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Intentional Decision Making
Making Decisions to Reach Your Goals
Agnes Vishnevkin, MBA
DECISIONS
How do we make them?
What tools can we use
to do better?
MAKING DECISIONS
• Past
• What happened?
• How did you think and feel about it?
• Future
• What do you want?
• Experiment with different futures
• Present
• Make decisions to move toward Future
MAKING DECISIONS
What is a good decision?
• Depends on how decision was made
• Use probability to make better
decision
HOW DOES OUR MIND WORK?
SYSTEM 1
AUTOPILOT
SYSTEM 2
INTENTIONAL
HOW DOES OUR MIND WORK?
SYSTEM 1
AUTOPILOT
Subconscious
Automatic
Fast
Intuitive
Emotional
SYSTEM 2
INTENTIONAL
Conscious
Mindful
Slow
Reasoning
Logical
HOW DOES OUR MIND WORK?
SYSTEM 1
AUTOPILOT
Automatic thoughts
& feelings
Subconscious
beliefs &
assumptions
Habits
SYSTEM 2
INTENTIONAL
Choosing to pay
attention
Our sense of Self
HOW DOES OUR MIND WORK?
SYSTEM 1
AUTOPILOT
Elephant
SYSTEM 2
INTENTIONAL
Elephant Rider
HOW DOES OUR MIND WORK?
SYSTEM 1
AUTOPILOT
Uses little energy
Runs all the time
SYSTEM 2
INTENTIONAL
Uses a lot of energy
Runs in low-effort
mode
HOW DOES OUR MIND WORK?
SYSTEM 2 IS ACTIVATED WHEN…
System 1 runs into difficulty
Learning new information
Awareness of potential for error
HOW DOES OUR MIND WORK?
SYSTEM 1
AUTOPILOT
Usually makes good
decisions
Errors are often
predictable:
• emotional issues
• assessing
probabilities
SYSTEM 2
INTENTIONAL
Can prevent System 1
errors
Needs to be activated
first
Requires intentional
focus
PREDICTABLE ERRORS
Wishful thinking.
Planning Fallacy
We intuitively assume that everything will go
perfectly according to plan.
We often don’t plan for extra time and
resources to be prepared for possibility of
unforeseen events.
PREDICTABLE ERRORS
Throwing good money after bad.
Sunk Cost Fallacy
If we invested a lot into getting something, we
tend to be reluctant to give it up.
PREDICTABLE ERRORS
Eat, drink, and be merry, for tomorrow we
may die.
Hyperbolic Discounting
We tend to prefer smaller payoffs now over
larger payoffs later.
STRATEGIES
Focus on Your Long-Term Goals
Reframe Your Perspective
• Ask Why? Ask Why Not?
• Outside perspective
• Be self-aware
STRATEGIES
Future Scenario method
• Think of what “might” happen in the future
• How likely or unlikely are these
possibilities?
• Focus on undesirable outcomes
• What might cause them?
• How can you prepare?
RESOURCES
Center for Applied Rationality
www.cfar.org
Columbus Rationality Facebook group
http://ow.ly/vfBdO
Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality
www.hpmor.com
Less Wrong
www.lesswrong.com

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Intentional Decision Making: Making Decisions to Reach Your Goals

  • 1. Intentional Decision Making Making Decisions to Reach Your Goals Agnes Vishnevkin, MBA
  • 2. DECISIONS How do we make them? What tools can we use to do better?
  • 3. MAKING DECISIONS • Past • What happened? • How did you think and feel about it? • Future • What do you want? • Experiment with different futures • Present • Make decisions to move toward Future
  • 4. MAKING DECISIONS What is a good decision? • Depends on how decision was made • Use probability to make better decision
  • 5. HOW DOES OUR MIND WORK? SYSTEM 1 AUTOPILOT SYSTEM 2 INTENTIONAL
  • 6. HOW DOES OUR MIND WORK? SYSTEM 1 AUTOPILOT Subconscious Automatic Fast Intuitive Emotional SYSTEM 2 INTENTIONAL Conscious Mindful Slow Reasoning Logical
  • 7. HOW DOES OUR MIND WORK? SYSTEM 1 AUTOPILOT Automatic thoughts & feelings Subconscious beliefs & assumptions Habits SYSTEM 2 INTENTIONAL Choosing to pay attention Our sense of Self
  • 8. HOW DOES OUR MIND WORK? SYSTEM 1 AUTOPILOT Elephant SYSTEM 2 INTENTIONAL Elephant Rider
  • 9. HOW DOES OUR MIND WORK? SYSTEM 1 AUTOPILOT Uses little energy Runs all the time SYSTEM 2 INTENTIONAL Uses a lot of energy Runs in low-effort mode
  • 10. HOW DOES OUR MIND WORK? SYSTEM 2 IS ACTIVATED WHEN… System 1 runs into difficulty Learning new information Awareness of potential for error
  • 11. HOW DOES OUR MIND WORK? SYSTEM 1 AUTOPILOT Usually makes good decisions Errors are often predictable: • emotional issues • assessing probabilities SYSTEM 2 INTENTIONAL Can prevent System 1 errors Needs to be activated first Requires intentional focus
  • 12. PREDICTABLE ERRORS Wishful thinking. Planning Fallacy We intuitively assume that everything will go perfectly according to plan. We often don’t plan for extra time and resources to be prepared for possibility of unforeseen events.
  • 13. PREDICTABLE ERRORS Throwing good money after bad. Sunk Cost Fallacy If we invested a lot into getting something, we tend to be reluctant to give it up.
  • 14. PREDICTABLE ERRORS Eat, drink, and be merry, for tomorrow we may die. Hyperbolic Discounting We tend to prefer smaller payoffs now over larger payoffs later.
  • 15. STRATEGIES Focus on Your Long-Term Goals Reframe Your Perspective • Ask Why? Ask Why Not? • Outside perspective • Be self-aware
  • 16. STRATEGIES Future Scenario method • Think of what “might” happen in the future • How likely or unlikely are these possibilities? • Focus on undesirable outcomes • What might cause them? • How can you prepare?
  • 17. RESOURCES Center for Applied Rationality www.cfar.org Columbus Rationality Facebook group http://ow.ly/vfBdO Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality www.hpmor.com Less Wrong www.lesswrong.com