supplemented by good judgement
derived from experience of how human beings and institutions
react. I also found, as have many others, that in the last generation
many young economists, fresh out of the university, are ill-
equipped to confront the economic problems of the real world. The
brightest of these, if they wish to be effective, learn to discard as
useless or misleading much of what they have been rewarded in the
university for learning. Some even become inclined to go too far
and discard all they have learned as useless baggage.
The second main element stimulating this work was the failure of
the attempt by Dr Virgilio Barco, one of the ablest of the World
Bank's executive directors, to get the Bank to abandon spurious
precision — for example, showing a country's GNP per capita to
the nearest dollar when it was obvious that the margin of error in
calculating GNP was very large. (The highly useful World Bank's
World Tables is full of examples of this spurious precision. In the
USA, the Bureau of the Census reports that the 1970 population
census had an error of around 2Vi per cent. In the World Tables,
Ethiopia's population is given to the nearest hundred, with a

viii Preface
relative error of 0.0002 per cent, or 10,000 times more precise than
the US census even though Ethiopia has never had a complete
census!)
Beginning with the presidential address of Wassily Leontief to
the American Economic Association in 1970 (Leontief, 1971),
several other presidents of economists' societies in the United
Kingdom and the United States have over the years expressed
dissatisfaction with the current relationship of economics to reality
and reinforced me in my belief that research on this subject was
overdue. It also became clear that it was useless to expect
economists to change the common practice of the profession
without their having a theoretical justification and practical guide
for the change. Since no one else has appeared willing to undertake
the task I have done so.
I have tried to make the paper as intelligible as possible in the
hope that it will be read by non-economists who are consumers of
economists' memoranda as well as by economists themselves. I
have tried to avoid economists' jargon and technical language as
much as I could in the text, but put in parenthetical remarks when
fuller communication with economists seemed to demand it.
Some may find this paper particularly hard to read not because
its content is difficult but because it requires that the reader exam-
ine and question assumptions and premises that are most often
taken completely for granted and hence not articulated at all.
William James observed that there is no pain like the pain of a new
idea. But this is only if the new idea is accepted and, by so doing,
one has accepted the insecurity of realizing that one's model of
reality has been inadequate or defective. A common refuge is to
protect one's existing model of the world and to reject the new idea
in rage. But economists, one likes to think, are more open-minded.
In any case, many of the individual points made in the paper are
not original. The originality mostly stems from putting together the
various insights developed by others over the years. When these are
assembled, the landscape looks considerably different — or to
vary the metaphor, as in the poem about the six blind men and the
elephant — each touching a different part had a different picture
of the whole animal — when all the reports are in, what we have is
a phenomenon of major importance.
I am acutely aware that this work is still very much work-in-
progress. A great deal more could be done in further refining the

Preface ix
arguments and in the presentation. Many more concrete examples
could be advanced: every economist working on some set of real
problems who has been exposed to this work has suggested a rich
vein to be mined in his own field. From this point on, however, I
believe that my marginal contribution will drop sharply and others
can contribute more.
Except in a few cases, I have not presented examples for adverse
criticism. In the unavoidable instances, what I have tried to pick
are not the easy targets but the work of outstanding economists
whose contributions otherwise are most deserving of admiration.
In fact, at times a person whose work is cited has elsewhere, in a
more reflective mood, demonstrated awareness of some of the
same point that I am making. One drawback of this book,
moreover, is that it may attract approval for the wrong reasons —
that is, it may be misused in a general attack on the whole economic
approach to policy-making. (Forty years ago, when being an
economist was generally agreed to be sufficient to disqualify a
person for membership on the Federal Reserve Board, this
possibility would have been a weighty argument against writing this
book.) What this work is meant to be is rather an attempt to
strengthen economics as a means to understanding the economy
and to improve its contribution to policy-making through a more
realistic appreciation of what economics can really do.
The sympathetic reception to an initial presentation at Harvard
from Edward S. Mason, whose guidance has been particularly
valuable throughout my career, and from Arthur Smithies and
Raymond Vernon encouraged me to go ahead. Thomas Mayer was
generous in encouragement at a time when this was most needed. I
have benefited from the comments of Irma Adelman, John M.
Letiche and Theodore Morgan at seminars at Berkeley and
Wisconsin and from Paul Streeten's and Gerald M. Meier's com-
ments on an early draft. Guy Routh's and René Olivieri's percep-
tive suggestions were also most helpful for the final text. Although
I encountered T. W. Hutchison's writings only late in this work, I
was delighted to find support in them.
I am grateful to William Clark for making it possible for me to
spend my last year with the World Bank working on this subject.
Thanks are also due to Lester Gordon and Dwight H. Perkins, suc-
cessive directors of the Harvard Institute of International Develop-
ment, for making available the intellectual stimulation and

x Preface
facilities of Harvard University, and to my former colleagues at the
World Bank, Benjamin B. King, Alexander Stevenson, Vincent
Hogg, William Ward and Robert Youker for their helpful sugges-
tions. Elizabeth K. Minnich and Pamela Dorn suggested some
useful non-economic sources to me and Maria M. Collum patiently
shepherded the manuscript through several revisions.

1
Introduction
. . .we must not look for the same degree of accuracy in all subjects;
we must be content in each class of subjects with accuracy of such a
kind as the subject-matter allows, and to such an extent as is proper
to the inquiry.
Aristotle, Nicomachean Ethics
We have sought to justify our economic concepts in terms of con-
siderations that are appropriate to the natural sciences; not observ-
ing that what economics tries to do . . . is essentially different.
John Hicks, Wealth and Welfare
The objectives of this book are to explore how closely economics
relates to reality, and what this means for handling economic data,
economic analysis and policy. In physics, quantum mechanics has
demonstrated that there is an insuperable limit beyond which it is
impossible in principle to know precisely both the exact position
and the momentum of a simple elementary particle. In math-
ematics, Goedel proved that no axiomatic system could be
complete. Economics is also subject to limitative results and the
limits to precise knowledge of an economic situation or problem
are approached rapidly. The mesh of the net that economists can
weave to catch economic reality is much coarser than that of the
natural scientists in their realm.
Central to the whole discussion are the meanings of the words
'accuracy' and 'precision'. In common usage, the meanings often
overlap — there is a predisposition to believe that the more precise
a statement is, the more accurate it is. For our purposes, it is
necessary to make a clear distinction between them. 'Accuracy' will

2 Introduction
be used to convey the meaning of 'correctness', of 'true value'.
'Precision' will be used to convey the meaning of 'degree of sharp-
ness' by which a thing or concept is specified. For example: on
Cape Cod, where the pace of life is unhurried and casual, you may
ask a craftsman in June when he will come to repair your fence. If
he answers, 'Sometime in the autumn', he is being accurate but not
precise. If he answers, 'Ten a.m., October 2', he is being precise
but not accurate — it is almost certain that on October 2, the fish
will be running and he will be out in his boat. One of the recurring
themes that we will find in our discussion is that too often in
economics the choice is between being roughly accurate or precisely
wrong.
As is well known, Alfred Marshall and John Maynard Keynes,
both of whom had had mathematical training, did not believe it
was possible to apply exact mathematical methods to economics
and, consequently, warned against them. Keynes endorsed
Marshall's approach that a pervasive part of economic life cannot
be precisely measured. As he stated in his famous footnote in his
memorial of Alfred Marshall: economic interpretation in its
highest form requires an '. . . amalgam of logic and intuition and
the wide knowledge of facts, most of which are not precise. . .'
(Keynes, 1925, p. 25).
To clear the ground, I would like first to state what this book is
not about. It is not concerned with the question whether
mathematics has any use in economics. I regard this as definitely
settled — mathematics is useful as an economic language, as an ef-
ficient technique of reasoning and logic, as an essential part of the
logico-mathematical framework of economic theory; in short,
mathematics is an indispensable tool in economics. (I do not
believe, however, that the use of mathematics in economics is
justified by the argument that we need the shelter of Mathematics
to protect Economics from intruders (Dasgupta, 1968, p. 4).)
Mathematics is not, however, a perfect substitute for language —
not every communication among human beings can be expressed as
well by mathematics as by words. The meaning of a mathematical
symbol does not change, once defined, whereas words can flirt
with meanings and coquette with relationships. Words can be
deliberately ambiguous where relationships are ambiguous and it is
desired to leave them so; many a peace treaty if written in maths
would never have been signed. One could argue that the whole of

Introduction 3
constitutional law in countries with written constitutions is essen-
tially involved in the changing meaning of words in new circum-
stances and new times. Poetry can never be perfectly translated
even from one language into another and certainly not into
mathematics. In sum, natural language can be more flexible in con-
veying meaning, it is infinitely richer in vocabulary than
mathematics, and frequently it can be more accurate although less
precise.
What this book is concerned with is the application of theory to
economic reality: is the result meaningful when mathematical sym-
bols or words are replaced by numbers that are intended accurately
to explain or to forecast the real world? Certainly, one can conceive
that every detail of human economic behaviour could be expressed
mathematically, but this does not mean that the mathematical ex-
pression in question actually can be produced within the body of
mathematical theory that now exists or that may ever exist (Arrow,
1951, p. 130). Moreover, it does not follow at all that because
mathematics may allow us to describe the general outlines of a
system of relationship as algebraic equations we can then always
discover the specific numbers to replace the symbols to make the
equations fit the particular situation we are concerned with. Hayek
has pointed out that the founders of modern mathematical
economics had no such illusions. For example, Pareto clearly
stated it would be absurd to assume we could ascertain all the data
needed for his system of equations describing market equilibrium
that would make it possible to calculate the prices and quantities of
the commodities and services sold (Hayek, 1975, p. 35).
The discussion in this book is based on the assumption — often
falsified in reality — that the mathematics used in economics is not
mishandled. Paul Streeten has called attention to the danger that
use of mathematics may create a false sense of certainty: there is a
temptation to mistake 'validity' for 'truth'. That is, the correct
deduction of logical conclusions is mistaken for the discovery of
facts about the real world. Another temptation is sub-
optimization; that is, to assume that only what is quantifiable is im-
portant and to forget the rest. 'The result may be the worst of all
possible worlds. . . . rationality about a sub-system can be worse
than sub-rationality about the whole system' (Streeten, 1972,
p. 371).
Underlying much of the practice of modern economists is a silent

4 Introduction
premise that the formal properties of the mathematical symbols
used in economic models must be isomorphous with the empirical
relations they purport to represent in the real world; that is, that the
two complex structures — the model and the reality to which it
refers — can be mapped onto each other in such a way that to each
significant part of one structure there is a corresponding part of the
other structure and each of these has the same functional role in
their respective structures. A good example of isomorphism is the
relationship between the notes shown on a musical score and the
sounds of the composition when it is perfectly played. (For
economists, perhaps, the best example is the isomorphism between
the curves in a Cartesian plane and the corresponding equations in
two variables — in mapping from one onto the other all the rel-
evant information is preserved.)
This assumption can be accepted in physics, for example,
because of the very way in which physical models are defined and
developed. In physics only the quantities that can be represented
numerically and transformed mathematically are permitted. In
fact, physics defines itself as. . .'the science devoted to
discovering, developing and refining those aspects of reality that
are amenable to mathematical analysis' (Zinman, 1978, p. 28). In
economics, isomorphism cannot be tacitly accepted; the relation-
ship between models and reality is a central problem to be
examined in each case. This book is largely involved with this
theme.
There is an astounding proposition in economics advanced by
Milton Friedman and accepted by many economists that what mat-
ters in an economic hypothesis is only successful prediction.
Further, Friedman argues that not only does it not matter whether
the assumptions are unrealistic but even, paradoxically, 'to be im-
portant . . . a hypothesis must be descriptively false in its
assumptions . . (1953, p. 15; my emphasis). (Friedman's
argument may depend in part on confusing abstraction — i.e.,
identifying or separating relevant factors from a cloud of irrelevant
detail — with the difference between falsehood and truth. That is,
since abstraction does not reproduce 'noise' but only 'signal', it
must be 'false'.) His discussion demonstrates that he really believes
that it is irrelevant whether the assumptions of a theory are a false
representation of reality or not. As long as the predictions of a
theory appear to be accurate that is all that matters to him.

Introduction 5
A most important application of Friedman's approach is his
belief that it does not really matter whether it is true or not that all
consumers maximize their utility and all businesses maximize their
profits, since the economic system functions in such a way that the
results come out just as //they did try to maximize. Consequently,
we do not need to worry what the facts are of behaviour or of
motivation in the real world. The basic fallacy here is that nobody
knows whether the firms that have survived are truly profit-
maximizers or not (Blaug, 1980, pp. 116-19). In an industry with
increasing returns to scale the existing firms may simply be the ones
that entered first and a late-entry profit-maximizer may never have
been able to catch up; or the survivors may simply be the ones that
had an advantageous power position such as special relationship to
a bank or to a government agency, etc. One cannot assume that
what exists is the maximizing best of all possible worlds.
Friedman's simple prediction criterion eliminates one of the
most important functions of a scientific theory — that is, to pro-
vide an understanding of the events and processes that underlie the
predicted results. In natural science, it is not sufficient to predict
the position of a pointer on a dial, the theory must also explain why
the pointer takes up that particular position and only that position.
Discovering a correlation is not the same as discovering a causal
relationship. Since antiquity the relationship between the moon
and the tides has been known, but there was no adequate theory of
the tides until Newton's theory of gravitation explained why the
tides and their heights occurred just when and how they did. Only
when we have adequate theories that explain how the economy
works in addition to predicting outcomes can we begin to consider
economic policies that can effectively control or change the
economy.
The second drawback to Friedman's position is that even if a
theory has appeared to provide successful predictions in the past on
the basis of false or unrealistic assumptions, one can have no confi-
dence that it will continue to provide successful predictions. It is
easy with the help of a calculator and some idle time to come up
with obviously nonsensical theories that appear to show a record of
successful predictions. For example, David F. Hendry, with tongue
in cheek, has demonstrated that cumulative rainfall predicts the
rate of inflation in the United Kingdom (Hendry, 1980,
pp. 391 -5). Then there is the Boston Snow Theory: if there is

6 Introduction
snow on the ground in Boston on Christmas Day, that indicates the
following year will be good for the American economy. This is all
pseudo-science. In science, merely discovering a series of coinci-
dences linking premises and conclusions does not demonstrate a
correct theory. An acceptable theory must have assumptions
isomorphic to reality, a clear chain of correct logical or logico-
mathematical reasoning leading to conclusions that can be tested
for isomorphism to reality; if a single link is broken, the theory
fails. If assumptions inconsistent with reality appear to lead to true
conclusions, then the chain of logic is wrong, the result is a coinci-
dence, or the conclusions are suspect.
At the purely mathematical stage, an economic model or 'pure'
theory can be like a story in science fiction or a game whose rules
we make up ourselves. At this stage, our main criteria are only that
the rules be logically consistent and the system complete (i.e. in-
ternally consistent), whether or not it corresponds in any respect to
the real world. While our bodies must function in the real
economy, constrained by the limitations and natural laws of re-
ality, our imagination is free to soar above it. But when we must
cope with the real economy and our model is needed to solve a real
problem, to explain, predict or change reality, then the model must
be externally consistent (isomorphic) with the real world: one can
no longer assume that we can travel at speeds greater than the speed
of light or that our concepts grasp reality more precisely or that our
parameters can be measured more accurately than the real world
permits (Weizenbaum, 1976, pp. 43-4). Econometric models that
assume accuracy and precision beyond the margins set by reality
have no practical usefulness (other than as games, teaching aids or
as kinds of finger exercises) and bear the same relationship to
economics and economic policy as scientific fiction has to
science — that is, they may require a good deal of imagination and
pseudo-scientific calculation but are of no help in coping with the
real world.
Perhaps the greatest difficulty economists face in the transition
from the ivory-tower of theory to coping with the problems of
decision-making in the real economic world is in shifting from the
precise numbers and well-behaved models of pure theory to the
rough inaccurate data, recalcitrant behaviour and shifting com-
plexities of reality. The transition is particularly difficult because
there is little or nothing in economists' training to prepare them for

Introduction 1
this stark contrast. On the contrary, the conscious or unconscious
concept that many economists have of economics as a science com-
parable to physics leads them to expect that they should be able to
explain economic reality with the same precision and predictability
that mechanics in physics has been able to attain in explaining and
predicting phenomena in the universe. (Georgescu-Roegen's
definitive destruction of the mechanics model for economics, 1974,
has not yet penetrated much of the profession. See also Hutchison,
1977, Ch. Ill; Lowe, 1965, pp. 34-61; and Sidney Schoeffler's
neglected contribution, 1955.)
Even more, there is an unconscious tendency among economists
to believe that mathematical rigour requires absolute precision in
the numbers used. This is not so. John von Neumann, perhaps the
greatest mathematician of our time, has specifically dealt with this.
He has pointed out that, while in all mathematical problems the
answer is required with absolute rigor and absolute reliability, this
need not mean that it is also required with absolute precision. In
most problems in applied mathematics and mathematical physics
the precision that is wanted is quite limited. The data are often not
known to better than a few (say 5) per cent, and the result may be
satisfactory to even less precision (say 10 per cent). This is compat-
ible with absolute mathematical rigour if the sensitivity of the
result to changes in the data as well as the amount of precision of
the result are rigorously known (von Neumann, 1963, pp. 324-5).
The objective of this book is not only to show that precision in
economics is limited but also to attempt to offer a more realistic
operational expectation. Quantification and the use of
mathematics and statistics in economics are indispensable but it is
also essential to recognize clearly that economic reality can be accu-
rately circumscribed only within differing margins of precision.
This book is concerned, therefore, with that uneasy frontier-zone
where economic theory meets the real world of human beings and
institutions. It is concerned with how good a grasp economics can
get of that hazy, elusive and changing sector of human life called
the economy.

2
Problems of Measurement
in General
When a problem in pure or in applied mathematics is 'solved' by
numerical computation, errors, that is, deviations of the numerical
'solution' obtained from the true, rigorous one, are unavoidable.
Such a 'solution' is therefore meaningless, unless there is an estimate
of the total error in the above sense.
John von Neumann, Collected Works, vol.V
Although modern economics has prided itself on its apparent
similarity to physics, one of the very first basic lessons taught in
beginning physics — that it is essential to understand, to evaluate
and to express the degree of accuracy represented by each number
used — is generally ignored and neglected in economics. Modern
economists insist on quantification but completely overlook the
need to understand how much precision is actually attainable in the
accuracy of the numbers used as well as the need to express the
margin of error present in an economic measurement. Sampling er-
rors for an indifferent (i.e. not hostile) universe are estimated and
are usually stated, but the limits of accuracy in most economic
estimates that are very rough are usually not stated and sometimes
not even acknowledged. Furthermore, economists are not trained
to handle this set of problems. Instead, even though quite aware
that their data (GNP estimates, costs, prices, rates of return), pro-
duced for them by others, are not fully reliable, economists operate
with these numbers as though they were precisely accurate to the
first or second decimal point.
Norbert Wiener, the noted scientist, observed in this regard that
social scientists did not appear to understand the intellectual atti-
tude that underlay the success of mathematical physics. The fre-
quent practice in economics of developing an elaborate model with

Problems of Measurement in General 9
a relative or total indifference to the methods and possibilities of
observing or measuring the elusive quantities concerned is exactly
counter to the real spirit of the hard sciences. A true science has to
begin with a critical understanding of its quantifiable elements and
the means adopted for measuring them (Wiener, 1964,
pp. 89-90).
A generation later, Wiener's comment appears still to be fully
applicable. Thomas Mayer (1980) has spelled out how econo-
metricians continue to violate the basic requirements of real
scientific procedure. For example, it is likely that most
econometricians still do not even bother to check that their data are
properly copied from their sources through the preparation for the
computer to the final printout. Very little attention is paid to the
quality of data — data are dumped into a computer without close
examination. Students are not taught to keep, nor do practitioners
maintain, adequate research records. More prestige is acquired
from applying the latest complex techniques to good, bad or
indifferent data than in arriving at valid, verifiable and useful
results. As a consequence of all this, there is apparently frequent
non-replicability of results. Very few attempts are made and
published of checks of previous findings of econometric research.
Even if unscientific statistical and econometric methods are
avoided, errors in economic data will still exist: errors in economic
data are inherent and unavoidable. Why is this so? First of all, er-
rors are inevitable whenever the transition is made from a purely
mathematical model using only symbols to a numerical or
econometric model. This is true not only of economic models but
of all models. John von Neumann and H. H. Goldstine in their
pioneering study (1963) identified four primary sources of errors in
all numerical computations. To the extent that an economic de-
cision involves the use of numbers, these sources of errors are
therefore also present and need to be taken into account.
First, in applied mathematics the model chosen to represent the
underlying problem will represent it only with certain abstractions
and simplifications. A mathematical formulation necessarily
represents only a more or less explicit theory of some phase of re-
ality; it is not reality itself (von Neumann and Goldstine, 1963,
p. 428). In economics, this first step of abstraction from reality
may be even greater than that identified by von Neumann and
Goldstine — and the resulting inherent errors consequently are

10 Problems of Measurement in General
greater. In the social sciences it is very easy to formulate a
theoretical model where the determination of the optimum
statistical model entails mathematical problems that no one yet has
been able to solve. There are also models where the problems are
soluble in principle by known methods but the computations in
practice would take an impossibly long time. In these cases, the
procedure is to substitute a mathematically practicable theory, as
similar as possible to the desired one (Arrow, 1951, p. 132). In
other words, the model used is at second remove from reality — it
is a proxy for the unrealizable ideal model, which itself would be an
abstraction from reality.
Second, the model may involve parameters, the values of which
have to be derived directly or indirectly from observations. These
parameters are affected by errors, and these errors cause errors in
the results (von Neumann and Goldstine, 1963, p. 482). This com-
ment is deceptively simple: errors in parameters derive not only
from the process of measurement of sharply defined individuals or
classes but also from the definition of the individuals and classes
being measured. As we shall see in the next chapter, the causes of
errors in observations are much more prevalent and stronger in
economics than in the physical sciences.
Third, the model will in general involve transcendental oper-
ations (like integration or differentiation) and implicit definitions
(such as solutions of algebraical or transcendental equations). 'In
order to be approached by numerical calculation, these have to be
replaced by elementary processes (involving only those elementary
arithmetical operations which the computer can handle directly)
and explicit definitions which correspond to a finite, constructive
procedure that resolves itself into a linear sequence of steps.' All
these processes are approximative, and so the strict mathematical
statement we start with is now replaced by 'an approximate one'
(pp. 482-3; emphasis in original).
The fourth source of errors comes from the need to round off
numbers. There has to be a cut-off somewhere, that is, a maximum
number of places in a number. From this point on these 'noise
variables or round off variables' are injected into the computation
every time an elementary operation is performed and constitute a
source of errors (pp. 484-5).
In modern computers there are usually two distinct ways of
handling numerical data. In Fortran, for example, numerical data

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670: Voyez p. 1244.
671: Les bâtiments de cette communauté sont occupés par une
filature.
672: Leurs bâtiments ont été changés en maisons particulières.
673: Sauval, t. I, p. 663. Les Bénédictins qui ont donné l'Histoire de
Paris et le Gallia Christiana donnent pour époque de cette institution
l'année 1670, et l'auteur du Calendrier historique a suivi la même
date. Il est vrai que les lettres-patentes ne sont que du mois de
juillet 1667, et que le parlement ne les a enregistrées le 16 mai
qu'après avoir vu le consentement de l'archevêque du 23 janvier
1669, et l'avis des prévôts des marchands et échevins, du lieutenant-
général de police et du substitut du procureur-général au Châtelet,
en date des 16 mars et 18 juillet de la même année; mais il faut
observer, dit Jaillot, qu'on néglige quelquefois d'obtenir des lettres-
patentes pour certains établissements religieux, ou qu'on ne les
demande que plusieurs années après qu'ils ont été formés; que les
lettres-patentes de 1667 n'ont pas pour objet de permettre, mais de
confirmer l'établissement fait par la dame Vignier, ce qui prouve son
existence antérieure; enfin que les auteurs du Gallia Christiana en
fournissent eux-mêmes la preuve, en disant que la seconde prieure
de cette maison fut dame Laurence de Saint-Simon Sandricourt, qui
en étoit la première professe, y ayant pris l'habit le 27 décembre
1648, et prononcé ses vœux le 1er
février 1650. Ainsi l'établissement
réel et de fait du prieuré de Notre-Dame-de-Bon-Secours est de
l'année 1648.
674: Cette abbaye est située à quatre lieues de Paris du côté du
levant.
675: Cette maison a été changée en atelier de filature.
676: T. V, p. 119.
677: T. XII, col. 574.

678: Il avoit été déposé au musée des Petits-Augustins, et scellé sur
les murs du cloître. C'est une sculpture extrêmement médiocre.
679: On a aussi établi une filature dans les bâtiments de cette
communauté.
680: Voyez 1re
partie de ce vol., p. 229.
681: Il y a maintenant une école dans les bâtiments de cette
communauté.
682: Hist. de Par., t. II, p. 356.
683: Ce motif est constaté dans sa requête, visée dans l'arrêt du 4
février 1634, et détruit tout le récit de cet historien, qui n'avoit pas
lu sans doute les titres originaux qu'il cite, et qui a pris pour une
donation une vente réelle faite au curé de Saint-Paul par le seigneur
de Reuilli.
684: Cette église a été rendue au culte.
685: Cette maison est maintenant occupée par des particuliers.
686: Gall. Christ., t. VII, col. 899.
687: Hist. eccles. Paris., t. II, p. 209. On voit par le diplôme de saint
Louis, pour la confirmation des droits de cette abbaye, donné à
Saint-Germain-en-Laye, au mois de novembre 1227, et par l'acte de
donation de Barthélemi de Roie, chambrier de France, dans la
seigneurie duquel étoit située l'abbaye de Saint-Antoine, que l'enclos
de cette abbaye contenoit quatorze arpents de terre; que les
religieuses en possédoient en outre cent soixante-quatorze arpents,
plus onze arpents et un quartier de vigne entre Paris et le bois de
Vincennes, et deux maisons dans la ville, le tout dans la censive du
chambrier. Cette communauté jouissoit de tous ces biens dès le
temps de Philippe-Auguste et de Louis VIII. Ces deux actes
détruisent entièrement ce qui a été avancé par Du Breul sur une

prétendue donation faite à cette abbaye, donation qu'il suppose bien
plus considérable qu'elle n'étoit.
688: Voyez pl. 132.
689: L'enclos de l'abbaye étoit entouré d'un fossé. On remarquoit, à
l'angle qu'il forme avec la rue de Reuilli, une croix dont Du Breul fait
mention: cet historien ajoute qu'en 1562 on trouva parmi les ruines
de cette croix une pierre qui en faisoit partie, avec cette inscription:
L'an M. CCCC. LXV fut ici tenu le landit des trahisons, et fut par unes tresves qui furent
données: maudit soit il qui en fut cause.
C'est d'après ce rapport que Sauval dit «qu'en 1465 on érigea une
croix au carrefour de Reuilli, en mémoire de la paix faite entre le roi
et les premiers chefs de la guerre du bien public.» Cependant,
d'après l'inscription, il paroît constant que la croix ne fut point érigée
en souvenir des traités de Conflans, de Saint-Maur et de la Grange-
aux-Merciers, mais bien plutôt comme une marque de l'inexécution
de ces traités, et de la perfidie de ceux qui s'étoient de nouveau
révoltés contre le roi. D'ailleurs, le compte du domaine de 1479,
rapporté par Sauval (t. V, p. 456), prouve que ce ne fut qu'en cette
année que ce monument fut élevé; on y lit, fol. 378:
À Jean Chevrin, maçon, pour avoir assis, par ordonnance du roi, une croix et épitaphe
près la Grange-du-Roi, au lieu où l'on appelle le Fossé des Trahisons, derrière Saint-
Antoine-des-Champs.
690: L'église a été abattue, et son emplacement forme maintenant
une petite place. Le monastère a été changé en hôpital.
691: Hist. de Par., t. V, p. 94.
692: La fonte et le coulage s'en font à Tour-la-Ville, près de
Cherbourg, et à Saint-Gobin; elles sont mises ensuite à leur
perfection dans cette manufacture, où elles reçoivent le douci, le poli
et l'étamure.

693: Ils existent encore dans le même état qu'avant la révolution.
694: C'est par erreur que Sauval place cette époque au
commencement du seizième siècle (t. I, p. 702), et dit qu'après avoir
demeuré quelque temps aux faubourgs Saint-Marcel et Saint-
Jacques, les Filles de la Trinité vinrent demeurer dans celui de Saint-
Antoine en 1608, et dans la petite rue de Reuilli en 1613. L'abbé
Lebeuf, Piganiol et l'auteur des Tablettes parisiennes en fixent la
date en 1618; et ceci est une suite de l'erreur de Sauval. Ces
historiens, en se copiant ainsi, ne se sont pas aperçus que cette date
étoit inadmissible, puisque, à cette époque, madame Voisin et M. de
Noailles n'étoient pas encore au monde.
695: Cette maison a été changée en ateliers de filature.
696: Ce couvent est maintenant occupé par un pensionnat de
jeunes demoiselles.
697: Hist. de Par., t. II, p. 1252.—Piganiol, t. V, p. 82, etc.
698: Un ancien mémoire manuscrit porte que, dans l'endroit où ils
s'établirent, étoit autrefois un lieu destiné aux lépreux, et qu'il y
avoit un bâtiment et une chapelle desservie par des chanoines, qui
l'abandonnèrent. Mais, dit Jaillot, je n'en ai trouvé aucune preuve;
j'ai seulement lu que les capucins s'y établirent en 1573, et qu'ils
n'en sortirent que pour venir occuper la maison qu'ils habitèrent
depuis rue Saint-Honoré. Les jésuites succédèrent ensuite aux
capucins: leur dessein étoit d'y établir une maison professe; mais le
cardinal de Bourbon leur ayant procuré un emplacement plus
convenable (voyez p. 1208), ils abandonnèrent la chapelle, qui passa
aux héritiers de l'évêque de Sisteron. Ceux-ci, à la considération de
Diane de France, duchesse d'Angoulême, consentirent que la maison
et la chapelle fussent occupées par Robert Reche (alias Richer),
ermite de l'ordre de Saint-Augustin, qui s'y établit avec son frère, en
vertu de la permission de Jean Prévôt, vicaire-général du cardinal de

Gondi, évêque de Paris, en date du 29 août 1588. (Sauval, t. III, p.
220.—Lebeuf, t. II, p. 538.)
699: La maison et le terrain sont maintenant occupés par des
jardiniers.
700: Voyez pl. 127.
701: Sauval, t. I, p. 68.
702: Les historiens disent que le duc d'Orléans en sortoit lorsqu'il
fut assassiné.
703: Tout ce vaste emplacement, depuis la rue Saint-Antoine
jusqu'aux Célestins et à la rivière, étoit couvert de maisons, cours,
jardins, et de vastes hôtels qui furent presque tous réunis à la
maison royale dite l'hôtel Saint-Paul, et ensuite divisés et vendus
comme nous l'avons dit en parlant de ce célèbre édifice. Cette
division a trompé nos historiens, et les a mis dans le cas ou de
confondre ces différents hôtels, ou de ne pas remarquer que les
noms divers qu'ils ont portés ne doivent souvent s'appliquer qu'à la
même demeure, successivement occupée par divers particuliers.
Ainsi cet hôtel du Petit-Musc a porté successivement les noms
d'hôtel Neuf, d'Étampes, de Bretagne, d'Orange, de Valentinois, de
Boisi, de Langres, du Maine (Mayenne), et d'Ormesson.
704: T. II, p. 126.
705: Nous avons parlé de ce qui a rapport à la démolition de cet
hôtel à l'article des hôtels du quartier Saint-Paul.
706: Bannières du Châtelet, vol. VII, fo
204, verso.
707: Fredeg. Schol. Chron., no
58.—Duchesne, t. Ier
, p. 757. Coll.
hist. Fr., t. II, no
58.

708: On proposa, dit l'historien de ce prince, de la donner au roi de
Navarre, qui offroit de la payer comptant; «mais il fut impossible d'y
réduire l'université: si bien que le roi n'en put sauver que les galeries
qui étoient bâties sur les murailles de la ville, et qui furent
conservées, en les payant selon l'estimation pour la merveille de
l'ouvrage, pour la rareté et la diversité des peintures.»
709: Cette pierre, qui avoit deux pieds carrés, fut enlevée quand on
bâtit l'hôtel de Lorraine, et trouvée depuis dans quelques
démolitions. Elle a été long-temps encastrée dans les murs du jardin
de M. Foucault, conseiller d'État. Voici ce qu'on y lisoit:
«Cette maison de Savoisi, en 1404, fut démolie et abattue par arrêt,
pour certains forfaits et excès commis par messire Charles de
Savoisi, chevalier, pour lors seigneur et propriétaire d'icelle maison,
et ses serviteurs, à aucuns écoliers et suppôts de l'université de
Paris, en faisant la procession de ladite université à Sainte-
Catherine-du-Val-des-Écoliers, près dudit lieu, avec autres
réparations, fondations de chapelles et charges déclarées audit arrêt,
et a demeuré démolie et abattue l'espace de cent douze ans, et
jusqu'à ce que ladite université, de grâce spéciale, et pour certaines
causes, a permis la réédification d'icelle, aux charges contenues et
déclarées ès lettres sur ce faites et passées à ladite université en l'an
1517.»
710: Corroz., fo
135, recto.
711: T. II, p. 1090.
712: Chamb. des compt. Mémor. E., fo
223.
713: La gravure que nous en donnons ici représente cet hôtel tel
qu'il étoit après ces dernières constructions. (Voyez pl. 128.)
714: Voyez p. 1175.
715: Voyez pl. 129.

716: L'auteur du quatrième volume de la Description de Paris et de
ses édifices les présente comme des chefs-d'œuvre.
717: Sauval, t. I, p. 693.
718: Sur plusieurs plans du dix-huitième siècle on trouve un jardin
des arquebusiers placé à côté de la boucherie, qui étoit alors située
à l'esplanade de la porte Saint-Antoine. Quelques particuliers s'y
exerçoient effectivement à tirer de l'arquebuse, et même on y
distribuoit des prix; mais ils ne formoient point un corps comme la
compagnie des arquebusiers.
719: Voyez à la fin de ce quartier l'article Monuments nouveaux.
720: Tout près d'un des angles du clos de Mont-Louis, et dans le
parc du seigneur de Charonne, étoit une petite terrasse qui avoit pris
la place d'un pavillon assez anciennement construit. On assure que
ce fut en cet endroit que le cardinal Mazarin plaça Louis XIV, pour lui
faire voir la bataille qui se donna au faubourg Saint-Antoine le 2
juillet 1652.
721: Voyez pl. 130, une Vue de la portion de ces boulevarts qui est
la plus élégante et la plus fréquentée.
722: Maintenant barrière d'Aunay.
723: Elle est fermée.
724: Elle a pris le nom de la barrière des Rats.
725: Elle est fermée pour les voitures.
726: T. II, p. 598.
727: Cart. S. Mauri, p. 1284.
728: Fol. 7, recto.
É

729: Cens. de S. Éloi, 1367. Nicolas Bonfons, libraire, qui nous a
donné une édition plus ample des Antiquités de Paris, publiées par
Corrozet, indique, dans ce quartier, quatre rues que nous ne
connoissons plus: la rue Sainte-Catherine, pour aller droit à la porte
Saint-Antoine, la rue de la Royne, la rue Royale et la rue d'Orléans.
Corrozet n'avoit point fait mention de ces rues, soit par oubli, soit
qu'elles n'existassent point alors, comme cela paroît plus
vraisemblable.
Le palais des Tournelles ayant été détruit presque de fond en comble
en 1565, on put faire un chemin qui conduisoit en droite ligne de
l'église de la Couture Sainte-Catherine à la porte Saint-Antoine, et
qui se trouve aujourd'hui couvert de maisons: ce seroit la rue Sainte-
Catherine. La rue d'Orléans semble être le chemin qui conduit à la
Bastille et à l'Arsenal. On sait que le duc d'Orléans avoit un hôtel
situé en cet endroit, et qui fait partie des jardins de l'Arsenal. La rue
de la Royne pourroit être le passage qui conduisoit au cimetière
Saint-Paul et aux charniers, lesquels subsistoient encore vers la fin
du dix-huitième siècle. Jaillot avoit vu cependant un ancien plan
manuscrit de la censive et des terrains dépendants du monastère de
la culture Sainte-Catherine, sur lequel ce passage étoit indiqué sous
le nom de rue aux Lyons. La rue Royale semble être représentée par
le cul-de-sac Guémené.
730: Dans cette même rue, et un peu avant celle de Saint-Bernard
qui vient y aboutir, il y a un cul-de-sac nommé des Forges Royales.
731: T. I, p. 112.
732: Arch. de l'archev.
733: Portef. de Blondeau, t. XII, 1er
et 8e
cahiers.
734: Compt. de Recett. de Ligny de 1601 à 1602, fo
257, verso.
735: Il y a dans cette rue un cul-de-sac qui porte le même nom.

736: Ce fut dans cette rue que le connétable de Clisson fut
assassiné par l'ordre de Pierre de Craon le 13 juin 1392, et que le roi
et une partie de sa cour allèrent le visiter dans la boutique d'un
boulanger chez lequel il s'étoit réfugié. (Voyez 1re
partie de ce
volume, p. 97.)
737: Arch. de Sainte-Cather.
738: Cette rue est fermée maintenant depuis la rue de Berci jusqu'à
la rivière.
739: Il y avoit dans la rue de Charonne deux culs-de-sac: le
premier, appelé de Mortagne, lequel n'existe plus, devoit son nom à
un hôtel voisin; le second, nommé de la Croix-Faubin, existe encore,
et doit son nom à une croix qui s'élevoit vis-à-vis de l'endroit où il
est situé. Du reste ce nom tire sa première origine d'un petit hameau
qui fait aujourd'hui partie du faubourg Saint-Antoine.
740: Arch. de Sainte-Cather.
741: L'abbé Lebeuf, dans ses notes sur le Dit des rues de Paris de
Guillot (p. 597), a cru que c'étoit cette rue-ci que le poète désigne
sous le nom du Pute-y-Muce. Robert, en lui donnant aussi ce dernier
nom, ajoute qu'elle le portoit encore en 1560, et qu'en 1620 on lui
donnoit celui de la Grosse-Margot, de l'enseigne d'un cabaret. Nous
croyons que ces deux auteurs se sont trompés. Guillot, d'accord avec
les rôles de taxes de 1300 et de 1313, indique la rue Renaut
Lefèvre; or c'étoit ce nom que portoit alors la rue Cloche-Perce,
comme on peut s'en convaincre en voyant le plan de d'Heuland et
autres plans anciens, de même qu'en lisant Sauval et Corroset.
742: T. I, p. 126.
743: On la nomme maintenant rue Saint-Sabin.

745: Recueil de Blondeau, t. XII, 6e
cahier.
746: On la nomme maintenant rue Sainte-Anne.
747: Sauval et ses copistes disent qu'elle a porté successivement les
noms de Vieille-Barbette, des Poulies, des Viez-Poulies, de Ferri-des-
Poulies en 1258, et de Richard-des-Poulies. Cet auteur ajoute que
les poulies étoient un jeu usité alors, et qu'on ne connoît plus
aujourd'hui, lequel produisait 20 sols parisis de rente, que Jean
Gennis et sa femme donnèrent aux Templiers en 1271. Il est certain
qu'au quinzième siècle et au suivant cette rue portoit le nom des
Poulies; mais nous n'avons point trouvé ailleurs que dans Sauval
qu'elle ait été appelée Vieille-Barbette. Il l'a peut-être confondue
avec la Vieille rue du Temple, à laquelle elle aboutit, et qui, dans cet
endroit, se nommoit rue Vieille-Barbette.
748: Hist. de Par., t. I, p. 591.
749: Sauval, t. I, p. 135, 136, 521.
750: Sauval, t. I, p. 143.
751: Il y a, dans la rue Saint-Antoine, un cul-de-sac parallèle à cette
rue, et qui porte le même nom.
752: Trait. de la Pol., t. I, p. 181.
753: Au bout de cette rue, et en face de celle des Rosiers, est un
cul-de-sac appelé Coquerel. C'étoit anciennement une rue ou ruelle
nommée de la Lamproie, laquelle aboutissoit à la rue Couture-
Sainte-Catherine. (Arch. de Sainte-Cather.) Dans le terrier du roi de
1540 elle est nommée rue de la Cocquerie, rue Coquerée dans les
titres des Haudriettes, et de la Cocquerée dans ceux du Temple en
1415.
En face de cette rue, sur le terrain du Petit-Saint-Antoine, on a
ouvert un passage qui donne dans la rue du même nom. On

l'appelle passage du Petit-Saint-Antoine.
755: De Chuyes, dans son Guide de Paris, ne fait pas mention de la
rue de Lappe, mais il indique une rue Gaillard, qui nous paroît être
celle-ci; s'il dit qu'elle aboutit à la rue de Charenton, c'est une faute
d'impression, il faut lire: à la rue de Charonne. Cette identité nous
semble prouvée par la fondation que l'abbé Gaillard avoit faite dans
cette rue, d'une communauté composée de six frères et d'un
supérieur ecclésiastique, pour apprendre à lire et à écrire aux
pauvres garçons du faubourg Saint-Antoine.
756: Il y a dans cette rue un cul-de-sac qui faisoit la continuation de
la rue du Foin. On l'appelle des Hospitalières, parce que leur maison
y étoit située.
757: L'avenue qui donne d'un côté sur la place du Trône, de l'autre
dans cette rue, se nomme avenue des Ormes.
758: T. III, p. 307.
759: Archiv. du Templ.
760: T. Ier
, p. 165, et t. II, p. 121 et 255.
761: T. IV, p. 401.
762: Arch. de Sainte-Cather. et du Temple.
763: Voyez p. 954.
764: P. 1237.
765: Il y avoit anciennement dans cette rue, entre la rue Saint-
Sébastien et celle du Chemin-Vert, trois culs-de-sac qui n'existent

plus. Le premier n'avoit point de nom certain; le second étoit appelé
des Jardiniers; le troisième, de la ruelle Pelée.
766: Recueil de Blondeau, t. LXVI.
767: Ibid, t. XXX., 4e
et 5e
cahiers.
768: Cette maison est mentionnée dans l'histoire de Charles IX; les
protestants y tenoient une de leurs assemblées. Les registres de la
ville nous apprennent que, le 24 avril 1562, le connétable de
Montmorenci s'y transporta, ainsi que dans deux autres appelées le
Patriarche et le Temple de Jérusalem, et fit brûler les bancs et la
chaire du ministre. Quelques auteurs ont prétendu que ce lieu fut
ensuite donné à des hospitalières du Saint-Esprit de Montpellier,
qu'on y construisit une chapelle sous le titre du Saint-Esprit, et que
c'est de là que les religieuses Annonciades du Saint-Esprit ont pris
leur nom; mais cette opinion est destituée de tout fondement.
769: Depuis la rue de Berci jusqu'à la rivière on la nomme
maintenant rue Villiot.
770: Dans cette rue aboutissent trois ruelles: la première, nommée
ruelle des Quatre-Chemins, commence à côté de la barrière de
Charenton; la seconde s'appelle ruelle des Trois-Chandelles; la
troisième, désignée sous le titre de ruelle des Trois-Sabres, se dirige
vers la barrière de Reuilly.
771: Il y a dans cette rue un cul-de-sac nommé cul-de-sac de
Reuilli.
773: On la nomme maintenant rue de la Folie-Regnau.
774: Arch. du Templ.

775: En parlant de la rue des Juifs, nous avons remarqué que
Guillot, le rôle de 1313 et autres titres subséquents n'en faisoient
pas mention, et cette observation pourroit suffire; mais nous avons
encore, pour nous appuyer dans notre opinion, un monument de
sculpture placé à la maison qui fait l'angle de la rue du Roi-de-Sicile
et de celle des Juifs. Nos historiens nous ont conservé le souvenir de
l'attentat commis sur une statue de la Sainte-Vierge qui fut mutilée
la nuit du 31 mai au 1er
juin 1528: elle étoit placée en la rue des
Rosiers. François Ier
fit faire une autre statue en argent, qu'il plaça
au lieu même où étoit l'ancienne de pierre. Cette cérémonie se fit le
12 dudit mois, à la fin d'une procession générale ordonnée à cet
effet. Cette statue ayant été volée en 1545, on en substitua une
troisième en bois qui fut brisée par les hérétiques la nuit du 13 au 14
décembre 1551. On fit de nouveau une semblable procession, et l'on
y plaça alors une statue de marbre. Les actes qui constatent ces
différents faits indiquent que ces réparations furent faites rue des
Rosiers, devant l'huis de derrière du Petit-Saint-Antoine. Ce
monument en sculpture, où François Ier
est représenté, a toujours
subsisté depuis au même lieu, et n'a été déplacé qu'au moment de
la révolution.
776: On la nommoit, pendant la révolution, rue des Vosges, ainsi
que la place.
778: Pag. 48.
779: T. II, p. 597.
780: Elle a porté, pendant la révolution, le nom de rue Saint-Denis.
781: Voy. t. I, p. 279, 1re
partie.
782: Le scandale de ces inscriptions a été porté si loin, que depuis
quelque temps, dit-on, il a été nommé des inspecteurs chargés

d'examiner, d'admettre ou de rejeter les épitaphes.

Notes au lecteur de ce fichier numérique:
Seules les erreurs clairement introduites par le typographe ont été
corrigées. L'orthographe de l'auteur a été conservée.
Autres corrections effectuées:
—Page 593: "suivant l'expression très-vive de Moutesquieu," a été
remplacé par "suivant l'expression très-vive de Montesquieu,".
—Page 593: "par-dessus tout la multitude innombrable de ces
hommes libres et armes" a été remplacé par "par-dessus tout la
multitude innombrable de ces hommes libres et armés".
—Page 682: "qui furent définitivement terminées en 1638," a été
remplacé par "qui furent définitivement terminées en 1658,".
—Page 683: "où elles furent entièrement installées le 8 septembre
1677;" a été remplacé par "où elles furent entièrement installées le 8
septembre 1617;".
—Page 720: "qui, jusqu'à Malherhe" a été remplacé par "qui,
jusqu'à Malherbe".
—Page 816: "maladresse par Biaod le fils" a été remplacé par
"maladresse par Biard le fils".
—Page 928: "introduite alors en France avec plusieurs rits
romains," a été remplacé par "introduite alors en France avec

plusieurs rites romains,".
—Page 983: "et en la chambre des comptes le 22 mai 163;" a été
remplacé par "et en la chambre des comptes le 22 mai 1633;".
—Page 996: "rapides que, dès 1250," a été remplacé par "rapides
que, dès 1230,".
—Page 1054: "avoité prouvés jusqu'alors" a été remplacé par
"avoit prouvés jusqu'alors".
—Page 1089: "On en jeta les fondements en 1655." a été
remplacé par "On en jeta les fondements en 1635.".
—Page 1208: "Le portail, élevé en 1534," a été remplacé par "Le
portail, élevé en 1634,".
—Note 184: "mais encore de logement au prévôt des marchands
et à famille" a été remplacé par "mais encore de logement au prévôt
des marchands et à sa famille".
—Note 192: "qu'elle avoit été enlevée" a été remplacé par "qu'elle
avoit été élevée".
—Note 230: "chartre de ce prince de l'an 1141" a été remplacé
par "charte de ce prince de l'an 1141".
—Note 606: "un génie en pleurs éteint un flambleau" a été
remplacé par "un génie en pleurs éteint un flambeau".
—Note 780: Il n'y a pas d'ancre correspondant dans le texte.

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