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《国家债务的基本常识》
那些抱怨关于政府的债务状况根本不明白一个人的资产是别人的债务,一个人的债务是
别人的资产的基本概念。
这概念应用在公共金融也是一样的。
政府透过发行债卷给私人界来借钱,作为回报私人界拥有债卷为其资产,每半年得到政
府支付的利息直到债卷到期。
政府的债卷是私人界的资产。
当政府为了减少债务,而偿还债务多于借新债务时,私人界能够购买及拥有的债卷就比
较少。
政府债卷的大买家其中有养老保险基金,退休基金,保险,和回教保险公司。当政府想
努力减低自身债务时,以债卷作为安全资产的数量将变得很有限,导致它们得把资金投资
在风险比较高的资产如股权和公司债卷。
这概念也应用于政府的预算平衡(盈余/赤字)
一个人的的支出是别人的收入,反之一个人的收入就是一个人的支出。
政府的支出是私人界的收入,政府的收入(透过税收)是私人界的支出。
当政府在某一年呈现出赤字预算案,这就代表政府的支出多过政府的收入。换一种说法,
在某一个财政年,政府给予私人界(家庭和公司)的钱多过它透过税收收集到的钱。
另一方面,当政府呈现出盈余预算案,在就代表政府提高收入多过它的支出。换一种说
法,政府从家庭和私人界所抽的税多过给予私人企业的资金。
请问哪一个状况对我们比较有利?
政府盈余预算还是赤字预算?
政府向我们抽更多税还是政府花更多钱在我们身上?
我不懂你们的看法,但我个人认为我不要政府在我血汗钱抽的税多过花在我身上的钱。
如果政府为了省钱而减低赤字和债务,私人界也为了省钱而减少花费?
如果每个私人界为了自身经济而省钱,马来西亚经济成长不会达到最大潜力。
总要有人花费以带动经济。
当政府省钱,私人界得花储蓄的钱,并反过来将占有更多债务,比如更高的家庭债务。
当政府花储蓄的钱,私人界能够减少负债和开始去杠杆化及修正其支出负债表,尤其是
在家庭方面。
当联邦政府在 90 年代,安华担任财政部长时有预算盈余,我们的国家总体而言经常账
户出现赤字。
当政府省钱时,私人界,尤其是企业的债务飙升。
当亚洲金融风暴冲击我们时,私人界面临一段又长又痛的去杠杆化时代,和当财政部长
使出财政紧缩措施时,也就是更大的支出削减时,经济严重萎缩,很多人失业,工厂倒
闭,一些人失去房子,及私人界,企业和家庭经历许多艰辛。
经济无法完全恢复,直到政府扭转其过程,也就是在财政紧缩政策失败后,转为提高支
出,提高预算赤字,及承担更多的债务。
只要私人界去杠杆化及省更多,政府就需要运行预算赤字,使经济充分发挥其潜力。
政府的赤字和债务也给私人界一个机会去修复自己的资产负债表,也就是减少自己的债
务。
公积金(EPF),退休基金(KWAP),保险/回教保险公司需要也要求投资在安全的资
产,也就只有政府债卷。
这意味着,政府需要发行更多的债卷以符合需求。
自从公积金提供一个替代的伊斯兰教法帐户给未来的退休人士,政府将需要发行更多符
合伊斯兰教法政府证券,如政府发行的投资(GII),以满足未来来自公积金潜在的需
求。
政府金融的运作和家庭金融的运作是不一样的。
就因为你需要省钱,不代表政府也需要省钱。
马来西亚拥有控制自己货币的主权(国家银行,BNM 控制货币政策),不像希腊多年
前当她决定加入货币联盟(欧元区)时,已经把其货币政策的决定权交给欧洲央行
(ECB)。
这就是为什么希腊今天会是这个情况。
马来西亚永远不可能如希腊般面临破产。
让我们开始接受这事实,也就是可控制和可持续的政府赤字和债务对我们私人界和整个
经济都有好处。
别乱相信对公共财政一窍不通的政客。
< Basic knowledge about country’s debt>
Those who complained about government debt don't understand the simple concept of one's assets are other's debts
and one's debts are other's assets.
This works exactly the same in public finance.
Government borrows money by issuing bond to the private sector(investors) and in return investors own the bond as
an asset and will receive half-yearly interest payments from the government until the bond matures.
Government bond (debt) is private sector's asset.
When the government reduces its debt, by repaying more than taking new debts,there will be fewer debts for private
sectorto buy/own.
Pension fund, retirement fund, insurance and takaful companies which are among the biggest goverment bond
investors will have to resort to riskier assets such as equity and corporate bonds as supply of safe assets (government
bonds)become limited due to government's effort to reduce its own debt.
The same concept applies to (government) budget balance (surplus/deficit).
One's spending is other's income, one's income is other's spending.
Government spending is private sector's income, government's income is private sector's spending (tax).
When government registers a deficit budget in one particular year, that means government is spending more than it
raises revenue, in other words, government is giving more money to the private sector(households and firms) than it
collects taxes from the private sector in that particular fiscal year.
On the flip side, if government registers a budget surplus,that means government is raising revenue more than it
spends,in otherwords, government is collecting taxes from households and firms more than it gives back to the
private sector.
Which one of the scenarios will benefit us?
Government budget surplus or government budget deficit? Government collects more taxes from us or government
spends more for us?
I don't know about you guys but personally I don't want government to tax my hard earned money more than it
spends on me.
What if the government saves by reducing its deficit and debt, and private sectortoo saves by spending less and
saving more?
Malaysia's economic growth won't reach its full potential if every sectorin the economy saves.
Somebody needs to spend to get the economy going.
When government saves,private sectorhas to dissave and in turn will take up more debt for example higher
household debt.
When government dissaves,private sectorcan reduce its liabilities and starts deleveraging and fix its balance sheet
especially households.
When the federal government ran a budget surplus during the 90s when Anwar Ibrahim was the finance minister,
our country as a whole ran a deficit in current account.
Private sectorespecialy businesses debtsskyrocketed as government saved.
When the Asian Financial Crisis hit us, private sectorexperienced a long painful deleveraging era and when the
finance minister resorted to tight fiscal measures - bigger spending cuts the economy contracted badly, people lost
their jobs, factories closed, some lost their homes and many hardships experienced by the private sector, business
and household.
The economy didn't really recover until the government reversed its course by spending more and increasing budget
deficit and taking up more debt after the failed tight fiscal policy.
As long as the private sectordeleverages and saves,government needs to run budget deficits for the economy to
reach its full potential.
Government deficits and debts also give an opportunity for the private sectorto fix its own balance sheet that is
reducing its own debt.
EPF, KWAP, insurance/takaful firms need and demand safe assets to be invested in which is none other than
government bonds.
That means government needs to issue more and more bonds to fulfill their demands.
Since EPF is offering an alternative shariah account for the future retirees, government will need to issue more
shariah-compliant government securities such as government investment issues (GII) to meet potential demands
from EPF in the near futures.
Government finance doesn't work like household finance.
Just because you need to save, doesn't mean government has to.
Malaysia is in control of its own monetary sovereignty (Bank Negara controls monetary policy) unlike Greece who
surrendered its monetary policy decision making to the European Central Bank (ECB) when it decided to join the
monetary union (Eurozone) many years ago.
That's why Greece is what Greece is today.
Malaysia will never go bankrupt like Greece.
Let us start embracing the fact that controlled and sustainable government deficits and debts are good for us the
private sector and the economy as a whole.
Don't listen to the politicians who know nuts about public finance.

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