This document provides advice for betting on college basketball games during conference tournament season and March Madness. It discusses several factors to consider when handicapping games, including a team's recent performance and margin of victory, depth of the team's bench, effects of travel on performance, and the potential for higher seeds to overlook lower seeds. Conference tournaments are seen as opportunities for teams that underachieved during the regular season to mentally regroup.

1. BETTING MARCH
MADNESS
Pure genius advice from OffshoreInsiders.com

2. BASKETBALLHANDICAPPER
 Winning in March is not just about the NCAA Tournament. The
NIT and now especially the uber consolation tournaments CIT, and
CBI actually have offered countless motivational discrepancies that
even the minor bowls don’t present with such frequency.
 However a “March of Dimes” must begin with triumph in the
conference tournaments.
 Here is an inventory of parameters to look for:

3.  Dictionary: Very high on our list of Golden Rules is how a neutral game is
exactly that. It is neither a home game nor a road game for either team. Ever time I
hear a tout spout to weigh road performance more heavily when handicapping a
neutral court game, I realize there will always be suckers around to finance the
bookmakers for us.
 “Home court advantage” is accurately named. It is more often a home crowd
can kick start the home team than rattle the road squad. That being said, as teams
are becoming more freshmen laden, “road court disadvantage” is more of a factor
in recent years, especially at the beginning of the season.

4. VEGAS INSIDER
 However, that is part of the point. Young teams have the highest
upside and improve as the year goes on, especially on the road. Veteran
teams are generally good road bets early, but just as their value rises their
road prowess reaches the point of diminishing return.
 So weighing road splits more heavily in March is not only a myth but
often the polar opposite of reality as home/road splits is generally less
predominant as the season progresses. Neutral does not equal road and
the truth grows deeper as the season does.

5. BRACKET PICKS
 However neutral does not always mean completely neutral: One
of the variables that we muse upon greater in recent years is how far each
team travels for their “neutral” games. This is actually true for road games
in all sports, but overlooked even more for neutral.
 Travel is the often-unnoticed aspect of playing away from home. It’s
not just about dealing with enemy crowds. Though this has proven to be
most affective in college bowl games, it is always a strong component to
conference and NCAA Tournament handicapping.

6. SPORTS ODDS
 And not all goes out the window after the first round, even if
round two or three is a meeting of two squads who each traveled
further than the team they conquered the day(s) before.
 Travel can have a cumulative effect. It certainly does not top our
list of metrics, so one should neither be disillusioned by first day
results at a location nor ignore the underappreciated consideration.

7. BETS
 New beginnings: So often you hear us quote the famed Yogi-ism of “90 percent of
the game is half-mental.” Teams that underachieved especially late in the year recurrently
mentally regroup come conference single elimination time. It’s time to get those
preseason coaches polls and contrast them to the regular season final standings. If season
ending injuries or players being kicked off the team are not rationale for the major
divergence, bet the differentiation.
 Bubble favorites: Teams that need an impressive run in the conference playoffs leave
nothing to chance against the inferior teams. We have found no real value going for or
against “bubble” dogs, but actually the more points the capricious team is laying, the
stronger stake they are.

8. NCB LOCKS
 Read the previous day’s boxscores, literally “in-depth:” Every now and then the
obvious is true. When teams are playing two, three or even four consecutive days, depth and
how many minutes their key players have played is inestimable enlightenment. Nagging injuries
are magnified. Most of the year, the Adrian Barbeau Theory wins: top-heavy squads are the best
to bet on. In conference tournaments, we analyze the depth of each squad.
 Yes this even applies to large favorites in first round games. Such squads are focused on the
bigger picture of winning their tournament and are much more likely to ration their star player
minutes if the opportunity arises. Hence fading big favorites with thin benches may be fool’s
gold during most regular season situations, it gains prominence in the conference tournaments.

9. BIG DANCE BETTING
 Look Ahead Does Not Always Apply to Both Teams: Though
obviously in games leading up to the championship game, even the
winners of a big upset have to play the next day. However, lower seeded
teams don’t have the luxury of looking ahead.
 Again, I will use the term, “big picture.” In most circumstances the top
seeds are more likely to look ahead to what may be progressively better
opponents each round. Pay close attention to the dynamics of higher
seeds, many of whom are vulnerable to overlook the day one foe.

10. NO. 1 HANDICAPPER
 Recent Play is Bigger Than Ever: One of our Golden Rules is
amplified in conference playoffs and that is when it comes to weighing
recent play, “recent is not defined by X-number of games, but X-number
of days.
 Around Christmas, where many teams take long breaks, how a team
played in their previous three games is not nearly as foretelling as in
March when they are playing three games in three days, four in four, etc.

11. LOCK TIPS
 When a team is in a groove, the sooner they get on the court the
better. Squads in a slump can use off time for mental, strategical, and
physical adjustments and rest. This is where recent (using the above
definition) Margin of Cover (or sweat barometer) really comes into our
handicapping more than ever. As much as we love the KenPom power
ratings and still use them well into March, they don’t take into account the
diverse intangibles that are unique to conference tournament time.

12. WHO COVERS
 Don’t sleep, surf: In the competition to get your business,
sportsbooks are posting lines earlier and earlier and in fact are at a
disadvantage in that they can’t use the prescriptions discussed here
when making the line. Hence key overlooked information comes in
the morning papers and on the teams’ own sites. Sharp information
is much more prevalent in the conference celebrations than the
regular season or even the Big Dance.

13. JOE DUFFY’S PICKS
 Top sports handicapper picks are at OffshoreInsiders.com