2. Cogency test
For the 1st requirement of cogency: formal correctness
The sub-argument (53)(52) is correct, because if (53) is true, it is an
example of an event has unforeseeable consequences.
The sub-argument (54)(52) is correct, because if (54) is true, it is an
example of an event has unforeseeable consequences.
The sub-argument (52)+(55)(56) is correct, for if (52) and (55) are both
true, (56) must be true.
The sub-argument (56)(68) is correct, if it is impossible to determine
any given instance of suffering is unjustified or not, then we can’t
conclude that there is at least one unjustified evil, therefore, we can’t
prove unjustified evil exists.
The sub-argument (68)(69) is correct, for generally speaking, we can’t
prove something by uncertainty.
Therefore, the overall argument is formally correct.
3. For the 2ndrequirement of cogency: the truth of premises
(53)is questionable. Although it is well known as “butterfly effect”, it is
not been proved.
(54) is questionable. It is not always true that a single word can give a
great impact to someone’s life.
Therefore, at least a premise is questionable, the argument is not
cogent.
