CrystalBall in New Product Development

3/3/2010R Balisnomo1Name: Ramon (Ray) BalisnomoTitle/Position: Design for Six Sigma Instructor/Engr.Company: Ingersoll Rand Securities TechnologiesCONTACT INFORMATION:E-mail: ramon_balisnomo@irco.com rbalisnomo@gmail.comTelephone: 719-896-3604

Analyzing test lab dataExercise 1 of 3Establishing Product Performance Targets1R Balisnomo3/3/2010

R Balisnomo5Right-click your mouse button3/3/2010

R Balisnomo7Objectives:How hard should the face plate be for maximum strength?What is certainty that the deadbolt will tolerate 4,150 ft-lbs of force?Strength Frame machine was used for measuring the pull strength.3/3/2010

R Balisnomo12Let:T = Target Value for Hardness

Y = predicted pull strength @ TThen, Y = -113.23T2+ 9510.1T - 1954863/3/2010

R Balisnomo16Min XMax X3/3/2010

R Balisnomo17Optimal YAdjustment <[Max-Min]Min XTarget ValueMax X3/3/2010

R Balisnomo18Performance GoalOptimal YAdjustment <[Max-Min]Min XTarget ValueMax X3/3/2010

R Balisnomo26Answers:How hard should the face plate be for maximum strength? 42.0 Rockwell C for an expected pull strength of 4,200 ft-lbs.What is certainty that the deadbolt will tolerate 4,150 ft-lbs of force? 99.84% @ 42.0 Rockwell CStrength Frame machine was used for measuring the pull strength.3/3/2010

R Balisnomo27ORACLE Crystal Ball is needed in new product development because:Errors are inherent in all predictive models (e.g., Linear Regression or Design of Experiments). We need a tool for modeling them (risks) so that our new products perform as expected.Often times we are searching for that “Sweet Spot” or Optimal Point that lets our product perform at its peak best.We want to know the probability of success (or failure) associated with our design or performance goals.3/3/2010

Linear statistical stack-upsExercise 2 of 3Robust Tolerance Design 2R Balisnomo3/3/2010

3/3/2010R Balisnomo29Schlage ND-Series Heavy Duty Commercial Cylindrical Lever LockBased on the survey response of 107 customers in July 2009

3/3/2010R Balisnomo30+40 interdependent critical dimensions in the ND Lock

3/3/2010R Balisnomo31VerticalTechnicalDefinitionof WobbleUSL = 0.02USL = 0

3/3/2010R Balisnomo32VerticalTechnicalDefinitionof WobbleUSL = 0.02HorizontalUSL = 0

3/3/2010R Balisnomo33VerticalTechnicalDefinitionof WobbleHorizontalUSL = 0USL = 0.03Axial

3/3/2010R Balisnomo34Use Copy & Paste for Horizontal & Axial, but don’t forget to change USL=0.03 for AxialVerticalTechnicalDefinitionof WobbleUSL = 0.02USL = 0

3/3/2010R Balisnomo35VerticalTechnicalDefinitionof WobbleUSL = 0.02USL = 0

3/3/2010R Balisnomo36VerticalTechnicalDefinitionof WobbleUSL = 0.02HorizontalUSL = 0

3/3/2010R Balisnomo37VerticalTechnicalDefinitionof WobbleHorizontalUSL = 0USL = 0.03Axial

3/3/2010R Balisnomo38Financial Analysis of Wobble Problem

3/3/2010R Balisnomo46Before  After OptQuest 2% improvementVerticalTechnicalDefinitionof WobbleUSL = 0.02USL = 0

3/3/2010R Balisnomo47Before  After OptQuest 2% improvementVerticalTechnicalDefinitionof WobbleUSL = 0.02HorizontalUSL = 0

3/3/2010R Balisnomo48Before  After OptQuest 73% improvementVerticalTechnicalDefinitionof WobbleHorizontalUSL = 0USL = 0.03Axial

3/3/2010R Balisnomo49Financial Analysis of Wobble Problem

3/3/2010R Balisnomo50Optional Step: If you only want to run 1 out of 4 possible Forecast (Outputs)

3/3/2010R Balisnomo5199% @ $394 88% @ $900AD86% @ $957 E95% @ $634B-$38082% @ $1062F90% @ $835CWhichHorseWould YouBet On?

3/3/2010R Balisnomo5299% Certain we can save at least $394K by changing the nominal drawing dimensions.

R Balisnomo53ORACLE Crystal Ball® is needed in new product development because:When it comes to tolerance stack-ups1 there is no better tool for optimizing fit and function. Humans typically cannot simultaneously adjust +40 interdependent variables at the same time.It’s exponentially easier to fix the problem in the Design Phase then it is to fix the problem once the product has launched. It’s a good tool for translating quality and engineering terms into language finance and management can understand.3/3/20101. note: Cartesian -- not GD&T

Efficient FrontierExercise 3 of 3Cost Versus Quality3R Balisnomo3/3/2010

3/3/2010R Balisnomo553. Extract Current Security Control Key 2. Rotate 30 Degrees CCWNEW4. Insert New Security Control Key 5. Rotate back to home positionThe New Way to Rekey a Lock1. Insert Current Security Control KeyNEW

R Balisnomo571 = choose this supplier to make this part0 = do NOT choose this supplier3/3/2010Key:

R Balisnomo58“Best” Supplier

61R BalisnomoObjective:If the requirement is 0.5<Cpk < 0.9, find the lowest cost supplier(s)If the requirement is 0.9<Cpk < 1.3, find the lowest cost supplier(s)If the requirement is 1.3<Cpk < 1.7, find the lowest cost supplier(s)If the requirement is Cpk > 1.7, find the lowest cost supplier(s)3/3/2010

63R BalisnomoThe model does not know that only one of the four suppliers can produce each part. We have to specify this constraint into the analysis.3/3/2010

64R BalisnomoThis constraint only allows one supplier out of four to produce each part.3/3/2010

65R BalisnomoDue to time constraints, we may be running the optimization for a much-less time (only 3-5 minutes); thus, your actual results may vary from this presentation.3/3/2010

R Balisnomo661,135 simulations @ 10,000 runs per simulation (11,350,000 data points) in 10 minutes, or 18,917 data points per second. 3/3/2010

CrystalBall in New Product Development