This document presents an analysis of COVID-19 data from France, Italy, and Quebec to estimate the number of deaths likely to occur in Quebec by April 8, 2020. Factors like respiratory capacity, smoking rates, and pollution levels that can influence outcomes are described. Correlations between cases in France and Italy are used to estimate that Quebec could see 455 deaths, based on applying France's death ratio to Quebec's case numbers which have followed France's curve with a delay. The analysis concludes that pollution and smoking may impact death numbers, and containment measures could be strengthened in Quebec.