The document discusses a planned panel discussion on the crisis in Venezuela. It provides details on four guests who will participate: Braulio Jatar, a documentary filmmaker from Caracas; John Otis, an NPR reporter; Patrick Duddy, a former US Ambassador to Venezuela; and Jennifer Cyr, an assistant professor who studies Latin America. It then summarizes the key issues in Venezuela, including the country's economic decline despite large oil reserves, widespread protests against President Maduro, and censorship of journalists. Finally, it outlines some controversial issues like medicine and food shortages and must-read news articles on the latest protests and political situation.

1. Crisis in Venezuela
Anna Sutterer
Jonah McKeown
Federico Maccioni
Tomás Orihuela

2.
1. Booked and confirmed guests.
2. Issue summary.
3. Key points of controversy and contention.
4. Must­read articles.
5. Pre­Interviews.
6. Organization of the show.

3. 1. Booked and confirmed guests
Guest One: Braulio Jatar
Official Job Title​:
Documentary filmmaker from
Caracas, Venezuela
Location​: Manhattan, NY
E­mail
address​:​brauliojatar75@gmail
.com
Twitter:​ @rc_caracas
Phone numbers​: 718
­877­0302
Skype username​: Braulio Jatar
Guest One: John Otis
Official Job Title​: NPR
reporter and consultant for
Committee to Protect
Journalists
Location​: Bogotá,
Colombia
E­mail address​:
johnotis2002@yahoo.com
Twitter​: @JohnOtis
Phone numbers​:
+57 310 259 9445 (Ven.)
U.S. Tel: 1 713 893 7422
Skype username​: johnbeeg
Recent snapshot
Guest Two: Patrick
Duddy
Official Job Title​: Former
Ambassador to Venezuela
and Director of the Center
for Latin American and
Caribbean Studies at Duke
University
Location​: Durham, NC
E­mail address​:
patrick.duddy@duke.edu
Twitter​:
@AMBPatrickDuddy
Phone numbers​:
1­919­660­7866
Skype username​:
patrickdduddy
Recent Snapshot
Guest Three: Jennifer Cyr
Official Job Title​: Assistant Professor of Government and Public Policy and
Latin American Studies at University of Arizona
Location​: Tucson, AZ
E­mail address​: ​jmcyr@email.arizona.edu

4.
Phone numbers​: ​Mobile number: 520­465­7116. Alternate mobile number
(husband's): 520­465­6548
Skype username​:​ jenmcyr
Guest Four: Gabriel Hetland
Official Job Title​: University at Albany, SUNY professor of Latin American
Sociology
Location​: Albany, NY
E­mail address​: ​ghetland@albany.edu
Phone numbers​: 585 755 1504
Skype username​: ghetland1

5. 2. Issue Summary
Venezuela has been in a​ state of economic decline ​for the past several years, despite
being home to the world’s largest known oil reserves. ​Inflation ​has soared 700 percent, and
citizens are lining up in the streets to get basic food and supplies. Last year, 8,946 people were
murdered in the capital Caracas, meaning 120 people for every 100,000 inhabitants. Detroit, the
most dangerous city in the United States, had a murder rate of 43.5 people killed for every
100,000.There is a widespread and growing ​opposition movement, made up of a coalition of
parties, that is seeking a referendum​ to remove President Nicolas Maduro, whose policies they
believe are the cause of the current crisis.
Nicolas Maduro has been the president since 2013, following the death of Hugo Chavez.
Chavez was a charismatic leader who was elected in 1998, and proceeded to reform the
government with a new constitution and socialist policies that focused on using the country’s oil
wealth to help the poor. Chavez was very popular in the country and his supporters call
themselves “Chavistas.” Maduro considers himself somewhat of a continuation of Chavez’s
socialist policies. He was elected by a narrow margin in 2013 and is now at only around 20%
support.
The socialist policies of Venezuela under Chavez included ​subsidies for food​ and other
essential items, as well as the fixing of prices and exchange rates. This was intended to help the
poor, and it worked for a time, but a combination of factors including the ​global collapse in oil
prices​, combined with Venezuela’s failure to invest in infrastructure and means of production
apart from oil, now means that Venezuela must import nearly three quarters of all they consume.
Protests really started in earnest in 2014 and in that year turned deadly as at least three people
were killed.
Ever since Chavez’s time the government has been suppressing free speech through
economic pressure and intimidation​, and the ​jailing or deportation of journalists​. Maduro
has promoted military leaders to various positions within the government, broadening the
military’s influence within the country. One notable example is the announcement by Maduro in
July that General Vladimir Padrino Lopez, the Defense Minister, would take “command and the

6. absolute subordination” of all government ministries in an effort to cure the so­called “Common
Shortage” of basic goods.
In January 2015 the opposition party took control of the National Assembly legislature
after 16 years of socialist leadership. Opposition protesters staged a ​massive march in the
streets on September 1​ to call for a referendum on Maduro’s presidency. According to the
polls, the majority of Venezuelans (64%) wouldn’t vote for him at the referendum. January 2017
is a crucial date for the opposition, because there is a Venezuelan constitutional amendment that
says that the people have the power to call for a revocatory referendum against the government,
However, if it happens before the half of the president’s term, there must be a new president. If
the recall vote takes place after the half term, the Vice President, Aristóbulo Istúriz (who is of the
same party), will finish out the presidential term for another two years.

7. 3. Key points of controversy and contention
● Shortage of medicines​: 80% of hospitals are missing the medicines they need.
● Obstacles for local and foreign journalists​: Many have been arrested or intimidated;
many foreign journalists have not been allowed to enter the country: professionals from
NPR (John Otis), Radio Caracol Colombia (Cesar Moreno), Al Jazeera (Teresa Bo, John
Holman, Lagmi Ch​á​vez, Mariano Rosendi and Ricardo Lopez) Le Monde (Diane
Detoeuf).
● Some in the government blame the US for the ​food shortages​: Welfare Vice Minister
says Obama sent an organized mafia to Venezuela to make mass food purchases.
Venezuelans have to wait in line an average of 35 hours a week to buy food (forfeiting
work time). Many are flooding through newly opened Colombian borders to get
necessary items.
● Censorship​. In the last years, 25 media have changed their owner. They were bought by
private owners who are indeed supporting Chavismo. Self­censorship also plays an
important role. There are not any comedy TV shows anymore. In some cases it’s
prohibited to talk about daily episodes of lynching and robbery on television. 1
● The timing of the potential recall vote​. If the vote takes place before January 10, and
Maduro is ousted, there will be a new presidential election and a new president, more
than likely from one of the opposition parties. If the vote takes place after Jan. 10, then
Maduro’s Vice President Aristóbulo Istúriz would take over, effectively continuing
socialist leadership. The government is trying to buy time to prevent the vote from taking
place this year.
● Protests. ​There are more opposition protests scheduled for Sept. 14.
1
Data collected from an interview with Luis Carlos D​íaz, a Venezuelan journalist that agreed on sharing
information with GJ.

8. 4. Must-read articles
1. Chavismo fights for survival​ (August 2​nd​
, 2016) ​The Guardian
The piece describes the Venezuelan context just after August 1​st​
, when the opposition
reached the sufficient number of signatures to get the process for a recall referendum started.
However, the main theme of the article is the analysis of Chavismo socialism, and its possible
future perspectives. In a country suffering from an economic crisis to which the government
hasn’t been capable to respond, violence is spreading from the capital to the outskirts, and by
now, people cannot count on the government for the distribution of basic goods.
Maduro’s regime is also characterized by a brutal repression of political opposition, with
documented episodes of torture. After almost two decades of Bolivarian Revolution, Chavez’s
project seems to have failed, just like the attempts to blame the “forces of imperialism” for this
situation. Chavez’s charisma and esteem are far from being the current president’s features, and
the system that once professed an egalitarian vision, forces now its citizens to work on farms to
fight the food crisis. Maduro is trying to delay the Referendum and his allies have already filed
8,000 legal challenges to the process, but a new development of Chavismo seems unlikely.
2. Venezuela protests could trigger new stage in political shutdown ​(August 31​st​
, 2016)
Sibylla Brodzinsky, ​The Guardian
This article illustrates how Venezuela has been waiting for the protests of September 1​st​
,
with the opposition trying to incite the greatest number of people to go to Caracas and
demonstrate against the government, and Maduro defining them as anti­democratic and the
march itself as a “coup.” The government has deployed soldiers on the streets of the capital and
has blocked some of the routes to Caracas. They also banned private aircraft and drones from
flying over Venezuelan territory for 6 days.
There’s also a common fear of a possible breakdown, as the one occurred in February
2014, when one of the leaders of the MUD (​Democratic Unity Roundtable, the opposition
coalition​), Leopoldo Lopez, was arrested. In this context, the increasing involvement of the
military in the government seems to be an intimidating strategy planned by Maduro, who aims to

9. put the Army against those who decide to join the opposition. However, Venezuela is starting to
feel international pressure, been criticized by OAS, Mercosur and several Prime Ministers of
other countries: all this gives strength to the entire opposition movement, which has to reach the
recall Referendum before January 10​th​
, 2017.
3. Chavez’s little blue book​ ​(May 28​th​
, 2016) Michael Reid, ​The Economist
This article focuses on the role President Maduro is playing in breaking the rules of the
constitution that Chavez implemented in Venezuela in 1999. This is partially caused by the many
problems that Maduro is facing, like the global drop in oil prices and the shortages of food and
medicines, as well as the loss of neighboring allies like Brazil, and worsening relations with the
Vatican. Almagro, the secretary general of OAS, as defined him a “pretty dictator.” After an
election in December 2015, when the opposition, leaded by Capriles, gained control of the
National Assembly.
Article 72 of the “little blue book” declares that all elected officeholders are subject to
recall via referendum after the halfway point of their terms, but Maduro, who, according to the
polls, would certainly lose the referendum, said that this possibility was merely “a constitutional
option,” not an “obligation.” His opinion was reaffirmed by Istúriz, the Vice President. If the
president is recalled after his fourth year of term, the vice­president, who is appointed by the
president, serves until its end.
4. Venezuela’s Risky Recall ​(June 14​th​
, 2016) Joshua Spivak, ​Foreign Affairs
This piece concerns the possibility of a recall referendum in Venezuela, with the goal of
ousting President Maduro. It then focuses on the advantages and disadvantages of a recall, giving
past examples of this legal process. This process went into effect in California in 2003 and in
several European countries, like Poland and Germany. The problem is that this practice does not
always lead to a change in leadership, and it often enforces and strengthen the current
government, as in the case of Chavez in 2004.

10. This diffusion of the term “recall” is mainly due to social media’s ability to reach people,
at every social level and in every part of the country. However, in the case of Venezuela, even if
the opposition succeeded in achieving a recall vote, they would face several limiting measures
imposed by the government; for example, the stipulation that the opposition must reach a
minimum of 7.5 million votes. Maduro has also implemented an intimidating state of emergency,
and aims to delay the possible referendum, but can’t hide his current political weakness.
5. Thousands march in Venezuela to demand President’s ouster ​(September 1​st​
, 2016)
Nicholas Casey, ​The New York Times
The piece describes the march of Sept. 1​st​
2016, when the biggest demonstration against
Maduro’s presidency thus far, the so called “taking of Caracas,” took place. A crowd composed
of people from the whole country demonstrated in the streets of the capital, asking for the
President’s ouster: the economic crisis (worsened by spring’s droughts), a rising crime rate and
the political repression carried out by the regime have led to disastrous consequences for people.
Maduro has tried to respond by inciting his red­dressed military supporters to
demonstrate, and six international journalists were barred from entering the country. One of
them, Jim Wyss, was even imprisoned for a short time. In this chaotic context, food supplies are
transported under armed guards and many areas of the country are by now at the mercy of
criminal groups. However, none of the promises made by the opposition (free market, release of
jailed political leaders, referendum) have been accomplished, mainly because of the anti­reform
measures enforced by Maduro, who has also enforced his presidential powers despite the protests
of the Congress.

11. 5. Pre-interviews
Guest One: Braulio Jatar ​(interviewed by Anna Sutterer)
● Relevance to issue
○ Filmmaker on the front lines of the opposition protests since 2014.
○ His father, Braulio Jatar Alonso, was arrested for his coverage of the opposition
protest on September 1 and for money laundering.
○ Has been a supporter of the opposition movement since before he could
remember; his father is an editor with the online newspaper, Reporte
Confidencial; he is currently attending the New York Film Academy in
Manhattan.
● Political leaning
● Definitely opposition
● Venezuela has been getting worse and worse and these last two or three years
have been a catastrophe. We are at critical levels on everything, and have poverty,
inflation, crime rates are through the roof. We’re just in a horible state right now
and to me, there’s only one guilty party, or the most guilty party would have to be
the government, they literally control everything right now.
● “I try to be as open­minded as I can because I’ve seen a lot these last two years,
and I know that both sides can be right and wrong at the same time. I try not to
have an opinion, per se, I just try to film what’s happening and try to show it as I
saw it, as it actually happened.”
● How unified is this opposition movement? What happens if they get their election
recall?
○ “Right now it’s pretty united. I mean, it’s had its friction, but as of right now it’s
pretty united. There’s always going to be the “pro­vote” and the “pro­violence”
within the opposition, I mean the rift that there is between the different parties.

12. But right now everybody knows the best way out would be the recall. However,
you could see, like yesterday, they say there were about a million people on the
streets, and only a couple hundred or maybe a thousand actually tried to confront
the police and wanted that kind of exit to their problems. I’d say the majority of
the opposition is together and they know that their best way out is the recall.”
“The differences used to be a lot more noticeable, that’s the biggest change from
two years ago to now. Right now everybody has the mindset that this is the way
out and that they have to do it together.”
○ “As of right now, everyone is thinking about changing this government.”
● He sees the difference on ​Twitter​: The way the opposition members share things on
social media and talk about one another and talk about what they’ll do for the future.
● Demographic makeup​ on the pro­Maduro side
○ “Chavez invested a lot of time and a lot of money in social programs, giving
people basic education and houses and whatever. He just made a very big political
capital, like an important number of people flocked to him. And it’s very difficult
for people in low­income, because it is mainly people in low­income and
low­resources people, that were and are with that movement. It’s very difficult for
you to change their mindset when they have no access to Internet and no access to
proper education. Their strongest point has been that demographic:​ the poor, the
hungry​ and whatever. So, right now, since there’s a very important problem with
food shortages, you don’t have to see TV to feel there’s something wrong and
things aren’t as they should be. You can talk to them and they will say, ‘Look, I
was a Chavista, I loved Chavez, but this is wrong, and this isn’t what he promised
me. Maduro is doing things wrong.’ So we’re at a point where you don’t need to
be the most educated or the most resourceful or attend to news. You just need to
be living.”

13. ● How does Maduro’s socialist/leftist government contribute to ​high inflation​?
○ The government has ​hounded private companies​ from the start. Whoever
wouldn’t align with what they wanted to do would be seized. They’d take the
company away from them and make it public property, and those companies
would then just die out because they’d have bad administration.
○ So, when there were, like, 10 companies who did deodorant, now there’s only
one. And inflation because they just print money out like crazy when there’s
elections, because they need to pay everybody. They need to pay the cars that take
them and the billboards… They print out an absurd amount of money and there’s
no way to back it up.”
○ The current officials are used to having oil money backing up their campaigns,
but now an even bigger issue with the recall coming up because the price per
barrel is so low, they won’t be able to overcome the loss of trust in the people
(already lost pretty bad in these kinds of terms in parliamentary election on Dec 6
2015, opposition took 112 out of 167)
○ “I totally forgot about the government’s control of US Dollars, which is very
important. The only way to have access to money is by buying them from the
government, and you only have a limited number to buy. And you pay the price
that they determine. So prices are frozen at around 12bs a dollar, while in the
black market a dollar is worth 1000bs. This also creates shortages of basic needs
that are imported or used to produce here.”
Guest One: John Otis​ (interviewed by Jonah McKeown)
● Relevance ​to issue: Journalist for NPR and consultant for Committee to Protect
Journalists, was refused entry to Venezuela while trying to cover the Sept. 1 protests. Otis
is based in Bogota, Colombia and has covered the Andes region of South America for
NPR, The Wall Street Journal and TIME magazine for almost 20 years. He’s followed
Venezuelan politics since the start of Hugo Chavez’s regime in 1997.

14. ● What ​Chavez’s time​ was like, compared to now with Maduro
○ “I’ve been covering Venezuela since 1997 when Hugo Chavez was running for
president; I followed him around on his first campaign, and it’s pretty
understandable how he won back then, because the previous governments were all
just kind of upper­class Venezuelans who didn’t really pay any attention to poor
people, so it was very interesting to see Chavez take power and put his socialist
revolution in place. For nearly all the years I was covering him he was extremely
popular, so it’s quite interesting to see the new regime in place with Maduro’s
government, and just everything collapsing.”
● Social, economic and political crisis​ examples
○ “There’s been a massive “brain drain” of educated Venezuelans leaving the
country because university professors are now earning the equivalent of $50 a
month.
○ Dependency on oil (around 95% of their exports) makes the country’s
economy vulnerable to price shocks​.They don’t have the dollar income to
import things for production in­country. Hard­line socialist policies and strict
government control in the business world have created snowball effects.
● Experience in Caracas airport on August 31
○ Foreign reporters have needed to get visas and apply for ID card accreditation to
enter the country for the last few years. Government was more paranoid in the
Sept. 1 protest environment, so they stopped busses and blocked many people
from getting into Caracas.
○ Otis and a few Colombian journalists and a French correspondent for Le Monde
were stopped at the airport. They were told to sign papers saying they were
“inadmissible citizens” and then were made to wait for six hours for the next
flight to Colombia
● Journalism in Venezuela

15. ○ “... the main problem is with Venezuelan journalists themselves because this
government wants to control the media, so there’s been all kinds of problems such
as ​the government not renewing TV and radio licenses, forcing these
broadcasters out of business for not toeing the official party line​, there’s a
newsprint shortage and they don’t have the dollar for it, so the local media they
are really getting hit on all sides.”
● How the​ United States​ is viewed by Venezuelans
○ “If you talk to people in the ruling socialist party, they see the United States as
this kind of overbearing neighbor to the north that’s always trying to intervene in
Venezuelan affairs, to some extent they have a point, the US was very hostile
toward the Chavez regime, they didn’t actively support the coup that almost
ousted Chavez in 2003 but they applauded it. But as more and more people turn
against the government, they’re a lot more sympathetic toward the US point of
view, and there’s a lot of people realizing that the Chavez revolution has really
gone off the rails, and there’s a lot of the things the US has said has turned out to
be true, not all of them, but the criticisms of the Chavez and Maduro governments
as being authoritarian and cracking down on press freedom.”
● Venezuela ​relationship with Colombia
○ “The relationship up there on the border right now is really bizarre because you
have ​Venezuelans streaming across the border to buy food in Colombia​. It
used to be the other way around because a lot of basic food items like rice and
beans were a lot cheaper in Venezuela but now you can’t get them any more
because of these big food shortages, so you have all these Venezuelans pouring
across the border to buy food in Colombia and bring it back.”
○ Colombia is concerned about the stream of refugees. Also hopeful that the peace
talks the Venezuelan socialist government has helped to promote in Colombia

16. with the FARC will be successful (peace deal to be signed Sept. 26)
● Thoughts about the current ​political situation
○ Although Maduro is at 20% popularity, his government might prevail because he
controls the electoral council and his strategy is to hold the recall next year so his
vice president could take over. If that doesn’t happen, the other scenario is a
possible military intervention to force Maduro out​ and a transitional
government would come in.
Guest Two: Patrick Duddy ​(interviewed by Jonah McKeown)
● Relevance ​to issue: Was the U.S. Ambassador to Venezuela from 2007 to 2010 and is
now the director of the Center for Latin American and Caribbean Studies at Duke
University.
● Experience ​as ambassador to Venezuela
○ Part of Chavez’s dialogue with his public and the people of the region was
antagonistic to the U.S. and President Bush. Duddy was expelled from Venezuela
and proclaimed a “persona non grata” on Sept. 11, 2008.
○ “If you Google president Chavez’s speech in which he announced my expulsion,
it was one of the most startlingly crude speeches by a head of state I’ve ever
heard.”
○ “I was threatened with expulsion the first time because I regretted we were not
able to follow up on that conversation, and I thought the drug traffickers were
taking advantage of the gap that had opened up between the US and Venezuela.”
● How much economic failure is due to the country’s policies, and how much is due to the
oil prices dropping​?
○ “At the heart of the difficulties was and is their failure to invest wisely during
the period of windfall profits from record high oil prices.”
○ The model was never going to be stable: too much nationalizing and expropriating
industries= “I think both suppressed their productivity and effectively spiked their
productivity, but it also discouraged foreign direct investments, or even domestic
investments.” So when oil prices dropped, the weaknesses have been revealed.
■ “Even some of the leftist ideologues who provided some of the
frameworks for Bolivarian socialism in the 21st century, have admitted

17. that the gov is behaving in ways that appear to be catastrophically
incompetent.”
○ “Why has the current dip in oil prices been so devastating for Venezuela, as it has
not been so devastating for other oil producing countries? And that’s where we
come back to the issue of capital investment. A country like Saudi Arabia, if the
price of a barrel declines, they can simply pump more to keep revenue steady.
They also have greater reserves. The one thing they can do that is related to their
oil sector is they can simply open the spigot. ​Venezuela can’t because they
haven’t invested in the oil sector appropriately, and according to their own
numbers, they’re actually producing less oil today than they did when
Chavez was elected in 1998.”
● About ​Maduro’s attitude toward the U.S​.
○ Ironic because the U.S. continues to be Venezuela’s biggest market: “The
collapse of the currency, sky high inflation, the difficulty of accessing hard
currency, have created difficulties in every sector. And many major international
businesses have had to take immense write downs because they have simply not
be able to make a profit.” So many have had to temporarily shut down operations
or withdraw.
● Maduro’s plan to fix the economic crisis
○ Radicalize: double down on the economic approach they currently have.
● What ​should happen​ to fix the economic crisis
○ Abandon the current approach
○ Stabilize the inflation and currency
○ Jump­start the private business sector
● Foreign relations
○ Recent international news suggests that countries that supported Chavista have
moved away from them
○ Even Cuba, Chile and Brazil have lost faith in the Venezuelan government’s
ability to generate income to sustain themselves
Guest Three: Jennifer Cyr ​(Interviewed by Jonah McKeown)
● Relevance to issue
○ Master’s Degree in Latin American Studies and PhD in Political Sciences. She’s
writing a book about old political parties in the new political era.

18. ○ Lately been monitoring political parties that make up the opposition,
antichavismo as a movement but also as a group identity, and government
dynamics
● Who are the opposition?
○ Students, former political leaders, increasingly the poor, who are angry
about chavism.
○ Mix of old parties and new ones:​ Primera Justicia (Enrique Capriles) and
Acción Democrática.
○ Just had a major victory in January 2015; taken over a majority, close to two
thirds
○ They were able to appoint the president of the National Assembly: Henry Ramos
■ Two primary opposition candidates: From Primera Justicia, Julio Jorges;
and from Accion Democratica, Henry Ramos.
■ Ramos is seen as a ​relic of the past, ​because his party is older. But he has
seen and endured more political adversity.
■ Primera Justicia is the more visible head of the opposition​, while AD
is more behind the scenes.
■ There are other parties/leaders who don’t think the democratic option is
the best way to remove Maduro from power
● Leopoldo Lopez, who is now in prison: María Corina Machado
● Lopez seemed to think by “martyring” himself he would advance
his cause, but it’s kind of pushed him back in a way.
● Roots​ of the current political conflict
○ Newer political party has its roots in a 1990s NGO
○ Accion Democratica was rejected in the late 1990s
■ Represent a political elite from the past
■ First electoral victory in the national assembly
● To what extent are Chavez/Maduro’s socialist policies to blame for the various problems
in the country?
○ Able to fund a lot of projects thanks to oil boom; became increasingly costly to
continue socialist policies.
○ Chavez famously started giving away washing machines prior to one of his
elections.
● What needs to be done to help the current situation?
○ We need to see it get worse before it gets better
○ Maduro has not shown himself to be willing to negotiate
○ Good will to work on a plan of dialogue; can we really sit down with the other
side?
○ Worst case Maduro uses the military to put down the opposition

19. ● Encourages listeners to be critical of the news they hear about Venezuela
○ “It’s tempting to view the government as bad, bad, bad and the opposition as these
heroes, but it’s much more complicated than that.”
Guest Four: Gabriel Hetland (​interviewed by Anna Sutterer)
● Relevance ​to issue: Wrote his dissertation on participatory democracy in Latin American
politics, with a special emphasis on Venezuela. His work has been featured in news
outlets ​The Nation and ​teleSUR.
● Political leaning​ regarding Venezuela
○ Interest in Chavismo has been longstanding because of the many social policy
gains his regime made:​ “They really dramatically reduced inequality, they
really dramatically reduced poverty, Venezuela became the most equitable in
the Latin America region.”
○ “I’m increasingly critical of the government right now for their sort of various
errors that they have in terms of policy and their inability and unwillingness to do
what it takes to solve the crisis. But I think that, given the current crisis and all the
negatives going on, we shouldn’t lose sight of the positives that Chavismo was
able to achieve for a number of years. The current crisis doesn’t discount those
positives, it sheds light on certain underlying contradictions that weren’t
addressed earlier on, ​but it doesn’t take away from the gains that Chavez was
able to achieve while he was in office.”
● Opposition movement’s ​level of unity
○ Since 2013 there’s been a more violent faction rising with leaders like Leopoldo
Lopez. These groups have some blood on their hands (see violent protests in
2014)
○ Since the big victory for the opposition in the legislature in December 2015,
there’s been more discussion about different strategies to get Maduro out of
power, more legal measures like the recall referendum.
○ BUT “Behind the scenes there’s sort of this ​plausible speculation that many
factions or certain leaders within the opposition don’t want to take power
right now, that they’re perfectly happy to have the referendum next year.
Because Venezuela is in the middle of a very difficult crisis, and it’s going to take
quite a lot to get them out of this crisis, and it’s not going to be good for
whoever’s in office at the time. So they think having two years in office in the
middle of a very bad crisis with presidential elections coming up at the end of
2018 would be very difficult. The reason that speculation is plausible is that the
opposition waited a really long time to actually get started on the recall process.

20. They could have gotten the groundwork going in December but they didn’t until
April, when they filed the initial paperwork (only 9 mo. to get through the
difficult/long process).”
■ “Unfortunately I think some ​leaders (speculation relates to them, the ones
doing the political calculations, not the citizens in the street) in the
opposition are gleeful at the horrible state of the nation, they wouldn’t say
that, but politically it’s a huge opening for them.”
● Any ​hopes ​for the future economic and political situation
○ Had some hope about fixing the currency policy with the ideas of the former
Minister of Industry and Trade, Miguel Perez­Abad, but Maduro dismissed him in
mid­August.
○ If the opposition takes power, he hopes there will be enough popular movement
by the people who thrived under some of the Chavez policies to keep some of
those practices and organizations: “I think there will be a really strong popular
movement that will have some ability to prevent the right (the assumed faction to
take power) from totally rolling back the gains that remained under Chavismo …
but it’s going to be a difficult period for a number of years moving forward and I
don’t have a tremendous amount of hope at the moment.”
Guest Four: Phillip Gunson (​interviewed by Federico Maccioni)
● Relevance​: Andes Project Senior analyst, with more than 40 years of experience in South
America as a reporter for news media such as The Guardian and The Economist. At the
moment he resides in Caracas and generally focuses on Venezuela’s political context and
Conflict resolution.
● Current situation in Venezuela
­ “The crisis itself is a very explosive combination of economic, social, political,
humanitarian crisis over rolled into one.”
­ “​Perhaps more than 80% of the electorate want to get rid of the president as soon as
possible, and the government is doing everything possible through its control of the
institutions, particularly, the Electoral Council, the Supreme Court, to stop the election
happening, to delay.”
● Unity of the Opposition

21. ­ “​The opposition is a coalition, an alliance of more than 2000 different parties, of which
four or so are the ones enabled to take the decisions. There are divisions within them, but
at the same time, they recognize that the less they remain united it’s going to be
impossible for them to challenge the government and every time they got into an election
divided, they suffered the consequences.”
­ “ The main thing that the opposition has in its favor is popular support obviously, with
the possibility to organize very important demonstrations.”
­ “It also has increasing support in the International Community, but these factors taken
together are not enough to force the government to act, because for Maduro, this is an
existential issue.”
● Effect of Protests and concrete possibility of Referendum
­ “It’s very difficult for the opposition to force the Referendum because the government is,
institutionally, in a very strong position. It can use its control of Courts, of all institutions,
including the Security Forces to prevent that happening.”
­ “It did have an immediate effect in the sense that it demonstrated the enormous feeling
against the government, but the problem of the opposition is to maintain the momentum,
because Maduro simply ignores public opinion, and the only thing the opposition has to
do would be a kind of frontal attack on the government to get much on the presidential
palace.”
­ “However, in the past, that has led to injuries and deaths, like it happened in 2002, when
a lot of people were killed, and the government had shown that it was willing to send
security forces.”
● Influence of Chavez’s former government
­ “This is the result of lots of very bad policy choices over many years, but Maduro has
also refused to change course and he’s stuck to his policies.”

22. ­ “The most damaging thing Chavez did, was to strangle the economy with extremely
severe controls of all kinds: price controls, exchange controls, expropriation of private
property, millions of hectares of farmland.”
­ “Thousands of companies have disappeared, and now the government has to produce
everything, which is the main reason why at the moment, Venezuela’s people have
difficulties to eat, no medicines in the pharmacies.”
­ “It’s not entirely Maduro’s fault, but having said that, he has been perhaps the most inept,
incompetent president in Venezuela’s history. Several times, it looked as he was going to
modify policies to improve the situation, but every time he has failed in doing it.”
● Relationship with Colombia
­ “There are important influences on Venezuela: guerrillas are going to be demobilized, but
politically, they will simply continue with the business that they have developed in over
70 years, which is essentially drugs smuggling.”
­ “This is going to worsen an already bad situation in Venezuela, with organized crime.”
­ “There is the political impact, in terms of the fact that Venezuela helped the FARC army
transportation for example. Now, maybe, the Colombian government can challenge the
government of Maduro, also because they are ideologically very different.”
● Venezuelan context within two years
­ “I think there is a change coming, and is impossible for President Maduro to remain in
charge, because he doesn’t only face a tremendous opposition of the electorate as a
whole, but is also very unpopular in certain military ambiences.”
● Role of the Army
­ “​The question is, who will be managing the change? The logic is that the army is going to
be very influential in that set.​ ​I don’t think the vice­President will succeed Maduro,
because his figure is not an elective position, is appointed by the president. There are
many factions that are trying to get their man, their woman into the vice­president seat in

23. that moment, and I think that the people that have the best chances to do that are the
Army.”

24. 6. Organization of the show
Guest 1 (alone): Braulio Jatar, filmmaker at front lines of the opposition protests around
Caracas
Possible Questions:
● Tell us about your goals when you enter a protest scene? How do you approach the
situation?
● Describe the kinds of scenes you’ve witnessed in the last two years. Have many been
violent, or most peaceful? How many large and how many small gatherings? How do the
opposition and pro­Maduro citizens interact?
● Who are the people on each side? What are their main tactics to persuade others or
express themselves?
● Why have some stayed pro­Maduro?
● How united is the opposition and is there a concrete possibility of reaching the
referendum, even though Maduro is trying to avoid it?
● Can you give some examples of the Maduro regime’s lack of transparency or
wrongdoing?
Guest 1 (alone): John Otis, NPR foreign correspondent based in Bogota, Colombia
Possible Questions:
● Give us just a sense of what it’s like for the ​citizens of Venezuela​ right now.
● What is the situation like for ​foreign journalists​ who are trying to cover Venezuela?
● What are some of the challenges faced by ​local journalists​ in Venezuela?
● Describe your experience being turned away at the Caracas airport on Sept. 1. What are
your plans now for eventually re­entering the country?
● How do ​Colombia’s​ recent peace talks with the FARC and opened borders connect with
Venezuela’s situation?

25. Guest 2 (panel): Patrick Duddy, former U.S. Ambassador to Venezuela
*NOTE: ask for brief, simplified answers (tends to get very descriptive and technical in
explanations)
Possible Questions:
● What has characterized ​relations between Venezuela and the US​ in past years and
currently?
● How did Venezuela get to the point of ­8% economy growth and 700% inflation?
(Key Q. for Duddy)
● How could the Chavez and Maduro governments have ​better invested​ the country’s rich
oil reserves?
● What needs to happen short­term and long­term to ​fix​ the current economic woes,
including the food and health care shortages?
● What’s the ​likeliest political development​ in Venezuela, if the movement for the recall
referendum succeeds? Fails?
Guest 3 (panel): Jennifer Cyr, Assistant Professor of Government and Public Policy and
Latin American Studies at University of Arizona
Possible Questions:
● [Anything about the opposition movement, because this relates directly to her expertise]
● How organized is the opposition movement?
● What parties and leaders are a part of the opposition? Who are these people? ​(Key
Q. for Cyr)
● How are the opposition and the government relating to each other at the moment?
Guest 4 (panel): Gabriel Hetland, professor of Sociology with dissertation research in how
citizens participate politically in Latin America/Venezuela
Possible Questions:

26. ● Talking about the former government, do you think that Chavez’s ​choices in the past​,
like those regarding the management of oil reserves, are now influencing Maduro’s
mandate?
● How ​unified is the opposition movement?​ What have been their biggest challenges
internally and externally?
● What’s the ​future of Chavez’s socialism​ after these few years of demonstrations? Is it
possible for President Maduro to recover from this loss of credibility?
● What ​needs to be done​ for the citizens to get their basic needs met, while the leaders of
the parties fight for idealistic change? Can the food and health shortage needs be met
while there is such a large political question mark looming?