The Japanese yen was given another reprieve by the G7 after intense discussions, but the yen's outlook remains tied to risk trends. If risk declines, deleveraging of underfunded carry trades could quickly push the yen higher. The document also includes the daily forex report's analysis of various currency pairs and economic indicators, and previews upcoming high-impact economic data releases.

1. DAILY I FOREX REPORT
15th
MAY 2013
WWW.EPICRESEARCH.CO +91 7316642300

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 Dollar Starting to Lose
Ground with EUR/USD,
USD/JPY
 Euro Gains Limited Ground
on News of Cyprus, Greek
Rescue Payments
 Dollar Thunders Higher,
Traders Positioned for
Further Strength
Japanese Yen Given Another Reprieve by G7,
but Does that Keep the Yen Falling?
It is almost humorous to see the ‘interpretations’ of the
G7 meetings by different policy officials. From Japan,
the assessment was that there was no concern raised
about the level of the Japanese yen and global leaders
were implicitly supportive of the country’s efforts to
this point to ‘beat deflation’. However, according to
German Finance Minister Schaeuble, there was an
‘intense’ discussion on the matter. What matters to the
yen and other currencies engaged in the unnamed FX
war (or ‘competitive devaluation’ if we want to avoid
the full term) is what actions are taken to interrupt the
current policy. In this case, nothing changed.
However, that doesn’t fundamentally alter the
Japanese currency’s outlook. This currency is at the
beck and call of risk trends. If risk slides, deleveraging
overextended and underfunded carry trades will follow
quickly.
TRADING TIPS
 SELL EURUSD BELOW
1.2970 TGT 1.2950/1.2930
SL 1.300
 SELL USDJPY BELOW
101.30 TGT 101.10/100.90
SL 101.60
 SELL GBPUSD BELOW
1.5270 TGT 1.5250/1.5230
SL 1.5300
HEADLINES

3.  HOURLY EURUSD CHARTHOURLY EURUSD CHART
ANALYSIS
OPEN: 1.3001 EURUSD LOOKS DOWNWARD
HIGH: 1.3029 TREND: BEARISH
LOW: 1.2975 STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE
CLOSE: 1.2983 MACD =>.0003(BEARISHSIGNAL)
RSI => 45.2830(BEARISH SIGNAL)

4. HOURLY USDJPY CHART
ANALYSIS
OPEN: 101.37 USDJPY LOOKS UPWARD
HIGH: 101.71 TREND: BULLISH
LOW: 101.34 STRATEGY: BUY ON DIP
CLOSE: 101.64 MACD =>-.04(BULLISH SIGNAL)
RSI => 49.85(BULLISHSIGNAL)

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HOURLY GBPUSD CHART
ANALYSIS
OPEN: 1.5304 GBPUSD LOOKS DOWNWARD
HIGH: 1.5319 TREND: BEARISH
LOW: 1.5276 STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE
CLOSE: 1.5288 MACD =>-.0031(BEARISH SIGNAL)
RSI => 32.8167(BEARISH SIGNAL)

6. HOURLY EURGBP CHART
ANALYSIS
OPEN: 00.8495 EURGBP LOOKS DOWNWARD
HIGH: 00.8506 TREND: BEARISH
LOW: 00.8485 STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE
CLOSE: 00.8492 MACD =>.0009(BEARISH SIGNAL)
RSI => 67.5007(BEARISH SIGNAL)

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HOURLY USD INDEX CHART
ANALYSIS
OPEN: 83.2150 USDINDEX LOOKS UPWARD
HIGH: 83.2620 TREND: BULLISH
LOW: 83.2080 STRATEGY: BUY ON DIP
CLOSE: 83.2370 MACD =>.0035(BULLISHSIGNAL)
RSI => 59.7100(BULLISH SIGNAL)

8. Date Time Currency Event Importance Actual Forecast Previous
Sun
May 12
22:14
NZD REINZ House
Sales (YoY) (APR)
Medium 25.2% 10.9%
22:14
NZD REINZ Housing
Price Index (APR)
Low 3661.5 3631.4
22:14
NZD REINZ Housing
Price Index (MoM)
(APR)
Low 0.8% 2.4%
22:45
NZD Food Prices
(MoM) (APR)
Low 0.2% -1.3%
23:50
JPY Japan Money
Stock M2+CD (YoY)
(APR)
Low 3.3 3.1% 3.1%
23:50
JPY Japan Money
Stock M3 (YoY) (APR)
Low 2.6% 2.5% 2.5%
Mon
May 13
01:30
AUD Home Loans
(MAR)
Medium 5.2% 4.0% 2.1%
01:30
AUD NAB Business
Confidence (APR)
Medium -2 2
01:30
AUD Investment
Lending (MAR)
Low 2.1% 1.9%
01:30
AUD NAB Business
Conditions (APR)
Low -6 -7
01:30
AUD RBA Credit Card
Balances (MAR)
Low A$49.7B A$50.0B
01:30
AUD RBA Credit Card
Purchases (MAR)
Low A$20.2B A$20.2B
01:30
AUD Value of Loans
(MoM) (MAR)
Low 5.8% 1.2%
05:30
CNY Fixed Assets Inv
Excl. Rural YTD (YoY)
(APR)
Medium 20.6% 21.0% 20.9%
05:30
CNY Industrial
Production YTD (YoY)
(APR)
Medium 9.4% 9.5% 9.5%
05:30
CNY Industrial
Production (YoY)
(APR)
Medium 9.3% 9.4% 8.9%
05:30
CNY Retail Sales YTD
(YoY) (APR)
Medium 12.5% 12.6% 12.4%
05:30
CNY Retail Sales (YoY)
(APR)
Medium 12.8% 12.8% 12.6%
07:15
CHF Retail Sales
(Real) (YoY) (MAR)
Medium -0.9% 2.4%
12:30
USD Advance Retail
Sales (APR)
High -0.3% -0.4%
ECONOMIC CALLENDER

9. 12:30
USD Retail Sales Less
Autos (APR)
Medium -0.2% -0.4%
12:30
USD Retail Sales
"Control Group" (APR)
Low 0.3% -0.2%
12:30
USD Retail Sales Ex
Auto & Gas (APR)
Low 0.3% -0.1%
13:00
EUR Euro Zone
Finance Ministers Meet
in Brussels
High
14:00
USD Business
Inventories (MAR)
Medium 0.3% 0.1%
22:45
NZD Retail Sales Ex
Inflation (QoQ) (1Q)
Medium 0.8% 2.1%
23:01
GBP RICS House Price
Balance (APR)
Medium 2% -1%
23:50
JPY Domestic
Corporate Goods Price
Index (MoM) (APR)
Low 0.1% 0.1%
23:50
JPY Domestic
Corporate Goods Price
Index (YoY) (APR)
Low -0.2% -0.5%
23:50
JPY Loans & Discounts
Corp (YoY) (MAR)
Low 1.4%
Tue
May 14
CNY Actual FDI (YoY)
(APR)
Medium 6.2% 5.7%
03:00
NZD Non Resident
Bond Holdings (APR)
Low 68.3%
06:00
EUR German
Consumer Price Index -
EU Harmonised (YoY)
(APR F)
High 1.1% 1.1%
06:00
EUR German
Consumer Price Index
(YoY) (APR F)
High 1.2% 1.2%
06:00
EUR German
Consumer Price Index -
EU Harmonised (MoM)
(APR F)
Medium -0.5% -0.5%
06:00
EUR German
Consumer Price Index
(MoM) (APR F)
Medium -0.5% -0.5%
06:00
JPY Machine Tool
Orders (YoY) (APR P)
Medium -21.5%
06:00
EUR German
Wholesale Price Index
(MoM) (APR)
Low -0.2%
06:00
EUR German
Wholesale Price Index
(YoY) (APR)
Low 0.3%
06:00
USD Fed's Plosser
Speaks on Monetary
Policy in Stockholm
Low
08:30
EUR Italian General
Government Debt
(MAR)
Medium 2017.6B

10. 09:00
EUR German ZEW
Survey (Economic
Sentiment) (MAY)
High 40 36.3
09:00
EUR Euro-Zone
Industrial Production
w.d.a. (YoY) (MAR)
Medium -2.1% -3.1%
09:00
EUR Euro-Zone ZEW
Survey (Economic
Sentiment) (MAY)
Medium 24.9
09:00
EUR German ZEW
Survey (Current
Situation) (MAY)
Medium 9.8 9.2
09:00
EUR Euro-Zone
Industrial Production
s.a. (MoM) (MAR)
Low 0.5% 0.4%
11:30
USD NFIB Small
Business Optimism
(APR)
Low 89.8 89.5
12:30
USD Import Price Index
(MoM) (APR)
Low -0.5% -0.5%
12:30
USD Import Price Index
(YoY) (APR)
Low -2.7%
13:00
CAD Teranet/National
Bank HPI (MoM) (APR)
Low 0.4%
13:00
CAD Teranet/National
Bank HPI (YoY) (APR)
Low 2.6%
13:00
CAD Teranet/National
Bank HP Index (APR)
Low 153.31
15:00
USD New York Fed
Releases Quarterly
Household Debt Report
Medium
23:50
JPY Tertiary Industry
Index (MoM) (MAR)
Medium -0.7% 1.1%
Wed
May 15
01:30
AUD New Motor
Vehicle Sales (MoM)
(APR)
Low -0.6%
01:30
AUD New Motor
Vehicle Sales (YoY)
(APR)
Low 4.5%
01:30
AUD Wage Cost Index
(QoQ) (1Q)
Low 0.8% 0.8%
01:30
AUD Wage Cost Index
(YoY) (1Q)
Low 3.3% 3.4%
05:00
JPY Consumer
Confidence (APR)
Medium 45.5 44.8
05:30
EUR French Gross
Domestic Product
(YoY) (1Q P)
Medium -0.4% -0.3%
05:30
EUR French Gross
Domestic Product
(QoQ) (1Q P)
Low -0.1% -0.3%
06:00
EUR German Gross
Domestic Product
n.s.a. (YoY) (1Q P)
High 0.2% 0.1%

11. 06:00
EUR German Gross
Domestic Product
w.d.a. (YoY) (1Q P)
High 0.2% 0.4%
06:00
EUR German Gross
Domestic Product s.a.
(QoQ) (1Q P)
Medium 0.3% -0.6%
07:15
CHF Producer & Import
Prices (MoM) (APR)
Low -0.2% 0.0%
07:15
CHF Producer & Import
Prices (YoY) (APR)
Low -0.3% -0.3%
08:00
EUR Italian Gross
Domestic Product s.a.
and w.d.a. (YoY) (1Q
P)
Medium -2.3% -2.8%
08:00
EUR Italian Gross
Domestic Product s.a.
and w.d.a. (QoQ) (1Q
P)
Low -0.4% -0.9%
08:30
GBP Jobless Claims
Change (APR)
High -3.0K -7.0K
08:30
GBP Average Weekly
Earnings (3M/YoY)
(MAR)
Medium 0.7% 0.8%
08:30
GBP Claimant Count
Rate (APR)
Medium 4.6% 4.6%
08:30
GBP Employment
Change (3M/3M)
(MAR)
Medium -20K -2K
08:30
GBP ILO
Unemployment Rate
(3M) (MAR)
Medium 7.9% 7.9%
08:30
GBP Weekly Earnings
exBonus (3M/YoY)
(MAR)
Low 0.8% 1.0%
09:00
EUR Euro-Zone Gross
Domestic Product s.a.
(YoY) (1Q A)
High -0.9% -0.9%
09:00
CHF ZEW Survey
(Expectations) (MAY)
Medium 20
09:00
EUR Euro-Zone Gross
Domestic Product s.a.
(QoQ) (1Q A)
Medium -0.1% -0.6%
09:30
GBP Bank of England
Inflation Report
High
11:00
USD MBA Mortgage
Applications (MAY 10)
Low 7.0%
12:30
USD Producer Price
Index Ex Food &
Energy (YoY) (APR)
Medium 1.7% 1.7%
12:30
USD Producer Price
Index (YoY) (APR)
Medium 0.8% 1.1%
12:30
CAD Manufacturing
Shipments (MoM)
(MAR)
Low 0.5% 2.6%
12:30
USD Empire
Manufacturing (MAY)
Low 4 3.05

12. 12:30
USD Producer Price
Index Ex Food &
Energy (MoM) (APR)
Low 0.1% 0.2%
12:30
USD Producer Price
Index (MoM) (APR)
Low -0.6% -0.6%
13:00
CAD Existing Home
Sales (MoM) (APR)
Medium 2.40%
13:00
USD Net Long-term
TIC Flows (MAR)
Medium -$17.8B
13:00
USD Total Net TIC
Flows (MAR)
Low $53.6B
13:15
USD Industrial
Production (APR)
Medium -0.1% 0.4%
13:15
USD Manufacturing
(SIC) Production (APR)
Medium 0.0% -0.1%
13:15
USD Capacity
Utilization (APR)
Low 78.3% 78.5%
14:00
USD NAHB Housing
Market Index (MAY)
Low 43 42
14:30
USD DOE Cushing OK
Crude Inventory (MAY
10)
Low -652K
14:30
USD DOE U.S. Crude
Oil Inventories (MAY
10)
Low 230K
14:30
USD DOE U.S.
Distillate Inventory
(MAY 10)
Low 1812K
14:30
USD DOE U.S.
Gasoline Inventories
(MAY 10)
Low -910K
22:30
NZD Business NZ
Performance of
Manufacturing Index
(APR)
Medium 53.4
23:50
JPY Gross Domestic
Product Annualized
(1Q P)
High 2.7% 0.2%
23:50
JPY Gross Domestic
Product (QoQ) (1Q P)
High 0.7% 0.0%
23:50
JPY Nominal Gross
Domestic Product
(QoQ) (1Q P)
High 0.5% -0.3%
23:50
JPY Foreign Buying
Japan Bonds (Yen)
(MAY 10)
Low ¥267.0B
23:50
JPY Foreign Buying
Japan Stocks (Yen)
(MAY 10)
Low -¥26.2B
23:50
JPY Gross Domestic
Product Deflator (YoY)
(1Q P)
Low -0.9% -0.7%
23:50
JPY Japan Buying
Foreign Bonds (Yen)
(MAY 10)
Low ¥309.9B

13. 23:50
JPY Japan Buying
Foreign Stocks (Yen)
(MAY 10)
Low ¥28.0B
Thu
May 16
01:30
AUD RBA FX
Transactions "Other"
(APR)
Low 71M
01:30
AUD RBA Foreign
Exchange Transaction
(Australian dollar)
(APR)
Low 577M
03:30
AUD RBA FX
Transactions
"Government" (APR)
Low
04:00
JPY Tokyo
Condominium Sales
(YoY) (APR)
Low 48.4%
04:30
JPY Industrial
Production (YoY) (MAR
F)
Medium -7.3%
04:30
JPY Capacity
Utilization (MoM) (MAR
F)
Low 0.7%
04:30
JPY Industrial
Production (MoM)
(MAR F)
Low 0.2%
07:45
USD Fed's Plosser
Speaks on Monetary
Policy in Milan
Low
09:00
EUR Euro-Zone
Consumer Price Index -
Core (YoY) (APR F)
High 1.0% 1.0%
09:00
EUR Euro-Zone
Consumer Price Index
(YoY) (APR F)
High 1.2% 1.2%
09:00
EUR Euro-Zone
Consumer Price Index
(MoM) (APR)
Medium -0.1% 1.2%
09:00
EUR Euro-Zone Trade
Balance (euros) (MAR)
Low 10.4B
09:00
EUR Euro-Zone Trade
Balance s.a. (euros)
(MAR)
Low 12.0B 12.0B
11:45
USD Fed's Rosengren
Speaks in Milan
Low
12:30
USD Consumer Price
Index Ex Food &
Energy (YoY) (APR)
High 1.8% 1.9%
12:30
USD Consumer Price
Index (YoY) (APR)
High 1.3% 1.5%
12:30
USD Building Permits
(MoM) (APR)
Medium 3.6% -3.9%
12:30
USD Consumer Price
Index Ex Food &
Energy (MoM) (APR)
Medium 0.2% 0.1%
12:30
USD Consumer Price
Index (MoM) (APR)
Medium -0.3% -0.2%

14. 12:30
USD Housing Starts
(MoM) (APR)
Medium -5.4% 7.0%
12:30
USD Initial Jobless
Claims (MAY 11)
Medium 330K 323K
12:30
CAD International
Securities Transactions
(Canadian dollar)
(MAR)
Low -6.31B
12:30
USD Building Permits
(APR)
Low 940K 902K
12:30
USD Consumer Price
Index Core Index s.a.
(APR)
Low 232.758
12:30
USD Consumer Price
Index n.s.a. (APR)
Low 232.7 232.773
12:30
USD Continuing Claims
(MAY 4)
Low 3003K 3005K
12:30
USD Housing Starts
(APR)
Low 980K 1036K
13:00
USD Fed's Fisher
Speaks at NABE
Industry Conference in
Houston
Low
14:00
USD Philadelphia Fed.
(MAY)
Medium 2.3 1.3
14:30
USD EIA Natural Gas
Storage Change (MAY
10)
Low 88
19:05
USD Fed's Williams
Speaks on Monetary
Policy in Oregon
Low
22:00
NZD ANZ Job
Advertisements (MoM)
(APR)
Low 0.7%
22:45
NZD Producer Prices-
Inputs (QoQ) (1Q)
Low 0.2% -0.3%
22:45
NZD Producer Prices-
Outputs (QoQ) (1Q)
Low 0.0% -0.1%
23:50
JPY Machine Orders
(YoY) (MAR)
Medium -4.9% -11.3%
23:50
JPY Housing Loans
(YoY) (1Q)
Low 3.1%
23:50
JPY Machine Orders
(MoM) (MAR)
Low 3.3% 7.5%
Fri
May 17
USD Revisions:
Housing Starts
Low
01:00
NZD ANZ Consumer
Confidence Index
(MAY)
Low 119.2
01:00
NZD ANZ Consumer
Confidence (MoM)
(MAY)
Low 3.8%

15. 01:30
CNY China April
Property Prices
Medium
02:00
CNY Conference Board
China April Leading
Economic Index
Low
06:00
EUR EU 25 New Car
Registrations (APR)
Low -10.2%
09:00
EUR Euro-Zone
Construction Output
s.a. (MoM) (MAR)
Low -0.8%
09:00
EUR Euro-Zone
Construction Output
w.d.a. (YoY) (MAR)
Low 0.8%
12:30
CAD Bank Canada
Consumer Price Index
Core (YoY) (APR)
High 1.2% 1.4%
12:30
CAD Consumer Price
Index (YoY) (APR)
High 0.9% 1.0%
12:30
CAD Bank Canada
Consumer Price Index
Core (MoM) (APR)
Medium 0.2% 0.2%
12:30
CAD Consumer Price
Index (MoM) (APR)
Medium 0.2% 0.2%
12:30
CAD Consumer Price
Index (APR)
Low 122.9
12:30
CAD Consumer Price
Index s.a. (MoM) (APR)
Low 0.1%
12:30
CAD Core CPI s.a.
(MoM) (APR)
Low 0.2%
12:30
CAD Wholesale Sales
(MoM) (MAR)
Low 0.4% 0.0%
13:55
USD U. of Michigan
Confidence (MAY P)
Medium 77.6 76.4
14:00
USD Leading Indicators
(APR)
Medium 0.2% -0.1%
14:00
USD Revisions to
Factory Orders Report
Low
17:45
USD Fed's
Kocherlakota,
Riksbank's Ingves
Speak in Chicago
Low
Sat
May 18
15:00
USD Fed's Bernanke
Delivers
Commencement
Speech at Bard College
Low

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