This document analyzes India's chances of winning the T20 World Cup through a statistical analysis of their previous performances. It calculates that India's average score in winning matches is 169 runs based on an average run rate of 8.463 runs per over. It then estimates that with the current team, India could score an average of 162 runs per innings. There is a 35% chance that India could win a match scoring 162 runs in 20 overs, based on comparing their average run rate to previous winning run rates. The document recommends changes to the batting order and focusing key players to increase the scoring rate above the average required for victory.

1. Can India prevail?
A statistical analysis of the ongoing T20 worldcup
3/21/2014
Submitted by:
Sugyan Panda, SIOM

2. Can India Prevail?
For the IndiancricketfansIndiahas alwaysbeenamostfavourednationforany cricketcup.
The winningof firsteverT20 worldcuphas increasedtheirexpectationbymanyfolds.Afterthe first
one Indiacouldn’tperformuptotheirexpectationinanyotherT20 worldcup.
Here is an analysisshowingthe potential of the currentteamto winanother worldcup.The stepby
stepanalysisrepresentsthe currentsituation,whocouldbe the possiblekeyplayersandwhat
changescan be done inthe currentway of playing.
The Process:
Step 1: Average total score in one innings in winning causes
How isit calculated?
 Complete dataforthe winningcausesare taken
 Average runsperoverwas calculated
 Average total score for1 inningswascalculated (20*avgrpo)
Thismethodof calculatingthe average score removesthe no.of overIndia battedwhen
theyplayedin2nd
inningsanditalsoremovesthe biasnessarisesdue tosituational
batting.
Inferences:
 The average RPO calculatedwas8.463 witha standard deviationof 1.176
 The average total score inone inningscanbe calculatedas= 20 * 8.463 = 169.23
 So,total inningsscore of 169 will increase the chancesof winningthe matchfor
India.
The averagetotal scoreof Indian team in one innings in
winning causes
Possibleaveragetotalscorethat can be scored by the
currentIndian team in one innings
What could be the possibleresults and whatwould
be the strategy

3. 11109876
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
RPO
Frequency
Mean 8.463
StDev 1.176
N 25
Histogram of RPO
Normal
(Minitab output for winning causes)
Team Score Overs RPO Inns Result Opposition
India 218/4 20 10.9 1 won v England
India 211/4 19.1 11 2 won v Sri Lanka
India 202/4 19.4 10.27 2 won v Australia
India 192/5 20 9.6 1 won v Pakistan
India 188/5 20 9.4 1 won v Australia
India 186/5 20 9.3 1 won v SouthAfrica
India 180/5 20 9 1 won v Bangladesh
India 174/7 19.2 9 2 won v Sri Lanka
India 170/4 20 8.5 1 won v England
India 168/6 20 8.4 1 won v SouthAfrica
India 167/3 18.1 9.19 2 won v Australia
India 159/6 20 7.95 1 won v WestIndies
India 159/5 20 7.95 1 won v Afghanistan
India 158/5 17.5 8.85 2 won v England
India 157/5 20 7.85 1 won v Pakistan
India 155/3 20 7.75 1 won v Sri Lanka
India 153/5 20 7.65 1 won v SouthAfrica
India 152/6 20 7.6 1 won v SouthAfrica
India 144/3 18 8 2 won v Zimbabwe
India 135/2 19.4 6.86 2 won v Australia
India 129/2 17 7.58 2 won v Pakistan
India 127/4 19.5 6.4 2 won v SouthAfrica
India 116/3 14.5 7.82 2 won v Afghanistan
India 113/2 15.3 7.29 2 won v Ireland
India 112/4 15 7.46 2 won v Zimbabwe

4. (Average RPO in different causes)
Step 2: Possible total score that can be scored by the current Indian team in
one innings
How isit calculated?
 Collectthe datacontainingthe average score andstrike rate of each player
 Calculate the weightedaverage strikerate forthe team (= avg score * strike rate/total avg
score)
 Calculate the total score that can be scored in20 overswiththisweightedaverage strike
rate (= wght avgstrike rate * 120/100)
 Addthe extrasthat Indiacouldgetif theybatfor 20 overs.
Player
No. of
Innings
Played Total Score Average Ball Faced Strike rate
avg score *
stikerate
Yuvraj
Singh 32 868 33.38 567 153.08 5109.8104
SK Raina 33 859 33.03 630 136.34 4503.3102
MS Dhoni 40 772 32.16 672 114.88 3694.5408
V Kohli 19 587 34.52 450 130.44 4502.7888
RG Sharma 29 539 28.36 424 127.12 3605.1232
AMRahane 7 174 24.85 142 122.53 3044.8705
RA Jadeja 10 74 10.57 88 84.09 888.8313
R Ashwin 5 53 26.5 44 120.45 3191.925
S Dhawan 2 37 18.5 30 123.33 2281.605
SUM Total 241.87 30822.8052
6.5
7
7.5
8
8.5
9
Total
RPO
lost
tied
won

5. weightedavg strike rate 127.4354207
Possible score 152.88
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Average
strike rate
AM Rahane
MS Dhoni
R Ashwin
RA Jadeja
RG Sharma
S Dhawan
SK Raina
V Kohli
Yuvraj Singh
153.1
136.3
114.9
130.4 127.1 122.5
84.1
120.5 123.3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
Strike rate
Strike rate

6. Extras
Indiahas received6.1%of their total score in extras.
So adding6% of score to the above calculatedaverage score,we canconclude thatat an average
Indiacouldgetan average of 9 runs as extras.
Inferences:
Total possible score in20 overs= 153 + 9 = 162
Thisanalysis showswith the currentbattingline upIndiacouldpossiblyscore atan average of 162
runs perinnings.
Step 3: Strategy
ObviouslyIndiahasto score fasterthan the average strike rate towinthe matches.Sothe keypoints
theyshouldfocusonare:
 Change the orderof battingline upbyputtingR. Jadeja(strike rate of 84.1) into7th
or 8th
place.
 Give the keyplayers(Yuvraj Singh,ViratKohli andSureshRaina) better opportunitiesso
theycan playwithoutanypressure.
 Restotherplayersshouldfocusmore onscoringa little fasterinsteadof focusingmore on
scoringhighpersonal score.
What is the probability that India could win a game with a total score
of 162 per innings
13121110987654
0.35
0.30
0.25
0.20
0.15
0.10
0.05
0.00
X
Density
8.1 8.463
Distribution Plot
Normal, Mean=8.463, StDev=1.176

7. 162 runsin an inningsisequivalentto8.1 runs perover.
The average winningRPOforIndiais8.463
Calculatingthe Zvalue fromit
𝑍 =
X−Mean
Std Deviation
= 0.308
So area underthe curve = 0.148
0.5-0.148 = 0.352
So there is 35% ChancethatIndia could win the match with a score of 162 in
20 overs.
5 questions that could be askedby customer (Customer -
Coach/Captain/Selector)
1. Who shouldbe takeninthe teamand whoshouldbe consideredinplaying11?
2. What shouldbe the batting/bowlingorder?
3. What are the otherfactors that affectthe team’sperformance?
4. Shouldtheygofor bowlingorbattingif theywinthe tossand whatare the factors influence
thisdecisions?
5. What are the weaknessesof playersof against team?
Source: www.espncricinfo.com