1. What Will It Take?
Mark Lautman | mark@marklautman.com
2. 1. How much influence do really we have over New Mexico’s
economic future?
2. Are we doing as much as we can?
3. If so, will it be enough?
4. If not, what is is it going to take?
5. Why are we miscalculating?
?
2
3. Economic development is a new, faster, more
complicated game that we can’t play with a
Twentieth Century program mix and planning effort.
3
4. The Community Economics Lab
The CELab is a 501(c) 3 non-profit think tank, focused on
new ways to do economic and workforce development in
a labor and capital constrained economy.
8. REPLACEMENT
How many
economic base
jobs are you
losing?
3 Higher Attrition Rates
LIFE CYCLE
Companies don’t last as long;
globalization and new business
models.
ARTIFICIAL
INTELLIGENCE
Computers that
talk, think and
create.
AUTOMATION
Machines doing the work of
humans.
8
20. Ten Reasons Why You Are Miscalculating
1 Failure to plan - metrics.
2 The shift from W2 to freelance.
3
Higher attrition rates: life cycle,
artificial intelligence and automation.
6
Reversal of chi – the qualified
workers decide.
7
Speed and the new planning
horizon - 5 is the new 20.
8
Rising fixed costs & falling
risk/reward ratios.
4
Zero sum labor dynamics –
retirement, birth rate and education.
5
The phantom workforce – skills
mismatch and cliff effects.
9
End of government largess,
beginning of more transparency.
10
Leadership and leadership
succession.
16
21. The New Mexico Jobs Council (NMJC) formed in 2013
when New Mexico legislative leadership approached The
CELab to develop a framework and a process to help
them determine what it would take to return the state to
full employment by 2024.
The New Mexico Jobs Council
17
22. Goals of the Jobs Council
1. Develop a framework, process and criteria for sorting out economic
development priorities.
2. Assess what it will take to get back to pre-recession employment
levels.
a. How many jobs?
b. Where could they come from?
c. What factor of production gaps must be cured?
d. What specific programs, projects and policies changes are
indicated?
3. Develop a slate of legislative initiatives.
18
23. What will it take to get back to pre-recession
employment levels in 10 years?
1. How many economic base jobs do we need?
2. Where will they come from?
3. What factors of production gaps will have to be cured?
4. Who will do it? How much will it cost?
5. How will we know it is working?
19
24. 2015-2016 Program of Work
1. Legislation Development – Appropriations sensitive > New
legislation.
2. County/Regional Assessments - Completion, validation and
refinement.
3. Economic Base Program Program Theaters – Definition and
Assessment.
4. Database and Dashboard Development – Refinements.
5. New Program Development – Staff Augmentation, Solowork,
Workforce Model.
6. Accountability System Development – Framework, source data and
metrics .
7. Develop options for institutional succession.
20
25. Wk
1 Wk
2 Wk
3 Wk
4 Wk
1 Wk
2 Wk
3 Wk
4 Wk
1 Wk
2 Wk
3 Wk
4 Wk
1 Wk
2 Wk
3 Wk
4 Wk
1 Wk
2 Wk
3 Wk
4 Wk
1 Wk
2 Wk
3 Wk
4 Wk
1 Wk
2 Wk
3 Wk
4
Council
Meetings Jun
9
SF
jul
6
ruid
oso
Aug
10
Dem
Sep.
14
ABQ
Oct.
23
SF
nov.
16
SF
New
Legistlation
with
Appropriations
New
Legislation
Without
Appropriations
Complete
2014-‐15
County/Regional
Assessments
Validaition
and
Refinement
Sessons
Program
Theaters
EDOs
Government
I>E
and
Independent
Independent
Visitor
Retirement
Others
Dashboard
System
Development
Refine
Database
Data
Review
Program
Development
Solo
Work
Staff
Augmentation
Workforce
Gap
predictive
test
Performance
metrics
longitudinal
and
attribution
metrics
Institiution
Succession
Plan
2015-‐2016
Jobs
Council
Preliminary
Work
Plan
Tech.
Team
Meeting Statewide
Review System
Design Overhaul
Tech.
Team
Meetings Statewide
Report
Report
Report
Report
Tech.
Team
Meetings State
Wide
MR
COG NC-‐EP
COG NW
COG SC
COG
Tech.
Team
Meetings State
Wide
December
Soccorro SE
Cog SW
COG
June July August September October November
21
27. Attributes of an Effective Planning Process
1. Clarity: Achieves clarity about the nature and scale of the challenges and what can be
done.
2. Consensus: Achieves consensus among increasingly diverse and contentious set of
stakeholders.
3. Actionable: Instructs specific concerted action.
4. Measurable: Establishes a system for tracking results and measuring ROI.
5. Accountable: Establishes a responsible organization(s) and individual(s)
6. Iterative: Can be quickly and easily updated or adapted to new insights, conditions or
opportunities.
7. Customizable: Can work for any sized community or region.
8. Integrated: Aggregated with region and state efforts.
9. Comprehensive: Includes all significant program approaches and factor solutions.
10. A convener: a respected (powerful) leader or institution must be willing to convene the
process 23
28. Attributes of an Effective Planning Process
11. Fast: Moves quickly from assessment to plan to action.
12. Simple and logical: must bring needed order, logic and common sense to the
discussion.
13. Transferable and teachable
14. Scalable: Able to expand to include large numbers of stakeholders
15. Open and transparent
16. Coherent: Establishes a common nomenclature, framework, time frame and rules etc.
17. Intuitive: Operates with a lack of perfect data.
18. Institutionalized: Permanently funded, staffed and managed free of electoral political
influence.
19. Collaborative: Works with, contributes to and helps order the planning efforts of other
entities.
20. Proprietary: the assessment, plan and accountability system is owned by the
stakeholders. 24
29. Process Requirements
1. Focus: Economic base job creation
2. Conveners: Speaker of the House and Senate President Pro Tem
3. Participants: Diverse, balance essential
4. Process: CELab
5. Methodology : Wisdom of Crowds, Clinical Consensus -Refined
6. Criteria: Unanimity
7. Data Platform: Tri-level data calculator and dashboard
25
30. • Councils of Government
• Economic Development Districts
• Workforce Districts
228,749
283,327
887,077
89,216
63,228
268,495
239,087
Population of Individual COG
1-NW
2-NC
3-MR
4-EP
5-SW
6-SE
7-SC
New Mexico’s 7 Economic Regions
26
31. Coherence:
Agree on the
theoretical
construct,
nomenclature and
process
Economic
Predicament:
Agree on the
number of new,
economic-base
jobs that must be
created
Economic
Sector
Selection:
Agree on a ranked
list of the sectors
with the highest
potential for
generating the
economic-base
jobs
Geographic
Distribution &
Resource
Gaps:
Agree on areas of
the statein which
the new,
economic-base
jobs are most
likely to be
created
Policy and
Program
Implications:
Agree on job
creation program
and policy
initiatives needed
to deliver the job
numbers
NM Jobs Council Process
27
33. “We have taken something incomprehensible
and made it really simple.”
http://nmjc.thecelab.org/
http://nmdashboard.thecelab.org
The Dashboard
29
34. 1. How many economic base jobs
do we need?
2. Where will they come from?
3. What factors of production
gaps will have to be cured?
4. Who will do it? How much will
it cost?
5. How will we know it is
working?
?
30
35. Factor of Production Gaps:
1. Qualified Labor: 102,296 Jobs
2. Bandwidth: 81,227 Jobs
3. Tax and Regulatory: 76,891 Jobs
Statewide Assessment
Organic,
44,616
Current
capacity,
55,910
Capacity
Needed,
66,136
Attrition,
80,457
Unempl
oyment,
17,075
Pop.
Growth
,
42,157
-‐
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
180,000
Jobs Needed Jobs Estimated
Possible
Theater Jobs
% Program
Reliant Organic
Program
Reliant
Employer 49,744 85% 7,462 42,282
Fed Gov 38,035 75% 9,509 28,526
E&E 21,089 85% 3,163 17,926
Visitor 21,082 50% 10,541 10,541
Solo 11,920 25% 8,940 2,980
Film/DM 11,281 100% - 11,281
Startup 8,771 70% 2,631 6,140
Ag 4,739 50% 2,370 2,370
Total 166,661 44,616 122,046
Current
Capacity 55,910
Capacity
Needed 66,136
Unemployment 17,075
Growth 42,157
Attrition 80,457
Total New E-Base Jobs over 10
Years 139,690
Estimated Potential 166,661
Surplus (Shortage) 26,971
31
36. Northwest Region
Counties: Cibola, San Juan, McKinley
Factor of Production Gaps:
1. Qualified Labor: 4,555 Jobs
2. Marketing/Lead Generation: 750 Jobs
3. Bandwidth: 575 Jobs
Unemployment 1,539
Growth 5,299
Attrition 9,515
Total New E-Base Jobs over 10 Years 16,353
Estimated Potential 6,855
Surplus/(Shortage) (9,498)
Organic,
1,028
Current capacity,
760
Capacity Needed,
5,067
Attrition,
9,515
1,539 ,
Unemployment
Pop.
Growth ,
5,299
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
Jobs Needed Jobs Estimated
Possible
Theater Jobs
% Program
Reliant Organic
Program
Reliant
Employer 1,850 85% 278 1,573
Fed Gov 1,510 75% 227 1,284
E&E 1,500 85% 225 1,275
Visitor 750 50% 113 638
Ag 575 50% 86 489
Solo 400 25% 60 340
Startup 200 70% 30 170
Film/DM 70 100% 11 60
Total 6,855 1,028 5,827
760
5,067
Current Capacity
Capacity needed
32
37. North Central Region
Counties: Santa Fe, Taos, Colfax, Rio Arriba, San Miguel, Mora, Los Alamos
Factor of Production Gaps:
1. Capital: 12,500 Jobs
2. Qualified Labor: 7,075 Jobs
3. Bandwidth: 3,810 Jobs
Unemployment 2,329
Growth 5,116
Attrition 10,171
Total New E-Base Jobs over 10 Years 17,616
Estimated Potential 26,780
Surplus (Shortage) 9,164
Organic, 9,596
Current capacity, 1750
Capacity Needed, 15,434
Attrition,
10,171
Unemployment,
2,329
Pop.
Growth ,
5,116
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
Jobs Needed Jobs Estimated
Possible
Theater Jobs
%
Program
Reliant Organic
Program
Reliant
Fed Gov 7,730 75% 1,933 5,798
Visitor 7,700 50% 3,850 3,850
Employer 4,180 85% 627 3,553
Ag 2,200 50% 1,100 1,100
Solo 2,130 25% 1,598 533
Startup 1,230 70% 369 861
Film/DM 810 100% - 810
E&E 800 85% 120 680
Total 26,780 9,596 17,184
1,750
15,434
Current Capacity
Capacity Needed
33
38. Factor of Production Gaps:
1. Qualified Labor: 40,800 Jobs
2. Building Inventory:13,500 Jobs
3. Marketing & Lead generation: 10,600 Jobs
Unemployment 6,504
Growth 15,222
Attrition 36,761
Total New E-Base Jobs over 10 Years 58,487
Estimated Potential 83,800
Surplus/(Shortage) 25,313
Organic,
21,665
Current
capacity,
20,360
Capacity
Needed,
41,775
Attrition,
36,761
Unemployment,
6,504
Pop.
Growth ,
15,222
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
80000
90000
Jobs Estimated
Possible
Theater Jobs
%
Program
Reliant Organic
Program
Reliant
Employer 30,400 85% 4,560 25,840
Fed Gov 20,700 75% 5,175 15,525
Film/DM 10,000 100% - 10,000
Solo 8,500 25% 6,375 2,125
Visitor 7,000 50% 3,500 3,500
Startup 5,100 70% 1,530 3,570
E&E 1,500 85% 225 1,275
Ag 600 50% 300 300
Total 83,800 21,665 62,135
Current Capacity 20,360
Capacity Needed 41,775
Mid-Region
Counties: Bernalillo, Torrance, Sandoval, Valencia
34
39. Factor of Production Gaps:
1. Capital: 1,022 Jobs
2. Leadership: 611 Jobs
3. Qualified Labor: 484 Jobs
Unemployment 165
Growth 1,194
Attrition 3,388
Total New E-Base Jobs over 10 Years 4,747
Estimated Potential 2,330
Surplus (Shortage) (2,417)
Organic,
695
Current
capacity
, 1,190
Capacity Needed,
445
Attrition,
3,388
Unemployment, 165
Pop.
Growth ,
1,194
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
Jobs Needed Jobs Estimated
Possible
Theater Jobs
%
Program
Reliant Organic
Program
Reliant
Fed Gov 648 75% 162 486
Employer 642 85% 96 546
Visitor 445 50% 223 223
Ag 283 50% 142 142
E&E 226 85% 34 192
Solo 40 25% 30 10
Startup 30 70% 9 21
Film/DM 16 100% - 16
Total 2,330 695 1,635
Current Capacity 1,190
Capacity Needed 445
Eastern Plains Region
Counties: Union, Harding, Curry, Quay, Guadalupe, De Baca, Roosevelt
35
40. Factor of Production Gaps:
1. Tax and Regulatory: 826 Jobs
2. Capital: 667 Jobs
3. Qualified Labor: 337 Jobs
Unemployment 966
Growth 928
Attrition 2,296
Total New E-Base Jobs over 10 Years 4,189
Estimated Potential 3,037
Surplus (Shortage) (1,152)
Organic,
1,021
Current capacity, 80
Capacity
needed,
1,936
Attrition,
2,296
Unemployment,
966
Pop.
Growth ,
928
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
Jobs Needed Jobs Estimated
Possible
Theater Jobs
%
Program
Reliant Organic
Program
Reliant
Employer 847
85% 127 720
Visitor 505
50% 253 253
E&E 501
85% 75 426
Ag 446
50% 223 223
Fed Gov 352
75% 88 264
Solo 320
25% 240 80
Startup 51
70% 15 36
Film/DM 15
100% - 15
Total 3,037
1,021 2,016
Current Capacity 80
Capacity Needed 1,936
Southwest Region
Counties: Luna, Grant, Hidalgo, Catron
36
41. Southeast Region
Counties: Lincoln, Otero, Chaves, Eddy, Lea
Factor of Production Gaps:
1. Housing: 6,650 Jobs
2. Bandwidth: 1,860 Jobs
3. Leadership: 1,435 Jobs
Organic,
5,049
Current
capacity,
20,280
Capacity
Needed,
1,887
Attrition,
8,150
Unemploy
ment,
684
Pop.
Growth ,
8,685
-
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
Jobs Needed Jobs Estimated
Possible
Theater Jobs
% Program
Reliant Organic
Program
Reliant
E&E 16,050 85% 2,408 13,643
Employer 6,940 85% 1,041 5,899
Fed Gov 1,710 75% 428 1,283
Visitor 1,680 50% 840 840
Startup 425 70% 128 298
Ag 275 50% 138 138
Solo 90 25% 68 23
Film/DM 45 100% - 45
Total 27,215 5,049 22,167
Current
Capacity 20,280
Capacity
Needed 1,887
Unemployment 684
Growth 8,685
Attrition 8,150
Total New E-Base Jobs over 10 Years 17,518
Estimated Potential 27,215
Surplus/(Shortage) 9,697
37
42. Factor of Production Gaps:
1. Qualified Labor: 6,800 Jobs
2. Leadership: 5,222 Jobs
3. Capital: 1,735
Unemployment 4,889
Growth 5,715
Attrition 10,176
Total New E-Base Jobs over 10 Years 20,779
Estimated Potential 16,644
Surplus (Shortage) (4,135)
Organic,
4,687
Current
capacity,
4,540
Capacity
Needed,
7,417
Attrition,
10,176
Unemployment,
4,889
Pop.
Growth ,
5,715
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
Jobs Needed Jobs Estimated
Possible
Theater Jobs
% Program
Reliant Organic
Program
Reliant
Fed Gov 5,385 75% 1,346 4,039
Employer 4,885 85% 733 4,152
Visitor 3,002 50% 1,501 1,501
Startup 1,735 70% 521 1,215
E&E 512 85% 77 435
Solo 440 25% 330 110
Ag 360 50% 180 180
Film/DM 325 100% - 325
Total 16,644 4,687 11,957
Current Capacity 4,540
Capacity Needed 7,417
South Central Region
Counties: Socorro, Sierra, Dona Ana
38
43. Economic Base Program Theaters
39
Theater Job Estimates Activities
Employer 43,944 Major employer Recruiting, retention & expansion
Federal 38,035 Federal agencies, healthcare, higher education
Visitor Driven 38,035 Tourism, hospitality, transit services
Retirement 21,000 Affluent retirement strategies
Extractives & Energy 11,689 Mining, oil & gas, power plants, wind, solar, bio
Solos 11,920 Freelancers, 1099 contractors, independents
Film & Digital Media 11,281 Film, TV, games
Start Up 8,771 Innovation to Enterprise, start ups, tech transfer
Agriculture 4,739 New crop development, food processing, forestry
Export Substitution ??? Produce locally instead of importing
Total Jobs Estimated 151,461
Total Jobs Needed 139,690
Difference +11,771
44. Jobs per Theater Solo
Retirement
Startup
Visitor
Employer
Film/DM
Fed Gov
Ag
E&E
Import Sub
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
Organic
Program
Reliant
Economic Base Job Creation Theaters
40
45. Employer Recruitment,
Retention & Expansion
1. Jobs Potential: 49,744 - 29% of total economic base jobs estimated
statewide. Program Reliant: 37,000.
2. Major Economic Sectors: Back Office, Exported Services, Integrated
IT/Cyber, Manufacturing.
3. Procuring Agents: EDCs, Local Government, NM Partnership, NMEDD.
4. Program status: Underfunded and understaffed.
5. Major FOP Gaps: Workforce, Marketing/Sales, Real Estate.
6. FOP Gap solutions: Lack critical diagnosis and planning: Weak Metrics.
7. Legislative Action: Staff Augmentation, Coop Marketing, Incentives Support.
8. Definition: Procuring economic base jobs by attracting new companies and
helping existing companies survive and grow. Jobs in this theater take place
in commercial office and industrial facilities, and the employees are hired as
W2 employees.
41
46. Federal Government
1. Jobs Potential: 38,035 – 23% of state-wide economic base job estimate.
2. Major Economic Sectors: Most federal departments, healthcare, and
university research.
3. Procuring Agents: Congressional delegation, NMEDD, EDOs, Local BRAC
groups.
4. Program status: Unorganized, uncoordinated piecemeal efforts.
5. Major FOP Gaps: Marketing and sales apparatus, tax and regulatory climate,
real estate.
6. FOP Gap solutions: Develop an opportunity set for each economic district
and formally organize theater operations state-wide.
7. Legislative Action: Matching fund for Epscor projects.
8. Definition:
42
47. Extractives and Energy
1. Jobs Potential: 21,089 – 13% of statewide economic base job estimate.
2. Major Economic Sectors: Oil & Gas, mining, power generation & transmission
3. Procuring Agents: EDOs, industry associations, local government
4. Program status: Active but lacks organization as a state-wide job creation
theater. Local program efforts include recruiting of suppliers to extractive
industries and recruiting and retention of major energy production projects.
5. Major FOP Gaps: Workforce, workforce housing, transportation and
transmission
6. FOP Gap solutions:
7. Legislative Action:
8. Definition: Creating jobs in the extraction and processing of raw materials
from the land for export and the production and transmission of energy for
export out of state.
43
48. Visitor
1. Jobs Potential: 21,082 – 13% of state-wide economic base job estimate.
2. Major Economic Sectors: Hospitality, Travel, Tourism, Arts and Culture, Sports
and recreation
3. Procuring Agents: Hospitality Association, CVBs, Chambers of Commerce.
4. Program status: Well organized, strong metrics.
5. Major FOP Gaps: Net new economic base job growth requires incremental
increases to state tourism budget and scale increases in local capacity.
6. FOP Gap solutions:
7. Legislative Action: Increase in state Tourism Marketing Budget.
8. Definition: Jobs with salaries paid from the local sale of goods and services to
visitors from out of state. Excludes travel by New Mexico Residents.
44
49. Solowork
1. Jobs Potential: 11,920 – 13% of state-wide economic base job estimate.
2. Major Economic Sectors: Includes virtually all economic sectors.
3. Procuring Agents: Potential agents include SBDCs, incubators, accelerators,
community colleges.
4. Program status: No Program effort currently, pilot programs ready in several
communities.
5. Major FOP Gaps: Marketing, sales and concierge support platforms are
required, tax and regulatory, and bandwidth.
6. FOP Gap solutions: Develop a state-wide pilot program, special tax class for
qualified solo economic base workers, broadband planning.
7. Legislative Action: Funding a 5 year Solowork Pilot.
• Definition: Solo economic base workers perform full time work from a home
office, workshop, studio, or mobile platform. While they may work for a
corporation, they do not work in a centralized workplace. They must also be a
resident taxpayer of the state earning twice the poverty rate with half of their
revenue derived from out of state work. 45
50. Film and Digital Media
1. Jobs Potential: 11,281 – 7% of the state-wide economic base job estimate.
2. Major Economic Sectors: Film and digital media
3. Procuring Agents: New Mexico Film Office, local film offices, studios
4. Program status: Well organized
5. Major FOP Gaps: Incremental increases in the state rebate program are
required to generate new economic base jobs.
6. FOP Gap solutions: Gradually raise the cap.
7. Legislative Action: None at this time.
8. Definition: Recruiting and developing the production of feature films,
independent films, television, regional and national commercials,
documentaries, animation, video games, webisodes, mobile applications, and
post production work indented for commercial exploitation and exhibitions
out of state.
46
51. Startup
1. Jobs Potential: 8,771 – 5% of the state-wide economic base jobs estimated.
2. Major Economic Sectors: All sectors.
3. Procuring Agents: Incubators, accelerators, SBDCs, enterprise funds,
4. Program status: Active, growing but unorganized as a job creation theater,
lacks metrics
5. Major FOP Gaps: Capital, tax and regulatory
6. FOP Gap solutions: Remove out of state restriction on venture capital tax
deduction, eliminate capital gains on rollover VC investment, matching
funding for skilled program staff.
7. Legislative Action:
8. Definition: The focus of this theater is entrepreneurs that intend to become
economic base employers. Program efforts in this theater are focused on
raising the metabolic rate of innovation and entrepreneurial activity and the
conversion of that activity into an increasing number of new economic base
employers.
47
52. Agriculture
1. Jobs Potential: 4,739 – 3% of state-wide economic base job estimate.
2. Major Economic Sectors: Food and fiber production, processing marketing
3. Procuring Agents: NMSU, Extension service, EDOs, production associations
4. Program status: Active but unorganized as theater, lacks a job creation focus
and metrics
5. Major FOP Gaps:, Tax and regulatory, marketing and sale apparatus
6. FOP Gap Solutions: Theater requires more definition and organization
7. Legislative Action:
8. Definition: Procuring economic base jobs by attracting, expanding and
creating enterprises that grow, process and distribute food and fiber.
48
53. Import Substitution
(non- economic base jobs)
1. Jobs Potential: Unexplored – potentially significant.
2. Major Economic Sectors: All sectors.
3. Procuring Agents: Chambers of commerce, EDOs, Mainstreet.
4. Program status: Unexplored.
5. Major FOP Gaps: TBD
6. FOP Gap solutions: TBD
7. Legislative Action: TBD
8. Definition: Leakage prevention. New induced non-economic base jobs can be
added to a regional economy by expanding or developing new local product
and service providers that allow local non-economic base businesses and
residents to spend their money locally instead of outside the region. New
induced jobs are additive to the economy as long as the economic base is
growing and the new induced jobs being created do not result in destruction
of existing jobs or enterprises.
49
54. Factor of Production Gaps Summary
Statewide
Factor
of
Production
Gap
Assessment
CapitalInfrastructure:
W
ater
&
Sew
er
Infrastructure:
Bandw
idth
Infrastructure:
Transm
ission
Infrastructure:
Roads
&
DrainageInfrastructure:
Pow
er
&
Gas
Infrastructure:
Public
Safety
Transportation
Qualified
W
orkforce
Tax
and
Regulatory
Issues
Land
InventoryBuilding
Inventory
M
arketing
and
Lead
GenerationSales
and
Deal
StructuringLeadership
Housing
Statewide
Jobs
at
risk 55,736 2,295 65,427 16,667 1,725 6,650 150 11,570 80,696 61,691 1,235 35,408 40,386 21,360 25,297 13,936
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
Jobs
Impacted
Statewide
Jobs
at
risk
50
55. Division of Responsibility for Job Creation
98,407
21,082
11,281
20,691
-
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
EDCs (ERR&E, Ag, E&E,
Fed Gov)
Tourism NM Film Office No Program
Jobs by Program
51
56. Theater
10 Year
Potential
% share
of state
10 yr goal
Program
Reliance
potential
% Share of
state program
reliant
Org/Planning
Status
E-Base
Focus
Is
there a
plan?
E-Base
Metrics
Major FOP
Gaps
Procuring
Agents
Action
Required
1. Employer 43,944 29% 37,352 33%
Poorly
Organized,
Under
capacity
Mixed Maybe Weak
Workforce,
Marketing/Sales,
RE
EDCs, Local
Government, NM
Partnership,
NMEDD Discipline
2. Fed Gov 38,035 25% 28,526 25%
Unorganized
but
programmable
N/A No N/A Marketing/Sales,
Tax Climate
EDCs, Local
Government,
Federal Organize
3. Visitor 21,082 14% 14,757 13%
Well
organized,
Growing
capacity
High Yes Strong
Marketing/Sales
Tourism,
Hospitality Plus up
4. Solowork 11,920 8% 5,960 5%
Unorganized
but
programmable
TBD No TBD
Program
Development,
Tax &
Regulatory No Program Innovate
5. Energy &
Extractives 11,689 8% 5,845 5%
Unorganized
difficult
to
program
High No TBD
Housing
EDCs, Local
Government Housing
6. Film/ Digital
Media 11,281 7% 11,281 10%
Well
organized,
Growing
capacity
High Yes Strong Capital, (Real
Estate) NM Film Office Plus up
7. Startup 8,771 6% 6,140 5%
Poorly
Organized
TBD No TBD
Capital, Tax and
Regulatory
Incubators,
Accelerators,
SBDCs Discipline
8. Agriculture 4,739 3% 2,370 2%
Unorganized
difficult
to
program
High No TBD
Natural
Resources,
Workforce, Tax
& Regulatory
EDCs,
Agricultural
estate service Organize
9. (Retirement) ~21,000
Unorganized
but
programmable
TBD No TBD
Program
Development,
Tax &
Regulatory,
Marketing/Sales No Program Innovate
10. (Import
Substitution)
Unorganized
but
programmable
TBD No TBD
TBD TBD Discipline
Theater
Impact
Evaluation
Matrix
Potential
Impact Theater
Status Action
IndicatedPotential
Program
Impact
Program Theater Assessment Summary
52
57. State Assessment Summary
• Economic base job needs 140,000 – 14,000 year.
• 3 Region’s estimated potential for more economic base jobs than they project
they will need.
• Program planning, organizational capacity and infrastructure.
• The first cut of job creation program capacity shows every region except SE
dramatically short of program resources.
• 4 Region’s estimated fewer economic base jobs.
• Averaging 14,000 – 12,000 are program dependent.
• EcD IQ too low to get traction.
53
58. 1. How many economic base jobs do we need?
140,000
2. Where will they come from?
Employers, Federal Government, Extractives & Solos.
3. What factors of production gaps will have to be cured?
Workforce, Bandwidth, Tax and Regulatory & Capital.
4. Who will do it? How much will it cost?
Local plans are required - See legislative agenda
5. How will we know it is working?
AccountabilityAct
?
54
59. 2015 Jobs Council Legislative Agenda
Initiative Amount Comments
LEDA $50M October Meeting
Partnership $2M October Meeting
EDO Staff Augmentation $4.5M Matching
Co-op Advertising $2M Matching
Solowork $500K October Meeting
Broadband $300K
Engineering Plan and Priority
Infrastructure
WorkforceGap Study $125K Pending-Pilot, CHE
Middle School Physics $250K
Workkeys Assessment $35K NMDWS Offset
Metrics and Accountability $150K Draft bill in development
55
60. 2015 Council Supported Legislation
Initiative Amount Action
JTIP $10M Support EDD
NMSU STEM Program $408K Support NMSU
Tourism Marketing Funding $4.7M Support Tourism
Rapid Workforce Deployment $1.25M Support Higher Education
Public Private Legislation - Support Legislation
Rural Infrastructure Tax Credit - Support Legislation
Scenic Byways Program $500K Support Tourism
Technology Maturation $2.5M Support Legislation
Workers Comp Evaluation $500K Support Legislation
56
61. Local Economic Development Act - LEDA
• Description: Increase scale of closing resources for major economic base job
creation projects. Increase funding of the existing LEDA program to keep New
Mexico competitive in terms of available closing funds to land major economic
development projects.
• Appropriation: Maintain at $50m passed last year.
• Status: No new funds requested for this year. Plans are to replenish as the
fund is drawn down.
57
62. NM Partnership Funding
• Description: Increase marketing and case management for major economic
base job creation projects. Provide additional funding of the New Mexico
Economic Development Corporation (New Mexico Partnership) in order to
increase marketing and business development of the state to attract and
expand additional economic base employers.
• Appropriation: $2 Million
• Action: Draft in House Bill 2
58
63. Co-op Marketing Funding
• Description: Re-build the pipeline of prospective economic base job creation
project opportunities. Funds the New Mexico Economic Development
Department to match regional and local efforts to generate qualified economic
base business leads for target industries.
• Appropriation: $2 Million
• Action: To be moved by Co-chairs
59
64. Local Staff Augmentation Matching
• Description: Fund provides matching state grant funds to regional and local
economic development organizations to hire professionals to expand job creation in
their area.
• Appropriation: $4.5M
• Passed, Needs funding
60
65. Broadband Infrastructure Solutions
• Description: Conduct a comprehensive study and report on available assets,
capabilities and gaps, design and engineering needs, gap solutions, necessary
funding sources, etc., needed to erase the competitive disadvantage of current
broadband inadequacies across the state. Complete broadband infrastructure
upgrades at high priority rural locations
• Appropriation: $950K
• Action: Draft bill in development
61
66. Solowork Pilot Programs
• Description: Develop a new statewide program approach for creating economic
base jobs. Establishes a new economic base job creation program focused on
solo and independent workers. The matching fund would be used to create a
minimum of two local pilot programs, one rural and one urban or suburban.
Solo and independent work, aside from being one of the fastest growing
sectors in the New Mexico economy, may be the only opportunity available to
many of the state’s rural communities to create economic base jobs.
• Appropriation: $500K
• Bill updated, run through HB2
62
67. Workforce Gap Analysis
• Description: Analyze statewide workforce needs. Conduct analysis of current
and future workforce needs through the study of job openings, employer
surveys and focus groups, WorkKeys and O*Net data, as well as from data in
available forecasting models. Workforce being the key factor of production in
advancing New Mexico’s economy, understanding of areas of worker and skill
shortages will be vital.
• Appropriation: $125K
• Action: Bill updated, run through HB2
63
68. Middle School Physics
• Description: Better prepare students for the future New Mexico workforce. The
bill appropriates $250,000 to fund a pilot for a middle school physics program
developed by See the Change USA a 501 (c) (3) to conduct a three-year pilot
program in five of the poorest performing middle schools around the state. The
program requires a one time $50,000 fee for the curriculum modules and
teacher training. This program will assist New Mexico communities in helping
them produce local workforce with the skillsets needed to sustain their
economies in the future.
• Appropriation: $250K
• Action: Bill updated, run through HB2
64
69. Workkeys Assessment
• Description: Support NMDWS program of assessing job applicants to
determine their mathematics and reading skills necessary to successfully
accomplish occupational work requirements
• Appropriation: $35,000
• Action: Draft Bill
65
70. Metrics and Accountability
• Description: Establish program for ongoing collection and reporting of
economic base jobs, standardize and report incentives, and calculate project
ROI.
• Appropriation: $150K
• Action: Draft Bill in development
66
71. Job Training Incentive Program
• Description: Expand the scope of the existing training program. Enhance
current on-the-job training programs for newly hired New Mexico residents to
better supply the needs of the target sectors of the New Mexico economy.
• Appropriation: $10M Non-reverting
• Action: Support Economic Development Dept.
67
72. NMSU STEM Program
• Description: Support a STEM entrepreneurship and diversity outreach and
retention program
• Appropriation: $408K
• Action: Support NMSU
68
73. Tourism Marketing
• Description: Expand the marketing and promotion of New Mexico as a tourism
destination
• Appropriation: $4.7M
• Action: Support Tourism
69
74. Rapid Workforce Deployment
• Description: Establish community college program to provide immediate
training for workers needed by new or expanding companies
• Appropriation: $1.25M
• Action: Support Dept. of Workforce Solutions
70
75. Public Private Legislation
• Description: Provide legal means for public and private sectors working
together on broadband and other appropriate initiatives.
• Appropriation: None
• Action: Support in Legislature
71
76. Rural Infrastructure Tax Credit
• Description: Tax credit for designated sector and projects
• Appropriation: None
• Action: Support in Legislature
72
77. Scenic Byways Program
• Description: Promotion of area attractions
• Appropriation: $500K
• Action: Support Tourism Dept.
73
78. Technology Maturation
• Description: Facilitate tech transfer from national laboratories to small
businesses.
• Appropriation: $2.5M/year for 5 years.
• Action: Support in legislature.
74
79. Workers Compensation Evaluation
• Description: Evaluation of various workers compensation program aspects
• Appropriation: $500K
• Action: Support Dept. of Workers Compensation
75
80. To alter economic development trajectory of the state,
local community leaders will have to devote an order of
magnitude more time and resources to thinking through,
planning and measuring their economic development
efforts.
Bottom
Line
76
82. Accountability Act - The Commitment Device
• Local and Regional job creation efforts will have to scale up dramatically over
the next ten years if we are to have any chance of making these numbers.
• Scaling to this new level of thinking planning and investing will require, what
behavioral psychologists call, a commitment device.
• In this case that commitment device is a more comprehensive and rigorous
accountability system.
• It is the linchpin to any strategic effort.
• Without a rigorous and comprehensive system of metrics, analytics and
reporting in place, most community leaders and their program managers will
be unwilling to go through the considerable effort or bear the risks of
78
83. The rationale for a comprehensive and rigorous
metrics, analytics and reporting system…
1. Help bring much needed clarity and order to state and local economic
development deliberations.
2. Required to comply with GASB Rule 77.
3. Serve as a commitment device to:
• Compel and reward investment in prescriptive planning efforts.
• Attract the scale increases in investment and policy support required.
• Help ensure execution of plans and policies.
4. Help stakeholders, leaders, managers and staff gauge progress against
program goals.
5. Improve public perception of economic development investments and ROI.
6. Help de-politicize economic development initiatives.
79
84. Constraints and Concerns
1. Additional reporting costs and inconvenience on already over regulated
employers.
2. Additional reporting costs to state and local governments.
3. Additional reporting costs to economic development organizations.
4. Confidentiality of employers.
5. Degrading of the ability of state and local job creation agencies to negotiate
and manage the client relationship.
6. Further politicization of economic development and workforce issues.
80
85. Accountability System Components
1. Uniform framework for legal and administrative coherence
• Comprehensive; all theaters, all levels
• Conceptual clarity; economic base,
• Definitions; transactions,
• Segmented by; theater, factor of production
• Jurisdictions; state, regional, local
• Negotiating principles; but for, moral, strategic, tactical, ROI
2. Classes of metrics
• Economic base source data and analytics;
• Incentives compliance and ROI analytics; by incentive, by theater.
• Program performance state and local; calibrated to plans.
3. Building Commitment
• Set measureable program recruitment and expansion goals.
• Identify major factor of production gaps.
• Define, fund and implement strategies and reporting. 81
