The document discusses the possibility that ISIS may shift its focus to attacks in Europe as it loses ground in Syria and Iraq. As ISIS weakens militarily, insurgent groups have historically resorted to increased terrorist attacks. There are concerns that ISIS may call on followers to carry out attacks in Europe rather than joining the fighting in Syria and Iraq. While the Balkans are not a primary target, the document notes that hundreds of foreign fighters have returned to the region from Syria and Iraq, raising the risk of attacks. Macedonian authorities have increased security but preventing all attacks would be difficult given the many soft targets. Remaining vigilant will be important as threats evolve.
National media heavily criticized Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki following ISIS's seizure of Mosul in June 2014. Publications like CNN, Al Jazeera America, and TIME accused Maliki of consolidating power, neglecting Sunni factions, and exacerbating sectarian tensions, thereby enabling ISIS's rise. This widespread condemnation from influential outlets increased pressure on Maliki, and he resigned in August 2014 in a historic transfer of power. The document analyzes this media coverage and its impact in escalating calls for Maliki to step down after his leadership failures allowed ISIS to gain control in Iraq.
The article "ISIS - The New Threat to World Peace?" by Meera Dolasia discusses the origins and funding of ISIS. ISIS was created in 2011 from offshoots of al Qaeda during the Syrian civil war, gaining strength by taking territory in Syria and Iraq. The article explains that ISIS funds their activities through oil sales, ransoms from kidnappings, and looting artifacts, generating around $3 million daily.
The invasion of Ukraine by Russia has caused a humanitarian crisis not seen in Europe since the Second World War. A second crisis of major proportions will follow if Ukraine has no harvest in 2022.
https://youtu.be/2bYaEM2NyR4
El documento describe un expediente UFO que contiene dos capítulos. El primer capítulo presenta la aplicación web utilizada para crear historietas. El segundo capítulo se titula "Limpieza Total" pero no proporciona más detalles sobre su contenido.
Este documento describe conceptos fundamentales sobre la materia y su clasificación. Define la materia como todo lo que ocupa un espacio en el universo y tiene masa e inercia. Explica que la materia se clasifica en sustancias puras como elementos y compuestos, y mezclas formadas por la combinación de sustancias puras. También diferencia la materia viva de la inerte.
National media heavily criticized Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki following ISIS's seizure of Mosul in June 2014. Publications like CNN, Al Jazeera America, and TIME accused Maliki of consolidating power, neglecting Sunni factions, and exacerbating sectarian tensions, thereby enabling ISIS's rise. This widespread condemnation from influential outlets increased pressure on Maliki, and he resigned in August 2014 in a historic transfer of power. The document analyzes this media coverage and its impact in escalating calls for Maliki to step down after his leadership failures allowed ISIS to gain control in Iraq.
The article "ISIS - The New Threat to World Peace?" by Meera Dolasia discusses the origins and funding of ISIS. ISIS was created in 2011 from offshoots of al Qaeda during the Syrian civil war, gaining strength by taking territory in Syria and Iraq. The article explains that ISIS funds their activities through oil sales, ransoms from kidnappings, and looting artifacts, generating around $3 million daily.
The invasion of Ukraine by Russia has caused a humanitarian crisis not seen in Europe since the Second World War. A second crisis of major proportions will follow if Ukraine has no harvest in 2022.
https://youtu.be/2bYaEM2NyR4
El documento describe un expediente UFO que contiene dos capítulos. El primer capítulo presenta la aplicación web utilizada para crear historietas. El segundo capítulo se titula "Limpieza Total" pero no proporciona más detalles sobre su contenido.
Este documento describe conceptos fundamentales sobre la materia y su clasificación. Define la materia como todo lo que ocupa un espacio en el universo y tiene masa e inercia. Explica que la materia se clasifica en sustancias puras como elementos y compuestos, y mezclas formadas por la combinación de sustancias puras. También diferencia la materia viva de la inerte.
A VIEW FROM THE CT FOXHOLE Richard WaltonAn interview w.docxbartholomeocoombs
A VIEW FROM THE CT FOXHOLE:
Richard Walton
An interview with the head of Counter Terrorism
Command at the London Metropolitan Police
FEATURE COMMENTARY
The Threat in
2016
daniel benjamin and steven simon
Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Objective • Relevant • Rigorous | January 2016 • Volume 9, Issue 1
v
Editor in Chief
Paul Cruickshank
Managing Editor
John Watling
EDITORIAL BOARD
Colonel Cindy R. Jebb, Ph.D.
Department Head
Dept. of Social Sciences (West Point)
Colonel Suzanne Nielsen, Ph.D.
Deputy Department Head
Dept. of Social Sciences (West Point)
Lieutenant Colonel Bryan Price, Ph.D.
Director, CTC
Brian Dodwell
Deputy Director, CTC
CONTACT
Combating Terrorism Center
U.S. Military Academy
607 Cullum Road, Lincoln Hall
West Point, NY 10996
Phone: (845) 938-8495
Email: [email protected]
Web: www.ctc.usma.edu/sentinel/
SUPPORT
The Combating Terrorism Center
would like to express its gratitude
to its financial supporters, for without
their support and shared vision
of the Center products like the
CTC Sentinel could not be produced.
If you are interested in learning
more about how to support the Combating
Terrorism Center, please visit http://www.
ctc.usma.edu or call Allison Barry at West
Point’s Association of Graduates at
845-446-1561.
SUBMISSIONS
The CTC Sentinel welcomes submissions.
Please contact us at [email protected]
The views expressed in this report are
those of the authors and not of the U.S.
Military Academy, the Department of the
Army, or any other agency of the U.S.
Government.
Cover: German police guard the Munich
railway station during the New Year’s Eve
terror alert. GETTY
FEATURE COMMENTARY
1 The Global Terror Threat in 2016: A Forecast
daniel benjamin and steven simon
INTERVIEW
5 A View from the CT Foxhole: An Interview with Richard Walton, Head,
Counter Terrorism Command, London Metropolitan Police
paul cruickshank
ANALYSIS
10 Hezbollah’s Calculus after the Iran Nuclear Deal
magnus ranstorp
14 Al-Qa`ida and the Islamic State Benefit as Yemen War Drags On
gregory johnsen
18 The Islamic State and WMD: Assessing the Future Threat
stephen hummel
22 The Hotel Attacks and Militant Realignment in the Sahara-Sahel
Region
andrew lebovich
BRIEFINGS
29 The Jakarta Attack and the Islamic State Threat to Indonesia
kirsten e. schulze
Our first issue of the year forecasts how the global terrorist threat may
evolve in 2016. Two months on from the Paris attacks and with deadly
attacks already perpetrated in Istanbul, Jakarta, and Ouagadougou,
there are storm clouds overhead. In our cover story Daniel Benjamin
and Steven Simon predict that continued progress in the campaign against the Islamic State in
Iraq and Syria could see the group double down in 2016 with increased attacks in Europe, Russia,
and Turkey as well as possibly Lebanon and Jordan. But they assess that an .
The document provides an overview of the ongoing migrant crisis in Calais, France, where thousands of migrants have gathered hoping to cross the English Channel into the UK. It discusses the complex political and social issues surrounding the crisis. Specifically, it examines the disparate media portrayals of migrants as both criminals and victims, questions the motivations of migrants in risking their lives to travel to Europe, and analyzes the political rhetoric used on both sides of the debate. The crisis is portrayed as a much broader issue for the European Union due to migration pressures across the entire continent.
This document discusses the growing threat of ISIS and how it has become directly connected to threats in Australia. It notes that ISIS has been urging supporters around the world to attack enemies wherever they are through its online magazines. Australian intelligence agencies have intercepted communications showing the connection between foreign fighters traveling to Syria and Iraq and homegrown extremism in Australia. The raising of the terror threat level and recent counter-terrorism raids in Australia reflect this increased threat from both foreign fighters and lone actors being inspired by groups like ISIS. To address the threat, the document argues that military and police responses alone are not enough and that a broader community effort is needed.
Catholic Distance University Principles of Terrorism Discussion.docxwrite12
1. The document discusses potential terrorist targets in the United States, including a nuclear power plant, mosques, synagogues, and black churches. It also mentions the Egyptian pyramids as a potential target.
2. Al-Qaeda and ISIS are still considered the two most credible terrorist threats to the US. The document discusses how their competition for resources and legitimacy could increase the likelihood of attacks in the US.
3. Three potential high-impact terrorist target types mentioned are the healthcare industry, media industry, and retail industry. Attacks on these soft targets could cause mass casualties, economic damage, and social disruption.
Catholic Distance University Principles of Terrorism Discussion.docxsdfghj21
1. The document discusses potential terrorist targets in the United States, including a nuclear power plant, mosques/synagogues/black churches, and soft civilian targets like hospitals, media outlets, and shopping centers. Attacking these types of targets could cause mass casualties, economic damage, and social unrest.
2. Al-Qaeda and ISIS remain serious terrorist threats to the US. Their competition for resources and supporters could increase the likelihood of attacks. Technological advances have expanded terrorists' capabilities.
3. Three potential high-impact target types discussed are the healthcare system, media industry, and retail sector. Crippling any of these could incite fear, economic harm, and rally support for the terrorist
The growing threat of lone wolf terrorism is posing new challenges to security and intelligence agencies around the world, particularly as terrorist groups such as the Islamic State (IS) utilize social media and technology to recruit new members and inspire new attacks. Media reports have increasingly used the term “lone wolf” in a wide variety of contexts, but this term generally refers to an individual or small cell inspired to execute an attack in the name of an ideology or terrorist group independent of any connection to the organization itself. Without direct links to or communication with a broader network, security and intelligence agencies may fail to detect and prevent plots from lone wolf terrorists, whose plans only become apparent once they are underway. Some plots have included one assailant supported by multiple collaborators sympathetic to the ideology or terrorist group and can be described in similar terms, even though they may not be pure lone wolf events—but are still tellingly lacking any direction or communication with the terrorist hierarchy. Nonetheless, terrorist organizations have encouraged lone wolves and small groups to execute attacks on their own, and recent trends suggest these types of attacks are likely to increase in 2016, as they have proven to be highly effective. While many different ideologies can inspire acts of lone wolf terrorism, this report primarily focuses on lone wolves in the context of IS and Islamist extremism.
the empire's warlike manoeuvres in the middle eastGRAZIA TANTA
The document provides an overview of recent Western military interventions in the Middle East, including Libya, Iraq, Afghanistan, and Syria. It summarizes the outcomes and failures of these interventions. It notes ongoing instability and violence in Libya and Iraq after Western withdrawal. In Afghanistan, it criticizes Western support for corruption and the growth of opium production. For Syria, it acknowledges repression but notes the opposition has taken up arms without widespread popular support.
The main challenge for risk managers currently is how to prepare companies for an increasingly threatening world in which Terrorism and political violence are real and changing threats.
Gyanm general awareness_issue_january_2016Grover's Gyanm
The document discusses the ongoing issues related to terrorism and the rise of extremist groups like ISIS. It makes the following key points:
1) Both Western countries and the Muslim world share blame for the current situation due to actions like the Iraq war, abuses at Guantanamo Bay, and the provocation over religious cartoons.
2) Defeating terrorist groups requires addressing issues like Islamophobia, radicalization of youth, and economic disparity through religious open-mindedness, upholding human rights, and prioritizing education.
3) The ISIS poses a new threat as an extremist group that considers other Muslims who disagree with it as apostates. Countering their ideology will be
ISIS uses sophisticated media and propaganda strategies to spread its messages and recruit supporters. They rely heavily on social media and the Internet to distribute high-quality videos, magazines, and other materials. While mainstream media outlets cover ISIS, they rely on the group's own materials due to the danger of reporting from ISIS territories. Experts argue that media needs to take a more critical approach and consider the harm caused by spreading ISIS propaganda. The longevity of ISIS will depend on both military efforts to defeat them and addressing the underlying ideological and socioeconomic factors contributing to their recruitment.
Chapter 5 Global TerrorismNONSTATE ADVERSARIES, FUNDAMENTALIST.docxbissacr
Chapter 5 Global Terrorism
NONSTATE ADVERSARIES, FUNDAMENTALIST RELIGIOUS EXTREMISM, AND WEAPONS ARE THREE FORCES OF GLOBAL TERRORISM, ALL REPRESENTED BY TALIBAN FIGHTERS IN AFGHANISTAN.
Learning Objectives
1. 5.1Recognize that terrorism is a contentious issue that becomes hopelessly muddled by political and military considerations
2. 5.2Review the factors that are conducive to terrorism
3. 5.3Identify the goals, strategies, and weapons of terrorism
4. 5.4Identify the sources of funds that are used for financing terrorism
5. 5.5Review how terrorism adversely affects individuals, nations, and other groups
6. 5.6Summarize five kinds of terrorism
7. 5.7Examine the different ways of combating terrorism
8. 5.8Analyze the fundamental question about the balance between fighting terrorism and protecting democracy within the United States
The Boston Marathon bombing in April 2013 and the grisly murder of an off-duty British soldier in public in London in May 2013 that was filmed on mobile phones as the terrorist waited for police demonstrate a further shift away from centralized terrorist organizations to lone wolf terrorism. This kind of terrorism is conducted by self-motivated independent individuals. The attacks in Boston and London show how difficult it is to prevent lone wolf terrorism.
Successful U.S. counterterrorism measures against al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula and in Pakistan, combined with failed democratic transitions in the Middle East and North Africa, have contributed to the shift of global terrorism to Africa. Domestic terrorist groups such as Boko Haram, which means “Western education is sacrilege,” in northern Nigeria, collaborate with al-Qaeda. The Syrian civil war, chaos in Iraq following the U.S. withdrawal, and the disintegration of law and order in Libya have strengthened terrorism, most notably the group called the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS), which claimed credit for the November 13, 2015 terrorist massacre in Paris.
The growing use of armed drones for targeted killings of suspected terrorists in Yemen, Pakistan, Somalia, Niger, and elsewhere raises many controversial issues. Drones are effective weapons against terrorists. Even though they kill fewer civilians than alternative methods, the loss of innocent civilian lives undermines their use.
Edward Snowden’s leaking of documents showing extensive spying on Americans as well as people and governments around the world by the National Security Agency (NSA) as part of America’s counterterrorism strategy raised global concerns about the basic right to privacy. It also has far-reaching consequences for U.S. security and foreign policy.
Osama bin Laden, widely viewed as the embodiment of global terrorism, was killed by U.S. Special Forces on May 1, 2011, in Pakistan. Despite this significant development, the war on terrorism continues. Think about how the escalation of global terrorism affects our daily lives. This global problem is now virtually inseparable from pe.
A VIEW FROM THE CT FOXHOLE Richard WaltonAn interview w.docxbartholomeocoombs
A VIEW FROM THE CT FOXHOLE:
Richard Walton
An interview with the head of Counter Terrorism
Command at the London Metropolitan Police
FEATURE COMMENTARY
The Threat in
2016
daniel benjamin and steven simon
Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Objective • Relevant • Rigorous | January 2016 • Volume 9, Issue 1
v
Editor in Chief
Paul Cruickshank
Managing Editor
John Watling
EDITORIAL BOARD
Colonel Cindy R. Jebb, Ph.D.
Department Head
Dept. of Social Sciences (West Point)
Colonel Suzanne Nielsen, Ph.D.
Deputy Department Head
Dept. of Social Sciences (West Point)
Lieutenant Colonel Bryan Price, Ph.D.
Director, CTC
Brian Dodwell
Deputy Director, CTC
CONTACT
Combating Terrorism Center
U.S. Military Academy
607 Cullum Road, Lincoln Hall
West Point, NY 10996
Phone: (845) 938-8495
Email: [email protected]
Web: www.ctc.usma.edu/sentinel/
SUPPORT
The Combating Terrorism Center
would like to express its gratitude
to its financial supporters, for without
their support and shared vision
of the Center products like the
CTC Sentinel could not be produced.
If you are interested in learning
more about how to support the Combating
Terrorism Center, please visit http://www.
ctc.usma.edu or call Allison Barry at West
Point’s Association of Graduates at
845-446-1561.
SUBMISSIONS
The CTC Sentinel welcomes submissions.
Please contact us at [email protected]
The views expressed in this report are
those of the authors and not of the U.S.
Military Academy, the Department of the
Army, or any other agency of the U.S.
Government.
Cover: German police guard the Munich
railway station during the New Year’s Eve
terror alert. GETTY
FEATURE COMMENTARY
1 The Global Terror Threat in 2016: A Forecast
daniel benjamin and steven simon
INTERVIEW
5 A View from the CT Foxhole: An Interview with Richard Walton, Head,
Counter Terrorism Command, London Metropolitan Police
paul cruickshank
ANALYSIS
10 Hezbollah’s Calculus after the Iran Nuclear Deal
magnus ranstorp
14 Al-Qa`ida and the Islamic State Benefit as Yemen War Drags On
gregory johnsen
18 The Islamic State and WMD: Assessing the Future Threat
stephen hummel
22 The Hotel Attacks and Militant Realignment in the Sahara-Sahel
Region
andrew lebovich
BRIEFINGS
29 The Jakarta Attack and the Islamic State Threat to Indonesia
kirsten e. schulze
Our first issue of the year forecasts how the global terrorist threat may
evolve in 2016. Two months on from the Paris attacks and with deadly
attacks already perpetrated in Istanbul, Jakarta, and Ouagadougou,
there are storm clouds overhead. In our cover story Daniel Benjamin
and Steven Simon predict that continued progress in the campaign against the Islamic State in
Iraq and Syria could see the group double down in 2016 with increased attacks in Europe, Russia,
and Turkey as well as possibly Lebanon and Jordan. But they assess that an .
The document provides an overview of the ongoing migrant crisis in Calais, France, where thousands of migrants have gathered hoping to cross the English Channel into the UK. It discusses the complex political and social issues surrounding the crisis. Specifically, it examines the disparate media portrayals of migrants as both criminals and victims, questions the motivations of migrants in risking their lives to travel to Europe, and analyzes the political rhetoric used on both sides of the debate. The crisis is portrayed as a much broader issue for the European Union due to migration pressures across the entire continent.
This document discusses the growing threat of ISIS and how it has become directly connected to threats in Australia. It notes that ISIS has been urging supporters around the world to attack enemies wherever they are through its online magazines. Australian intelligence agencies have intercepted communications showing the connection between foreign fighters traveling to Syria and Iraq and homegrown extremism in Australia. The raising of the terror threat level and recent counter-terrorism raids in Australia reflect this increased threat from both foreign fighters and lone actors being inspired by groups like ISIS. To address the threat, the document argues that military and police responses alone are not enough and that a broader community effort is needed.
Catholic Distance University Principles of Terrorism Discussion.docxwrite12
1. The document discusses potential terrorist targets in the United States, including a nuclear power plant, mosques, synagogues, and black churches. It also mentions the Egyptian pyramids as a potential target.
2. Al-Qaeda and ISIS are still considered the two most credible terrorist threats to the US. The document discusses how their competition for resources and legitimacy could increase the likelihood of attacks in the US.
3. Three potential high-impact terrorist target types mentioned are the healthcare industry, media industry, and retail industry. Attacks on these soft targets could cause mass casualties, economic damage, and social disruption.
Catholic Distance University Principles of Terrorism Discussion.docxsdfghj21
1. The document discusses potential terrorist targets in the United States, including a nuclear power plant, mosques/synagogues/black churches, and soft civilian targets like hospitals, media outlets, and shopping centers. Attacking these types of targets could cause mass casualties, economic damage, and social unrest.
2. Al-Qaeda and ISIS remain serious terrorist threats to the US. Their competition for resources and supporters could increase the likelihood of attacks. Technological advances have expanded terrorists' capabilities.
3. Three potential high-impact target types discussed are the healthcare system, media industry, and retail sector. Crippling any of these could incite fear, economic harm, and rally support for the terrorist
The growing threat of lone wolf terrorism is posing new challenges to security and intelligence agencies around the world, particularly as terrorist groups such as the Islamic State (IS) utilize social media and technology to recruit new members and inspire new attacks. Media reports have increasingly used the term “lone wolf” in a wide variety of contexts, but this term generally refers to an individual or small cell inspired to execute an attack in the name of an ideology or terrorist group independent of any connection to the organization itself. Without direct links to or communication with a broader network, security and intelligence agencies may fail to detect and prevent plots from lone wolf terrorists, whose plans only become apparent once they are underway. Some plots have included one assailant supported by multiple collaborators sympathetic to the ideology or terrorist group and can be described in similar terms, even though they may not be pure lone wolf events—but are still tellingly lacking any direction or communication with the terrorist hierarchy. Nonetheless, terrorist organizations have encouraged lone wolves and small groups to execute attacks on their own, and recent trends suggest these types of attacks are likely to increase in 2016, as they have proven to be highly effective. While many different ideologies can inspire acts of lone wolf terrorism, this report primarily focuses on lone wolves in the context of IS and Islamist extremism.
the empire's warlike manoeuvres in the middle eastGRAZIA TANTA
The document provides an overview of recent Western military interventions in the Middle East, including Libya, Iraq, Afghanistan, and Syria. It summarizes the outcomes and failures of these interventions. It notes ongoing instability and violence in Libya and Iraq after Western withdrawal. In Afghanistan, it criticizes Western support for corruption and the growth of opium production. For Syria, it acknowledges repression but notes the opposition has taken up arms without widespread popular support.
The main challenge for risk managers currently is how to prepare companies for an increasingly threatening world in which Terrorism and political violence are real and changing threats.
Gyanm general awareness_issue_january_2016Grover's Gyanm
The document discusses the ongoing issues related to terrorism and the rise of extremist groups like ISIS. It makes the following key points:
1) Both Western countries and the Muslim world share blame for the current situation due to actions like the Iraq war, abuses at Guantanamo Bay, and the provocation over religious cartoons.
2) Defeating terrorist groups requires addressing issues like Islamophobia, radicalization of youth, and economic disparity through religious open-mindedness, upholding human rights, and prioritizing education.
3) The ISIS poses a new threat as an extremist group that considers other Muslims who disagree with it as apostates. Countering their ideology will be
ISIS uses sophisticated media and propaganda strategies to spread its messages and recruit supporters. They rely heavily on social media and the Internet to distribute high-quality videos, magazines, and other materials. While mainstream media outlets cover ISIS, they rely on the group's own materials due to the danger of reporting from ISIS territories. Experts argue that media needs to take a more critical approach and consider the harm caused by spreading ISIS propaganda. The longevity of ISIS will depend on both military efforts to defeat them and addressing the underlying ideological and socioeconomic factors contributing to their recruitment.
Chapter 5 Global TerrorismNONSTATE ADVERSARIES, FUNDAMENTALIST.docxbissacr
Chapter 5 Global Terrorism
NONSTATE ADVERSARIES, FUNDAMENTALIST RELIGIOUS EXTREMISM, AND WEAPONS ARE THREE FORCES OF GLOBAL TERRORISM, ALL REPRESENTED BY TALIBAN FIGHTERS IN AFGHANISTAN.
Learning Objectives
1. 5.1Recognize that terrorism is a contentious issue that becomes hopelessly muddled by political and military considerations
2. 5.2Review the factors that are conducive to terrorism
3. 5.3Identify the goals, strategies, and weapons of terrorism
4. 5.4Identify the sources of funds that are used for financing terrorism
5. 5.5Review how terrorism adversely affects individuals, nations, and other groups
6. 5.6Summarize five kinds of terrorism
7. 5.7Examine the different ways of combating terrorism
8. 5.8Analyze the fundamental question about the balance between fighting terrorism and protecting democracy within the United States
The Boston Marathon bombing in April 2013 and the grisly murder of an off-duty British soldier in public in London in May 2013 that was filmed on mobile phones as the terrorist waited for police demonstrate a further shift away from centralized terrorist organizations to lone wolf terrorism. This kind of terrorism is conducted by self-motivated independent individuals. The attacks in Boston and London show how difficult it is to prevent lone wolf terrorism.
Successful U.S. counterterrorism measures against al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula and in Pakistan, combined with failed democratic transitions in the Middle East and North Africa, have contributed to the shift of global terrorism to Africa. Domestic terrorist groups such as Boko Haram, which means “Western education is sacrilege,” in northern Nigeria, collaborate with al-Qaeda. The Syrian civil war, chaos in Iraq following the U.S. withdrawal, and the disintegration of law and order in Libya have strengthened terrorism, most notably the group called the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS), which claimed credit for the November 13, 2015 terrorist massacre in Paris.
The growing use of armed drones for targeted killings of suspected terrorists in Yemen, Pakistan, Somalia, Niger, and elsewhere raises many controversial issues. Drones are effective weapons against terrorists. Even though they kill fewer civilians than alternative methods, the loss of innocent civilian lives undermines their use.
Edward Snowden’s leaking of documents showing extensive spying on Americans as well as people and governments around the world by the National Security Agency (NSA) as part of America’s counterterrorism strategy raised global concerns about the basic right to privacy. It also has far-reaching consequences for U.S. security and foreign policy.
Osama bin Laden, widely viewed as the embodiment of global terrorism, was killed by U.S. Special Forces on May 1, 2011, in Pakistan. Despite this significant development, the war on terrorism continues. Think about how the escalation of global terrorism affects our daily lives. This global problem is now virtually inseparable from pe.
2. E
ncouraging signs in
the battle against
ISIS come from
both Syria and Iraq
where the extremist groups
have been suffering heavy loss-
es and losing territory. ISIS has
even been under attack in their
strongholds of Mosul, Fallujah,
and Raqqa. It is also believed
that the U.S-led airstrikes have
significantly harmed ISIS’s fi-
nancial sources1
.
Despite all this, ISIS is still a
powerful group that has major
outreach capabilities. The lead-
ership is not contemplating the
option of surrender, nor does
the international community
ever intend on inviting them to
the peace negotiations.2
One worrying detail is that
insurgent groups tend to resort
to increased terrorist attacks
when they are weaker. History
has shown this through the ex-
amples of al-Shabab in Soma-
1 “ U.S- led airstrikes putting a financial
squeeze on the Islamic State”. The Washing-
ton Post. April 2nd, 2016.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/
national-security/us-led-strikes-put-
ting-a-financial-squeeze-on-the-islamic-
state/2016/04/02/e739a7be-f848-11e5-a3ce-
f06b5ba21f33_story.html
2 “White House goes into damage control
on Syria peace talks”. Politico. January 4th,
2016.
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/01/
iran-saudi-arabia-us-syria-217318
lia3
and al-Qaeda in Iraq that
resorted to using indiscrimi-
nate terrorism as a response
to losing territory and power.
Knowing that it is much more
difficult to join the fight in
Syria and Iraq, ISIS followers
could instead resort to attacks
on European soil.
At the end of May 2016 a
person claiming to be a spokes-
man for ISIS called upon fol-
lowers to launch attacks on
US and European targets. One
can see the change of narrative
here: instead of calling upon
the followers to join the fight in
Syria and Iraq, and only if they
can’t, to instead attack targets
in Europe as done in the past.
The alleged ISIS spokesperson
said “The smallest action you
do in their heartland is better
and more enduring to us than
what you would if you were
with us4
”.
In the same time, the U.S
3 “Al-Shabaab shows weakness, not strength
in Somalia theatre bombing”. The Guard-
ian. April 4th, 2012. http://www.theguard-
ian.com/commentisfree/2012/apr/04/
al-shabaab-somalia-theatre-bombing
4 “Islamic State calls for attacks on the West
during Ramadan in audio message”. Reuters
Canada. May 22nd, 2016.
http://ca.reuters.com/article/topNews/id-
CAKCN0YC0OG
Department of State has is-
sued a Europe Travel Alert that
is valid until August 31 20165
.
In the statement US citizens
are particularly advised to be
cautious around major events,
tourist sites, restaurants and
means of mass transportation.
Analysts do however claim that
there is no specific threat, but
that the alert is probably a re-
sponse to “signals and a lot of
noise”6
.
WHAT ABOUT
MACEDONIA AND THE
BALKANS?
The question that will come to
the minds of many people in
Macedonia is where it leaves
Macedonia and the region and
how safe we really are. Al-
though the Balkans is not a pri-
mary target for attacks for ISIS
and other extremist groups, it
is impossible to entirely write
off the possibility for attacks
in the near future.
Data shows that there are
now several hundred returnees
from Syria and Iraq in the re-
5 “Europe Travel Alert”. U.S Department
of State – Bureau of Consular Affairs. May
31st, 2016.
https://travel.state.gov/content/passports/
en/alertswarnings/europe-travel-alert.html
6 “Travelers watch out- but there’s no specif-
ic threat”. BBC. June 1st, 2016.
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-cana-
da-36403960
VOLUME 1
COMMENTARY
3. gion. If we consider Thomas
Heggehamer’s theory that “one
in nine volunteers who went
overseas to fight then returned
and became involved with mil-
itant groups”7
it adds up to a
number of several dozen indi-
viduals who might engage in vi-
olent activities. In Macedonia
alone, 72 fighters have already
returned from the battlefields8
.
And this is before taking into
account the possibility of hun-
dreds of individuals who have
not travelled to Syria and Iraq,
7 “Europe could feel the backlash from
jihadist conflicts”. BBC. November 30, 2013.
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-
east-25155188
8 “Иванов: Граѓаните да бидат спокојни,
институциите успешно се справуваат со
предизвиците (Ivanov: Citizens should be
calm, institutions are successfully dealing with
the challenges)”. Macedonia Information
Agency. March 22, 2016.
http://mia.mk/mk/Inside/RenderSingle-
News/288/133090587
but have been indoctrinat-
ed into violent ideas, and just
might strike near home.
If the ISIS leadership does
indeed decide to take the fight
even further into Europe and
list the Balkans as a valuable
target, it will be extremely diffi-
cult to prevent the attacks, as it
takes only one successful plot
to cause great damage. Anoth-
er challenge could be the drain
of capacities of the MOI by
the migrant and political crisis.
On top of that, there are many
soft targets in Macedonia that
offer a high return in casualties,
a fact that could be exploited
by jihadist groups.
Since the Paris attacks on
November 13th 2015, the MOI
has increased the level of secu-
rity in the country, with their
main focus being securing vital
objects in the Macedonian cap-
ital of Skopje. However, MOI
cannot be present at all possi-
ble targets at all times.
Finally, we come to the is-
sue of just how much freedom
of movement we are willing to
give up in order for increased
security. Not many would, and
rightfully so, approve of se-
curity checks at every possi-
ble target like malls, theatres,
cinemas, and restaurants. This
would be very time-consum-
ing, cause frustrations and is
also against the principle of
freedom of movement. It also
does not guarantee the preven-
tion of all possible attacks.
In conclusion, despite the
fact that there seems to be no
immediate threat, institutions
must remain vigilant and pre-
pared for the worst-case sce-
narios.
FILIP STOJKOVSKI,
RESEARCH FELLOW,
FOREIGN AND SECURITY POLICE PROGRAM
fstojkovski@analyticamk.org
www.analyticamk.org