REVIEW
Davis Langdon Ireland Annual Review 2012
AECOM’s global capabilities:

Architecture
Building Engineering
Construction Services
Design + Planning
Economics
Energy
Environment
Government
Mining
Oil + Gas
Program, Cost, Consultancy
Program Management
Transportation
Water

With approximately 45,000
employees around the world,
AECOM serves clients in more
than 130 countries.
Contents
INTRODUCTION	 1                             BUSINESS INTELLIGENCE	                    20
		                                          Pat Gunne, Green Property
OVERVIEW	     2
                                            Bill Nowlan, W.K. Nowlan
Medium Term Outlook
                                            Maurice Mortell, Telecity
Construction Costs & Tender Prices
                                            Donal Murphy, Bank of Ireland
Where now for the Public Sector?
NAMA: Is the bottom line everything?        GEOGRAPHIES	                              26
                                            Island of Ireland
SECTOR DEVELOPMENTS	                   8	
                                            UK
Public
                                            Global Markets
Commercial
Retail                                      TECHNICAL DATA	                           38
Residential                                 Indicative Building Costs
Hotels, Sports & Culture                    Performance Bond Checklist
Infrastructure & Industry                   Project Planning Checklist
                                            Development Budget Driver
INDUSTRY DEVELOPMENTS	                 14
Alternative Funding Sources for the         DAVIS LANGDON NEWS	                       44
Property Industry                           Promotions
Work Outs by Asset Managers                 Public Sector Workshop
Repair & Maintenance                        Examples of Recently Completed Projects
Abnormally Low Tenders
                                            DAVIS LANGDON PEOPLE	                     46
Introduction


                                                                                      Paul Mitchell
                                                                                      Director
                                                                                      Head of Office – Ireland




We are delighted to welcome you            as getting its just comeuppance for the    Some of the ideas or concepts
to this year’s Annual Review of the        fallout of the boom. We currently have     mentioned above are tried and trusted
construction industry. We have included    an industry that has had 50% of its        mechanisms used in the delivery of
a wide range of commentary and             top ten contractors become insolvent       projects in other jurisdictions and
analysis on the Irish construction         since 2007, some remaining contractors     solve a real need in delivering critical
industry, looking at each of the sectors   choosing not to bid for certain public     infrastructure. We need a champion at
and recent industry developments,          work due to the cost of procurement        the highest levels within government
plus our colleagues give an update on      and risks associated with the public       who will work towards delivering a
what’s happening in the global markets.    works contract (even in this market!)      sustainable construction industry.
We have also included a business           and ongoing sub-contractor insolvency/
intelligence section which features a      liquidity issues. Consultancy practices    On the brighter side we have seen the
number of interviews with prominent        are experiencing similar difficulties.     positive effects of the Foreign Direct
industry figures who give us their         Some ideas that the Government could       Investment secured by the Industrial
thoughts on their sectors and areas of     consider include:                          Development Agency (IDA) Ireland,
expertise.                                                                            etc. Also, the recent announcement
                                           The easy wins:                             by National Asset Management
Whilst on a global level construction      -	 Introduce Procurement Passports         Agency (NAMA) to inject €2 billion into
output is stable, if somewhat stagnated    -	 Review handcuffs of Circular 10/10      construction over a four year period
in the short term, our domestic            -	 Procure projects with committed 	       to complete construction projects
market has continued its decline           	 funding                                  and address the shortfall in supply
albeit at a slower rate. Our estimate      -	 Alter award criteria to deter below 	   of appropriate space is extremely
of construction output for 2012 is         	 cost tenders                             welcome. This represents a 6% per
€7.75 billion, down 9% on last year                                                   annum (p.a.) increase in construction
compared to a reduction of 27% the         More difficult but achievable:             output if it is delivered. We have also
previous year. So, the good news is that   -	 Prioritise labour intensive projects    seen some of the large funds enter the
the contraction is slowing; the bad        -	 Deliver the capital programme           market with purchases such as One
news is that the market is operating       -	 Review the Capital Works 		             Warrington Place which is a real sign of
at a completely unsustainable level.       	 Management Framework (CWMF) by 	         confidence and stability.
In our overview section we show, even      	 including partnering type contract.
with an optimistic 15% year-on-year        -	 Bring the Real Estate Investments 	     We hope you enjoy the read and would
growth from 2014, it could take until      	 Trust (REIT) legislation into law        like to take this opportunity to thank
2020 to reach the optimum level of                                                    all our clients and colleagues for your
output required for a proper functioning   Leadership required;                       continued support during the year
industry.                                  -	 Stimulus Package, e.g. healthcare 	     and look forward to providing more
                                           	 focused                                  business solutions to you in the coming
In last year’s review we called for        -	 Encourage Pension Funds into 		         year.
leadership from the Government in          	 market, e.g. Student Accommodation,
terms of supporting the construction       	 Social housing                           Paul Mitchell
industry and acknowledging the             -	 Promote Qualifying Investor Funds 	
crucial role that the construction         	 (QIF’s) in funding property & 		
sector plays in the economy. We were       	 construction programmes, e.g. 		
not alone in our call but apart from       	 primary care centres
some behind-the-scene meetings and         -	 Consider Project Bonds to deliver 	
various gestures, there has been little    	 infrastructure, e.g. Broadband and 	     Director, Head of Office – Ireland
or no action. It would appear that the     	 Power                                    paul.mitchell@davislangdon.com
construction sector continues to be        -	 Engage with the Professional 		
viewed in the negative context of the      	 Bodies to generate workable 		
property industry and somehow seen         	 solutions


                                                                                                                 Introduction | 1
The Model Arts and Niland Gallery, Sligo.
(image courtesy of Paul Tierney Photography)




                                               Consultants




Overview
The aftershocks of the financial
crisis continue to dominate the
framing of the Exchequer budgets
and domestic demand generally.




The last 12 months have certainly           Medium Term Outlook                             levels which are unsustainable even in
been less “eventful” than the previous      Of course what happened yesterday is            the short term. We believe there is an
couple of years in terms of economic        of relatively little importance compared        urgent need to re-visit the strategy in
shocks and financial upheavals. The         to what happens tomorrow. In this               this regard and as we highlight in the
fact that we haven’t had any further        regard the publication of the public            following opinion piece the economy
significant banking debt added to           capital expenditure plans in the annual         needs an increase in investment in
the already seismic burden or had           budget is always keenly awaited.                social and productive infrastructure to
the need to introduce mini-budgets          As has been the trend for the last              provide both increased attractiveness
mid-year could be seen as a sense of        number of years, the December 2011              to business and to act as a stimulus to
stability returning to the economy — if     Budget included a multi-annual Public           general economic growth levels which
you take the glass half full approach       Capital Programme (PCP) extending out           are struggling to stay out of recession
to economics. Certainly we feel that        to 2016 (see Table 1).                          territory.
it is imperative that everyone takes
the glass half full approach, however,      Unfortunately, the past experience of           The construction industry has been
always remaining mindful of the             such multi-annual capital programmes            existing on a virtual treadmill for
baseline we are measuring against.          has been their propensity to vary               the last four years with the result
That baseline has been tracking very        radically as opposed to their reliability       that whilst we have not progressed,
low since the sheer drop experienced        in terms of not changing. Of course this        everyone still standing is leaner and
in 2008 and the aftershocks of the          very characteristic of change could be          fitter. The reality is that the race is
financial crisis continue to dominate       used as precedent to instigate positive         probably only half run, and with the
the framing of the Exchequer budgets        change to the “programme” laid out for          passing of the fiscal compact in the
and domestic demand generally.              the next three years. The PCP for 2013          medium term the requirements of the
                                            represents a further 14% reduction (in          troika programme and/or the markets
In addition, as a small open economy,       value terms) on that approved for 2012          will demand that public spending will
we are significantly impacted by            and this would further reduce output            continue to be sharply restrained. We
activity levels in foreign markets and in   in the construction industry below              will be reliant on a boost in Foreign
particular Europe. The last 12 months
have been plagued by the never
ending string of crisis summits at the       Public Capital Programme - Direct Exchequer Capital Funding €M
European level which have further
unsettled confidence, notwithstanding       	                                 2012	     2013	    2014	    2015	    2016	     2012 - 2016
the weakening of the Euro having            Transport, Tourism & Sport	      1,231 	    900 	    879 	    818 	     818 	         4,646
some positive impacts in terms of           (mostly road maintenance)	
making our exports more competitive
in global markets.                          Environment, Community 	          861 	     726 	    575 	    574 	     574 	         3,310
                                            & Local Government	

                                            Jobs, Enterprise & Innovation	    514 	     458 	    457 	    454 	     451 	         2,334

                                            Education & Skills	               430 	     415 	    475 	    475 	     415 	         2,210

                                            Health	                           390 	     390 	    390 	    390 	     390 	         1,950

                                            Other	   509 	   484 	   477 	   542 	   605 	                                        2,617
                                            						
                                            TOTAL	 3,935 	 3,373 	 3,253 	 3,253 	 3,253 	                                       17,067


                                             TABLE 1 : MULTI-ANNUAL CAPITAL INVESTMENT FRAMEWORK 2012-2016


                                                                                                                           Overview | 3
Tomás Kelly
Regional Director
Medium Term Outlook




Direct Investment (FDI) and indigenous      Figure 1: Construction Output Scenario Tracker
export companies, which we appear to
                                            40,000                                                                                                                                                      Optimum
be seeing the beginnings of, to mitigate
                                            35,000                                                                                                                                                      Construction Output
the reductions elsewhere in the private                                                                                                                                                                 (Based on 12% of
sector. We expect output levels to          30,000                                                                                                                                                      GNP) €’000’s
bottom out in 2013 before showing low       25,000                                                                                                                                                      Construction
single digit growth in 2014 onwards.        20,000                                                                                                                                                      Output €’000’s

                                            15,000                                                                                                                                                      Construction
There is a real danger of a skills                                                                                                                                                                      Output
                                            10,000
shortage materializing across a number                                                                                                                                                                  (Scenario A 10%
of the key craftsmen and professional           5,000                                                                                                                                                   p.a. growth) €’000’s
groups.                                                                                                                                                                                                 Construction
                                                        2006
                                                               2007
                                                                      2008
                                                                             2009
                                                                                    2010
                                                                                           2011
                                                                                                  2012
                                                                                                         2013
                                                                                                                2014
                                                                                                                       2015
                                                                                                                              2016
                                                                                                                                     2017
                                                                                                                                            2018
                                                                                                                                                   2019
                                                                                                                                                          2020
                                                                                                                                                                 2021
                                                                                                                                                                        2022
                                                                                                                                                                               2023
                                                                                                                                                                                      2024
                                                                                                                                                                                                        Output
                                                                                                                                                                                                        (Scenario B 15%
“To illustrate the long path to recovery                                                                                                                                                                p.a. growth) €’000’s
facing the construction industry,
Figure 1 shows the sustainable level
of output for the industry (based on
                                           TABLE 2 : Construction Output Projections (e) Estimated (f) Forecast
The Society of Chartered Surveyors
Ireland (SCSI) Report stating 12% of
Gross National Product) based on 2%         Construction Output	                                                                                     €m	                                        €m	                      €m
GNP growth and for the purposes of
                                            	                                                                                                       2011	                                    2012(e)	               2013(f)
the example two scenarios of 10% per
annum and 15% per annum growth              CENTRAL BANK	                                                                                          8,822	                                     7,862	                 7,426
in construction output. We know from
                                            Tender Prices %		                                                                                                                                 -1.10	                     —
experience that the growth/decline
rates of construction output are            Volume Change %		                                                                                                                                 -9.90	                 -5.50
cyclical but even with these ambitious      SCSI	                                                                                                  8,684	                                     7,448	                 6,956
growth examples it would be 2020
or 2023 before the sustainable              Tender Prices %		                                                                                                                                    —	                      —	
level would be reached. In respect          Volume Change %		                                                                                                                                -14.50	                 -6.60
of our output projections in Table 2,       DAVIS LANGDON	                                                                                         8,500	                                     7,755	                 7,827
there are inevitably downside risks
however, hopefully the recent NAMA          Tender Prices %		                                                                                                                                  3.00	                  3.00
announcement of investment of €2            Volume Change %		 -11.40	 -2.00
billion over the next four years will go    				
some way to insulating against such
                                           industry and those of other                                                                             services and it didn’t seem to matter
risks. As a measure of the significance
                                           commentarys in the industry.                                                                            too much as people’s incomes were
of this NAMA announcement, if the €2
                                                                                                                                                   rising similarly.
billion is spread evenly over the four
                                           Construction Costs &
years the €500 million in 2013, would
                                           Tender Prices                                                                                           Needless to say the adjustment has
be equivalent to the proposed reduction
                                           Increased competitiveness was a much                                                                    been sharp and none more so than
in the Public Capital Programme.”
                                           sought after aspiration during the later                                                                in the construction industry, however
                                           part of the Celtic Tiger period and with                                                                in common with other sectors the
Table 2 outlines a summary of our
                                           some justification as everyone had                                                                      cost base has been less elastic than
projections for the construction
                                           got used to paying more for goods and                                                                   prices. Tender prices saw a cumulative



4 | Overview
National University of Ireland, Galway - New Engineering Building, Galway.
                              (image courtesy of Neil Warner Photography)
It is not only consultants and contractors that find
public projects tough going. Individuals within public
bodies have been faced with their own range of
challenges, including a moratorium on recruitment,
non-renewal of fixed term contract staff, early
retirements, re-deployments, being forced to accept
below cost tendering and decentralisation.


37.5% drop between 2007 and 2010           increase at modest levels of on average    level of €3.3 billion per annum. However
inclusive whereas official statistics      circa 3% p.a. in 2012 and similar          to consultants and contractors it is
would indicate that costs have been        modest increases in 2013, with the         seen as an extremely challenging
largely static (and in some instances      cautionary note that the industry may      environment to do business in.
increasing) in the same period. Of         experience a shortage of competition
course, labour costs have in reality       in certain sectors and in particular for   Some of the key reasons for this are:
dropped further through a combination      high value contracts.
of salary cuts and reduced overtime                                                   1.	 Cost of Procurement procedures 	
payments, etc. The announcement            Where now for the Public                   	 and Tendering
in June 2010 and implementation in         Sector?
                                                                                      2.	 Cost focus of tender process 		
February 2011 of the 7.5% reduction        Davis Langdon, an AECOM company’s
                                                                                      	 leading to “race to the bottom”
in Registered Employment Agreement         estimate of the construction industry
wage rates was indicated as a              in 2012 is €7.75 billion as compared       3.	 Risk transfers
temporary measure to be reviewed thus      to an output in 2011 of €8.5 billion.
we would expect murmurings of such         The recent SCSI Construction Industry      4.	 Cost incurred on cancelled projects
a review to emerge in the second half      report (prepared by DKM Economic           5.	 Resources & Skills deficit in public 	
of 2012 with arguments on both sides       Consultants) has identified that a         	 sector clients
(unions and employers) for upward and      sustainable level of construction
downward movements respectively.           output in a mature economy should be       It is not only consultants and
                                           circa 12% of GNP (or 10% of GDP).          contractors that find public projects
On the materials side, the continuing                                                 tough going. Individuals within public
increasing energy costs, growing           Based on GNP of €129 billion/GDP           bodies have been faced with their
demand in developing countries and         of €161 billion in 2011 a sustainable      own range of challenges, including
weakness in the Euro will keep upward      level of output would be in circa €        a moratorium on recruitment, non-
pressure on imports in particular.         16 billion. This is over double the        renewal of fixed term contract staff,
                                           current projected output. So the real      early retirements, re-deployments and
In summary, we would anticipate            question is, in a number of years when     decentralisation.
construction costs of circa +2% in 2012    (hopefully) stability and a sustainable
and +2.5% in 2013.                         output level returns to the market, what   Whilst the number of projects has
                                           sort of construction industry will we      diminished, the workload on each
In terms of tender prices, after the       have in Ireland?                           project has increased due to the
sharp decline referred to above, 2011                                                 challenges of the economic climate
saw some stability return to the           The current industry is characterised      and the new procedures and contracts
market and we recorded an average          by uncertainty, insolvency, below cost     introduced through the Capital Works
3% increase. We would see this return      tendering and conflict. This, combined     Management Framework. These
to tender price increases more a           with the massive reduction in output,      procedures have been introduced with
correction of prices having overshot any   has resulted in a collapse in morale in    little training and are subject to change.
possible reduction in costs, rather than   the industry and a wide-spread skills      The introduction of the Department
the restoration of profits in 2011.        drain, both from the industry and the      of Finance Circular 10/10, whilst well
                                           country.                                   intentioned, placed another regulatory
Whilst we continue to see tenders being                                               burden on project and procurement
submitted which could be considered        The Multi Annual Capital Investment        managers in the public sector.
“potentially abnormally low,” their        Framework (MACIF) (see Table 1
prevalence is reducing. We would           on page 3), shows a stable level of        The net effect of all these issues is
anticipate tender prices to continue to    spending over the next four years at a     that the area of the Irish construction



6 | Overview
National Gallery of Ireland, Shaw Room, Dublin.




industry that one would expect to           price, before embarking on funding
be the most stable is a very difficult      construction projects.
place to do business in. The fear is that
dynamic and innovative players in Irish     However, NAMA has played some role
construction industry will tire of the      in getting projects moving, whether
challenges of public sector projects        through supporting the borrowers in
and will turn their focus to emerging       completing housing schemes, providing
elements of the private sector such         staple finance to schemes being
as the Foreign Direct Investment (FDI)      purchased by investors or completion
market or growth markets overseas.          of schemes using receivers.
The potential knock-on effect of
this would be to leave public sector        The previous 12 months have probably
construction projects in a place            been the most productive in actual
characterised by confrontation, poor        delivery of the individual business
performance and the associated              plan objectives leading to a number of
challenges to successful delivery of        distressed asset disposals that require
good projects. We are already seeing        construction activity during their
examples of this on the ground.             workout phase, albeit not amounting to
                                            any appreciable turnover.
NAMA: Is the bottom line
everything?                                 NAMA have approved working and
They certainly have had a busy year.        development capital advances of
In last year’s annual review published      €1.1 billion of which €506 million
June 2011, the focus was on completing      relates to Ireland. This expenditure
the transfer of the loans. However,         is being advanced through its debtor
the intervening period has seen NAMA        companies, i.e. borrowers whose loans
make significant strides in the area of     have been deemed eligible and have
enforcement.                                been transferred to the group.

In July, NAMA published a list of 847       In 2012/13 the best prospect one can            1200
properties which were in receivership       hope for from NAMA in relation to what
                                                                                                                                                  1,169
                                                                                                                                          1,119




or administration, a number which           it can do for the construction industry         1000
                                                                                                                                 1,093
                                                                                                                        1,040




steadily rose throughout the year to        is the disposal of assets/sites that
                                                                                             800
                                                                                                                887




1,169 at the end of March 2012 (see         are in demand, e.g. incomplete office
                                                                                                       847




Figure 2).                                  blocks with ready to go end users/               600
                                            tenants, unfinished semi-detached,
                                                                                             400
NAMA have stated that it has                housing schemes that are in demand,
completed its loan evaluation of            etc. Obviously, the successful entry of          200
business plans covering 97% of the          these schemes to market is dependent
loans on its balance sheet as at the end    on the right purchase price as opposed             0
                                                                                                      Jul 11   Aug11   Nov11    Dec11    Feb 11 Mar12
of March 2012.                              to any other factor. However, given the
                                            demand for offices, for example, from
                                                                                                   Figure 2:
So what does all this mean for the          multi-nationals and the limited amount
                                                                                                   Properties in receivership/administration
construction industry? Obviously            of suitable stock in the appropriate
one of the stated objectives of NAMA        areas, it is likely that this year will be
is to dispose of assets, at the right       more fruitful than the last.

                                                                                                                                    Overview | 7
The National Gallery of Ireland, Milltown Wing, Dublin.




                                                          Expert




Sector
Developments
Across all sectors, the key trend
has been the reduction in the
contract values of projects in
recent years.




Last year we highlighted the seismic      Figure 3: Estimated Sector Breakdown of Construction Industry 2012
shift in the construction industry        (SCSI/Davis Langdon Estimates)
output over the five year period from
2006 to 2011. Namely the collapse                                                                                                                                      Industry (6%)
of the residential sector and the                                                                                                                                      Commercial (5%)
return of the public sector civil and                                                                                                                                  Other Private Non-National (2%)
general building programme to being
                                                                                                                                                                       Education (6%)
the primary source of output. Not
                                                                                                                                                                       Health (4%)
surprisingly then there has been a
                                                                                                                                                                       Energy (13%)
sharp focus on movements in that
programme which we will review in our                                                                                                                                  Roads (10%)
sector review.                                                                                                                                                         Water & Sanitary Services (8%)
                                                                                                                                                                       Transport (3%)
Last year we also signalled the                                                                                                                                        Telecommunication (2%)
emergence of encouraging signs in the                                                                                                                                  Other public Non-Residential (3%)
Irish export market as well as Foreign                                                                                                                                 Residential (38%)
Direct Investment (FDI) sectors, and
thankfully these early signs appear to    allocation. Figure 4 illustrates the
be bearing fruit.                         departmental allocations and the                                                                                      One of the difficulties being
                                          percentage adjustment in 2011.                                                                                        experienced in the first half of 2012
Across all the sectors, the key trend                                                                                                                           has been the slow progression of public
has been the reduction in the contract    (For further details of Budget 2012                                                                                   sector projects. There have been a
values of projects; reflecting both the   Public Capital Programme please                                                                                       number of reasons, however, the two
decrease in tender prices in the last     contact Tomás Kelly at tomas.kelly@                                                                                   most prevalent relate to the area of
number of years combined with the         davislangdon.com )                                                                                                    public procurement.
reduced scope of works being carried
out. Figure 2 illustrates the sector      Figure 4 : Public Capital Programme Budget Direct Exchequer Funding 2011 & 2012
breakdown of the industry output in        €m                                                                                                                                                       10%
2012.                                     1600
                                                                                                                                                                                                     0%

Public                                    1400
                                                                                                                                                                                                    -10%
The Government announced the broad        1200
parameters of their 2012 Public Capital   1000
                                                                                                                                                                                                    -20%

Programme when they published their
                                                                                                                                                                                                    -30%
Infrastructure and Capital Investment      800

2012-2016 document in November             600                                                                                                                                                      -40%
2011 and further detail and breakdown
                                           400                                                                                                                                                      -50%
was provided in the budget last
December.                                  200
                                                                                                                                                                                                    -60%
                                            0
                                                                                                                                                                                                    -70%
The Multi Annual Capital Investment
                                                                         Environment,




                                                                                                                                                                 Communications,
                                                 Transport Tourism
                                                        and Sport



                                                                         Community &
                                                                     Local Government

                                                                                        Jobs, Enterprise &
                                                                                                Innovation



                                                                                                             Education & Skills



                                                                                                                                  Health



                                                                                                                                           Agriculture , Food
                                                                                                                                                   & Marine



                                                                                                                                                                 Energy & Natural
                                                                                                                                                                       Resources


                                                                                                                                                                                    OPW



                                                                                                                                                                                            Other




Framework (MACIF) 2012 provision
showed a 16% drop on the 2011 figures                                                                                                                                                                Percentage change

which has meant every department                                                                                                                                                                     Output 2011

has seen a reduction in their capital                                                                                                                                                                Output 2012




                                                                                                                                                                                          Sector Developments | 9
Telecity Datacentre, Dublin.




 JFK Primary School, Limerick.




10 | Sector Developments
John O’Regan                  Anthony McDermott             Mark Smith
Director                      Regional Director             Associate
Public                        Commercial                    Retail




Firstly, there appeared to be a            the commercial office fit-out sector         From a retailers perspective, the
significant slowdown in the number of      was still reasonably active in 2011.         Government’s decision not to proceed
etender contract notices in 2011 and                                                    with legislation in relation to Upward
the second half in particular. Due to      Activity in the commercial office sector     Only Rent Reviews combined with the
the long sequence of events required       is looking steady for 2012. Take up          increase in the Value Added Tax (VAT)
from notice placement, procuring           is down for the 1st quarter of 2012          rate has created much angst and a
consultants, obtaining statutory           compared to the first quarter of 2011        viewpoint that it will be later rather
consents and advertising and tendering     but this is mainly due to prolonged          than sooner for the retail market as a
main contract works, any interruption      negotiations, the “one off” Montreveto       whole to improve.
to this cycle is likely to slow down the   take up (45,000 square feet) last year
capital programme.                         and some businesses looking to curtail       Murmurs of planning reform in relation
                                           expansion until the economic climate         to the current retail size cap to allow
The other factor has been the              improves.                                    companies considering large operating
increasing duration required in                                                         store’s such as Wal-Mart and Costco
the tender evaluation phase. This          Demand for office space in Dublin is         or even Tesco-Extra stores have been
has arisen for a number of reasons         actually up 70% for the first quarter of     aired in documents about Ireland’s
including:                                 2012. Tenant activity has seen the likes     Budgetary and Reform Plans sent to
                                           of Google, Central Bank, BNY Mellon,         German parliamentary committees.
-	 the prevalence of very low tenders      Capita, Goodbody Stockbrokers all
	 requiring greater analysis and 		        looking for office accommodation.            However, seeds of optimism can
	 clarification;                                                                        be seen and for certain retailers,
                                           There has also been some office take         expansion plans have and are being
-	 on lower value projects the
                                           up outside of the Dublin area such as        drawn presently. New entrants have
   shift towards Most Economically
                                           PayPal and Prometrics in Dundalk and         come into the market or are looking
   Advantageous Tenders (MEAT)
                                           Hewlett Packard in Galway.                   at entering the market, most notably
   as opposed to lowest price
                                                                                        Banana Republic have been reported
   (notwithstanding the benefits of
                                           There should be continued office fit-out     as targeting a larger store on the
   same)
                                           activity in the coming year largely due      top of Grafton Street. New franchise
-	 increased number of challenges          to FDI announcements.                        stores have opened such as Eason’s
   to the procurement process from                                                      opening new franchise stores in
   unsuccessful tenderers                  In terms of new build office                 Mullingar, Balbriggan, Kilkenny and
                                           developments there is little or no           Carlow and AIM, the franchise operator
From the construction industry             activity nor is there any foreseen for the   of Iceland, opening new store’s in
perspective, and the wider economy, it     next six months at least. One significant    Coolock, Clonmel, Ashbourne and
is essential that these obstacles are      new build development going ahead            Carlow, plus other retailers mainly in
minimised to ensure value for money is     to the design stage is the high-profile      the pharmaceutical, food and discount
achieved and most importantly that the     Central Bank offices in Dublin.              sectors pushing expansion and re-
economic impact of this investment                                                      location strategies.
in terms of jobs and stimulus is           Retail
maximised.                                 The Irish Retail Market is still very        For new entrants and existing retailers,
                                           challenging with a number of high-           the availability of favourable terms with
Commercial                                 profile closures in the first six months     regards to rent free periods, period of
Although 2011 was another tough year       of 2012.                                     lease and rent and/or in certain cases,
economically for the property market,                                                   the build cost for certain retailers who




                                                                                                       Sector Developments | 11
Andrew Thompson,              Eoin Dunphy
Associate, Residential,       Associate, Data Centres
Hotels, Sport & Culture




prefer to own their own properties are       Again, we would anticipate that most           The redevelopment of Pairc Ui Chaoimh
providing the impetus for potential          of the existing overhang of housing            is unfortunately the only real significant
market expansion.                            stock will be first in the shopping list       project on a national scale to progress.
                                             for local authorities, however, some           With limited public funding available
Residential                                  limited public residential developments        (€30 million announced recently for
It was another tough year for the            will proceed, most notably those in the        the “Sports Capital Programme”)
residential sector in 2011. In our 2011      regeneration areas such as the north           the likelihood of any real significant
Review, we projected house completion        and south side of Limerick city.               projects moving in either the private or
units for both the private and public                                                       public sector is slim. Some works will
sectors to be 10,000 units. Department                                                      also commence at the National Sports
of Environment, Community & Local            Hotels, Sports & Culture                       Campus at Abbotstown.
Government statistics show that              Continued pressure in these sectors
10,480 units were completed for both         seems to be the common theme in                Culture Sector
the Private and Public sectors. This is      recent years. Whilst there may be some         In general, the outlook for the culture
a drop of circa. 28% on the 2010 figure      small movements in the sports sector,          sector in 2012 is for little or no growth.
of 14,602 units. Projecting forward for      there will be even less in the culture         The recent budget shows reductions
2012 we would anticipate between             sector and the hotel sector not realising      in Government spending in this sector
5,000 and 7,500 units to be completed.       any increase in construction activity.         with forecasts of circa €44 million to
                                                                                            be given to the Department of Arts,
Private Sector                               Hotel Sector                                   Heritage & Gaeltacht, circa €100
Current growth is again being restricted     It is worth reminding ourselves that in        million going to the Office of Public
by weak consumer demand, unstable            2004 there were circa 48,000 bedrooms          Works (OPW) and circa €21 million
economic status and the uncertainty          but by 2008 there were circa 64,000 —          going to tourism. Of this combined total
regarding the availability of finance        a 34% increase in capacity to match a          of €165 million it remains to be seen
and also future capital values. With the     demand that rose by just 12-13%.               how much will be released into cultural
current supply overhang of available                                                        type construction projects.
units both completed and near                With the existing room supply
completed, it is unlikely to be much         outstripping demand, there is unlikely
movement here although in certain            to be any real movement in new
areas of the Capital, 3 and 4 bed semi-      development in this sector in 2012, and
detached houses are in demand.               we may in fact witness some partially
                                             completed works being demolished.
Public Sector                                One of the eagerly awaited hotels in
The net housing need figure at present       Dublin that is scheduled for completion
shows that 98,318 households were in         early next year is The Marker Hotel in
need of social housing support at 31st       the Dublin Docklands.
March 2011.
                                             Sports Sector
                                             2011 saw the completion of some
                                             interesting projects in this sector,
                                             including the iconic UCD Student
                                             Learning, Leisure and Sports Complex
                                             and the University of Limerick Pavilion
                                             and Outdoor Synthetic Pitches project
                                             with four full-size, fully floodlit pitches.



12 | Sector Developments
University College Dublin - Student Learning, Leisure & Sports Facility, Dublin.
  (image courtesy of Donal Murphy Photography)




Infrastructure & Industry                               data centre industry which has seen       Multinational global businesses are
The outlook for the civil sector is a                   phenomenal growth over the past five      reviewing strategies and looking for
case of contrasting fortunes — on                       years throughout Ireland and Europe.      growth opportunities from varying
the one hand roads and rail having                      The attractive climactic conditions for   geographies’ through foreign direct
delivered a national motorway                           optimizing free cooling low seismic       investments. The companies that
network and significant investment                      activity, and sufficient Electricity      embark on such initiatives face and
in the greater Dublin area with the                     Supply Board (ESB) supply has helped      have to deal with many complex and
LUAS respectively, would appear to                      to guarantee this region as one of the    local issues on an ongoing basis.
be destined for a number of years of                    main the areas of choice for long-term
significantly reduced expenditure. On                   data centre development.                  The pharmaceutical sector has shown
the other hand, with the advent of the                                                            strong investment in Ireland for
government policy on the introduction                   The challenge for data centre             2012, with companies such as Mylan,
of water charges and the establishment                  developers now is how to keep up with     Allergan, Amgen and Eli Lilly, to name
of Irish Water, significant investment                  the insatiable customer demand for        but a few, that are either currently
should be made. We are also likely to                   space and ensure that your business is    or planning to invest heavily in their
see strong investment in the energy                     ahead of the pack in securing those all   operations for 2012. AECOM has a
sector.                                                 important resources required to deliver   proven track record in this sector
                                                        on that demand, whether that be the       globally and is expanding its presence
In terms of industry, as flagged earlier,               expertise or the relevant technologies.   in this sector in Ireland as well as
2012 has seen a renewed stream                          With time as the driver, data centre      maintaining its service with current
of development from indigenous                          clients need teams that have the          Irish pharmaceutical companies.
manufacturers performing strongly in                    proven expertise and track records
the export markets and foreign direct                   in delivering programs in multiple
investment inflows. This of course is                   locations concurrently using tried and
extremely welcome and a sign that our                   tested low cost models which meet the
competitiveness has improved against                    highest standards.
that of some of our competitors.
One specific example would be the




                                                                                                                 Sector Developments | 13
Industry
Developments




                                                                                   Professional


University College Dublin - Student Learning, Leisure & Sports Facility, Dublin.
(image courtesy of Donal Murphy Photography)
One of the features of the industry from a
client and consultant perspective in the last
couple of years, and likely to continue in the
medium term, has been the level of activity
aside from actual construction works.



Every year sees the list of industry       Alternative funding sources for                not pay tax within the company and
issues dominating the agenda change        the Property Industry                          therefore avoids double taxation. It
and evolve as the participants, clients,   The primary sources of property                must pay out a high proportion (90%
consultants and contractors grapple        finance are well known and include:            in the UK) of its property income to
with the challenges of the day. In                                                        its shareholders. It works through
2011, we looked at subjects such           -	   Private equity,                           buying shares in a listed property
as The Capital Works Management            -	   Short-term and long-term finance 	        company that has elected for REIT
Framework (CWMF), NAMA, Insurance          	    from financial institutions,              status and operates in accordance
Valuations, etc.                           -	   State funding,                            with REIT regulations. These
                                           -	   Institutional investors, e.g. pension 	   regulations are intended to ensure
This year we summarise a cross             	    funds.                                    the company is primarily engaged in
section of some of the key industry                                                       property investment, rather than in
developments that have been the            We know that private equity is scarce,         development.
subject of much discussion and/or          debt finance is not available at the
market change this year.                   levels required, state funding is on the       The Government has stated that they
                                           decline and that institutional investors       will introduce the legislation and it
                                           are eager but cautious. Where once             is expected imminently. There are
                                           we could depend on a significant               currently over 20 REITs in the UK,
                                           development finance package with a             including household names from
                                           small amount of equity all wrapped             Hammerson to Land Securities with
                                           together in a suitably “geared” package,       a total market cap in excess of €25
                                           we now know that this is no longer an          billion. So, how would REITs help in an
                                           option.                                        Irish context? Firstly, Nama could avail
                                                                                          of it and transfer some of its €31 billion
                                           So, is it just a matter of adjusting the       loan book into a REIT for investors.
                                           ingredients and changing the recipe?           NAMA has recently stated that this
                                           Do we have the right ingredients, or           would be an attractive option for them,
                                           indeed, enough of them? Recent new             should the legislation be passed.
                                           (and improved) recipes being explored
                                           recently include:                              Secondly, the current international
                                                                                          investors who are seeking to purchase
                                           -	   Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT)       assets in the Irish market, could
                                           -	   Equity partnerships/Private Rental 	      avail of a transparent and regulated
                                           	    Sector (PRS)                              investment vehicle that would be
                                           -	   Project bonds                             professionally managed and generate
                                                                                          a return for their investment. This
                                           Real Estate Investment Trust                   would have the effect of restoring the
                                           (REIT)                                         international confidence somewhat
                                           A REIT is a company that manages a             and provide a tried and trusted conduit
                                           portfolio of real estate to earn profits       through which they would conduct
                                           for shareholders. The main benefit             their affairs, without having to be
                                           and attraction of a REIT is that it does       directly involved in the management




                                                                                                        Industry Developments | 15
Paul Mitchell                   Neil McBeth
Director, Head of Office        Associate, Due Diligence




of the individual assets. As mentioned           Pike Architects, incorporates the           countries have been looking at ways to
earlier, REITs are not permitted to lend         example whereby a promoter (private,        fund these projects without such credit
into development. However, one would             local authority, housing association)       wrapping.
expect that in the context of a strong           obtains land and develops a residential
covenant, a REIT providing the long-             scheme which is then “bought out”           In October of last year, the European
term finance that a bank or banking              by an investor (e.g. pension fund, etc).    Union adopted a legislative proposal
syndicate would be in a strong position          The residents then pay a capital rent       launching the pilot phase of the €50
to provide development finance.                  (cost of scheme plus annual return          billion Europe 2020 Project Bond
                                                 to investor), the capital rent being        Initiative. The initiative aims to revive
Maybe this Utopian example is not that           10-20% lower than the market rent.          and expand capital markets to finance
far off when you consider the pent-              Any payment above the capital rent is       large European infrastructure projects
up investor demand, the impending                treated as equity, or buying part of your   in the fields of transport, energy and
shortage of premium office space to              home, with full ownership being the         information technology. Although the
satisfy the incoming multi-nationals,            ultimate goal.                              “project bonds” proposal from the
the value in the marketplace and the                                                         European Commission is subject to the
requirement for the banks to restart             Project Bonds                               approval of European governments,
lending into properly geared deals.              A project bond is a fund set up to          they have indicated that funding would
                                                 finance a specific project or group         be available to upgrade the Dublin-
Equity Partnerships/Private                      of projects. They were typically used       Belfast rail link, as well as transport
Rental Sector (PRS)                              to fund large infrastructure projects       connections in the ports of Dublin and
The basic model for development in               and were very common in the United          Cork.
the residential sector, for the most             States and South America. Instead
part, is Develop and Dispose, i.e.               of using traditional bank lending, the      As this is only the pilot phase it is likely
the developer purchases the site,                project company could raise the senior      to take some time before we see a
constructs the residential stock and             debt through project bond issues.           direct impact on project funding in the
then sells it to homeowners/private              Capital market investors would buy the      local market.
investors. One of the scenarios where            bonds if an investment grade credit
an equity partnership comes into play            rating, preferably at least A-, could be    So, in relation to alternative sources of
is when the ultimate purchaser is not            achieved.                                   funding it does not appear as though
in a position to secure the finance                                                          we are on the cusp of a breakthrough
to purchase their own property, e.g.             Owing to the inherent risk in directly      in the near future. Looking at the few
potential purchaser can’t obtain a               funding construction projects, they         transactions that have taken place
mortgage. There are various forms of             were insured by “monoline” insurers in      over the past year, it would appear
Equity partnerships, particularly in the         a process known as “credit wrapping.”       to be more a case of using the best
US, whereby the ultimate residents own           However, these insurers faltered during     ingredients available and sticking to
their homes or shares in the overall             the downturn due to guaranteeing            grandma’s old tried and trusted recipe
development.                                     billions of dollars worth of sub-prime      than any type of haute-cuisine.
                                                 debt, and projects have stalled as
A proposal being led in the Irish                a result. In response to this and
context by James Pike, of O’Mahony               burgeoning investor coffers, different




16 | Industry Developments
The National Gallery of Ireland, Dublin.




                                           Industry Developments | 17
National University of Ireland, Galway - New Engineering Building, Galway.
 (image courtesy of Neil Warner Photography)




At the very least, a detailed                          Work Outs by Asset Managers                     modeling of all the inputs under
                                                       The financial crisis in Ireland has left us     the various development/work-out
analysis of a potentially                                                                              permutations, including critiquing
                                                       with a significant number of distressed
abnormally low tender will                             and incomplete construction projects            the disposal strategy options.
assist in developing an                                and a long list of developer and
effective risk mitigation                              contractor insolvency casualties.             -	 Unraveling of historical deals and 	
                                                                                                     	 agreements
programme.                                                                                              Inevitably, when one goes to open
                                                       The lack of action on unfinished
                                                       developments has led to additional               up the file on a development that
                                                       risks for stakeholders that range from           has stopped prematurely, there
                                                       additional costs due to simple neglect           will be a myriad of agreements and
                                                       and lack of upkeep, to health, safety            deals. Needless to say it is only
                                                       and environmental issues. In many                those with liabilities attached that
                                                       cases, the inaction and lack of funding          are being brought to your attention,
                                                       has only served to reduce the value of           so a methodical approach and
                                                       the asset for the long term. The work            commercial awareness are key to
                                                       out path is not for the faint hearted and        resolving these.
                                                       requires intense effort and tenacity
                                                       from the outset, to ensure a successful       -	 Obtaining certification for disposal
                                                       outcome. There are many challenges               This problem is encountered on
                                                       for stakeholders, which become                   most projects and is usually solved
                                                       apparent from the outset, and these              through negotiation with the
                                                       require experienced professionals to             certifiers or, if not possible, using a
                                                       assist in identifying and navigating             new team, exhaustive surveys and
                                                       a pathway to delivering the project.             certificates with certain caveats.
                                                       Amongst the key challenges are:
                                                                                                     Activity to date has been predominantly
                                                       -	 Self funding mechanisms                    driven by non-nama institutions that
                                                          The availability of finance, or lack       are intent on exiting the Irish market.
                                                          of, has been much publicised so it is      The recent announcement by NAMA
                                                          not surprising that this is probably       is welcome news and should see a
                                                          the biggest challenge for funders in       sizeable increase in activity in this area.
                                                          moving a work-out strategy forward.
                                                          After that it is then important, where     Repair & Maintenance
                                                          possible, that the development             With the sharp decline in the level of
                                                          is phased in such a manner that            new build construction, an increasing
                                                          will generate revenue to fund the          amount of the industry focus has
                                                          remaining phases.                          turned to the Repairs, Maintenance
                                                                                                     and Improvement (RMI) sector. The RMI
                                                       -	 Getting the disposal strategy right        sector has of course also seen a decline
                                                          Interlinked with the funding               in output, but not to the same extent,
                                                          mechanism is the issue of developing       therefore, as a proportion of the overall
                                                          a sustainable business model. This         total it has increased significantly (SCSI
                                                          will require careful consideration of      Construction Industry report estimates
                                                          the key drivers and then testing           it at 41% in 2012 compared to 19%
                                                          these through thorough financial           in 2006 per the DKM Construction


18 | Industry Developments
Stuart Griffin               John O’Regan
Associate, Project           Director
Management




Industry Review and Outlook 2010            actively managing their real estate and    European Union (EU) procurement
Report).                                    we are working with others to develop      guidelines and directives. These
                                            asset registers, including schedules of    must be scrupulously followed by the
Of course, the need for repairs and         condition and planned and preventative     client or there is a risk of a successful
maintenance is ever present. Real           maintenance schedules.                     challenge to the process which would
estate that is not maintained will start                                               result in the outcome of the process
to diminish over time in functionality      The improvements segment of RMI has        being overturned or damages becoming
and become unfit for purpose. As            also been experiencing greater activity    due to the injured party.
soon as the client takes possession         than new build, as organisations have
of the building the wear and tear of        been downsizing or re-organising to        There is detailed guidance available on
the building and its fabric starts. Once    sub-let space. In some cases where in      the steps to be taken in assessing ALT’s
one system or element fails, there is       a different climate clients may have       and these involve seeking clarifications
generally a consequential knock-on          chosen the new build option, they are      and additional information from the
effect on other elements and systems.       now making the decision to refurbish       tenderer in question. By demanding
For example, if a hole appears in a roof    their existing space.                      this level of information and employing
covering, there will inevitably be water                                               expert analysis from the quantity
damage on the internal fabric of the        Abnormally Low Tenders (ALT’s)             surveyor and design team, the client
building and services. Should the plant     Have you ever received (or submitted)      can obtain a very clear picture of how
and equipment and services start to         an abnormally low tender for               the bid was prepared and how robust
fail due to water ingress, the knock-on     consultancy services or construction       the price is.
effect of down time from staff and          works?
users not being able to use the building                                               Davis Langdon’s experience of public
will be significant.                        Have you ever rejected a tender            sector tendering is that it is rare for a
                                            because it was abnormally low?             tender to be rejected as abnormally low
Frequent and regular repair and             I think the answer to the first question   but that it is critical that the detailed
maintenance is the most cost effective      above would be a resounding yes            assessment is carried out. Often the
way for providing and retaining a good      from just about everybody involved         investigation results in the bidder
functional building. The inspection of      in tendering in the Irish construction     realising the challenges that their
existing buildings is key to effective      market.                                    tender presents and withdrawing their
asset maintenance and management.                                                      tender. In other cases, the investigation
Identifying and analysing the problems,     The answer to the second question          uncovers issues that can be resolved
assessing the risks, and establishing a     is harder and the answer may well          prior to contract and hence avoiding
strategic way forward for maintaining       depend on whether you are operating in     potential claims. At the very least,
and repairing the building is key. Most     the private or the public sector.          a detailed analysis of a potentially
repair and maintenance of buildings         It is not uncommon for the lowest bid      abnormally low tender will assist in
is reactive, where designers and sub        to be passed over in the commercial        developing an effective risk mitigation
contractors work to address issues          world. Are these decisions always          programme. Typical mitigation
as they arise, and clients spend little     fair — maybe not — but in the private      measures include increased provision
time assessing, scheduling, planning        sector, as long as the tender documents    of onsite cost, programme, quality
and budgeting to prevent such issues        are structured right, it is the clients    and safety monitoring, increased
arising. Resources allocated to             call. The disappointed contractor or       contingency provision, increased
evaluating and putting plans in place to    consultant has no come back.               focus on project administration and
repair and maintain real estate             How about the public sector?               structured project management
anticipating and planning to address        The position here is much more             processes involving principals of all the
issues before they become problems,         complicated. There are defined             bodies involved.
is money well spent. Some clients are       processes both in national and

                                                                                                     Industry Developments | 19
Leaders




Business
Intelligence
7 & 8 St James’ Square, London.
We believe it is important to listen
to and understand the issues from
the key leaders in the industry




Davis Langdon, an AECOM company,             Pat Gunne,
has extensive knowledge and                  Managing Director, Green Property
experience across the full spectrum
of service lines and sectors in the          	 Commercial:
industry. However, notwithstanding           Q	 Stamp duty reduction; Upward
this track record, we firmly believe it is      Only Rent Review (UORR) clarity, etc.
key to any appointment, big or small,           Positive changes but what is the
to first listen to and understand our           effect?
client’s requirements.                       A	 The changes you mention
                                                are significant to the extent that
In the same way, when we are writing            investment in real estate had
our annual review, we believe it is             become a binary issue. Once
important to listen to and understand           the UORR came on the table for
the issues concerning key leaders               discussion, and it was surrounded by
in the industry and in the current              uncertainty, the market shut down so
climate people who are at the coalface          it has been significant to the extent
in terms of delivering or facilitating          that Ireland is investable again,
growth in key sectors in the coming                                                       	 Finance:
                                                however, in terms of activity, the
years.                                                                                    Q	 Debt financing, is there any out 		
                                                market hasn’t started trading in any
                                                                                          	 there?
                                                meaningful way.
We thought you would like to listen                                                       A	 The Irish banking system is entirely
too!                                                                                         dominated by NAMA. Bank of Ireland
                                               To re-ignite the market, you need
                                                                                             (BOI) and Allied Irish Bank (AIB)
                                               external capital investment because
So we have summarised in question                                                            have both said they want to lend
                                               the domestic equity has been
and answer format, interviews we                                                             to the sector, however, both banks
                                               effectively wiped out due to the
conducted with a number of thought                                                           are trying to reduce their overall
                                               extent of the collapse in the market.
leaders on what they see as the                                                              exposure to commercial property. Net
challenges, solutions, and more                                                              lending to real estate in the United
                                             Q	 Poor credit ratings, second rate 		
importantly, the likely trends in their                                                      Kingdom (UK) is negative, in Ireland
                                             	 investments — is it a case of no 	
sectors in the short to medium term.                                                         it is that multiplied by 10 and we
                                             	 thanks from investors?
                                                                                             will be in that net negative lending
                                             A	 Yes and no. The funds will want
                                                                                             environment for the next three to five
                                                to buy shiny buildings, with shiny
                                                                                             years.
                                                tenants, in grade A locations. There is
                                                only a certain amount of that and it
                                                                                          Q	 Government — if you could ask for 	
                                                represents a tiny part of the market.
                                                                                          	 one wish?
                                                                                          A	 The government can only control the
                                               On the other hand, the reason
                                                                                             Irish part of the solution; they cannot
                                               Ireland is seen as attractive for US
                                                                                             control what happens with foreign
                                               private equity is that it is seen as “in
                                                                                             owned banks, all of which are in
                                               distress.” Up to now the pricing gap
                                                                                             retreat.
                                               has been too wide, but given that we
                                               are now in year five of the meltdown,
                                                                                            The biggest thing they could do
                                               I suspect the level of market activity
                                                                                            would be to restructure their deal
                                               will slowly begin to improve.
                                                                                            with the troika on their own capital



                                                                                                         Business Intelligence | 21
JFK Primary School, Limerick.




“ The Government can only           structure and accept that a good           accepting that they are a long-term
                                    chunk of NAMA is a long-term               mortgage bank.
  control the Irish part of the     mortgage bank as opposed to a
  solution; they cannot control     grind down agency as it is a constant      They also could start selling Irish real
  what happens with foreign         overhang on the market.                    estate in lot sizes and packaged in a
  owned banks, all of which are                                                format which meets the investment
                                  Q	 Once the debt and liquidity return, 	     appetite of the major international
  in retreat.”                    	 we will have a sharp upturn in 		          funds. They might not like the price,
                                  	 property in terms of prices. True or 	     however, we either accept that the
                                  	 False?                                     capital is external private equity or
                                  A	 To try doing the crystal ball             not. The overriding objective of NAMA
                                     gazing when there is so much macro        must be to re-create a market and
                                     uncertainty is of limited value. At       to do so they need to sell. Ultimately
                                     the moment we are taking the view         the market determines the pricing
                                     that the macro is a pronlonged            and not the November 2009 entry
                                     workout at the European and indeed        point which Nama had no control
                                     global level, but particularly around     over when it was being cast in stone.
                                     the euro area. Having said that, if       They’re trying their best, but it’s a
                                     you buy central Dublin real estate        very challenging environment.
                                     at below reinstatement cost, with
                                     income to get you through however       Q	 Any lessons to be learned from our 	
                                     many years, and with arbitrage on a     	 nearest neighbours?
                                     debt package, then that probably is a   A	 Lloyds for me have been very
                                     good risk adjusted investment. Who         refreshing in their approach,
                                     knows whether we are right or wrong,       obviously they have taken a lot
                                     that is the view we are taking, and        of pain but they are dealing with
                                     the majority of our investment focus       the resolution in a very pragmatic
                                     remains in the UK.                         way. Typically they are avoiding,
                                                                                where possible, in dealing with it
                                  	 Distressed Property:                        through the courts, and instead are
                                  Q	 What would you change/enhance              sitting down and having sensible
                                     about the way Nama operates                discussions with borrowers in an
                                     today?                                     attempt to resolve their problems
                                  A	 The changes at the top have been           through a consensual process.
                                     very positive and they have done well
                                     in the UK, their challenge is around
                                     the Irish market. They are trying to
                                     be part of the solution in terms of
                                     the lack of liquidity by saying that
                                     they are willing to put in debt on
                                     deals where they are selling which
                                     is crucial and one step away from




 22 | Business Intelligence
“ This is the fourth recession that I have
  experienced in business. So I would
  say nothing will change, it will just be
  different the next time. Lessons do not get
  remembered for longer than ten years.”



 Bill Nowlan,                                                                          Funding
 Managing Director, W.K. Nowlan &                                                      Q	 When do you foresee the funding 	
 Associates                                                                            	 impasse resolving itself and what 	
                                                                                       	 its likely effect will be on property 	
 Q	 What would you see as the key 		                                                   	 values?
 	 lessons from the financial crisis 	                                                 A	 I believe that the money will be found
 	 that should be learned by the 		                                                       because we just cannot, at a political
 	 property industry?                                                                     level, continue to keep grinding
 A	 Property booms and busts are facts                                                    people down. But I do think that you
    of life, you can go back generations,                                                 have to have the controls in place,
    go back millennia — Cicero put his                                                    so I would think that after this treaty
    pension fund into property.                                                           is in place. Once funding returns, I
                                                                                          believe that house prices in Dublin
   This is the fourth recession that I                                                    will spike very rapidly. If you ask me
   have experienced in business. So                                                       where I would actually speculate
   I would say nothing will change, it                                                    my money, now is to buy land in Dun
   will just be different the next time.                                                  Laoghaire or on the Luas line, I think
   Lessons do not get remembered for                                                      that will go like a train.
   longer than 10 years.
                                                                                       NAMA
 Q	 In terms of the residential property                                               Q	 Have you a sense of what the 	
 	 market, what do you see as the fate 	                                                  NAMA strategy is towards managing
 	 for the sea of Ghost Estates?                                                          their Irish portfolio?
 A	 You have to slice and dice this, first                                             A	 I think what you are beginning to see
    of all there are ghost estates that                                                   happening is that they are dribbling
    are:                                                                                  property out through the receivers to
    -	 well built houses but for which 	                                                  see what will happen.
    	    there is no demand because of 	     Q	 Is the mini boom in Foreign Direct 	
    	    their location and then there 	     	 Investment (FDI) a saviour for our 	      You can’t push a piece of string and
    	    is,                                 	 ailing property industry?                 I think NAMA have a problem in that
    -	 poor quality accommodation 	          A	 Saviour is probably not the right        they have this huge need to actually
    	    in inappropriate locations.            word; it is probably going to be         get property out there but it has to
                                                an important factor. One of the          come on the demand side. At the
   In the first case, the price will fall       things we need to do is put in the       moment, they are concentrating their
   to a point at which they will be             infrastructure to encourage FDI — I      efforts in the UK and overseas and
   bought, whereas in the second case           think this is where our planning         the big question is should they just
   demolition will be the only option in a      comes in.                                drop prices down?
   lot of instances.
                                             	
   So, in short, you have to look at each
   situation and decide whether this is
   for holiday homes, the JCB or time.




                                                                                                      Business Intelligence   | 23
For example, if you were to set up the
equivalent of an IFSC for the IT industry,
you are creating an environment making
it easy and competitive to come in and set
up business.



Maurice Mortell,                               Q	 What measures should the 		
Managing Director Ireland, Telecity            	 government implement/maintain 	
Group                                          	 to assist with this growth?
                                               A	 It is not a labour intensive market;
Q	 Do you envisage data centre                    if you are going to really look to
   activity continue at the current pace          sustain the industry you need to
   of growth for the foreseeable future?          look at the types of clients that are
A	 The industry has been through 	                attracted to the facilities and how
   a number of cycles; my view would              you best cater for their requirements.
   be we are on the cusp of a new wave            So, for example, if you were to set
   of development, coming into Dublin             up the equivalent of an IFSC for
   specifically. If you have a league table       the IT industry, you are creating an
   for locations in Europe you would              environment making it easy and
   have:                                          competitive to come in and set up
                                                  business.
  -	   Amsterdam
  -	   Paris                                   Q	 With the sale of state assets on 		
  -	   London                                  	 the table, have you particular fears 	
  -	   Frankfort                               	 for your sector?
  -	   Dublin                                  A	 The big issue would be the
                                                  distribution grid, I would be very
  Unfortunately, nationally the                   reticent to think that they would
  infrastructure isn’t as good on the             privatise that — we need to hold on
  diversity of Telecoms side. The key             to it and keep control of it. One of the
  selection criteria would be:                    very big positives is the robustness
                                                  of the grid. It is a big factor, we are    Q	 We have endured European
  -	   Power                                      not that competitive in the price of          pressure to broaden and expand
  -	   Telecoms infrastructure                    energy supply.                                our tax base; how critical is it to
  	    (trans-atlantic international 		                                                         the data centre sector that it is
  	    connectivity tier 1 routing)            Q	 In terms of capital investment, 		            maintained?
  -	   Mature supplier market                  	 would you consider Ireland a good 	         A	 From our perspective it is
  -	   Project management companies            	 value for money location?                      absolutely critical — 65%-
  -	   Distribution grid/resilient             A	 From what I have seen we tend                 70% would be overseas clients
  -	   Number of players in the market            to use the same people in the                 (predominantly US) who would not
  -	   Energy efficiency 50% of 		                same locations to get the benefit             have a set up and are just availing
  	    the year temperature below 6 		            of it — that doesn’t always work              of the taxation regime for their
  	    degrees                                    to your advantage — but Ireland               transaction based business, but
  -	   Self fulfilling prophesy — critical 	      is competitive enough, across the             politically it would appear to be
  	    mass                                       group the cost/square foot it is in           a no-go area so I would not see it
                                                  and around the mark.                          happening.




24 | Business Intelligence
Donal Murphy,                                months to get through the initial           to procure via PPP and stick to them
Director of Project Finance,                 stages and the fact that there are          rather than spreading resources too
Bank of Ireland                              none (bar Schools Bundle 4) at that         thinly over a whole range of projects.”
                                             early stage, there may well be a            In other words, use PPP’s for specific
Q	 Have the Budget 2012 Public-              quiet period in terms of contracts          sectors in specific circumstances
   Private Partnership (PPP)                 being signed during 2013/2014.              and then look to the market to
   postponement announcements                However, recent positive engagement         deliver on these. By keeping the
   damaged the reputation of Ireland         between ministers and the European          projects simple, straight forward
   as a market for investors/project         Investment Bank (EIB), and a sense          with a reasonable risk allocation
   sponsors?                                 of positivity around their role and the     and consistent with previous
A	 On the positive side, the two roads       use of privately financed projects          transactions, the chances of
   schemes, the N7/N11 & the N17/            to provide economic stimulus, may           maintaining project sponsor interest
   N18, and the schools PPP bundle           result in a renewed impetus for the         is greatly increased.
   schemes (bundle three contract            use of the PPP model.
   signing due second half of 2012 and                                                 Q	 There have been some PPP projects
   bundle four likely in 2013/14) are        In terms of funding, at the peak of          which have failed for one reason or
   receiving continued support.              the Irish market bank groups were            another; are there any lessons that
                                             generally dominated by international         could be learned from these?
  The two areas negatively affected          banks with the Irish banks playing        A	 Projects such as the co-located 	
  by the recent announcements                their role; in recent years obviously        hospitals and social housing were
  were the third level bundles and           things have changed in so far as             hybrid PPP models, taking a range of
  major flagship public transport            Bank of Ireland is effectively the only      market related risks without some
  projects. The third level programme        Irish bank operating in the space            of the traditional attributes of a
  was probably the real surprise. It         and the international banks (who             previously banked projects.
  was disappointing from a market            were typically not based in Ireland)
  perspective as this programme was          have withdrawn from the Irish               If there is a lesson to be learned
  at a well advanced stage in terms          market. The role of the EIB will be         (for the PPP market generally) from
  of procurement. There is no doubt          absolutely critical because they can        these projects it is that there needs
  that the cancellation of an entire         significantly close the funding gap         to be early and regular consultation
  programme has the potential to be          on some of these projects (up to 50%        between the procuring authorities
  damaging to sponsor interest for           funding) but to be blunt for a long-        and the funding market. Dialogue
  future projects.                           term sustainable market there needs         and market soundings prior to
                                             to be more than one domestic bank           proceeding with a procurement
Q	 What do you see as the outlook for 	      and more international banks active         process present the best opportunity
	 PPP projects in Ireland in the short 	     in the market.                              of structuring a project with the
	 to medium term?                                                                        best possible chance of attracting
A	 The overriding constraint will be the   Q	 If you had to give one piece of            interest and succeeding. Once you
   capital spend and what will be             advice to the government in respect        embark on a procurement process
   allowed under the programme with           of maintaining a sustainable PPP           it can be difficult to subsequently
   the troika. Assuming the current           market in Ireland, what would it be?       make any meangingful changes to a
   programme can be delivered,             A	 The key message would be to “pick          project structure.
   given that projects can take 12-24         the specific programmes you wish




                                                                                                     Business Intelligence   | 25
The Shard, London.
(image courtesy of Sellar Property Group)




                                            Team




Geographies
Notwithstanding these challenges, the
regions are seeing pockets of revival in
different sectors and we identify a number
below which have been particularly active.




If we were ever in any doubt that we           Island of Ireland                           are a reduced number of experienced
operated in a global market we only                                                        contractors, difficulty in getting
have to look back over the last few            In larger countries, significant regional   specialist sub-contractors, continued
years at a catalogue of international          variations in output can and do prevail     presence of abnormally low tenders
events which have impacted on world            from time to time, depending on             and delays in obtaining performance
markets and in turn filtered their way         differing economic cycles and regional      bonds to name a few.
through to effecting most economies.           needs that exist. In Ireland however,
In particular, open economies such as          regional variations in output tend to be    Notwithstanding these challenges, the
our own which are highly dependent             more subtle.                                regions are seeing pockets of revival
on international trade. Unfortunately                                                      in different sectors and we identify
for Ireland we had our own domestic            This is largely due to what some might      a number below which have been
financial and banking collapse which           consider a good open democracy or           particularly active.
decimated any defences we may have             others might call parish pump politics.
had to such international events.              So, typically output has tended to          Education
                                               correlate with the demographic              In response to increased demand there
With this in mind, it is important to          distribution, and by implication votes.     has been a sustained primary and
look at the recent industry trends             There is a practical purpose to this        secondary school building programme.
domestically and internationally where         also of course in that public services      It has also been signalled that in
Irish contractors and consultancy              will be needed to match the demand          the near future the department will
practices are seeing increasing                of the demographic distribution, so         be devolving delivery of parts of the
business for their services.                   for these reasons when we are looking       programme to other agencies such as
.                                              at potential trends into the medium         the Vocational Educational Committees
                                               term it is always useful to study           (VEC’s) and possibly the National
                                               demographic movements.                      Development Finance Agency (NDFA). In
Percentage population change 2006-2011
(Census 2011 Eds, Central Statistics Office)                                               addition, new design team procedures
                                               April 2011 saw the national census          to reflect this devolved approach will
                                               carried out and we have recently            also be implemented.
                                               seen the first detailed set of results
                                               from it published. The map on the           In contrast the government’s capital
                                               left illustrates the population change      programme has sharply cut back
                                               movements since census 2006 and             on capital spending at third level
                                               reflects the increasing urbanisation        institutions. Notwithstanding these
                                               of the population and the gradual           departmental cuts the universities have
                                               depopulation of the more remote rural       been very proactive in identifying other
                                               locations.                                  sources of income and the merger/
                                                                                           clustering of institutes of technology
                                               In the short term, all the regions are      to form technological universities will
                                               experiencing negative trends in terms       necessitate investment.
                                               of demand, such as a reduction in
                                               public spending and a lack of finance       Private Healthcare
                                               and business confidence for private         The economic crisis has seen
                                               clients to invest. On the supply side,      significant numbers not renewing their
                                               the issues prevalent in the market          private health insurance. However,




                                                                                                                  Geographies | 27
Geographies




there still remains a sizeable proportion     On a positive note, a new landmark                 significantly and provides high
of the population which continue to           building, a central headquarters office            performance training facilities for elite
pay for same. Thus whilst the downturn        for the Munster GAA, is well underway              athletes.
has severely impacted potential new           with completion due in the summer of
entrants to the market, existing players      2012.                                              In the private sector the Industrial/
such as the Bon Secours and Galway                                                               pharma/food/technology sectors have
Clinic continue to invest.                    Education and healthcare projects                  been the stand out performers with
                                              seem to be the only real public sector             significant investments being made in
Industrial                                    projects of note that are getting                  the likes of Boston Scientific, Ely Lily
As noted earlier in the review there          underway in the region. Probably the               and Pepsi. Also, Leibherr have made a
has been a significant increase               most significant public building to be             significant investment to their facility in
(predominantly FDI driven) in                 constructed at present in the region               Killarney.
investment in the industrial                  would be the new critical care unit in
manufacturing sector and this has been        the midwest regional hospital campus               With the success of the O2 and
well distributed across the regions,          in Dooradoyle, Limerick. This new €20-             Grand Canal (now Bord Gais Energy)
albeit in the key cities. If we look at the   million facility will bring much needed,           Theatre in Dublin, there is an appetite
first quarter announcements from the          state of the art, healthcare facilities to         for an arena in Cork. Badly needed
IDA (summarised below) we can see an          the region. The Limerick Regeneration              many would argue, currently a race
indication of the range of sectors and        Agency (LRA) is also progressing a                 between the BAM/Heineken Brewery
regional spread being achieved.               number of projects with tenders just               Quarter scheme and the O’Callaghan
                                              back on the “Southill Elderly Persons              Properties scheme, both of which now
Limerick, Mid-West Region.                    Accommodation.”                                    have planning permission. In private
Small scale refurbishments and fit outs                                                          healthcare, the Bon Secours Northern
have taken the place of the previous          Cork & Southern Region                             Block project is due to go to site in early
large-scale private commercial and            Cork and the region generally has got              summer, which will provide a much
industrial developments. Commercial           at least its fair share of the school              needed boost to construction activity
property owners are having to work            building programme with a number                   in the city. On the sporting front the
harder to find alternative uses for their     of new schools, and large stand alone              Gaelic Athletic Association (GAA) are
properties in order have any chance of        extensions to existing schools, getting            making a significant investment in
securing lettings, and in a lot of cases      the go-ahead. University College                   re-developing Pairc Ui Chaoimh, with
are succeeding which is encouraging.          Cork (UCC) have completed their new                design commenced on a new covered
                                              extension to the Mardyke Arena which               stand and upgrading of the terraces.
                                              enhances the offering

Table 3: IDA Ireland Announcements Jan - Apr 2012

Region	                          Announcements	            Jobs	         IT	               Financial	     Pharma	        Other

Greater Dublin Area	                           9	         1,280	         1	                8		
South	                                         4	          230	          1		                              1	             2
Mid-West	                                      2	            32				                                                      2
Connaught & North West	                        3	          525	          1		                              2	
North East	                                    1	         1,000		                          1		




28 | Geographies
National University of Ireland, Galway -             National University of Ireland, Galway -
New Engineering Building, Galway.                         New Engineering Building, Galway.
(image courtesy of Neil Warner Photography)     (image courtesy of Neil Warner Photography)




 In larger countries,
 significant regional
 variations in output can
 and do prevail from time to
 time depending on differing
 economic cycles and
 regional needs that exist.
 In Ireland however, regional
 variations in output tend to
 be more subtle.




 University of Limerick - Pavilion, Limerick.
 (image courtesy of Donal Murphy Photography)




                                                                           Geographies | 29
Geographies




Figure 5: Northern Ireland Construction   Galway & Western Region                     indicated in the pie chart on the left.
Industry Output 2011                      In common with the rest of the country      2011 saw the progress of a number
                                          there is a significant overhang of          of significant projects, including the
                                          residential accommodation in the            Titanic Belfast. 2011 and 2012 will see
                                          regions’ provincial towns. However,         the appointment of design teams for a
                       19%                Galway city and suburbs does not            number of long awaited public sector
                                          have an overhang to the same extent         health and sports facilities which are
                                          and in some areas the next couple of        now progressing positively.
                                          years could see a shortage of the right
   23%                                    properties in the right locations.          Whilst the Northern Ireland property
                                   20%                                                market did not see the same extreme
                                          In terms of construction activity in the    of the southern property bubble, it
                                          public sector, education and health         does still have its share of distressed
                                          continue to be the primary sources.         developments. The path of the
                                          National University of Ireland (NUI)        construction industry will continue
                                          Galway continuing on from completion        to depend on the public sector
                          38%             of their New Engineering Building in        capital programme until the local and
                                          2011 with their research bundle of          international economic environment
                                          three buildings currently on site. It       shows signs of recovery.
       Residential
                                          includes a Clinical & Translational
                                          Research Facility on the University
       Infrastructure
                                          Hospital Galway campus in conjunction       Britain
       Public Building
                                          with the Health Service Executive (HSE)
       Private Building                   and the Health Research Board (HRB).        2011 ended immersed in uncertainty.
                                          Whilst the private sector continues to      The Eurozone had lurched from crisis
                                          struggle and there remains a number         to crisis unresolved throughout the
                                          of large development sites vacant in        autumn and into winter.
                                          Galway city, similar to other regions
                                          private healthcare (Galway Clinic           Although statistics show that
                                          continued expansion of facilities) and      construction activity picked up in some
                                          foreign direct investment (FDI) have        areas, it was not enough to cause any
                                          proven to buck the trend. In addition to    rebound in construction prices after
                                          the traditionally strong medical devices    the 18% fall that had occurred since
                                          sector there have been investments in       early 2008. Overall, at the end of 2011,
                                          new areas such as gaming with Bioware       prices were on average 1% lower than
                                          recently establishing a customer            at the end of 2010. There remains a
                                          services centre in Galway.                  huge amount of surplus capacity in the
                                                                                      industry which is why prices have not
                                          Northern Ireland                            moved upwards even when workload
                                          The output of the Northern Ireland          picked up last year.
                                          construction industry was £2.3
                                          billion in 2011. It is likely that this     Low or even cut-throat pricing means
                                          will, similar to the Republic of Ireland,   that claims are inevitably more to the
                                          suffer a decline in 2012. The industry      fore. Some contractors are adopting
                                          breakdown for 2011 by sector is             claims principles on all their contracts



30 | Geographies
Titanic Belfast (image courtesy of Christopher Heaney Photography)




                                                                     Geographies | 31
Qatar Science & Technology Park, Qatar.




There remains a strong                      but many are more discerning, trying        down a further 1-2%. In 2013 no
                                            to maintain good relationships with         significant increase in activity is
pipeline of private                         clients who may have more work to           forecast but contractors will try to
commercial work in London                   offer in the future. Clients and their      improve margin wherever they can.
(but not elsewhere),                        consultants and main contractors
programmed to start                         are now even more concerned over            Construction output and new orders
                                            the stability of the supply chain with      Construction output as measured by
during 2012 but developers                  increasing numbers of subcontractors        the Office for National Statistics (ONS)
are once again becoming                     going into administration. The number       held up unexpectedly well in 2011.
nervous and perhaps                         of companies going to the wall peaked       Output in the public non-housing
holding back from actually                  in 2009 but latest figures show the         sector declined by 5% in 2011 but
                                            trend increasing again.                     infrastructure grew by almost 11% and
pressing the start button                                                               private housing by 8%.
                                            There remains a strong pipeline of
                                            private commercial work in London (but      The decline in new orders in 2011 will
                                            not elsewhere), programmed to start         lead inevitably to a reduction of work
                                            during 2012 but developers are once         on site this year and next. Experian
                                            again becoming nervous and perhaps          are predicting a 1.3% increase in
                                            holding back from actually pressing         2013 while the Construction Products
                                            the start button. Occupier demand           Association (CPA) do not see an
                                            is falling. Banks are embarking on a        increase before 2014.
                                            fresh round of redundancies. Rental
                                            expectations have fallen. John Lewis
                                            and Sainsbury reported a bumper             Global Markets
                                            Christmas sales period but most other
                                            retailers are finding life hard.            Construction Market Overview
                                                                                        2011 was yet another difficult year for
                                            The housing market often leads the          construction globally. Construction
                                            way in the fortunes of the construction     spending growth has stalled and
                                            industry, whether trending up or            2011 was the fourth consecutive
                                            down. House prices in 2011 ended            year with little or no growth. Overall,
                                            slightly down and there may not be          world construction spending grew
                                            a consensus for the trend in 2012           by just 0.5% to $4.6 trillion and is
                                            but many believe 2012 will be worse         still below the levels achieved in
                                            than 2011. So infrastructure may be         2007. However, on a positive note,
                                            the only show in town that is really        2011 saw the first increases in world
                                            looking up but will only be of benefit to   construction spending since the start
                                            specialist contractors and those that       of the recession. Although 2012 is
                                            have consciously tried to reposition        looking slightly more pessimistic as the
                                            themselves over the last few years in       developing economies responsible for
                                            anticipation.                               much of the growth in the recent past
                                                                                        are starting to slow as their developed
                                            In London construction prices will          country export markets continue to
                                            probably continue to flat-line but          decline.
                                            elsewhere prices may well be forced



32 | Geographies
For the second year running China was the
largest construction market in 2011, and is
forecast to be the fastest growing market
through 2012.




On a regional basis, all regions apart                      Figure 6: US$B
from Western Europe and North
America saw positive construction                           0         100             200             300        400             500    600             700            800           900               1000

spending growth, although at reduced
                                               China
levels to those of the recent past. Asia
and Latin America were the fastest              USA

growing regions through 2011 by a wide        Japan

margin.                                     Germany

                                               Brazil
For the second year running China               India
was the largest construction market in
                                              France
2011, and is forecast to be the fastest
                                                  UK
growing market through 2012 (Figures
                                                Italy
6 & 7).
                                               Korea

There were some large regional               Mexico
differences throughout the year.            Australia
Construction spending in Western               Spain
Europe was the most affected with             Others
a contraction of 3%, with the most
significant falls occurring in Portugal,
Ireland, Italy, Greece and Spain. The
continuing sovereign debt problems                      8
and Eurozone crises suggest that
Western Europe will continue to
                                                        6
struggle in the near term.

Regional Overview                                       4

Our review of world construction in
2011 and outlook for 2012 and beyond                    2
concentrates on the six main trading
blocks, namely: Africa; the Americas;                   0
Asia Pacific, Australasia; Europe and
the Middle East.
                                                    -2

Asia Pacific
Asian markets are expected to continue              -4

to exhibit robust construction spending
growth through 2012. China (+9%) is                 -6
the standout followed by India (+8%),
Indonesia (+8%) and Vietnam (+7%). All              -8
sectors are likely to exhibit significant
                                                                USA


                                                                      China


                                                                              Japan


                                                                                            Germany


                                                                                                       Italy


                                                                                                               France


                                                                                                                        Brazil


                                                                                                                                   UK


                                                                                                                                        Korea


                                                                                                                                                India


                                                                                                                                                              Mexico


                                                                                                                                                                       Spain


                                                                                                                                                                                 Austrailia


                                                                                                                                                                                              Others




growth, largely led by non-residential
construction.

                                                                Figure 7: Percentage Change


                                                                                                                                                                               Geographies | 33
Olympic Stadium, London.
(image courtesy of Populous)
David Crosthwaite
Davis Langdon, London,
an AECOM company.




China not only exhibits significant           postponement/cancellation of many             Middle East
levels of growth but is also the largest      planned infrastructure projects.              In the Middle East, moderate
market in the world. China accounted                                                        construction spending growth (+4.2%)
for 41% of the Asia Pacific total in 2011     The fastest growing countries in              is expected through 2012. Much of
(almost twice the size of the Japanese        Western Europe through 2012 are               the growth will be led by increases in
construction market). Construction            expected to be Germany (+1.8%) and            infrastructure construction spending,
spending in China is shifting from            the UK (+1.6%). Ireland, Spain, Portugal,     in particular energy infrastructure.
the coastal cities to the interior and        Italy and Greece are likely to experience
western provinces. Through to 2015,           continuing declines in construction           Saudi Arabia, the largest market in the
infrastructure spending is expected           spending through to 2015, with little         region, is also expected to lead much
to dominate China’s construction              optimism about growth later in the            of the growth in the region (+5% pa)
spending.                                     decade. Indeed through to 2015, their         through to 2015. Followed by a return
                                              share of the Western European market          to growth in the UAE (+4% pa) much of
India on the other hand only accounted        is expected to decline significantly (by      which will be led by Abu Dhabi rather
for just over 10% of the total Asia           as much as 10%) while growth in the           than Dubai which remains subdued and
Pacific market. Given the current             remaining countries remains largely           is largely expected to remain that way
constraints on public finances India is       stagnant. It is likely that it will be 2020   through the forecast period.
seeking increases in private funding          before the market in Western Europe
solutions in the provision of much of         returns to output levels last seen in         Preparation for the FIFA World Cup
the new infrastructure needed.Japan           2007.                                         2022 and upgrading of associated
is expected to see sizable increases                                                        infrastructure is expected to make
in construction spending through              In Eastern Europe there is a more             construction spending growth in Qatar
to 2015 as the earthquake/tsunami             positive picture of construction              amongst the fastest in the world
re-construction effort gathers pace.          spending growth through to 2015.              throughout the next decade.
However, the re-construction is only          However, it should be noted that these
expected to provide a short-term spike        markets are significantly smaller             Africa
in construction activity which is likely to   in terms of volume than those in              Following the recent turmoil in much
return to trend later in the decade.          Western Europe. The fastest growing           of North Africa construction spending
                                              sector is forecast to be the non-             remains constrained, although
Europe                                        residential sector closely followed by        there are expected to be significant
Sovereign debt crises and the                 infrastructure.                               opportunities going forward. In
uncertainty in the Eurozone are                                                             particular, re-construction in Libya and
continuing to constrain construction          The fastest growing countries in              infrastructure upgrades in Egypt are
spending growth in many Western               Eastern Europe through 2012 are               likely to act as a stimulus for the region
European markets. Only the                    expected to be Poland (+9.1%) followed        through to 2015. However, much of this
Scandinavian counties are likely to           by Russia (+6.5%) and Turkey (+5.5%),         has yet to materialise given the ongoing
be largely immune from the impacts.           all with growth levels significantly          uncertainty in the region.
Infrastructure construction is expected       above the average for the region as a
to see declines through to 2015               whole.                                        In the rest of the region there is a
with only limited growth forecast in                                                        mixed picture emerging, with some
both non-residential and residential                                                        areas of strong growth particularly
construction spending. Austerity                                                            Nigeria (+8%) with continuing declines
measures in many Western European                                                           in others, particularly South Africa.
countries have focused on the                                                               Infrastructure construction is forecast




                                                                                                                     Geographies | 35
Figure 8 : Global Construction Spending        to be the fastest growing sector of         Australasia
                                               construction output through to 2015.        Construction spending in Australia
                                                                                           is expected to grow by close to 5% in
                                               The Americas                                2012, boosted by the global demand
                       31%                     Construction spending continues to          for natural resources. Similarly,
                                               be constrained in the US, largely as        construction spending in New Zealand
       34%
                                               a result of the housing crisis and the      is forecast to rise as earthquake re-
                                               impending election. The construction        construction moves forward through to
                                               market in the US is expected to remain      2015.
                                               stagnant through 2012, with little or no
                                               growth forecast, much like construction     General Outlook
                                               spending in Western Europe. Some            In the short term there is expected
                                          1%   growth is expected in Canada and            to be a degree of stagnation in global
                                         2%    Mexico although the problems in the         construction spending through
        25%                             3%     US are expected to constrain growth in      2012, with more sustained growth
                                   4%          both markets through to 2015.               not expected until 2015 onwards.
                                                                                           Developing countries are expected
2020
                                               In contrast much of South America is        to lead any growth through 2012.
                                               expected to see significant growth in       The strongest construction spending
                     46%                       construction spending through 2012. In      growth will again be in China, followed
                                               particular the larger markets of Brazil,    by India and Indonesia.
                                               Argentina and Chile are forecast to see
  17%                                          construction growth of over 5% through      Going forward the outlook for global
                                               2012. Indeed, Brazil and Panama are         construction is likely to be dictated
                                               likely to have construction spending        by development status. Generally, the
 24%                                           growth of over 10% pa through to            share of global construction spending
                                               2015, significantly above the average       continues to shift from developed
                                               for the region as a whole. Much of the      country markets to developing country
                                               growth in South America will be led by      markets (Figure 8). In particular, the
                                               increases in infrastructure spending        Asian market has increased from a
                                               (particularly energy and transportation)    share of 31% in 2005 to a forecast
                                               closely followed by spending on non-        share of 46% by 2020. This shift is
          5%                                   residential structures.                     largely at the expense of decline in
                4% 2% 2%
                                                                                           the Western Europe market which has
                                               In Brazil, preparations for the 2014 FIFA   shrunk from a share of 35% in 2005 to a
   Asia                  Latin America         World Cup and the 2016 Rio Olympics         forecast share of 24% in 2020.
   Western Europe        Middle east           are well advanced and increases in
   North America         Africa                construction spending are largely being
   Eastern Europe                              led by infrastructure upgrades.             David Crosthwaite
                                                                                           Davis Langdon, an AECOM company




36 | Geographies
2016 Olympic Park, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.
             (image courtesy of AECOM)
University of Limerick - Pavilion, Limerick.
(image courtesy of Donal Murphy Photography)




                                               Knowledge




Technical Data
Indicative Building Costs




	                                                	           € per square metre	   The figures quoted are for mid-range
                                                                                   buildings in the Dublin area at January
Healthcare				                                                                     2012 prices. Due to the volatile nature
Hospitals			             1,600 	                                        2,500      of the current market and the low
Primary Care Centres		 	 1,400 	                                        1,800      tenders being received, it is possible
Nursing Homes			         1,400 	                                        2,000
                                                                                   that tenders will be received outside
Education					                                                                     of these ranges. Professional advice
Primary Schools			                                              930 	 1,100        should be sought for specific projects.
Secondary Schools			                                            930 	 1,100
Third Level			                                                1,350 	 2,500        The Davis Langdon indicative building
				
Commercial				                                                                     costs should NOT be used for fire
Offices	                  -	 Shell & Core (Landlord Fit-Out)	 1,300 	 1,900        insurance valuations or for residual
	                         -	 Owner Occupied	                  1,500 	 2,400        valuations for funding purposes.
Offices Fit-Out	          -	 Basic	                             300 	   450
	                         -	 Medium	                            450 	   700        If you require a valuation for fire
	                         -	 High	                              700 	 1,050        insurance or more specific information,
	                         -	 Top	                             1,050 	 1,800        please contact Davis Langdon.
Shopping Centres	         -	 Shell & Core	                      600 	 1,000
	                         -	 Mall	                            1,300 	 2,400        When considering building costs you
	                         -	 Fit-Out	                           850 	 1,400
				                                                                               should check if costs include:
Residential			
Apartments			                                                 1,200 	 1,600        -	   Value Added Tax
Apartments (12-16 storey)			                                  1,500 	 1,950        -	   Professional Fees
Social Housing			                                               850 	 1,250        -	   Inflation
Sheltered Housing			                                            950 	 1,450        -	   Fit-Out
Housing (Suburban Housing)		                                    800 	 1,000        -	   Landlord Fit Out/Landlord Credits
				
Industrial				                                                                     -	   Furniture
Warehouse/Factory Shell			                                      550 	   650        -	   Planning Levies, Fees & Charges
Factory (Basic)			                                              650 	   900        -	   Demolition
High Spec Factory	        -	 Shell & Core	                      850 	 1,200        -	   Abnormal Ground Conditions
	                         -	 Fit-Out	                           650 	 1,100
				
Leisure				
Cinema			                                                     1,500 	 2,100	
Hotels	                   -	 3/4 star	                        1,300 	 1,950
	                         -	 5 star	                          1,950 	 3,000
Swimming pool (60% wet & 40% dry)	                            1,600 	 2,100
Car Parks				
Surface (including drainage & lighting)	 100 	                             210
Multi-Storey	               		           350 	                             600
Single Basement	            		           500 	                             800
Double Basement			                       700 	                           1,100
Public Buildings		
Fire Station			                                             1350	        1650
Prison			                                                   1850	        2500
Courthouse			                                               1650	        2050


                                                                                                          Technical Data | 39
Key Performance Bond Actions




Unfortunately, the focus on performance bonds has
increased dramatically in recent years due to market
forces. Broadly, a performance bond is a “contract of
guarantee” whereby one party (the guarantor (the bond
provider) undertakes to pay damages to a second party (the
employer) arising from breach of contract by a third party
(the contractor). Set out below is a checklist of actions in
acquiring and calling in a bond.

Summary of Key Performance Bond Actions

Ref	 Description	                                                 Checklist   Ref	 Description	                                       Checklist

1.0	   Pre-Tender	                                                	           5.0	 Typical Heads of Claim for Submission to Bond co.	 	
1.1	   Agree bond parameters with client	                                     5.1	 Procurement & Construction		
	      (value, duration etc)	                                                 5.11	 Cost of re-tendering process	                         	
1.2	   Seek bond co. confirmation of availability at	                  	      5.12	 Any premium arising from cost of 	
	      pre-qualification stage	                                               	     replacement contractor 	
1.3	   Issue bond wording with tender documents	                      		      5.13	 Other	                                                	
	                                                                             		
2.0	   Post-Tender/Pre-Contract	                                              5.2	 Professional Fees	
2.1	   Request bond to be provided as part of letter of intent	       		      5.21	 Design team 	                                         	
2.2	   Respond to bond co. questionnaire	                             		      5.22	 Legal fees	                                           	
                                                                              5.23	 Other	                                                	
	                                                                             		
3.0	 Post-Contract	                                                           5.3	 Client Direct Costs	
3.1	 Notify Bond co. immediately upon a default event 	               	       5.31	 Client direct staff costs	                            	
	    (typically insolvency)	                                                  5.32	 Any additional financing costs	                       	
3.2	 Actively engage with bond co.	                                   	       5.33	 Insurance costs post default	                         	
3.3	 Invite bond co. to visit site to make their own cost	             		     5.34	 Other	                                                	
	    assessment of works	                                                     		
3.4	 Advise bond co. of your proposed process for 	                           5.4	 Security/Health & Safety	
	    appointment of replacement	                                              5.41	 Any security required post-default	
3.5	 Agree protocols for managing tender process	                     	       5.42	 Any emergency H&S works carried out post default	     	
3.6	 Other	                                                           	       5.43	 Other	
		
4.0	 Submission of Claim	
4.1	 Notify bond co. immediately upon a default event 	                       Please contact Anthony McDermott for further information
	    (typically insolvency)	                                                  anthony.mcdermott@davislangdon.com			
4.2	 Actively engage with bond co.	                                   	       	
4.3	 Submit termination valuation	                                    	
4.4	 Invite bond co. to visit site to make their own cost 	
	    assessment of Works	
4.5	 Submit claim on completion 	
	    (see sample heads of claim opposite)



      Introduction
40 | Technical Data
Project Planning Checklist




Checklists are perhaps the simplest and most productive                 An experienced project manager will assist you through these
means of building consistency in work practices. In this                stages, with development of a project management plan
project planning checklist, we summarise a high-level twelve            capturing planning strategy, execution strategy and project
point checklist of important project planning steps to help             management techniques that address items 1 to 9 below thus
you pave the way to successful project management.                      creating a platform for successful project management and
                                                                        delivery.




Ref	   Description	                                    Checklist        Ref	   Description	                                  Checklist

1.	    Agree justification for the project, including 	                 7.	    Establish and implement change control 	
	      appraisal of business case, commercial viability                 	      procedure
	      and technical feasibility checks
                                                                        8.	    Plan for risk management and value management	            		
2.	    Establish project governance at the onset such	                  	      at appropriate stages/gateways
	      as compliance with EU regulations, national or 			
	      corporate guidelines/governance relating to                      9.	    Identify and procure the disciplines and 	
	      procurement or contractual requirement                           	      specialisations that will be required on the
                                                                        	      project including consultants (design, quantity 			
3.	    Identify all stakeholder and instil a management	           		   	      surveying, legal, planning advisors, etc.),
	      plan to identify and manage their requirements                   	      works contractors of suppliers
	      and concerns throughout the project lifecycle
                                                                        10.	 Obtain sign-off on the definitive brief from the 	
4.	    Define and agreed project organisational	                        	    relevant stakeholders and acceptance from the 			
	      structure, communication and reporting strategy,                 	    appointed consultant to deliver same
	      roles and responsibilities
                                                                        11.	   Ensure an experienced project manager/project	
5.	    Generate definitive brief that defines the scope,	               	      coordinator is acting on your behalf during the
	      overall programme, available budget, quality                     	      delivery stage to ensure compliance with project 			
	      standards, project deliverables, success criteria                	      objectives and manage day-to-day issues that
	      and mission statement/project charter                            	      may arise

6.	    Establish appropriate ‘gateways’ for design to 	                 12.	 Undertake a project review at completion to 	
	      pass to confirm compliance with definitive brief 			             	    establish lessons learned, etc.
	      requirements




                                                                                                                    Technical Data | 41
University of Limerick - Pavilion, Limerick.
                      (image courtesy of Donal Murphy Photography)




42 | Technical Data
Development Budget Checklist




It is critical in establishing a development budget to adopt
a methodical approach and to ensure those conducting
the exercise have the experience and database of relevant
information to establish a realistic budget. A sample of the
principal budget headings are listed in the Table below.


Summary of Development Budget Checklist

Ref	 Description	                Checklist    Ref	    Description	             Checklist   Ref	   Description	              Checklist


1.0	   Land Purchase	                         4.0	    Professional Fees	                   5.0	 Selling & Letting Costs	
1.1	   Site cost	                             4.1	    Project manager	                 	   5.1	 Agents	
1.2	   Stamp duty	                            4.2	    Concept architect	                   5.2	 Legal’s	
1.3	   Legal costs	                           4.3	    Masterplanning	                      5.3	 Marketing costs 	
1.4	   Agent’s fees	                          4.4	    Architect	                           5.4	 Mock-Up units	                      	
1.5	   Finance costs	                         4.5	    Quantity surveyor	                   5.5	 Model	
1.6	   Arrangement fees	                      4.6	    Structural engineer	                 5.6	 Photographic	
1.7	   Other	                                 4.7	    Civil engineer	                      5.7	 Site boards	                        	
	                                             4.8	    Services engineer	               	   5.8	 Pre-Opening costs	
2.0	   Stat. Fees & Contributions             4.9	    Health & safety consultant	          5.9	 Tenant incentives	
2.1	   Planning fees	                         4.10	   Planning consultant	                 5.10	 Tenant enhancements	
2.2	   Fire certification	                    4.11	   Fire consultant	                     5.11	 Other	                             	
2.3	   Planning contributions	                4.12	   Traffic consultant	                  		
2.4	   Infrastructure	                        4.13	   Facade Cconsultant	                  6.0	 Financing	
2.5	   Infrastructure apportionment	          4.14	   Landscape architect	                 6.1	 Equity	
2.6	   Works to adjacent properties	          4.15	   Employers representative	        	   6.2	 Senior debt	
2.7	   Land remediation	                      4.16	   Acoustic consultant	                 6.3	 Mezzanine debt	
2.8	   Costs to date	                         4.17	   Environmental engineer	              6.4	 Arrangement fees	
2.9	   Other	                                 4.18	   Archaeologist	                       6.5	 Due diligence	
	                                             4.19	   Resident engineer	                   6.6	 Other	                              	
3.0	   Construction Costs                     4.20	   Site survey	                         	
3.1	   Construction cost estimate	            4.21	   Structural survey	                   7.0	 Miscellaneous	
3.2	   Inflation/deflation	                   4.22	   Photographic survey	                 7.1	 Developers management fee	
3.3	   Costs to date	                         4.23	   Contamination survey	                7.2	 Tax Advice/accounting	
3.4	   Phasing costs	                         4.24	   Other	                           	   7.3	 Adjoining neighbours	
3.5	   Owner insurances	                                                                   7.4	 Contingency	                        	
3.6	   Other	                                 	                                            7.5	 Other	                              	

Sales Revenues                                                                             		
Letting Revenues




                                                                                                                 Technical Data | 43
Highfield Hospital, Dublin.




                              Performance




Davis Langdon
News
Promotions
We are delighted to announce that
we made two promotions within our
management team this year.

Jason Hobson Shaw, who has been
with us since 1998, was made a
Regional Director and is based in the
Dublin office. Jason, who spent a
number of years working in Australia
and the Far East, leads our healthcare
team.

Declan Hegarty, who joined in 2006,
has been promoted to Associate in
our Dublin office. Declan has a wide
range of commercial experience having
delivered the €200 million Grand Canal
Theatre and is currently delivering the
Grangegorman HSE facility and the
Grand Canal Dock Hotel.


                                          Charity at work                            Public Sector Workshop
                                          Our annual get together this year was      Davis Langdon held a public workshop
                                          made all the more inviting by the baking   in April, attended by the various
                                          skills of our staff. All proceeds went     stakeholders in the industry. Healthy
                                          to Cancer Ireland . The event was held     debate ensued amongst the hundred
                                          in conjunction with AECOM offices          or so guests as the tough challenges
                                          throughout the UK, who raised money        in the industry were deliberated. This
                                          in aid of Macmillan Cancer Support.        workshop was to provide an opportunity
                                          Davis Langdon proceeds went to Cancer      to discuss some of the key issues and
                                          Ireland                                    opportunities in the delivery of the
Jason Hobson Shaw   Declan Hegarty
                                                                                     public sector capital programme.




                                                                                                    Davis Langdon News | 45
Davis Langdon
People

                   Paul Mitchell        Tomás Kelly          David Johnston
                   Director             Regional Director    Associate
                   paul.mitchell@       tomas.kelly          david.johnston@
                   davislangdon.com     @davislangdon.com    davislangdon.com
                   + 353 1 4320460      + 353 91 530199      + 353 21 436 5006




                   John O’Regan         Jason Hobson-Shaw    Neil McBeth
                   Director             Regional Director    Associate
                   john.o’regan@        jason.hobson-shaw@   neil.mcbeth@
                   davislangdon.com     davislangdon.com     davislangdon.com
                   + 353 91 530199      + 353 1 4320434      + 353 1 4320478




                   Anthony McDermott    John Lombard         Stuart Griffin
                   Regional Director    Associate            Associate
                   anthony.mcdermott@   john.lombard@        stuart.griffin@
                   davislangdon.com     davislangdon.com     davislangdon.com
                   + 353 1 4320481      + 353 1 4320413      + 353 21 436 5006




                   Gregory Flynn        Mark Smith           Eoin Dunphy
                   Regional Director    Associate            Associate
                   gregory.flynn@       mark.smith@          Eoin.dunphy@
                   davislangdon.com     davislangdon.com     davislangdon.com
                   + 353 1 4320498      + 353 1 4320438      + 353 1 4320404




                   Cathal Barry         Andrew Thompson      Declan Hegarty
                   Regional Director    Associate            Associate
                   cathal.barry@        andrew.thompson@     declan.hegarty@
                   davislangdon.com     davislangdon.com     davislangdon.com
                   + 353 61 318870      + 353 61 318870      + 353 1 4320465




46 | Davis Langdon People
The Great Western Greenway, Mayo.	
(image courtesy of Mayo County Council and
Michael McLaughlin Photography)




                                                                                      Highfield Hospital, Dublin.




                                             National University of Ireland, Galway - New Engineering Building, Galway.
                                                                                      Davis Langdon People | 47
                                                                           (image courtesy of Neil Warner Photography)
This page and Cover

  University College Dublin - Student Learning,
  Leisure & Sports Facility, Dublin.
  (images courtesy of Donal Murphy Photography)




48 | Davis Langdon
About AECOM                                     Key offices in Ireland
AECOM is a global provider of professional      Davis Langdon, an AECOM Company
technical and management support services       Dublin Office
to a broad range of markets, including          24 Lower Hatch Street			
transportation, facilities, environmental,      Dublin 2
energy, water and government.  With             T: 353 1 676 3671			
approximately 45,000 employees around           F: 353 1 676 3672			
the world, AECOM is a leader in all of the      E: paul.mitchell@davislangdon.com			
key markets that it serves.  AECOM provides
a blend of global reach, local knowledge,       Davis Langdon, an AECOM Company
innovation and technical excellence in          Galway Office
delivering solutions that create, enhance       Heritage Hall
and sustain the world’s built, natural          Kirwan’s Lane
and social environments.  A Fortune 500         Galway
company, AECOM serves clients in more           T: 353 91 530 199
than 130 countries and has annual revenue       F: 353 91 530 198
in excess of $8.0 billion.                      E: john.o’regan@davislangdon.com

More information on AECOM and its services      Davis Langdon, an AECOM Company
can be found at www.aecom.com.                  Limerick Office
                                                Mezzanine Suite
                                                Riverpoint
                                                Lower Mallow Street
                                                Limerick
                                                T: 353 61 318 870
                                                F: 353 61 318 871
                                                E: cathal.barry@davislangdon.com

                                                Davis Langdon, an AECOM Company
                                                Cork Office
                                                Douglas Business Centre
                                                Carrigaline Road
                                                Douglas
                                                Cork
                                                T: 353 21 436 5006
                                                F: 353 21 436 5160
                                                E: david.johnston@davislangdon.com




Program, Cost, Consultancy
www.davislangdon.com
www.aecom.com

Designed and delivered by Baseline CS Ireland

Davis Langdon Ireland Review 2012

  • 1.
    REVIEW Davis Langdon IrelandAnnual Review 2012
  • 2.
    AECOM’s global capabilities: Architecture BuildingEngineering Construction Services Design + Planning Economics Energy Environment Government Mining Oil + Gas Program, Cost, Consultancy Program Management Transportation Water With approximately 45,000 employees around the world, AECOM serves clients in more than 130 countries.
  • 3.
    Contents INTRODUCTION 1 BUSINESS INTELLIGENCE 20 Pat Gunne, Green Property OVERVIEW 2 Bill Nowlan, W.K. Nowlan Medium Term Outlook Maurice Mortell, Telecity Construction Costs & Tender Prices Donal Murphy, Bank of Ireland Where now for the Public Sector? NAMA: Is the bottom line everything? GEOGRAPHIES 26 Island of Ireland SECTOR DEVELOPMENTS 8 UK Public Global Markets Commercial Retail TECHNICAL DATA 38 Residential Indicative Building Costs Hotels, Sports & Culture Performance Bond Checklist Infrastructure & Industry Project Planning Checklist Development Budget Driver INDUSTRY DEVELOPMENTS 14 Alternative Funding Sources for the DAVIS LANGDON NEWS 44 Property Industry Promotions Work Outs by Asset Managers Public Sector Workshop Repair & Maintenance Examples of Recently Completed Projects Abnormally Low Tenders DAVIS LANGDON PEOPLE 46
  • 4.
    Introduction Paul Mitchell Director Head of Office – Ireland We are delighted to welcome you as getting its just comeuppance for the Some of the ideas or concepts to this year’s Annual Review of the fallout of the boom. We currently have mentioned above are tried and trusted construction industry. We have included an industry that has had 50% of its mechanisms used in the delivery of a wide range of commentary and top ten contractors become insolvent projects in other jurisdictions and analysis on the Irish construction since 2007, some remaining contractors solve a real need in delivering critical industry, looking at each of the sectors choosing not to bid for certain public infrastructure. We need a champion at and recent industry developments, work due to the cost of procurement the highest levels within government plus our colleagues give an update on and risks associated with the public who will work towards delivering a what’s happening in the global markets. works contract (even in this market!) sustainable construction industry. We have also included a business and ongoing sub-contractor insolvency/ intelligence section which features a liquidity issues. Consultancy practices On the brighter side we have seen the number of interviews with prominent are experiencing similar difficulties. positive effects of the Foreign Direct industry figures who give us their Some ideas that the Government could Investment secured by the Industrial thoughts on their sectors and areas of consider include: Development Agency (IDA) Ireland, expertise. etc. Also, the recent announcement The easy wins: by National Asset Management Whilst on a global level construction - Introduce Procurement Passports Agency (NAMA) to inject €2 billion into output is stable, if somewhat stagnated - Review handcuffs of Circular 10/10 construction over a four year period in the short term, our domestic - Procure projects with committed to complete construction projects market has continued its decline funding and address the shortfall in supply albeit at a slower rate. Our estimate - Alter award criteria to deter below of appropriate space is extremely of construction output for 2012 is cost tenders welcome. This represents a 6% per €7.75 billion, down 9% on last year annum (p.a.) increase in construction compared to a reduction of 27% the More difficult but achievable: output if it is delivered. We have also previous year. So, the good news is that - Prioritise labour intensive projects seen some of the large funds enter the the contraction is slowing; the bad - Deliver the capital programme market with purchases such as One news is that the market is operating - Review the Capital Works Warrington Place which is a real sign of at a completely unsustainable level. Management Framework (CWMF) by confidence and stability. In our overview section we show, even including partnering type contract. with an optimistic 15% year-on-year - Bring the Real Estate Investments We hope you enjoy the read and would growth from 2014, it could take until Trust (REIT) legislation into law like to take this opportunity to thank 2020 to reach the optimum level of all our clients and colleagues for your output required for a proper functioning Leadership required; continued support during the year industry. - Stimulus Package, e.g. healthcare and look forward to providing more focused business solutions to you in the coming In last year’s review we called for - Encourage Pension Funds into year. leadership from the Government in market, e.g. Student Accommodation, terms of supporting the construction Social housing Paul Mitchell industry and acknowledging the - Promote Qualifying Investor Funds crucial role that the construction (QIF’s) in funding property & sector plays in the economy. We were construction programmes, e.g. not alone in our call but apart from primary care centres some behind-the-scene meetings and - Consider Project Bonds to deliver various gestures, there has been little infrastructure, e.g. Broadband and Director, Head of Office – Ireland or no action. It would appear that the Power paul.mitchell@davislangdon.com construction sector continues to be - Engage with the Professional viewed in the negative context of the Bodies to generate workable property industry and somehow seen solutions Introduction | 1
  • 5.
    The Model Artsand Niland Gallery, Sligo. (image courtesy of Paul Tierney Photography) Consultants Overview
  • 6.
    The aftershocks ofthe financial crisis continue to dominate the framing of the Exchequer budgets and domestic demand generally. The last 12 months have certainly Medium Term Outlook levels which are unsustainable even in been less “eventful” than the previous Of course what happened yesterday is the short term. We believe there is an couple of years in terms of economic of relatively little importance compared urgent need to re-visit the strategy in shocks and financial upheavals. The to what happens tomorrow. In this this regard and as we highlight in the fact that we haven’t had any further regard the publication of the public following opinion piece the economy significant banking debt added to capital expenditure plans in the annual needs an increase in investment in the already seismic burden or had budget is always keenly awaited. social and productive infrastructure to the need to introduce mini-budgets As has been the trend for the last provide both increased attractiveness mid-year could be seen as a sense of number of years, the December 2011 to business and to act as a stimulus to stability returning to the economy — if Budget included a multi-annual Public general economic growth levels which you take the glass half full approach Capital Programme (PCP) extending out are struggling to stay out of recession to economics. Certainly we feel that to 2016 (see Table 1). territory. it is imperative that everyone takes the glass half full approach, however, Unfortunately, the past experience of The construction industry has been always remaining mindful of the such multi-annual capital programmes existing on a virtual treadmill for baseline we are measuring against. has been their propensity to vary the last four years with the result That baseline has been tracking very radically as opposed to their reliability that whilst we have not progressed, low since the sheer drop experienced in terms of not changing. Of course this everyone still standing is leaner and in 2008 and the aftershocks of the very characteristic of change could be fitter. The reality is that the race is financial crisis continue to dominate used as precedent to instigate positive probably only half run, and with the the framing of the Exchequer budgets change to the “programme” laid out for passing of the fiscal compact in the and domestic demand generally. the next three years. The PCP for 2013 medium term the requirements of the represents a further 14% reduction (in troika programme and/or the markets In addition, as a small open economy, value terms) on that approved for 2012 will demand that public spending will we are significantly impacted by and this would further reduce output continue to be sharply restrained. We activity levels in foreign markets and in in the construction industry below will be reliant on a boost in Foreign particular Europe. The last 12 months have been plagued by the never ending string of crisis summits at the Public Capital Programme - Direct Exchequer Capital Funding €M European level which have further unsettled confidence, notwithstanding 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2012 - 2016 the weakening of the Euro having Transport, Tourism & Sport 1,231 900 879 818 818 4,646 some positive impacts in terms of (mostly road maintenance) making our exports more competitive in global markets. Environment, Community 861 726 575 574 574 3,310 & Local Government Jobs, Enterprise & Innovation 514 458 457 454 451 2,334 Education & Skills 430 415 475 475 415 2,210 Health 390 390 390 390 390 1,950 Other 509 484 477 542 605 2,617 TOTAL 3,935 3,373 3,253 3,253 3,253 17,067 TABLE 1 : MULTI-ANNUAL CAPITAL INVESTMENT FRAMEWORK 2012-2016 Overview | 3
  • 7.
    Tomás Kelly Regional Director MediumTerm Outlook Direct Investment (FDI) and indigenous Figure 1: Construction Output Scenario Tracker export companies, which we appear to 40,000 Optimum be seeing the beginnings of, to mitigate 35,000 Construction Output the reductions elsewhere in the private (Based on 12% of sector. We expect output levels to 30,000 GNP) €’000’s bottom out in 2013 before showing low 25,000 Construction single digit growth in 2014 onwards. 20,000 Output €’000’s 15,000 Construction There is a real danger of a skills Output 10,000 shortage materializing across a number (Scenario A 10% of the key craftsmen and professional 5,000 p.a. growth) €’000’s groups. Construction 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 Output (Scenario B 15% “To illustrate the long path to recovery p.a. growth) €’000’s facing the construction industry, Figure 1 shows the sustainable level of output for the industry (based on TABLE 2 : Construction Output Projections (e) Estimated (f) Forecast The Society of Chartered Surveyors Ireland (SCSI) Report stating 12% of Gross National Product) based on 2% Construction Output €m €m €m GNP growth and for the purposes of 2011 2012(e) 2013(f) the example two scenarios of 10% per annum and 15% per annum growth CENTRAL BANK 8,822 7,862 7,426 in construction output. We know from Tender Prices % -1.10 — experience that the growth/decline rates of construction output are Volume Change % -9.90 -5.50 cyclical but even with these ambitious SCSI 8,684 7,448 6,956 growth examples it would be 2020 or 2023 before the sustainable Tender Prices % — — level would be reached. In respect Volume Change % -14.50 -6.60 of our output projections in Table 2, DAVIS LANGDON 8,500 7,755 7,827 there are inevitably downside risks however, hopefully the recent NAMA Tender Prices % 3.00 3.00 announcement of investment of €2 Volume Change % -11.40 -2.00 billion over the next four years will go some way to insulating against such industry and those of other services and it didn’t seem to matter risks. As a measure of the significance commentarys in the industry. too much as people’s incomes were of this NAMA announcement, if the €2 rising similarly. billion is spread evenly over the four Construction Costs & years the €500 million in 2013, would Tender Prices Needless to say the adjustment has be equivalent to the proposed reduction Increased competitiveness was a much been sharp and none more so than in the Public Capital Programme.” sought after aspiration during the later in the construction industry, however part of the Celtic Tiger period and with in common with other sectors the Table 2 outlines a summary of our some justification as everyone had cost base has been less elastic than projections for the construction got used to paying more for goods and prices. Tender prices saw a cumulative 4 | Overview
  • 8.
    National University ofIreland, Galway - New Engineering Building, Galway. (image courtesy of Neil Warner Photography)
  • 9.
    It is notonly consultants and contractors that find public projects tough going. Individuals within public bodies have been faced with their own range of challenges, including a moratorium on recruitment, non-renewal of fixed term contract staff, early retirements, re-deployments, being forced to accept below cost tendering and decentralisation. 37.5% drop between 2007 and 2010 increase at modest levels of on average level of €3.3 billion per annum. However inclusive whereas official statistics circa 3% p.a. in 2012 and similar to consultants and contractors it is would indicate that costs have been modest increases in 2013, with the seen as an extremely challenging largely static (and in some instances cautionary note that the industry may environment to do business in. increasing) in the same period. Of experience a shortage of competition course, labour costs have in reality in certain sectors and in particular for Some of the key reasons for this are: dropped further through a combination high value contracts. of salary cuts and reduced overtime 1. Cost of Procurement procedures payments, etc. The announcement Where now for the Public and Tendering in June 2010 and implementation in Sector? 2. Cost focus of tender process February 2011 of the 7.5% reduction Davis Langdon, an AECOM company’s leading to “race to the bottom” in Registered Employment Agreement estimate of the construction industry wage rates was indicated as a in 2012 is €7.75 billion as compared 3. Risk transfers temporary measure to be reviewed thus to an output in 2011 of €8.5 billion. we would expect murmurings of such The recent SCSI Construction Industry 4. Cost incurred on cancelled projects a review to emerge in the second half report (prepared by DKM Economic 5. Resources & Skills deficit in public of 2012 with arguments on both sides Consultants) has identified that a sector clients (unions and employers) for upward and sustainable level of construction downward movements respectively. output in a mature economy should be It is not only consultants and circa 12% of GNP (or 10% of GDP). contractors that find public projects On the materials side, the continuing tough going. Individuals within public increasing energy costs, growing Based on GNP of €129 billion/GDP bodies have been faced with their demand in developing countries and of €161 billion in 2011 a sustainable own range of challenges, including weakness in the Euro will keep upward level of output would be in circa € a moratorium on recruitment, non- pressure on imports in particular. 16 billion. This is over double the renewal of fixed term contract staff, current projected output. So the real early retirements, re-deployments and In summary, we would anticipate question is, in a number of years when decentralisation. construction costs of circa +2% in 2012 (hopefully) stability and a sustainable and +2.5% in 2013. output level returns to the market, what Whilst the number of projects has sort of construction industry will we diminished, the workload on each In terms of tender prices, after the have in Ireland? project has increased due to the sharp decline referred to above, 2011 challenges of the economic climate saw some stability return to the The current industry is characterised and the new procedures and contracts market and we recorded an average by uncertainty, insolvency, below cost introduced through the Capital Works 3% increase. We would see this return tendering and conflict. This, combined Management Framework. These to tender price increases more a with the massive reduction in output, procedures have been introduced with correction of prices having overshot any has resulted in a collapse in morale in little training and are subject to change. possible reduction in costs, rather than the industry and a wide-spread skills The introduction of the Department the restoration of profits in 2011. drain, both from the industry and the of Finance Circular 10/10, whilst well country. intentioned, placed another regulatory Whilst we continue to see tenders being burden on project and procurement submitted which could be considered The Multi Annual Capital Investment managers in the public sector. “potentially abnormally low,” their Framework (MACIF) (see Table 1 prevalence is reducing. We would on page 3), shows a stable level of The net effect of all these issues is anticipate tender prices to continue to spending over the next four years at a that the area of the Irish construction 6 | Overview
  • 10.
    National Gallery ofIreland, Shaw Room, Dublin. industry that one would expect to price, before embarking on funding be the most stable is a very difficult construction projects. place to do business in. The fear is that dynamic and innovative players in Irish However, NAMA has played some role construction industry will tire of the in getting projects moving, whether challenges of public sector projects through supporting the borrowers in and will turn their focus to emerging completing housing schemes, providing elements of the private sector such staple finance to schemes being as the Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) purchased by investors or completion market or growth markets overseas. of schemes using receivers. The potential knock-on effect of this would be to leave public sector The previous 12 months have probably construction projects in a place been the most productive in actual characterised by confrontation, poor delivery of the individual business performance and the associated plan objectives leading to a number of challenges to successful delivery of distressed asset disposals that require good projects. We are already seeing construction activity during their examples of this on the ground. workout phase, albeit not amounting to any appreciable turnover. NAMA: Is the bottom line everything? NAMA have approved working and They certainly have had a busy year. development capital advances of In last year’s annual review published €1.1 billion of which €506 million June 2011, the focus was on completing relates to Ireland. This expenditure the transfer of the loans. However, is being advanced through its debtor the intervening period has seen NAMA companies, i.e. borrowers whose loans make significant strides in the area of have been deemed eligible and have enforcement. been transferred to the group. In July, NAMA published a list of 847 In 2012/13 the best prospect one can 1200 properties which were in receivership hope for from NAMA in relation to what 1,169 1,119 or administration, a number which it can do for the construction industry 1000 1,093 1,040 steadily rose throughout the year to is the disposal of assets/sites that 800 887 1,169 at the end of March 2012 (see are in demand, e.g. incomplete office 847 Figure 2). blocks with ready to go end users/ 600 tenants, unfinished semi-detached, 400 NAMA have stated that it has housing schemes that are in demand, completed its loan evaluation of etc. Obviously, the successful entry of 200 business plans covering 97% of the these schemes to market is dependent loans on its balance sheet as at the end on the right purchase price as opposed 0 Jul 11 Aug11 Nov11 Dec11 Feb 11 Mar12 of March 2012. to any other factor. However, given the demand for offices, for example, from Figure 2: So what does all this mean for the multi-nationals and the limited amount Properties in receivership/administration construction industry? Obviously of suitable stock in the appropriate one of the stated objectives of NAMA areas, it is likely that this year will be is to dispose of assets, at the right more fruitful than the last. Overview | 7
  • 11.
    The National Galleryof Ireland, Milltown Wing, Dublin. Expert Sector Developments
  • 12.
    Across all sectors,the key trend has been the reduction in the contract values of projects in recent years. Last year we highlighted the seismic Figure 3: Estimated Sector Breakdown of Construction Industry 2012 shift in the construction industry (SCSI/Davis Langdon Estimates) output over the five year period from 2006 to 2011. Namely the collapse Industry (6%) of the residential sector and the Commercial (5%) return of the public sector civil and Other Private Non-National (2%) general building programme to being Education (6%) the primary source of output. Not Health (4%) surprisingly then there has been a Energy (13%) sharp focus on movements in that programme which we will review in our Roads (10%) sector review. Water & Sanitary Services (8%) Transport (3%) Last year we also signalled the Telecommunication (2%) emergence of encouraging signs in the Other public Non-Residential (3%) Irish export market as well as Foreign Residential (38%) Direct Investment (FDI) sectors, and thankfully these early signs appear to allocation. Figure 4 illustrates the be bearing fruit. departmental allocations and the One of the difficulties being percentage adjustment in 2011. experienced in the first half of 2012 Across all the sectors, the key trend has been the slow progression of public has been the reduction in the contract (For further details of Budget 2012 sector projects. There have been a values of projects; reflecting both the Public Capital Programme please number of reasons, however, the two decrease in tender prices in the last contact Tomás Kelly at tomas.kelly@ most prevalent relate to the area of number of years combined with the davislangdon.com ) public procurement. reduced scope of works being carried out. Figure 2 illustrates the sector Figure 4 : Public Capital Programme Budget Direct Exchequer Funding 2011 & 2012 breakdown of the industry output in €m 10% 2012. 1600 0% Public 1400 -10% The Government announced the broad 1200 parameters of their 2012 Public Capital 1000 -20% Programme when they published their -30% Infrastructure and Capital Investment 800 2012-2016 document in November 600 -40% 2011 and further detail and breakdown 400 -50% was provided in the budget last December. 200 -60% 0 -70% The Multi Annual Capital Investment Environment, Communications, Transport Tourism and Sport Community & Local Government Jobs, Enterprise & Innovation Education & Skills Health Agriculture , Food & Marine Energy & Natural Resources OPW Other Framework (MACIF) 2012 provision showed a 16% drop on the 2011 figures Percentage change which has meant every department Output 2011 has seen a reduction in their capital Output 2012 Sector Developments | 9
  • 13.
    Telecity Datacentre, Dublin. JFK Primary School, Limerick. 10 | Sector Developments
  • 14.
    John O’Regan Anthony McDermott Mark Smith Director Regional Director Associate Public Commercial Retail Firstly, there appeared to be a the commercial office fit-out sector From a retailers perspective, the significant slowdown in the number of was still reasonably active in 2011. Government’s decision not to proceed etender contract notices in 2011 and with legislation in relation to Upward the second half in particular. Due to Activity in the commercial office sector Only Rent Reviews combined with the the long sequence of events required is looking steady for 2012. Take up increase in the Value Added Tax (VAT) from notice placement, procuring is down for the 1st quarter of 2012 rate has created much angst and a consultants, obtaining statutory compared to the first quarter of 2011 viewpoint that it will be later rather consents and advertising and tendering but this is mainly due to prolonged than sooner for the retail market as a main contract works, any interruption negotiations, the “one off” Montreveto whole to improve. to this cycle is likely to slow down the take up (45,000 square feet) last year capital programme. and some businesses looking to curtail Murmurs of planning reform in relation expansion until the economic climate to the current retail size cap to allow The other factor has been the improves. companies considering large operating increasing duration required in store’s such as Wal-Mart and Costco the tender evaluation phase. This Demand for office space in Dublin is or even Tesco-Extra stores have been has arisen for a number of reasons actually up 70% for the first quarter of aired in documents about Ireland’s including: 2012. Tenant activity has seen the likes Budgetary and Reform Plans sent to of Google, Central Bank, BNY Mellon, German parliamentary committees. - the prevalence of very low tenders Capita, Goodbody Stockbrokers all requiring greater analysis and looking for office accommodation. However, seeds of optimism can clarification; be seen and for certain retailers, There has also been some office take expansion plans have and are being - on lower value projects the up outside of the Dublin area such as drawn presently. New entrants have shift towards Most Economically PayPal and Prometrics in Dundalk and come into the market or are looking Advantageous Tenders (MEAT) Hewlett Packard in Galway. at entering the market, most notably as opposed to lowest price Banana Republic have been reported (notwithstanding the benefits of There should be continued office fit-out as targeting a larger store on the same) activity in the coming year largely due top of Grafton Street. New franchise - increased number of challenges to FDI announcements. stores have opened such as Eason’s to the procurement process from opening new franchise stores in unsuccessful tenderers In terms of new build office Mullingar, Balbriggan, Kilkenny and developments there is little or no Carlow and AIM, the franchise operator From the construction industry activity nor is there any foreseen for the of Iceland, opening new store’s in perspective, and the wider economy, it next six months at least. One significant Coolock, Clonmel, Ashbourne and is essential that these obstacles are new build development going ahead Carlow, plus other retailers mainly in minimised to ensure value for money is to the design stage is the high-profile the pharmaceutical, food and discount achieved and most importantly that the Central Bank offices in Dublin. sectors pushing expansion and re- economic impact of this investment location strategies. in terms of jobs and stimulus is Retail maximised. The Irish Retail Market is still very For new entrants and existing retailers, challenging with a number of high- the availability of favourable terms with Commercial profile closures in the first six months regards to rent free periods, period of Although 2011 was another tough year of 2012. lease and rent and/or in certain cases, economically for the property market, the build cost for certain retailers who Sector Developments | 11
  • 15.
    Andrew Thompson, Eoin Dunphy Associate, Residential, Associate, Data Centres Hotels, Sport & Culture prefer to own their own properties are Again, we would anticipate that most The redevelopment of Pairc Ui Chaoimh providing the impetus for potential of the existing overhang of housing is unfortunately the only real significant market expansion. stock will be first in the shopping list project on a national scale to progress. for local authorities, however, some With limited public funding available Residential limited public residential developments (€30 million announced recently for It was another tough year for the will proceed, most notably those in the the “Sports Capital Programme”) residential sector in 2011. In our 2011 regeneration areas such as the north the likelihood of any real significant Review, we projected house completion and south side of Limerick city. projects moving in either the private or units for both the private and public public sector is slim. Some works will sectors to be 10,000 units. Department also commence at the National Sports of Environment, Community & Local Hotels, Sports & Culture Campus at Abbotstown. Government statistics show that Continued pressure in these sectors 10,480 units were completed for both seems to be the common theme in Culture Sector the Private and Public sectors. This is recent years. Whilst there may be some In general, the outlook for the culture a drop of circa. 28% on the 2010 figure small movements in the sports sector, sector in 2012 is for little or no growth. of 14,602 units. Projecting forward for there will be even less in the culture The recent budget shows reductions 2012 we would anticipate between sector and the hotel sector not realising in Government spending in this sector 5,000 and 7,500 units to be completed. any increase in construction activity. with forecasts of circa €44 million to be given to the Department of Arts, Private Sector Hotel Sector Heritage & Gaeltacht, circa €100 Current growth is again being restricted It is worth reminding ourselves that in million going to the Office of Public by weak consumer demand, unstable 2004 there were circa 48,000 bedrooms Works (OPW) and circa €21 million economic status and the uncertainty but by 2008 there were circa 64,000 — going to tourism. Of this combined total regarding the availability of finance a 34% increase in capacity to match a of €165 million it remains to be seen and also future capital values. With the demand that rose by just 12-13%. how much will be released into cultural current supply overhang of available type construction projects. units both completed and near With the existing room supply completed, it is unlikely to be much outstripping demand, there is unlikely movement here although in certain to be any real movement in new areas of the Capital, 3 and 4 bed semi- development in this sector in 2012, and detached houses are in demand. we may in fact witness some partially completed works being demolished. Public Sector One of the eagerly awaited hotels in The net housing need figure at present Dublin that is scheduled for completion shows that 98,318 households were in early next year is The Marker Hotel in need of social housing support at 31st the Dublin Docklands. March 2011. Sports Sector 2011 saw the completion of some interesting projects in this sector, including the iconic UCD Student Learning, Leisure and Sports Complex and the University of Limerick Pavilion and Outdoor Synthetic Pitches project with four full-size, fully floodlit pitches. 12 | Sector Developments
  • 16.
    University College Dublin- Student Learning, Leisure & Sports Facility, Dublin. (image courtesy of Donal Murphy Photography) Infrastructure & Industry data centre industry which has seen Multinational global businesses are The outlook for the civil sector is a phenomenal growth over the past five reviewing strategies and looking for case of contrasting fortunes — on years throughout Ireland and Europe. growth opportunities from varying the one hand roads and rail having The attractive climactic conditions for geographies’ through foreign direct delivered a national motorway optimizing free cooling low seismic investments. The companies that network and significant investment activity, and sufficient Electricity embark on such initiatives face and in the greater Dublin area with the Supply Board (ESB) supply has helped have to deal with many complex and LUAS respectively, would appear to to guarantee this region as one of the local issues on an ongoing basis. be destined for a number of years of main the areas of choice for long-term significantly reduced expenditure. On data centre development. The pharmaceutical sector has shown the other hand, with the advent of the strong investment in Ireland for government policy on the introduction The challenge for data centre 2012, with companies such as Mylan, of water charges and the establishment developers now is how to keep up with Allergan, Amgen and Eli Lilly, to name of Irish Water, significant investment the insatiable customer demand for but a few, that are either currently should be made. We are also likely to space and ensure that your business is or planning to invest heavily in their see strong investment in the energy ahead of the pack in securing those all operations for 2012. AECOM has a sector. important resources required to deliver proven track record in this sector on that demand, whether that be the globally and is expanding its presence In terms of industry, as flagged earlier, expertise or the relevant technologies. in this sector in Ireland as well as 2012 has seen a renewed stream With time as the driver, data centre maintaining its service with current of development from indigenous clients need teams that have the Irish pharmaceutical companies. manufacturers performing strongly in proven expertise and track records the export markets and foreign direct in delivering programs in multiple investment inflows. This of course is locations concurrently using tried and extremely welcome and a sign that our tested low cost models which meet the competitiveness has improved against highest standards. that of some of our competitors. One specific example would be the Sector Developments | 13
  • 17.
    Industry Developments Professional University College Dublin - Student Learning, Leisure & Sports Facility, Dublin. (image courtesy of Donal Murphy Photography)
  • 18.
    One of thefeatures of the industry from a client and consultant perspective in the last couple of years, and likely to continue in the medium term, has been the level of activity aside from actual construction works. Every year sees the list of industry Alternative funding sources for not pay tax within the company and issues dominating the agenda change the Property Industry therefore avoids double taxation. It and evolve as the participants, clients, The primary sources of property must pay out a high proportion (90% consultants and contractors grapple finance are well known and include: in the UK) of its property income to with the challenges of the day. In its shareholders. It works through 2011, we looked at subjects such - Private equity, buying shares in a listed property as The Capital Works Management - Short-term and long-term finance company that has elected for REIT Framework (CWMF), NAMA, Insurance from financial institutions, status and operates in accordance Valuations, etc. - State funding, with REIT regulations. These - Institutional investors, e.g. pension regulations are intended to ensure This year we summarise a cross funds. the company is primarily engaged in section of some of the key industry property investment, rather than in developments that have been the We know that private equity is scarce, development. subject of much discussion and/or debt finance is not available at the market change this year. levels required, state funding is on the The Government has stated that they decline and that institutional investors will introduce the legislation and it are eager but cautious. Where once is expected imminently. There are we could depend on a significant currently over 20 REITs in the UK, development finance package with a including household names from small amount of equity all wrapped Hammerson to Land Securities with together in a suitably “geared” package, a total market cap in excess of €25 we now know that this is no longer an billion. So, how would REITs help in an option. Irish context? Firstly, Nama could avail of it and transfer some of its €31 billion So, is it just a matter of adjusting the loan book into a REIT for investors. ingredients and changing the recipe? NAMA has recently stated that this Do we have the right ingredients, or would be an attractive option for them, indeed, enough of them? Recent new should the legislation be passed. (and improved) recipes being explored recently include: Secondly, the current international investors who are seeking to purchase - Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) assets in the Irish market, could - Equity partnerships/Private Rental avail of a transparent and regulated Sector (PRS) investment vehicle that would be - Project bonds professionally managed and generate a return for their investment. This Real Estate Investment Trust would have the effect of restoring the (REIT) international confidence somewhat A REIT is a company that manages a and provide a tried and trusted conduit portfolio of real estate to earn profits through which they would conduct for shareholders. The main benefit their affairs, without having to be and attraction of a REIT is that it does directly involved in the management Industry Developments | 15
  • 19.
    Paul Mitchell Neil McBeth Director, Head of Office Associate, Due Diligence of the individual assets. As mentioned Pike Architects, incorporates the countries have been looking at ways to earlier, REITs are not permitted to lend example whereby a promoter (private, fund these projects without such credit into development. However, one would local authority, housing association) wrapping. expect that in the context of a strong obtains land and develops a residential covenant, a REIT providing the long- scheme which is then “bought out” In October of last year, the European term finance that a bank or banking by an investor (e.g. pension fund, etc). Union adopted a legislative proposal syndicate would be in a strong position The residents then pay a capital rent launching the pilot phase of the €50 to provide development finance. (cost of scheme plus annual return billion Europe 2020 Project Bond to investor), the capital rent being Initiative. The initiative aims to revive Maybe this Utopian example is not that 10-20% lower than the market rent. and expand capital markets to finance far off when you consider the pent- Any payment above the capital rent is large European infrastructure projects up investor demand, the impending treated as equity, or buying part of your in the fields of transport, energy and shortage of premium office space to home, with full ownership being the information technology. Although the satisfy the incoming multi-nationals, ultimate goal. “project bonds” proposal from the the value in the marketplace and the European Commission is subject to the requirement for the banks to restart Project Bonds approval of European governments, lending into properly geared deals. A project bond is a fund set up to they have indicated that funding would finance a specific project or group be available to upgrade the Dublin- Equity Partnerships/Private of projects. They were typically used Belfast rail link, as well as transport Rental Sector (PRS) to fund large infrastructure projects connections in the ports of Dublin and The basic model for development in and were very common in the United Cork. the residential sector, for the most States and South America. Instead part, is Develop and Dispose, i.e. of using traditional bank lending, the As this is only the pilot phase it is likely the developer purchases the site, project company could raise the senior to take some time before we see a constructs the residential stock and debt through project bond issues. direct impact on project funding in the then sells it to homeowners/private Capital market investors would buy the local market. investors. One of the scenarios where bonds if an investment grade credit an equity partnership comes into play rating, preferably at least A-, could be So, in relation to alternative sources of is when the ultimate purchaser is not achieved. funding it does not appear as though in a position to secure the finance we are on the cusp of a breakthrough to purchase their own property, e.g. Owing to the inherent risk in directly in the near future. Looking at the few potential purchaser can’t obtain a funding construction projects, they transactions that have taken place mortgage. There are various forms of were insured by “monoline” insurers in over the past year, it would appear Equity partnerships, particularly in the a process known as “credit wrapping.” to be more a case of using the best US, whereby the ultimate residents own However, these insurers faltered during ingredients available and sticking to their homes or shares in the overall the downturn due to guaranteeing grandma’s old tried and trusted recipe development. billions of dollars worth of sub-prime than any type of haute-cuisine. debt, and projects have stalled as A proposal being led in the Irish a result. In response to this and context by James Pike, of O’Mahony burgeoning investor coffers, different 16 | Industry Developments
  • 20.
    The National Galleryof Ireland, Dublin. Industry Developments | 17
  • 21.
    National University ofIreland, Galway - New Engineering Building, Galway. (image courtesy of Neil Warner Photography) At the very least, a detailed Work Outs by Asset Managers modeling of all the inputs under The financial crisis in Ireland has left us the various development/work-out analysis of a potentially permutations, including critiquing with a significant number of distressed abnormally low tender will and incomplete construction projects the disposal strategy options. assist in developing an and a long list of developer and effective risk mitigation contractor insolvency casualties. - Unraveling of historical deals and agreements programme. Inevitably, when one goes to open The lack of action on unfinished developments has led to additional up the file on a development that risks for stakeholders that range from has stopped prematurely, there additional costs due to simple neglect will be a myriad of agreements and and lack of upkeep, to health, safety deals. Needless to say it is only and environmental issues. In many those with liabilities attached that cases, the inaction and lack of funding are being brought to your attention, has only served to reduce the value of so a methodical approach and the asset for the long term. The work commercial awareness are key to out path is not for the faint hearted and resolving these. requires intense effort and tenacity from the outset, to ensure a successful - Obtaining certification for disposal outcome. There are many challenges This problem is encountered on for stakeholders, which become most projects and is usually solved apparent from the outset, and these through negotiation with the require experienced professionals to certifiers or, if not possible, using a assist in identifying and navigating new team, exhaustive surveys and a pathway to delivering the project. certificates with certain caveats. Amongst the key challenges are: Activity to date has been predominantly - Self funding mechanisms driven by non-nama institutions that The availability of finance, or lack are intent on exiting the Irish market. of, has been much publicised so it is The recent announcement by NAMA not surprising that this is probably is welcome news and should see a the biggest challenge for funders in sizeable increase in activity in this area. moving a work-out strategy forward. After that it is then important, where Repair & Maintenance possible, that the development With the sharp decline in the level of is phased in such a manner that new build construction, an increasing will generate revenue to fund the amount of the industry focus has remaining phases. turned to the Repairs, Maintenance and Improvement (RMI) sector. The RMI - Getting the disposal strategy right sector has of course also seen a decline Interlinked with the funding in output, but not to the same extent, mechanism is the issue of developing therefore, as a proportion of the overall a sustainable business model. This total it has increased significantly (SCSI will require careful consideration of Construction Industry report estimates the key drivers and then testing it at 41% in 2012 compared to 19% these through thorough financial in 2006 per the DKM Construction 18 | Industry Developments
  • 22.
    Stuart Griffin John O’Regan Associate, Project Director Management Industry Review and Outlook 2010 actively managing their real estate and European Union (EU) procurement Report). we are working with others to develop guidelines and directives. These asset registers, including schedules of must be scrupulously followed by the Of course, the need for repairs and condition and planned and preventative client or there is a risk of a successful maintenance is ever present. Real maintenance schedules. challenge to the process which would estate that is not maintained will start result in the outcome of the process to diminish over time in functionality The improvements segment of RMI has being overturned or damages becoming and become unfit for purpose. As also been experiencing greater activity due to the injured party. soon as the client takes possession than new build, as organisations have of the building the wear and tear of been downsizing or re-organising to There is detailed guidance available on the building and its fabric starts. Once sub-let space. In some cases where in the steps to be taken in assessing ALT’s one system or element fails, there is a different climate clients may have and these involve seeking clarifications generally a consequential knock-on chosen the new build option, they are and additional information from the effect on other elements and systems. now making the decision to refurbish tenderer in question. By demanding For example, if a hole appears in a roof their existing space. this level of information and employing covering, there will inevitably be water expert analysis from the quantity damage on the internal fabric of the Abnormally Low Tenders (ALT’s) surveyor and design team, the client building and services. Should the plant Have you ever received (or submitted) can obtain a very clear picture of how and equipment and services start to an abnormally low tender for the bid was prepared and how robust fail due to water ingress, the knock-on consultancy services or construction the price is. effect of down time from staff and works? users not being able to use the building Davis Langdon’s experience of public will be significant. Have you ever rejected a tender sector tendering is that it is rare for a because it was abnormally low? tender to be rejected as abnormally low Frequent and regular repair and I think the answer to the first question but that it is critical that the detailed maintenance is the most cost effective above would be a resounding yes assessment is carried out. Often the way for providing and retaining a good from just about everybody involved investigation results in the bidder functional building. The inspection of in tendering in the Irish construction realising the challenges that their existing buildings is key to effective market. tender presents and withdrawing their asset maintenance and management. tender. In other cases, the investigation Identifying and analysing the problems, The answer to the second question uncovers issues that can be resolved assessing the risks, and establishing a is harder and the answer may well prior to contract and hence avoiding strategic way forward for maintaining depend on whether you are operating in potential claims. At the very least, and repairing the building is key. Most the private or the public sector. a detailed analysis of a potentially repair and maintenance of buildings It is not uncommon for the lowest bid abnormally low tender will assist in is reactive, where designers and sub to be passed over in the commercial developing an effective risk mitigation contractors work to address issues world. Are these decisions always programme. Typical mitigation as they arise, and clients spend little fair — maybe not — but in the private measures include increased provision time assessing, scheduling, planning sector, as long as the tender documents of onsite cost, programme, quality and budgeting to prevent such issues are structured right, it is the clients and safety monitoring, increased arising. Resources allocated to call. The disappointed contractor or contingency provision, increased evaluating and putting plans in place to consultant has no come back. focus on project administration and repair and maintain real estate How about the public sector? structured project management anticipating and planning to address The position here is much more processes involving principals of all the issues before they become problems, complicated. There are defined bodies involved. is money well spent. Some clients are processes both in national and Industry Developments | 19
  • 23.
    Leaders Business Intelligence 7 & 8St James’ Square, London.
  • 24.
    We believe itis important to listen to and understand the issues from the key leaders in the industry Davis Langdon, an AECOM company, Pat Gunne, has extensive knowledge and Managing Director, Green Property experience across the full spectrum of service lines and sectors in the Commercial: industry. However, notwithstanding Q Stamp duty reduction; Upward this track record, we firmly believe it is Only Rent Review (UORR) clarity, etc. key to any appointment, big or small, Positive changes but what is the to first listen to and understand our effect? client’s requirements. A The changes you mention are significant to the extent that In the same way, when we are writing investment in real estate had our annual review, we believe it is become a binary issue. Once important to listen to and understand the UORR came on the table for the issues concerning key leaders discussion, and it was surrounded by in the industry and in the current uncertainty, the market shut down so climate people who are at the coalface it has been significant to the extent in terms of delivering or facilitating that Ireland is investable again, growth in key sectors in the coming Finance: however, in terms of activity, the years. Q Debt financing, is there any out market hasn’t started trading in any there? meaningful way. We thought you would like to listen A The Irish banking system is entirely too! dominated by NAMA. Bank of Ireland To re-ignite the market, you need (BOI) and Allied Irish Bank (AIB) external capital investment because So we have summarised in question have both said they want to lend the domestic equity has been and answer format, interviews we to the sector, however, both banks effectively wiped out due to the conducted with a number of thought are trying to reduce their overall extent of the collapse in the market. leaders on what they see as the exposure to commercial property. Net challenges, solutions, and more lending to real estate in the United Q Poor credit ratings, second rate importantly, the likely trends in their Kingdom (UK) is negative, in Ireland investments — is it a case of no sectors in the short to medium term. it is that multiplied by 10 and we thanks from investors? will be in that net negative lending A Yes and no. The funds will want environment for the next three to five to buy shiny buildings, with shiny years. tenants, in grade A locations. There is only a certain amount of that and it Q Government — if you could ask for represents a tiny part of the market. one wish? A The government can only control the On the other hand, the reason Irish part of the solution; they cannot Ireland is seen as attractive for US control what happens with foreign private equity is that it is seen as “in owned banks, all of which are in distress.” Up to now the pricing gap retreat. has been too wide, but given that we are now in year five of the meltdown, The biggest thing they could do I suspect the level of market activity would be to restructure their deal will slowly begin to improve. with the troika on their own capital Business Intelligence | 21
  • 25.
    JFK Primary School,Limerick. “ The Government can only structure and accept that a good accepting that they are a long-term chunk of NAMA is a long-term mortgage bank. control the Irish part of the mortgage bank as opposed to a solution; they cannot control grind down agency as it is a constant They also could start selling Irish real what happens with foreign overhang on the market. estate in lot sizes and packaged in a owned banks, all of which are format which meets the investment Q Once the debt and liquidity return, appetite of the major international in retreat.” we will have a sharp upturn in funds. They might not like the price, property in terms of prices. True or however, we either accept that the False? capital is external private equity or A To try doing the crystal ball not. The overriding objective of NAMA gazing when there is so much macro must be to re-create a market and uncertainty is of limited value. At to do so they need to sell. Ultimately the moment we are taking the view the market determines the pricing that the macro is a pronlonged and not the November 2009 entry workout at the European and indeed point which Nama had no control global level, but particularly around over when it was being cast in stone. the euro area. Having said that, if They’re trying their best, but it’s a you buy central Dublin real estate very challenging environment. at below reinstatement cost, with income to get you through however Q Any lessons to be learned from our many years, and with arbitrage on a nearest neighbours? debt package, then that probably is a A Lloyds for me have been very good risk adjusted investment. Who refreshing in their approach, knows whether we are right or wrong, obviously they have taken a lot that is the view we are taking, and of pain but they are dealing with the majority of our investment focus the resolution in a very pragmatic remains in the UK. way. Typically they are avoiding, where possible, in dealing with it Distressed Property: through the courts, and instead are Q What would you change/enhance sitting down and having sensible about the way Nama operates discussions with borrowers in an today? attempt to resolve their problems A The changes at the top have been through a consensual process. very positive and they have done well in the UK, their challenge is around the Irish market. They are trying to be part of the solution in terms of the lack of liquidity by saying that they are willing to put in debt on deals where they are selling which is crucial and one step away from 22 | Business Intelligence
  • 26.
    “ This isthe fourth recession that I have experienced in business. So I would say nothing will change, it will just be different the next time. Lessons do not get remembered for longer than ten years.” Bill Nowlan, Funding Managing Director, W.K. Nowlan & Q When do you foresee the funding Associates impasse resolving itself and what its likely effect will be on property Q What would you see as the key values? lessons from the financial crisis A I believe that the money will be found that should be learned by the because we just cannot, at a political property industry? level, continue to keep grinding A Property booms and busts are facts people down. But I do think that you of life, you can go back generations, have to have the controls in place, go back millennia — Cicero put his so I would think that after this treaty pension fund into property. is in place. Once funding returns, I believe that house prices in Dublin This is the fourth recession that I will spike very rapidly. If you ask me have experienced in business. So where I would actually speculate I would say nothing will change, it my money, now is to buy land in Dun will just be different the next time. Laoghaire or on the Luas line, I think Lessons do not get remembered for that will go like a train. longer than 10 years. NAMA Q In terms of the residential property Q Have you a sense of what the market, what do you see as the fate NAMA strategy is towards managing for the sea of Ghost Estates? their Irish portfolio? A You have to slice and dice this, first A I think what you are beginning to see of all there are ghost estates that happening is that they are dribbling are: property out through the receivers to - well built houses but for which see what will happen. there is no demand because of Q Is the mini boom in Foreign Direct their location and then there Investment (FDI) a saviour for our You can’t push a piece of string and is, ailing property industry? I think NAMA have a problem in that - poor quality accommodation A Saviour is probably not the right they have this huge need to actually in inappropriate locations. word; it is probably going to be get property out there but it has to an important factor. One of the come on the demand side. At the In the first case, the price will fall things we need to do is put in the moment, they are concentrating their to a point at which they will be infrastructure to encourage FDI — I efforts in the UK and overseas and bought, whereas in the second case think this is where our planning the big question is should they just demolition will be the only option in a comes in. drop prices down? lot of instances. So, in short, you have to look at each situation and decide whether this is for holiday homes, the JCB or time. Business Intelligence | 23
  • 27.
    For example, ifyou were to set up the equivalent of an IFSC for the IT industry, you are creating an environment making it easy and competitive to come in and set up business. Maurice Mortell, Q What measures should the Managing Director Ireland, Telecity government implement/maintain Group to assist with this growth? A It is not a labour intensive market; Q Do you envisage data centre if you are going to really look to activity continue at the current pace sustain the industry you need to of growth for the foreseeable future? look at the types of clients that are A The industry has been through attracted to the facilities and how a number of cycles; my view would you best cater for their requirements. be we are on the cusp of a new wave So, for example, if you were to set of development, coming into Dublin up the equivalent of an IFSC for specifically. If you have a league table the IT industry, you are creating an for locations in Europe you would environment making it easy and have: competitive to come in and set up business. - Amsterdam - Paris Q With the sale of state assets on - London the table, have you particular fears - Frankfort for your sector? - Dublin A The big issue would be the distribution grid, I would be very Unfortunately, nationally the reticent to think that they would infrastructure isn’t as good on the privatise that — we need to hold on diversity of Telecoms side. The key to it and keep control of it. One of the selection criteria would be: very big positives is the robustness of the grid. It is a big factor, we are Q We have endured European - Power not that competitive in the price of pressure to broaden and expand - Telecoms infrastructure energy supply. our tax base; how critical is it to (trans-atlantic international the data centre sector that it is connectivity tier 1 routing) Q In terms of capital investment, maintained? - Mature supplier market would you consider Ireland a good A From our perspective it is - Project management companies value for money location? absolutely critical — 65%- - Distribution grid/resilient A From what I have seen we tend 70% would be overseas clients - Number of players in the market to use the same people in the (predominantly US) who would not - Energy efficiency 50% of same locations to get the benefit have a set up and are just availing the year temperature below 6 of it — that doesn’t always work of the taxation regime for their degrees to your advantage — but Ireland transaction based business, but - Self fulfilling prophesy — critical is competitive enough, across the politically it would appear to be mass group the cost/square foot it is in a no-go area so I would not see it and around the mark. happening. 24 | Business Intelligence
  • 28.
    Donal Murphy, months to get through the initial to procure via PPP and stick to them Director of Project Finance, stages and the fact that there are rather than spreading resources too Bank of Ireland none (bar Schools Bundle 4) at that thinly over a whole range of projects.” early stage, there may well be a In other words, use PPP’s for specific Q Have the Budget 2012 Public- quiet period in terms of contracts sectors in specific circumstances Private Partnership (PPP) being signed during 2013/2014. and then look to the market to postponement announcements However, recent positive engagement deliver on these. By keeping the damaged the reputation of Ireland between ministers and the European projects simple, straight forward as a market for investors/project Investment Bank (EIB), and a sense with a reasonable risk allocation sponsors? of positivity around their role and the and consistent with previous A On the positive side, the two roads use of privately financed projects transactions, the chances of schemes, the N7/N11 & the N17/ to provide economic stimulus, may maintaining project sponsor interest N18, and the schools PPP bundle result in a renewed impetus for the is greatly increased. schemes (bundle three contract use of the PPP model. signing due second half of 2012 and Q There have been some PPP projects bundle four likely in 2013/14) are In terms of funding, at the peak of which have failed for one reason or receiving continued support. the Irish market bank groups were another; are there any lessons that generally dominated by international could be learned from these? The two areas negatively affected banks with the Irish banks playing A Projects such as the co-located by the recent announcements their role; in recent years obviously hospitals and social housing were were the third level bundles and things have changed in so far as hybrid PPP models, taking a range of major flagship public transport Bank of Ireland is effectively the only market related risks without some projects. The third level programme Irish bank operating in the space of the traditional attributes of a was probably the real surprise. It and the international banks (who previously banked projects. was disappointing from a market were typically not based in Ireland) perspective as this programme was have withdrawn from the Irish If there is a lesson to be learned at a well advanced stage in terms market. The role of the EIB will be (for the PPP market generally) from of procurement. There is no doubt absolutely critical because they can these projects it is that there needs that the cancellation of an entire significantly close the funding gap to be early and regular consultation programme has the potential to be on some of these projects (up to 50% between the procuring authorities damaging to sponsor interest for funding) but to be blunt for a long- and the funding market. Dialogue future projects. term sustainable market there needs and market soundings prior to to be more than one domestic bank proceeding with a procurement Q What do you see as the outlook for and more international banks active process present the best opportunity PPP projects in Ireland in the short in the market. of structuring a project with the to medium term? best possible chance of attracting A The overriding constraint will be the Q If you had to give one piece of interest and succeeding. Once you capital spend and what will be advice to the government in respect embark on a procurement process allowed under the programme with of maintaining a sustainable PPP it can be difficult to subsequently the troika. Assuming the current market in Ireland, what would it be? make any meangingful changes to a programme can be delivered, A The key message would be to “pick project structure. given that projects can take 12-24 the specific programmes you wish Business Intelligence | 25
  • 29.
    The Shard, London. (imagecourtesy of Sellar Property Group) Team Geographies
  • 30.
    Notwithstanding these challenges,the regions are seeing pockets of revival in different sectors and we identify a number below which have been particularly active. If we were ever in any doubt that we Island of Ireland are a reduced number of experienced operated in a global market we only contractors, difficulty in getting have to look back over the last few In larger countries, significant regional specialist sub-contractors, continued years at a catalogue of international variations in output can and do prevail presence of abnormally low tenders events which have impacted on world from time to time, depending on and delays in obtaining performance markets and in turn filtered their way differing economic cycles and regional bonds to name a few. through to effecting most economies. needs that exist. In Ireland however, In particular, open economies such as regional variations in output tend to be Notwithstanding these challenges, the our own which are highly dependent more subtle. regions are seeing pockets of revival on international trade. Unfortunately in different sectors and we identify for Ireland we had our own domestic This is largely due to what some might a number below which have been financial and banking collapse which consider a good open democracy or particularly active. decimated any defences we may have others might call parish pump politics. had to such international events. So, typically output has tended to Education correlate with the demographic In response to increased demand there With this in mind, it is important to distribution, and by implication votes. has been a sustained primary and look at the recent industry trends There is a practical purpose to this secondary school building programme. domestically and internationally where also of course in that public services It has also been signalled that in Irish contractors and consultancy will be needed to match the demand the near future the department will practices are seeing increasing of the demographic distribution, so be devolving delivery of parts of the business for their services. for these reasons when we are looking programme to other agencies such as . at potential trends into the medium the Vocational Educational Committees term it is always useful to study (VEC’s) and possibly the National demographic movements. Development Finance Agency (NDFA). In Percentage population change 2006-2011 (Census 2011 Eds, Central Statistics Office) addition, new design team procedures April 2011 saw the national census to reflect this devolved approach will carried out and we have recently also be implemented. seen the first detailed set of results from it published. The map on the In contrast the government’s capital left illustrates the population change programme has sharply cut back movements since census 2006 and on capital spending at third level reflects the increasing urbanisation institutions. Notwithstanding these of the population and the gradual departmental cuts the universities have depopulation of the more remote rural been very proactive in identifying other locations. sources of income and the merger/ clustering of institutes of technology In the short term, all the regions are to form technological universities will experiencing negative trends in terms necessitate investment. of demand, such as a reduction in public spending and a lack of finance Private Healthcare and business confidence for private The economic crisis has seen clients to invest. On the supply side, significant numbers not renewing their the issues prevalent in the market private health insurance. However, Geographies | 27
  • 31.
    Geographies there still remainsa sizeable proportion On a positive note, a new landmark significantly and provides high of the population which continue to building, a central headquarters office performance training facilities for elite pay for same. Thus whilst the downturn for the Munster GAA, is well underway athletes. has severely impacted potential new with completion due in the summer of entrants to the market, existing players 2012. In the private sector the Industrial/ such as the Bon Secours and Galway pharma/food/technology sectors have Clinic continue to invest. Education and healthcare projects been the stand out performers with seem to be the only real public sector significant investments being made in Industrial projects of note that are getting the likes of Boston Scientific, Ely Lily As noted earlier in the review there underway in the region. Probably the and Pepsi. Also, Leibherr have made a has been a significant increase most significant public building to be significant investment to their facility in (predominantly FDI driven) in constructed at present in the region Killarney. investment in the industrial would be the new critical care unit in manufacturing sector and this has been the midwest regional hospital campus With the success of the O2 and well distributed across the regions, in Dooradoyle, Limerick. This new €20- Grand Canal (now Bord Gais Energy) albeit in the key cities. If we look at the million facility will bring much needed, Theatre in Dublin, there is an appetite first quarter announcements from the state of the art, healthcare facilities to for an arena in Cork. Badly needed IDA (summarised below) we can see an the region. The Limerick Regeneration many would argue, currently a race indication of the range of sectors and Agency (LRA) is also progressing a between the BAM/Heineken Brewery regional spread being achieved. number of projects with tenders just Quarter scheme and the O’Callaghan back on the “Southill Elderly Persons Properties scheme, both of which now Limerick, Mid-West Region. Accommodation.” have planning permission. In private Small scale refurbishments and fit outs healthcare, the Bon Secours Northern have taken the place of the previous Cork & Southern Region Block project is due to go to site in early large-scale private commercial and Cork and the region generally has got summer, which will provide a much industrial developments. Commercial at least its fair share of the school needed boost to construction activity property owners are having to work building programme with a number in the city. On the sporting front the harder to find alternative uses for their of new schools, and large stand alone Gaelic Athletic Association (GAA) are properties in order have any chance of extensions to existing schools, getting making a significant investment in securing lettings, and in a lot of cases the go-ahead. University College re-developing Pairc Ui Chaoimh, with are succeeding which is encouraging. Cork (UCC) have completed their new design commenced on a new covered extension to the Mardyke Arena which stand and upgrading of the terraces. enhances the offering Table 3: IDA Ireland Announcements Jan - Apr 2012 Region Announcements Jobs IT Financial Pharma Other Greater Dublin Area 9 1,280 1 8 South 4 230 1 1 2 Mid-West 2 32 2 Connaught & North West 3 525 1 2 North East 1 1,000 1 28 | Geographies
  • 32.
    National University ofIreland, Galway - National University of Ireland, Galway - New Engineering Building, Galway. New Engineering Building, Galway. (image courtesy of Neil Warner Photography) (image courtesy of Neil Warner Photography) In larger countries, significant regional variations in output can and do prevail from time to time depending on differing economic cycles and regional needs that exist. In Ireland however, regional variations in output tend to be more subtle. University of Limerick - Pavilion, Limerick. (image courtesy of Donal Murphy Photography) Geographies | 29
  • 33.
    Geographies Figure 5: NorthernIreland Construction Galway & Western Region indicated in the pie chart on the left. Industry Output 2011 In common with the rest of the country 2011 saw the progress of a number there is a significant overhang of of significant projects, including the residential accommodation in the Titanic Belfast. 2011 and 2012 will see regions’ provincial towns. However, the appointment of design teams for a 19% Galway city and suburbs does not number of long awaited public sector have an overhang to the same extent health and sports facilities which are and in some areas the next couple of now progressing positively. years could see a shortage of the right 23% properties in the right locations. Whilst the Northern Ireland property 20% market did not see the same extreme In terms of construction activity in the of the southern property bubble, it public sector, education and health does still have its share of distressed continue to be the primary sources. developments. The path of the National University of Ireland (NUI) construction industry will continue Galway continuing on from completion to depend on the public sector 38% of their New Engineering Building in capital programme until the local and 2011 with their research bundle of international economic environment three buildings currently on site. It shows signs of recovery. Residential includes a Clinical & Translational Research Facility on the University Infrastructure Hospital Galway campus in conjunction Britain Public Building with the Health Service Executive (HSE) Private Building and the Health Research Board (HRB). 2011 ended immersed in uncertainty. Whilst the private sector continues to The Eurozone had lurched from crisis struggle and there remains a number to crisis unresolved throughout the of large development sites vacant in autumn and into winter. Galway city, similar to other regions private healthcare (Galway Clinic Although statistics show that continued expansion of facilities) and construction activity picked up in some foreign direct investment (FDI) have areas, it was not enough to cause any proven to buck the trend. In addition to rebound in construction prices after the traditionally strong medical devices the 18% fall that had occurred since sector there have been investments in early 2008. Overall, at the end of 2011, new areas such as gaming with Bioware prices were on average 1% lower than recently establishing a customer at the end of 2010. There remains a services centre in Galway. huge amount of surplus capacity in the industry which is why prices have not Northern Ireland moved upwards even when workload The output of the Northern Ireland picked up last year. construction industry was £2.3 billion in 2011. It is likely that this Low or even cut-throat pricing means will, similar to the Republic of Ireland, that claims are inevitably more to the suffer a decline in 2012. The industry fore. Some contractors are adopting breakdown for 2011 by sector is claims principles on all their contracts 30 | Geographies
  • 34.
    Titanic Belfast (imagecourtesy of Christopher Heaney Photography) Geographies | 31
  • 35.
    Qatar Science &Technology Park, Qatar. There remains a strong but many are more discerning, trying down a further 1-2%. In 2013 no to maintain good relationships with significant increase in activity is pipeline of private clients who may have more work to forecast but contractors will try to commercial work in London offer in the future. Clients and their improve margin wherever they can. (but not elsewhere), consultants and main contractors programmed to start are now even more concerned over Construction output and new orders the stability of the supply chain with Construction output as measured by during 2012 but developers increasing numbers of subcontractors the Office for National Statistics (ONS) are once again becoming going into administration. The number held up unexpectedly well in 2011. nervous and perhaps of companies going to the wall peaked Output in the public non-housing holding back from actually in 2009 but latest figures show the sector declined by 5% in 2011 but trend increasing again. infrastructure grew by almost 11% and pressing the start button private housing by 8%. There remains a strong pipeline of private commercial work in London (but The decline in new orders in 2011 will not elsewhere), programmed to start lead inevitably to a reduction of work during 2012 but developers are once on site this year and next. Experian again becoming nervous and perhaps are predicting a 1.3% increase in holding back from actually pressing 2013 while the Construction Products the start button. Occupier demand Association (CPA) do not see an is falling. Banks are embarking on a increase before 2014. fresh round of redundancies. Rental expectations have fallen. John Lewis and Sainsbury reported a bumper Global Markets Christmas sales period but most other retailers are finding life hard. Construction Market Overview 2011 was yet another difficult year for The housing market often leads the construction globally. Construction way in the fortunes of the construction spending growth has stalled and industry, whether trending up or 2011 was the fourth consecutive down. House prices in 2011 ended year with little or no growth. Overall, slightly down and there may not be world construction spending grew a consensus for the trend in 2012 by just 0.5% to $4.6 trillion and is but many believe 2012 will be worse still below the levels achieved in than 2011. So infrastructure may be 2007. However, on a positive note, the only show in town that is really 2011 saw the first increases in world looking up but will only be of benefit to construction spending since the start specialist contractors and those that of the recession. Although 2012 is have consciously tried to reposition looking slightly more pessimistic as the themselves over the last few years in developing economies responsible for anticipation. much of the growth in the recent past are starting to slow as their developed In London construction prices will country export markets continue to probably continue to flat-line but decline. elsewhere prices may well be forced 32 | Geographies
  • 36.
    For the secondyear running China was the largest construction market in 2011, and is forecast to be the fastest growing market through 2012. On a regional basis, all regions apart Figure 6: US$B from Western Europe and North America saw positive construction 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 spending growth, although at reduced China levels to those of the recent past. Asia and Latin America were the fastest USA growing regions through 2011 by a wide Japan margin. Germany Brazil For the second year running China India was the largest construction market in France 2011, and is forecast to be the fastest UK growing market through 2012 (Figures Italy 6 & 7). Korea There were some large regional Mexico differences throughout the year. Australia Construction spending in Western Spain Europe was the most affected with Others a contraction of 3%, with the most significant falls occurring in Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece and Spain. The continuing sovereign debt problems 8 and Eurozone crises suggest that Western Europe will continue to 6 struggle in the near term. Regional Overview 4 Our review of world construction in 2011 and outlook for 2012 and beyond 2 concentrates on the six main trading blocks, namely: Africa; the Americas; 0 Asia Pacific, Australasia; Europe and the Middle East. -2 Asia Pacific Asian markets are expected to continue -4 to exhibit robust construction spending growth through 2012. China (+9%) is -6 the standout followed by India (+8%), Indonesia (+8%) and Vietnam (+7%). All -8 sectors are likely to exhibit significant USA China Japan Germany Italy France Brazil UK Korea India Mexico Spain Austrailia Others growth, largely led by non-residential construction. Figure 7: Percentage Change Geographies | 33
  • 37.
    Olympic Stadium, London. (imagecourtesy of Populous)
  • 38.
    David Crosthwaite Davis Langdon,London, an AECOM company. China not only exhibits significant postponement/cancellation of many Middle East levels of growth but is also the largest planned infrastructure projects. In the Middle East, moderate market in the world. China accounted construction spending growth (+4.2%) for 41% of the Asia Pacific total in 2011 The fastest growing countries in is expected through 2012. Much of (almost twice the size of the Japanese Western Europe through 2012 are the growth will be led by increases in construction market). Construction expected to be Germany (+1.8%) and infrastructure construction spending, spending in China is shifting from the UK (+1.6%). Ireland, Spain, Portugal, in particular energy infrastructure. the coastal cities to the interior and Italy and Greece are likely to experience western provinces. Through to 2015, continuing declines in construction Saudi Arabia, the largest market in the infrastructure spending is expected spending through to 2015, with little region, is also expected to lead much to dominate China’s construction optimism about growth later in the of the growth in the region (+5% pa) spending. decade. Indeed through to 2015, their through to 2015. Followed by a return share of the Western European market to growth in the UAE (+4% pa) much of India on the other hand only accounted is expected to decline significantly (by which will be led by Abu Dhabi rather for just over 10% of the total Asia as much as 10%) while growth in the than Dubai which remains subdued and Pacific market. Given the current remaining countries remains largely is largely expected to remain that way constraints on public finances India is stagnant. It is likely that it will be 2020 through the forecast period. seeking increases in private funding before the market in Western Europe solutions in the provision of much of returns to output levels last seen in Preparation for the FIFA World Cup the new infrastructure needed.Japan 2007. 2022 and upgrading of associated is expected to see sizable increases infrastructure is expected to make in construction spending through In Eastern Europe there is a more construction spending growth in Qatar to 2015 as the earthquake/tsunami positive picture of construction amongst the fastest in the world re-construction effort gathers pace. spending growth through to 2015. throughout the next decade. However, the re-construction is only However, it should be noted that these expected to provide a short-term spike markets are significantly smaller Africa in construction activity which is likely to in terms of volume than those in Following the recent turmoil in much return to trend later in the decade. Western Europe. The fastest growing of North Africa construction spending sector is forecast to be the non- remains constrained, although Europe residential sector closely followed by there are expected to be significant Sovereign debt crises and the infrastructure. opportunities going forward. In uncertainty in the Eurozone are particular, re-construction in Libya and continuing to constrain construction The fastest growing countries in infrastructure upgrades in Egypt are spending growth in many Western Eastern Europe through 2012 are likely to act as a stimulus for the region European markets. Only the expected to be Poland (+9.1%) followed through to 2015. However, much of this Scandinavian counties are likely to by Russia (+6.5%) and Turkey (+5.5%), has yet to materialise given the ongoing be largely immune from the impacts. all with growth levels significantly uncertainty in the region. Infrastructure construction is expected above the average for the region as a to see declines through to 2015 whole. In the rest of the region there is a with only limited growth forecast in mixed picture emerging, with some both non-residential and residential areas of strong growth particularly construction spending. Austerity Nigeria (+8%) with continuing declines measures in many Western European in others, particularly South Africa. countries have focused on the Infrastructure construction is forecast Geographies | 35
  • 39.
    Figure 8 :Global Construction Spending to be the fastest growing sector of Australasia construction output through to 2015. Construction spending in Australia is expected to grow by close to 5% in The Americas 2012, boosted by the global demand 31% Construction spending continues to for natural resources. Similarly, be constrained in the US, largely as construction spending in New Zealand 34% a result of the housing crisis and the is forecast to rise as earthquake re- impending election. The construction construction moves forward through to market in the US is expected to remain 2015. stagnant through 2012, with little or no growth forecast, much like construction General Outlook spending in Western Europe. Some In the short term there is expected 1% growth is expected in Canada and to be a degree of stagnation in global 2% Mexico although the problems in the construction spending through 25% 3% US are expected to constrain growth in 2012, with more sustained growth 4% both markets through to 2015. not expected until 2015 onwards. Developing countries are expected 2020 In contrast much of South America is to lead any growth through 2012. expected to see significant growth in The strongest construction spending 46% construction spending through 2012. In growth will again be in China, followed particular the larger markets of Brazil, by India and Indonesia. Argentina and Chile are forecast to see 17% construction growth of over 5% through Going forward the outlook for global 2012. Indeed, Brazil and Panama are construction is likely to be dictated likely to have construction spending by development status. Generally, the 24% growth of over 10% pa through to share of global construction spending 2015, significantly above the average continues to shift from developed for the region as a whole. Much of the country markets to developing country growth in South America will be led by markets (Figure 8). In particular, the increases in infrastructure spending Asian market has increased from a (particularly energy and transportation) share of 31% in 2005 to a forecast closely followed by spending on non- share of 46% by 2020. This shift is 5% residential structures. largely at the expense of decline in 4% 2% 2% the Western Europe market which has In Brazil, preparations for the 2014 FIFA shrunk from a share of 35% in 2005 to a Asia Latin America World Cup and the 2016 Rio Olympics forecast share of 24% in 2020. Western Europe Middle east are well advanced and increases in North America Africa construction spending are largely being Eastern Europe led by infrastructure upgrades. David Crosthwaite Davis Langdon, an AECOM company 36 | Geographies
  • 40.
    2016 Olympic Park,Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. (image courtesy of AECOM)
  • 41.
    University of Limerick- Pavilion, Limerick. (image courtesy of Donal Murphy Photography) Knowledge Technical Data
  • 42.
    Indicative Building Costs € per square metre The figures quoted are for mid-range buildings in the Dublin area at January Healthcare 2012 prices. Due to the volatile nature Hospitals 1,600 2,500 of the current market and the low Primary Care Centres 1,400 1,800 tenders being received, it is possible Nursing Homes 1,400 2,000 that tenders will be received outside Education of these ranges. Professional advice Primary Schools 930 1,100 should be sought for specific projects. Secondary Schools 930 1,100 Third Level 1,350 2,500 The Davis Langdon indicative building Commercial costs should NOT be used for fire Offices - Shell & Core (Landlord Fit-Out) 1,300 1,900 insurance valuations or for residual - Owner Occupied 1,500 2,400 valuations for funding purposes. Offices Fit-Out - Basic 300 450 - Medium 450 700 If you require a valuation for fire - High 700 1,050 insurance or more specific information, - Top 1,050 1,800 please contact Davis Langdon. Shopping Centres - Shell & Core 600 1,000 - Mall 1,300 2,400 When considering building costs you - Fit-Out 850 1,400 should check if costs include: Residential Apartments 1,200 1,600 - Value Added Tax Apartments (12-16 storey) 1,500 1,950 - Professional Fees Social Housing 850 1,250 - Inflation Sheltered Housing 950 1,450 - Fit-Out Housing (Suburban Housing) 800 1,000 - Landlord Fit Out/Landlord Credits Industrial - Furniture Warehouse/Factory Shell 550 650 - Planning Levies, Fees & Charges Factory (Basic) 650 900 - Demolition High Spec Factory - Shell & Core 850 1,200 - Abnormal Ground Conditions - Fit-Out 650 1,100 Leisure Cinema 1,500 2,100 Hotels - 3/4 star 1,300 1,950 - 5 star 1,950 3,000 Swimming pool (60% wet & 40% dry) 1,600 2,100 Car Parks Surface (including drainage & lighting) 100 210 Multi-Storey 350 600 Single Basement 500 800 Double Basement 700 1,100 Public Buildings Fire Station 1350 1650 Prison 1850 2500 Courthouse 1650 2050 Technical Data | 39
  • 43.
    Key Performance BondActions Unfortunately, the focus on performance bonds has increased dramatically in recent years due to market forces. Broadly, a performance bond is a “contract of guarantee” whereby one party (the guarantor (the bond provider) undertakes to pay damages to a second party (the employer) arising from breach of contract by a third party (the contractor). Set out below is a checklist of actions in acquiring and calling in a bond. Summary of Key Performance Bond Actions Ref Description Checklist Ref Description Checklist 1.0 Pre-Tender 5.0 Typical Heads of Claim for Submission to Bond co. 1.1 Agree bond parameters with client 5.1 Procurement & Construction (value, duration etc) 5.11 Cost of re-tendering process 1.2 Seek bond co. confirmation of availability at 5.12 Any premium arising from cost of pre-qualification stage replacement contractor 1.3 Issue bond wording with tender documents 5.13 Other 2.0 Post-Tender/Pre-Contract 5.2 Professional Fees 2.1 Request bond to be provided as part of letter of intent 5.21 Design team 2.2 Respond to bond co. questionnaire 5.22 Legal fees 5.23 Other 3.0 Post-Contract 5.3 Client Direct Costs 3.1 Notify Bond co. immediately upon a default event 5.31 Client direct staff costs (typically insolvency) 5.32 Any additional financing costs 3.2 Actively engage with bond co. 5.33 Insurance costs post default 3.3 Invite bond co. to visit site to make their own cost 5.34 Other assessment of works 3.4 Advise bond co. of your proposed process for 5.4 Security/Health & Safety appointment of replacement 5.41 Any security required post-default 3.5 Agree protocols for managing tender process 5.42 Any emergency H&S works carried out post default 3.6 Other 5.43 Other 4.0 Submission of Claim 4.1 Notify bond co. immediately upon a default event Please contact Anthony McDermott for further information (typically insolvency) anthony.mcdermott@davislangdon.com 4.2 Actively engage with bond co. 4.3 Submit termination valuation 4.4 Invite bond co. to visit site to make their own cost assessment of Works 4.5 Submit claim on completion (see sample heads of claim opposite) Introduction 40 | Technical Data
  • 44.
    Project Planning Checklist Checklistsare perhaps the simplest and most productive An experienced project manager will assist you through these means of building consistency in work practices. In this stages, with development of a project management plan project planning checklist, we summarise a high-level twelve capturing planning strategy, execution strategy and project point checklist of important project planning steps to help management techniques that address items 1 to 9 below thus you pave the way to successful project management. creating a platform for successful project management and delivery. Ref Description Checklist Ref Description Checklist 1. Agree justification for the project, including 7. Establish and implement change control appraisal of business case, commercial viability procedure and technical feasibility checks 8. Plan for risk management and value management 2. Establish project governance at the onset such at appropriate stages/gateways as compliance with EU regulations, national or corporate guidelines/governance relating to 9. Identify and procure the disciplines and procurement or contractual requirement specialisations that will be required on the project including consultants (design, quantity 3. Identify all stakeholder and instil a management surveying, legal, planning advisors, etc.), plan to identify and manage their requirements works contractors of suppliers and concerns throughout the project lifecycle 10. Obtain sign-off on the definitive brief from the 4. Define and agreed project organisational relevant stakeholders and acceptance from the structure, communication and reporting strategy, appointed consultant to deliver same roles and responsibilities 11. Ensure an experienced project manager/project 5. Generate definitive brief that defines the scope, coordinator is acting on your behalf during the overall programme, available budget, quality delivery stage to ensure compliance with project standards, project deliverables, success criteria objectives and manage day-to-day issues that and mission statement/project charter may arise 6. Establish appropriate ‘gateways’ for design to 12. Undertake a project review at completion to pass to confirm compliance with definitive brief establish lessons learned, etc. requirements Technical Data | 41
  • 45.
    University of Limerick- Pavilion, Limerick. (image courtesy of Donal Murphy Photography) 42 | Technical Data
  • 46.
    Development Budget Checklist Itis critical in establishing a development budget to adopt a methodical approach and to ensure those conducting the exercise have the experience and database of relevant information to establish a realistic budget. A sample of the principal budget headings are listed in the Table below. Summary of Development Budget Checklist Ref Description Checklist Ref Description Checklist Ref Description Checklist 1.0 Land Purchase 4.0 Professional Fees 5.0 Selling & Letting Costs 1.1 Site cost 4.1 Project manager 5.1 Agents 1.2 Stamp duty 4.2 Concept architect 5.2 Legal’s 1.3 Legal costs 4.3 Masterplanning 5.3 Marketing costs 1.4 Agent’s fees 4.4 Architect 5.4 Mock-Up units 1.5 Finance costs 4.5 Quantity surveyor 5.5 Model 1.6 Arrangement fees 4.6 Structural engineer 5.6 Photographic 1.7 Other 4.7 Civil engineer 5.7 Site boards 4.8 Services engineer 5.8 Pre-Opening costs 2.0 Stat. Fees & Contributions 4.9 Health & safety consultant 5.9 Tenant incentives 2.1 Planning fees 4.10 Planning consultant 5.10 Tenant enhancements 2.2 Fire certification 4.11 Fire consultant 5.11 Other 2.3 Planning contributions 4.12 Traffic consultant 2.4 Infrastructure 4.13 Facade Cconsultant 6.0 Financing 2.5 Infrastructure apportionment 4.14 Landscape architect 6.1 Equity 2.6 Works to adjacent properties 4.15 Employers representative 6.2 Senior debt 2.7 Land remediation 4.16 Acoustic consultant 6.3 Mezzanine debt 2.8 Costs to date 4.17 Environmental engineer 6.4 Arrangement fees 2.9 Other 4.18 Archaeologist 6.5 Due diligence 4.19 Resident engineer 6.6 Other 3.0 Construction Costs 4.20 Site survey 3.1 Construction cost estimate 4.21 Structural survey 7.0 Miscellaneous 3.2 Inflation/deflation 4.22 Photographic survey 7.1 Developers management fee 3.3 Costs to date 4.23 Contamination survey 7.2 Tax Advice/accounting 3.4 Phasing costs 4.24 Other 7.3 Adjoining neighbours 3.5 Owner insurances 7.4 Contingency 3.6 Other 7.5 Other Sales Revenues Letting Revenues Technical Data | 43
  • 47.
    Highfield Hospital, Dublin. Performance Davis Langdon News
  • 48.
    Promotions We are delightedto announce that we made two promotions within our management team this year. Jason Hobson Shaw, who has been with us since 1998, was made a Regional Director and is based in the Dublin office. Jason, who spent a number of years working in Australia and the Far East, leads our healthcare team. Declan Hegarty, who joined in 2006, has been promoted to Associate in our Dublin office. Declan has a wide range of commercial experience having delivered the €200 million Grand Canal Theatre and is currently delivering the Grangegorman HSE facility and the Grand Canal Dock Hotel. Charity at work Public Sector Workshop Our annual get together this year was Davis Langdon held a public workshop made all the more inviting by the baking in April, attended by the various skills of our staff. All proceeds went stakeholders in the industry. Healthy to Cancer Ireland . The event was held debate ensued amongst the hundred in conjunction with AECOM offices or so guests as the tough challenges throughout the UK, who raised money in the industry were deliberated. This in aid of Macmillan Cancer Support. workshop was to provide an opportunity Davis Langdon proceeds went to Cancer to discuss some of the key issues and Ireland opportunities in the delivery of the Jason Hobson Shaw Declan Hegarty public sector capital programme. Davis Langdon News | 45
  • 49.
    Davis Langdon People Paul Mitchell Tomás Kelly David Johnston Director Regional Director Associate paul.mitchell@ tomas.kelly david.johnston@ davislangdon.com @davislangdon.com davislangdon.com + 353 1 4320460 + 353 91 530199 + 353 21 436 5006 John O’Regan Jason Hobson-Shaw Neil McBeth Director Regional Director Associate john.o’regan@ jason.hobson-shaw@ neil.mcbeth@ davislangdon.com davislangdon.com davislangdon.com + 353 91 530199 + 353 1 4320434 + 353 1 4320478 Anthony McDermott John Lombard Stuart Griffin Regional Director Associate Associate anthony.mcdermott@ john.lombard@ stuart.griffin@ davislangdon.com davislangdon.com davislangdon.com + 353 1 4320481 + 353 1 4320413 + 353 21 436 5006 Gregory Flynn Mark Smith Eoin Dunphy Regional Director Associate Associate gregory.flynn@ mark.smith@ Eoin.dunphy@ davislangdon.com davislangdon.com davislangdon.com + 353 1 4320498 + 353 1 4320438 + 353 1 4320404 Cathal Barry Andrew Thompson Declan Hegarty Regional Director Associate Associate cathal.barry@ andrew.thompson@ declan.hegarty@ davislangdon.com davislangdon.com davislangdon.com + 353 61 318870 + 353 61 318870 + 353 1 4320465 46 | Davis Langdon People
  • 50.
    The Great WesternGreenway, Mayo. (image courtesy of Mayo County Council and Michael McLaughlin Photography) Highfield Hospital, Dublin. National University of Ireland, Galway - New Engineering Building, Galway. Davis Langdon People | 47 (image courtesy of Neil Warner Photography)
  • 51.
    This page andCover University College Dublin - Student Learning, Leisure & Sports Facility, Dublin. (images courtesy of Donal Murphy Photography) 48 | Davis Langdon
  • 52.
    About AECOM Key offices in Ireland AECOM is a global provider of professional Davis Langdon, an AECOM Company technical and management support services Dublin Office to a broad range of markets, including 24 Lower Hatch Street transportation, facilities, environmental, Dublin 2 energy, water and government.  With T: 353 1 676 3671 approximately 45,000 employees around F: 353 1 676 3672 the world, AECOM is a leader in all of the E: paul.mitchell@davislangdon.com key markets that it serves.  AECOM provides a blend of global reach, local knowledge, Davis Langdon, an AECOM Company innovation and technical excellence in Galway Office delivering solutions that create, enhance Heritage Hall and sustain the world’s built, natural Kirwan’s Lane and social environments.  A Fortune 500 Galway company, AECOM serves clients in more T: 353 91 530 199 than 130 countries and has annual revenue F: 353 91 530 198 in excess of $8.0 billion. E: john.o’regan@davislangdon.com More information on AECOM and its services Davis Langdon, an AECOM Company can be found at www.aecom.com. Limerick Office Mezzanine Suite Riverpoint Lower Mallow Street Limerick T: 353 61 318 870 F: 353 61 318 871 E: cathal.barry@davislangdon.com Davis Langdon, an AECOM Company Cork Office Douglas Business Centre Carrigaline Road Douglas Cork T: 353 21 436 5006 F: 353 21 436 5160 E: david.johnston@davislangdon.com Program, Cost, Consultancy www.davislangdon.com www.aecom.com Designed and delivered by Baseline CS Ireland