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1© Ricardo-AEA LtdRicardo Energy & Environment in Confidence
Development and validation of a
rapid urban scale dispersion
modelling platform
Scott Hamilton
Ricardo, UK
Nicola Masey, Iain Beverland
University of Strathclyde, UK
2© Ricardo-AEA LtdRicardo Energy & Environment in Confidence
Ricardo team:
Scott Hamilton,
Andy Lewin
Celine Bouvet
University of Strathclyde team:
Nicola Masey
Iain Beverland
THANKS!
3© Ricardo-AEA LtdRicardo Energy & Environment in Confidence
Some very important acknowledgements
• USEPA- thankyou for AERMOD, AERMET and
MMIF, and educational resources
• CMAS- thankyou for the models, tools and training
resources (and CMAS conference!)
• NOAA- thankyou for the excellent meteorological
data repository
• UK Met Office- thankyou for the UK met
observations and street canyon research/models
• UK DEFRA- thankyou for all the air quality
observations, pollution mapping and inventories
• OSGeo project- thankyou for GDAL
• Python developers- thankyou for all the amazing
libraries, and for making them open
4© Ricardo-AEA LtdRicardo Energy & Environment in Confidence
Too long didn’t read (TL;DR)
What is RapidAir?
Dispersion model which also eases the workflow for such modelling in cities and regions.
Some neat things it does:
• Traffic emissions (1 million links in 1 minute)
• Road dispersion model including canyons
• Area source model e.g. for large dispersed sources (e.g. domestic)
• Unlimited domain size and resolution (testing with 3 billion locations)
• Domain splitting to account for size, variations in physical parameters
• Met data- met data gathering, filling, substitution, running AERMET
• Automatic handling of background values (in the UK)
• Model validation is automatic with calculation of error metrics (biases, r2, etc)
• Model scaling can be done automatically
• Empirical NOx NO2 chemistry (based on OLS model of background, fNO2, road NOx)
• Interactive plotting (in a web browser dashboard)
• GUI driven option (in a web browser dashboard)
The modeller has no choice but to embed a completely reproducible workflow. We can recreate
their results from a single text file. QA is easy!!
5© Ricardo-AEA LtdRicardo Energy & Environment in Confidence
Data
RapidAir NO2 model
RapidAir NO2 in a GIS
RapidAir NO2 in a GIS
RapidAir NO2 in Google Earth
RapidAir NO2 in Google Earth
Mostly it’s a dispersion model we’re using in large
urban areas- this is London
6© Ricardo-AEA LtdRicardo Energy & Environment in Confidence
A golden age of scientific computing resources
Python 2.7 is the main glue language performing all of the computation in our model
We can now manage “big” environmental data in a manageable and reproducible way using
open source technology. This is needed for such large, high resolution models with hundreds
of millions of data points.
An example of the power of the methods is the use of python and it’s NumPy and Pandas
modules to develop pyCOPERT, a road traffic emissions inventory tool in RapidAir. The model
can calculate emissions of NOx, PM10, PM2.5 and CO from >1 million road links in <60
seconds.
7© Ricardo-AEA LtdRicardo Energy & Environment in Confidence
Motivation for developing the model
• We needed a cost effective
but robust emissions and
dispersion model for our
consulting projects
• We wanted a platform we
could integrate into a
‘software as a service’
offering in future
• So we set to work….
• We wrote a lot of code….
8© Ricardo-AEA LtdRicardo Energy & Environment in Confidence
More background
• So far we’ve used the system in the UK, Middle East, China with much more to come.
• The system utilises the USEPA AERMET and AERMOD modelling suites for both
stationary and non-stationary sources at the city scale
• The road traffic module follows guidance laid out by the USEPA in their Hotspot
Conformity series
• We have coupled this to the latest emission convolution modelling methods to create
lightning fast dispersion modelling functionality for road transport emissions
• Model performance is judged based on the usual metrics such as Root Mean Square
Error, Mean Bias, Index of Agreement and Coefficient of Efficiency- we take model
performance very seriously
• We believe that sophisticated models must be supported by compelling data visualisations
to encourage engagement by decision makers and the public, so we spend a lot of time
thinking about this… more later…
9© Ricardo-AEA LtdRicardo Energy & Environment in Confidence
Our custom python modules
Met
Met processor
Controlling USEPA
AERMET. Running
WRF, generating
forecast weather
Point
Models point
sources
Controlling USEPA
AERMOD
Road
pyCOPERT
emission model
Road source
dispersion model
Compute and
disperse road
emissions-
including canyons
Stat
Model evaluation
Test model vs
observations
Vis
Mapping
Present
raster/point data
via
GIS/webmap
Module
Description
Function
Met files
.sfc
.pfl
Gridded pollution
fields
Mapped
concentrations
+ GIS data
Statistical
outputs / decision
points
Gridded pollution
Fields
Data
products
Data flows
(white for
met, blue
for concs)
.txt files .txt, .tiff files .tiff files .csv .tif
.shp
10© Ricardo-AEA LtdRicardo Energy & Environment in Confidence
Representative workflow- emissions
Road polylines (.shp)
Road points (.shp)
Road emission grid (.tif)
11© Ricardo-AEA LtdRicardo Energy & Environment in Confidence
Representative workflow- concentrations
Road emission grid (.tif)
AERMOD kernel
Concentration surface
Not to scale
12© Ricardo-AEA LtdRicardo Energy & Environment in Confidence
London study
We modelled concentrations of NOx and
NO2 in Greater London.
This was the study area used in a
previous Department for Environment,
Food and Rural Affairs (DEFRA) Urban
Model Evaluation exercise, which evaluated
several existing models (Carslaw, 2011).
We modelled annual average NOx and
NO2 concentrations for 2008; the same
year used by the DEFRA study to enable
statistical comparison between RapidAir
and the models assessed in the DEFRA
comparison.
We evaluated the model at 86 continuous
monitoring locations from the London Air
Quality Network (LAQN) monitoring
network.
13© Ricardo-AEA LtdRicardo Energy & Environment in Confidence
London study (no canyon treatment)
14© Ricardo-AEA LtdRicardo Energy & Environment in Confidence
Map of RapidAir predicted NOx concentrations after
correction for SVF
SVF image (range 0 – 1)
Geospatial surrogates example for street canyon treatment
15© Ricardo-AEA LtdRicardo Energy & Environment in Confidence
London study (with canyon treatment)
NO2 estimated by RapidAir kernel model vs.
observed concentrations (NO2) (n = 86): (a)
uncorrected concentrations from the base-kernel
model; and the kernel model after correction using the
surrogates for street canyons: (b) sky view factor
(SVF), (c) hill shading (HS), (d) wind effect (WE), (e)
STREET canyon model and (f) AEOLIUS canyon
model.
16© Ricardo-AEA LtdRicardo Energy & Environment in Confidence
London study conclusions
The performance was very similar to those computed for other
dispersion modelling systems in their DEFRA inter comparison
exercise. https://uk-air.defra.gov.uk/library/reports?report_id=777
The performance statistics for the surrogates for urban morphology are reasonably close to
those from the models which treat canyons discretely.
For NO2 compliance assessment RapidAir could be used with either the STREET or
AEOLIUS model options switched on as they perform well.
The model results should be compared with measured concentrations and the modeler may
choose the best performing street canyon model for their case.
The surrogate canyon models could be used as screening tools and perhaps to spatially
delineate locations where the street canyon models should be invoked.
17© Ricardo-AEA LtdRicardo Energy & Environment in Confidence
UK Projects- example
Ricardo recently developed a
RapidAir model for Fife Council. The
project was funded by the Scottish
Government air quality grants
scheme.
The model has a resolution of 3m
(>300million prediction points) and
covers the whole Kingdom. Data
products include common GIS
formats, Google Earth layers,
interactive report including OpenAir.
18© Ricardo-AEA LtdRicardo Energy & Environment in Confidence
NO2 annual mean concentrations in building footprints, 2008
UK example, concentrations in building footprints
19© Ricardo-AEA LtdRicardo Energy & Environment in Confidence
Partnership with University of Strathclyde
Nicola now works with me in
the modelling group at
Ricardo.
20© Ricardo-AEA LtdRicardo Energy & Environment in Confidence
https://www.informationisbeautifulawards.com/showcase/1614-3d-visualisation-of-air-pollution-in-glasgow
http://www.trudihannah.com/#/pollutionvisualisation/
Results from a Ricardo collaboration with
Trudi Hannah at Glasgow School of Art.
21© Ricardo-AEA LtdRicardo Energy & Environment in Confidence
Next steps- integration with operational WRF/CMAQ
WRF CMAQ
RapidAir at finer temporal
resolution using predicted
meteorology
We’re pretty close to having this going with some validation results but I couldn’t get it
done in time for the conference.
22© Ricardo-AEA LtdRicardo Energy & Environment in Confidence
Thanks!
23© Ricardo-AEA LtdRicardo Energy & Environment in Confidence
Scott Hamilton, PhD
Ricardo Energy and Environment
Scott.Hamilton@ricardo.com

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Development and validation of a rapid urban scale dispersion modelling platform

  • 1. 1© Ricardo-AEA LtdRicardo Energy & Environment in Confidence Development and validation of a rapid urban scale dispersion modelling platform Scott Hamilton Ricardo, UK Nicola Masey, Iain Beverland University of Strathclyde, UK
  • 2. 2© Ricardo-AEA LtdRicardo Energy & Environment in Confidence Ricardo team: Scott Hamilton, Andy Lewin Celine Bouvet University of Strathclyde team: Nicola Masey Iain Beverland THANKS!
  • 3. 3© Ricardo-AEA LtdRicardo Energy & Environment in Confidence Some very important acknowledgements • USEPA- thankyou for AERMOD, AERMET and MMIF, and educational resources • CMAS- thankyou for the models, tools and training resources (and CMAS conference!) • NOAA- thankyou for the excellent meteorological data repository • UK Met Office- thankyou for the UK met observations and street canyon research/models • UK DEFRA- thankyou for all the air quality observations, pollution mapping and inventories • OSGeo project- thankyou for GDAL • Python developers- thankyou for all the amazing libraries, and for making them open
  • 4. 4© Ricardo-AEA LtdRicardo Energy & Environment in Confidence Too long didn’t read (TL;DR) What is RapidAir? Dispersion model which also eases the workflow for such modelling in cities and regions. Some neat things it does: • Traffic emissions (1 million links in 1 minute) • Road dispersion model including canyons • Area source model e.g. for large dispersed sources (e.g. domestic) • Unlimited domain size and resolution (testing with 3 billion locations) • Domain splitting to account for size, variations in physical parameters • Met data- met data gathering, filling, substitution, running AERMET • Automatic handling of background values (in the UK) • Model validation is automatic with calculation of error metrics (biases, r2, etc) • Model scaling can be done automatically • Empirical NOx NO2 chemistry (based on OLS model of background, fNO2, road NOx) • Interactive plotting (in a web browser dashboard) • GUI driven option (in a web browser dashboard) The modeller has no choice but to embed a completely reproducible workflow. We can recreate their results from a single text file. QA is easy!!
  • 5. 5© Ricardo-AEA LtdRicardo Energy & Environment in Confidence Data RapidAir NO2 model RapidAir NO2 in a GIS RapidAir NO2 in a GIS RapidAir NO2 in Google Earth RapidAir NO2 in Google Earth Mostly it’s a dispersion model we’re using in large urban areas- this is London
  • 6. 6© Ricardo-AEA LtdRicardo Energy & Environment in Confidence A golden age of scientific computing resources Python 2.7 is the main glue language performing all of the computation in our model We can now manage “big” environmental data in a manageable and reproducible way using open source technology. This is needed for such large, high resolution models with hundreds of millions of data points. An example of the power of the methods is the use of python and it’s NumPy and Pandas modules to develop pyCOPERT, a road traffic emissions inventory tool in RapidAir. The model can calculate emissions of NOx, PM10, PM2.5 and CO from >1 million road links in <60 seconds.
  • 7. 7© Ricardo-AEA LtdRicardo Energy & Environment in Confidence Motivation for developing the model • We needed a cost effective but robust emissions and dispersion model for our consulting projects • We wanted a platform we could integrate into a ‘software as a service’ offering in future • So we set to work…. • We wrote a lot of code….
  • 8. 8© Ricardo-AEA LtdRicardo Energy & Environment in Confidence More background • So far we’ve used the system in the UK, Middle East, China with much more to come. • The system utilises the USEPA AERMET and AERMOD modelling suites for both stationary and non-stationary sources at the city scale • The road traffic module follows guidance laid out by the USEPA in their Hotspot Conformity series • We have coupled this to the latest emission convolution modelling methods to create lightning fast dispersion modelling functionality for road transport emissions • Model performance is judged based on the usual metrics such as Root Mean Square Error, Mean Bias, Index of Agreement and Coefficient of Efficiency- we take model performance very seriously • We believe that sophisticated models must be supported by compelling data visualisations to encourage engagement by decision makers and the public, so we spend a lot of time thinking about this… more later…
  • 9. 9© Ricardo-AEA LtdRicardo Energy & Environment in Confidence Our custom python modules Met Met processor Controlling USEPA AERMET. Running WRF, generating forecast weather Point Models point sources Controlling USEPA AERMOD Road pyCOPERT emission model Road source dispersion model Compute and disperse road emissions- including canyons Stat Model evaluation Test model vs observations Vis Mapping Present raster/point data via GIS/webmap Module Description Function Met files .sfc .pfl Gridded pollution fields Mapped concentrations + GIS data Statistical outputs / decision points Gridded pollution Fields Data products Data flows (white for met, blue for concs) .txt files .txt, .tiff files .tiff files .csv .tif .shp
  • 10. 10© Ricardo-AEA LtdRicardo Energy & Environment in Confidence Representative workflow- emissions Road polylines (.shp) Road points (.shp) Road emission grid (.tif)
  • 11. 11© Ricardo-AEA LtdRicardo Energy & Environment in Confidence Representative workflow- concentrations Road emission grid (.tif) AERMOD kernel Concentration surface Not to scale
  • 12. 12© Ricardo-AEA LtdRicardo Energy & Environment in Confidence London study We modelled concentrations of NOx and NO2 in Greater London. This was the study area used in a previous Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (DEFRA) Urban Model Evaluation exercise, which evaluated several existing models (Carslaw, 2011). We modelled annual average NOx and NO2 concentrations for 2008; the same year used by the DEFRA study to enable statistical comparison between RapidAir and the models assessed in the DEFRA comparison. We evaluated the model at 86 continuous monitoring locations from the London Air Quality Network (LAQN) monitoring network.
  • 13. 13© Ricardo-AEA LtdRicardo Energy & Environment in Confidence London study (no canyon treatment)
  • 14. 14© Ricardo-AEA LtdRicardo Energy & Environment in Confidence Map of RapidAir predicted NOx concentrations after correction for SVF SVF image (range 0 – 1) Geospatial surrogates example for street canyon treatment
  • 15. 15© Ricardo-AEA LtdRicardo Energy & Environment in Confidence London study (with canyon treatment) NO2 estimated by RapidAir kernel model vs. observed concentrations (NO2) (n = 86): (a) uncorrected concentrations from the base-kernel model; and the kernel model after correction using the surrogates for street canyons: (b) sky view factor (SVF), (c) hill shading (HS), (d) wind effect (WE), (e) STREET canyon model and (f) AEOLIUS canyon model.
  • 16. 16© Ricardo-AEA LtdRicardo Energy & Environment in Confidence London study conclusions The performance was very similar to those computed for other dispersion modelling systems in their DEFRA inter comparison exercise. https://uk-air.defra.gov.uk/library/reports?report_id=777 The performance statistics for the surrogates for urban morphology are reasonably close to those from the models which treat canyons discretely. For NO2 compliance assessment RapidAir could be used with either the STREET or AEOLIUS model options switched on as they perform well. The model results should be compared with measured concentrations and the modeler may choose the best performing street canyon model for their case. The surrogate canyon models could be used as screening tools and perhaps to spatially delineate locations where the street canyon models should be invoked.
  • 17. 17© Ricardo-AEA LtdRicardo Energy & Environment in Confidence UK Projects- example Ricardo recently developed a RapidAir model for Fife Council. The project was funded by the Scottish Government air quality grants scheme. The model has a resolution of 3m (>300million prediction points) and covers the whole Kingdom. Data products include common GIS formats, Google Earth layers, interactive report including OpenAir.
  • 18. 18© Ricardo-AEA LtdRicardo Energy & Environment in Confidence NO2 annual mean concentrations in building footprints, 2008 UK example, concentrations in building footprints
  • 19. 19© Ricardo-AEA LtdRicardo Energy & Environment in Confidence Partnership with University of Strathclyde Nicola now works with me in the modelling group at Ricardo.
  • 20. 20© Ricardo-AEA LtdRicardo Energy & Environment in Confidence https://www.informationisbeautifulawards.com/showcase/1614-3d-visualisation-of-air-pollution-in-glasgow http://www.trudihannah.com/#/pollutionvisualisation/ Results from a Ricardo collaboration with Trudi Hannah at Glasgow School of Art.
  • 21. 21© Ricardo-AEA LtdRicardo Energy & Environment in Confidence Next steps- integration with operational WRF/CMAQ WRF CMAQ RapidAir at finer temporal resolution using predicted meteorology We’re pretty close to having this going with some validation results but I couldn’t get it done in time for the conference.
  • 22. 22© Ricardo-AEA LtdRicardo Energy & Environment in Confidence Thanks!
  • 23. 23© Ricardo-AEA LtdRicardo Energy & Environment in Confidence Scott Hamilton, PhD Ricardo Energy and Environment Scott.Hamilton@ricardo.com

Editor's Notes

  1. Mention David Carslaw, author of openair, acts as an advisor on the rapidair project
  2. Without this spirit of openness and sharing commercial companies like ours would struggle to innovate and create wealth, jobs and educational opportunities. We can make cool things like these images, but we re truly standing on the shoulders of giants. With that comes some social responsibility that I take very seriously. I’m very far away so I try to give back via my links to education in my home city.
  3. Open source tools and programming languages are revolutionising industries which rely on data, the power of the tools that are available to anyone free of charge is staggering, and the capacity to innovate using them is unlimited. In our small corner of the data space we use a host of excellent open source tools to do our work. The contributions of these developers and groups cannot be overstated, and their value will only grow. For example the Jupyter Notebook is changing the way scientists of all disciplines share code and collaborate. Its quickly become my group’s go to tool for any work that needs a combination of data, code and outputs; reproducibility is very easy to achieve.
  4. The modules will be optional, we can include things like WRF modelling and CMAQ which would provide for forecasting capability.- WRF would provide the met data to feed the various local scale models, with CMAQ providing background pollution. CMAQ would need a decent emissions inventory of course but we did this in China with a quite basic emissions inventory covering all of Asia.
  5. Open source tools and programming languages are revolutionising industries which rely on data, the power of the tools that are available to anyone free of charge is staggering, and the capacity to innovate using them is unlimited. In our small corner of the data space we use a host of excellent open source tools to do our work. The contributions of these developers and groups cannot be overstated, and their value will only grow. For example the Jupyter Notebook is changing the way scientists of all disciplines share code and collaborate. Its quickly become my group’s go to tool for any work that needs a combination of data, code and outputs; reproducibility is very easy to achieve.
  6. Open source tools and programming languages are revolutionising industries which rely on data, the power of the tools that are available to anyone free of charge is staggering, and the capacity to innovate using them is unlimited. In our small corner of the data space we use a host of excellent open source tools to do our work. The contributions of these developers and groups cannot be overstated, and their value will only grow. For example the Jupyter Notebook is changing the way scientists of all disciplines share code and collaborate. Its quickly become my group’s go to tool for any work that needs a combination of data, code and outputs; reproducibility is very easy to achieve.
  7. We made a league table of polluted famous buildings, we didn’t publish that
  8. This slide shows the results of a collaboration between Scott Hamilton of Ricardo and Glasgow School of Art’s Trudi Hannah. The slide shows a physical model of air pollution created from a RapidAir model result, and an engagement project for children where they can control the speed of a set of lungs breathing at rates associated with high levels of air pollution.