The document discusses Ukraine's trade performance with the EU, highlighting export dynamics from 2010 to 2016, the impact of internal and external factors, and areas of concern like corruption and ineffective tax systems. It outlines key reasons for recent declines in exports, including tariff and non-tariff barriers, and suggests solutions such as trade liberalization and reform measures. The information serves as a basis for assessing the expectations and results of the DCFTA and future trade prospects.

1. Viktor Halasiuk
Vice-Chair of the EU-Ukraine Parliamentary
Association Committee (UA Part),
Chair of the Verkhovna Rada Industrial Policy &
Entrepreneurship Committee
DCFTA:
Expectations, Results & Prospects
Parliament of Ukraine

2. Parliament of Ukraine
Trade with EU (Goods)
Source: Ukrainian National Statistic
bn $
$13,1
$18,0 $17,1 $16,8 $17,0
$13,0
$19,1
$25,8 $26,2 $27,0
$21,1
$15,3
-$6,1
-$7,8
-$9,1 -$10,3
-$4,1
-$2,3
37,7%
-4,9% -1,9% 2,6%
-23,4%
-2
-1,5
-1
-0,5
0
0,5
-$15
-$5
$5
$15
$25
$35
$45
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Export Dynamics
23.04.2014 - 31.12.2015
Autonomous Trade
Preferences
EX IM EX IM EX IM EX IM EX IM EX IM
BAL BAL
BAL BAL
BAL BAL

3. Trade with EU (Goods): 2016
Parliament of Ukraine
$3,3 $3,2
$3,8 $3,9
-$0,5
-$0,7 -$1
$0
$1
$2
$3
$4
$5
$6
3 mo. 2015 3 mo. 2016
EX EX IM IM
BAL BAL
-3,1%
Source: Ministry of Economic Development of Ukraine
Export Dynamics
bn $

4. Parliament of Ukraine
Dynamics of TOP UA Export Sectors to EU: 2015
+$0,02
-$0,03
-$0,15
-$0,22 -$0,26
-$0,71
-$1,29 -$1,35 -$1,4
-$1,2
-$1,0
-$0,8
-$0,6
-$0,4
-$0,2
$0,0
$0,2 Agro &
Food
Wood &
Paper
Other
Industrial
Goods
Machine
building
Chemicals
Light
industry
Source: Ministry of Economic Development of Ukraine
Minerals Metallurgy
bn $

5. Parliament of Ukraine
Source: Ukrainian National Statistic
Export Decline by Country (EU): 2015
-$0,18
-$0,20 -$0,20
-$0,22 -$0,22 -$0,23
-$0,26
-$0,49
-$0,60
-$0,67 -$0,7
-$0,6
-$0,5
-$0,4
-$0,3
-$0,2
-$0,1
$0,0
Austria Netherlands Slovakia UK Cyprus
Czech
Republic Germany Italy Hungary Poland
bn $

6. Parliament of Ukraine
Key Reasons
External Factors
Internal Factors
Tariff Barriers:
7 out of 36 quotas have been fully eilled in 3 months of 2016
(honey, grape & apple juices, corn, sugar, barley, oats, etc.)*
Non-Tariff Barriers:
no export started for 19 commodity groups subject to quotas
in 3 months of 2016 (eggs, sugar syrup, garlic, processed starch,
mushrooms, cigars, cigarettes, processed milk products, etc. )*
*- Source: Ministry of Economic Development of Ukraine
Corruption:
Ukraine is 130th out of 168 countries by
Corruption Perceptions Index 2015
Ineffective Tax System:
Ukraine is 121th out of 140 countries by Effect of taxation on
incentives to work (The Global Competitiveness Index 2015-2016)
Lack of Affordable Loans:
Average interest rate in national currency is 25%+ for long-term
collateralized loans;
Bank loans to GDP ratio decreased to 49% in 2015
Monopolized Electricity Access:
Ukraine ranks 137th out of 189 countries by
“Getting Electricity” index (Doing Business)

7. Parliament of Ukraine
Key Solutions
Negotiations on tariff and non-tariff
liberalization of trade
External Policy
Development of trade diplomacy
Improvement of trade information
mechanism
Liberalization of trade remedies
Coordination of cooperation on
technical assistance
Bold anticorruption measures
Internal Policy
Judicial & prosecution system reboot
Radical tax reform
Strengthening of competition policy
Investment & industrial policy as top
priority
Deeper Involvement of Business Community, Ukrainian and European Legislators, inter alia,
through Association Committee in Trade Coneiguration (ACTC)

8. Parliament of Ukraine
Thank You!