Evolving technologies and changes in user preferences require ICT regulators to react dynamically and in an agile manner to facilitate fair competition and protect consumers. The lines between sector- and subject-specific regulators may need to be redrawn. In some cases, more specialised regulators may need to be established, eg a data protection agency or a spectrum agency. Evolving technologies also provide ICT regulators opportunities to become more effective and fine-tune tools. Big data and advances in AI allow regulators to become agile and dynamic, enabling precision, evidence-based regulations.

1. Dr Christoph Stork, Yaounde, Cameroon 17 October 2023
A New Regulatory Philosophy
Regulatory responses to evolving technologies
Research ICT Solutions

2. Trends that require a regulatory response
Tend 1: Transition to a digital data-
centric business model
Tend 2: The global Internet Value
Chain has turned into a self re-
enforcing value circle
Tend 3: The market value of the
global Internet value chain
quadrupled between 2008 and 2020
Tend 4: Explosion of data; user,
object and AI generated
Opportunity: Big data for precision regulation

3. Trend 1: Transition to a digital, data-centric, business model
Blockchain
Accounting
for data
Big Data
Combining
data
IoT
Generating
data
Analogue Digital
Business model Service Connectivity
Metric Minutes and SMS Bandwidth or throughput
Cost sensitivity Distance, duration and location matter Time, distance and location insensitive
Billing
Access and usage billing (voice and SMS
o
ff
-net / on-net, peak / o
ff
-peak)
Simple access billing
Tra
ffi
c Monitoring
Detailed tra
ffi
c monitoring as part of the
billing system
Usage monitoring limited to data use
Postpaid
subscribers
Detailed vetting to reduce risk or revenue
loss and expenses that arise from call
termination and subsidized handsets
• Postpaid risk limited to revenue of one billing cycle
• No external expense risks
• Prepaid and postpaid do not need to be distinguished
by pricing
• Postpaid may be extended without signi
fi
cant vetting
Network
infrastructure
GSM 1G and 2G 2.5G, 3G, 4G, 5G
• Telcos provided last-mile connectivity to their customers ever since the first phone call in 10 March 1876. Only the
types of services have evolved.
• Mobile 1G was about voice, 2G about SMS since then, any further iteration has been investment into data connectivity.
• The transition to data-centric business model is inevitable.

4. Trend 2: The global Internet Value Chain is becoming a self
re-enforcing value circle
• In the past, the data flow was from content owners to the end-
users via radio, TV and the public Internet.
• Today, users create content through social media applications and
other ways of uploading data, contributing to the content segment
of the value chain (YouTube, Facebook, TikTok, Instagram, etc.)
• Network effects triggered by user generated content led to
acceleration in broadband adoption and data use.
• While streaming services such as Netflix are regular value chain, AI
(ChatGPT, etc) will accelerate the self-reinforcing character of the
Internet.
THE
INTERNET
VALUE
CIRCLE
USERS
Skills
Content
ONLINE SERVICES
e-Retail
Streaming
Gaming
Social media
Search services
Cloud services
ENABLING
TECHNOLOGIES
& SERVICES
Web design &
hosting
Payment platforms
Advertising
CONTENT
RIGHTS
Premium rights
Professional content
User-generated
content
CONNECTIVITY
First Mile
Middle Mile
Last Mile
Invisible Mile
USER
INTERFACE
Access devices
OS &
software apps
ONLINE
SERVICES
CONTENT
ENABLING
SERVICES
CONNECTIVITY
USER
INTERFACE

5. Trend 3: The market value of the global Internet value
chain quadrupled between 2008 and 2020. The
connectivity segment more than tripled in market value.
Segment Example activities
USD billion
Growth
2008 2015 2020
Content Rights Premium content rights 37 66 186 403%
Online Services
e-Travel, video and audio publishing,
gaming, gambling, search, social media,
information & reference, cloud based
services, other online services
477 1,595 3,792 695%
Enabling Technologies
& Service
Web design & hosting, payment systems,
advertising exchanges, CDNs
188 442 812 332%
Connectivity
Mobile access, tower companies, fixed
access
229 586 988 331%
User Interface Hardware devices, software and systems 251 659 897 257%
Total 1,182 3,348 6,675 465%
Source: https://www.gsma.com/publicpolicy/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/Internet-Value-Chain-2022.pdf

6. Trend 4: Explosion of data from users, things and AI generated
• The digitalisation of societies and economies is
continuously generating record amounts of data.
• Digitalisation is driven by increased and faster
connectivity of people and of things.
• Fibre to the home (FTTx) and fast mobile networks provide
the opportunity to engage in digital activities, and social
media and user-generated content provide the motivation
for it.
• At the same time, more objects become “smart”, i.e.,
connected to the Internet to receive and send data.
• As a result of the explosion of data, new technologies
have evolved that help to sift through data and derive
value from combining and analysing large data sets.
• Explosion of data poses regulatory challenges but also
regulatory opportunities
Explosion
of Data
Blockchain
Accounting
for data
Big Data
Combining
data
IoT
Generating
data
AI
Learning
from data
Cloud
Storing
data

7. The data protection implications across many different segments of the
value chain and across borders requires collaboration between different
regulators from different jurisdictions
Tesla
software
updates
data on driving
behavior
• An example to illustrate this: Tesla monitors the
status of cars sold abroad and updates
software remotely.
• It could sell car usage data to a car insurance
that the insurance can charge lower premiums
to careful drivers and higher ones to reckless
drivers.
i. Usage data collected using mobile
networks - overseen by the telecom
regulator
ii. Shared with car manufacturers -
regulated by transport and safety
authorities
iii. Shared with insurance companies -
overseen by the financial services
regulator
• What recourse do consumers have if they do
not want their car usage data shared with third
parties like insurance companies?
Car insurance
data on driving
behavior
Insurance
premium

8. Regulatory time line
LAST 25 YEARS
Landline Monopolies
Mobile Oligopolies
ISP Oligopolies
NEXT 25 YEARS
Multi-layered access
providers (incl. Wifi at home,
work, public spaces)
FIRST 100 YEARS
Landline Monopoly
Voice Voice, SMS, Data Data
Ministry regulates
ICT Sector Specific
Regulators
Co-ordination of regulatory
institutions within a country
and across borders
Business
Model
Regulatory
Approach
Market
Structure

9. The lines between sector- and subject-specific regulators may need to
be redrawn and, in some cases, more specialised regulators may need to
be established.
• A sector-specific ICT Regulator is complemented by
functional regulatory agencies that have
responsibilities across all sectors of an economy.
• The best set-up may differ for countries, the respective
legal frameworks and will also change over time.
• ICASA South Africa:
• The allocation of high demand spectrum was
delayed for 15 years.
• At the start of COVID-19 pandemic it was allocated
within 4 weeks.
• The additional spectrum increased the quality of
service and lowered prices.
• An independent spectrum entity with sole
responsibility for spectrum efficiency, similar to central
banks could lead to more efficiently spectrum use,
including secondary spectrum use and spectrum
parks.
Functional or horizontal regulators
Sector specific or vertical regulators
Consumer Protection
Competition Commission
Data Protection & Cyber Security
ICT
Sector
Electricity
Financial
Agriculture
Water
Other
Sectors
Other cross-sector Regulators
Environmental Protection
Roads
&
Infrastructure

10. Precision regulation - Evidence based regulation - Big Data & AI
Sector regulators
Audited financial statements of licensees
GIS maps of mobile coverage, roads,
electricity and fibre infrastructure
GIS Processing &
Mapping
National Statistical Office
Admin boundaries
Census data
Survey data
National accounts
Public data
Broadband speeds (Ookla)
GIS maps of population layers
ITU and World Bank indicators
Telegeography capacity data
Mobile Operators & ISPs
RAN sites and antenna specifications
Big data: cell level QOS in real time

11. Example heat maps
• Heat maps can show upload and download speeds, CSSR, DCR, latency, traffic
• Data is aggregated from cell level to RAN site to geographical units like regions, districts sub-
counties, hexagon grid
• Guiding fibre investment decisions
• Resolving active infrastructure sharing disputes
Population Density

12. Estimating unmet demand for Universal Service Funds

13. Investment
matching for
Universal Service
Funds
• Systematically matching of
cost of supply, the estimated
unmet demand, hexagon by
hexagon
• Incorporating demand
stimulation and direct
subsidies to make a RAN site
viable
• Factoring in cost of electricity
and back haul
• Identifying profitable new
RAN site locations and
establishing subsidy
requirements for unviable
ones.

14. Conclusion
• Evolving technologies and changes in user preferences require ICT regulators to react dynamically
and in an agile manner to facilitate fair competition and protect consumers
• The lines between sector- and subject-specific regulators may need to be redrawn
• In some cases, more specialised regulators may need to be established, eg a data protection
agency or a spectrum agency
• Evolving technologies also provide ICT regulators opportunities to become more effective and fine
tune tools. Big data and advances in AI allow regulators to become agile and dynamic, enabling
precision, evidence-based regulations

15. Dr. Christoph Stork , Partner, RIS
+27 84 999 0002
christoph@researchictsolutions.com
Steve Esselaar , Partner, RIS
+1 778 865 5695
steve@researchictsolutions.com
Research ICT Solutions
• Research ICT Solutions Ltd. is a boutique consultancy based in Canada, South Africa and Namibia. Started in
2013, we have built a select list of clients who need simple but effective tools to make better decisions. Our
clients range from country regulators and policy makers, multilateral organizations and companies.
• We track changing business models, prices, network performance and international best regulatory practices.
This allows us to support policy-makers, regulators and telcos with evidence-based advice and decision tools.
• We develop tools to monitor and evaluate the ICT sector ecosystems and support regulatory processes such as
subsidizing network rollout out, infrastructure sharing, wholesale price regulation, market definitions and
spectrum management.