DMCC Future of Trade Web3

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DIGITAL DECENTRALISATION:
CRYPTO, DEFI AND THE METAVERSE

Over the last five years, several interlocking technology trends have
facilitated the so-called ‘web3’ era.
Blockchain, cryptocurrencies, the metaverse and new forms of digital value,
such as non-fungible tokens (NFTs), have emerged to offer new modes of
engagement, experience, transactions and autonomy in the digital space.
This new chapter in the world wide web promises to be decentralised and
open to all, with implications for brands, financial institutions, consumers,
and regulators.
The last year has been punishing for each of these segments, however, there are
signs that a more mature and seasoned industry is forming with road-tested use
cases, and founders and companies committed for the long-term.
This Future of Trade special edition report by DMCC (Dubai Multi
Commodities Centre) assesses the dynamics driving growth and innovation
in digital decentralisation.
EXECUTIVE
SUMMARY

MAIN
FINDINGS

After the ‘crypto winter’ of 2022, there is
resilience and appetite from startups,
investors, financial institutions and regulators
to build durable and value-adding services,
from central bank digital currencies to novel
digital assets. To flourish, crypto needs
effective regulations to provide market
stability, and boost consumer and investor
confidence. The clean-up brought on by the
crisis could provide a starting point, and
approval of crypto exchange-traded funds
(ETFs) may be a game-changer for the
mainstreaming industry.
CRYPTO

The metaverse has struggled to gain a
foothold so far, with virtual and augmented
reality primarily limited to gaming and
entertainment. That is set to change as use
cases emerge everywhere from industrial
settings to healthcare, enterprise
collaboration and education. Experimentation
will deliver a playbook and hard numbers on
return on investment within specific verticals.
Meanwhile, hardware improvements from
consumer tech giants, and emerging tools
like generative AI, could lower the barriers to
entry and access.
METAVERSE

The decentralised finance (DeFi) market is
projected to grow from US$13.6 billion in 2022
to US$600 billion by 2032, driven by demand
for fast, feeless financial services and use
cases like lending, prediction markets,
stablecoins, the metaverse, and insurance.
Benefits like security and investment choices
entice users, but vulnerabilities and complexity
also risk losing funds irretrievably.
DECENTRALISED
FINANCE (DEFI)

Innovation hubs are emerging to foster
startups and experimentation, with the
UAE, Singapore, Switzerland, Japan and
the UK among the key jurisdictions pushing
to attract investment through
accommodative regulations, sandboxes
and industry consultation. Principle-based
regulation could provide clarity and trust
without stymying innovation.
REGULATORY
EXPERIMENTATION

INTRODUCING:
THE WEB3
DAWN

From cryptocurrencies to NFTs, the web3 is built and controlled by users while the
metaverse, a connected realm, promises to make the digital sphere increasingly ‘liveable’
and immersive. These trends have implications for brands, investors, companies of all
stripes, financial institutions, consumers and regulators.
Web3 promises to usher in a new era that will be less about centralised control by big tech
companies and more about decentralised, community-run structures. Elements of this new
era are already in place, with metaverse, crypto and DeFi tools in use across a variety of
different geographies and settings.
The implications associated with this development is a daunting prospect. Regulatory
hurdles, privacy and security are just some of the issues that will become more pronounced
as a fully-formed web3 reality looms closer into view. Making sense of how these
technologies function and the best means of employing them is a task that businesses can
no longer ignore.
The time to embrace web3 in all its market-upending glory has arrived.

MARKET
OUTLOOK:
THE METAVERSE

Estimates suggest that the metaverse will be
worth around US$800bn in 2024. The market
for AR and VR combined is projected to
generate close to US$39bn in revenue in 2024,
rising to US$58bn by 2028.

As of 2022, there were
400m active monthly
metaverse users,
contributing to a market
value of around
US$234bn in 2022, which
is expected to rise to
around US$3,409bn by
20273. However, funding
into the sector fell sharply
in 2023, mirroring the
broader economic
slowdown in startups.
FUNDING TO VC-BACKED
STARTUPS IN THE METAVERSE

THE DIVERSE POTENTIAL OF
VR & AR APPLICATIONS
Meanwhile, the size of the
metaverse in e-commerce
market is expected to grow by
37.2% from 2023 to 2029, to
over US$167bn, while the size
of the metaverse in the gaming
market, which was valued at
US$21.6bn in 2022, is
expected to reach US$563.8bn
by 2032. Both e-commerce
and gaming are traditionally
online industries, but the
market for AR/VR hardware
shows particular promise.
Predicted market size of AR/VR software for different use cases in 2025*

 Consumer tech giants are pushing the industry into
the mainstream.
 Revenue in this sector is expected to reach around
US$533.8bn by 2032, driven by the demand for users
to develop their own digital avatars for all manner of
VR and AR experiences.
 While the most widespread application for VR has
been gaming, use cases are expanding to car
manufacturers, remote office workers, virtual tourism,
immersive classroom learning experiences,
telemedicine and telehealth services, and real estate.
 Current 2023 revenue projections for the metaverse
in health and fitness stand at US$6.57bn, with
revenue from education projected to reach US$1.9bn.
AR/VR
INITIATIVES

 Data analytics, cloud computing and AI are already
being employed to varying degrees within industrial
settings, and these technologies are complementary to
the immersive 3D environments facilitated by the
industrial metaverse.
 As things stand the adoption of industrial metaverse
applications is relatively restricted to early-stage
adopters with the agility and resource base to adopt
emerging technologies.
 Concerns remain that the ecosystem remains
underdeveloped with insufficient evidence to
demonstrate return on investment.
 However, the widespread potential use cases around
VR and AR are slowly prompting increased budget
allocations to metaverse investment, with around 17%
of IT companies already investing or planning to invest.
AR/VR
INITIATIVES

Rashid Ali
CEO and Co-Founder,
Exarta
“Now you can create a virtual industrial
environment where you can walk around
and check the machines, see what’s
going on and extract data to work out
how the machines are running. You
can see whether they are running at full
capacity, or if something is not working
right. And you can get all that information
just by having a virtual digital twin.”

Sam Huber
CEO, Laundvault
“We are in the midst of a transition
from the era of speculation to the
era of utility. The use cases that we
see now are very different from
what we saw even a year ago.”

 To what extent the metaverse will evolve in the future
will be down to the regulatory tack that each
jurisdiction takes.
 Progress will largely depend on the flourishing of use
cases where the utility or ROI may not yet be
sufficiently compelling to attract mainstream consumer
attention.
 Analysis suggests that the metaverse remains dogged
by limited use cases, along with limited knowledge of
its application, a lack of consumer interest, delays to
metaverse projects announced by big tech firms, and
concerns over privacy and security.
METAVERSE
INTEGRATION

 This all feeds into a sense among businesses and
consumers that metaverse capability is still regarded as
a “nice to have”.
 Those that do engage in long-term thinking will be well-
placed to engage with a technology that remains an
enormous driver of future value-creation, opportunity
and growth.
 Around US$120 billion worth of investment has been
funnelled into the sector as of 2022.
 Firms that are in advanced preparations, planning
or execution for a host of next-generation
technologies, such as cloud computing, AI and
data analytics, will not only be best-placed to take
advantage of the metaverse, but will have the
capacity to understand its benefits and how to
integrate it into existing technology systems.
METAVERSE
INTEGRATION

MARKET
OUTLOOK:
CRYPTO

The collapse of FTX
marked a pivotal moment
for the sector, once again
bringing the lack of
regulation around crypto
activity to the attention of
investors and regulators.
Since then, investors
have adopted a holding
pattern. But the rally in
Bitcoin in late 2023 was a
sign the sector is heating
up again.
BITCOIN PRICE IN USD

BITCOIN AND
ETHEREUM
 Bitcoin and Ethereum remain popular investment
choices as the two cryptocurrencies that make up more
than two-thirds of the cryptocurrency market
capitalisation.
 The 2019-21 period saw annual Bitcoin price rises of
between 60% and 302%. While there is no guarantee of
a similar rise in prices, the long-term popularity of
Bitcoin points towards stable gains in the coming years.
 Between 2016 and 2020, Ethereum averaged price
rises of around 613% per year, marking it out as a
strong contender for growth beyond 2023.
 Much of the future success of these cryptocurrencies,
as well as other market participants and new entrants,
is dependent on the path taken by regulators.

While there appears to be a broad consensus over
the need for regulation, there is less agreement
over what approach might be sensible and
whether a workable framework exists that would
not constitute overreach or stifle innovation.

REGULATING
CRYPTO
 The balance between innovation, consumer protection
and fraud risk is one that governments are grappling with
the world over.
 Crypto is partly banned in 19 countries worldwide and
subject to a general ban in eight countries.
 There is little divergence, with only 25% of advanced
economies putting in place regulation on areas such as
taxation, anti-money laundering, consumer protection and
licencing. This falls to 16% among emerging economies.
 Many market participants claim that a lack of regulatory
clarity is hindering progress and adding to uncertainty.
 What is clear is that the difficulties facing global markets
in regulating crypto requires an urgent fix. Consumers
and investors require assurance that the market is more
stable and secure to trade with greater confidence.

BIDEN AND
TRUMP
 The Biden administration appears keen to try and
strike a balance between encouraging entrepreneurial
cryptocurrency development and regulating the market in
a way that discourages criminal activity and cybercrime.
 At the forefront of the administration’s agenda is the
desire to seek out a set of crypto policies with a global
reach that makes it difficult for international actors to use
crypto for nefarious purposes.
 Donald Trump, the frontrunner for the Republican
nomination for the 2024 US presidential election, took a
dismissive stance towards crypto during his previous
administration. But should he win in November, his
stance is expected to be more accommodating.
 The general consensus among Republicans that are
closest to Trump is that any policy proposal would
ensure that a nascent industry is allowed to flourish, but
not at the expense of adequate consumer protections.

MARKET
OUTLOOK:
DEFI

Estimates suggest that the global DeFi
market size will grow from around US$13.6bn
in 2022 to reach US$600bn by 2032.

MARKET
OUTLOOK:
DEFI
 The global DeFi market is set to surge over the next
decade on the back of growing demand for decentralised
financial services that allow a broader range of
individuals to carry out feeless transactions at speed.
 But financial services is not the only use case for
decentralised technology. Decentralised exchanges
(DEX) are a more informal way for investors to trade
assets by eliminating intermediaries.
 Other use cases for DeFi include lending, decentralised
derivatives platforms, prediction markets, stablecoins, the
metaverse, and a new model for the insurance sector in
which blockchain is used to iron out existing market
inefficiencies.

DEFI
TECHNOLOGY
 While DeFi opens up investment to a potential mass
market, the current market for DeFi remains somewhat
underdeveloped.
 But that may just be a matter of time. The benefits of
DeFi technology are clear - their global scope, the
security of being able to store currency in a cryptowallet
and the ability to use DeFi to trade in a range of
tokenised assets, including stocks and funds.
 However, one of the biggest areas of contention is the
lack of infrastructure and regulation.
 DeFi activity can be subject to the same price volatility as
crypto, while smart contracts can be affected by
vulnerabilities in the code that underpins them.

DESIGNING THE
DECENTRALISED
DIGITAL ECONOMY:
THE ROAD AHEAD

THE AI
FACTOR
 The next decade will be defined by three mega
technology trends—cloud, metaverse and AI—which
collectively will collapse the distance of our digital and
physical worlds.
 Generative AI is a catalyst to accelerating 3D creation for
all, enabling people to describe what they want and have
AI generate templates for 3D assets and environments
rather than building pixel by pixel.
 This will help the metaverse to scale across users and
environments as needed, while keeping costs down.
 While generative AI will have far-reaching impact, leaders
must dive in now to achieve its full promise.
 Companies wishing to realise the full potential of the
metaverse should also be cognisant of the need to develop
generative AI capability, as this will grant them the ability to
take use cases to market with greater ease and speed.

METAVERSE –
ONLY VIRTUAL
REALITY?
 While the many use cases for metaverse technology
show promise, the affordability and features of the
metaverse might, at this stage, limit its appeal and
adoption.
 As technology improves, and the path to embedding the
metaverse in a variety of different formats and scenarios
becomes clearer, companies may seek to bolster their
metaverse capabilities once more.
 But as even Meta executives have previously admitted,
the full potential of the metaverse may not be realised for
another 10-15 years.

HYPE
CYCLE
“You have this hype cycle and you think: this
technology is going to change everything for
everyone tomorrow. Under the hood, the cycles
go really high and really low, and they are getting
faster, but now we are reaching a plateau.”
– Sam Huber, CEO, Laundvault
“We should wait until the hype comes down a little
bit. Then you’ll see the real utility companies out
there that are building something people can
actually use in different use cases.”
– Rashid Ali, CEO and Co-Founder, Exarta

METAVERSE: THE LAND OF OPPORTUNITY
Forecast total addressable metaverse market, by scenario*

FUTURE
INNOVATION
Where both crypto and the
metaverse sit on the technology
adoption curve is consistent
with a technology that is met
with enthusiasm by early
adopters, but embraced
cautiously by those waiting for
more case studies and real-life
user experiences to emerge.

AKSHAY BD
Head of International
Expansion and Advisor,
Solana Foundation
“Optimism gets overextended just as much
as pessimism. Having two years of little to no
capital has ensured that founders are in it for
the right reasons and against the odds have
continued to fight and survive, so you have a
better signal to noise ratio. It also forces you
to ship products. In a bull market you are
distracted with fundraising, marketing and
avalanche of attention.”

MARIO CASIRAGHI
Chief Financial Officer,
SingularityNET
“It’s still a very early industry. If you look
around, money has been made, but big
disruptors haven’t really happened yet.”

REGULATORY
EXPERIMENTATION

UAE / MENA

The UAE is leading the way on crypto
regulation, which is understandable given the
higher share of crypto activity taking place in
the country, relative to its neighbours. This is in
part due to its innovation-friendly regulatory
approach, which seeks to attract investors,
tech entrepreneurs and crypto innovators to
the country, combined with efforts to balance
the need for consumer protection.
UAE / MENA

UAE / MENA
 The Middle East represents one of the fastest
growing cryptocurrency markets in the world,
making up 7% of global trading volumes.
 The UAE’s share is significant, registering around
US$25 billion in transactions in 2022. In the region,
it ranks third behind Turkey, which had US$132
billion in transaction volumes, with Lebanon at
US$26 billion.
 The Emirati dirham remains a relatively stable
currency, pegged to the US dollar and with low
inflationary conditions.
 Estimates suggest there are more than 1,800
blockchain-related businesses operating out of the
UAE as of March 2023, with around 770
businesses located in Dubai alone.

UAE / MENA
 In fact, the Abu Dhabi Global Market (ADGM)
was the first organisation in the world to establish
a regulatory framework for cryptocurrency in
2018, which was followed by Dubai’s Virtual
Asset Regulatory Authority (VARA) in 2022.
 The wider Gulf region is currently pushing
innovation with government support and is
expected to lead in government use cases in the
next 10-15 years.
 This rapid evolution into a crypto hub is in large
part thanks to its accommodative stance on
regulation and policy. This has translated into a
surge of interest from crypto companies in the
Middle East.

Metaverse adoption
Government, enterprises, retail and real estate are all
investing in and embracing the metaverse, while the
UAE’s regulation appears to be more about overseeing
the crypto sector rather than curbing it. The
establishment of a framework and an organisation
tasked with ensuring regulatory oversight has been
further supported by the passing of several crypto
regulations at the federal level in 2023, granting
regulators like VARA more flexibility in how they regulate
crypto in a way that attracts investment and protects
consumer interests.
UAE / MENA

UAE / MENA
Web3 ecosystem development
The UAE supports the global web3 industry through
dedicated ecosystems on the ground. The DMCC Crypto
Centre is one such example. Developed by DMCC (Dubai
Multi Commodities Centre), the centre is a comprehensive
ecosystem for companies that develop web3 and blockchain
technologies, as well as associated value-added services,
providing everything that crypto businesses and
entrepreneurs need to globally scale their operations.
Through a bespoke industry clustering model, DMCC’s
ecosystems support sectors like crypto through enhanced
collaboration and networking, education and knowledge
sharing, content development, events and seminars, access
to over $150 million capital and accelerator funds through
global investors, and other unique service arrangements
through a network of ecosystem partners.

UNITED STATES

UNITED
STATES
 In the US, the fallout from FTX is still being felt across
the market, with regulators adopting a more cautious
and stringent approach to cryptocurrency regulation.
 The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is
trying to tighten regulatory conditions in order to prevent
fraud, reduce market manipulation and improve
transparency, primarily by forcing greater disclosure of
information for investors and holders of cryptocurrency.
 The US Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB)
has proposed accounting and reporting guidance for
certain assets, but federal agencies have yet to reach a
consensus and little regulatory progress has been made.
 While the overall picture is unclear, the general direction of
travel is towards more regulation but for now it will resemble
something piecemeal until such time as regulatory
responsibility is apportioned to a particular organisation.

EUROPE

EUROPE
 The EU is setting itself up to be the first global
jurisdiction to put in place a comprehensive
cryptocurrency regulatory framework.
 The European and Securities and Markets Authority
(ESMA) is currently in the advanced stages of finalising
its new Markets in Crypto Assets Regulation (MiCA).
 The key provisions of MiCA apply to transparency,
disclosure, authorisation and supervision of transactions
for those involved in issuing or trading in crypto assets.
 The EU’s move typifies its desire to carry out the “first-mover
advantage” when it comes to digital regulation. Consumer
protection and transparency are guiding principles.
 Although MiCA is expected to fully apply at the end of
December 2024, further targeted regulation around
issues such as money laundering, tax avoidance, bank
capital, cybersecurity and distributed ledger technology-
based securities trading is also expected in future.

ASIA

VIETNAM
 Vietnam is a particularly strong adopter of crypto, with
crypto usage among the population approximating 22%,
second only to the UAE.
 A fluctuating currency and inflation have broadened the
appeal of crypto. Crypto assets are untaxed and
unregulated, while the country’s large unbanked
population (around 70%) means that remittances are
high. Play-to-earn gaming is also rewarded in crypto.
 However, the regulatory situation is likely to change in the
near future. Anti-money laundering legislation that
incorporates know-your-customer measures came into
effect in 2023.
 Meanwhile a legal framework is currently under
consideration that would define and classify crypto assets
so they can be regulated and monitored effectively.

SOUTH
KOREA
 In South Korea, crypto has been rising in popularity, but
the collapse in May 2022 of stablecoin TerraUSD, placed
crypto in the crosshairs of the government.
 Both before and after this incident, the Korean authorities
took a stringent approach to crypto regulation, focused on
transparency, reporting guidelines and anti-money
laundering legislation.
 Regulatory prospects now appear to be moving in a more
nuanced direction. In December 2023 the Financial
Services Commission claimed that the authorities would
attempt to balance the need for investor protection with
innovation.
 Legislation targeting regulatory control over virtual assets
to deliver enhanced investor protection was agreed in
2023 and will come into force in July 2024.

SINGAPORE
 As part of broader efforts to leverage digital innovation
to strengthen its position as an international financial
hub, Singapore has played a leading role in boosting
crypto adoption in the Asia region.
 A highly connected population, combined with a fiscal
framework in which investors do not have to pay capital
gains tax, has made crypto an appealing proposition.
 However, progress has been hampered by the financial
and legal troubles of several major crypto players in
2022 and 2023.
 Regulatory conditions in Singapore have largely focused
on maintaining some control over the industry and
supporting the development of crypto-related activities
 The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) has said that it
plans to roll out new safeguards to protect investors. The
new measures will come into force in mid-2024.

CHINA
 Contrary to the rest of the region, crypto trading and
mining has been banned in China since 2021, and there
are strict controls on movement of capital cross border.
 In spite of this, Chinese investors have been using
creative ways to circumvent the restrictions, in light of
challenging conditions in the domestic stock and
property markets.
 The situation looks to be changing, however, with the
ministry of industry and information technology stating in
November 2023 that it will give the go-ahead to the
development of NFTs and associated decentralised
blockchain applications.
 Exploration of the metaverse and its possible
applications will also be on the agenda.

THAILAND
 Thailand was among the first to regulate crypto,
which took off initially during the covid-19 pandemic,
and later that year registered the highest number of
NFT users in the world, at 5.7 million.
 The government has been supportive of crypto
development, and in January 2024 published plans
for an updated regulatory framework that includes
more crypto-friendly regulation.
 Among the measures included in the framework are
a removal of investor limits for digital tokens, new
rules around custodians and a broader role for the
country’s Securities & Exchange Commission (SEC)
in monitoring the digital asset industry.

JAPAN
 True to its nature as an early adopter of digital innovation,
Japan quickly embraced crypto during the early days of
its introduction.
 While regulators do not recognise crypto as money or an
asset in any way associated with fiat currency, bitcoin is
recognised as legal tender, although regulation is stricter
than in neighbouring jurisdictions.
 One area where Japan is ahead of the curve is with the
regulation of stablecoin, where a new law took effect in
June 2023.
 The regulation primarily limits the entities that can issue
stablecoins to banks, trust companies and fund transfer
services, and issuers must establish a trust to
disseminate stablecoins. The regulation is intended to
provide a basis for the launch of stablecoins by mid-2024.

CONCLUSION AND
RECOMMENDATIONS

Regulation may be perceived as threatening
to an industry preoccupied with encouraging
innovation. But regulation need not be
regarded as either daunting or restrictive for a
nascent industry. Any friction caused by the
introduction of regulation is offset by
increasing knowledge of the crypto space,
which is reflected in the quality and scope of
the regulatory frameworks that are being
developed to manage these emerging
technological spaces.

Governments across jurisdictions can best
encourage further development of the market by
creating a principle-based regulatory framework that
protects consumers. But it must be devised in a way
that prioritises, encourages and supports
innovation, and recognises the innate potential of
crypto and metaverse technologies. They should
look to ‘consultative regulation’, including through
sandboxes, and focus on principles rather than
highly specific legal frameworks.
USE PRINCIPLE-
BASED
REGULATION THAT
PRIORITISES AND
SUPPORTS
INNOVATION
INDUSTRY RECOMMENDATIONS

Engagement between governments, prospective
market entrants, existing market participants and
other industry stakeholders is critical to web3
development. All stakeholders should engage with
one another in a meaningful way and on a regular
basis to ensure that market developments and issues
are dealt with swiftly and effectively, and to improve
public awareness and education about risks.
INCREASE AND
MAINTAIN
ENGAGEMENT
FROM PUBLIC AND
PRIVATE
STAKEHOLDERS

Dedicated sector ecosystems act as a catalyst for
innovation through industrial clustering at the regional
level. The DMCC Crypto Centre in Dubai counts 600
members across web3 in crypto, blockchain, and
metaverse, as well as a number of high level
ecosystem partners among the biggest names in the
industry. This facilitates greater knowledge exchange,
education, access to capital and talent, ultimately
making it easier for startups to grow and tap into
global business networks.
PROMOTE
WEB3
INNOVATION
THROUGH
INDUSTRIAL
CLUSTERING

Education should be a focus for both the industry and
national governments, ensuring that industries
understand web3 technologies and can leverage them
for their benefit. Nurturing new tech talent, as well as
devoting time and resources to in-house training, will
put countries at a competitive advantage in terms of
their human capital, while at an organisational level,
employees will be knowledgeable and well-versed in
web3 and metaverse technologies.
PRIORITISE
EDUCATION AND
RECRUITMENT
AS THE KEY TO
WEB3 GROWTH

Both crypto and the metaverse are technologies
whose benefits will be felt over the long-term.
Companies that are willing to invest and understand
how markets operate will be best placed to reap the
financial rewards of these technologies in the future.
Those unwilling to invest leave themselves at
considerable risk of being left behind relative to their
nearest competitors.
PROVIDE
SUSTAINED LONG-
TERM INVESTMENT
TO REALISE
BENEFITS OF
WEB3

In light of the long-term nature of these technologies,
and the underdeveloped nature of the current use
cases associated with them, it is critical for companies
to kickstart immediate preparations for web3 adoption
through investment, training and board-level
strategies that seek to better understand how these
technologies will shape their organisation and the
markets they operate in. Any delay places a business
at considerable risk of competitive disadvantage.
DEVELOP WEB3
ADOPTION AND
SCALABILITY
PLANS NOW TO
DEVELOP THE
SECTOR

About DMCC
Headquartered in Dubai, DMCC is the world’s most interconnected Free Zone, and the leading trade and enterprise hub for commodities. Whether developing
vibrant neighbourhoods with world-class property, or delivering high performance business services, DMCC provides everything its dynamic community needs to
live, work and thrive. Made for Trade, DMCC is proud to sustain and grow Dubai’s position as the place to be for global trade today and long into the future.

DMCC Future of Trade Web3

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